Latest on Iran (18 February): Watching on Many Fronts

2120 GMT: Author, translator and journalist Omid Mehregan has been released from detention.

2100 GMT: So all our watching on many fronts is overtaken by the "Iran Might Be Getting A Bomb" story. Little coming out of Iran tonight; in contrast, every "Western" news outlet is screaming about the draft International Atomic Energy report on Iran's nuclear programme. (Funny how each, like CNN, is implying that it "obtained" an exclusive copy.)

1830 GMT: Political Prisoner News. "Green media" pull together reports that we carried last night: 50 detainees were released, including Shahabeddin Tabatabei, member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front and head of youth in support of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami, Parisa Kakaei of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, student activist Maziar Samiee, and Khosrow Ghashghai of the Freedom Movement of Iran.

An activist adds that Ardavan Tarakameh was released on bail this evening.

NEW Iran Document: Today’s Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (18 February)
NEW Iran Analysis: The "Now What" Moment (Farhi)
NEW Iran: Getting to the Point on Detentions & Human Rights (Sadr)
NEW Iran: Another Rethink on Green Opposition (Ansari)
Iran Analysis: Ahmadinejad Stumbles; “Karroubi Wave” Surges
Iran Nuke Shocker: Clinton/White House “Tehran Not Building Weapons”
Iran Document: Fatemeh Karroubi “My Family Will Continue to Stand for the People’s Rights”
The Latest from Iran (17 February): Psst, Want to See Something Important?

1745 GMT: Here We Go. Reuters proves our hypothesis within five minutes with "IAEA fears Iran may be working to make nuclear bomb":

The U.N. nuclear watchdog is concerned that Iran may now be working to develop a nuclear payload for a missile, the agency said in a confidential report on Thursday obtained by Reuters....

"The information available to the agency is extensive ... broadly consistent and credible in terms of the technical detail, the time frame in which the activities were conducted and the people and organizations involved," the report said.

"Altogether this raises concerns about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile."

1. The report can't be that confidential if Enduring America got a copy of it off the Internet earlier this afternoon.

2. There is nothing new in the passage cited by Reuters. The IAEA has said repeatedly that information "raised concerns" about a possible military nuclear weapons programme. That is different from saying that the information establishes that Iran is pursuing such a programme.

(1840 GMT: We might as well whistle in the wind. BBC and National Public Radio in the US are following the leader with "UN Nuke Agency Worried Iran May Be Working On Arms".)

Meanwhile, from the other side, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has taken a swing at "Western pressure": "The Westerners say, 'You have a reactor in Tehran and its fuel should be supplied by us, and you should acquire fuel in the way we want, and give us your enriched uranium as well." And Deputy Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar has declared, "If they (Western countries) accept to swap (uranium) simultaneously in Tehran, we will stop the production of 20 percent fuel."

1740 GMT: On the Nuclear Front. Oh, well, you can pretty much put every internal story in Iran into cold storage for 48 hours --- the International Atomic Energy Agency has just released its latest report on Iran's nuclear programme. There's little, if anything, new in substance, but the IAEA's worried tone is likely to feed those who are pushing for tougher action against Tehran. And it most certainly will feed a media frenzy for the rest of the week.

We've posted the conclusion of the report as well as a snap analysis.

1600 GMT: Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (see 1110 GMT). We have posted the English text of the statement from today's two-hour discussion.

1540 GMT: Confirmed. Norway has granted asylum to the Iranian diplomat, Mohammed Reza Heidari, who resigned his post in January .

1515 GMT: On the Nuclear Front. Worth watching --- the Turks are now reporting back to the US after Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's talks in Iran on Tuesday. A Turkish website writes that Davutoglu chatted by phone with Hillary Clinton on Wednesday night. Davutoglu will meet US Undersecretary of State William Burns today, and he told reporters, "Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will discuss this issue with U.S. President Barack Obama."

1420 GMT: Column of the Day. Roger Cohen of The New York Times asserts that, rather than slapping on further sanctions, US authorities should focus on assisting Iranians with access to and dissemination of information: "With the Islamic Republic weaker than at any time in its 31-year history, fractured by regime divisions and confronted by a Green movement it has tried to quash through force, U.S. sanctions are abetting the regime’s communications blackouts."

