The Latest from Iran (15 August): Battles Within the Establishment

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Story of Esha Momeni (15 August)
NEW Iran: The Inside Line on Hashemi Rafsanjani (from His Brother)
NEW Iran Special: Mohammad Sadegh Larijani and a "Militarised" Judiciary
The Latest from Iran (14 August): Just Another Prayer Day?
Two Months On: All Our Videos From Iran’s Post-Election Conflict

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2025 GMT: Green movement youth branch members Saeed Noormohammadi and Zoya Hasani have been released from detention.

2015 GMT: A Nice Message to Close the Day. The commander of the Basiji militia, Hossein Taeb, has declared that if Mehdi Karroubi's allegations of sexual abuse of detainees are proven to be a lie, Karroubi is "debauched" and "sinful" and should receive 80 lashes.

1810 GMT: Maryam, from the excellent blog Keeping the Change notifies us that she has translated into English a graphic, moving account by the Iranian journalist Babak Dad, "The Rapes Inside Iran's Prisons: The Story of One Anonymous Victim and a Call to the People of Iran". She introduces it, "It is, in short, a beautifully written and lyrical piece, providing the personal, yet socially critical, perspective on the rape allegations that we did not know we were missing until Mr. Dad brought it to our attention."

Dad has also been interviewed by the Voice of America about the account.

1720 GMT: In the morning, we're going to offer a detailed analysis --- after today's appointment of Mohammad Sadeq Larijani as the head of Iran's judiciary --- on the battle over the judiciary, and its wider implication for the political manoeuvres between the Supreme Leader, the President, Hashemi Rafsanjani, the Green opposition, and even (perhaps especially) the Revolutionary Guards.

For now, here's a teaser from the announcement on Ayatollah Khamenei's website that points to the tightrope walked by the Supreme Leader:

His Eminence Ayatollah Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, has appointed Ayatollah Agha Hajj Shaykh Sadegh Larijani to the head of the judicial system. The text of the decree of the Supreme Leader of the Revolution follows:

In the name of God,

The Gracious Hojatoleslam Agha Shaykh Sadegh Amoli Larijani, esteemed scholar ... given that the extended period of leadership of Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi within the judiciary has come to an end....

Note the titles we've put in boldface. "Ayatollah" is a higher clerical rank than "Hojatoleslam". Larijani can be referred to as "Ayatollah" initially by the Supreme Leader, not by virtue of his religious standing but because of his membership on the Assembly of Experts and the Guardian Council. After that, Khamenei retreats to the title "Hojatoleslam".

An EA correspondent interprets, "Khamenei was trying to keep the Najaf and Qom seminaries from openly criticising him on the choice with the careful use of the titles. Meanwhile, he has nominated a non-specialist to lead the judiciary and kept other conservatives at bay, such as Ali Larijani and [Mayor of Tehran] Qalibaf by giving them a consolation prize."

More --- much more --- tomorrow morning.

1600 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi's website, Ghalam News, is still down. It has been out of service for at least 24 hours.

1500 GMT: Barazou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times reports, from the Iranian Labor News Agency that Mir Hossein Mousavi has announced a "Green Path of Hope" to organise the political movement that arose before and after the Presidential election. Speaking to a group of doctors, Mousavi said, “Numerous volunteer and independent social networks throughout the society form the body of this movement. The Green Path of Hope is in fact aimed at regaining people’s denied rights.”

Building on the theme of recent weeks, Mousavi used the issues of detentions, confessions, and trials as a touchstone for political concerns, “We would not have witnessed so many crises today had [the authorities] adopted fair positions and respected people’s rights, instead of humiliating people on state television. Instead of accusing million-strong demonstrators of connection to foreigners, you have to find those who are waging a poisonous propaganda war on our people."

What is uncertain is how much Mousavi's announcement amounts to a "political front", even though that is label used by Daragahi, with no indication yet by other opposition leaders of their approach to the Green Path of Hope.

1425 GMT: Report from Etemade Melli (political party) website that security forces around Etemade Melli (newspaper) are increasing but situation under control.

1340 GMT: Reuters is reporting, from the Supreme Leader's official site, that Ayatollah Khamenei has appointed Mohammad Sadegh Larijani as head of Iran's judiciary, saying "in a letter to Larijani that he hoped the judiciary would flourish under him".

