The Latest from Iran (29 August): The Stakes Are Raised

UPDATED Iran: How the Regime Constructed the “Velvet Revolution”
Iran Video Exclusive: Ministry of Intelligence Proves “Velvet Revolution”
The Latest from Iran (28 August): The President Prays

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1820 GMT: EA correspondent Mr Johnson gives us some guidance on the change of Tehran chief prosecutor:

Regardless of Dowlatabadi's political affiliations, the replacement of Mortazavi is a sign that the establishment considers him to be a liability and perhaps dispensable as a potential scapegoat.

The main issue is whether this change is merely cosmetic or whether the establishment take a proactive approach, namely, scuttle the trials (which can be easily done because all the indictments are so flimsy that none of them can bear any legal scrutiny), and somehow solve the very public and very embarrasing and inflammatory issue of prison tortures and unmarked graves, thereby regaining some semblence of legality and law. The next few days will be extremely inportant.

1755 GMT: A reader strikes back immediately at the security force denials of involvement in post-election raids: "You can't fake live video feed. We've got evidence on several videos that basij attacked dorms in Tehran University," and offers this:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzUhJXTspcw[/youtube]

1740 GMT: This is now looking like a concerted campaign between the President and security force commanders to deny any post-election misdeeds. After Tehran's police chief denied any detainee was killed in Kahrizak prison (0845 GMT), the Revolutionary Guard commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari has said the post-election death toll is 20 Basiji militia and only 9 "opponents and outlaws". Jafari denied that the Basiji were involved in the raids on university dormitories days after the election.

1715 GMT: EA's Iran analyst Mr Smith drops by to take issue with the portrayal by Tehran Bureau of an "isolated, weak, and delusional" Ahmadinejad (1310 GMT):

This lacks sources on just about all the allegations it makes and then essentially parrots the reformist line: Ahmadinejad is weak, is in trouble, is a lame duck already, etc.

While of course all of us wish that this was the case, the reality appears quite different, as we have seen no real thrust to wrestle him out of office. The Supreme Leader has only rebuked him frontally during the [former First Vice President] Mashai affair and he still has the rather remarkable opportunity of talking from official platforms such as Friday Prayers, saying things quite different from what the SL says, and still walking out relatively unscathed.

Granted, he has the same amount, or more, difficulties than any executive leader in the world would have for forming a government, but I would be very cautious in calling Ahmadinejad a has-been and that days may be counted down to his demise. Sadly, I doubt this scenario will happen anytime soon.

We shouldn't forget that the Supreme Leader, conservative critics of AN like the Larijanis, Ahmad Tavakoli (who happens to be the Larijanis' cousin), and more have essentially agreed to accept the outcome of the Presidential election as announced by the Interior ministry. Hence, they are simply jostling for political kudoes and power within the Government, more than mounting a challenge that is really geared towards removing Ahmadinejad from power.

1700 GMT: Back from an afternoon break for a wedding.

After a couple of weeks of indecision, Tehran's Chief Prosecutor Saeed Mortazavi has been replaced by Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi, head of judiciary in the southern province of Khuzestan.

The Los Angeles Times is framing Dowlatabadi as "a relatively moderate newcomer" and portraying Mortazavi's "firing" as a signal against the trials of political detainees that he oversaw. We're not sure of that interpretation --- any comments would be welcome.

1340 GMT: Our question (0445 GMT): "Does Mehdi Karroubi make another intervention on detentions and abuses?" Karroubi's answer: an open letter to the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, offering to provide documentation and detainees who have suffered abuse.

1323 GMT: The principlist member of Parliament Ali Motahari, who has been highly critical of the Government in recent weeks, has said Ahmadinejad's remarks contest and challenge the Supreme Leader and the President must be held responsible for his deeds and words, particularly on the issue of detentions.

1315 GMT: The reformist party Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, some of whose members are among the political detainees, have strongly condemned the 4th “show trial” and called it a reminder of the medieval inquisition courts and Stalin-era tribunals. The party emphasised that the staged “trials” and false “confessions” are conspiracies to suspend the reformist parties.

1310 GMT: And, on the same theme, Muhammad Sahimi at Tehran Bureau pays great attention to the "glaring fissures [which] have emerged within the conservative and reactionary camp", albeit with the dramatic presentation of an "isolated, weak, and delusional" Ahmadinejad.

1300 GMT: It's not just Enduring America that is raising questions about the divide between the Supreme Leader and the President in light of their differing speeches on Wednesday and yesterday. The reformist website Rah-e-Sabz has noted the divergences over foreign-inspired revolution and, in particular, Ahmadinejad's denial of any security force responsibility for abuses less than 48 hours after Ayatollah Khamenei promised that anyone guilty of such abuses would be published.

