Middle East Inside Line: End of Saudi Peace Initiative?, Hamas-Israel-Egypt Triangle, Israel's Fear Industry

Jordan's King on Middle East: Talking to the Chicago Tribune on Thursday, Jordan's King Abdullah warned of violence if no progress is made in restarting Palestinian-Israeli peace talks. Abdullah said:

If we hit the summer and there's no active [peace] process, there's a very good chance for conflict, and nobody wins when it comes to that.

Referring to the Saudi peace initiative, in which moderate Arab and Muslim states would normalize relations with Israel in return for West Jerusalem's complete withdrawal from occupied territory, Abdullah said:

We managed to get an extension of the Arab peace proposal, which terminates in July. There will be a committee meeting of Arab countries in July, and for us as moderate countries, we're going to be challenged by everybody else.

Nothing has happened; Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not interested in peace, so why keep the Arab peace proposal on the table?

As US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that Israel must do more to pursue peace with the Palestinians and to strengthen their institutions or risk empowering militant groups such as Hamas, Abdullah suggested the message to Washington that "Arabs have not played their last card":

I think it's up to us to do a lot of the heavy lifting at this stage.

Why should the burden be solely on Obama and Americans to stick their necks out if both parties are not willing to do enough of the groundwork?

Hamas-Israel-Egypt Triangle: As Hamas ordered the temporary closure of hundreds of smuggling tunnels around the town of Rafah, following Israel’s warning that Hamas was planning to seize tourists in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula), Israel Radio reported on Saturday that Egyptian forces had blown up a smuggling tunnel beneath the border with the Gaza Strip.

Meanwhile, a spokesman for the armed wing of Hamas (the Izz-as-Din al-Qassam brigades), Abu Obeidah, said a prisoner swap was not Hamas' only hope for detainees and that the group had a "strong strategy" for securing their release. He continued:

Useless, absurd peace talks failed to free the prisoners, but our fighters will release them by all means, including armed resistance.

The tension between Israel and Gaza is increasing, especially after Israel Defense Forces shot dead a Palestinian man on Friday. The Israeli army said he was attempting to plant a bomb along the border fence.

Israel's Fear Industry Goes Flat Out: Following an Iranian-hosted international disarmament conference which concluded that “a nuclear weapons-free Middle East requires the Zionist regime to join the Non-Proliferation Treaty," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu underlined the “importance of the threat”:

Over the years, we have learned that the olive branch of peace will be achieved only if we remain strong, only if we are prepared to defend ourselves in the same way our fallen soldiers did at this site. They attacked from this site and other hills not out of lust for war, but out of belief in the righteousness of the goal of defending the Jewish people's one and only country.

President Shimon Peres filled in details:

We are a nation that yearns for peace, but knows, and will always know, how to defend itself.

Israel's strength springs from the strength of its faith, and its greatness emanates from the heroism of its sons. Today we grieve for their loss and are blessed by their legacy.

There are still those who wish to annihilate us. At their head is the autocratic Iranian regime that seeks to impose its rule on the Middle East, silence it with lethal weapons and launch an anti-Israel incitement campaign to deflect Arab fears.

On Monday, Defense Minister Ehud Barak tactically said that “there is no immediate existential threat from Iran” yet defined the challenge subtly as a “< href="http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1164024.html ">the number one potential existential threat to be stopped”:

I prefer to refrain from speculation about the future. Right now, Iran does not pose an existential threat to Israel. If Iran becomes nuclear, it will spark an arms race in the Middle East. This region is very sensitive because of the oil flow. The region is important to the entire world. The fact that Iran is not an immediate threat, but could evolve into one, means that we can't let ourselves fall asleep.

Barak’s summary last week also deserves consideration:

We have the pilots, the ground crews and the best planes in the world. Our air force is the supporting pillar of our operational capabilities against threats from both near and far.

The Latest from Iran (14 April): Ahmadinejad's Struggle

1720 GMT: Ahmadinjead Brings Culture to the World; Students Aren't Sure. The President's adivsor, Somreh Hashemin, has told university students that "world discourse" has changed because of Ahmadinejad's statements --- therefore it now has culture, science, and ethics.

Students at Allameh Tabatabei University may not have been convinced, however, as both reports and video indicate:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKuNhRZsJQA[/youtube]

Iran’s Nukes: Can Tehran and the US Make A Deal?
The Latest from Iran (14 April): Ahmadinejad’s Struggle

1715 GMT: Out of Jail and On-Line. Former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, jailed for several months after the election and selected for a high-profile "confession" in August, has resumed blogging.