What Reuters does not ask is why the appointment was made today in a letter rather than in the ceremony scheduled for today. Indeed, the news agency garbles the story, "Some reformist websites had recently reported that Larijani was hesitant to accept the position because of the mass arrests of moderate detainees."

In fact, and in line with the analysis we posted in a separate entry today, Khamenei is pushing through the appointment --- albeit with little fanfare --- against the opposition of supporters of President Ahmadinejad. What is unclear is whether Larijani's reported demand, the cessation of cases against political detainees, will be met.

Instead, as the Iranian Students News Agency reports, trials for another 25 detainees will begin on Sunday. They will join the more than 100 prisoners who have already been in the dock.

1325 GMT: Safety Valve. The Iranian regime, according to Mehr TV, is trying to ease pressure by firing and pressing criminal charges against 12 police officers and a judge associated with the Kahrizak detention facility.

1145 GMT: The Conclusion of a Pre-Election Story. Rather quietly, Iranian-American graduate student Esha Momeni returned to the United States on Tuesday after detention and then a ban on leaving Iran. In April, we profiled the arrest of Momeni, who was working on a thesis on the women's right movement in Iran. She was detained in October 2008 when her research included the filming of a documentary on the activists and charged with “endangering national security” as an “agent of Western powers”.

Momeni has given an extended interview to journalists at her university, California State, Northridge. We've posted the video as a separate entry.

0930 GMT: When the Threat to a Supreme Leader Becomes "Real". This morning's interview with Al Jazeera English went well. AJE is an excellent operation, so we were able to set out the challenge to Ayatollah Khamenei both from former MPs, who are no doubt acting as a vanguard for other groups within the secular establishment, and from some senior clerics.

What struck me after the discussion was how a story becomes "mainstream". Enduring America had this information Thursday night and ran an extended analysis yesterday morning. However, the "threat" only becomes real when the big boys of the media decide to give it that label. So this morning, Al Jazeera English decided to feature the story when the Associated Press put it on their newswires. The Wall Street Journal and the Los Angeles Times also have detailed articles.

So I guess it's time to take the analysis to the next level. In the interview with Al Jazeera English, I suggested that the move against Khamenei should be seen in the context of a rebuttal to the campaign that has been waged against former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. That is especially true in the Assembly of Experts, where some pro-Ahmadinejad members had tried to limit Rafsanjani's influence. So one logical way "forward" is a settlement between Khamenei and Rafsanjani. But, in that case (and remembering the complexity of such a settlement, which would have to consider the Supreme Leader's power and authority), who would be the big loser?

Step up, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

0920 GMT: We have now posted Mehdi Khalaji's provocative analysis of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani and Iran's judiciary, adding our own interpretation.

0755 GMT: More on one of our last stories from yesterday. In response to the leaflets, spread by the Ansar-e Hezbollah groups at Friday prayers, calling for a "gathering" in front of the Etemade Melli newspaper, Karroubi has stated, "We always welcome the opinions and presence of critics and we will hear all of their suggestions and criticisms and we shall reflect these opinions in Etemade Melli." Karroubi also requested that the friends and supporters of Etemade Melli "refrain from gathering in front of the newspaper on Saturday so that our rerporters can interview these critics under calm conditions". Karroubi concluded with a message to his supporters " I will join you in the gathering taking place in front of the offices of Etemade Melli on Monday at 16:00 local time to thank those in charge of the newspaper and to get feedback from you".

The editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli has asked Tehran's prosecutor and head of police to provide security for the newspaper.

0745 GMT: Another Stick for "Conservatives" to Beat Themselves. The proclamation of Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi, a staunch supporter of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, that "obedience to the President is like obedience to God" has angered many "conservatives". The newspaper Jomhoori Eslami has pointed out the inherent hypocrisy in Mesbah's proclamation: "If Mr. Mesbah-Yazdi's statement is accepted, he must confess that he himself is a great sinner because, during the eight years that Mr Khatami was President, he encouraged everyone to disobey and confront the President....Even during the last four years, Mr Mesbah has also occasionally sinned against God by expressing his disagreements with Ahmadinejad."

0727 GMT: A slow-ish start to the day, but an unexpectedly busy Friday which exposed the challenges that persist for the regime. The Friday prayer address of Ahmed Khatami, despite his hard-line rhetoric against the "devil's tools and facilities" of the opposition and its leaders, was overshadowed by both secular and clerical challenges to the Government.

