The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (16 January)

Later Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (17 January)
Latest post: Israeli Newspaper Details Israel’s Use of Illegal Weapons in Gaza
Latest post: Gaza --- It’s Not Necessarily All About Tehran

Late evening update (2 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): Relatively quiet on all fronts the last few hours. A hectic diplomatic day but a comparatively quiet military day, as Israeli troops battled with "at least 20 armed gunmen" Friday and five civilians were wounded when 15 rockets were fired into southern Israel.

Everyone is drawing breath, but it will pick up in several hours. Saturday is the day that Israel makes its move and puts all other actors on the spot, as the Cabinet declares a unilateral ceasefire. It is a giant snub to "world opinion", saying that Tel Aviv doesn't need an international agreement to get its political and military objectives. Gaza will still be blockaded, Israel will remain freedom of action to send military forces in whenever it wants, and Hamas will go unrecognised.

The responses of other countries and groups to this move will be critical. Is Egypt's Hosni Mubarak really prepared to be tied at the hip to Israel, in pursuit of the overthrow of Hamas, even though it may damage Cairo's position in the Arab world and even threaten internal instability? Will Saudi Arabia continue to stall on meaningful cease-fire efforts or, in light of growing internal concern with the Government position, will it shift towards other Gulf States who are demanding support of Hamas and unequivocal condemnation of Israel? Can Syria and Iran press their diplomatic initiative in forging a new bloc, and can Khaled Meshaall benefit?

And what in the world is Barack Obama doing? Did his people know of the Israeli plans, given Tzipi Livni's presence in Washington today, and tacitly approve them? Or have they sat so far back that they are trailing behind these developments?

No answers, just a lot of questions. But my speculation is that tomorrow will send a re-alignment of loyalties and objectives that ensures the political battle over Gaza enters a new phase.



10:15 p.m. Al Jazeera English declares Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal as "big diplomatic victor" with appearance at Qatar summit, especially with refusal of Palestianian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas to attend.

9:45 p.m. A piece of significant news lost in the diplomatic shuffle: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for Israel to be blocked from the United Nations today.

Erdogan's declaration is not only a clear sign of the deterioration in the historically close Turkish-Israeli relationship. It is also a marker of Ankara's move towards Syria and Iran as the battlelines shape up amongst Arab states over the Gaza conflict and its aftermath.

8:30 p.m. Israel finally plays its hand: tomorrow, the Cabinet will hold a rare meeting on the Sabbath so it can vote on a unilateral ceasefire. This means Tel Aviv could declare "victory" without having to recognise Hamas. Instead of reaching a confirmed agreement on control of Gaza's borders, Israel will rely on arrangements with the United States --- including today's memorandum of understanding to block arms shipments to Hamas --- and Egypt to achieve its objectives.

This means that there may be no further military action, but there is no meaningful political settlement. The economic blockade will remain. Israel and Egypt, hoping for support from Washington, will continue to work for the re-installation of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza. Indeed, it has been already been announced that Egypt is "considering whether to organize a summit in the near future between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas".

Since the issue is no longer whether Hamas agrees to a ceasefire, attention will turn to whether the Obama Administration supports this new Israeli manoeuvre to isolate and undermine Hamas. Equally important, the split in the Arab world may be exposed. Which way will Arab countries move? Will they support an Egypt-Israel alliance or will they take a firm line against Tel Aviv and in support of the Gazan leadership?

6:30 p.m. CNN correspondent Ben Wedeman finally gets into southern Gaza: how much local support do you think there will be for arrangements stage-managed by Cairo and Washington?

We toured an area near the border with Egypt where tunnels had been dug to get supplies into Gaza. There we saw dozens and dozens of houses completely destroyed, huge craters everywhere.

Earlier, when we caught the last bus from Egypt into Gaza, we spoke to Palestinian passengers, most of whom said they had been arrested in Egypt and abused by police before being deported. Their bitterness toward Egypt, particularly its president, Hosni Mubarak, and other Arab leaders over their perceived failure to provide support was echoed among others we spoke to.

This was matched by anger toward the United States, because most people know it supplies Israel with the warplanes bombarding them.

