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Saturday
Feb062010

Iran: "Conservative Opposition" Offer to Mousavi "Back Khamenei, We Sack Ahmadinejad"

At the end of an intriguing political day, another twist: the high-profile member of Parliament, Ali Motahhari, an ally of Ali Larijani and a critic of the Ahmadinejad Government, has written an open letter to Mir Hossein Mousavi. (Note "open", which raises this to a very public signal of the position of the "conservative opposition".)

The summary of the letter, published in The Tehran Times, deserves to be quoted in full. At one level, the reason for publication is obvious: Motahhari is asking Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to make clear their allegiance to the Supreme Leader and the system of velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical supremacy). There is another level of significance, however, Motahhari's unsubtle implication is that, if Mousavi and Karroubi come "within the system", then the abusers in the Government can be dealt with --- and "dealt with" may include the President himself

It is left up to readers to consider whether this move is linked to our analysis last month of a post-Ashura plan, involving Speaker of Parliament Larijani, Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, and Secretary of the Expediency Council and Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, to isolate and possibly remove Ahmadinejad:
I have read your interview in the Kalemeh website and saw positive and negative points in your remarks. I believe that you have stated the pains well, but you have not suggested remedies appropriately. The gist of your remarks is that you have entered the scene for making reforms not for seeking power, taking revenge, or devastating (the country). This approach can be the pivot of unity and the common cause to deal with the current political crisis, especially when one of the bases of the Islamic teachings is continuous social reform.


You in your statements have talked about the administration’s tendencies for breaking law and an inclination towards totalitarianism. You have said that the administration does not account for his actions to the Majlis (Parliament) and the judiciary. You have also mentioned explicitly and implicitly the violent treatments towards the protestors and a negligence by those who been managing the crisis.

Don’t you think that those who are blamed for such offences are seeking to make the current situation continue? Don’t you think that unity and calm are a deadly poison for them? Don’t you think the current situation makes it hard for the Majlis and the judiciary to deal with lawbreakers? For example in the current situation, it is possible to ask the president questions about some lawbreaking and cultural liberalism, but currently such legal actions are regarded as joining the leaders of protesters and attempting to intensify the crisis.

So you and Mehdi Karroubi have become obstacles in the path of making reforms that you and other considerate revolutionary figures call for. I am pretty sure that the grand Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution will deal with the offenses of the respected President, the totalitarians, and some extremists who claim to uphold principlism, if he has peace of mind about the actions of you two respected (figures). At least try (my advice) for several months, if it was not the case, then you can continue your path; the path that I believe is futile and damaging.

Some positive points and unifying steps are seen in your interview such as denouncing the foreign-based media outlets, distancing yourself from anti-Islamic slogans, and emphasizing to be committed to the Constitution. But according to the Constitution, the Leader says the last word on the political and social issues, even if some people are not convinced (about the decision). You have not heeded this principle in your interview duly. Some sections of your interview reveal that you are not willing that the crisis end and you think you are defending people’s rights.

However, by preparing the ground for lawbreaking, people’s rights are violated. The foreign enemies will take advantage (of the current situation) and our system and national interests are undermined. Our gracious Leader in his recent speech has mildly described the actions of you and Karroubi as “negligence.” These are signals for you to change your position with the aim of strengthening national unity. Even if you are right about the recent events, you should take Imam Ali (AS) as a model and give up your rights for Islamic unity and the preservation of Islam, and the public’s rights will be pursued somewhere else. This expectation from you who has a good revolutionary record is not a remote possibility.
Saturday
Feb062010

The Latest from Iran (6 February): Eyes on the Real Prize

2200 GMT: And The Pace Accelerates. Hard to keep up tonight --- Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Melli party has now made another move for 22 Bahman, following up the cleric's declarations today with a list of proposals for reconciliation. We have posted them in a separate entry.

2100 GMT: An Extraordinary Offer? We have posted what we think might be a significant move by the "conservative opposition" to the President: an open letter to Mir Hossein Mousavi with the offer, "Back Khamenei and We Can Move Against Ahmadinejad".

1950 GMT: Another Attack on Ahmadinejad's Camp. Ayatollah Safi Golpaygani has effectively asked for the President's Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, to be put on trial. Once again, the challenge is circulated through the pro-Rafsanjani Ayande News.

