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Entries in Mir Hossein Mousavi (39)

Tuesday
Aug252009

The Latest from Iran (25 August): The Trials Resume

NEW The 4th Tehran Trial: The Tehran Bureau Summary
NEW Video: The 4th Tehran Trial (25 August)
The Tehran Trial: The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani
Iran Interview: Mousavi Advisor Beheshti on The Election
The Latest from Iran (24 August): The 4-D Chess Match

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IRAN TRIALS 4

1940 GMT: Mehdi Hashemi, the son of Hashemi Rafsanjani, has asked for time on state television to refute the charges made against him in today's Tehran trial.

1830 GMT: Press TV English's website is now featuring the testimony of Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh (1500 GMT). It is playing up the angle that Tajbakhsh, who had been with the Soros Foundation in Iran, conspired with former President Khatami and Mohammad-Javad Zarif, the former Iranian Ambassador to the United Nations, from 2006 on "velvet revolution" after a meeting with George Soros: “Because of the support of some officials from the reformist camp…a safe place was created for the cooperation of domestic and foreign forces…and American political parties and non-governmental organisations found a way to start activities in Iran."

1745 GMT: #MediaFail. OK, I've gone for a run, had a shower, grabbed a cup of tea, chatted with the wife, checked out the Israel-Palestine latest, and....

CNN still has not noticed there was a trial in Tehran today. (OK, at 1737 GMT, one of their Twitter feeds did figure out "Iran resumed Tuesday its mass trial of political reformists", but they have yet to get anyone on the website to notice.)

On a related note, I have yet to see one "Western" media outlet recognise that Hashemi Rafsanjani, as well as the "reformists", was targeted in the proceedings today.

1730 GMT: Freelance journalist and blogger Fariba Pajooh has been arrested.

1720 GMT: One Non-Confession. Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, the Deputy Secretary General of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been unrepentant after today's trials. He explained that, as he was arrested within 2-3 hours of the election results, he could not have been involved in post-election disturbances. He declared, "I have always been a reformist but I am pro-Islamic Republic."



1550 GMT: Mehdi Hashemi, Hashemi Rafsanjani's son, has issued a short but blunt denial of the charges of money laundering and electoral manipulation levelled at him in the Tehran trial today.

1530 GMT: Days after public allegations that security forces forced the staff of Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery to bury 40 bodies of slain protestors, the managing director of the cemetery has been fired.

1525 GMT: And now Press TV English headlines, "Rafsanjani son implicated in fresh Iran trials". It focuses on the testimony of Hamzeh Karimi with the claim "that the Iranian Fuel Conservation Organization's assets were used to finance Rafsanjani presidential campaign" in 2005: “Mehdi Hashemi believed that election in Iran were financed with government funds. He did not believe in spending private savings for the election. So they step up a system for forgery and document falsification."

1515 GMT: No Doubt About It --- Target Rafsanjani. IRNA's lead story is a long overview of the trial today, and its headline goes after Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi. Another family member, brother-in-law Abdullah Jafar Ali Jasebi, a former University chancellor, is also criticised.

1500 GMT: Bringing Out the American. The next showpiece testimony, presented in Fars News, is that of Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh, identified as the representative of the Soros Foundation in Iran. (For the regime, "Soros Foundation", with its Open Democracy Project, embodies "velvet revolution".) The objective? Tajbaksh's "evidence" that he had continued meetings with Mohammad Khatami after the latter's departure from office in 2005 apparently links the former President to the foreign efforts at regime change in Tehran.

1440 GMT: The head of the Parliament Research Center, Ahmad Tavakoli, has called for the lifting of the ban on the "reformist" newspaper Etemade Melli and the trying of Tehran's chief prosecutor Saeed Mortazavi in military judge's court for his failure in "restoring public rights and promoting justice and legitimate freedoms" in this case and others.

1400 GMT: The Fightback Begins? Mark  down this date: 18 September. If I'm right, that is the last Friday of Ramadan (if I'm wrong, feel free to correct). It is also Qods Day, which is traditionally a day when Hashemi Rafsanjani leads ceremonies.

Mowj-e-Sabz has just declared that this will also be true this year, with Rafsanjani leading Friday prayers in Tehran and the Green movement preparing to march.

1345 GMT: A Quick Note on Media Coverage. Reuters has been in the lead on "Western" coverage of the trial, though it has little beyond Saeed Hajjarian, and it is still unaware of the regime's accusations against the Rafsanjani family. Al Jazeera English is still stuck with an early-morning overview, as is the BBC.

And CNN International is hopeless. Its Twitter outlet tweeted an hour ago about "the latest on our Iran wire": the story, from 0742 GMT, is on Mehdi Karroubi's allegations of sexual abuse of detainees.

1320 GMT: We were going to post a special analysis tomorrow morning of the significance of today's developments but, frankly, the move against Hashemi Rafsanjani as well as the attempt to break the reformists is so stunning that it cannot be too soon to highlight what may be a defining showdown in this crisis. So we've now published a snap analysis, "The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani".

1220 GMT: Farhad Tajari, a member of the Parliamentary National Security Committee has told the Islamic Republic News Agency, "After a meeting with [Mehdi] Karoubi yesterday and based on our thorough and complete investigation.....We believe the claims [of sexual abuse of detainees] are baseless."