5:42 p.m. US and Israel sign deal to curb arms smuggling to Hamas, with Condoleezza Rice repeating the mantra that it will contribute to a "durable ceasefire". Details still not available, but Ha'aretz reports that it will include "patrols of the Persian Gulf, Sudan, and neighboring states". Diplomats said earlier that the arrangement included greater intelligence cooperation, and US technical and logistical assistance for border monitors. No US personnel will be involved on land with the border monitoring in either Gaza or Egypt.

Forgive me, but this doesn't sound like a vital component of a cease-fire agreement. Instead, it looks like US and Israel are trying to write a blank cheque to pick off "suspect" Iranian ships in international waters and to run covert and military operations in areas like Sudan.

5:40 p.m. Important clarification: Saudi Arabia did not attend today's meeting in Qatar.

5:20 p.m. Recapping on developments from the meeting in Qatar. Syrian President Bashir al-Assad has made the first big move, asking all Arab countries to cut "all direct and indirect" ties with Israel. Immediate effect is to suspend the "indirect peace negotiations" between Syria and Israel, but this is also Damascus's gambit to lead an Arab bloc against Tel Aviv and Cairo.

Al-Assad's move reinforced Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal's call for an isolation of Israel, and Qatar has now suspended relations with Tel Aviv.

5 p.m. More on the Israeli position on a cease-fire. Reuters, like Al Jazeera English, reports that Israel is pushing for a permanent ceasefire but adds our interpretation that Israel is insisting "Hamas must accept the return of Western-backed President Mahmoud Abbas's Palestinian Authority to Gaza's border crossings".

Meanwhile, one Palestinian reported killed and several wounded by Israeli forces during protest in Hebron in the West Bank. Demonstrations took place in towns despite Israeli attempts to close off the West Bank for 48 hours.

4:35 p.m. Well, well. The Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz has broken ranks to ask, "Is Israel using illegal weapons in its offensive on Gaza?" The story by Amira Haas uses reports and witnesses to answer Yes with the level of detail beyond that in American and British reports. Further information is in a separate post.



4:25 p.m. Interesting twist on the diplomatic front: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Moscow is "sending...signals to representatives of Hamas, and those states which have influence on Hamas", i.e. Iran and Syria, to support the Egyptian proposals.

Another sign that the Syrian and Iranian Governments and in particular Syrian leader Bashir al-Assad are big winners in this crisis....

4:15 p.m. A quick P.S. from "Rafah Kid": "The bulldozers are back on top of us again."

4 p.m. While trying to hold the line diplomatically, Israel is pursuing the other part of its plan to take Hamas out of power: "decapitation".

The Israelis are continuing their attempts to assassinate Hamas leaders. Having killed Saed Siam on Thursday but failed to "liquidate", as the US used to call it, military leader Mahmud az-Zahar, Tel Aviv has a partial short-term success. The question remains, however: how many Hamas leaders would have to be slain before the movement collapsed? I think the number is far more than Israel can achieve in the window before a cease-fire has to be agreed.

2 p.m. No significant updates on the Israeli position from talks in Cairo and later in Washington. For the moment, attention is on a sideshow --- important not for immediate Gaza situation but for Arab and Middle Eastern politics --- in Qatar. In addition to the Gulf States and Iran, Hamas and the Palestinian groups Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) are present.

There is a clear possibility here, if the Gaza crisis continues, of a split in the Arab states and regional powers between those trying to isolate Hamas (notably Egypt and Saudi Arabia) and those backing the organisation and groups beyond Fatah (not only Syria but also Iran and Turkey).

12:20 p.m. "Rafah Kid", taking advantage of a few hours of electricity, has posted a short blog and photos from Rafah in southern Gaza.

12:15 p.m. Joshua Landis, in addition to some incisive comments on future US policy towards Syria, gets to the point on the next President and Israel/Palestine:

Obama’s support for Israel’s destruction of Hamas is not promising. If the US supports Israel’s continued efforts to hunt down Hamas’ leaders and kill them, the situation will be bleak. If Hamas is effectively decapitated, diplomacy will have little future for the Palestinians.

12:10 p.m. Bit of a twist that we had missed on the meeting of some Arab countries in Qatar: Egypt won't be there but Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad will be making an appearance. The dynamics, especially between Iran and Saudi Arabia, are worth watching.

11:45 a.m. More notable is Ban's effusive praise of the PA for its achievements over the last three years. He makes clears that "they are the democratically elected leadership" of Palestine --- a bit curious in light of the 2006 elections in Gaza --- as he presses his call for "the unity of the Palestinians....Only you, the Palestinians, can do this."