1315 GMT: What's Mahmoud Saying? Yet another installment in the tough-guy posturing between the US and Iran. From Press TV's website:

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said the Zionist regime of Israel is so terrified of the Lebanese resistance and people. The Iranian president made the remark in a phone conversation with the Hezbollah Secretary General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, ISNA reported on Thursday.

President Ahmadinejad and Nasrallah also discussed the latest developments in Lebanon and the region. He further praised Nasrallah's latest stance on the Israeli threats. "The Zionists are really terrified of the resistance and people in Lebanon and the region," President Ahmadinejad emphasized. "But they (the Israelis) are looking for opportunities to make up for their past defeats in Gaza and Lebanon as they feel their credibility and existence are in jeopardy."

However, the president insisted, "They don't dare to do anything as they are afraid of the consequences."
[He] further underlined the need for maintaining readiness against any potential Israeli threats adding, "If the Zionist regime want to repeat the same mistakes they previously made, they must be gotten rid of once and for all, so that the region will be saved from their nuisance for ever."

1215 GMT: We've posted a second analysis today, this one from Farideh Farhi, of the "Now What?" moment for Iran after 22 Bahman.

1200 GMT: Purging Iran of Mousavi. Kayhan newspaper has called for the removal of Mir Hussain Mousavi’s name from a road and a College of Art in Khameneh, a city near Tabriz.

1150 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch (and Much More). Key MP Ali Motahhari has not only defended Hashemi Rafsanjani, he has used that defence to launch another attack on the President in an interview with the pro-Ahmadinejad newspaper Vatan-e-Emrooz.

Motahhari said that Ahmadinejad, during the Presidential campaign, had insulted Rafsajani and his family on television in front of an audience of 50 million. Rafsanjani, Motahhari continued, was not given even a few minutes to defend himself when he requested airtime.

Motahhari's conclusion? To gain support, Ahmadinejad is ready to destroy "revolutionary characters".

1110 GMT:The Facebook site supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi has a brief Persian-language report, "Mousavi and [Mehdi] Karroubi met with each other; soon we will talk to the people."

1035 GMT: Britain's Channel 4 is featuring a video interview with a former Basij member who claims he was jailed and abused for refusing to beat protesters.

1015 GMT: We've posted, as a response to those who dismiss "human rights" in the consideration of post-election Iran, a concise comment by lawyer and human rights activist Shadi Sadr.

0920 GMT: Economy Watch. The Islamic Republic News Agency has a budget deficit of 6 billion toman (just over $6 million).

0910 GMT: Habibollah Asgharowladi, a leading "conservative" member of Parliament and one of the proponents of last autumn's National Unity Plan, has declared in the pro-Larijani Khabar Online that some politicians "still have the illusion of having a majority", a likely reference to Mir Hossein Mousavi. Asgharowladi advises, "They should wake up."

Khabar, which is carrying out a two-front political campaign against both Ahmadinejad and the Mousavi/Green Movement, also features the comments of MP Esmail Kousari that "Greens are a gift from the USA". He denounces their attempt to rally and insists that the Revolutionary Guard and Basij military were not involved in security on 22 Bahman.

0900 GMT: Soroush "Hold A Referendum". In an interview with Rooz Online, leading Iranian intellectual Abdolkarim Soroush considers the Islamic Republic and "religious democracy", calling for a public referendum on the system of velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority).

0855 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Add another statement from the Karroubi family. Ali Karroubi's wife Nafiseh Panahi has told Deutsche Welle of the 22 Bahman attack on the Karroubi entourage with pepper spray: "The bodyguards remained mostly around [Mehdi Karroubi] and one of the colleagues noticed that the special guards had captured Ali and were taking him away. Had he not seen this, we would not have know that Ali had been arrested.”

Panahi said that she was told, wrongly, that Ali Karroubi had been taken to Evin Prison: "Honestly I felt better, because we know that Evin is more law-abiding than other detention centers. But when he was released and returned home last night and described his ordeal, we realized what kind of a place he had been kept in.” Panahi added:

After interrogations were over they had told him, to go and thank God that they had asked us to release you, because if you had stayed here over night we would have killed you. His eyes were closed until the last moment. Then they opened the door and throw him onto the street. A car suddenly stopped and took him home.