1215 GMT: Press TV English's website has published its first account of the trial, focusing on the Hajjarian statement, read by fellow Islamic Iran Participation Front member Saeed Shariati. Hajjarian did not admit --- "" have never been involved in cruelty and enmity towards the Iranian nation and the Islamic establishment" --- but expressed "hatred with all the moves that threatened the country's security". He then resigned from the IIPF.

Ominously the prosecutor called for the "maximum punishment", i.e., the death penalty, for Hajjarian.

1145 GMT: An EA correspondent confirms that the lead item on the Islamic Republic News Agency website claims, from today's "confession" of journalist Masoud Bastani, that the now-defunct website www.jomhouriyat.com was a "war room" for attacks against the Ahmadinejad Government and that the idea of claiming fraud in the election was passed to it through Mehdi Hashemi, Rafsanjani's son.

1140 GMT: Meanwhile, more "confessions" in the trial. Fars is now featuring the testimony of Shahab Tabatabai, the head of the youth branch of the Islamic Iran Participation Front. The headline claim is that Mir Hossein Mousavi suffered from the "illusion" that he would win a first-round victory in the Presidential election.

1130 GMT: We're checking the accounts of the trial with the help of correspondents. Here is the latest reading of the allegations linking Mir Hossein Mousavi and Hashemi Rafanjani: "Rafsanjani and Mousavi knew Ahmadinejad was winner when the preliminary count showed Ahmadinejad had a wide lead. They decided to create a 'velvet revolution' and demonstrate 'vote fraud'. Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi, was involved with Saham News, which was coordinating the demonstrations with the BBC, and he was geting paid through the Azad University in the form of a cheque."

1100 GMT: It looks like we read this correctly. Rah-e-Sabz summarises that the indictment and "confessions" implicate Hasemi Rafsanjani's nephew, Ali Hashemi, for stimulating demonstrations and his son, Mehdi Hashemi, for spreading disinformation.

1030 GMT: If our translation is correct, the regime has used the "confessions" of journalists Hamzeh Karami and Masoud Bastani not only to draw the picture of a foreign-directed network for velvet revolution and not only to allege the implementation of this through Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign, but also to implicate Hashemi Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi. IRNA also carries an account of the effort "to create doubt and undermine the Ahmadinejad Government's decisions".

1020 GMT: Away from the trial, members of Parliament are holding meetings with President Ahmadinejad's Ministerial nominees in advance of votes of confidence beginning Sunday.

The Press TV article, quoting "principlist" MPs, indicates that the chances of Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar, currently Minister of Defence but proposed to move to Interior, depend on his speech to Parliament: “The controversy surrounding Najjar's military background and how it will affect the interior ministry all depends on how he will defend his programs on the voting day in Parliament.” Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki is in better shape, though approval is not certain, and Minister of Industry Ali Akbar Mehrabian may remain if he can provide “an acceptable explanation” about his involvement in a fraud case.

1010 GMT: Fars is featuring more "confessions" from defendants, all of which point towards a foreign-instigated "velvet revolution". One defendant has spoken of the involvement of the US Government-funded Radio Farda and training at a site in Czechoslovakia.

It appears, though we cannot be certain, that at least one of the statements may refer to the involvement of sites connected to Hashemi Rafsanjani and, in particular, his son Mehdi Hashemi in this alleged conspiracy. We are double-checking translations to verify.

0925 GMT: Fars News Agency has now published a set of photographs from the 4th Tehran trial.

0740 GMT: Press TV has also published the general indictment of the defendants, based on their alleged statements, in the 4th Tehran trial. "Before the election, statistical evidence was provided that the difference [between candidates] was so great that [President] Ahmadinejad did not need to cheat"; however, the defendants claimed fraud to implement the "velvet revolution". The had "a direct relationship with the colonial and television networks of the BBC and the advertising propaganda machine of the British regime". Even while the voting was in progress, police closed "illegal networks". (Inadvertently, this claim highlights the significance of the testimony of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti, which we carry today in a separate entry.)

0730 GMT: Fars News Agency has published, from Press TV, the statement of Saeed Hajjarian in the 4th Tehran trial. Hajjarian says he is innocent but apologised for "formidable errors" during and after the election. He then goes into a lengthy exposition of the "Western theory of velvet revolution" as "a serious lesson for all political activists".

0700 GMT: Reuters has first summary in English of the 4th Tehran trial. It lists the defendants we name below but, citing Islamic Republic News Agency, says, "Saaed Hajjarian, a former deputy intelligence minister turned architect of Iran's reform movement, was also among the accused".

0545 GMT: The fourth Tehran trial of post-election political detainees has opened, and there are some high-profile reformist politicians, activists, and journalists and the first Iranian-American to stand trial, Kian Tajbakhsh. According to Fars News, other defendants include Behzad Nabavi, Mohsen Safaei Farahani, Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, Mohsen Mirdamadi, Saeed Shariati, Mohsen Aminzadeh, Mostafa Tajzadeh, Shahab Tabatabai, Masoud Bastani, and Saeed Laylaz.