Three stories, all of which we noted yesterday and feature today, continue to lead that challenge. The first is the "Karroubi letter" on abuse of detainees, now taken up by Hashemi Rafsanjani in a demand for action. In a separate entry, we highlight an interview with Rafsanjani's brother, Mohammmad Hashemi, which sheds some light on the former President's concerns and motives.

The second story is the unexpected delay in the confirmation of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani as head of Iran's judiciary, which points to fighting between President Ahmadinejad and "conservative" and "principlist" critics of his politics and actions. Although Fars News says that Larijani's ceremony will take place on Monday, the tension is still present. We have a profile of Larijani and an analysis of Iran's judiciary in a separate entry.

The third story is the emerging challenge to the Supreme Leader's position, with both individual Ayatollahs and former MPs calling for a review of his authority. I am interviewing live with Al Jazeera English in 60 seconds on this, so will be back later with details.

The Latest from Iran (14 August): Just Another Prayer Day?

NEW Text: Latest Karroubi Statement on Detainees, Rafsanjani, and Larijani (13 August)
NEW Is the Challenge to the Regime Alive? Pressure on the Supreme Leader
NEW Is the Challenge to the Regime Alive? Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and Detainees
NEW Video: Debating the Election, Protest, and the Tehran Trials (Marandi, Mossavat, and Tisdall)

The Latest from Iran (13 August): The Challenge Rebuilds
Two Months On: All Our Videos From Iran’s Post-Election Conflict

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2025 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz, which has been very active today in portraying division within the Government, leaves another explosive story tonight. It claims that a member of Parliament from the "majority (conservative) faction" has "revealed that Hossein Fadaii, Tehran’s pro-Ahmadinejad MP and chairman of [the hardline pro-Ahmadinejad organisation] Isargaran was responsible for the crimes committed in Kahrizak prison [where some detainees were killed] and this has been proven for the Parliament".

2005 GMT: Another ominous (and official) signal. The political director of the Revolutionary Guard, General Yudollah Javani, has reissued the threat to arrest opposition leaders. Having sent out the message in the Guard's journal last week, Javani said yesterday that prosecution of Mir Hossein Mousavi would end opposition and the “blow that has been dealt to the prestige of the establishment.”

After criticising Mohammad Khatami, Javani identified his main target: "This flame of sedition cannot be put out unless through clarifying and trying the real elements [of the movement]. Mousavi should stand before the court to be enlightened.”

2000 GMT: All day there has been Twitter chatter about leaflets, circulated at Friday prayers in Tehran, calling for an attack on the main office of Etemade Melli, the party of Mehdi Karroubi, tomorrow at 4 p.m. local time.

Mowj-e-Sabz, the website of the Green movement, has picked up the story, saying that the leaflets were circulated by Ansar-e Hezbollah on the fringes of the prayer meeting. It notes websites and Facebook pages calling for Green activists to show up at the office.

1700 GMT: Another Rift in Parliament. This time it's over the post-election death toll. Press TV is reporting:

A senior lawmaker says he will put forth a detailed list of those who were killed in the street violence. Morteza Alviri, a...member of the special committee investigating the death and detention of election protestors, said he would list all individuals killed in the demonstrations that spiraled out of control....

His remarks come only days after Alaeddin Boroujerdi, Head of the Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, said the committee's list of the death toll had been proven “inconclusive”.

1440 GMT: An Important Friday Prayer Correction. Ahmed Khatami did name one of the "enemies" doing the Devil's work in his address. He referred to the now-famous and very significant letter from Mehdi Karroubi, which has alleged abuse of detainees, claiming that it was a "letter of diversion" doing "the work of the USA and Israel". Khatami said Iran's judiciary explicitly ruled that the claims were a lie, a Parliamentar special committee said that the claims were a lie, "so all this article said is a lie".

1355 GMT: An EA correspondent offers the following, based on Mowj-e-Sabz, on the delay of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani's appointment as head of Iran's judiciary (1220 GMT):

Larijani's inauguration has been delayed because he has requested the complete termination of judicial inquiries and investigations of political prisoners arrested after June 12 before he assumes office. According to the prosecutor general, Ayatollah Dorri-Najafabadi, Larijani wants to start with a clean slate, and this request was taken to the Supreme leader.