Ban either has no comprehension of the complexities in Gazan politics and society, or he is happily marching along with the Israel-US blueprint for PA at the head of Gaza as well as the West Bank. I'm starting to believe the former.

11:40 a.m. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon now speaking at press conference with Palestinian Authority leader (depeand present/former (depending on your point of view) West Bank Prime Minister Salam Fayyad. He calls for a "sustainable" ceasefire --- "there is no time to lose" --- but thinks that an agreement is "very close".

Nothing too stunning there, especially in substance.

11:05 a.m. Al Jazeera's Mouin Rabbani believes two issues in cease-fire talks: Israel demand for permanent cessation, which Hamas rejects without permanent end to Israeli occupation of Gaza and West Bank, and Israel desire for international monitors on Egyptian side of border, which Cairo views as infringement on its sovereignty.

11 a.m. Israeli shelling continues as Friday prayers begin. Large funeral procession expected for Hamas leader Saed Siam.

10:16 a.m. Israel continues to stall on the diplomatic front while keeping military options open: Gaza offensive could be entering its "final act" but the extent of operations and length of time of that act kept open.

10:15 a.m. Oh, yes, the Gulf Cooperation Council states meet in Qatar today to discuss Gaza. There will be little of direct effect upon the conflict, especially since Egypt is pointedly staying away from the meeting. More intriguing will be inter-Arab politics, reading for example the position that Saudi Arabia takes.

9:50 a.m. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin: Gaza death toll 1133 with 5200 injured.

9:30 a.m. Our colleagues at "Alive in Gaza" have posted another audio interview with photojournalist Sameh Habeeb from Gaza City: "Drones in the Air".

9:15 a.m. Palestinian Statistics Bureau: Current conflict has cost the Gazan conflict $1.4 billion.

Morning update (8:45 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): The overnight development is on the diplomatic front. It appears that Israel's manoeuvre in the cease-fire negotiations will be an attempt to get an American presence in the international force monitoring Gaza's borders and tunnels. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni travels to Washington today and is reported to be seeking US guarantees. On Thursday, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's office put out the line that US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice had told Olmert that "the United States would be prepared to assist in solving the issue of smuggling". Meanwhile, Ministry of Defence official Amos Gilad returns to Cairo.

Israel says it struck more than 40 Gazan targets overnight, including two Hamas outposts. Its killing of key Hamas official Saed Siam yesterday continues to resonate: according to Al Jazeera, Fatah officials are privately expressing satisfaction over Siam's death.

Gazan death toll is now more than 1110. Israeli death toll remains at 13.

There continues to be a battle in the media between Israel's projection of its military success and the controversy over its shelling of civilian targets, including its use of white phosphorous. Speaking about the Israeli attack on the United Nations compound, UN official John Ging applied the "duck test" (if it walks likes a duck, quacks like a duck, etc.): ""It looks like phosphorus, it smells like phosphorus and it's burning like phosphorus. That's why I'm calling it phosphorus."

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (15 January)

Latest Post: Israeli Government Document Says Hamas Did Not Fire Rockets From June to November 2008

12:30 a.m. We predicted last night that it would be a momentous 24 hours. It was, but not on the diplomatic front, where Israel --- confident that the Arab world was dithering, that Egypt would not go too far in conceding to Hamas, and that the US is still writing a blank cheque --- stalled. Instead, the deadly action was military, as the world woke up to Israel's gradual achievement of "Phase 3".

The Israeli invasion of Gaza City started badly on the public-relations front, as they shelled hospitals, high-rises (including one housing media organisations), and the UN compound and set thousands of residents to flight. The advance faced limited resistance from Hamas fighters, however, and Tel Aviv got a major coup --- at home and we'll see how much abroad --- when its target assassination strategy finally worked with the slaying of Hamas officials, including former Minister of the Interior Saed Siam.

Yet all this merely brings round our question from last night: is tomorrow the day when the Israeli Government finally decides that it will moves toward a cease-fire or will it press for even better terms by squeezing the population of Gaza City, Rafah, etc. further?

Good night and peace to all.



11:45 p.m. Hamas has confirmed the death of former Interior Minister Saed Siam, killed in an Israeli airstrike with five others.

