The Latest from Israel-Gaza-Palestine (5 February)

Latest Post: Welcome to the Israel-Palestine Future, Courtesy of the Likud Party

9:30 p.m. Israeli newspapers reporting that Israeli troops killed a Gazan with a grenade on the border.

8:45 p.m. According to Reuters, the discussions on an Israel-Gaza settlement are foundering on the specifics of control and reopening of crossings. Hamas says Israel is offering re-opening of 75 percent of crossings and full re-opening after the freeing of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, kidnapped in 2006. The offer is vague, however: Israel has not defined the "capacity" of crossings, making the 75 percent hard to measure, it has not specified which goods will be allowed into Gaza, and it has insisted on the right to re-close the crossings for security reasons.

Hamas, for its part, is insisting on the right to vet Palestinian Authority security members put on the crossings and requiring that they come from Gaza.

7:35 p.m. Egypt is definitely striking back at Hamas after the failure, in its view, to put suitable proposals to Israel. Hours after the suspensions of talks on Thursday, members of the Hamas delegation were stopped at the Rafah crossing with between $7 million and $9 million and 2 millions euros ($2.5 million) in cash in their suitcases. The money was confiscated as the delegates continued into Gaza.

Hamas is paying its employees in cash while Israel tries to restrict any movement of currency into Gaza.



7:20 p.m. Keeping Abbas on a String. Israel has agreed to allow $43 million of Palestinian Authority funds, or "tax money collectedl..on behalf of the Palestinian Authority" into Gaza to pay PA employees. The amount, however, is less than that requested by PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, and Israel has offered no response to Fayyad's declaration yesterday of a $600 million reconstruction programme for Gaza.

4:05 p.m. Dumbest Headline of the Day. Reuters reports on this morning's Israeli seizure of a Lebanese ship carrying aid to Gaza (see 11 a.m.): "Israel Seizes Gaza Freighter; No Arms Aboard".

Which, given that this was clearly a ship loaded with medicine, food, and blankets, is kinda missing the point. How about "Israel Seizes Gaza Freighter to Maintain Blockade; Roughs Up Crew"?

3:50 p.m. Ali Yenidunya offers the following analysis of yesterday's Abu Dhabi meeting of foreign ministers from nine Arab countries:

There are two important results from this meeting: Support for Fatah and warning to non-Arab countries in order not to intervene to Arab and Palestinian affairs. After Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s hospitability on Tuesday to the exiled leader of Hamas, Khaled Meshaal, this declaration is aimed at cutting the Shi'a penetration in Palestine by giving support to Fatah.

Although the target of this statement is commonly understood as Ahmadinajed by every media organization, this has gone unnoticed by the Turkish public. Some Turkish media have started asked if this declaration is aimed at Turkey’s increasing influence in the Middle East after Prime Minister Erdogan’s walkout in Davos. In response, ‘Arab betrayal’ discourses are being triggered in Turkey, referring to Arab proclamation of independence during the time of the Ottoman Empire.

11:50 a.m. Take That! Egypt, extracting some retribution for the failure to get a suitable proposal from Hamas for transmission to Israel (or for a suitable Hamas reaction to an Israeli proposal), has shut the border with Gaza to anyone and everyone: "The border is closed as of this morning. No humanitarian, media or medical delegations will be allowed through, nor will medical aid deliveries be permitted."

11 a.m. Details are emerging of the Israeli interception of the Lebanese ship with aid for Gaza, and it's not as straightforward as we reported at 5:50 a.m. An Al Jazeera correspondent on the ship reports five Israeli troops boarded the vessel:

They are pointing guns against us - they are kicking us and beating us. They are threatening our lives.

The owner of the ship says the Israelis destroyed all communications equipment and confiscated phones.

8:45 a.m. Egypt, in its version of the negotiations for an Israel-Gaza settlement, says it will be Saturday before Hamas makes its response to Israeli proposals. Hamas said yesterday that Israel had given an insufficient response to its proposals.

It's close to irrelevant who offered the proposals --- nothing will happen before the Israeli elections next Tuesday and while Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas is making his own maneouvres to represent the Palestinian position. The game right now is simply to claim the diplomatic high ground when and if meaningful negotiations do begin.

Morning Update (5:50 a.m. GMT; 7:50 a.m. Israel/Palestine): Israeli forces have stopped a ship, The Lebanese Fraternity, with 50 tons of aid. The ship was intercepted 20 miles off the coast of Gaza.