1110 GMT: The Battle over the Cabinet. A prominent "conservative" member of Parliament, Ahmad Tavakoli, has said that 7 of President Ahmadinejad's 21 Ministerial nominees will fail to receive a vote of confidence. Echoing reports from yesterday, Tavakoli said all three women put forth will be rejected because of a lack of executive experience.

1040 GMT: In an interview with Etemad newspaper, Mohammad Hashemi, the brother of Hashemi Rafsanjani, said that Rafsanjani is not planning to quit leading Friday Prayers He also described how security forces beat Rafsanjani's daughter-in-law while arresting her during one of the post-election protests.

0905 GMT: Pretty slow day after yesterday's excitement. No answers to any of our questions at 0445 GMT. Internet chatter is on the call by Human Rights Watch on the new head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, to "tackle rights abuses".

0845 GMT: Nothing Happened Here. More signs of an Ahmadinejad Fightback. After the President's claims yesterday that incidents at detention centres were the fault of the protest movement, rather than the security forces, the Tehran police chief, Azizollah Rajabzadeh, has explained that "no defendants were transferred to the Kahrizak detention centre without a judicial warrant and no defendant was killed" in the prison.

Oh. Well, following on the week's theme --- the Supreme Leader and the President on different pages of the script --- someone might want to tell Ayatollah Khamenei, who has admitted mistakes at Kahrizak and ordered its closure.

0515 GMT: A Follow-Up on "Velvet Revolution". After our analysis yesterday, "How the Regime Constructed the Velvet Revolution", an EA correspondent points to an interview by Ayande News with Hamid Reza Moghadam-Far, the Managing Director of Fars News Agency, and a Mr. Gharebaghi, whom Ayande claim are two of the authors of the Tehran trial indictments. Their views of the "velvet revolution" are posted in an update of the analysis.

0445 GMT: At the risk of being overdramatic, Friday was a day of two statements, that of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to and beyond the audience at Tehran's prayers and that of Mohammad Khatami to and beyond reformist leaders.

The founding assertion of each statement was that the current President/former President was ready to take the post-election crisis to a political and legal showdown with the ultimate public punishment. In Ahmadinejad's case, he was ready to press until the opposition leaders were imprisoned for a long, long time; in Khatami's, he was ready to see the "traitors" ejected from power and positions of responsibility.

What we now await, in an always-shifting conflict but one which continues to be about legitimacy, is the response of others. With respect, the protest movement is mainly an observer, with the next mass demonstration proposed for 18 September, so attention turns to political and religious leaders. Does Hashemi Rafsanjani and his allies break cover, after their recent skirmish over the Tehran trial, and give any support to Khatami? Does Mehdi Karroubi make another intervention on detentions and abuses, and thus those responsibile for them, or wait for a Parliamentary response to his claims? Where is Mir Hossein Mousavi?

And, just to repeat our thought from yesterday, what does the Supreme Leader do now?

UPDATED Iran: How the Regime Constructed the "Velvet Revolution"

The Latest from Iran (28 August): The President Prays
Iran Video Exclusive: Ministry of Intelligence Proves “Velvet Revolution”

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UPDATE 29 August: Ayande News has posted a lengthy audio interview with Hamid Reza Moghadam-Far, the Managing Director of Fars News Agency, and a Mr. Gharebaghi, whom Ayande claim are two of the authors of the Tehran trial indictments. (Ayande also says Reza Seraj, the Head of Student Basij Organization, is a third author of the indictment.)

The interviewee try to distinguish between "velvet" and "colored" revolutions. A "colored" revolution, such as the movements in Ukraine and Georgia in 2004, only intend to change behaviour, whereas a "velvet" revolution intends to overthrow the regime, as in Czechoslovakia. (Significantly, the Tehran trial indictments repeatedly refer to US-sponsored operatives planning their Iranian regime change from a Czech academic institution.) Both men express their unhappiness that Iran's judicial and security systems do not have sufficient powers to deal with the "velvet" revolution.

And the source of the trouble? Samuel Huntington and his 1991 book, The Third Wave of Democratization, which was translated into Persian and apparently became a "manifesto" for reformers.

UPDATE: By coincidence, just after writing this, I discovered that Robert Mackey wrote yesterday of "Iran’s Fear of a ‘Velvet Revolution’" in The Lede blog of The New York Times, referring to Tajbakhsh's testimony briefly. The piece, unfortunately, is not in the print edition of the newspaper.