NEW Iran: The “Reconciliation” Proposals of Karroubi’s Etemade Melli Party
NEW Iran: “Conservative Opposition” Offer to Mousavi “Back Khamenei, We Sack Ahmadinejad”
NEW Iran Space Shocker: Turtle-Astronauts Defect to West
NEW Iran Document: Karroubi’s Open Letter for 22 Bahman (6 February)
NEW Iran: Quick! Look Over There! The Nuclear Distraction
NEW Iran Document: Iranian Journalists Write Their Overseas Colleagues About 22 Bahman
NEW The Netherlands: Court Throws Out Ban on Iranian Students
Latest Iran Video: Claimed Protest in Southern Iran (1 February)
Latest Iran Video: What Does the Iranian Public Really Think? (4 February)
Iran Analysis: The Missing Numbers in the Economy
The Latest from Iran (5 February): Into the Tunnel


1800 GMT: We're taking a break for a while, so we have posted a Saturday Special: "Iran's Turtle-Astronauts Defect to West".

1650 GMT: Not Us. Both Iran's head of police, Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam and his Tehran counterpart Ahmad-Reza Radan have declared they had no role in the Kahrizak Prison scandal.

1645 GMT: A Less Upbeat Approach for 22 Bahman. The Kargozaran Party, fostered by Hashemi Rafsanjani in the 1990s, has put out a different, pessimistic criticism of the Government, noting that the revolutionaries of 1979 are either without hope or in jail. It states that these are difficult times for the country and the people, whose rights are ignored, and difficult times for political parties who are under pressure. They have restated Ayatollah Khomeini's slogan "Islamic Republic, not a word less or more".

1640 GMT: No Conciliation from Khamenei. Reformist websites are featuring the claim that the Supreme Leader turned down a request from Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili to free top Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti, saying that he would not interfere in the case and was leaving it to Iran's judiciary.

1630 GMT: For What It's Worth. I suspect that --- at this point --- this is no more than posture, but Iran's Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei has announced that a second group of members of Parliament has sued Mir Hossein Mousavi.

And another warning from Sobh–e-Sadegh, the magazine of the Revolutionary Guard, which has condemned the Green movement leaders and asked them to repent before 22 Bahman or face being "confronted and punished harshly". (English-language summary)

1610 GMT: We have now posted Mehdi Karroubi's open letter, published today: "The common face of this movement is holding to the right to vote, free elections, a free press, the unconditional freedom of political prisoners, the reform of the work of governing and legislating and respect for the people’s civil rights."

1550 GMT: And From the Other Corner. After 72 hours of relative quiet, the "reformist" opposition has revved up today. Former President Mohammad Khatami has made another call for 22 Bahman (original in Parleman News):
We should not think that after the victory of the Islamic Revolution on 11 February everything is done, but the fact is that 11 February is only a beginning of the hard efforts of the people in order to achieve the goals and demands of the revolution.

Reform is nothing separate from this path and that is why we believe that it has deep roots and cannot be eliminated.

And here comes Mehdi Karroubi with a double declaration: we are about to post the full text of his latest statement on his website Saham News. Meanwhile, he has given an interview to the German magazine Der Spiegel, restating his defense of protest and condemnation of the Government in recent weeks:
The political prisoners must be set free, we need freedom of the press and freedom of assembly, our electoral law must be changed and a free election must take place. But then the current government would hardly be able to hold on to power.

1540 GMT: Now This is Getting Interesting (cont.): First there is Speaker of Parliament's Larijani assault on the President, then there is his deputy Mohammad Reza's Bahonar's criticism, as he warned Ahadminejad supporters, "At least for the sake of your own benefit do not condemn the previous Presidencies."

And there's more: Bahonar claimed that the Presidency of Hashemi Rafsanjani (1989-1997) was the "best and most productive time for the country since the Revolution". eras.

1525 GMT: Larijani Fights Back Against Ahmadinejad. Now this nuclear business is getting interesting. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, speaking at Tehran University, has put out a series of criticisms of talks on uranium enrichment: the claim of the "West" to be concerned about Iran's nuclear programme is just "political fraud"; its manoeuvres are “double-sided and prejudicial”; “Iranians are not so gullible" as to believe the negotiations are genuine.