Indeed, the one area where international co-operation is succeeding on Gaza is control of arms shipments by sea. The US, Canada,and seven European nations met in Denmark on Wednesday to discuss the issue.

Today's Obamameter: The Latest on US Foreign Policy (4 February)

Latest Post: US-Russia Relations - A Grand Obama Bargain on Nuclear Warheads?
Latest Post: Secret US-Iran Talks This Week?
Latest Post: US Military to Obama on Afghanistan: Make a Decision Now

Current Obamameter Reading: Distant Clouds, Local Storms

10:30 p.m. The British Council has suspended all operations in Iran after visas were denied to British staff and local employees were summoned to President Ahmadinejad's office and ordered to resign from their posts.

8 p.m. Red Alert of the Day. Isaac Ben Israel, a Member of the Knesset, has declared that Israel has a year in which to attack Iran before Tehran has a nuclear bomb: Ben Israel, a former general and senior defence official, said, "Last resort means when you reach the stage when everything else failed. When is this? Maybe a year, give or take."

Meanwhile, Prime Ministerial candidate Benjamin Netanyahu told a conference that Iran poses "the gravest challenge Israel has faced since the War of Independence in 1948. We will work on all levels to neutralise this danger." (cross-posted from Israel-Gaza-Palestine thread)

3:25 p.m. We've posted a separate entry on the reports of an Obama proposal to reduce US and Russian warheads by 80 percent.

2:50 p.m. Carrots and Sticks. Only a day after Moscow's provision of incentives helped persuade Kyrgyzstan to end the lease on the US airbase in that country, the Russian Foreign Ministry has stated:

We positively reacted to the request of the United States for the transit through Russia of goods and materials to Afghanistan. We will be flexible in many other ways which will support our joint success in Afghanistan -- that would be the basic school of thinking from which we will proceed.

2:40 p.m. Karzai Strikes Back. The Afghan President, amidst stories that the US military is prepared to "ditch" him as part of the US surge, has fought back with criticism of American military operations:

Our demands are clear and they are that house searches of Afghans, arrests of Afghans and civilian casualties must cease. And they (U.S. and NATO countries) are naturally putting on pressure to make us silent and retract from this claim. This is not possible.

Karzai's comments follow a meeting with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, who expressed his concern at the civilian death toll. The UN said on Tuesday that 2100 civilians had been killed in 2008, a 40 percent rise from the previous case, and added that 700 had died at the hands of Afghan and foreign forces. Last week NATO claimed only 90 civilians had been killed by Afghan/foreign military action.



2:25 p.m. Potentially significant news from Iran. Former President Mohammad Khatami, according to family and friends, will stand as a candidate in this spring's Presidential election.

12:45 p.m. Pakistani Taliban have released 29 policemen that they captured (see 9:10 a.m.) in fighting in the Swat Valley.

12:25 p.m. The battle over the US airbase in Kyrgyzstan (see 6 a.m.) is heating up. The American Embassy is insisting that it has received no formal notification that the Kyrgyz Government wishes to close the base, and talks are continuing on its future. The Kyrgyz Government has sent Parliament a decree on closure, however, and Parliamentary debate could begin on Thursday.

The base hosts approximately 1,000 military personnel from the US, Spain, and France and 650 U.S. and Kyrgyz contractors.

12:15 p.m. Iraqi authorities are investigating allegations, raised by tribal parties the day after the provincial elections, of serious voter fraud in Anbar province.

9:10 a.m. Pakistani Taliban claim to have captured 30 policemen in fighting in the Swat Valley. Insurgents have fired on NATO trucks, destroying nine vehicles.

8:30 a.m. The US has finally responded to North Korea's verbal provocations, which have declared the scrapping of all agreements with South Korea, the warning that the two countries are "on the brink of war", and Tuesday's announcement of Pyongyang's intention to test-fire a long-range missile.

The American military commander in South Korea, General Walter Sharp, warned to "stop the provocations that have been going on, whether it is declaring all the agreements to be no longer valid or missile technology that they continue to develop."

7:15 a.m. Iraq Developments. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, bolstered by apparent victories in provincial elections, has re-entered the battle over President Obama's plan to withdraw all US combat forces within 16 months. Al-Maliki has effectively weighed in on Obama's side,  and indeed given a subtle warning to the President that he should stick to his schedule despite the US military's opposition:

The new US Administration has sent messages on its plans to withdraw the US forces ahead of the agreed upon schedule which is something we consider to be good, and we are ready for any political or military commitment Iraq faces in the coming stage, stressing that the agreement on the pullout of the US forces has opened the door wide open to regaining Iraq's full sovereignty.

