Iran: The Events of 22 Bahman, Seen from Inside Tehran

EA correspondent Mr Azadi, who was in close contact with sources in Tehran throughout Thursday, writes this summary:

At 10 p.m., Iranian television began its news with part of the Supreme Leader's declaration, "Iran will be safe to the day that we follow Velayat-e-Faqih (ultimate clerical authority)."

This was followed by the images from the Azadi Square rally, as the narrator said that the day was mainly to show "our" support for the Supreme Leader and the defeat of foreign enemies and those who would deceive "us".

It was a symbolic end to 22 Bahman, with all the noise coming from the regime: many Green Movement supporters believed that, even though they were "countless", they still were not able to show their presence.

What Happened:



From the early hours, plainclothes security forces and the Basij militia were stationed around various streets, putting them . under the control and surveillance of undercover and uniformed security forces. All entry and exit routes around Tehran, as well as bus terminals, were controlled as well. Government buses had transferred Basij forces and plainclothes officers from different parts of town to the demonstration routes.

From Imam Hussain Square to Ferdowsi Square, there were fewer forces. But from Ferdowsi Square onwards, anti-riot force bikes and trucks loaded with batons and tear gas were on standby: on Keshavarz Blvd, from Aria Hospital to Palestine Avenue, and especially around Tehran University.

The security forces were preventing the people from reaching Enghelab and 7 Tir Squares, as a large group moved along the streets leading to Enghelab Square. From Enghelab to Azadi Square the number of anti-riot police forces was low; instead, there was an increase in the plainclothes forces, who could be identified easily from their walky-talkies.

As there was high probability for students protesting at (state broadcasting) IRIB, a large number of military and Basij surrounded the broadcasting complex, on Jam-e-Jam Street, around Karegar and North Amirabad streets.

Tehran’s Sadeghieh Square was one of the focal points of protesters. Mehdi Karoubi had announced the place as the starting point of the demonstration, and  thousands of supporters of green movement had gathered here. Large crowds of green-clad protesters moved from Apadana, the home of Sohrab Arabi (a martyred protester) towards Azadi sq. and Mohammad Ali Jenah Street. A large crowd of people were moving from Sadeghieh Sq. towards Azadi Square; even under tight security in the area, the slogans of “Down with the Dictator" could be heard.

In Asharafi Esfehani Street, people were shouting slogans such as "Death to Dictator and were tearing photographs of Khameini. The sound of car could be heard, which led to severe clashes between people and government forces. Tear gas was thrown and gunshots were heard. The first cases of arrest were reported from Azadi and Sadeghieh Squares.

Around 10:30 a.m. Mehdi Karroubi was attacked in Asharafi Esfehani Stree by plain-clothes officers. His bodyguards and others around him were beaten by batons and hit by "paint" bullets, while his car windows were broken. Karroubi left in another person’s car but the windows of this car were shattered as well. Two of Karroubi’s close friends, who also act as his bodyguards, were arrested by intelligence services and were sent to Evin Prison. (The two, Askarian and Anbar Nejad, each lost a limb defending their country during the Iran-Iraq War.)

Around 11 a.m. Mohammad Khatami joined the protesting crowds at the intersection of Zanjan St. and Azadi St., but was immediately forced to leave as a result of an attack on his car by plain-clothes officers. About 12 o’clock Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard joined the rally but again they were harshly attacked by plainclothes forces, and they were forced to leave the rally immediately.


In Azadi Square, the people on the East side were shouting “Death to Dictator!” and chanting: “Courageous Iranians: Support! Support!”; however, loudspeakers in the area were extremely loud and appear to have been arranged to overpower anti-government slogans. Government helicopters were spotted in the sky, flying just above the crowd of people. Rumours went around that the helicopters were taking videos of the crowd.

During Ahmadinejad’s speech, at some points, people could be heard shouting, "Liar, liar’, possibly causing him to lose his concentration on a couple of occasions. After the speech, because of security concerns, he left by helicopter.