A heads-up, however, to Western news agencies who headline: "Iran's Larijani Blasts West Over Nuclear Deal". It's not the West who is his primary target, but the one Iranian who is too "gullible" in this affair: a Mr. M. Ahmadinejad.

1205 GMT: Once Again, With Feeling. Iran's police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam has issued another warning that protest on 22 Bahman will be put down:
Now that the different dimensions of the sedition are clear, we won't show any more tolerance. Police will act firmly to defend the society's security and those who break the law will be dealt with severely.

Moghadam also returned to his declaration that Iran's police would take control of the Internet and mobile-phone texting to break the demonstrations: ""The new technologies allow us to identify conspirators and those who are violating the law, without having to control all people individually."

1155 GMT: Back in Iran. Ahh, here comes the fight-back on Ahmadinejad's nuclear move. Ayande News passes on the objections of the "hard-line" Kayhan to any swap of Iran's uranium stock outside the country.

1125 GMT: And the Sideshow. Almost all media are now jumping the nuclear cliff, jumping into the phase of "Western" reaction to Foreign Minister Mottaki's statement last night. US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates takes the soundbite lead, "I don't have the sense we are close to an agreement" (watch to see if the Turks, whom Gates was meeting in Ankara, are as dismissive). The BBC adds more cold water from the German Foreign Minister, Guido Westerwelle, and the European Union's head of foreign policy, Catherine Ashton.

1010 GMT: The Main Event. Despite Iranian Foreign Manouchehr Mottaki's attempt to put attention on the nuclear issue (see separate entry) at the Munich Security Conference, the post-election crisis made the agenda during Mottaki's public discussion with Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt.

Mottaki insisted that most Iranians accepted the result of the June Presidential election "except a very few people who started violations, who did crimes, who burned houses and buses and damaged anything in the streets". He challenged the audience, "Are you tolerant in your countries to violations and crimes?"

Bildt asked Mottaki for a promise that nine political prisoners condemned to death would not be executed ---"that would clearly have the most detrimental effect on the other aspects of the (EU-Iran) relationship" --- but Mottaki returned to the refrain of an 85 percent turnout in the election and an Ahmadinejad victory by 11 million votes. The remark brought hisses and boos from the audience.

(This exchange was noted by The Earth Times. We're still looking for a sign that Western "mainstream" media, led by the nuclear issue, have taken any notice. Meanwhile, credit to the German television station which did put forward questions on the internal situation, as well as the nuclear matter, to Mottaki in an interview.)

0945 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? We apologise: it's not all nukes for the Iranian Government today. President Ahmadinejad visited a girls' school today to declare that more than 1200 educational and sports projects have been launched around Iran.

0940 GMT: The Committee on Human Rights Reporters updates on prominent writer and literary critic Khalil Darmanki, detained for almost 40 days in ward 209 of Evin Prison.

0935 GMT: We've split off our first update --- noting the Iran Government's effort, using a "deal" on the uranium enrichment issue, to turn eyes away from the forthcoming 22 Bahman protests --- as a separate entry.

0925 GMT: The International Human Rights Campaign in Iran highlights the case of seven students arrested after a protest at Tehran University, condemning the execution of Ehsan Fattahian, on 16 November. The whereabouts of Pakhshan Azizi, Amanj Heidari, Leila Mohammadi, Ahmad Ismaili, Sarveh Veisi, Abdullah Arefi, and Hajhar Yousefi are still unknown. Sources say three of the students have been on hunger strike amidst torture, intimidation, and threats of rape by Ministry of Information agents.

0915 GMT: 40 Nobel Prize laureates have taken out an advertisement in The New York Times denouncing "the repression of the Iranian people" by the Ahmadinejad Government.

0855 GMT: No! Look Over Here! More from Iran's state media: Defence Minister Ahmad Vahidi opened two new missile production plants on Saturday, just three days after Iran fired a rocket carrying live animals into space."

0840 GMT: Non-News of the Day (So Far). Despite heated and anxious rumours across the Internet, the regime did not carry out the executions of nine political prisoners (four pre-election, five post-election) sentenced to death for mohareb (war against God).