1710 GMT: Economy Watch. MP Alireza Mahjoub has predicted a continuation of the poor situation, with 40% inflation, poverty, and economic "suffocation".

1700 GMT: Absence or Protest? Khabar Online reports that one-third of MPs were missing from the Majlis today.

1555 GMT: The Corruption Case. MP Elyas Naderan, the leading Parliamentary critic of First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, has sarcastically thanked the Government for accusing him of making false charges. Naderan assured that he will continue to press the corruption case.

1545 GMT: The Row Over the 15 June Demonstration. Morteza Tamaddon, the Governor of Tehran Province, may have denied his reported statement that the large 15 June protests were authorised. Kalemeh, the website of Mir Hossein Mousavi, however, is persisting with the claim. The website documents Tamaddon's apparent approval of 15 June rally.

1525 GMT: The "Other" Khamenei. Continuing his show of support for reformist leaders, Seyed Hadi Khamenei, the brother of the Supreme Leader, has visited Mohsen Mirdamadi, the chairman of the Islamic Iran Participation Front. Mirdamadi is on temporary release from his prison sentence.

1510 GMT: But China Eases the Pressure? And while there is the ongoing public show over Beijing's will-it-won't-it join international sanctions, this news --- coming as other oil firms stop imports to Iran --- is striking:

State-run Chinaoil has sold two gasoline cargoes for April delivery to Iran, industry sources said on Wednesday, stepping into a void left by fuel suppliers halting shipments under threat of U.S. sanctions....

While others back out, Chinaoil has sold a total of about 600,000 barrels worth around $55 million to the Islamic Republic.

The cargoes were Chinaoil’s first direct sales to Iran since at least January 2009, according to Reuters data. Chinese firms have previously sold through intermediaries, traders said.

1445 GMT: Is Third-Party Enrichment Back On? Reading President Ahmadinejad's bluster in recent days, we asked (1040 GMT), "Is the President actually holding the door open for another push at a deal on uranium enrichment?"

Well, have a look at Iranian state media's presentation of the latest words from the head of Iran's atomic energy organisation, Ali Akbar Salehi, in an interview with a Russian newspaper:

The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) says Tehran would accept a nuclear fuel swap, should the West manage to win back its trust.

The US-proposed UN-backed deal requires Iran to send most of its low-enriched uranium abroad for further processing and conversion into fuel rods for Tehran's research reactor....

Salehi said that Iran had agreed to the IAEA-backed proposal [for third once it was proffered but needed guarantees from the West that it would deliver the fuel in a timely manner — a demand shrugged off by the West.

"We did not refuse. We agreed at once and we agree now. The only problem is guarantees. They suggested that we hand over a thousand pounds of our 3.5% low-enriched uranium. And wait until the entire amount of uranium has been enriched to a level of 20%," he said. 'Suppose we have given all our uranium. But where is the assurance [that we receive the fuel in a timely manner]?"

1430 GMT: The German Squeeze. The German carmaker Daimler has announced that it will
almost entirely cease business in Iran.

Daimler's chief executive Dieter Zetsche  told shareholders, The policies of the current Iranian leadership have compelled us to put our business relationship with that country on a new footing. In general, our business activities with Iran will now be limited to meeting our existing contractual obligations and continuing our cooperation with established customers."

Daimler will relinquish its 30 percent stake in Iranian Diesel Engine
Manufacturing, a subsidiary of Iranian Khodro Diesel.

The move is further testimony that behind the public rhetoric of leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, for state-based sanctions on Iran, the real pressure is coming from the disinvestment of private companies. Daimler's move following the pullout from Iran of two of Germany's largest insurance companies.

1110 GMT: And, cutting through the Presidential rhetoric and posturing, we've posted an analysis by Julien Mercille on the possibility of a US-Iran deal on enriched uranium for Tehran's medical research reactor.

1040 GMT: Blowing Smoke. How many dramatic foreign policy pronouncements do we get to enjoy from President Ahmadinejad this week?

Following his assessment of foreign leaders as "retarded" and his letter to the United Nations implying that the US Government set up 9-11 for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the President has said that "[US President Barack] Obama cannot do anything in Palestine, they won't let him do anything and he has no chance" and there is no possibility of success in Iraq and Afghanistan: "What can he do in Iraq? Nothing. And Afghanistan is too complicated."

So Ahmadinejad concludes, "Mr. Obama has only one chance and that is Iran. This is not an emotional comment, it's scientific."

Which only leaves the question, success with Iran through what? Is the President actually holding the door open for another push at a deal on uranium enrichment?

