The Latest from Iran (13 September): Lull --- Storm?

NEW Iran: English Translation of Judiciary Report on Karroubi Allegations
NEW Iran: The Soroush Letter to the Supreme Leader
Transcript: Israel and Its (Lack of) Options on Iran
The Latest from Iran (12 September): Reassessing
Iran: Is the Supreme Leader Killing Off the Opposition?

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1820 GMT: The Norooz newssite, as well as the main site (see 1550 GMT), is down. Mowj-e-Sabz is up again.

1800 GMT: Will He or Won't He? Rumours and chatter throughout the day on whether Hashemi Rafsanjani will lead this Friday's prayers on Qods Day. Entekhab News is one example of the line that Rafsanjani has not withdrawn.

1608 GMT: President Ahmadinejad has appointed Mohammad Reza Rahimi, a vice president during his first four-year term, as his First Vice President.

1600 GMT: Rafsanjani Breaks Cover? If this story is true, this could be an indication that the former President is still allied with the Green movement in the challenge to the Government: the Karroubi website Etemade Melli reports that Hashemi Rafsanjani will resign all his positions, which include head of the Expediency Council and of the Assembly of Experts, if Mehdi Karroubi is detained.

1550 GMT: Both the Green movement website Mowj-e-Sabz and the reformist site Norooz, which reported it was under heavy cyber-attack from the Iranian authorities, appear to be down. Etemade Melli (Saham News) is still up.

1330 GMT: Beheshti Freed. The Kalameh website of Mir Hossein Mousavi broke the news that Mousavi's chief advisor, Alireza Beheshti, has benn freed after five days in detention. Other reports indicate that members of Imam Khomeini's family met Beheshti soon after his release.

1210 GMT: Threats Everywhere. In addition to the warnings being thrown at Mehdi Karroubi, Fars reports that the President's office will sue Grand Ayatollah Yusef Sane'i for allegedly insulting Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: “Following an insulting speech made in a ceremony by Mr Sanei against the president, the president’s legal office has prepared a complaint against him. The complaint will be submitted to the Special Court for Clergy."1200 GMT: Trials Resume. Agence France Presse reports, from the Islamic Republic News Agency, that the fifth Tehran trial of post-election detainees will be held Monday morning. Some Iranian reporters will be allowed into the court, but foreign media will be barred.

IRNA is also headlining the opinion of "a group of activists, politicians, and MPs" that, as no one has judicial immunity, Mehdi Karroubi should be tried for false claims of detainee abuses.

1100 GMT: A report from an Iranian activist via Twitter that Dr. Ebrahim Amini, a board member of Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Melli party, has been arrested in Shiraz. If true, the regime has now arrested three members of the Reform Committee that was investigating detainee abuse.

1050 GMT: Controlling the Enquiry? An interesting article in Etemad, summarised in Reuters, points both to the regime's efforts to show it is doing something about claims of detainee abuse and to keep the initiative out of the hands of Mehdi Karroubi.

Mohammad-Kazem Bahrami, head of the Armed Forces' Judicial Organization, said that 90 people had filed complaints of mistreatment at the Kahrizak detention centre.
He added that there had been further arrests, although he gave no details on the identities or positions of the suspects: "Until Wednesday, seven people who were accused of being involved in the case have been detained."

There was no mention in the article of Karroubi, who has been pressing the cases of abused detainees.

1025 GMT: Apologies for the glitch (my error, rather than technical, I'm afraid) which took this page down for an hour.

0910 GMT: We've followed up on a story earlier this week by posting a summary of the open letter from Iranian political philosopher Abdolkarim Soroush to the Supreme Leader.

0830 GMT: A late start for us this morning, as we recover from a week of tension. Very little emerging from Iran this morning, with the best of the Western media such as The New York Times focusing on yesterday's rejection by the three-member judiciary panel --- for "lack of evidence" --- of Mehdi Karroubi's allegations of detainee abuse.

One piece of breaking news: Mamosta Borhan Ali, the Sunni Friday Prayer leader in Sanandaj in Kurdestan Province was assassinated on Saturday night.

