The Latest from Iran (14 February): Step by Step

2140 GMT: The Evin Protests. Once again, families of detainees have protested outside Evin Prison. The demonstrations have been occurring almost every evening in recent weeks.

2030 GMT: US To Israel "No Attack"? A bit of a tangled message from Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, during his visit to Tel Aviv today. On the one hand, Mullen declared, "The outbreak of a conflict will be a big, big, big problem for all of us, and I worry a great deal about the unintended consequences of a strike." On the other, he still put out the escape clause for military action, "We haven't taken off any option from the table."

1735 GMT: Blogger and rights activist Ali Kalayi has been released from detention after posting $50,000 bail. Kalayi was arrested last Sunday for publishing a statement alleged to be from the Army in support of the Iranian people.

1710 GMT: Pardon This Interruption. To Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the US House of Representatives: you're a blowhard who should be remembered fo r what you did to your first wife rather than any "contribution" to US foreign policy. Especially when your approach to Iran is based on tired 1930s hyperbole rather than any approximation of knowledge.

NEW Iran Analysis: What Now for the Green Movement?
Iran: Reading Khabar’s “Conservative” Attack on Ahmadinejad
Iran: Mehdi Karroubi’s 1st Interview After 22 Bahman (13 February)
Iran: Desperately Seeking Sensible US Comment about 22 Bahman
Iran: “Allahu Akhbar from the Rooftops” — The 2009 Photo of the Year
Iran Video Special (2): Decoding the 22 Bahman Rally in Azadi Square
Iran Video Special (1): The 22 Bahman Attack on Karroubi?
The Latest from Iran (13 February): Re-assessment, Renewal

1700 GMT: Today's US Posture. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton talks tough as she visits Qatar before going to Saudi Arabia:

Iran leaves the international community little choice but to impose greater costs for its provocative steps. Together, we are encouraging Iran to reconsider its dangerous policy decisions. We are now working actively with our regional and international partners, in the context of our dual track approach, to prepare and implement new measures to convince Iran to change its course

Back in Washington, National Security Council James Jones took the rhetoric to the point of "spontaneous" toppling of the Iranian Government:

We're drawing our conclusions based on non-action on the Iranian part and now moving towards a clear set of sanctions. I think we will get tough as quickly as possible. But you know, whether it happens this week or next week is not the issue.

While the Administration was not advocating regime change, in the context of Iran's internal issues, "very tough sanctions ... could well trigger regime change".

1500 GMT: Presenting 22 Bahman. The "conservative"  Combatant Clergy Association has issued a statement declaring "victory" in Thursday's rallies with the "unity" of the Iranian nation made clear. It asks reformists, even though they have been insulted by their opponents, to join them while maintaining a call to prosecute those who act against the people.

1455 GMT: Big in the USA. President Ahmadinejad's chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai may have his problems at home but he's consoling himself that he --- or at least his Government --- is wowing everyone abroad. He has declared that, with its successes in laser technology and stem-cell research, Iran's victory is being celebrated "even in the USA".

1445 GMT: On the International Front. Good to know that Iran and the US can still find common ground. Iranian state media has supportive words today for NATO's offensive against the Taliban in central Afghanistan, with the town of Marjah "a breeding ground for both insurgents and opium poppy cultivation for years".

1200 GMT: Reasons to Remember. Borzou Daragahi and Ramin Mostaghim, writing for the Los Angeles Times, post an article based on the accounts of detainees at Iran's Kahrizak Prison:

They say the Kahrizak experience has only made them more determined. Few of the ex-inmates have given up their political activities. Hatef says he's trying to prepare for a long fight. When he sees the riot police approach at demonstrations, he draws comfort from a popular slogan that has become a signature of the protest movement.

"Don't be afraid, don't be afraid!" it goes. "We are all together."

1115 GMT: Reasons to Be Cheerful. Babak Dad posts that the Iranian opposition is "tired but praises hope".

And, at the Winter Olympics, Marjan Kalhor has become Iran's first female competitor. Kalhor, who will compete in the slalom and giant slalom, carries the flag for Iran's four-person team in the opening ceremony.