We're checking to see if Saeed Hajjarian, as rumoured over the last 72 hours, is also being tried today. Hajjarian's lawyer said he was forced to resign from the case was replaced by an attorney appointed by the State.
Tuesday
Aug252009

The Tehran Trial: The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani

The Latest from Iran (25 August): The Trials Resume

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IRAN TRIALS 3We'll have a full analysis tomorrow after EA staff can consult on today's developments, but I am stunned. Before today, I had said that this trial would be an important signal: if the regime (read Ahmadinejad and Revolutionary Guard --- the Supreme Leader's position in all this is uncertain) had wanted compromise, then this would be a relatively low-profile occasion, having been delayed from last week; if it wanted confrontation, then it would put leading reformists like Saeed Hajjarian in the dock.

So when the regime played its first card today, prosecuting not only Hajjarian but all the leading reformist politicians and associates of former President Khatami, it threw down the challenge: We're Going to Break You.

Then, however, the Ahmadinejad wing of the Government had a surprise. It is now declaring that it is time for Hashemi Rafsanjani to go into his box and, more than a month after the dramatic Friday prayers that challenged the President, be quiet. Frankly, the allegations against Rafsanjani family members were so stunning that I did not trust my translation. But there is no mistake: as one of my EA colleagues predicted in late July, the regime would get at the former President by attacking his family.

Rafsanjani, it appears, wanted to use Ramadan to get some space for his manoeuvres, delaying the Assembly of Experts meeting and making his carefully-worded statement at the Expediency Council on Saturday. That space is now gone: he will have to react to today's events. As will, for that matter, the leaders of the Green movement: for all of Mehdi Karroubi's work in elevating the abuse of detainees issue and Mir Hosssein Mousavi's stumbling but still-present efforts for a Green Path of Hope, they now have to face a regime which wants to stop them through the punishment of the high-profile defendants who were in court today.
Tuesday
Aug252009

Iran Interview: Mousavi Advisor Beheshti on The Election

The Latest from Iran (25 August): The Trials Resume

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BEHESHTIIn an interview last weekend with Etemad newspaper, Mir Hossein Mousavi's Alireza Beheshti reviewed the events on Election Day and up to mid-July. The interview is a treasure trove of information, indicating both the strategy of the Mousavi campaign and that of the regime. It offers new revelations on the course of the protests and on the co-ordination between Mousavi and Hashemi Rafsanjani before Friday prayers on 14 July. Behesti concludes by answering, "If they want to arrest you, are you ready?"

"Yes, not only me but also all the members of my family."

(The original translation is on the Facebook pages of Mir Hossein Mousavi. We have made minor alterations to English grammar where necessary for clarity.)


Q. You are one of the closest associates of Mr. Mousavi. What happened at central headquarters on the Election Day? What was Mr. Mousavi doing on that day?

A. The headquarters was active in several areas, but on that day the most important activity was around the committee to safeguard the votes; this committee had prepared a system to have direct online communication with our observers at voting stations.

Of course, only a limited number of our observers were given permission to be present at the voting stations. When the authorities say, “More than 40,000 Mousavi representatives were present at the voting stations,” the reality is slightly different. We had around 40,000 volunteers and requested permissions for them, but only 25,000 of the volunteers were given permissions and badges. The rest were not issued badges and were not allowed to be present at the polling booths. Even many of the volunteers with badges were asked to leave the voting stations. They tried to prevent our observers from doing their work.

We had predicted the communication authority to disrupt the wireless service, especially SMS service on that day, so we had contacted them in advance about this and they had given us assurance of service on the election day. We also added more landlines in the headquarters. On the night before the Election Day, they shut down all wireless services, including SMS messaging. When on the evening before the Election Day, we tried to use the landlines we had set up for the committee we realized all 300 landlines were out of service.

Mr. Mousavi was also present and involved with the efforts of the committee for safeguard of votes.

Q. When you saw the disruption of telephone services did you contact and seek advice from legal authorities?

A. The headquarters staff and Mr. Mousavi himself had many contacts with authorities about these issues before, during, and after the Election Day.

Q. Who was contacted, in which office?

A. The Interior Ministry was contacted, we sent representatives to the ministry. We consulted the Guardian Council, the Ministry of Justice, even contacted Ayatollah Khamenei’s representative seeking advice. We did everything we could but didn’t see a genuine will to resolve the issues.

At the same time from whatever information our observers were able to send back, we were receiving news of massive support among voters, positive and encouraging remarks of supporters of Mr. Mousavi returning from voting stations. It was around 2 p.m. when we noticed there are more serious issues in the voting process. Until then the most worrisome issue was the news of shortages of voter registration forms in cities, even large cities like Tabriz and Shiraz. There was also the issue of extending voting hours. In most previous elections, the authorities always extended voting hours to maximize participation but in this election things seemed different. In some districts they closed the voting booths as early as 7:30 pm and stopped the voting activity. This was very strange.

Q. What happened at 2 pm?

It appeared that the authorities were no longer interested in counting actual votes, at that point the focus had shifted to “computer vote count”, something which was supposed to be only used as an experiment.

Q. It has been said that Mr. Ali Larijani [Speaker of Parliament] called Mr. Mousavi on the Election Day and congratulated him for his victory, do you confirm that?