To an extent, this can be seen as a joint effort by the Larijanis, Ali and Mohammad Sadegh, to distance themselves from Ahmadinejad and avoid being lumped together with him. Given the ostensible closeness between Ali and Sadegh, I expect Ahmadinejad to be in for a bumpy ride in Parliament should he bethe reason for Sadegh's delayed start as head of judiciary.

The article adds, however, that Mohammad Sadegh has a lot of opponents within the Qom seminary system, who have raised doubts on his theological prowess and on whether he can actually run the judiciary in an impartial way given his young age and thin academic profile.

1350 GMT: Fereshteh Ghazi reports that "several Majlis lawmakers confirmed...reports", raised in Mehdi Karroubi's letter, of sexual abuse of detainees; "they added, however, that they had been banned from discussing the matter".

1320 GMT: The "reformist" site Norooz News is reporting that President Ahmadinejad and his supporters tabled a proposal for the arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi and "10 other leaders of the reform movement", including some unspecified members of the reformist association Rowhaniooon Mobarez, at the National Security Council. The plan was pushed through, despite opposition within the Council, but then shelved by the "highest authorities of state" (a likely reference to the Supreme Leader) as this could lead to the "collapse of the political system".

1255 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz, the website of the Green movement, claims, from "an informed source in the Ministry of Science", that Tehran University and other universities will be closed this semester to prevent student protests.

1220 GMT: Iranian Labor News Agency reports that the installation of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani as head of Iran's judiciary (see separate entry), scheduled for tomorrow, has been delayed. No rescheduled time has been announced.

1105 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi's website Ghalam News is down. There is concern that this may be that may be in the aftermath of an attack by hackers.

1045 GMT: It appears that the Fars report (1030 GMT) downplayed the references to the opposition in Ahmed Khatami's Friday prayer address. Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting summarises the speech as a call to Iranians to maintain their "consciousness of conspiracy". Khatami said that people "now know the enemy of the Islamic system" with its "tales of war and the arrogance of the government".

1040 GMT: Reuters, however, does give an indication of Khatami's specific attention to the post-election crisis and, significantly, the issues of detainees and trials: "Iranians expect the judiciary to act strongly and firmly and not to yield to Western pressure [to release detainees]."

As we predicted in our first update this morning (0630 GMT), "[Khatami's address will be] an important clue that the regime may refuse to give any ground. If so, that could be a significant blunder.....It won’t be a question of how many protestors come out on the streets today. It will be a question of how many are brought out on future days by the regime’s continued intransigence."

1030 GMT: Fars News has posted its summary of Ayatollah Ahmed Khatami's Friday prayer address. Khatami spoke of "the devil's methods" of creating differences between people. Khatami referred to Satan's "working tools and facilities" to justify sin, guilt, and humiliation and to make the devout forget God.

Khatami, at least in Fars' summary, did not specify who exactly were the "working tools and facilities" of the devil, leaving it to listeners to draw their own conclusions.

0845 GMT: The Iraq Dimension? Tabnak reports, from "an informed source close to Hashemi Rafsanjani", that Rafsanjani recently met Seyed Abdolaziz Hakim, the head of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, in Hakim's house in north Tehran.

Ostensibly, Rafsanjani visited to enquire about the health of Hakim, who has been in Iran for a year for treatment of cancer. However, Tabnak's source said that Rafsanjani also stressed that it was essential that, at this time, the Iraqis should maintain their unity in forming a new Shia coalition.

The big question, however, is not what was discussed about Iraq's politics but about Iran's in the meeting, which also included Hakim's son, Seyed Mohsen Hakim. The encounter follows the intervention of Iraq-based Ayatollah Ali Sistani, with its oblique criticism of Iran's Supreme Leader, and reported meetings between Rafsanjani and Sistani earlier in the post-election crisis.

0630 GMT: This Friday opens with a strange sense of uncertainty. Thursday may have been a relatively quiet one in this crisis, but it still introduced three issues that may or may not mark a new phase in the challenge to the Iranian regime. Two of these, each of which could be turn into high political drama, are being considered in separate analyses: 1) "Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and Detainees" and 2) "New Move Against the Supreme Leader?"

The third issue, the developments in and around Friday prayers in Tehran, will be tracked in our updates. Hashemi Rafsanjani may no longer be leading the prayers, but the withdrawal does not reduce today to a non-event. To the contrary, Green movement activists are calling for a show of protest. And then there is the presence of the "replacement" leader of prayers, Ayatollah Ahmed Khatami.