0835 GMT: Some of the News that the Iran Government Would Prefer You Not Notice. We've posted an open letter from Iranian journalists to their overseas colleagues, urging them to cover the most important stories --- rather than the State set-pieces --- on 22 Bahman (11 February).

Amnesty International has published a statement, "Unite for Human Rights in Iran on February 11th", declaring:
Since blogs and websites like Twitter and YouTube were virtually the only way the Iranian people could expose the horrific treatment being inflicted on them in the days following the contested Presidential election, we expect that Iranians will turn to the Internet once again to carry their messages. That is why we are asking everyone to show their solidarity online on February 11th – whether it’s on your blog, website, or social networking profile.
Saturday
Feb062010

Iran Document: Karroubi's Open Letter for 22 Bahman (6 February)

UPDATE 2200 GMT: Tonight Karroubi's Etemade Melli party has issued a series of proposals for reconciliation. We have posted them in a separate entry.

From the Flying Carpet Institute, drawing from Karroubi's website Saham News:

In the name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate

Great and proud nation of Iran:

Now that we are on the threshold of 22 Bahman (11 February) and the anniversary of the victory of the glorious Islamic Revolution led by the Imam, I consider it necessary, while commemorating this day and paying my respects to the martyrs who sought independence and freedom mingled with the Islamic Republic, to raise a few points with you, the rightful possessors of this Revolution, system, and country, as a minor servant who had an active presence throughout the ups and downs of this past half century, in the hope that the esteemed officials, especially those who are concerned about the system, would sensibly, justly, fairly, and refraining from the political favor or malice of currents or factions take note.

The Latest from Iran (6 February): Eyes on the Real Prize



In particular, Mehdi Karroubi, due to his age, is no longer in any condition to alter his behaviour for political reasons and to reach worldly post or rank or office. If I were after such a thing, I would have made reclusion my guide and abandoned the wild steed of Iranian politics and spoken no more of the people’s rights and what the realm and the people have suffered and passed my time pleased with the treasury of my memories, at ease and without fanfare and put up for sale my Islamic, Revolutionary, and popular accumulation of fifty years, providing myself with an easy life thereby and be respected by the lords of power.

But such behavior is far from gallantry and unfit for a Muslim and I consider my life and death to be bound up with Islam, Iran, and the people. I know Iran and the people. My greatest pride is that I have been and will remain a servant of God, a son of Iran, and a soldier of the people. Therefore, I not only consider silence and separation from the people and ignoring the national interest to be unjust, but, based on religious values and the lofty aspirations of the people and the Imam as manifested in the Constitution, I have and will continue to devoted myself to the defense of the people’s rights under the sharia and the law and their legitimate freedoms.

This is Mehdi Karroubi’s unshakable pledge to the great people of Iran. I now draw the attention of my dear brothers and sisters to a few important points.

1) We will all participate together, with strength and calm, in the procession for the anniversary of 22 Bahman, which is the commemoration of the manifestation of the noble people of Iran’s religious belief and national determination and a turning point in our country’s proud history. On this day, we will strive to demand the hope-inspiring achievements and aspirations, some of which have either been forgotten or perverted, with patience and firmness, refraining from violence in word or deed.

These legal demands are the people’s right, the promise made by the Islamic Republic in the revolution of 1978 and which today the people in power have concealed in the storage house of power. 22 Bahman, in a word, is the day of the people.

The martyr Ayatollah Modarres had these eloquent words to say about the oath between people and government which arose after the declaration of the next in line to the stewardship of the Prophet and the Immaculate Ones (the Shi'a Imams) who had a direct charge from God:
There is one case such as our times, when that ruler is from the people. In this case, his duty is to execute the instructions which the people give him, and any instruction, from improving the land to safeguarding the people of this nation.…The constitution is an instruction which the nation gives to that individual, and if that ruler does not act in accordance with it, he is an oppressor and a transgressor and must be deposed.

2) We are going to greet this year’s anniversary of 22 Bahman under circumstances in which the twin pillars of the republican and Islamic character of the system have come under severe question. The tenth presidential elections were accompanied by an engineering of the people’s votes. The answer to the people’s simple question in the great silent march of 25 Khordad (15 June), as well as those to come, “Where is my vote?” was met with violent repression, causing the walls of trust between the people and the government to collapse. This created the context in which Imam Khomeini’s inheritance and that which has been bought at the cost of the martyrs’ blood to be faced with its greatest difficulty of the last three decades.