When Ali Karoubi arrived home, his pants were bloody, his head was cut open, and his hands were so injured that they had given him something to wrap them with. They beat him with a baton, fracturing his arm.

0845 GMT: Your Morning Mystery. In early January, Iran's armed forces loudly declared via state media that they were going to hold a large military exercise in early February to improve "defensive capabilities". Infantry, cavalry, telecommunication, and intelligence units of the Army would be carrying out drills in cooperation with some units of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps.

Well, it's mid-February, and I must have missed the big show. Did it ever take place? Was the Iranian military merely blowing a bit of smoke (and, if so, wouldn't some folks in Iran have noticed the false declaration)? Or were the exercises planned, presumably at a great deal of expense, and then cancelled?

Any answers, especially, from the Iranian Armed Forces, welcomed.

0830 GMT: And A Very Big Diversion. I am not sure the Obama Administration thought through the results of this week's combination of Hillary Clinton's tough talk on Iran "dictatorship" and the visit of Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to Israel.

Here's one Washington may want to note. The Chief of Russia's Armed Forces General Staff, General Nikolai Makarov made his own grand declaration on Wednesday, warning that the US could strike Iran if it gets out of its current commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan.

That's an easy read: Russia reassures Iran, even as it is delaying the sale of S-300 missiles (partly in response to an appeal by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu), that it is watching Tehran's back. And it warns the US Government to chill out a bit on the regional posturing.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHaZzJE7C14[/youtube]

0820 GMT: Meanwhile, beware of distractions, notably those of "Nuclear Watch". Iranian state media throws up the latest diversion, quoting Turkish Parliament Speaker Mehmet Ali Sahin in a meeting with Iranian Education Minister Hamid-Reza Hajibabaie in Ankara: "Turkey will continue its support for the peaceful Iranian nuclear program. All the countries have the right to develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes and Turkey has a clear policy regarding nuclear programs."

That's a cover for the more news-worthy but less convenient episode of Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davugotlu's mission to Iran on Tuesday. With no break-through on a deal for uranium enrichment, it's the minor encounter (what role would an Education Minister have in Iran's nuclear programme?) that gets played up. Loudly.

0800 GMT: A busy Wednesday means that we now have several fronts to cover as the post-election conflict takes on new shapes in Iran.

There's "Economy Watch", which is an umbrella term to cover the renewed "conservative" challenge to President Ahmadinejad. For the moment, it appears that those who have been unsettled for months and who have been planning for weeks to push aside Ahmadinejad will focus on the President's budget and alleged economic mismanagement for their attacks. (There will be a significant exception in MP Ali Motahhari, who is now the point man to put wider demands, all the way to release of political prisoners.)

There's "Rafsanjani Watch". With the Government and its supporters still fearing that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani will "choose a side" and come out in direct opposition to Ahmadinejad, attacks on Rafsanjani have been stepped up in the last 48 hours. This front, for the moment, is likely to be more of a skirmish than an all-out battle: Rafsanjani will take cover in declared loyalty to the Supreme Leader. (Watch out, however, for the activities of Rafsanjani's children, notably his daughter Faezeh Hashemi. Yesterday they expressed open sympathy with the Karroubi family after the attack on Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali on 22 Bahman.)

And there's "Karroubi Watch". Count up the statements and letters to Ayatollah Khamenei in the last five days: Mehdi Karroubi, his wife Fatemeh, his son Hossein, even the mother-in-law of Ali Karroubi. No coincidence for me that a group, the "Sun Army", would try and silence the Karroubis by hacking the website Saham News, which is still rebuilding this morning.

None of this is to ignore the Green Movement as it considers its next moves. We have an analysis by Nazenin Ansari this morning.

Comments

[nomoredespots]

RE: What happened to large military exercise in early February to improve “defensive capabilities”.

They did have the exercise. It was called 22 Bahman, and the game involved looking for green protesters, beating them up and throwing them in jail.