Transcript: Israel and Its (Lack of) Options on Iran

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Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor has told Reuters that "superpowers had to do stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons either militarily or through further sanctions". Yet what may be most striking in the interview is that, beyond that tough assertion, Meridor is unwilling or unable to pursue a specific line because of the positions of other countries. He cannot endorse military operations; he cannot condemn the engagement of President Obama, and his "concerted intensive action" is hostage to the support of China and Russia.

Meridor's statement:

The time is now. There is no more time to waste, and that's not only the Israeli perspective, it's much more general.

I remember that in 2003 they suspended enrichment because the Americans looked strong enough after the invasion of Iraq.

The clock is ticking, in the sense that when nothing is done (to dissuade Iran), something (enrichment) is done all the time. Time is relevant and of the essence here. How long? I don't want to go into that here...The trend is clear.

I'm not speaking of military action. I don't want to give any word that would be misinterpreted. I intentionally put this issue in its broader context. Of course there is a special case in Israel because Iranian leaders say, not only (President Mahmoud) Ahmadinejad, that Israel is not legitimate and should not exist, and one sees the building up of weapons, not to speak of the meaningful involvement in terror all over the place... One should not close one's eyes but we are in a way fortunate that this is not only Israel's problem.

Our policy is a good one and it worked well. And we are known to be quite a responsible country. We are in a unique position. There are formulas we use all the time (to address this issue). I will not say what we have, if we have or we don't have (nuclear weapons), but the fact is that the alarm in the Arab world is related to the fear that Iran may have it.

It [Iran's having a nuclear weapon] is not in the distant future. When they decide exactly this or exactly that is a good question but it's not the main question. The trend is clear and if you want to be an owner of nuclear weapons or have the capability of being a nuclear power it changes the balance of power.

I can't say that [the U.S. engagement's being called as a "waste of time"], because the other option didn't work either... If it works, it works. What I think we look for is the result, whether you do it with soft spoken language or with a heavy stick. I'd rather do it with a positive (method), but that doesn't always work.

It's important there is an understanding, a will, a capability, if all join hands, to enforce a concerted intensive action -- which is not military action, I speak of political and economic measures -- that may be taken if the Russians and Chinese can get on board.

If there is no perception of a concerted effort the other countries who are concenred with the possibility of a nuclear Iran could develop their own in the meantime... Then you will find a different world, one harder for a superpower to manage.

I don't think Russia has an interest in a nuclear Iran. Maybe they want to be considered as a partner, not to be told what to do. I am not for or against the Russians. I am saying they are important elements. Their have an important role in the world. Communism might be dead. Russia is not.

A Palestinian State: Previewing the Mitchell Talks in Israel

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When Salam Fayyad, the Prime Minister of the West Bank, said in August that a de facto state could be founded in two years. the first reaction came from Israeli Foreigm Minister Avigdor Lieberman : "The Palestinians’ unilateral initiatives do not contribute to a positive dialogue between the parties."

Less than a month has passed and Lieberman may count himself lucky not to be hearing his President's words as Shimon Peres tours Africa. According to Peres, Salam Fayyad is a "Palestinian [David] Ben-Gurion," the first leader of modern Israel.

Meanwhile, according to Haaretz, a senior diplomatic source said on Saturday that the proposal of the European Union High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, for the United Nations to accept Palestine as a full member within two years, was made with the support at the highest levels of the U.S. administration. Palestinian and European Union sources told Haaretz that Israel's talks with US special envoy George Mitchell, who arrived in the country on Saturday night, will initially focus on determining the permanent border between Israel and the West Bank. Although Palestinians want to draw temporary border lines before the final agreement, a mutual determination on borders next week would constitute an "early recognition of Palestine" by Israelis.

Despite obstacles such as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's non-negotiable position on the status of Jerusalem and on the right of return for Palestinian refugees, both sides are expected to find common ground through the exchange of land rather than a focus on the pre-1967 borders.

In the event a final agreement on the settlement freeze issue next week, a tripartite meeting is expected in New York between the head of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, Netanyahu, and President Obama at the UN General Assembly this month.