The report of the death of Hamas military leader Mahmud al-Zahar was in error, confusing two incidents. He was not at Siam's house; instead, Israeli forces surround al-Zahar's home, killing five bodyguards but failing to locate him.

10:00 p.m. Ban Ki-Moon, capping off a fantastic day for United Nations diplomacy, says that it may take a 'few more days' to work out the technical details of a Gaza ceasefire. Translation: the issue of who monitors the borders, and thus when they open, is a major sticking point.

9:05 p.m. Ministry of Defense official Amos Gilad has returned from Cairo and talking to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. I suspect that means no significant announcement until the Gilad discussions are presented to Israeli Security Cabinet on Friday.

8:45 p.m. Hamas tried to re-seize the diplomatic initiative. Its officials have told Egypt that it will agree to a year-long ceasefire if Israel opens the borders immediately and withdraws its forces in seven days.

It's a clever move, if it commands attention. There is no way that Israel will agree to opened borders without an arrangement that it likes on monitoring (which probably means some involvement/oversight by Israeli forces). It is likely to respond, with the killings of Hamas officials this evening, that the Gazan organisation is only reacting from weakness, and there is a good chance that Israeli officials would like to press their military advantage for a few more days.

So Hamas may be able to portray themselves as the party seeking peace, especially if outrage over Israeli hitting of civilian targets, such as hospitals and the UN compounds, overrides the focus on the military "success" of the targeted assassinations. For that to happen, however, it needs support from somewhere --- Arab states, the United Nations, maybe a European leader. That, however, is unlikely in the next few days unless there is a general demand, in the media and in public opinion, for a cessation of the violence.

8:05 p.m. Al Jazeera says former (not present) Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam, his brother, and son killed with three others in Israeli airstrike. It does not mention the death of Mahmoud Watfah.

7:45 p.m. Ha'aretz: Hamas military leader Mahmoud Watfah also killed in airstrike on Interior Minister's house.

7:25 p.m Well, this buys Israel some time, deflecting from the row over the shelling of the UN compound, the injuring of journalists in the attack on the Sharooq Tower, the rising civilian death toll, the tangled diplomatic talks....

Al Aqsa TV confirms the death of Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam in an Israeli airstrike.

7:05 p.m. Israel claims to have killed Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam and his brother in an attack on his house.

6:15 p.m. The report of Israeli response has come from Egyptian television and now from a senior Egyptian diplomat to Agence France Presse. Still no coverage in US or British media.

5:55 p.m. News Alert: It is being reported that Israel has given a "totally favourable response" to the Egyptian proposals for a cease-fire. This follows news that US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has told Israeli Prime Minister that the US will sign an agreement to measures to prevent the rearming of Hamas.

CNN International and Al Jazeera English, which is carrying the emergency session of the United Nations General Assembly, have yet to mention the supposed breakthrough.

5:40 p.m. Question of the Day comes from UN official Chris Gunness: ""If there were militants in our compound, why weren't we told?"

5:20 p.m. CNN's website has a summary of the near-farcical diplomatic fiddling, while Gaza burns, by Arab nations. Anas Qtiesh's commentary, "Arab Leaders Can't Come Together, Not Even into a Room", is well worth a read.

4:20 p.m. Forgive me, but here we go again: a senior Israeli officers say the UN compound was shelled, with artillery and white phosphorous, fter Israeli forces came under fire from militants. UN official John Ging has denied there was any shooting from the compound.

3:30 p.m. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, breaking from the US, has condemned Israel attack on UN facilities "unacceptable" and called for immediate cease-fire.

3 p.m. Interesting journalistic approach from Al Jazeera: It has put a "victim's wall" listing the names and ages of the 210 children killed in the Gaza conflict that it has identified so far.

Meanwhile, Israeli spokesman Mark Regev announces that 20 journalists will be allowed into Gaza, but they must be embedded with Israeli Army "for their security". Credit to the CNN correspondent who just scoffed at this, since journalists would have to submit all their reports to the Army for approval.

2:50 p.m. Oops, here is why that "Fatah In, Hamas Out" strategy might not work. Isabel Kerchner in The New York Times:

Israel hoped that the war in Gaza would not only cripple Hamas, but eventually strengthen its secular rival, the Palestinian Authority, and even allow it to claw its way back into Gaza.