The official pro-government march of 22 Bahman was finished, yet sporadic clashes continued in different areas of the city. More anti-riot police forces were called in to suppress the protesters, and eyewitnesses reported armed anti-riot police on motorcycles heading toward central Tehran. A large number of military forces were reported to be stationed around the Supreme Leader’s residence, the IRIB building, and North Amirabad Street. Until 11:30 p.m. local time, the sounds of siren and slogans could be heard in Shahrak Gharb and Vanak Square near Tehran University.

Those involved in the day assess that Green Movement was not able to show itself as well as it wished, even though there were many people on the streets:

1. The city was like a military base, and the control of the police was extensive.

2. Opposition leaders were stopped m participating in the rally, to prevent the formation of a Green Wave

3. People carrying Green symbols were arrested quickly.

4. The Green Movement made a mistake with the instruction to hide Green symbols until Azadi Square. This caused confusion amongst Green protesters, as it was hard to identify who was with and against them.

5. It seemed that people were waiting for others to make the first move and then follow them.

In conclusion, all involved declared that, while the Government used the day for their propaganda, 22 Bahman was still an important experience for the Green Movement to continue on its path.

Iran: A Beginner's Guide to The Post-Election Conflict

Enduring America has been working with the University of Birmingham to provide a Briefing Note for those who are beginning to notice the developments in Iran. I thought that, for some new readers, this might be of use on a most important day:

Thursday in Iran is 22 Bahman, the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The day is also likely to see the biggest demonstrations, both for and against the Government, since June’s disputed Presidential election. The size of the protests are a matter for expectation: hundreds of thousands will be on the streets in Tehran and in cites across Iran, but one estimate, based on a Government source, is that three million people will be marching in Tehran alone.

The core immediate issue is the “legitimacy” of the Government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. “Green Movement” protests last summer focused on the election, amidst claims of fraud and ballot-rigging that denied a runoff to challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi.



However, as Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, insisted on inaugurating Ahmadinejad and as Government tried to crack down on dissent, the issue of legitimacy spread far wider. Demonstrations, including not only Mousavi but former President Mohammad Khatami, Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi, senior clerics, and reformist politicians, demanded action over detentions, trials, and abuse of prisoners and sought guarantees for justice, freedom of speech, and political activity.

In short, by last autumn, the protest had evolved from a challenge to an election into a civil rights movement, made up of many different groups. The “Green Movement” no longer claimed to be led by a Mousavi but to be a grassroots organisation seeking change from “the bottom up”.

Despite the regime’s attempts to suppress protest through arrests, prison sentences, and even executions, as well as through disruption of communications, the waves of demonstrations have continued, marked by the “hijacking” of Iran’s holidays and celebrations. Key moments have included the “40th Day” memorial for post-election victims including Neda Agha Soltan (30 July), the Qods Day rallies (18 Sept.), the marches of 13 Aban (4 November), and the protests on Students Day (7 December). Most significantly, on one of Iran’s holiest days, Ashura (27 December), demonstrators not only came out in number but pushed back security forces.

The opposition to President Ahmadinejad is no longer confined to an “opposition”. Key politicians such as former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, who should be considered politically a “free agent” moving between factions, and even “conservative” members of Iran’s establishment, such as Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, are now criticising the President and perhaps plotting for his removal. It is likely that the pressure from many sides will force the Supreme Leader to curb Ahmadinejad’s authority and may even lead to the President’s removal from office.

Will that be enough, however, to restore “legitimacy”? That is an important, unanswered question. Had the Supreme Leader and key groups in the Iranian system recognised the complaints and rights of protesters last summer, then the challenge might have been one of “reform” within the Islamic Republic. However, in a paradox, the attempt to quell dissent may have not only bolstered it but widened its demands: factions of the Green movement are now seeking the modification or even abandonment of velayat-e-faqih, the system of ultimate clerical supremacy.

So 22 Bahman is unlikely to be the end of this post-election drama. Instead, it will be a significant act in the middle of the play: if the opposition can mobilise a mass presence, then it will be confirmed as a long-term force for change in Iran. If, however, the protest can be minimised and dispersed, then --- for now --- the Ahmadinejad Government and military forces such as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard may be able to hang onto a semblance of authority.