A. I don’t remember this particular call but I know on that day many officials and institutions called and congratulated Mr. Mousavi. The vote margin was so wide that no one could imagine the competition between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad could go into second round.

Q. Was there any congratulation call from government officials?

A. It's not on my mind at the moment.

Q. What happened that made Mr. Mousavi announce his victory at 11 p.m. on Election Day? This caused a lot of criticism from opposing candidates.

A. The official and pro-government media had announced an Ahmadinejad victory from early evening hours. We even had information that pro-Ahmadinejad newspapers had prepared their victory pages on Thursday [the day before the election]. In some cases they modified the pages so that they appeared neutral. It was obvious the election was taking an illegal turn. We had certain statistics, also had information through contacts that confirmed Mr. Mousavi is the winner. That’s why Mr. Mousavi decided to announce his victory.

Q. On Election Day we saw attacks and forced closure of Mr. Mousavi’s election headquarters by authorities. When you contacted the authorities, what was their reason for doing this?

A. One of the things that was very suspicious on election day was the raids against Mousavi’s election headquarters and their illegal closures. For example, the Gheytarieh headquarters and soon after that the central headquarters were closed by force without any official warrants. The authorities we contacted presented no answer or reason for doing this. Our inquiries about this were always one-way; we wrote letters and filed reports, but never heard any response or saw any action from authorities.

Q. Annoucement of the vote counts started at midnight and continued till 9 a.m. the next day [Saturday]. Between 9 a.m. and 12 noon there was no news. During this time what was the situation like at Mousavi’s headquarters and how was Mr. Mousavi?

A. We stayed awake until 5 a.m. then rested a little. We listened to the official news being broadcast. The reaction of the opposite side had become clear to us starting from 2 p.m. the previous day. That’s why we were no longer shocked from the news they were broadcasting but we were shocked to hear some of comments and reactions coming from the Guardian Council.

Q. On Saturday after the final results were announced, what was Mr. Mousavi’s plan of action, considering the vote statistics he had?

A. We couldn’t do anything because our contacts who were witness to voting irregularities were arrested on the same day. The headquarters staff were arrested within two days of the election and thrown in jail with false charges. On Saturday we were busy trying to find out who was arrested, why our headquarters were shut down, and looking into many other questions.

Q. But on the same day many people came out to protest on the streets, and some paid a heavy price. Where were Mr. Mousavi and his original team on that day and what were they doing?

A. On that day we had meetings, since it has always been Mr. Mousavi’s principle to avoid the violent confrontations and minimize the costs to people. We met to formulate a specific plan of action to reach our goals. On the other hand we did not, and still don’t, have the intention of overthrowing the rulers. We participated within the framework of the established system; our intention was that our protests remain within this framework.

Q. Naturally we saw shocking scenes of social unrest between the Election Day and June 15. For June 15 both Mr. Mousavi and Mr. Karoubi had requested legal permits to hold demonstrations, both were denied. Regardless, people held massive demonstrations on that day. Did you imagine such massive turnout?

A. No, surely we could not imagine the size of crowd that came to the demonstrations. As you said, both Mr. Mousavi and Mr. Karoubi had requested demonstration permits, and we did not get an answer, even until noon of that day we didn’t know if the requests would be granted or denied. At noon we received news that the permits would not be issued. Since we didn’t have access to national media we couldn’t inform people about this news and ask them not to come out. We also requested time on national television, but that request was not granted either. That’s why both Mr. Mousavi and Mr. Karoubi decided to participate in the demonstrations to help avoid probable violent clashes with security forces.

We had three ways to organize the protests. We avoided those that would result in violent clashes outside the established frameworks, and we chose the path of non-violent civil protest. People accepted that path in the June 15 demonstrations. This was exactly our intention. Another measure was that the main members of headquarters came to the street, and if people had gathered somewhere, talked to them and persuaded them to leave, but when we faced the huge wave of population, we ourselves joined. As the demonstration had no permit, we had not arranged any disciplinary committee, but we saw that people who attended the demonstration on June 15th could be present without any challenge and entanglement. Even the few people who chanted slogans outside the framework were controlled by the people themselves.

Before the election supporters of Mousavi and Ahmadinejad had faced each other in the main streets of the city [without any violence]. At that time I said to one of the friends in Kalameh Sabz newspaper, if this had happened early in the election, it would have definitely resulted in bloody conflict. This incident showed people attained a high level of political consciousness and understanding, and the brutalities which happened after the election were not the people`s fault.

Q. With regard to the great presence of people in the demonstration on June 15th, it apprared that the method of and approach to the election would be changed by the ruling powers, but such a change didn`t happen. Did you do anything to pursue those changes?

A. We pursued many courses of action. We arranged several meetings with many different legal authorities to make a general revision to the election because the demand of people was neither the change of regime nor the change of general structure of power, but their only demand was the change of the executive institution of the regime and government.

....[The ruling powers were] supposed to meet the request of people by using the legal tools but they did not. We were not hopeful about the Guardian Council that many of its members took up official positions in favour of Ahmadinejad before the election.