Khatami has already make his mark in this post-election crisis when he called from the prayer platform for harsh treatment, including the death penalty, for demonstrators. And yesterday, speaking to the clerics of the Political-Ideological Organization of the Ministry of Defense, he turned his attention to one of the "ringleaders", Mehdi Karroubi, and his letter alleging mistreatment of detainees:

If a person libels someone with allegations of sexual abuse, then he deserves to be punished for libel. If someone libels the system by saying that rape takes place in prisons, then he must either prove it or, if he cannot, then the system must press charges and the public prosecutor must act.

If allegations are proven with witnesses, then, without any considerations, the perpetrators must be severely punished. But, what if they are not proven? How long should the system remain silent, in the face of such attacks?

Interpretation? First, Khatami's statement is a tip-off that, as we noted in our separate analysis this morning, the regime is feeling the pressure from Karroubi's letter, especially now that Hashemi Rafsanjani has used it to get a response from the judiciary.

But second, and more important, this is an important clue that the regime may refuse to give any ground. If so, that could be a significant blunder. At several points in this crisis, Iranian leaders could have eased the situation by offering some concession to the demands of protestors. And on each occasion --- the Supreme Leader's prayer address on 19 June; the refusal to sanction any demonstration as legal; the mis-handling of the Guardian Council's "recount" of the vote; the uncertain response to the "40th Day" memorial on 30 July; the insistence on holding the Tehran trails--- those leaders have not only refused to take even a minor step towards compromise, they have shaken a fist at the opposition.

Now, as the regime is faced once more with a possibile avenue to a settlement --- this time over the treatment of detainees --- Ahmed Khatami is indicating that the reply of "No" will be shouted out. If he does so from his Friday prayer platform today, it won't be a question of how many protestors come out on the streets today. It will be a question of how many are brought out on future days by the regime's continued intransigence.

Text: Latest Karroubi Statement on Detainees, Rafsanjani, and Larijani (13 August)

The Latest from Iran (14 August): Just Another Prayer Day?
Is the Challenge to the Regime Alive? Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and Detainees

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The saga of Mehdi Karroubi's letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani on detainees moves on. We've analysed the political significance, after Hashemi Rafsanjani pressed the Iranian judiciary for action, in a separate post. In an interview with Saham News, Karroubi spoke about the letter and Rafsanjani's response:

Those [critics of my letters and their allegations] who are making the atmosphere of society tense should instead try to provide a safe and calm space [for those who are abused] and try to put together an independent delegation of individuals to investigate these abuses. The delegation should be comprised of individuals whom the abused prisoners can trust so that they can relate to the delegation how they have been treated. The abused prisoners must be convinced that the members of this delegation will defend their rights to the end.

I had many reasons to write to Mr. Rafsanjani: First, he has close contact with the Supreme Leader and therefore I am sure that he will convey these problems to the Supreme Leader. Secondly, Mr. Rafsanjani himself has criticised the recent events and at the Friday prayers he stated his complaints and even asked for the freedom of the detainees. Thirdly, I have already written to the Minister of Information and the head of the judiciary and [their behavior] led me to write to [Rafsanjani], who is both the head of the Expediency Council and the Assembly of Experts. Fourthly, I have known Mr Rafsanjani since the conception and gestation of the Islamic Revolution and I have continuously befriended him and worked both before and after the revolution.

I have the right to write to him. this has nothing to do with our personal differences, because I believe, regardless of our personal differences, that Mr. Rafsanjani occupies an immensely respectable and special position and therefore he may be able to do something. These gentlemen who are currently defaming and verbally abusing Mr. Rafsanjani must have forgotten that he was one of the closest friends of Imam [Khomeini]....

When I sent the letter, due to the horrific scale [of abuse] I expected him [Rafsanjani] to respond promptly; however, it took more than 10 days for Mr. Rafsanjani to respond. I am not saying this to complain, I just assumed that either he was not willing to answer my letter or that due to the current situation in society and his own personal considerations he decided not to involve himself in this mess. Therefore as a response to the torrent of alarming news that I was continuously receiving, I decided to make this letter public.

Of course I later understood that Mr. Rafsanjani had referred the letter to Mr. Shahroudi and he had ordered him to act upon my letter. Mr. Rafsanjani has also asked the head prosecutor, Mr. Dorri-Najafabadi, to contact me and state that he will send me [Karroubi] individuals to obtain my opinions and reflect them to the relevant officials....