Meanwhile, The New York Times has a lengthy profile of another apparent election winner, former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, which it considers a sign that those favouring a strong central Iraqi Government have triumphed prevailed in this week's vote.

7:05 a.m. Ethiopian forces, who had only withdrawn from Somalia last month, have reportedly returned to a border town. The regional leader of the Islamic Courts Union has threatened force if the troops do not leave.

6:50 a.m. An important economic signal from Obama. In discussions with British businessman and bankers, we've thought the possibility that the President will move to "protectionism" was exaggerated.

Yesterday Obama indicated on US television that he would set aside a "Buy American" provision, which requires that all iron and steel for infrastructure in his economic stimulus package must be made in the US: ""That is a potential source of trade wars that we can't afford at a time when trade is sinking all across the globe."

That message is likely to be reinforced by the President's visit on 19 February to Canada, which is understandably very worried about any US trade restrictions.

6:10 a.m. For the sake of the record, Al Qa'eda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has released another audio statement, focusing on Gaza. It's a ritual denuncation of "western collaboration" with Israel.

As readers know, we are more concerned with local situations than we are with Al Qa'eda, which we believe is increasingly peripheral to political and military conflict and even terrorism. It is interesting that al-Zawahiri apparently did not refer directly to the situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan, preferring to use a more distant issue for support.

Morning Update (6 a.m. GMT; 1 a.m. Washington): US news will be dominated today by the political embarrassment of the forced withdrawal of Tom Daschle, former Democratic leader in the Senate, as President Obama's nominee as Secretary of Health and Human Services and by the battle over Obama's economic stimulus plan.

Beyond that, however, there are mixed signs on the Central Asian horizon. Kyrgyzstan, and behind it Russia, have posed a challenge for the US with the demand for the closure of the American airbase, which is important for the US effort in Afghanistan.

Speaking of which, the Joint Chiefs of Staff are making another move to get the President to adopt their ideas for the Afghan fight --- we've posted separately on that battle. And more later on a continuing Enduring America exclusive, the possibility of secret US talks with Iran. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke on both Afghanistan and Iran, as well as Israel-Palestine, with British and German Foreign Ministers on Tuesday.

Israel-Palestine: The Failed Olmert Offer for a Settlement

The Los Angeles Times, reporting on the Israeli election campaign, buries a significant revelation from the Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot. It is nothing less than an initiative by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, launched last autumn, to get an agreement with the Palestinian Authority:

Under the proposal, Israel would relinquish any claim to the Gaza Strip, all but a small part of the West Bank and Jerusalem's Arab neighborhoods, a hand-over that would uproot more than 60,000 Jewish settlers from the West Bank.

The Jewish part of Jerusalem and large suburban-style West Bank settlements near the city would remain in Israel's hands. In return for annexed West Bank land, the Palestinians would get a strip of the Negev desert adjacent to Gaza and a tunnel or overpass connecting Gaza and the West Bank. The shortest route linking the territories would run about 30 miles across southern Israel.

An international body representing Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority, Israel and the U.S. would administer religious sites in Jerusalem's Old City and holy basin to ensure access for Christian, Muslim and Jewish worshipers. Israel would retain formal sovereignty over those sites.

Palestinians who fled or were forced from Israel around the time of the Jewish state's founding in 1948 would forfeit their right to return, although Olmert offered to accept a limited number -- up to 50,000, according to Israel's Channel 10 television -- under a family reunification program.

The Palestinian Authority was sceptical of the proposal, as it was only verbal and left too many details unsettled. Chief negotiator Saeb Erekat says, "[PA President Mahmoud] Abbas told Olmert that we will not be part of an interim agreement. Either we agree on all issues, or no agreement at all."

Israel-Gaza: How to Cover a Mass Killing with "Balance"

Morning Update (7:30 a.m. GMT; 2:30 a.m. Israel/Palestine): The New York Times has a lengthy article on the mass killing in El Atatra, in which 16 civilians allegedly died amidst fighting that killed four soldiers.

The article is a careful study in how to maintain balance in an unbalanced situation:

The war in El Atatra tells the story of Israel’s three-week offensive in Gaza, with each side giving a very different version. Palestinians here describe Israeli military actions as a massacre, and Israelis attribute civilian casualties to a Hamas policy of hiding behind its people. In El Atatra, neither version appears entirely true, based on 50 interviews with villagers and four Israeli commanders.

So what is the middle ground between these versions?