The people knew well and the officials themselves have known that the solution to these difficulties was neither in covering the problem up, nor in torturing with brand and awl. The people should be taken seriously in issues facing the country and demanding their rights, and they should cooperate with the people for the sake of their demands and interests and well-being. Repressing, arresting, and the mass imprisonment of political activists, journalists and students and show trials, executions and harsh punishments and creating a police atmosphere is not an appropriate policy to deal with what has happened and is happening. Giving in to the nation’s demands and recognizing their rights is the way out of the current crisis.

I appeal to the great Sources of Emulation and the distinguished clergy and the centers or religious scholarship and all the credible figures and personalities, social, political, and cultural, as well as the great minds of the people out of concern, to come to the aid of Islam and the people by preparing realistic plans which shun pointless verbal sparring before it is too late. The splendid Sources of Emulation know that what is happening to this country, to this people today, whether we like it or not, is in the name of Islam and Shiism and the clergy. Therefore, everyone must defend Islam’s honor and the people’s rights to the extent of their abilities. Let those in charge, for their part, change their policies and know that neither our silence and retreat nor their threats and intimidation and violence will not solve the problem.

3) These days, the people, these rightful possessors of the revolution, are living in difficult circumstances for numerous reasons, including economic, political, security, and, above all, a lack of concern for their civil rights. Denying these conditions does not change the truth or reality, even though some call it a fitna (sedition) and others call it a crisis or attach other words to it.

One of the country’s biggest difficulties today is precisely the denial of difficulties or being satisfied with attaching different names to them. Their Excellencies not only try to ignore the problem and not accept it, but try to turn the bitter existing realities upside down through unworthy and childish analogies. Therefore, not a step is taken to deal with them. While they are perplexed as to how to administer the country’s simple affairs, they claim to administer the word’s affairs. The rising economic, cultural, political, and moral troubles have caused their allies and those with whom they are in agreement in the Majis to raise their voices and, despite the slogan, “Justice and kindness and service to God’s creatures,” there is galloping inequality and discrimination in society. Discrimination and government corruption have reached the point that, according to the latest international figures, our country has taken the significant fall to the rank of the 168th country in the world in this regard.

4) Regrettably, despite the teachings of Islam, society’s atmosphere is filled with pretention, sycophancy, lying, and widespread flattery. On the one hand there are the vile sycophants and on the other hand worthless extremists throw themselves in to field and restrict it for scholars and the learned and the sensible. The market for insult and slander and abuse has become so hot that the pillars of the system, the revolution and the Imam’s loyal friends, are not safe from it. Fools, with eyes closed and mouths open, in complete security, recklessly sell themselves as eulogists and, by spreading insults and slander, have made things difficult for the pure and the good, who have to take refuge in God because the marketplace is in such an uproar.

I recall that the Imam of the ommat, in order to protect the honor and station of everyone, was so careful with all his being that he not even tolerate well-known figures and the high-ranking being praised and would scream that the soul of man is prideful and rebellious, do not praise me lest I be tempted and believe it.

If we want a principled solution:

• We must pour dust into the mouths of the sycophantic praise singers and the hand and tongue and pen of the worthless violent people must be reformed and controlled and the marketplace of religion-selling and monopolism must be rejected.

• All the articles of the Constitution must be executed fully and the right of the electors and the elected must be taken from the Assembly of Experts of the Leadership so that the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the President obey them. The appalling innovation of the Guardian Council, which puts all Iranians, including prominent and well-known figures, to the blade of ratification must be abolished. The criterion must be nothing other than the nation’s vote and not cherry-picking or engineering the people’s votes on the basis of the tastes of a few elite. I am certain that the noble people of Iran, thanks to the religious atmosphere, will surely set upright, sound, committed, and expert people at the head of affairs.

• The unconditional release of political prisoners.

• An open environment for the press and the recognition of criticism and critics and the restoration of tranquility to the universities.

• The police atmosphere and the environment of terror and fear should be eliminated. This is not an atmosphere conducive to unity and cooperation.