1000 GMT: The 15 June March. Still some confusion over whether Iranian authorities --- specifically, Morteza Tamaddon, the Governor of Tehran Province --- said they had authorised the mass demonstration three days after the election.

The Green Voice of Freedom repeated the claim of Parleman News, itself taken from an alleged Tamaddon interview with a magazine, that the march "was actually held with legal authorisation". It appears, however, that GVF has not noted Tamaddon's subsequent denial, which we reported yesterday, of the supposed statement. His line remains that the protest, which brought hundreds of thousands and possibly millions on the streets, was illegal.

0245 GMT. Rafsanjani Watch. Make of this what you will: Hashemi Rafsanjani has made a well-publicised visit this week to Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the late Ayatollah Khomeini.

Hassan Khomeini has been under sustained pressure from the Government throughout the post-election crisis over his apparent support for opposition demands,

0240 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Ashura protester Hossein Vahed has received a two-year prison sentence.

0230 GMT: Economy Watch. Khabar Online reports that Iran has "lost" $2 billion on oil fields.

0215 GMT: You Can't Keep A President Down (Or Can't You?).

The President-Parliament battle over economic plans escalates. Ahmadinejad has insisted that all changes will be implemented this year.

Key legislators and Ahmadinejad critics are not being so positive, Ahmad Tavakoli has declared that an agreement between two or three MPs and the President doesn't mean an agreement between the Majlis and the Government. That line is also taken by Elyas Naderan.

How serious is the dispute? Vice President Fatemeh Badaghi has threatened MPs by asserting that immunity for their actions exists only in Parliament.

Middle East Inside Line: US Has No Plan?; Netanyahu Nuclear Snub Played Down; King Abdullah Meets Obama

Washington Has No Plan?: On Friday, responding to reports that Washington is preparing a new peace plan based on decisions reached in Israel-Palestine discussions 10 years ago, National Security Advisor James Jones stated that the Obama Administration has no new proposal but is discussing ways how to jump-start the peace process in the region.

MENA House: How Big Is El Baradei’s Challenge in Egypt?

US-Israeli Ties: Playing down the cancellation of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s attendance at next week's nuclear security summit in Washington, Jones said Israel's delegation, led by Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor, would be "robust". Jones added that relationships between the U.S. and Israel are "ongoing, fine and continuous."


NSC spokesman Mike Hammer declared, "We welcome Deputy Prime Minister Meridor's participation in the conference. Israel is a close ally and we look forward to continuing to work closely on issues related to nuclear security."

Jordan's King to Washington: On Saturday, King Abdullah II of Jordan visited  President Obama to discuss the deadlock in peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.

Israel: Netyanahu "I'm Staying Away from US Nuke Summit"

Looks like the head of at least one nuclear power will not be attending President Obama's high-profile summit in Washington pursuing nuclear security. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has cancelled his trip to the US, reportedly because Egypt and Turkey were going to raise the issue of Israel's nuclear stockpile.

West Jerusalem has never officially admitted that it has atomic weaponry, but former US President Jimmy Carter reveals that the Israelis had 150 devices.

Middle East Inside Line: Palestine Money to Israel?, Obama’s Peace Plan, Netanyahu’s Confession, and More

An Israeli official said:

In the last 24 hours, the Israeli government has learned of various reports from various sources on the intention of several states attending the conference not only to deal with the issue at hand, but to take the opportunity to make a point of grand-standing against Israel and the issue of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The prime minister was dismayed at this, and decided to stick to the Israeli policy that Israel is usually represented at these types of conferences at the professional-ministerial level.

Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor will head the Israeli delegation attending the summit.

The Latest from Iran (8 April): Speeches, Visits, & Pictures

2155 GMT: Break in Service. Apologies for halt in updates today because of extended academic duties.

We'll be back early Friday morning to catch up with all the news and offer analysis.

1355 GMT: You Might Be Catty But Can You Debate Us? Gholam-Reza Mesbahi-Moghaddam, a member of Parliament's Economic Committee has challenged the President to debate him and Ahmad Tavakoli, another high-profile critic of the subsidy/spending plan.

Earlier this week Tavakoli had issued a similar statement, saying Ahmadinejad must follow the Parliament's will.

1345 GMT: Catty Comment of Day. OK, here's the gossip from Rah-e-Sabz:

So key Iranian figures are with the Supreme Leader trying to resolve the Parliament-Ahmadinejad feud over subsidy cuts and revenues. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani says to Ahmadinejad that Parliament is expecting the Government to follow the law. The President is having none of it, however: he says he will not follow what Parliament says and that they "better tell this to the person they congratulated on the evening of the Presidential election".
Whoa. I think that is a reference to the long-standing tale that Larijani told Mir Hossein Mousavi on the evening of 12 June that he had indeed triumphed in the polls.