But with each day, the authority, its leader, Mahmoud Abbas, and its leading party, Fatah, seem increasingly beleaguered and marginalized, even in the Palestinian cities of the West Bank, which they control. Protesters accuse Mr. Abbas of not doing enough to stop the carnage in Gaza — indeed, his own police officers have used clubs and tear gas against those same protesters.

2:35 p.m. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad is holding a press conference, lambasting Israel and the United Nations.

2:05 p.m. We've put up a separate post on the significance of the press conference: "Fatah In, Hamas Out", but on a personal note:

In my opinion, "I've just witnessed a disgrace." If there was any hope in the diplomatic process after the Egypt-Hamas talks, it has been sabotaged by Livni's declaration of a "regime change" strategy in Gaza. And I cannot believe that a UN Secretary-General, only hours after his own people and operations were damaged --- perhaps irrevocably --- in Gaza would not only sit there and take the blows but endorse Tel Aviv's approach.

1:45 p.m. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, following Ban Ki-Moon's statement, laid the strategy on the line for Hamas out, Fatah in:

""Gaza has been controlled by terrorist organization that doesn't fight for the aspirations of the Palestinian people. It is not part of the peace process....We  need to achieve a peace process with the pragmatic leadership, the legitimate Palestinian Government (her emphasis) and simultaneously to address terror, to fight terrorism, to continue the de-legitimisation of Hamas."

1:43 p.m. About those Israeli attacks on UN facilities and personnel this morning; Ban Ki-Moon says he "expressed strong protest and outrage" and demanded full explanation. He then had telephone talk with Israeli Defense Ehud Barak, who said attacks were "grave mistake" and assured "that extra attention would be paid to UN facilities and staff" in future.

Well, that's all right,then.

1:40 p.m. Ban Ki-Moon says he discussed humanitarian situation with Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. He says UN working with Israel "to alleviate the crisis as much as possible": "I appreciate the Israeli Government's measures to establish a Humanitarian Operations Center and to provide the necessary humanitarian assistance."

1:30 p.m. Important development: United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has just issued his press statement after meeting with Israeli leaders. He calls for immediate cease-fire with reopening of borders, halt to rockets and resupply to Hamas, and release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. And...

"Gaza is reunited with West Bank under one legitimate Palestinian Authority".

Which means the political strategy of bringing Fatah back to Gaza --- and not recognising Hamas --- continues.

1:16 p.m. Al Jazeera reports that Israeli forces have surrounded the home of Hamas co-founder Mahmud az-Zahar.

1:15 p.m. Nice symbolic touch: someone has placed two Israeli flags in front of the media reporting from the Israel-Gaza border.

1:05 p.m. Resident of Gaza City high-rise occupied by Israeli soldiers (speaking to Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin): women and children fled, Israeli troops have detained the men in lower floors of the building.

12:25 p.m. UN official John Ging: UN has not suspended operations but Gaza City headquarters is now cut off: "This is a test of our humanity. It's also a test of our ability to enforce legality and just be by-standers."

Ging says Red Cross building in Gaza City has been hit by Israeli fire. (Latest info: apparently it is Red Crescent hospital building which has been struck.)

12:20 p.m. UN official Chris Gunness: Because the fire in the UN compound is from three white phosphorous shells, it cannot be "put out by conventional means."

12:15 p.m. Israel radio with doctor in Tal al-Hawa hospital: Building hit by Israeli tank shell (not bomb). Fuel tank outside hospital struck, causing large fire.

12:10 p.m. Al Jazeera: Tal al-Hawa hospital in Gaza City hit by Israel bomb with 500 people inside.

12 noon: Smoke billowing from UN aid warehouse, which is on fire after a direct hit from at least three Israeli shells.

11:37 a.m. Shourooq Tower, which house many media organisations in #Gaza, hit by Israeli shelling.

11:35 a.m. Fantastic line from Al Jazeera analyst Mouin Rabbani: "There's a growing feeling in the region that, while Muslims pray towards Mecca, some of their leaders are in fact praying in the direction of the White House."

11:20 a.m. Orwell strikes: As it shells Gaza City and Rafah and escalates ground operations, Israel announces a four-hour "humanitarian" respite for today, even though UN says any aid delivery is impossible.