[ange paris]

nomoredespots
Affarin, bravo and thank you ! well said !

[gunni]

from a letter by a member of mothers for peace " After 45 Days in jail ........"

http://freedomessenger.com/?p=1108

[ange paris]

The daily paper " Gardian" has reported that Mojtaba Khamnei, son of SL was the principal responsable of 22 Bahman's crackdown; in fact it's a group of four thugs :
Mojtaba Khamnei
Taeb
Najar
Naghdi

(from daily statement of Amou Mohsen Sazegara :

http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?comments&v=108160639201489&ref=mf

[Catherine]

RE: 0800 GMT: A busy Wednesday means that we now have several fronts to cover as the post-election conflict takes on new shapes in Iran.

Maybe we should add one more - an "Insurgents/minorities watch":

Jundallah warns of attacks against Iran
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates, Feb. 16 (UPI) -- The Sunni insurgent group Jundallah called on its supporters to take up arms against Iran following failed peace negotiations with Tehran, al-Arabiya reports.

Jundallah in a statement received by al-Arabiya said rare talks with the government of Iran broke down because Tehran held off on responding to demands from the group.

"The movement raised basic, legitimate, logical and reasonable demands in order to solve problems in the (Baluchistan) region and continued to negotiate in good faith and committed throughout this period to an undeclared truce and to the halt of all military operations," the group said in its statement.

The Pakistan-based Jundallah said it carried out a June attack at the Ali Ibn Abi Taleb mosque in Sistan-Baluchistan province that killed as many as 21 people and wounded more than 70 others.

Pakistani ties with Iran soured in the wake of an Oct. 19 bombing at a conference between Shiite and Sunni groups in southeastern Iran. Jundallah claimed responsibility for the attack that killed several senior commanders of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The militant group called on minority ethnic groups to join their fight against the Iranian government but said it would give Tehran a "last opportunity" to respond before it resumed its militant campaign.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2010/02/16/Jundallah-warns-of-attacks-against-Iran/UPI-68031266339190/

[Mohsen Sazegara Sunday 4 Bahma]

[...] Latest on Iran (18 February): Watching on Many Fronts | Enduring … [...]

[Catherine]

Does this article say that former Iranian diplomat Heydari was granted asylum in Norway?
http://www.radiofarda.com/archive/news/20100218/143/143.html?id=1961125

[Arshama]

Catherine,

Yes, it does. Heydari, who has joined the Greens and launched a campaign, inviting his colleagues to withdraw from this brutal regime, was granted asylum. He has been warmly received by Iranian expatriates, as he underlined several times on VOA.

Thank you for these useful links and all the others, you posted in the recent days.
As to “Insurgents/minorities watch” and “Conservative critics watch”, I fear, we have to start numbering these "watchs" to keep track of them. These two would be number 4 & 5, may be there are other watches ticking ;-)

[Mahmoud Ahmadinejad]