The Latest from Iran (10 February): Mousavi, Pink Floyd, & 22 Bahman

2325 GMT: That's it for today. We'll be back at 0600 GMT. Look forward to seeing you then.

2315 GMT: What's Your Punchline? Looking for a joke to end the evening. Here's the set-up line, courtesy of Press TV: "A senior Iranian commander has announced that the country has developed a new system to distract missiles."

2310 GMT: On the Labour Front. Mansour Osanloo, the leader of the Tehran bus drivers union, has been transferred to Solitary Ward Number 1 in Gohardasht Prison, also known as the “doghouse”.

NEW Iran Analysis: On the Eve of 22 Bahman
UPDATED Iran Analysis: The Rafsanjani “Ultimatum” to the Supreme Leader
Iran Feature: Human Rights Round-up (1-7 February 2010)
The Latest from Iran (9 February): 48 Hours to Go

2225 GMT: Taking Away Karroubi's Protection? In an interview with Radio Farda, Mohammad Taghi Karroubi, Mehdi Karroubi’s son, says that several former Revolutionary Guards, wartime commanders, and family members of martyrs who had volunteered for protect Mehdi Karroubi on 22 Bahman have been called in for questioning and have not yet gone home. He says that they have probably been arrested.

2214 GMT: State Media Off-Line. On the eve of 22 Bahman, cyber-warriors have taken down the website of the Islamic Republic News Agency.

2200 GMT: Lots of Internet fuss tonight that Iran's telecommunications agency has declared it will shut down Google Mail as Iran prepares to roll out a national e-mail service. For some reason, I can't get hold of this as a major development rather than as possible bluster for 22 Bahman --- is the suspension technically possible? And how many Iranians would it affect?

2150 GMT: More interesting eve of 22 Bahman articles: Jason Shams, an Iranian-American who was involved with the Green Movement in Tehran up to November 2009, offers an insider's view of the protests in The Daily Beast.

And Edward Yeranian has a useful preview for the Voice of America --- Enduring America pops up to contribute to the analysis.

2145 GMT: Back from a break to post the latest on the Rafsanjani-Supreme Leader story: the former President's website has an interview in which Rafsanjani makes cursory references around Ayatollah Khamenei and a more pointed reference to the "15 Khordaad" uprising of June 1963. A subtle signal of support for tomorrow's protest?

1925 GMT: Mr Modesty. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki is a master of understatement:

"After 1400 years the Islamic Revolution in Iran… by offering a new method of social governance shone in front of secularism and liberalism that are the cause of all social problems and showed man the path to salvation.”

1915 GMT: The Cutting Edge. Prominent Twitter activist oxfordgirl is profiled in The Guardian of London today.

1900 GMT: Trial and Punishment. An Iranian activist updates that, after eight months in prison, the head of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, Mohsen Mirdamadi, finally went on trial. He denied all charges.

The activist also notes that prominent human rights attorney Mohamad Oliyayifard has been sentenced to one year in prison.

1750 GMT: The US Treasury has extended sanctions against the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, freezing the foreign assets of a commander, General Rostam Qasemi, was blacklisted, and four firms --- Fater Engineering, Imensazen Consultant Engineers, Makin and Rahab Institutes --- linked to the Revolutionary Guards' construction company.

1635 GMT: So Much for "Foreign Coverage". A few weeks Iranian state media loudly proclaimed that more than 100 foreign news organisations had been licensed to cover 22 Bahman. Well, here is what they get to cover:

An official coordinating the media [said] that reporters and photographers were allowed to cover only the speech of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at the historic Azadi (Freedom) Square in southwestern Tehran, and not the traditional street marches across the city.

1625 GMT: Twitter Activism. An Iranian activist sends word of a special initiative for 22 Bahman:

"We are doubling the fun on Twitter in co-operation with the Venezuelan resistance. We are planning to tweet up a storm with supporters of Iran and Venezuela both tweeting in mutual support, using a combined hashtag: #IranVzla - in addition to any other tags we might use. The tweet campaign will be starting from 12:00 noon Venezuela/20:00 Iran (1630 GMT)."

