The Latest from Iran (15 April): Accepting Authority?

1315 GMT: We'll be on extended break today, as I'll be lost in the wilds of Georgia in the US. While I make my way back, EA readers --- as they did yesterday --- will be keeping the news and chatter going.

1300 GMT: The Oil Squeeze (cont.). This time, it's exports rather than imports (see 0920 GMT) causing an issue. Khabar Online reports, "From the early 2010 Iran’s oil export has dropped by 378,000 barrels a day compared to 2009 and it will cause a $9.5 billion deficit in the country’s oil revenues this year."

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The Latest from Iran (14 April): Ahmadinejad’s Struggle

Still, Iranian officials maintain a positive line:

Iran's Oil Minister says US-led sanctions against Iran have failed as the country has managed to become self-sufficient in oil production and products.

"International sanctions are not a new issue and we have no problem in dealing with them," Masoud Mirkazemi told reporters on Wednesday after a cabinet session.

1105 GMT: We've posted a separate analysis, "A Note About the Voice of America, NIAC, and the 'Journalism' of The Washington Times". And we also open a window on analysis inside Iran with a piece from Iran Review, "The New Year Challenges".

1055 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. RAHANA claims that Mottahareh Bahrami, currently detained in Evin’s women’s ward, has been sentenced to death, pending appeal, for alleged links to the Mujahedin-e-Khalq "terrorist" organisation. Bahrami was arrested on Ashura (27 December 27), along with her husband, her son and 2 friends.

1050 GMT: The Subsidy Battle. More back-and-forth over the Ahmadinejad fight with Parliament on subsidy reductions and spending. Mohammad Reza Khabbaz of the Majlis' Economics Committee has reiterated that the Government must implement the Parliament-approved subsidy plan; however, Ahmadinejad backer Ali Asghar Zarei has insisted that implementation is up to the President.

On another front, Fereydoun Hemmati of the Supreme Audit Committee has insisted that the budget report for last year cannot be altered. The report has a number of provocative claims, including the "loss" of oil revenues by the state.

1035 GMT: The Corruption Allegations. As the charges of corruption by prominent MP Elyas Naderan against First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi resonate, the "hard-line" newspaper Kayhan has called for an end to fighting amongst "fundamentalists".

1025 GMT: Rumour of Day. Khabar Online suggests that former President Mohammad Khatami will be attending a global disarmament conference in Japan next week. The Japan event comes after this week's nuclear summit, led by President Obama, in Washington and Iran's own gathering this weekend.

0930 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran claims news of an "unknown" prisoner, student and Mousavi campaigner Yasser Yousefzadeh, who has been held incommunicado for more than a month.

Baha’i photographer and musician Artin Ghazanfari, released last week on $50,000 bail, has been re-arrested.

Human rights activists, via A Street Journalist, offers a full summary of developments, including the report that almost 30 detainees across Iran are now on hunger strike.

0920 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Another intriguing report this morning, and one arguably with far more significance than the Iran Parliament's reported retreat....

A company spokesman has said that Malaysia's Petronas is halting oil shipments to Iran. Petronas, one of the largest suppliers to Tehran, has not made any deliveries since mid-March.

0910 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Meanwhile, back to immediate everyday concerns....

Kalemeh claims that the renewed detention of Abdollah Momeni, the leading student activist, was caused by his refusal to cooperate with security and intelligence agents while on temporary release. Other activist and Momeni’s wife, assert that Momeni was pressed to denounce Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and his organisation, Advar-e Takhim Vadat. Momeni was also asked to participate in a series of staged student gatherings.

Momeni's return to prison followed a meeting last week of Mousavi and Advar-e Takhim Vahdat.

0900 GMT: We return from an extended break to find the headline-grabbing story, as framed in The New York Times, "Iran’s Parliament Limits Its Power as a Watchdog".