And that may be why Ayatollah Khamenei then said that in important decisions "we should be united".

NEW Latest Iran Video: Ahmadinejad and the “Non-Crowd” at Orumiyeh
Latest Iran Video: Neda Replaces IRI Flag at Embassy in Netherlands
The Latest from Iran (7 April): Ahmadinejad’s Support?

1340 GMT: Mousavi Meets the Reformists. Mujahedin of Islamic Revolution party members have met with Mir Hossein Mousavi. The take-away line from the meeting --- we hope to have more later --- is Mousavi's declaration that they "must stand up to the ruling group and return to the Constitution" of the Islamic Republic.


1315 GMT: The International Sanctions Dance. President Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev two-stepping today after signing the treaty for reduction of nuclear arms....

Obama predicted there would be "strong, tough” sanctions against Iran in coming weeks, which he has to say to keep the all-out sanctions folks in Washington at bay. Medvedev expressed an openness to the idea, since he doesn't want to be rude to the US, as bargains are being stuck on other fronts. Then, however, he drew line: “smart sanctions” rather than sweeping sanctions,  and protection of Russia’s national interests (i.e., no measures that significantly cut Russian trade).

No change in this dance step....

1030 GMT: Converting the Bad News. Press TV notes the development, which we reported yesterday, that Russia's LUKOil is stopping imports to Iran but races to this assurance:

Speaking on April 3, the head of Iran's Committee for Transportation and Fuel Management said Iran was capable of becoming self-sufficient in gasoline production during the current Iranian year (ending March 20, 2011).

"Iran's gasoline consumption stands at 62 million liters (16.38 million US gallons) per day, of which 45 million liters (11.89 million US gallons) are produced domestically," said Mohammad Rouyanian.

0830 GMT: We have posted a purported video of the audience at the Ahmadinejad speech in northwest Iran yesterday.

0700 GMT: Look Over There! The US is Doomed! Continuing his attempt to focus Iranian eyes on the international front, President Ahmadinejad declared Wednesday night, "The US is so bogged down in a quagmire in Iraq and Afghanistan that it is doomed to be defeated whether it stays or escapes."

0525 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. More than 3,500 people, including international journalists, writers, and activists have written to the Supreme Leader, asking him to release all journalists, writers, and bloggers currently imprisoned in Iran. The initiative was organised by Canadian Journalists for Free Expression.

RAHANA reports that detained student activist Peyman Aref was taken to Modarres Hospital in Tehran after he suffered a heart attack. EA also has reliable information that reformist leader Abbas Mirza Aboutalebi has suffered a heart attack.

Student activist Behrooz Javid Tehrani is in the eighth day of a hunger strike.

University lecturer Rahmatollah Bastani, arrested on 28 March during the funeral of Ayatollah Montazeri’s wife in Qom, has been released on $50,000 bail. Journalist Borumand Rostami of Bistoon has been released on $20,000 bail

0520 GMT: Strange Bedfellows. Iranian state media eagerly embraces former Bush Administration official John Bolton, which may seem a bit unusual since Bolton has called for airstrikes against Tehran. The reason? Bolton bolsters the Iranian Government's line, "New Sanctions Won't Work". (Press TV doesn't mention that Bolton is putting out this message to justify military action.)

0510 GMT: A Very Different Picture and Signal. The image is of Mehdi Karroubi visiting the reformist leader Feizollah Arab Sorkhi, still on temporary release from his detention. Karroubi also saw the mother of Sohrab Arabi, killed 15 June by Iranian security forces.





0500 GMT: Thursday begins with a look at contrasting images and signals. As we noted last night, President Ahmadinejad has tried to turn a visit to Azerbaijan in northwestern Iran into a show of support for his Government, but the pictures are conflicting, to say the least. Fars News uses close-up shots at the stadium and images of crowds rushing Ahmadinejad's car en route to claim a large, enthusiastic turnout. Other pictures circulating on the Internet are not so positive:



An EA correspondent offers an explanation:

The Fars photos do not disprove the set on the Internet. Look at the stadium pictures, all close-ups of the front of the crowd. I have been to Ahmadinejad events --- the people you see are right at the front. There is nothing between them and the President

The crowd mobbing the car, apparently en route to the stadium could be edited. It counts for nothing. All the people behind could be easily photo shopped.