Q. There were reports that Mr Mousavi said if the election would be voided, he would`t nominate himself for the next round. Were these true?

A. This issue was that some persons in authority had personal problems with Mr. Mousavi. So Mr. Mousavi said: if you hold the election again and if your problem is me, I won’t nominate myself for the next round.

Q. Three days after the election, the representatives of candidates met the Supreme Leader. What happened in that session?

A. What was broadcast were the Supreme Leader`s words; the representatives` words were not published. In that session, the representatives of the three opposing candidates had serious objections to the election and asked for it to be voided, showing samples of violations and fraud in the election. What the leader said on that meeting was very encouraging and the following security approach treatment to the next demonstration was a good sign that the regime's moves would be peaceful.

Q. What happened on that Friday [19 June] that those event occurred and on Saturday [20 June], when the treatment became severe, violence increased, and the cost to people was much more extensive?

Q. ....People didn`t object to the system, they just object to the election that was inside the system, they didn`t demand the overthrow of the system. Neither people nor the candidates who took part in election of presidency of Islamic Republic of Iran didn`t ask for overthrow....However, the inference of the regime was that people wanted to overthrow the system and deconstruct it. This was the reason why such things happened on that Saturday and the security treatment was much more severe than before.

A. At this time there was no mention of [fromer President] Mr Hashemi [Rafsanjani], did Mr Mousavi had a visit with Mr Hashemi?

Q. No, because the problem was that of the candidates, not Hashemi's problem or even [former President Mohammad] Khatami`s. Because the issue was in relation to the election and there was no reason that those two should be involved.

Q. But after a time we saw that these persons were involved in protest?

A. Yes, when the security crackdown intensified and the issue of the future of the system was raised, Mr Hashemi as one of the supporters of the system and Mr Khatami entered the field. The kind of disagreeable [regime] behaviour toward people, the behaviour we did not want to see, happened unfortunately. We also knew if the atmosphere became more militarized, there wouldn`t be a place for civil methods.

Q. Each year through the advertising, the 7th of Tir [a square in Tehran] ceremony was held officially, but this year we saw in the Qoba mosque ceremony [28 June] the crowd of participants got to Shariati Street too. What is the reason?

A. Well, we ourselves held a ceremony each year, but in this ceremony Mr Mousavi was present and certainly the crowds of participants were very much larger. We did not expect such a crowd at all, and for this reason, the ceremony that was going to be held was conducted inside the mosque. By doing this, ulation, we couldn`t held the full ceremony, however. Mr [Presidential candidate Mehdi] Karoubi attended this ceremony, and Mr Mousavi was going to attend but he couldn`t pass through the streets for two reasons, one because of the congestion due to population and another because of security agents. In this event the only thing I could do was to get a speaker from the police to inform people that Mousavi could not attend.

Q. Did the security center contact you before the ceremony?

A. Yes, the security center were closer to us after suspending the Kalameh Sabz newspaper so they contacted us on alternate days .Before the ceremony in Qoba mosque, they contacted too and reminded us of taking care of the population and their objections. There was no violence in the Qoba mosque ceremony until the end .Unfortunately, when people moved toward Shariati Street, the treatment became violent.

Q. Why was Kalameh Sabz newspaper suspended?

A. The newspaper office contacted me and said that the security forces had came inside the editorial office. I went there....They searched everywhere, and when I asked why they did so, they answered that during the 7th of Tir [Square] demonstration [20 June?], some protesters had taken refuge here and some other people had been taking photographs up on the roof. Later I found out their claim was not true, but even if it was real, the press or news institution can take photographs of important events. If a reporter does not take photographs of such eventsm they should be asked why did not and where that reporter had been. What wrong is with taking photograph of a demonstration?

The head of one of the security teams came and asked us to sign some sheets of paper. On those sheets of paper, they had written that they had found some "dirty" compact disks and arrested a number of girls and boys. I didn`t sign them and asked when these events occurred here. Anyway, on that day the newspaper office was closed and the journalists came to get their salary.

Q. What happened when Mousavi attended Friday prayers [14 July]? Was he in coordination with Mr Hashemi [Rafsanjani]?

A. Yes, it had happened in coordination with Mr Hashemi. Mr Hashemi asked Mr Karoubi and Mr Mousavi to be present in Friday prayers. At the same time the security agents wanted to avoid his [Mousavi's] attendance, and he didn`t want the atmosphere to become tense. But he came and the popular reaction was very positive.

Q. Is it possible to arrest Mr Mousavi or his relatives?

A. No, I don`t think they can do such a thing. That would make the atmosphere tense and stressful again.

Q. If they want to arrest you, are you ready?

A. Yes, not only me also all the members of my family are ready.
Monday
Aug242009

The Latest from Iran (24 August): The 4-D Chess Match

NEW Israel Shock Announcement: Saudis Go Nuclear…All Tehran’s Fault
NEW Welcome to the Irony: Iran's Parliament Passes Bill to Defend Human Rights
The Latest from Iran (23 August): An Anti-Ahmadinejad Bloc?