Nazila Fathi's story, drawn from state media but with no details, claims, "Parliament’s decision...limited lawmakers’ ability to review regulations adopted by the Guardian Council, the Assembly of Experts, the Supreme National Security Council and the Expediency Council." Fathi evaluates, "The decision seemed to be an acknowledgment of the reality that the elected Parliament was often blocked from fulfilling its role as a watchdog over the institutions of state."

It is, to the say the least, a most curious report. Parliament has been embroiled in a heated dispute with President Ahmadinejad over his economic proposals, and the corruption allegations against First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi offer a possible showdown.

We'll look for developments, but for now, is this a Parliamentary retreat or a bit of mischief by some state media "reporters"?

Iran: 4 Ways the US Can Help the Green Movement (Shahryar)

Josh Shahryar writes for The Huffington Post:

Let's face it. On the question of what the U.S. government should do with Iran, the American public is bitterly divided --- less divided than on health care reform, but still very much so. The hawkish side of the spectrum, seeing an enemy in the Islamic regime, advocates a US attack on Iran or at least on its nuclear installations. The dovish side continues to embrace the policy of sympathetic ambiguity; they neither want an attack nor do they have a way of getting the nuclear issue resolved. All the while, the Iranian regime continues to play the West like a fiddle.

The Latest from Iran (3 April): Celebration

It gets interesting, however, when the question of the Green Movement comes up. Both sides generally agree that it is the moral responsibility of the US Government to help it. But while the dovish side expects the US to simply make a few gestures of goodwill, the hawkish side is urging the government to do more than just send Nowruz greetings to the people who are facing detention, torture, and death for demanding their rights.



And with good reason. If the Green Movement succeeds, it will create a democratic nation which would very likely end up being an ally of other democratic nations against dictatorships in the Middle East.

But every time someone speaks up and asks the U.S. to do more than just impose sanctions and to help the Green Movement further, the common criticism is, "Well, what can the US do without interfering in the domestic affairs of a sovereign state?"

Don't be fooled. There are things the US can do to help the Green Movement. Things that would not only help the movement, but at the same time would not be direct interference in the internal affairs of another state. Here's a shortlist of some immediate steps the US can take to help:

*Thousands of Green Movement activists and supporters have crossed the border into Turkey since violence began against them. However, dissidents face a critical situation. Refugees are not permitted to permanently reside in Turkey, but many had hoped for a temporary escape from the regime. These men and women need immediate help in finding a safe haven. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps' long arms are probing for them in Turkey, and regime agents easily cross the border as there is no visa requirement between the two countries.

I met a dissident in January. Through sheer luck and help from concerned Americans, he'd made his way to the US through Turkey after languishing there for over six months and living in constant fear of the IRGC. He spoke of horrific conditions where it was not even safe to take a stroll on the streets because Iranian agents roam Turkish neighborhoods looking for refugees.

The Guardian of London has already published two reports, on 3 December and 17 December, on the intimidation of dissidents in Turkey by Iranian agents. In one case, the dissident was raped. The situation has gotten so dire that Germany has decided to offer asylum to some of these refugees in Turkey, "in a gesture of solidarity against human rights abuses by the Tehran regime".

The US Government can and should follow suit, providing these dissidents refuge on its own soil and putting diplomatic pressure on Turkey to stop the violence and intimidation against them. It can also fund Iranian diaspora organizations like OMID Advocates helping refugees and fighting for their rights.

This will help the Green Movement find a foothold abroad and establish a connection between its leadership and the US Government. At the same time, lives can be saved and minds can be converted. Such an opportunity lies in Turkey, just begging for sympathetic government officials in the US to exploit it.

*The Victims of Iranian Censorship (VOICE) Act was a great first step. But this only goes one way for the most part. It helps broadcast what the West is saying to Iranians, but what about the Iranians shouting out to the West? The US Government can and should further expand funding for Iranian websites that get news out to the public in the US and the rest of the world. News websites like Rah-e-Sabz and Radio Zameneh have proven invaluable sources of information about the events in Iran.

Human rights organizations like RAHANA have been the most accurate doorways to the reality of human rights abuses there. They rely on funding and donations to sustain themselves. Such outlets need nurturing if the Green Movement is going to get the word out to the public.