1613 GMT: The Purge of the Journalists. Reporters Sans Frontières claims 400 journalists have left the country since June 2009 and 2000 journalists are jobless.

1610 GMT: The parents of blogger Agh Bahman have been arrested. Last week Bahman's sisters were detained.

1530 GMT: Campaigners for Human Rights and Democracy in Iran claim that prisoners in Gohardasht Prison rioted this morning, taking control of a cellblock, stripping naked the warden and forcing him to flee.

1520 GMT: Rumour of Day. The Paris-based Intelligence Online claims:

Officially, the Iranian Vice President Esfandiar Rahim Mashai [Note: Rahim Mashai is a former Vice President and current Chief of Staff to the President] was in Geneva February 1 to attract investors to the Kish Island Persian Gulf Sea Project. But according to our information, Mashai also took part in secret meetings with American officials, just days before Iran announced its intention to enrich uranium by 20% instead of the current 3.5%. Mashai's presence in Geneva coincided with the presence at the United Nations' headquarters in the city of the large delegation of American nuclear specialists who had come to finalize the new Start treaty with the Russians.

1440 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has written an open letter to the Council supervising Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, critiquing the coverage of the state media.

1435 GMT: The Tajik Flop. Looks like the regime's attempts to use former Vice President Mohammad Reza Tajik for propaganda points (see 1130 GMT), releasing him temporarily to broadcast about "foreign intervention" and heartfelt support of the Supreme Leader, has backfired. Khabar Online goes out of its way to deny that Tajik's statement was recorded or that he was drugged before going on air.

1425 GMT: Pre-22 Bahman Reading. The Newest Deal has an excellent overview on the eve of the big day, and Persian Umpire gives a perspective from Tehran:

I don’t remember being as freaked out as I am now before any other demonstration. Caffeine and Nicotine are my best friends these days. Part of the reason is the unpredictability of 22 Bahman, in terms of turnout on both sides, the regime’s reaction, and the outcome. I have a small window for talking about this past week as internet connections are fading away, so I’ll skimp on details, but here’s how things are, a sort of “word on the street is”, from my usual sources (butchers, intellectuals, businessmen, grocers, cab drivers, artists, old, young).

1350 GMT: Mothers of Mourning Arrested. An Iranian activist, claiming the Mothers of Mourning as the source, gives the names of 19 members of the group who were detained on Monday.

1345 GMT: Confirmation. Parleman News is now carrying the story of Mohsen Aminzadeh's release.

1225 GMT: Aminzadeh Released. EA sources report that Mohsen Aminzadeh, Deputy Foreign Minister in the Khatami Government, has just been freed from Evin Prison, possibly on a short-term release.

1210 GMT: New Information on Rafsanjani-Khamenei Meeting. We will have a full update this afternoon, but an EA correspondent reports that the Rafsanjani "ultimatum" meeting with the Supreme Leader took place on Monday. Rafsanjani did raise the specific case of Alireza Beheshti; however, he also argued that Khamenei should intervene to free all political prisoners.

The correspondent also emphasises that the Rafsanjani meeting should be seen in the context of the earlier encounter between Khamenei and Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili, in which Mousavi-Ardebili declared his disappointment with the Supreme Leader's post-election leadership.

1155 GMT: Mousavi at Rally? A reliable EA source says that, at this point, Mir Hossein Mousavi is intending to participate in tomorrow's march, although the location is being protected for security reasons. These plans, however, may change.

1140 GMT: Peyke Iran reports that former political prisoners have been banned from demonstrating on 22 Bahman.

1130 GMT: The Tajik Mystery. Islamic Republic News Agency is now featuring last night's televised statement by former Vice President Mohammad Reza Tajik.

As we reported last night, Tajik was taken directly from Evin Prison to IRIB television for a 10:30 p.m. broadcast. In his statement, he declared that the protests were fostered by foreign groups from the US and Israel who tried to destroy the "unity" of Iran. He also put great emphasis on the authority of the Supreme Leader and the system of velayat-e-faqih.