0920 GMT: Economy Watch. The Islamic Republic News Agency has a budget deficit of 6 billion toman (just over $6 million).
Our economy is turning around and will be robust quite soon. We do not worry about sanctions at all. We can adapt and be totally self-sufficient. Some minor glitches have been corrected. Economic analysis is a difficult subject and our complete 1,000 page report should be read in its entirety before criticizing.
      Important addendum to press conference.
The Gross Domestic Product(GDP) is indeed up 6.9% when you add the new products that have been spun off from the Space & Nuclear Programs released to the public in modified form such as the scaled down home centrifuge and food processor explained below.
     The economy in general has had a slight slow down compared to the glorious highs of the revolution. Leading indictors in the service sector are encouraging: Number of interrogations up 100%; prison construction, even considering the low cost of spartan accomodations, up 100%. Employment for cemetery workers and prison guards has shown dramatic improvement.
     Aside from the nuclear program, we are doing much to reduce our carbon footprint unlike the Western Capitalist countries. To stimulate the economy, we will cover the deserts with prisons, put solar panels on their roofs, and with the power generated by the panels, we will irrigate the desert and turn it into a Garden of Eden where the snakes will bite every protester who is immodest. These plans will work, but are too big and complicated to explain to the lower classes. Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai in consultation with the Chinese will insure that no one makes too much money from it.
     Food prices? Those on fixed incomes have found that tree bark is very nutritious and scientists have said that some bark(such as Willow) contains aspirin which is good for the heart.
     The bread crisis has been solved. There is no need for yeast or baking soda. Every home will be given a scaled-down version of a centrifuge that's been modified with a special chamber and blades for food processing and dough kneading. Subsidized flour and eggs will be supplied. Here is a simple recipe that our superb culinary scientists have developed, and that even Hilary Clinton can verify(detailed amounts upon request):
INGREDIENTS:
Uranium Hexafluoride gas, Sugar, Eggs, Mashed mulberries, Camel's milk, vanilla, flour, salt, chopped walnuts.
DIRECTIONS:
1. Cream the butter and sugar in a cauldron until it is light and fluffy.
2. Call in your friendly neighborhood Basij militaman to beat in some eggs and while he's there, he can also beat your nephew if available to obtain a lock of hair.
3. Mix mashed mulberries, milk, and vanilla. Fold in flour and salt.
4. Pour mixture into the food processor and attach a Uranium Hexafluoride gas canister. This gas will help the flour rise and make the bread good for your teeth. After the food processor has thoroughly aerated the dough and kneaded it, pour it into a baking pan and bake.

[danial]

18:30 GMT...

What does the govt. hope to achieve by arresting dissidents and then have them testifying in court...and then releasing them?

I don't understand this. If you want to suppress anti-govt. sentiment, why release them so soon.

Am I missing something?

[Bijan]

I wonder if this is the result of behind the scene negotions by figures within the establishment (Raffers?) and will be used as a PR stunt to show a sign of the mercy of the regime?

Re: Reuters report..we all knew it was a matter of time, but 5 minutes? Now we all get to look forward to more of the same harsh rhetoric? How does Clinton/State Dept approach given the recent statements regarding AN's announcement on 22 Bahaman?

[Adam]

Danial,

I think the explanation is that the regime is less united and organized than we have come to believe. These sporadic reversals and contradictions are more likely a disoriented, disunited establishment that agrees on little other than hostility to outsiders and internal opposition.

[Pedestrian]

Agh Bahman's mother was released: http://aghbahman.blogspot.com/2010/02/blog-post_18.html

But his father, two sisters and cousin are still in custody.

[Rev. Magdalen]

On the question of whether Secretary Clinton said more than she should have regarding Iran, and the seeming contradiction of her first calling the regime a military dictatorship, then her and Mr. Gibbs rushing to say that the 20% enrichment announced by Ahmadinejad was nothing to be frightened of, and now the release of this IAEA report and the statement by the Russian general, it seems to me it does all have an internal consistency. I would like to make a disclaimer first of all that I am a peace activist and the things that my government may be up to are not necessarily things I agree with, but there is absolutely nothing I can do to stop it, so please nobody yell at me for explaining these things as I see them.

To understand it, you have to go back to 1997 and read this: http://www.newamericancentury.org/RebuildingAmericasDefenses.pdf This explains the mindset of the Bush Administration, and their goals for "protecting America" in the only way they knew how. So much has changed since those days, the rise of the internet, the connectedness of the global community, but for eight long years this plan is basically the rulebook that the Bush Administration went by, regardless of the "fact based community" and their attempts to point out the world was changing.

During those eight years, what seems like pointless wars were engaged in that actually make sense if you realize the ultimate goal was Iran all along. Now American forces are set up in a classic pincer formation on either side of Iran, as the Russian general points out. I don't think he was revealing anything classified, it's just what anybody would think of if they looked at the Middle East map over the past eight years with a military point of view.

But the Obama Administration is composed of people who've been trying for nearly a decade to completely change the course of American policy and get up to speed with the modern real world, where America doesn't just go around imposing its will on everyone and taking people out for looking at us funny. So they had a huge incentive to try to stand down from the PNAC plan and normalize relations with Iran. It would have been a real feather in the Democratic cap if that had worked out, and maybe if Khatami was still president it would have, but it didn't.