Right now, Iranians are managing to get information to each other. If they were unable to do so, they wouldn't be able to get thousands to come out on the streets of Iran for protests. The challenge is for their voices to be heard abroad. The Iranian government's restrictions and the clumsiness of certain media organizations are forcing the Iranian public to use Twitter and YouTube. Websites run by Iranians and websites with sources inside Iran must receive funding if the Islamic Republic's grip on the flow of information is going to be weakened.

*The Department of State has criticized Iran's nuclear ambitions extensively. However, when it comes to criticizing Iran for its violation of basic human rights, its track record is embarrassing. Human rights abuses committed by the Iranian government in the past 10 months have included illegal detentions, torture, rape, and murder.

Yet the US Government has not pressed a single resolution in the United Nations to condemn Iran's flagrant human rights abuses. The US could have used the opportunity to get the international community to open its eyes, but it is far too busy building up coalitions for sanctions. While sanctions against Iran are important, resolutions that recognize the regime's brutality are equally as important, as they deter the publics of United Nations member states from supporting their governments' favorable stances towards Iran.

The US must spearhead a UN resolution, condemning Iran's human rights abuses to set the record straight. Humanity must be made aware of how grave these crimes are if the US is to win world support against Iran and favour with the Green Movement.

*Finally, President Barack Obama needs to address the people of Iran and the Green Movement directly. Doing so, he needs to make clear in no uncertain terms that the US supports their fight for gaining the rights guaranteed to them by the Iranian Constitution and the United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

I remember growing up during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s. Every time a world leader stood up and said, "We are with you," it gave the cause of kicking the Reds out a huge moral boost. The Green Movement needs just such a lift.

Short and campy little Nowruz messages that intricately sidestep the issues with broad smiles won't do. The Green Movement will not be helped much by software. It will not be helped by arranging for visas for Iranian students. It will not be helped if it is treated like a movement that has died down and was restricted to 2009. The Green Movement needs its own speech, not just an honorable mention in a speech designed to engage the Iranian regime in a discussion about its nuclear policy.

The President needs to put on a stern face and speak up like the leader of the Free World. Obama must make it clear that the Green Movement has the full backing of the U.S. government and follow it up with action.

The Reverend Martin Luther King Jr. once said, "He who passively accepts evil is as much involved in it as he who helps to perpetrate it. He who accepts evil without protesting against it is really cooperating with it."

This is the second time I've quoted this invocation in the case of Iran. I hope it doesn't fall on deaf ears.

The Latest from Iran (2 April): Slipping By

1420 GMT: Obama Talks the Tough Talk. Continuing the public approach of a push for international sanctions, President Obama has told a US television network, "I have said before that we don't take any options off the table, and we're going to continue to ratchet up the pressure and examine how they respond. But we're going to do so with a unified international community -- that puts us in a much stronger position."

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At the same time, note how Obama carefully distinguishes himself from the line of other Washington talking heads demanding action because Iran is on the verge of military nuclear capability:

All the evidence indicates that the Iranians are trying to develop the capacity to develop nuclear weapons (emphasis added). They might decide that, once they have that capacity that they'd hold off right at the edge -- in order not to incur -- more sanctions.

But, if they've got nuclear weapons-building capacity -- and they are flouting international resolutions, that creates huge destabilizing effects in the region and will trigger an arms race in the Middle East that is bad for US national security but is also bad for the entire world.

1400 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Summary. Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani giving it his best, even though a lot of folks on 13 Bedar are more concerned with a day out with the family. He's going with "Iran has a special place in the Islamic family of nations" and "we are not seeking nuclear weapons but the malicious propaganda of Iran's enemies will occur all the way through this process".

1115 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz claims that families of human rights activists in detention are being constantly harassed by security forces.

The website also reports that film director Jafar Panahi is enduring "dire conditions" in Evin Prison and his lawyer is being denied access to his file.