That is quite a conversion for someone who was one of the senior advisors to Mir Hossein Mousavi up to his detention in early January. And here's some more food for thought: Tajik, like fellow advisor Alireza Beheshti, was released from Evin but only for a short time.

Interpretation? If Tajik does not make last night's statement, then he definitely returns to prison. Now there is a chance that he may remain free.

1050 GMT: Tajbakhsh Sentence Reduced. Fars News, quoting the lawyer for Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh, says that an Iranian appeal court has reduced Tajbakhsh's prison term for espionage from 15 years to five years. Tajbakhsh was arrested in July and sentenced in October.

1015 GMT: We Won't Leave Those Kids Alone. It's Iran police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam taking the lead in issuing warnings today:

We are closely watching the activities of the sedition movement and several people who were preparing to disrupt the February 11 rallies were arrested....There will be no worries in this regard. We are fully prepared for holding a safe and glorious rally.

Ahmadi-Moghaddam declared that police, the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij Islamic militia were "ready for any possible incident on February 11 and they will let no one create insecurity".

0905 GMT: 22 Bahman MTV. Performed by Blurred Vision and directed by Babak Payami, "Hey, Ayatollah, Leave Those Kids Alone":

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIP38eq-ywc[/youtube]

0855 GMT: Pressure on the Government. Ayatollah Dastgheib has criticised the "un-Islamic behaviour" of the Basij militia, and Ayatollah Ostadi has attacked the ideas of President Ahmadinejad and his chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

And the pro-Larijani Khabar Online will not let up: a series of "guest blogs" featured on the website call for respect of the press and warn that "self-made wars" serve only Iran's enemies and that some "will use every pretext to prevent criticism".

0845 GMT: Pressure on IRIB. The dispute between Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting and Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Imam, continues. Following the publication ofKhomeini's letter of complaint over the "censoring" of his grandfather's speeches, a reformist MP claims that many of his colleagues want to withdraw their support from IRIB and an ally of Ali Larijani, Ahmad Pournejati, has attacked the head of the broadcaster, Ezzatollah Zarghami.

0830 GMT: The "Mohareb" Sentences. Press TV --- curiously, almost a day after the news broke --- has repeated that one detainee has been sentenced to death and eight given long prison sentences for their "mohareb" (war against God) activities on Ashura. The Iranian regime had threatened to execute all nine.

0810 GMT: The Professors Write Khamenei. Iran Green Voice publishes a signed letter from 116 academics at Tarbiat Modarres University in Tehran, calling on the Supreme Leader to deal with the "cruelty" that has arisen within the Iranian system.

0805 GMT: Karroubi's Confirmation. Mehdi Karroubi's office has just announced that the cleric will be demonstrating tomorrow and has repeated the call for Iranian people to state their demands firmly but calmly. He is reportedly joining the march from Sadeghieh Square to Azadi Square at 10 a.m. local time (0630 GMT).

0800 GMT: Ebrahim Yazdi, former foreign minister and leader of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been moved from prison to hospital. Yazdi, detained since Ashura, has been in poor health for months.

0745 GMT: Less than 24 hours to 22 Bahman, and the report of Rafsanjani's "ultimatum" to the Supreme Leader, including the snap analysis from our correspondent, is still provoking lots of comment and speculation. Beyond that event, we  have posted an analysis of the political situation on the eve of Thursday's demonstrations.

UPDATED Iran Analysis: The Rafsanjani "Ultimatum" to the Supreme Leader

UPDATE 2100 GMT: Another possible twist tonight. Rafsanjani’s website has published an interview in which the former President talks about his letter to the Supreme Leader just before the elections, warning of President Ahmadinejad's "lies" and calling for a "fraudless" ballot. (Rafsanjani claims that that Khamenei did not object to the contents of the letter, but would have preferred it to have been published after the elections.) Rafsanjani also speaks at length about how he gathered funds for the clergy before the Revolution and how, together with others (such as Grand Ayatollahs Montazeri or Sane'i but with no reference to Khamenei), he was trusted by Ayatollah Khomeini to manage the revolutionaries’ funds.