The dozen or so civilian deaths seem like the painful but inevitable outcome of a modern army bringing war to an urban space. And while Hamas fighters had placed explosives in a kitchen, on doorways and in a mosque, they did not seem to be forcing civilians to act as shields.

All right, so Hamas is cleared of the most serious charge of hiding behind civilians, while Israel gets a reduced civilian death toll and the let-off that "S*** Happens" in modern warfare. But hold on, go back to the top of the article:

The phosphorus smoke bomb punched through the roof in exactly the spot where much of the family had taken refuge — the upstairs hall away from the windows. The bomb, which international weapons experts identified as phosphorus by its fragments, was intended to mask troop movements outside. Instead it breathed its storm of fire and smoke into Sabah Abu Halima’s hallway, releasing flaming chemicals that clung to her husband, baby girl and three other small children, burning them to death.

That would be not just phosphorous then but "white phosphorous", the use of which in built-up areas with civilians is illegal under international law. Reporters Ethan Bronner and Sabrina Tavernise, for all the admirable detail in their article, never directly mention this. Instead, they pass the buck:

The question of how Israel handled civilians in this war has become a matter of keen controversy. Human rights groups are crisscrossing Gaza, documenting what they believe will form the basis for war crimes proceedings aimed at demonstrating that Israel used disproportionate force.

Israeli officers said they took special care not to harm civilians.

Balance? Journalistic objectivity, yes. Offering evidence but then hiding its significance, no.

Elsewhere Bronner and Tavernise depict graphically the shooting of unarmed civilians trying to surrender and the dead lying uncollected for 11 days as dogs ate their remains. And, in their understated way, they offer a chilling forecast of the consequences from the El Atatra mass killing, which will not occur in an international court but in further conflict:

Matar’s mother, Nabila Abu Halima, said she had been shot through the arm when she tried to move toward her son. Her left arm bears a round scar. Her son came back to her in pieces, his body crushed under tank treads....

“We used to tell fighters not to fire from here,” said Nabila Abu Halima, looking over a field through her open window. “Now I’ll invite them to do it from my house.”

The Latest from Israel-Gaza-Palestine (3 February)

6 p.m. Line up for the Inter-Arab Showdown. Nine foreign ministers from Arab states, meeting in Abu Dhabi, have put their support behind Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas. No support given that all nine --- Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, Yemen and the Palestinian Authority --- have been on the anti-Hamas side of the fence during the Gaza conflict.

The question now is how Turkey, Syria, Iran and others who gave support to Hamas during the Israeli invasion react.

4 p.m. Repeating a pattern from Sunday, Israel has responded to the rocket fired from Gaza this morning with attacks on the tunnels around Rafah.

3 p.m. Nothing stunning in first reports on US envoy George Mitchell's press conference after his return from the Middle East: he plans to have a "regular and sustained presence in the region" and will return this month. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says she will work with Israelis and Palestinians for a "viable Palestinian state" but added the ritual three conditions, adopted by the US-EU-Russia-UN Quartet, for Hamas participation: "Hamas knows the conditions ... They must renounce violence, they must recognize Israel, they must agree to abide by prior agreements."



1 p.m. Hamas officials continue to hold out the prospect of a cease-fire proposal being put to Israel by Thursday. Gaza Deputy Foreign Minister Ahmed Youssef said last night that, while he had not heard from the Hamas delegation in Cairo, "We are heading toward a right direction, toward a cease-fire."

12:30 p.m. With little happening on the diplomatic front, the most significant development is in Abu Dhabi, where foreign ministers from nine Arab countries are meeting. No news, however, on any outcomes regarding Palestine.

Morning Update (7 a.m. GMT; 9 a.m. Israel/Palestine): Because of the effective division of the diplomatic process yesterday, with part of it going on in Cairo and part moved to Paris, we're in a curious next-to-silence this morning. No news on either discussion has made it into the press, which has contributed to amnesia by failing to recognise the significance of Mahmoud Abbas' diversion from Egypt to France (and his continued European walk-about this week).

Israel will now be occupied with the elections scheduled for 10 February. Hamas will be content to shore up its diplomatic position in the region and its support in Gaza. And (barring our scenario that the Paris talks were considering an "intermediary" to set up a channel between the US Government and Hamas) others in Washington, Europe, and the West Bank are scrambling for a new policy to limit the Hamas threat.

A Grad rocket fired from Gaza landed near Ashkelon in Israel this morning. It was the longest-range rocket launched since the ceasefire on 18 January.