One of the surprises of this week's 4th Tehran trial was how little attention was paid outside Iran to the testimony of the Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh, who was among the latest set of defendants. The foreign media had featured the situation of French national Clotilde Reiss, a graduate student spending time at Isfahan University, when she “confessed” in an earlier trial, and earlier this year the detention of Iranian-American Roxana Saberi had been headline news. Tajbakhsh, however, was almost invisible, apart from passing references to his status and a couple of paragraphs in the Wall Street Journal.

The episode is far more than a question of the media noting a “foreigner” in jail. Tajbakhsh's testimony illustrated the fundamental pretext of these trials and, indeed, the regime's crackdown on political opposition; paradoxically, it also undermined the pretext.

Because --- Mr Prosecutor, Mr Ahmadinejad, Generals of the Revolutionary Guard --- are academics really at the forefront the “velvet revolution” to overthrow your Islamic Republic?

The claim has been at the heart of the prosecution's case since the indictment at the first trial three weeks ago. We noted then that the efforts for regime change not only involved but were supposedly inspired and led by academics and writers such as Gene Sharp, Abbas Milani, and Mark Palmer, adding a large dose of scepticism to our analysis. It is Tajbakhsh's testimony that illustrates, however, just how far the regime will go and, how with each step, its legal and political case is shakier and shakier.

The opening gambit in Tajbakhsh's “confession” is that “information services” of the US Government and the CIA develop and carry out their schemes with “semi-hidden” activities of academic institutions “such as the [Woodrow] Wilson Center in Washington”, behind the front of their “scientific research, academic seminars, and meetings”, and funders such as the Soros Foundation, for whom Tajbakhsh worked in Iran, and the Carnegie Foundation. The real goal of supposedly neutral study and research is “disturbing public order and creating chaos and fear in society” in the seven-step pursuit of “soft overthrow” of the enemy system.

Beyond the general allegation of the scheme “promoting Western democracy, secularism, and liberalism”, there were few details of Tajbakhsh's activities inside Iran. The headline charge was his meetings with Mohammad Khatami, Iranian President from 1997 to 2005, including an introduction of the leader to George Soros. The contacts had started in 1997, which implied that Khatami was seeking the overthrow of the Government that he was leading, and continued after he left the Presidency. Others named in the “confession” were Mostafa Tajzadeh, a Vice Minister at the Ministry of Interior under Khatami, Gholamhossein Karbaschi, a key Khatami advisor  supporting Mehdi Karroubi during the 2009 Presidential campaign, and journalist Mohammad Atrianfar. There were also meetings with Saeed Hajjarian, the reformist leader whose own “confession” was the headline moment of the 4th trial about developing and using “social capital” for velvet revolution.

As sketchy as these claims are, however, it is Tajbakhsh's “confession” of the foreigners directing his efforts to the level of the fantastic. The relatively little-known Dutch foundation Hivos makes another appearance, after its citation in the indictment of the first trial, to set up subversive media activities. Unsurprisingly, given the regime's denunciation of Britain throughout the crisis, BBC Persian gets a mention.

Then this revelation: one of the networks for this velvet revolution is a discussion list, with “more than a thousand members”, called “Gulf 2000”, led by a former National Security Council staff member in the Carter and Reagan Administrations, now Professor at Columbia University, named Gary Sick. While Tajbakhsh noted that Sick and the list members are not CIA agents, he said,"If I had known about it [G2K's misconduct "proven" in Iranian documents], I would have cut my contacts with it."

“Fantastic” claims, indeed, for the Tajbakhsh's testimony and the claims of velvet revolution now reached all the way to Enduring America. Here I should declare a personal interest. In the last years of the Khatami Presidency, a close colleague unwittingly came close --- if Tajbakhsh's “confession” were true --- to becoming part of the conspiracy. Working with an Iranian university, he drafted a grant request to the Soros Foundation in Tehran to fund the purchase of books and the movement of students and scholars between Iranian and Western institutions. Before the proposal could be submitted, the word came down from higher levels of the Iranian university: Soros, with its promotion of “democracy” and “open society”, was off-limits.

And I am a member of Gulf 2000's misbehaving network. Apparently, amidst discussion of topics from Saudi Prince Turki al-Feisal's recent writings on energy to the political situation in Iraq to Iran's dispute with the United Arab Emirates over islands in the Persian Gulf, I take my place as a velvet revolutionary.

None of this is to belittle the seriousness of events in Iran, both the general political conflict and the specific situation of Kian Tajbakhsh. It does, however, point to the absurdity when politics and academia collide. Far from being the hyper-clever agents of revolution, professors and social scientists find themselves as mute actors in the play of a regime which sees a dispute over a Presidential election as a threat to its survival.