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IRAN GREEN

2110 GMT: In addition to providing the first set of his evidence of detainee abuse to Parliament, Mehdi Karroubi has responded to criticism from a conservative MP, Ahmad Tavakoli, that the revelations were against Karroubi's revolutionary background and would have bad consequences. Karroubi said that it was not right to sacrifice "our religion, dignity and bravery for the benefit of ourselves" and that the regime's is to no one's benefits.

2100 GMT: Returning to the comments of former 1st Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai (see 1315 GMT), more to raise a smile than to offer any analysis. Rahim-Mashai said that the election had demonstrated President Ahmadinejad's historic and extraordinary popularity in the world, a popularity unique before and after the Islamic Revolution. He added that, had it not been for the “challenges” that the Ahmadinejad Administration created in the world, Iran would not be as successful as it is today. (Press TV has a summary in English.)

1945 GMT: The Los Angeles Times blog "Babylon & Beyond" has summarised the first testimony of detainee abuse produced by Mehdi Karroui (see 1535 and 1930 GMT):
Iranian officials interviewed an alleged victim of jailhouse rape at the hands of security personnel. But instead of consoling him, they asked him embarrassing questions and blamed him for the violence.

They said it was the young man's own fault for protesting the results of Iran's June 12 presidential elections, according to a fresh account of the alleged rape published on the website of a prominent reformist politician.

"I asked them why I and others were raped in prison," the young man says he asked two interrogators and a judge who had agreed to hear his story....

One of the three replied, "'When the supreme leader confirmed the election result, everyone should have recognized it."

1940 GMT: For What It's Worth. Press TV, citing Ayandeh newspaper, reports that the managing director of the Behehst-e-Zahra cemetery has denied the secret burial of post-election casualties. Norooz claimed earlier this week, from information provided by a cemetery employee, that security forces had forced staff to inter 40 bodies.

1930 GMT: Tabnak reports that Kazam Jalali of the Parliament National Security Committee has met with Mehdi Karroubi to discuss Karroubi's initial presentation of evidence on the sexual abuse of detainees (see 1535 GMT). The Los Angeles Times offers an English summary quoting Jalali, “Karoubi agreed to introduce four persons, who have met him personally and claimed that they were tortured and raped in prison, to Parliament. Karoubi told us these four persons are ready to provide their testimonies that they were sexually abused, but they do not feel secure.”

1600 GMT: Cyber-Wars. We will probably run a feature tomorrow, but it appears that the Iranian authorities are doing serious damage to the communications and presence of the Green opposition and reformists.

One key site of Mir Housein Mousavi's campaign, Ghalam News, was hacked out of existence last month ("Service Unavailable"). It is reported that another, Kalameh Sabz, has been down for more than 10 days. The closure of Etemade Melli newspaper has been followed by the disappearance of its website ("Under Construction"); Seda-ye Edalat fell at the end of July. (The website of the Etemade Melli political party is still up and a key source for information.)

1535 GMT: The Evidence Emerges. Mehdi Karroubi has released the first testimony from an abused detainee from Saham News via his party's website, Etemade Melli, and promised that this is only "a corner of the documentation".

1525 GMT: Press TV features the story that head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani has appointed the former Minister of Intelligence, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, as Iran's Prosecutor General, as well as naming Ayatollah Ahmad Mohseni-Gorgani as the head of the Supreme Court.

Nothing surprising there --- we reported Mohseni-Ejeie's appointment many days ago. What is significant is that Press TV is obviously repeating the news to give the President a poke in the eye. On no less than four occasions in a short article (three times in the text; once in the caption), the website stresses, "The appointment comes as earlier last month President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sacked his intelligence minister Mohseni-Ejei after he objected to the president's first deputy pick."

1450 GMT: Rumours have been flying for the last 36 hours that one of the defendants in tomorrow's fourth Tehran trial of post-election detainees will be prominent politician Saeed Hajjarian. That has now expanded to the claim that Hajarian and reformist political heavyweights , Mohsen Aminzadeh, Mostafa Tajzadeh, and Mohsen Mirdamadi will be making "confessions" on television on Tuesday night.

1400 GMT: Journalist Mahsa Amirabadi has been released after more than two months in detention. Her husband Masoud Bastani is still in Evin Prison.

1315 GMT: Slow politics day so far, but one story has been developing. The former First Vice President and current (but suspended for legal reasons) Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has given an extended interview to Islamic Republic News Agency, declaring that the Presidential election was a "referendum" on the Government.

Rahim-Mashai's lengthy version of how the election developed, however, is important for another reason. He asserts that Hashemi Rafsanjani tried to use events to curb the authority of the Supreme Leader. In the context of current events, this may be seen as a clear signal that the Ahmadinejad camp is trying to prevent any rapprochement between Ayatollah Khamenei and the former President, or as we frame it, an anti-Ahmadinejad compromise.

0915 GMT: A Green Media and Organisation. Seyed Mohammad Maraashi, writing on the website of the Mir Hossein Mousavi campaign, declares:
The continuation of this movement is tied to the creation of a cohesive organization with its own definite means of communication. The establishment of a closely knit organization depends primarily on setting up a newspaper or a television and radio network. That will allow the movement’s supporters to receive the news from trustworthy sources. This initiative will also prevent the irresponsible distribution of rumors....