1105 GMT: Now Let's See What China Says (and Does). Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, has struck his pose after discussions with the Chinese, saying that Iran and China "agreed that tools such as sanctions have lost their effectiveness".

Jalili wasn't so certain, however, that Beijing would put out that same line --- "It's up to China to answer that" --- and the Chinese response so far is limited to a call for "flexibility" in dealing with Iran.

1100 GMT: We've posted a new analysis from Josh Shahryar, "The Clerical Challenge Continues".

1015 GMT: Economy Watch. RAHANA claims, "Workers at the Ahvaz Pipe Factory have not received their wages for over a year. Additionally, upon returning to work after the Nowrooz holidays, close to 300 of them were handed their pink slips."

1000 GMT: India, Iran, and Economy Watch. Conflicting news on India's approach to Tehran: Green Voice of Freedom is claiming confirmation of earlier reports that India's Reliance Industries will not renew a contract to import crude oil from Iran.

Juan Cole, however, writes:

New Delhi just yesterday broached reviving a plan to bring natural gas from Iran through Pakistan and thence to India. The $8 billion plan has been in limbo for two or three years. First, the US pressured the Asian Development Bank not to underwrite the project, raising the question of where the $8 bn. will come from. Then, there were ethnic disturbances by Baluch tribesmen in the area through which the pipeline would run, raising questions about how secure it would be (a question you would want answered before sinking $8 bn. into it) Finally, Iran asked for an unrealistically high price for the natural gas.

But [now] Pakistan is pledging to ensure security for the pipeline.

0830 GMT: Controlling the Students. The Committee of Human Rights Reporters passes on the news that five members of the Council to Defend the Right to Education, formed by "starred" (monitored) and banned university students in 2007, remain in prison, some of them facing long sentences.

The Council's latest statement asserts, “We testify before the Iranian people that our friends have done nothing but demand for their rights; all the allegations against them are baseless. The accusations are revenge the enemies of freedom are taking against starred students."

The five are Zia Nabavi, detained on 15 June and sentenced to 15 years and 74 lashes; Majid Dorri, arrested on 9 July and sentenced to 11 years; Mahdieh Golroo and Shiva Nazar Ahari, imprisoned in December; and Payman Aref, detained in June and sent back to prison in March, serving one year and taking 74 lashes.

0745 GMT: The Iran-China Talks. More indications that Beijing is maintaining a cautious position on Iran's nuclear programme (see 0520 GMT). Khabar Online notes the discussions with Iran's top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili but also considers Chinese moves towards the US-led "5+1" position on sanctions.

0540 GMT: Slipping By? An EA reader has noted that the Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi has linked the anniversary of the Republic to a call for a public voice today, via a video and Ayatollah Khomeini's statement on 1 February 1979:

Everyone is entitled to choose his or her destiny. How can our ancestors be the deciders for us? How can those who were around 80 to 100 years ago determine the destiny of a nation that would be born in future? This is a nation that its destiny should be determined by itself and at this time is saying that we do not want this king.

0520 GMT: Yesterday was the 31st anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Republic, confirmed by a public vote in which 98.2 percent supported the Republic and a new Constitution. The day slipped by, however, with little fanfare: no prominent Government statements, no opposition demonstrations, indeed little of note on the domestic front.

Indeed, much of the chatter looked forward to today, Sizdah Bedar, the 13th day of the New Year and the last day of Nowruz celebrations. It literally translates as "get out [outside] of the 13th", referring to the invocation to be outside with family enjoying nature. Pedestrian has a humourous look, with mixed memories, at the occasion.

The only tribute we picked up to the Republic's formation was an indirect one: 31 years after the public issued its verdict on its system of rule, Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi asserted that Ayatollah Khomeini, were he still alive, would support another referendum on the Islamic leadership, including velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority).

Away from the lack of ceremony yesterday, Baha'i and women's rights activist Dorsa Sobhani has been released from solitary confinement. Sobhani was arrested on 7 March after the family home was raided five days earlier.