The Latest from Iran (28 August): The President Prays

NEW Latest Iran Video: Khamenei Speech to Student Leaders (26 August)
Iran Video Exclusive: Ministry of Intelligence Proves “Velvet Revolution”

NEW Iran: Welcome to the “Velvet Revolution”

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1745 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Cabinet Woes. Press TV, from Iranian Labor News Agency, reports that the majority "principlist" bloc in Parliament is going to reject the three women among the President's 18 Ministerial nominations (albeit with some pretty weak excuses):

With regards to proposed health minister Marziyeh Vahid-Dastjerdi, [a bloc member] said that "certain reports about her business activities had reached the bloc which altered the opinion of the members about her".

The Principlist Majlis deputy, who sits on another bloc as well, said about Sussan Keshavarz, who has been offered the education portfolio: "We have heard that she was active in the campaign headquarters of Mir-Hossein Mousavi."...

The third candidate, Fatemeh Ajorloo, who was picked for the welfare post, was rejected because she "is too good". "It would be a shame if she becomes welfare minister," said the unnamed source, presumably because the ministry is due to be disbanded in the coming months.

Meanwhile, the reformist bloc of the Majlis has decided to vote in favor of Vahid-Dastjerdi.

1420 GMT: The Day's Big (Unseen) Story? I saw this floating around yesterday --- the storyinitially came out on the technology site of the Islamic Republic News Agency and then circulated on other Iranian websites --- but it is only with the help of EA's readers (see comments below) that I could put this together.

The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (Revolutionary Guard), which has become just as renowned in recent years for their role in Iran's economy as for their security function, are set to buy a major stakeholding in the Iranian Telecommunications Agency.

Since 2005, Iran had planned to float the shares of the state company, which is one of three operators in the country. One of the other two is owned by Hashemi Rafsanjani, but its reach is limited to Tehran and some smaller smaller cities. The Revolutionary Guard already have a stake in Iran Cell, so if they were successful in their bid for shares of ITA, they would be in a leading position in Iran's two major cellphone providers.

This is unlikely to be a case of the Guard showing up with chequebook in hand to buy the shares. Instead, as has been the case with other sectors such as pharmaceuticals and automobiles, the purchase will be made through a front company.

There is also an interesting international twist in this story. Earlier this summer, a Russian company was to be granted a license as the third national cellphone operator, but the process suddenly stalled last month (companies from the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait were also trying to get the license). The effective suspension is probably linked to the high process the Iranian Government was demanding, but it leaves the Revolutionary Guard in an even stronger position in the cellphone sector.

1400 GMT: In Case Anyone Really Cares. The actual address at Friday prayers in Tehran, as opposed to President Ahmadinejad's introduction, was delivered by Hojetoleslam Sadighi. His headline declaration was that the "world's exceptional crimes" are the crimes of Israel in Palestine.

1330 GMT: Today is turning into a contest of two statements and, in contrast to recent days, Western media are eagerly on top of the story. Former President Khatami's statement to reformist leaders is being juxtaposed with current President Ahmadinejad's speech at Friday prayers.

While there are a complex range of issues in this battle, from the legal issues of detentions/confessions/trials to the institutional challenges of who controls Iran's bureaucracy and security forces to the political showdown over Ahmadinejad's legitimacy, it is this sentence from Khatami that may represent the moment: "'The sacred Friday prayer podium has been given to those who...call for the punishment of prominent figures...while they are accused in the eyes of the public for committing treason themselves."

Even though Khatami was probably referring to Friday prayers past and addresses delivered by "hard-line" clerics such as Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami and Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, that sentence will be set next to Ahmadinejad's none-too-subtle call for the arrests of protest leaders.

To put an immediate question: 48 hours after trying to avert a showdown with his own statement, the Supreme Leader finds the confrontation ratcheted up several notches. What does Khamenei do now?

1200 GMT: More details are emerging of former President Khatami's statement in his meeting with leaders of the Reformist Front, via outlets such as Radio Farda and Parleman News. Khatami said that "the black cloud of worthlessness of people's votes under this regime should be eliminated" and that those who opened fire on the people on the streets should be prosecuted.

1150 GMT: Credit to Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times, who has just nailed the significance of this morning's events in his lead paragraph: "Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad demanded the prosecution of opposition leaders today, raising the nation's political temperature just a day and a half after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei sought to cool tempers in a conciliatory speech."

1130 GMT: Fars News Agency have published a summary of Tehran's Friday prayers address by Hojetoleslam Sadighi.

1030 GMT: Press TV has now posted its English summary of the Ahmadinejad speech, featuring the call for the "severe punishment of the orchestrators of the post-election unrest" and its "painful" events.