0920 GMT: News Accompanies Analysis. Mr Verde's evaluation of the next steps for the Green Movement is complemented this morning by the call by the Islamic Iran Participation Front to find ways out of the crisis based on the propositions of movement leaders.

0900 GMT: Follow-ups. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty summarises the story of the beating of Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali, while Jon Swain of the Sunday Times --- with a bit of input from EA --- considers the on-line battle between the regime and opposition.

0805 GMT: EA will be on limited service this morning to celebrate Valentine's Day (yes, we still hang on to a bit of romance here), but we have two analyses and an interview to get the day off to a flying start: Mehdi Karroubi offers his first thoughts after 22 Bahman, we take a look at the re-emerging challenge to the President from "conservatives", and Mr Verde has a searching, challenging consideration of "What Next for the Green Movement?"

Middle East Analysis: The Iran-Russia-Israel Triangle

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is leaving for Russia on Sunday. At his weekly cabinet meeting, he said that he will push Moscow, "an important power and ally", for crippling sanctions on Iran during his meetings with  President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. "If Russia agrees to sanctions, China will find itself alone and may be forced to line up with the Western powers," an Israeli official said.

Middle East Inside Line: “Organ Harvesting” Furour, Clinton in Gulf, Hariri's Death, and More
Israel, Hamas, and Russia: Who is in Bed with the Bear?

Undoubtedly Netanyahu will ask Moscow to freeze its supply of advanced S-300 surface-to-air missiles to Iran and to give full support at the UN Security Council to sanctions. Yet that raises a question from the other side. Given that Russia is involved not only in Israel's Palestinian question but also in Israel's "Hamas problem", on which case is Tel Aviv ready to give concessions?

Then add Iran to the triangle. What might Moscow seek to gain in Middle East at the expense of loosening its relationship with Iran, a relationship which once could have been its spearhead in the region? Will Moscow run the risk of losing a "nuclear-going" Iran or limit its response by not accepting Netanyahu's demands?

Ahh, the risk of going bed with the bear....

Middle East Inside Line: Netanyahu To Moscow, "Organ Harvesting" Furour, Clinton in Gulf, and More

British MP Disciplined over Israel "Organ Harvest" Story: Baroness Jenny Tonge, a Liberal Democrat lawmaker in Britain, has been fired from her position by leader Nick Clegg after she called for an enquiry into claims that Israel Defense Forces soldiers harvested organs in Haiti following last month's earthquake.

Clinton Talking Iran Sanctions in Gulf: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visits Saudi Arabia and the Qatar this week. U.S. officials hinted Saturday that one way Saudi Arabia could help diplomatically over the Iran issu ewould be to offer guarantees that it would meet China's oil requirements.

NEW Middle East Analysis: The Iran-Russia-Israel Triangle
Palestine Video: The Avatar Protest (12 February)

Senator Kerry Warns Arabs: Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry said at a U.S.-Islamic World Forum in Doha, Qatar, on Saturday that "peace may never come if it is now realized now":

Building trust must be a step-by-step process, and the region must recognize Israel's desire for acceptance and its fundamental need for security. And perhaps most importantly, the leading voices in the Arab world have a vital role to play with their people in creating the atmosphere for lasting peace with Israel.

In southern Israel, I also saw the toll that Hamas rockets had inflicted in a barrage that no country would endure interminably.

At this crucial juncture, Israel should refrain from taking steps, which have the potential to prejudge negotiations and create tensions

5th Anniversary of Hariri's Death: Tens of thousands of people from across the country gathered in Beirut's main square Sunday to mark the fifth anniversary of the killing of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri.

"We will show that we want to continue in the path of Rafik Hariri," declared his son, Prime Minister Saad Hariri.

The ‘Fatah-Gate’ sex scandal: Rafik Husseini, the director of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s bureau, is under immense pressure to resign after he was caught on tape naked in the bedroom of an Arab woman from Jerusalem.