The title of the interview: "In 42 some people were asking, 'Who will account for the blood of the 15 Khordad?'” That is a reference to the uprising of 5 June 1963, protesting the arrest of Khomeini; the protest was put down after six days by the Iranian military.

Perhaps Rafsanjani's question is not just historical recollection but an enquiry for today?

UPDATE 10 FEBRUARY, 1500 GMT: EA is now treated this story as confirmed. A reliable source has said that the Rafsanjani-Khamenei meeting was on Monday. Normally, in his official roles, Rafsanjani sees the Supreme Leaders on Tuesday; in this case, the former President asked for a special discussion.

While the immediate cause for Rafsanjani's intervention was the detention of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti and the reported search by Iranian authorities for Beheshti's wife, Rafsanjani did ask the Supreme Leader to act on all cases involving political prisoners. Our source notes perceptively the "7 Tir families", relatives of those killed in a bombing in the early days of the Revolution, had asked Rafsanjani for help with Beheshti and other cases; other families, learning of this appeal, then approached the former President.

The Rafsanjani intervention should also be connected to another important meeting, days earlier, between the Supreme Leader and Grand Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili, one of the most important clerics in Iran and Shi'a Islam. Mousavi-Ardebili, in his first meeting in 17 years with Khamenei, declared that he was "disappointed" in the Supreme Leader's actions and urged him to act decisively for justice in the cases of the detained.

An EA correspondent adds:

It is reported that Ardebili had told Khamenei, “I know the leaders of the protests in Qom and Tehran. I testify that they are after reforming the affairs of the state based on the constitution and are not after toppling you. Your concerns over this are misplaced."

By mentioning “Qom”, the seat of clerical learning in Iran, Ardebili is telling Khamenei that there is a substantial movement against the establishment in its heartland. The mention of “not after toppling you”: either means that Khamenei is very worried about his own position now or it is a threat from one of Shi'a Islam’s few Grand Ayatollahs. Ardebili could mean, "They are not after toppling you, but don’t do something that will force us, the marjas (senior clerics), to have to topple you."

--
Let’s assume that the Rah-e Sabz news about the Rafsanjani meeting with Supreme Leader, spurred by the attempt to arrest Alireza Beheshi’s wife, is accurate.

We could say that trying to arrest the daughter-in-law of Shahid Beheshti and traumatizing his grandchildren is just too much for Rafsanjani and he has finally snapped. In this case this could be the first “public” crack in the Rafsanjani-Khamenei relationship. This could create opportunities both for Ahmadinejad & Co. and for the Greens.

On the coup side, they could use this to isolate Khamenei even more and get him to agree to their strategy of further suppression and crackdown. On the Green side, they could use this to draw Rafsanjani (and those within the Iranian establishment who look up to him) away from Khamenei and Ahmadinejad. This would further undermine the legitimacy of Khamenei and the whole Islamic Republic as it stands.

There may be another explanation too....

As you recall just before 16 Azar (the protests of 7 December), Rafsanjani went to Mashhad and said that if the people do not want us, we will leave. At the time that was seen as distancing himself from Supreme Leader, and it may have encouraged more students (especially in smaller towns) to come out. One could argue that he was blowing onto the fire from a distance.

A few days ago, Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili went to Tehran to meet Khamenei. This was their first meeting in 17 years. Leaked details of the discussion suggest that Ardebili criticized Khamenei’s handling of the state affairs and asked for Alireza Beheshti to be freed. It is reported that the Supreme Leader dismissed the criticism and refused to help with Beheshti. This information was most probably leaked by someone close to Ardebili (as Khamenei would not want it to be known that he was criticized and is behind Beheshti’s detention).

Now a few days after that meeting and a day after the leaking of the details of the meeting, it is reported that Rafsanjani has criticized the state of affairs and the treatment of Beheshti. And again the news is leaked.

This comes soon after Mir Hossein Mousavi stated that the Revolution has failed to get rid of the roots of tyranny and dictatorship and that he is seeing signs of both in Iran today. Mehdi Karroubi has said that he does not believe in this kind of Islamic Republic. And Mohammad Khatami has indirectly accused Khamenei of being a partial arbiter. (Others like Ayatollah Dashgheib have also criticised the SL). All of these could lead to one logical conclusion: that Khamenei is not fit to lead the Islamic Republic.