But the creation of an official newspaper, radio or television network is only one of the considerable tasks of the movement. Another momentous task is the establishment of an organization. Every organization must focus on a particular objective, and this objective can be realized if we devise and preserve this organization’s structure through constant education and activity....

We should not forget that the current condition is the condition of a coup d’état, and we should be prepared to go to jail, or even to die, for our political activities.

0700 GMT: Watching Hashemi. Maryam at Keeping the Change offers a challenging evaluation of Rafsanjani's role and strategy, set in the context of his 30 years at the forefront of Iranian politics and his 17 July address at Friday prayers in Tehran:
In the first half of his speech, Rafsanjani emphasized the importance of unity to resolving the post-election crisis, a theme he discussed primarily through citations to the Quran....Rafsanjani's [Saturday] comments to the Expediency Council reinforce this view.... [It was] another...example of Rafsanjani's desire to strike a middle ground, though one which superficially favored the Establishment in the short term.

It's a persuasive argument as far as it goes, but it leaves an important question. Is it possible to find unity in the current crisis?

0545 GMT: Late last night, after a day trying to interpret where exactly Hashemi Rafsanjani stood in the post-election conflict between and amidst the President, the Supreme Leader, conservative and principlist groups, and the Green opposition, one reader wrote, "This really is the most incredible four-dimensional chess game."

In a new day in that game, the players are on a break. However, there is one move, from a high-ranking reformist member of Parliament: "The First Vice-Speaker of Iran's Parliament, Mohammad-Hassan Aboutorabi-Fard, told reporters on Sunday that it was 'likely' that the Parliament (Majlis) would reject about five of the introduced nominees."

Aboutourabi-Fard made the same statement last week, as did Mohammad-Reza Bahonar, the second Vice-Speaker. The question, of course, is whether other MPs share their scepticism.
Sunday
Aug232009

The Latest from Iran (23 August): Is Rafsanjani in An Anti-Ahmadinejad Bloc?

NEW The Mousavi Speech to University Professors (23-24 June)
NEW Assessing the Challenge to Ahmadinejad and Khamenei
NEW Government Says, “Overweight? Try Prison”
NEW Video: Protests from Prisons to Football Stadiums (21-22 August)

The Latest from Iran (22 August): A Pause for Ramadan?

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1940 GMT: A slow few hours but there is a story that is threatening to take off.

We reported on Friday, via Norooz that "on both 12 July and 15 July, the bodies of tens of protestors were brought in without any identification, secretly and under strict security [to Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery]. Staff were forced to issue compulsory burial licences, and the bodies were interred in Section 302."

A pro-Ahmadinejad member of Parliament has denied the allegation, so Norooz has published the burial permit numbers to encourage MPs who want to investigate the story.

1525 GMT: Twitter reports that blogger Somayeh Tohidlu has been released from detention after more than two months.

1510 GMT: Mr Smith Begs to Differ. Earlier this week, three of our EA correspondents, assisted by our readers, had an important debate on whether Hashemi Rafsanjani was still an important force in post-elections manoeuvres (Part 1 and Part 2). The events of the last 24 hours bear out the significance of that discussion.

One of the correspondents, Mr Smith, now intervenes on my assessment (1200 GMT), both of Rafsanjani's challenge to the system and on President Ahmadinejad's position:
The widespread belief that the Kargozaran party is representing Rafsanjani's political vision (0700 GMT and 1240 GMT) needs further scrutiny. While it is true that it has always been an association of technocrats closely linked to Rafsanjani, it has never been a mouthpiece for Rafsanjani himself, and It has been subject to multiple internal schisms and divisions. Most recently, Gholamhosein Karbaschi and another leader, Mohammad Ali Najafi, sided with Karroubi in the elections while the rest of the leadership went for Mousavi. This explains why the party has now backed Karroubi, but the labelling "Rafsanjani's party" is a bit too far-fetched.

As for my own reading of Rafsanjani's statement at the Expediency Council, while it is true that it represents once again the essence of what he said at Friday prayers on July 17, I feel that it is a bit thin on real criticism to Ahmadinejadm and the news agencies did not do bad in highlighting the remarks pertaining to Khamenei. Karroubi and Mousavi need a slight tilt of Rafsanjani in their favour now more than ever, and he really risks being confined to rhetorical and mild criticisms of Ahmadinejad if he remains unable to impress some sort of change in direction to the current overhaul of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard and other pro-Ahmadinjead parties on government.

On this regard,the head of the Foreign Affairs Committee of Majlis [Parliament], Alaeddin Borujerdi, has stated that his commission has no objection to Heydar Moslehi [Intelligence], Ahmad Vahidi [Defense] or Manouchehr Mottaki [Foreign Affairs], and is only perturbed by Mostafa Mohammad Najjar at Interior. Borujerdi revealingly let out that Moslehi has "adequate experience in the IRGC Intelligence Division".

Rooz Online has information on the new Intelligence Ministry actively blocking the release of bailed political prisoners in Evin, an ominous sign of things to come.

1445 GMT: Parleman News reports that President Ahmadinejad's Ministerial choices will come up for votes of confidence in Parliament next Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

1340 GMT: More on the Kargozaran Party statement, which may or may not reflect the views of Hashemi Rafsanjani (see 0700 GMT): Friday prayers has become a "tool for issuing threats".