It is a hundred times certain that in this case, there are many demands which the protest current will raise which it is keeping silent over out of its extreme sense of longsuffering. Beware lest those who want to all drag you into destroying the structure, this being what our opponents and the enemies of your peaceful movement want. Going in a violent atmosphere or being seized by an atmosphere which might be blamed on you and being an accomplice to behavior which is against your interests and agreements is what the illogical repressors want. Beware lest the agents of influence or foreigners infiltrate your ranks and damage your religious and moral and national values.

I officially declare that our friends and allies are asking about the measures and the results of the tenth presidential elections and the whereabouts of their votes. They are demanding their rights according to the sharia and the law with an emphasis on Islam and the system and the national interest, and this in silence and calm so that it could be reasonably asked of the agents of the execute, security, the police, and the media, “What have you done so that all this has happened and things have come to such a pass?”

To conclude, it is necessary that the dear people, and particularly the educated classes and the youth, note that what is unfolding in society today called a protest movement is not an all-encompassing ideology which has hard and fast boundaries and on which basis it selects people and takes responsibility for the behavior of all those present in it. This movement is not for the defense of a belief or a particular political or religious aim. Naturally, there are people in it who have various views and beliefs, each of which any one of us might agree or disagree with. The common face of this movement is holding to the right to vote, free elections, a free press, the unconditional freedom of political prisoners, the reform of the work of governing and legislating and respect for the people’s civil rights.

Indubitably, the raising of demands and deviation from the aforementioned goals will provide an excuse for the movement’s violent repression. Therefore I as an aging father submit to the dear youth and as a brother who has seen the world’s ups and downs and whose course is run submit to the old and middle-aged that raising any issues besides the just and legal ones is a deviation from the course and this is what the opponents of this movement and, in some cases, fits into their work with agents of influence.

In the hope of the day that the people of the government and power will bring sense and justice to bear and will prepare what the happiness of the leaders of Islam and the people of Iran require in the light of recognizing the people’s rights.

In concluding our appeal, praise be to God, Lord of the worlds.

Mehdi Karroubi
Feb 6, 2010
Saturday
Feb062010

Afghanistan: Did The Way Forward Come Out of London Conference?

Writing for Foreign Policy, Gilles Dorronsoro looks over the political and military strategy discussed at last week's London Conference between Afghan leaders and "Western" powers and comes away unimpressed:

Washington, Paris and Berlin made their best efforts to keep up appearances during last week's Afghanistan conference here, but the gap between official rhetoric and reality could not have been wider. Participants called for reintegrating members of the Taliban who accept the Afghan constitution, enacting measures against government corruption, and building more regional cooperation.

Afghanistan: America’s Secret Prisons


Yet the coalition is systematically undermining what's left of the Afghan state. The New York Times reports that the Shinwari tribes have agreed to fight the Taliban -- in exchange for about $1 million. What's lesser known and less understood is that Washington didn't even feel obligated to notify the Karzai government of this decision.


Since last summer, the United States has supported all manner of militias in Afghanistan, creating fragmentation and a dangerous degree of competition in the security sphere. Critics rightly observe that this is a formula for an even weaker government in Kabul. In a number of cases, the U.S. is dealing directly with armed groups that are beyond the control of the central government,including the group that was reportedly responsible for the killing of the Kandahar police chief in 2009.

In restive provinces like Helmand and Kandahar, rallying the foot soldiers of the insurgency is simply never going to work, because they are fighting in defense of values -- such as Islam, and freedom from foreign occupation -- that they see under attack. Even if the coalition achieves limited tactical successes, the Taliban will quickly replace the fighters it loses, and it can easily target the "traitors." These coalition tactics are not new and have never worked before. Why does the White House think they'll work now, with the insurgency stronger than ever?

Washington's gravest error, however, is its manifest lack of interest in shoring up the Afghan central government. Whatever the official word about fighting corruption, the international coalition is bypassing Kabul in favor of local strong-men, on whom it is growing more and more dependent for protection and logistics, especially in the south. Worse, the population rejects the militias, which are often brutal toward civilians, and do little to increase support for Karzai or the coalition.