On the international front, Barack Obama has tried to counter the trip of Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, to Beijing with a call to Chinese leader Hu Jintao. Obama said, according to the White House, that Hu's attendance at a summit on nuclear security Washington later this month would be an "important opportunity for them to address their shared interest in stopping nuclear proliferation and protecting against nuclear terrorism".

We're still looking for any sign of an outcome from the Jalili trip. It is the lead story for the Islamic Republic News Agency, but the lengthy article has little more than the superficial public statements: Jalili with "Iran's approach is that people benefit from peaceful nuclear energy" and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs declaring that the relationship between the two countries is very important.

The Latest from Iran (1 April): Out Like a Lamb?

1905 GMT: Head of Judiciary Gets Told Off in Qom. Sadegh Larijani, the head of Iran's judiciary, visited leading clerics in Qom today, including Ayatollahs Safi Golpaygani, Makarem Shirazi, and Shabiri Zanjani, and he had a bit of a tough time.

Safi Golpaygani declared that even one day's delay in releasing detainees is not acceptable in Islam. He then asserted:

If external forces interfere in the judiciary and influence the judges and they fail to follow the truth in their sentencing, the independence of the judiciary will be compromised....All sentencing and imprisonments should follow the basic laws of Islam

1805 GMT: Nowruz Visits (cont.). Mehdi Karroubi has visited the family of detained film director Jafar Panahi.

1800 GMT: Putting the Supreme Leader to a Referendum? Payvand has an even stronger interpretation of Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi's statement (see 1520 GMT) that Islamic rule is subject to the will of the people:

If the Imam were alive today and some people were to tell him that due to post-Revolution generational developments in society, the majority are probably no longer in favour of "Velayat Faghih" and we want to gauge the support of people at this time, the Imam would have agreed with a referendum.

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1745 GMT: The Nuclear Line. Still no  significant word out of China over today's meetings with Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, but Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has put out a holding statement. According to Press TV, Mottaki, speaking in Algeria, said Tehran is still ready to swap its low enriched uranium for higher enriched fuel under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).


However, Mottaki did not make clear --- at least in the Press TV report --- if "within the framework of its proposed initiatives" had to be a swap inside Iran or could be in an outside country.

1540 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. RAHANA reports that Ehsan Abdeh-Tabrizi, the son of Hossein Abdeh-Tabrizi, former secretary-general of Tehran Stock Exchange and director of the banned newspaper Sarmayeh, has been detained for the last three months with no news about his status or possible charges.

Ehsan Abdeh-Tabrizi, is a Ph.D. student in Political Science at Durham University in Britain, had returned to Iran to visit his family, but his passport was confiscated upon his arrival at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini Airport and he was arrested a few days later.

1530 GMT: Nowruz Visits (cont.). Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard have visited the family of Shiva Nazar Ahari, the journalist and human rights activist detained since December.

1520 GMT: Clerical Interventions. Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi has declared that Islam should not be installed with force and dictatorship. Today (12 Farvardin) should be a day of all Iranians and all ethnic and religious minorities.

Hojatoleslam Rasul Montajabnia, the Vice President of the reformist Etemade Melli party, says that a leadership without a majority vote cannot survive. He added that the late Ayatollah Khomeini never promoted a rulership minus the people.

1245 GMT: Discussing Iran. Since yesterday afternoon, I have been in a conversation with the readers of the Race for Iran blog over political and legal issues, from the June election to protests to the place of "rights" in the crisis. After clearing away the white noise of those who post in denunciation rather than discussion, there are some interesting exchanges with those who take the position that the Ahmadinejad Government is legitimate and should be engaged by the Obama Administration.

1120 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reporters Without Borders has issued a statement:

The lives of many journalists are now in danger. Emadoldin Baghi, Badrolssadat Mofidi, Mehdi Mahmudian and Mohammad Sadegh Kabovand are seriously ill. We call for their unconditional and definitive release. We appeal to the Iranian authorities to act so that these lives are no longer at risk. We will hold them responsible for any misfortune.