When this letter was published many different reactions occurred. Some people welcomed this letter, because they said that this letter provided an atmosphere for those who had issues to say [regarding this abuse] to come forward....Of course there were also those who were incensed by this letter, and these individuals tried to create an atmosphere so that no one would dare to refer to these atrocities. An atmosphere in which no one dares to protest if people's children are killed or prisoners are insulted or the families of the prisoners are threatened and beaten up in front of the prison, people's homes are invaded, and their possesions damaged. Why instead of making such a horrendously terrifying atmosphere that oppresively silences the people, do you do not create a space in which people who have complaints have the opportunity to air their greivances in a free and safe atmosphere?

Will it not have been better if some of you instead of using profanity would have studied the main issue? Instead you are claiming that my letter is a pack of lies without even forming a committee to investigate these allegations....I am ashamed to bring up such instances of abuse."

....Although I have a great deal of respect towards Mr. Larijani, the head of parliament...and towards Mr. Boroujerdi, the head of the National Security Commission of Parliament, I must point out to these gentlemen that before they deny and dismiss the contents of my letter in haste they should have at least contacted me or asked me to provide witnesses. Maybe I could have provided some information that you do not have. How can you state that what I have written is pure fabrication without even setting up an investigation?...In a situation where even the head of parliament...is willing to label an issue as a falsehood without even researching and investigating it, how can individuals dare bring up these issues?

....It is 20 years that I, an insignificant member of the establishment, have tried to defend the civic and legal rights of the people and I assert that these defamation tactics will not deflect me from the pathway that I believe in.

Iran: Is the Challenge to the Regime Alive? Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and Detainees

The Latest from Iran (14 August): Just Another Prayer Day?

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The immediate significance of Mehdi Karroubi's letter, as it passed from Karroubi to Secretary of Parliament Ali Larijani and then, via Hashemi Rafsanjani, to the head of Iran's judiciary was that it kept the detainee issue at the top of the political agenda. But, of course, what lies behind that issue is the extent of the challenge to the Iranian system. And there uncertainty arises.

Foremost among these are the plans of Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was supposed to be leading Friday prayers today. I find it extremely difficult to read the former President, whose political moves can be very intricate. So my initial framing of his role yesterday as a "messenger" passing the Karroubi letter to judiciary head Ayatollah Shahroudi --- with its conclusion that Rafsanjani had now been "contained" in this crisis --- was off the mark.

EA colleagues have raised two very different possibilities. The first is that Rafsanjani is having to show great caution because the regime is increasing its pressure on him. Here, the assertion that the former President would have been arrested if he had led Friday prayers is an unhelpful exaggeration. Instead, the hints are that the Government will investigate charges of corruption, beginning with members of Rafsanjani's family. This hint has been around before and after the election, and it resurfaces at times --- such as this week --- when the regime is feeling pressure.

That, however, points to a second explanation. Rafsanjani who is maintaining his challenge to the system but in more subtle ways. His passing of the Karroubi letter to Shahroudi, as we noted in our last updates yesterday, could be seen as a powerful signal that the former President was slapping down the head of the judiciary for the regime's inaction and letting him know that something would now be done. Shahroudi accepted that signal and responded that there would be an investigation of the detainee issue, beginning with examination of Karroubi's allegations.

Shahroudi, however, leaves office tomorrow, to be replaced by Mohammad Sadegh Larijani. Larijani is known as a "hard-liner"; at the same time, he is disliked by President Ahmadinejad's supporters, to the extent that they have tried to block his appointment this week by spreading the story that he told the Supreme Leader of widespread "cheating" in the election.

So another uncertainty can be added: how seriously will the judiciary pursue the Karroubi letter? The same question, when put to the Parliament, got the inconclusive reply of another Larijani, Speaker of the Parliament Ali, that he needed to see  more evidence. If the judiciary follows suit, then the next moves in this lengthening chess match are up to Karroubi and Rafsanjani.

The Latest from Iran (13 August): The Challenge Rebuilds

The Latest from Iran (12 August): Two Months Later

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2105 GMT: And one interesting tidbit from the evening press in Iran. Press TV reports, using Parleman News, that Iranian journalists are putting their own pressure on the Government over detainees:

Iranian journalists have called on the truth-finding committee for the post-election unrest to facilitate a meeting between detained opposition activist Saeed Hajjarian and the media. On Journalist Day, parliamentary reporters and political correspondents meeting with a high-ranking member of the committee Alaeddin Boroujerdi requested a meeting with Hajjarian.