All these seemingly contradictory statements reflect the complexities of the situation. In many ways it would be easier for Obama to invade Iran than to not do so. Politically it would increase his popularity enormously, as the moderates and conservatives would side against the liberals and antiwar people and see it as basically taking strong measures against terrorism and protecting our allies. Obama is really putting his own political capital at risk by holding back the hawks in America and among our allies.

The message from Secretary Clinton, the generals, and Mr. Gibbs is really this: It's still US policy that the current Iranian regime does not have the right to even the possibility of having a nuclear bomb, because MAD will not work with them, because they follow a philosophy of suicide attacks. The US will not let these people get this technology, and if it has to intervene militarily, well, it just so happens that conditions are absolutely optimal for that to proceed, due to the paranoia of a previous administration.

However, the troops are tired, the American people are tired, and the regime is not yet on the threshold of actually having a nuclear weapon. So instead of pushing on through with the normal 1, 2, 3, of talks, sanctions, war, the powers that be will stay their hands. For a time. The term "18 months" seems to be floating around. This reprieve will give the people of Iran a chance to recover democracy from the IRGC military dictatorship that has now completely overrun the limited democracy Iran previously had. But the administration wants it to be clear that if that doesn't work out, it's back to the original plan, because the current Iranian leadership simply cannot be allowed any kind of nuclear technology, it's too dangerous to let people who advocate suicide attacks have it.

As I say this is just my humble opinion of what I think I'm meant to get out of my government's recent statements, I could be off base but that's how I understand it.

[Arshama]

Rev. Magdalen,

Thank you so much for your concise evaluation. Finally someone comes clear.
I had much the same impression, even though highly speculative, and recent events are only highlighting what has been going on for years: offers, refusals, negotiations, stalemate -- new offers, new refusals etc.

At the same time the whole situation reminded me of WW II, when the allies decided to attack Germany not until then it was at the bottom, or, to give a better example, the attack on a mostly paralysed Iraq. Meanwhile Iran is not much far from an economic and social paralysis, but still well armed and able to defend its borders.

It is to be regretted that the world powers preferred to watch Iran going down, and to ignore the developing elements of civil society. Instead of supporting them by peaceful means, they intensified their trade relations with this corrupt regime, especially Germany.

On the other hand the Iranian opposition never decided to break with the totalitarian system of the IRI, trying just to "reform", where fundamental changes would have been necessary. Even now most of it's major leaders insist on changes within the system, instead of accepting the realities.

No one can predict, if 18 months are sufficient time for the Green movement to change this fatal course of events. Even in my optimistic eyes it is an extremely brief span to do so, but I still hope that some major domestic incident will stop this regime, heading straight for hell, before it is too late...

[Rev. Magdalen]

Arshama, I am sure there are many many new activists now who will fight with their last breaths to keep anybody from attacking Iran, and maybe we can hold off hostility for a long time. So many people have fallen in love with the proud Iranian people since this past summer! But I think all over the world, it is very hard to hold back war when powerful people are for it, so it's very scary, I wish all these hotheaded politicians would just cool down and give people time have their own say and solve their own problems!

[Catherine]

@ Arshama post 9 (and everyone else of course!)
RE: "I fear, we have to start numbering these “watchs” to keep track of them. "

Yes, and here's number 6 - the "Bomb, Bomb Iran" club, which has been seeking to expand its membership lately. Here's a useful list of the major members at present:
'Who Wants to Bomb Iran?'
Meet the men calling on Barack Obama to launch airstrikes against the Islamic Republic.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/08/who_wants_to_bomb_iran?page=full

[Ali Khamenei]

Re: 18. Catherine,
     Yes, go ahead and bomb my Nuclear Facilities and "make my day"(your Clint Eastwood?). We can arrange another meeting between Podhoretz and Mousavi and Karoubi. After the bombing, we can execute M,k, and their whole family, round up the usual suspects and perhaps exile a few to Casablanca.
     Or should I say if you think us Br'er Rabbit(Chandler): please don't bomb us into the brier patch Br'er Fox(or is that wolf? your American stories and southern dialects are confusing. That Bush was a southerner -- wasn't he?)
Better to follow the prophet Lot (Lut)