1030 GMT: Sanctions 2+2=?. So, on the one hand, Iran's top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili is in China for talks (see 0500 GMT) and, on the other, Reuters is spinning Beijing's acceptance of a path to tougher sanctions:

China has agreed to serious negotiations with Western powers about imposing new sanctions on Iran and President Hu Jintao will attend a multi-nation summit on nuclear security in Washington this month, officials said....The agreement to discuss sanctions marked a significant shift by China after months of fending off Western nations' demands for concerted pressure on Tehran.

Personally, I think it's too early to make a call on China's next steps. For the moment, it's all messages to all people, as in this from the Chinese Foreign Ministry's spokesman (paraded hopefully by Iran's state media): "On the Iranian nuclear issue, China will continue to endeavor toward a peaceful resolution."

0640 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Mohsen Hashemi, the son of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, has denied allegations that he has a villa in Switzerland.

0635 GMT: Nowruz Visits. Former Deputy Minister of Interior Mostafa Tajzadeh, still on his temporary release from Evin Prison, and his family paid a visit to former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, who was also a long-time post-election detainee, and his family.


0630 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz prints the collage of journalist Azar Mansouri, made with cardboard and toothpaste while she was detained in Evin Prison.

0615 GMT: And The Reformists Speak. The pro-Larijani Khabar Online also, for the second time in recent weeks, discussed politics with reformist Shahrbanou Amani. Amani assserted that "hardliners" should create favourable conditions for political competition, because free parties are necessary for a developed society. Amanid added that reformists should regrtoup and take advantage from the promises of the "hardliners", demanding that they be fulfilled.

0555 GMT: The Conservative Challenge. Speaking to Khabar Online, conservative activist Mojtaba Shakeri Mojtaba Shakeri has declared that "fundamentalists" have to prove they are capable of ruling Iran.

0545 GMT: The Nuclear Issue. While we await news from China, Rah-e-Sabz offers an overview of the current situation on Iran's nuclear progamme and international manoeuvres over uranium enrichment and sanctions.



0515 GMT: Media Nuclear Fever. Yet another example of a prominent newspaper losing perspective on the Iranian nuclear issue....

The Guardian of London, framing an interview with the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei, headlines, "Cautious reports on Tehran nuclear programme 'were framed to avoid war'".

Dramatic stuff. Only problem? Nowhere in the article does an El Baradei quote indicate that he altered reports for political reasons. Here's what he actually says:

We are a technical organisation totally embedded in a political setting and we have to be aware of the background and political implications of our work....

"When I was working at the agency we would literally go through 30 drafts or so of each report before it was ready, because I knew every word could be used politically and in a very subjective way. Every word was weighed to make sure that it was immune from being abused, and I always wanted to make sure that we were not overstating or understating, but rather just stating the facts....

I think the tone was set by me, that's true. But all the facts were in every report, unvarnished.

0505 GMT: The Subsidy Fight. Member of Parliament Mohammad Kosari has repeated his compromise plan to resolve the dispute between the Majlis and the President over subsidy cuts and spending. Invoking the Supreme Leader's recent remarks "asking the government to adhere to law and the Majlis to help the administration", Kosari has suggested an extra $30 billion for Ahmadinejad, the halfway point between the $20 billion authorised by the Parliament and the $40 billion sought by the President.

0500 GMT: Completing the saying, the title today is a bookend to that of 1 March, "In Like a Lion?", but it seems appropriate as we come to the end of the Nowruz holiday. We'll be watching to see if the quiet phase in Iranian politics continues or if there is a resumption of manoeuvres, amongst the opposition, the Rafsanjani camp, and conservative challengers to the Government.

For the moment, however, the nuclear issue still holds the headlines. In what looks to be a significant (and quickly-planned) trip, Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, is in China today. Take your pick of speculations on the motive: the Iranians are approaching Beijing with a request to hold off on sanctions and/or to put forth a deal for uranium enrichment, the Chinese have summoned a representative from Tehran to put out a message. No hint in Iranian state media yet of developments.