2100 GMT: However, even if the news is slow, the Karroubi-Rafsanjani story still has explosive potential. An EA colleague hauls me up over my earlier portrayal of Rafsanjani as "messenger":

Rafsanjani is not merely passing letters! In Iranian bureaucracy, when an individual deals with an official who is stonewalling, you send a letter to a person who is considered to be that official's superior, explaining the said official's behavior and
asking the superior to interfere directly. The superior then writes a message on top of the original letter directing the official to respond to the original request. In this particular instance Karroubi has sent a letter to Rafsanjani, implying that Rafsanjani is Shahroudi's superior, and Rafsanjani has effectively sent Shahroudi a directive not a request. I do not think that this implies a "passive and limited Rafsanjani".

2030 GMT: Apologies for the lack of updates, but there is little visible political movement beyond the negotiations over the Karroubi letter. The Los Angeles Times is filling the gap by sensationalising an interview with former First Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. CNN is playing up "U.N. experts say Iran tortured to extract confessions", with three United Nations issuing general opinions (since a detailed investigation is impossible) on the detentions, confessions, and trials. And Tehran Bureau speculates on the next Minister of Intelligence.

1645 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi's party newspaper, Etemade Melli, has the next part of the Karroubi-Rafsanjani story. Karroubi say that the head of Iran's judiciary, Ayatollah Shahroudi, has asked the prosecutor general to contact Karroubi and to send people to take the points about abuse of detainees back to Iranian authorities

1545 GMT: And a Rafsanjani Response? Press TV's website is reporting, from the Iranian newspaper Jomhuriye Eslami, that Hashemi Rafsanjani has now acted on the 29 July letter from Mehdi Karroubi, calling for investigation of abuses of detainees. Rafsanjani passed it to Iran's head of the judiciary, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi.

Shahroudi supposedly replied that such treatment had not happened in detention centers under the supervision of the judicial branch. Rafsanjani's firm response? He passed Shahroudi's response back to Karroubi.

If the report is true, the former President has reduced himself to the role of passing messages between others. However, "if true" needs to be kept in mind --- I suspect the regime relishes the image of a now passive and limited Rafsanjani.

1535 GMT: Another Letter to Rafsanjani. An organisation representing hundreds of former members of Parliament has written to Hashemi Rafsanjani demanding reviews of the "activities and performance of Iranian institutions, security and military forces, and the judicial system in recent events". The reviews are of "fundamental importance...to protect public trust in the Islamic Republic and the Constitution."

1530 GMT: There are reports from Iran (link in Farsi) that more than 30 detainees will begin a hunger strike from Saturday unless there is a review of their situation.

1045 GMT: A relatively quiet day so far. The one intervention is a curious one, with the Supreme Leader telling officials, “If I was to give you one advice, it would be for you to increase your insight....If you do not have deep insight, if you cannot distinguish your friends, if you cannot spot your enemies, then your attacks, dialogue and your actions may target your friends instead of your enemies."

The curiosity lies not in the remarks, which are fairly anodyne --- put aside personal and party interests for the good of the Republic, watch out for foreign threats, etc. --- but in the timing. Ayatollah Khamenei's meeting with the officials was on 27 July.

So why release a summary of the remarks more than two weeks later?

0740 GMT: More on the Karroubi-Larijani Story. A member of Mehdi Karroubi's party, Etemade Melli, has reiterated that Karroubi will soon present Ali Larijani with evidence regarding the abuse of prisoners. The party member adds that individuals who have told Karroubi of their abuse are willing to testify to Parliament. Larijani has responded that he would like to listen to the statements of these individuals privately before having them give evidence to the Parliament.

0720 GMT: Intrigue of the Morning --- The "Other" Larijani, the Judiciary, and Election Fraud. Yesterday we noted a claim that a member of the Guardian Council had told the Supreme Leader of his belief that there was widespread "cheating" in the Presidential election. At the same time, we picked up a rumour, which we held back from reporting, that the appointment of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani (the brother of Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani) as head of Iran's judiciary was not a done deal.

