Israel-Syria: Will Their Tensions Lead to War in Lebanon?

After the exchange of threatening statements between Israeli and Syrian officials this week, Israel's Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman continued his bombardment in an interview with Israel's Channel 2 news:

I don't work for the media or for public opinion. My response, which was made to clarify that the situation is unacceptable, was immediately met with hysteria in Israel: 'How dare we annoy the tyrant?' I am sorry about this habit of the left in Israel. I think that in the Middle East serious things should not be left unanswered.

Israel & Syria: Different Political Calculations, Different Conclusions

On Saturday, Saudi daily Al-Okaz reported, from senior Lebanese sources, that Hezbollah has announced emergency readiness because of the possibility of an Israeli operation amidst the growing tensions between Syria and Israel.

The official Syrian newspaper Tishreen said that "whichever path Israel chooses, it will find Syria prepared for either peace or war". In Israel, Haaretz's Aluf Benn warned that the continuing tension will draw Israel and Syria to a war in the region.

Iran Special: The Weakness of the Regime "It's Deja Vu All Over Again"

It's one of those phrases that I have always wanted to use in a news story. Yogi Berra, a great American baseball player but a notorious mangler of language, once said of the feats of the teammates, "It's like déjà vu all over again."

A few months we wrote of an attempt by the Ahmadinejad Government, as it set out the priority of a deal with the "West" on Iran's nuclear programme, that this was a blatant attempt to divert attention from internal political crisis. We added that, despite the headlines that the manoeuvre would get, the effort would soon be exposed.

Iran: The “Reconciliation” Proposals of Karroubi’s Etemade Melli Party
Iran: “Conservative Opposition” Offer to Mousavi “Back Khamenei, We Sack Ahmadinejad”
Iran Document: Karroubi’s Open Letter for 22 Bahman (6 February)
Iran: Quick! Look Over There! The Nuclear Distraction

In less than 24 hours, we were proved right as the "conservative opposition", figures like Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, and the Green movement attacked the Government on a number of fronts.

Yesterday, it was déjà vu all over again.


In the morning, all the buzz in the US and British press was Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's declaration in Munich that an agreement could be reached on a "swap" of uranium outside Iran. There was the inevitable cycle of surprise that Tehran could hold out the prospect and then of scepticism as "Western" politicians put the brakes on expectations.

We, however, were listening to the tick-tick-tick of opposition within the Iranian establishment. As early as Thursday, there was unsubtle signals from Parliament and key politicians that they were unhappy with President Ahmadinejad's declaration on national television that uranium could be sent outside Iran. Yesterday morning, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani left no doubt: his attack on the deal was not, first and foremost, an attack on the "West" but on his President.

Even this, however, was just another act in the nuclear sideshow. Throughout Saturday, only a few days before the demonstrations of  22 Bahman (11 February), the main event was the exposure of weakness and fear, not only in the Government but within the Iranian regime.

It came in yet more statements from opposition figures. Have no doubt: this is no longer a Mousavi or a Khatami or a Karroubi putting out a declaration but a co-ordinated campaign --- the "relay of opposition" --- to keep the Government unsettled and to build up momentum for 22 Bahman. Yesterday it was a statement from Mohammad Khatami, Mehdi Karroubi's forthright boost for protest and criticism of the regime in interviews and on his website, and then Karroubi's party Etemade Melli putting out a manifesto for this week's demonstrations.

The Government response? A whimper. As President Ahmadinejad went to a girls' school to proclaim the Revolution lived through more than 1200 education and sports projects, a couple of officials like Iran's police chief insisted that the protests would be broken. Bluster rather than substance was exposed, however, when it was the magazine of the Revolutionary Guards that was the key site for warning Karroubi-Khatami-Mousavi, "Repent or Else".

Or Else what? While the extent of the regime's crackdown should not be underestimated --- the detainees languish in prison, the Internet crawls to a near-stop --- the persistence of the opposition is clear outside Iran and, I suspect, inside the country. (Note that Mousavi started this latest cycle of declarations more than a week before 22 Bahman, probably to assure that --- despite the limits on communications --- there was enough time to get the message throughout Green networks.)

So last night it was not just a case of opposition confidence. It was also the clearest sign of regime fear. No firm predictions, but diligent historians may one day blow the dust off Saturday's open letter of prominent member of Parliament Ali Motahhari to Mousavi.

Of course, Motahhari tries to show strength through tough language: "Our gracious Leader in his recent speech has mildly described the actions of you and Karroubi as 'negligence'. These are signals for you to change your position with the aim of strengthening national unity." However, beneath the demand is a pleading: accept the supremacy of the Supreme Leader, and we will deal with this President who is undermining the Republic.

That letter,disseminated quickly in state media, is not one of a regime in control. That letter is not one of a regime in the blush of confidence. Even if the most cynical of us think it is a trick --- Mousavi acknowledges Khameini, walking away from the Green opposition, but Ahmadinejad stays --- you don't play tricks on opponents whom you think are on the verge of defeat.

Compare Motahhari's move with the previous pre-demonstration displays of machismo by the regime: the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayer of 19 June, the warnings before Qods Day in September not to take to the streets, the finger-wagging and attempts at intimidation before Ashura, even the threats of execution last week. The leaders in this system are shaking.