Palestine Video: The Avatar Protest (12 February)

From Friday's weekly protest on Friday by Palestinians in the Bilin, demonstrating against the Israeli occupation and the ongoing construction of a barrier. The analogy with "Na'vi" people in Avatar caught the attention of journalists, but Israeli soldiers were not impressed, firing tear gas at the protesters.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KStnbXWfnuk[/youtube]

Middle East-Afghanistan Inside Line: Ayalon on Peace; NATO Operation Against Taliban; US Relations with Syria & Israel

Iran Analysis: What Now for the Green Movement?

Mr Verde writes for EA:

Three days after Bahman, we are still trying to pin down the size and significance of the events. Some claims can be dealt with as exaggerations: the regime's assertion that up to 50 million Iranians, in a country of 70 million, came out in support of the regime appears to be the silliness of spiralling rhetoric. Others can't be verified: the opposition argues that many of the people on the streets on that day were actually Green supporters who were marching in silence.

What we can "know", from the amateur footage that has had to substitute for a banned or restricted foreign media, is the heavy security presence on the streets of Tehran and elsewhere in Iran and the brutal suppression of opposition supporters. Those images were  reinforced in a series of interviews by two of Mehdi Karroubi’s sons (the third was arrested and beaten)  describing the attack on their father's entourage and the greatest security clampdown since the June elections.

We can surmise from Google's satellite photo of Azadi Square and surrounding streets at the time of the  main rally that there were sparse crowds in the square and that who were attending had been brought in by the large numbers of parked buses in the area, Amature footage taken of the crowd suggests that most who were there had little enthusiasm for supporting the government or the regime.



No matter how few the pro-government numbers were or how indifferent they seemed, the Greens were hoping for more of a show of presence on that day; in that sense, the regime may have achieved one of its goals. Yet that suppression also brought a "victory" for the opposition, who generated publicity for their cause because of the security forces’ brutal suppressions. By its actions before 22 Bahman and on that day, the regime has demonstrated how scared it is of the Green Movement. There have been trials, executions, arrest, threats, mass mobilization of security forces, and of crowds for rallies. There has been use of tear gas against a 72 year-old cleric who was a regime-approved Presidential candidate only eight months ago (Mehdi Karroubi).

But is this exposure of a regime's nervousness and fear enough to bring success?

The Green Movement is made up of a loose collection of widely varying groups, ranging from Islamic Republic reformists to exiled opposition organisations.  Originally the movement was calling for cancellation of the presidential elections, which it said was fraudulent, but the authorities' ignorance of that call and response with brute force brought the perception that the problem was the Islamic Republic’s entire system of governance.

The question is no longer just the legitimacy of the Ahmadinejad Government, but the legitimacy of the Republic and its core values like velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical supremacy). The slogans on the streets shifted from “where is my vote?” to “death to Khamenei”. At the same time there were signs of strain within the Green Movement. Some factions, mostly exiled groups allied to the movement, were calling for dismantlement of the Islamic Republic and a new Constitution. Others, mostly the leaders within Iran, were calling for reform of Islamic Republic, but within its Constitution.

As the protests continued, and especially after the events of Ashura (27 December), which did more damage to the Islamic credentials of the regime than any other single event, the Movement’s leaders within the establishment --- Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami and other senior clerics and politicians --- have started questioning the legal and religious legitimacy of the Islamic Republic. Mousavi said that the 1979 Islamic Revolution had failed to achieve its original aim of eradicating tyranny and dictatorship in Iran, and Karroubi said that he does not believe in the form of the Republic that exists in Iran today. This was a dramatic shift in a short period of time. Significantly Mousavi, Karroubi and the other opposition leaders were basing their new assessments on the actions of the regime, not on a change of heart or political values.

So it seems that the regime by its own actions has managed to discredit itself to the point that even its own former high-ranking officials are now openly questioning its legitimacy. These pronouncements by the Movement’s leaders in Iran reduce the gap between their stance and that of the external opposition. They also re-confirm that the actual movement is based and operates in Iran, with the overseas based opposition acting in an important supporting role.