1335 GMT: Assessment or Wish Fulfillment? Kayhan, the "conservative" newspaper, is claiming that, with his statement yesterday, Rafsanjani has taken himself out of the political arena, ruling out any opposition bloc with Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

1225 GMT: Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has ordered MPs to receive the evidence of Mehdi Karroubi on abuse of detainees.

1200 GMT: We Don't Want to Say We Told You So But....

Hashemi Rafsanjani's website has posted a summary of the former President's speech to the Expediency Council, and it bears out our interpretation that Rafsanjani has not backed away from a challenge to President Ahmadinejad. Here's the text, as translated by the Neo-Resistance blog:
In presence of the majority of the members, the head of the Expediency Council, again reiterated that the passage through current problems becomes possible by shift from sensationalism into rationalism and emphasized that the media and different tribunes should prove their loyalty to the Supreme Leader's vision of unity in practice.

....At the beginning of the meeting, Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani congratulated the start of the holy month of Ramadan, month of feasting with divinity, month of spiritual self reflection and social justice; and expressed hope that in the spiritual light of this divine month should lead to strengthening unity and conciliation. He pointed out the necessity of increased compassion and unity of the officials with the people, to enable passage of the country through its internal and foreign problems and stressed: "Acting with wisdom, principle and due diligence will make this into an attainable and practical objective."

Hashemi Rafsanjani stated that it was essential to respect the Leader's orders and guidance, creating appropriate situations to abide by the constitution beyond group interests, opposing deviation from the law and confronting the law-breakers from either side, replacing the emotional atmosphere with a rational one, and creating an environment for free criticism, reasoning and providing legal and reasonable responses to fair criticism in the current situation. He added, "If these conditions are met, then the impact of the foreign media which is often tainted by colonial intentions will diminish and attention to local news sources will increase and the confrontations on the surface of the society and between different factions will move to media and internal news sources."

In conclusion, the head of the Expediency Council emphasized that the guidelines of the Supreme Leader with respect to recent arrests, compensation for those whose rights have been violated, and punishment of the outlaws open a way through current problems and said: "All, in any position, must abide by these [principles] and those with tribunes, influence, and media have to avoid divisionism, labelling, and controversy and help unity and reconciliation of the society.

Rafsanjani expressed hope that the independent and elite members of the Expediency Council will be the first to walk in this path.

0700 GMT: With the day starting quietly, we have space to pick up on the significant development from yesterday. Contrary to some initial nervous reactions, the politician under pressure is not former President Hashemi Rafsanjani but (as has been the case for weeks) current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Understandably, given there were limited political activity on the first day of Ramadan, Rafsanjani's statement as he chaired the Expediency Council received immediate and intense attention. The problem is that the immediate and intense reaction, even from skilled analysts at places like the National Iranian American Council, was knee-jerk and misguided, picking up only on Rafsanjani's call for all to unite behind the Supreme Leader.

The former President has never called, before or after the election, for defiance of Ayatollah Khamenei or an overturn of velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority), and it would be political folly for him to do so now. So of course he is not joining the calls of some senior clerics to consider the invocation of Law 111 against the Supreme Leader's fitness to rule. Indeed, no leading opposition politician --- Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami --- is joining that call.

The political challenge instead is to President Ahmadinejad and the institutions that he and his allies are trying to control. The rest of Rafsanjani's statement buttressed that challenge, albeit in general terms, with its call for justice, adherence by officials to the Constitution, and guidelines for proper conduct in cases such as detentions. As we noted yesterday, that is not far off Mehdi Karroubi's position; the difference is that Karroubi has been high-profile with his specific call, embodied in his 29 July letter to Rafsanjani, for investigation of the abuses of detainees.

Then the Karzogaran Party, which some have identified as "Rafsanjani's party":
Karroubi’s bravery, courage, and his compassionate approach in rooting out the current corruption in the country’s security and judicial apparatuses, is not only worthy of attention and congratulations, but has brought about an invasion of repeated attacks by various people and groups in the name of ‘defending the system’. These behaviors serve as evidence of the ridiculousness of trying to combat reality.

The National Iranian American Council revised its position: Rafsanjani was no longer giving way to the Supreme Leader but was maintaining his challenge to the regime.

Rafsanjani's next substantive step remains to be seen. It is one thing to make a general statement; another to lead or support direct action to undermine or force changes in Government institutions. (That is the real significance of Karroubi's attempt, with his letter, to get Rafsanjani on-side with the inquiry into detainee abuse, with Rafsanjani's initial inaction, and with his subsequent step of sending the letter to both the head of judiciary and the Speaker of Parliament.)

There is more to this story, however, than Rafsanjani. The other signals continue to show an alignment of forces --- "conservative", "principlist", and "reformist" --- pressing against the President. In that context, the shift of the "conservative" newspaper Jomhoori Eslami, is notable, as it stated, "The abuse of detainees is undeniable," and ridiculing the Government's pretext of a foreign-inspired velvet revolution as a "fairy tale".

Coincidentally, Maryam from the excellent Keeping the Change sent us her analysis, which we've posted in a separate entry.