The President is not backing away from the "velvet revolution" theme, saying that Iranian opposition leaders were "deceived by the enemy's schemes (and) did their best to undermine the high voter turnout in the election and to shake the foundations of the Islamic establishment".

The president said, "I call upon security and judicial officials to decisively and mercilessly act with those who committed inhumane acts in the guise of the friends [of the establishment] since they inflicted damage on people and tarnished the image of the establishment, security and police forces."

0915 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami, meeting members of the Reform Front, has emphasised the need for a stronger presence of the reformists in Iranian politics with continuation of their efforts for change.

0900 GMT: More on the Ahmadinejad Speech. Fars News Agency has posted its summary. The President followed long-established lines with his references to 85 percent participation in the Presidential election and the 25 million who voted for him. This was testimony to the "revolutionary values" and "originality" of Iran. Enemies were trying to separate the "Islamic" and "Republic" in this Iranian revolution; however, Ahmadinejad proclaimed that, "after more than two months", these enemies were "staggering and had lost their way home", failing in their media plans and political efforts.

There was one nice touch in the rhetoric, especially since the President needs to be careful with his references to a "velvet revolution" that the Supreme Leader has now denied. Apparently the British Foreign Minister [David Miliband] had said, when asked why Britain was involved in Iranian affairs, that otherwise work on the Islamic Republic would soon be completed.

0840 GMT: Oh, yes, Ahmadinejad also asked Parliament to show their trust with votes of confidence in his "strong, coherent, professional, and honest" Ministers.

0830 GMT: Mahmoud Speaks. And wow, what a way to begin the introduction to Friday prayers. The President has claimed that attacks on University dormitories just after the 12 June election were staged by "relatives" of students and protestors, complementing their disturbances on the streets.

These acts tried to discredit the Presidential vote, "a matter of genuine democracy unlike other staged elections in the world, where the outcome is predetermined".

0800 GMT: A stuttering start to the day. We were laid low by a server problem but there is still no breaking news to report. We're waiting for first accounts of President Ahmadinejad's introduction of Friday prayers in Tehran, which should include glowing references for his Cabinet nominees.

We've taken the time, during the server outage, to write up a special analysis on the regime's pretext of "velvet revolution" as the cause of the post-election conflict. This, of course, has been true since June, but it came home to us this week with the testimony of Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh during the 4th Tehran trial. Apparently some of our colleagues (and at least one EA staffer) are now amongst the velvet revolutionaries.

The "Western" media, from The New York Times to experts like Juan Cole, are now catching up with the last major development, the Supreme Leader's speech from Wednesday. (Unless it's The Washington Post, who apparently no longer care about Iran unless the story is about Tehran's nuclear threat; they are silent on Iran today.)

Latest Iran Video: Khamenei Speech to Student Leaders (26 August)

The Latest from Iran (28 August): The President Prays
Iran: The Regime’s Knockout Punch? Not Quite.

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Part 1 of 4

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTh1V0TKsXc[/youtube]

Part 2 of 4

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SF-eQLmfXhs[/youtube]

Part 3 of 4

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qt9Myhvy9rs[/youtube]

Part 4 of 4

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gI5F1f_8f5M[/youtube]

Iran Video Exclusive: Ministry of Intelligence Proves "Velvet Revolution"

Iran: Welcome to the “Velvet Revolution”
The Latest from Iran (28 August): The President Prays

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I first learned of this video days after the 12 June Presidential election, but after much deliberation, I decided not to post it. The source, the Middle East Media Research Institute, is fervently critical of the Islamic Republic, and it has sometimes posted video "evidence" out of context.

In light of the "revelations" in the Tehran trials, considered in our analysis today of the regime's portrayal of academics and "velvet revolution", I decided to have another look. And there are enough matches between the trial's indictments and the allegations in this video to make the initally ludicrous --- could any Ministry of Intelligence really air this as "proof" of the enemy's devious plots, especially to turn its population into informers on their fellow citizens? --- into the very believable.

So sit back and enjoy badly-animated John McCain ("senior White House official", rather than Republican candidate for President), George Soros ("Jewish tycoon and the mastermind of ultra-modern colonialism"), Gene Sharp (Harvard professor turned "theoretician of civil disobedience and velvet revolutions" and "one of the CIA's agents in charge of infiltration into other countries"), and Bill Smith (first I've heard of this "CIA senior expert on Iranian affairs") plot the downfall of Iran....

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kizkljTDR_Q[/youtube]