Well, today put 2 and 2 together and get a (possibly mischievous) 4. The Green movement's outlet Mowj-e-Sabz claims:

Recently [Mohammad Sadegh] Larijani has made quite a few unpalatable statements in some private gatherings: namely, that as a member of the Guardian Council he was against validating the results of the last election and he did not believe that the election was conducted in an honest fashion. This has caused some of Ahmadinejad's supporters to vehemently oppose Larijani's appointment to the post; these opponents may have sufficient influence to sway the Supreme Leader's opinions away from appointing Larijani, even though Larijani has an established track record as a hardcore conservative. Larijani has also blatantly stated that the resolution of all issues regarding the recent detainees is a necessary precondition for him to take the job, another position that will not endear him to the AN fraction.

0530 GMT: 24 hours ago, I was uncertain where the opposition could and would go after the setback over Hashemi Rafsanjani's withdrawal from Friday prayers in Tehran. Yesterday's events provided an answer, culminating in a challenge --- still unnoted by the media outside Iran --- to the authority of the Supreme Leader.

The biggest clues did not come from the Bazaar demonstrations. While there were reports throughout the day of a gathering in the market, with claims of up to 80 percent of shops closed, the protests were too fragmented to have a visible impact, given the restrictions on news coverage. No video emerged; indeed, activists were so anxious to get some images that a falsely-dated clip circulated last night, and some reliable onlookers (including me) fell for it.

At the risk of sounding cold, to have an impact beyond the spot, the demonstrations need an organising “hook” --- an event, a rallying symbol, a public figure. And, for the moment, none of those is really present. There is talk of marching to the Tehran prayer site tomorrow despite Rafsanjani's withdrawal, but the chatter appears more hopeful rather than co-ordinated.

That does not means, however, that the challenge to the regime has finally fizzled out. To the contrary, Wednesday was dominated by rolling news of another show of resistance from political and religious figures.<

Once again, some of that came from “within” the Establishment. President Ahmadinejad's troubles with the majority “principlist” bloc are now on the surface, and the clock is ticking: he has six days to get his Cabinet choices ratified or the prospect of new elections arises. Individual MPs kept up the pressure, and Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaie added some high-profile criticism, including the call for firing and arrest of any officials involved with detainee abuse.

That issue of detainees is also galvanising for opposition politicians. Mehdi Karroubi is now in the public lead, with his letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani alleging abuses and calling for an enquiry on the frontline. Early yesterday, Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani's call for evidence appeared to have checked Karroubi, but the “reformist” leader took back the initiative last night with the promise to provide information.

Mir Hossein Mousavi added an important statement in the afternoon, turning the “foreign threat” issue against the regime. (We've posted extracts in a separate entry.) The appearance was important for several reasons: it brought Mousavi, who had been somewhat quieted since he was turned away from the “40th Day” memorial at Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery on 30 July, back to the forefront. And it threw down the challenge to the Government: do you really want to maintain the high-profile risk of making your case through the Tehran trials, as well as the threats to opposition leaders from institutions such as the Republican Guard and supporting media?

However, the most intriguing intervention came late in the day in a statement, still little-noticed outside the country, by Ayatollah Dastgheib. His call for an emergency meeting of the 86-member Assembly of Experts was not so significant in its timing --- the Assembly has a regular gathering scheduled within the next month --- as in its language. Dastgheib came out openly against the authority of Ayatollah Khamenei, criticising the Supreme Leader for his handling of the post-election crisis and more broadly for his supervision of the Islamic Republic.

In the opinion of one of my Enduring America colleagues, this will be the most significant meeting of the Assembly since the selection of Ayatollah Khamenei as Supreme Leader in 1989. It is a remarkable shift six months ago at the last meeting, it was Hashemi Rafsnanjani fending off a challenge to his leadership of the Assembly. Now, only a few weeks after the pro-regime clique again failed to topple Rafsanjani, it is the Supreme Leader who may be in the dock.

This does not mean that the opposition is on the point of toppling President Ahmadinejad, let alone Khamenei. Even Dastgheib's initiative, which was complemented by another statement by Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani on the legitimacy of a system which mistreated detainees, is more about keeping up pressure than raising the likelihood of a majority Assembly vote against the Iranian leadership. And the regime still has its own pressure points to exploit: there were signs yesterday, with an open media allegation against Rafsanjani's brother, that the campaign against the former President may be ramped up.

What can be said,after yesterday, however, is that the story is not over. Welcome to the next chapter.....