The so-called "tribal policy" has been tried before in the eastern provinces, with no results, between 2006 and 2008, when the Taliban were much weaker than they are today. Even inside the Afghan legal system, the coalition is choosing its partners at a local level, skirting the political center. NATO's Provincial Reconstruction Teams act with total independence from Kabul, which is often not even informed of their actions.

The big problem the London conference failed to tackle is the Karzai government's lack of credibility with the Afghan people, especially since the flawed election of August 2009. Working with essentially the same networks, and more and more alienated from Washington -- which has repeatedly and unceremoniously criticized him in public -- Karzai will not deliver on his political reforms.

And the return of the old Uzbek warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum, whom the coalition opposes but who supported Karzai in the latest election, signals that Karzai will become even more independent from Washington. As Generals David Petraeus and Stanley McChrystal have said, the U.S. cannot shoot its way to victory in Afghanistan, so with no prospect of building Afghan institutions for the foreseeable future, the coalition has less of an exit strategy each day.

The real game now is negotiating with the Taliban leadership in Quetta. Karzai and the Afghan government are trying to open some negotiations with the head of the Afghan Taliban Mullah Omar, as is the U.N., through special representative Kai Eide. The U.S. should also pursue direct negotiations, as it has very direct interests in a larger agreement with the Taliban -- namely, a guarantee that al Qaeda does not return to Afghanistan. If the U.S. cannot reach such a resolution, who else will?

The London conference, sadly, gave little confidence that NATO is moving any closer to its objectives in Afghanistan. A few days before leaders met here, we learned that the Afghan National Army and Police forces will be substantially increased: from 97,000 to 171,000, and 94,000 to 160,000, respectively, by the end of 2011. The security of a growing number of provinces will also come under the responsibility of the Afghan army after 2011. It all sounds nice on paper, but these policies are not remotely realistic, and as Anand Gopal reported in the Christian Science Monitor in April 2009, they have all been tried and found wanting already.

The number of ANA troops who are capable of combat is about 60,000, and turnover is reported to be as high as 25 percent per year. Given the insufficient number of Western military trainers, NATO will almost certainly miss its target numbers for the ANA. The key problem is training officers, which requires a lot of time the coalition doesn't have. And it is extremely difficult to build an army when the structures of the state are crumbling around it on all sides.

U.S. strategy in Afghanistan has become almost bewilderingly self-destructive. The White House has constantly slapped Hamid Karzai in public, demanding that he make reforms that would be difficult at the best of times, while performing an end run around him that diminishes his standing even further.

At this rate, when it withdraws, Washington may leave nothing behind in Afghanistan but warring factions -- a mess not unlike the one that precipitated the Taliban's rise to power in the first place.
Saturday
Feb062010

Iran: Quick! Look Over There! The Nuclear Distraction

Five days before 22 Bahman, the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, but it appears the Ahmadinejad Government would prefer that folks look away.

Friday Prayers in Tehran, the last before the marches of 11 February, were very quiet, with the least-known of the prayer leaders (Emami Kashani) giving a relatively muted statement. And this morning, the State line is all Nukes, Nukes, Nukes.


CNN declares in excitement that Iranian Foreign Manouchehr Mottaki said Friday at an international security conference in Germany, "The amount of [Iran's] uranium [to be swapped abroad for higher-enriched uranium] is negotiable. But I am confident that a solution can be found." The New York Times trots alongside with more from Mottaki, “We are approaching a final agreement that can be accepted by all parties. I personally believe we have created conducive ground for such an exchange in the not very distant future."

This is not just a case of the Western media bigging-up a story and missing what is happening inside Iran. CNN took its lead from Press TV, which repeats on its website that Mottaki told the Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, in a set-piece late-night meeting, "The most important point is the political will. Personally I feel this will is there." Equally important, Press TV has a second story, boosting Bildt's encouragement to Tehran to deal, "Go to the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency]. "Schedule a meeting as soon as possible according to what was agreed (at the Geneva meeting with the "5+1" powers) on October 1."

The Ahmadinejad Government's move is significant --- and coordinated --- enough for the Islamic Republic News Agency to get a quick story out on its English-language website (usually IRNA takes at least 24 hours to recycle stories from its Persian homepage), "Iranian FM upbeat on reaching a nuclear fuel swap deal."