And, on the other side, compare the relay of statements from Karroubi-Khatami-Mousavi to their lack of statements before Ashura. This time they are vocal, this time there is no doubt that --- while the protest should be non-violent and respectful --- the dissent should be visible.

All the while, below the public level of the regime's fretting and the defiance of its challengers, the Green Movement(s) plan.

It is four days to 22 Bahman.

Europe Inside Line: A New Co-operation for France and Germany

New EA correspondent Aysegül Er offers this report on events in Europe:

On Thursday, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, meeting in Paris, put forth a ten-year blueprint for political and economical cooperation. The blueprint complements and extends a security cooperation which has been marked for 20 years by regular meetings of the Franco-German Defense and Security Council and an economic relationship in which bilateral trade reached €137.3 billion ($187 billion) in 2008.

The new cooperation covers diplomatic policy, security, defense coordination, economic and fiscal initiatives, environment protection, and biological diversity. Technological concerns also have emerged in initiatives such as a cross-border electro-mobility program for electric cars, joint bureaus dedicated to renewable energy, and aeronautic co-operation.



Sarkozy offered this explanation for the measures, "The financial crisis forced us to understand each other better ... Now we have decided to take it to another level." Sarkozy  added that France and Germany will contribute to the European Union’s common policy for improvement of economical conditions through this cooperation. A French official added that the two countries would extend their the cooperation to exchanges between companies as well as between employers and unions.

Merkel argued that developed countries should promote this type of co-operation by taking responsibility for sustainable growth, "We do everything to implement sustainable development and to include the principle of sustainability as a guideline of our common shares.”

Merkel and Sarkozy went beyond their countries to talk about budget stability of in the Euro-zone, mentioning debt crises in locations like Greece and Portugal. They argued that these countries should avoid such problems, both for the stability of their domestic situation and for the progress of the European economy.

The French and German leaders also announced a military step with the production of the A400M "transformed plane". The A400M is the first truly new military transport aircraft in more than 30 years, with twice the capacity and twice the payload of current models. It will be Europe’s biggest defense programme.

Iran Space Shocker: Turtle-Astronauts Defect to West

Hat-tip to Jeesh Daram at Iranian.com:

Earlier this week, President Ahmadinejad declared the Mother of All Space Triumphs for the Islamic Republic with the launch of a satellite-boosting rockets. Iran's brave astro-warriors were two turtles, a mouse, and some worms.



Unfortunately, it appears that the Space Age victory has turned into a defeat. As soon as the rocket was beyond Iranian air space, the turtle-astronauts sent radio messages to the Free "orld announcing their resignation from their duties with the Islamic Republic and asked the US Government to grant them political asylum and, hopefully, a ride back on the Space Shuttle. Mir Hossein Mousavi took immediate advantage of the situation, called the turtles "brave members of the Green Party". (Ahmadinejad's press advisor later put out a statement, without mentioning the defection, that the turtles' shells were in fact not Green but Blue.)



There is still no news about the whereabouts of the worms, but Enduring America has picked up signals of a press conference from inside the capsule in which the "rat" has denounced the decision by the turtles and called them "agents of Zionists and monarchists". There are rumours that a fight has broken out between the animals in the midst of the weightlessness.

BREAKING NEWS: President Ahmadinejaad has just told reporters that Iran will free three detained American hikers in exchange for the return of the turtles, whom he claimed had been abducted by the CIA, to Iran.

Ahmadinejad also denied that he was ever inside the capsule with a monkey (see photo), as they are "just good friends".

Iran: The "Reconciliation" Proposals of Karroubi's Etemade Melli Party

Hours after Mehdi Karroubi made his latest high-profile declaration sanctioning protest on 22 Bahman (11 February) and criticising the Government, his party Etemade Melli have consolidated the initiative by posting their proposals for reconciliation:

1. The immediate and unconditional release of all political prisoners;

2. Providing an open atmosphere for the media and press, recognising criticism, offering justice in use of the national media (state-run TV and radio) for all the levels of people and different political groups;

Iran Document: Karroubi’s Open Letter for 22 Bahman (6 February)

3. Removing the obstacles against the activities of different political organisations, groups, and parties;


4. Removing the security atmosphere, the police state, and the environment of fear;

5. Removing the appointed oversight of elections (Guardian Council), holding free elections, and preventing fraud in elections;

6. Preventing [the interference of] armed forces in economic and political affairs of the country;

7. Putting an end to the shameful analogies made by some media outlets and authorities between the true owners of the revolution --- honourable veterans of the Iran-Iraq war and allies of Imam Khomeini (the Green leaders and senior reformist figures) --- with terrorists who betray their homeland and nation, and using this comparison to lay the grounds for repression. These movements do not even show respect to Imam Khomeini and, to achieve their hideous goals, distort and selectively use Imam Khomeini’s remarks so that the family of Imam Khomeini has strongly objected to this as well;

8. Following justified methods in the judiciary and holding open trials with the presence of juries when dealing with political charges, carrying all the principles of the Constitution in these cases;

9. Holding a referendum to discover the clear and lawful opinion of the nation regarding some of the most important issues of the country.

The Etemad Melli party urges Grand Ayatollahs, religious figures, scholars and intellectuals, academics, students, and all different classes of the society to have a wise presence in all aspects [of Iranian life] and, by resisting any violation of the fundamental goals of the Islamic Revolution, make the conditions suitable for resolving the current crisis and not letting the Revolution get in the hands of deceitful and untrustworthy individuals.