Latest Iran Video: The Rooftop Chants Continue (11 September)

The Latest from Iran (12 September): Reassessing

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The nightly rooftop chants of "Allahu Akhbar" (God is Great) have not stopped since June, but after the drama of yesterday, they were renewed in intensity:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIYXZjHIWR0[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (12 September): Reassessing

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Rooftop Chants Continue (11 September)
NEW Iran: Is the Supreme Leader Killing Off the Opposition?
NEW Transcript/Snap Analysis: Washington’s Welcome to Iran
Iran: The Complete Translation of the Supreme Leader’s Friday Prayer Address
Iran: Josh Shahryar’s Snap Analysis of the Supreme Leader’s Speech
The Latest from Iran (11 September): Prayers and Politics


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2010 GMT: The Facebook page of Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi features a new poster (left) with this message: "Following a new wave of censorship, our main focus will be on Green Qods Day. This will be a day to protest the assault against us, show our presence, and support Green leaders like Karoubi who have always supported us."

1955 GMT: An EA correspondent offers a reminder of the significance of whether or not Hashemi Rafsanjani shows up to lead this Friday's prayers on Qods Day: "Rafsanjani has led the Friday prayers on Qods Day for the past few years. It would be yet another change in tradition --- as well as yet another ominous proof of the "change" that has befallen on Iran after the elections --- should he miss this year's sermon. I guess the Rafsanjani dance will kick off tomorrow or Monday, with the usual whirlwind of rumors that will be quashed, one way or the other, on Tuesday or Wednesday."

1920 GMT: The Imam Khomeini Institute, which has been under recent pressure from the Government including the cancellation of Ramadan ceremonies, has tried to fight back. It has filed a legal complaint against the pro-Government newspaper Kayhan for slander and defamation.

1910 GMT: Karroubi Stays Visible. One of the main points of our morning analysis was that Mehdi Karroubi now occupied a vital position at a key period for the opposition movement. The cleric has not hesitated, despite the hard line of the Government. In an interview with the Italian newspaper La Stampa, he said, "If the Imam Khomeini was alive, he would have annulled these elections (and) condemned the violence and murders. What happened immediately after the elections, the arrests of thousands of members of the opposition, the murder of dozens of people and the acts of violence ... constituted a veritable coup d'etat."

1510 GMT: Kayhan Kalhor, the composer and violinist, was arrested at Imam Khomenei Airport on Friday and was released from detention on Saturday.

1410 GMT: Repeating --- Rafsanjani's Stand? Raja News claims confirmation that the former President will not be leading prayers this Friday on Qods Day. However, Ayande News reports that Rafsanjani's office has denied the withdrawal.

1405 GMT: The CNN website still hasn't noticed that the Supreme Leader led Friday prayers.

1400 GMT: Rafsanjani Makes His Stand? If Hashemi Rafsanjani does not lead prayers this Friday on Qods Day, his opportunity for a political move may come four days later. The Assembly of Experts will convene for its regular meeting on 22 September.

1330 GMT: The Green movement's Mowj-e-Sabz is claiming that the National Security Council has banned newspapers from reporting on "Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Presidential Election".

1325 GMT: Reports that reformist activist Mohammad Reza Jalaeipour has been released from detention on $200,000 bail.

1305 GMT: The Day's First Major Development? The three-member judiciary panel investigating Mehdi Karroubi's claims of abuse of detainees has declared that they are false. In a letter to the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, they have also raised the possibility that Karroubi could be subject to charges of libel and slander.

1245 GMT: A bit of news on the slowest day since 12 June (what more than one outlet has called "the lull before the storm"). Hayedeh Tabesh, a member of the 1 million signatures campaign, was summoned to the Ministry of Intelligence for questioning. More than 50 members of the campaign have been arrested and/or put on trial.

0900 GMT: Playing catch-up during a slow period, we've noted an interesting turn of events (given the Western media's representation of the latest Iran proposals on its nuclear programme), "Washington’s Welcome to Iran".

0830 GMT: Although we're on limited service today (celebrations with relatives from the US), the lack of updates is more to do with no news coming out of Iran after yesterday's dramatic developments. We have posted an analysis of the Supreme Leader's steps, including his Friday prayers address and the reported arrest order for Mehdi Karroubi, as well as the opposition's possible response, in a separate entry.