Now it may be that Rafsanjani is also putting Khamenei under pressure, not just by his strong protest and “ultimatum” but by allowing the news to be leaked. If this is the case, Rafsanjani would have skilfully used the attempt to arrest Beheshti’s wife to his advantage. In this case, Khamenei should be very mad at the people behind the arrest.

This leaked news may also be an attempt by Rafsanjani to say to the protestors: go out on 22 Bahman, and we (Rafsanjani and his people) will ensure that the regime does not crack down too hard.

If so, this could be a tactic which Iranian insiders call “feshar az paeen, chaneh-zani az bala”: pressure from below, negotiations at the top. Khatami tried this during his Presidency, with limited success. At that time one could argue that there was not much pressure from below, but now it seems the pressure from below is quite strong. It remains to be seen how skilful the negotiators are.

Iran Analysis: On the Eve of 22 Bahman

By yesterday, political battle lines had pretty much been drawn for the protests on 22 Bahman, the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, this Thursday. The regime had made its threats and tried to disrupt the opposition, key figures such as Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi and other reformist parties and clerics had made their calls for peaceful demonstrations, and the Green movements (less visibly for obvious reasons) had put their preparations in place.

Then two events --- one confirmed, one rumoured --- shook up our analysis. First, Alireza Beheshti was released from prison last night after several weeks in detention. Mousavi's chief advisor had also been freed in the autumn after a brief spell in prison, but this move was more surprising. Ever since Ashura (27 December), the regime has been using arrests to try and break resistance, so why --- on the eve of 22 Bahman --- make an apparent concession?

Hours later, a possible explanation emerged. Rah-e-Sabz made its sensational claim that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani had personally intervened with a visit to the Supreme Leader after Iranian authorities attempted to arrest Beheshti's wife. He asked not only for a cessation to that threat but for the freeing of Beheshti, the son of one of the most famous figures of the 1979 Revolution. (See separate entry for analysis.)

Iran Snap Analysis: The Rafsanjani “Ultimatum” to the Supreme Leader

And there was more. Rah-e-Sabz claimed that Rafsanjani, having been "ambiguous" in his statements since early December, had given an "ultimatum" to the Supreme Leader to act against the abuses and injustices of the Iranian Government. The unsubtle implication, as Beheshti was freed last night, was that Ayatollah Khamenei had listened and accepted the former President's criticism.

Well, we'll see, since neither Rafsanjani nor the Supreme Leader --- or anyone else, for that matter --- is stepping up to confirm the report.

What is important, in the meantime, is that there is a significant difference on the eve of this event compared to the political environment before Ashura (27 December). On that occasion, the only prominent opposition figure who made a move was former President Mohammad Khatami, and his memorial speech for Grand Ayatollah Montazeri was rudely broken up by pro-Government protesters. Mousavi, Karroubi, and other senior clerics were all muted about the demonstrations to come. And, after those protests, "conservative" figures such as Ali Larijani were unstinting in their criticism of the "violent" and "foreign-backed" Green movement.

Now all these figures are in play. Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami have put down their political markers for a big opposition show on Thursday and promised more to come. Rafsanjani, for the first time since early December, may have made his manoeuvre to challenge the Government. And Larijani, joined by others within the establishment, is now targeting Ahmadinejad as much as any Green protester.

This political change should not overshadow the importance of the demonstrations on the ground tomorrow. The demands "from below" for legitimacy, justice, and freedom are just as necessary as any high-profile statement or even "ultimatum".

Instead, what we now may have, for the first time since November, are the two halves of the challenge to the Government, and possibly the Iranian system, coming together. If the numbers are large, and even more if those multitudes are peaceful, then the Green wave for change will carry more possibilities for the politicians and clerics; conversely, each move by those politicians and clerics will bolster the demonstrators who are risking arrest and condemnation just by stepping foot into the streets and squares of Tehran and other cities on Thursday.

"From top" and "from below": it is less than 24 hours to 22 Bahman.