The Green Movement has demonstrated that it has widespread support and is adaptable. But this is not enough for its success. Part of the problem is that the Movement is facing a leadership in the Islamic Republic in the form of Ayatollah Khamenei, who seems to be intent on proving he was right when on 13 June he declared the election was over and there was no crisis. The regime seems to be backing itself into a corner with every action it takes, but the Green leadership is not able to bring about the reforms that it says (and promised during the presidential campaign) are needed to rescue the regime and the country. There is a dangerous stalemate as Khamenei declares, "You are either with me, or we all go down together."

The immediate Green re-assessment has been of tactics. The Green Movement has been using the regime’s own many public occasions to make its persistent presence known. Usually this has taken the form of taking to the routes that are announced for the official marches, but using Green signs and slogans. If the Greens were stopped from taking part in the announced routes, they would disperse across a wide area and continue with their protests. This would not allow the Greens to gather in large numbers, but it would stretch the resources of the security forces to breaking point (and as seen on Ashura to their humiliating retreat in some places).

For 22 Bahman, Mousavi called for Green supporters to take part in the official marches, but with their own markings (green signs).  Seeing the success of the protestors against the riot police on Ashura, some from within the movement called for a “Trojan Horse” approach. Protestors would dress like the government supporters with no visible signs of green, try to get in front of the podium, and then heckle Ahmadinejad. A few were even speculating whether they could pull a “Ceaucescu” on him, referring to the Romanian dictator who was overthrown and executed in 1989.

It seems the events of Ashura had got to some people’s heads. They had forgotten that this is primarily a movement for peaceful and gradual change and not for violent revolution or public executions.  While 22 Bahman may seem a disappointment to some, just try to imagine if the “Trojan Horse” tactic was actually carried out. It could have led to open street fights between well equipped security forces and the empty handed protestors. It could have been a bloodbath.

The lesson? In the run-up to 22 Bahman, there was much anticipation in the opposition camp, but no real sign of a proper action plan. Everyone was talking about “something” happening, but no one was able to say “what” or by “what means” or indeed “what next”.

And this is the weakness of the Green Movement. While the leadership is becoming more articulate in stating its views and aims, it is failing to define a tactical plan of action and passing it onto its supporters.  It is looking like a strong army with numerous and brave soldiers and clever generals but weak communications. This is partly due to the heavy government crackdown. Almost all of Mousavi’s and Karoubi’s advisors are in prison, there is no independent media, satellite TV channels are disrupted, and the Internet is heavily filters and at times disconnected.

There is another problem, however: the movement’s growth and success in a short period of time. On the morning of 13 June (the day after the elections) no one would have been able to predict that the regime would be forced to lock down Tehran as a military camp and bus in foreign journalists, like children being taken to an out-of-town attraction, for Ahmadinejad’s 22 Bahman speech.

The pressure of the public protests have put the regime on the back foot and caused it make numerous errors of judgement that would come back and haunt it in the future. But the leadership of the Green Movement has not been able to tap into the full potential of the protest. Although it has managed to clarify its aims, it has not yet produced a clear road map.

The events of the past eight months have proven that the regime is not able to quash it. But the Green Movement is no longer content with just existing and surviving; it has passed its phase of vulnerability and infancy and now feels mature enough to be looking for actual results from its own actions, rather than just surviving the regime onslaught. The expectations prior to 22 Bahman point to this. Here lies the challenge for its leadership.

With the regime has been reduced to a point where it is celebrating its own survival rather than success, healthy debate is starting within the movement about its future directions and tactics (for example, whether to just stick to the current practice of attending the government marches, or to starting looking towards public strikes, etc.). This discussion, however, cannot just circulate amongst the grassroots if regime weakness is to be converted into positive change.

Mir Hossein Mousavi has on several occasions called the people the true leaders of the Green Movement. He calls himself one of the Movement’s followers. This is all well when trying to credit the people for the movement’s resilience, but it is time for the movement’s leaders to put aside modesty and actually lead the movement with tactical direction.  If they are for any reason unwilling or unable to do so, they need to make it clear.