11:15 a.m. Putting reports together on fighting in Tal al-Hawa: Israeli tanks shelled three high-rise buildings before Israeli soldiers occupied them. Unclear whether residents of buildings fled before or after the tank fire.

11:01 a.m. CNN follows Al Jazeera reports of "main UN aid compound" in Gaza hit by Israeli fire. UN official John Ging says compound hit by artillery and white phosphorous, injuring three UN workers.

11:00 a.m. Thirteen rockets fired this morning into southern Israel.

10:55 a.m. Projection: Israeli forces are making current advance into parts of Gaza City to pursue diplomatic negotiations from a "position of strength".

10:50 a.m. Live on Al Jazeera: Intensive Israeli attack in Tal al-Hawa, in the southern part of Gaza City, with Israeli soldiers taking up positions in high-rise buildings. Reports of similar operations in eastern Gaza City. Thousands of resident fleeing.

This is a significant escalation in operations: in recent days, Israeli forces have moved forward at night, not during the day.

10:45 a.m. Juan Cole, excellent as always, offers an incisive examination of the humanitarian situation to consider whether Israel is a "rogue state".

10:30 a.m. In case you missed it: Israel turned back an aid boat carrying doctors, medical supplies, and journalists. The Israeli naval force surrounded the boat and threatened to fire unless it returned to Cyprus.

9:45 a.m. Further to our 9 a.m. update "Decision Day?": The Israeli shift in position, sending officials to Cairo and Washington for talks, follows a mini-climbdown by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who ended his boycott of Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak and met them yesterday.

9:30 a.m. Split amongst Arab States: Following our update yesterday on Saudi Arabia proposing a meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council as an alternative to an Arab League emergency meeting, Egypt is suggesting a meeting on Sunday just before an Arab economic summit in Kuwait.

At least in the short term, two Arab coalitions have emerged: one led by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who are playing for time because of their dislike of Hamas, and one led by Syria (supported by non-Arab countries such as Iran and Turkey), who want a more assertive political intervention. Whether this has long-term significance will be an important issue, even after the supposed end of hostilities in Gaza.

9:15 a.m. Crushing Hamas? A revealing story, if you can get under the surface, on BBC radio's Today programme (at 0715). An Israeli military spokesman says that about 300 Hamas fighters have died since the Israeli ground invasion, in addition to a "few hundred" killed in the first week of the aerial assault.

The Israeli figure, however, includes Gazan policemen, an estimated 170 of whom have died. Removing that number, the outcome is that Israel after three weeks has killed at most 430 Hamas fighters. That is out of a (conservatively) estimated Hamas force of 15,000.

9:01 a.m. United Nations official Chris Gunness says that UN personnel cannot get to warehouses to distribute aid because of "red-hot shrapnel" lying around the sites.

9 a.m. Despite the diplomatic moves, Israel not only continued its bombardment overnight but also "moved into crowded parts" of Gaza City. A mosque was amongst the targets hit, while a targeted assassination attempt hit the home of a Hamas official, missing him but killing three others.

The Gazan death toll is now 1033 --- more than a third are children. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin reports that more than 80,000 Gazans have been displaced.

Morning Update (9 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): Decision Day? Three days late, Israel is sending Ministry of Defense official Amos Gilad to Cairo. The BBC is reporting that Tel Aviv is also sending a senior Foreign Ministry official to the US. Both developments indicate that the Israeli Government is ready to enter negotiations on the terms of a possible cease-fire.

This follows the news on Wednesday that Hamas has put forward its response to Egyptian proposals in an attempt to find a settlement. That said, there are still huge sticking points. Hamas is demanding both that Israel end the blockade and that it have no personnel in the force monitoring the borders. Israel will insist not only on an end to rocket fire but will try and retain the right to strike Gaza if even one launch is made.

And this is only in the short-term, of course. The wider issue is a two-fold question of recognition: does Hamas recognise Israel as a state? And does Israel recognise Hamas as the legitimate political leadership of Gaza?

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (14 Jan --- Evening)

Later Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (15 January)
Earlier Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (14 January)

1 a.m. Israeli shell hits car carrying senior UN officials, wounding driver.

12:45 a.m. Clarification on the state of play over the Cairo proposals. Hamas says it has presented a "detailed vision" on implementation of a cease-fire, which Egypt will now relay to Israel. Hamas' conditions include guarantees that Israel will lift the blockade on Gaza, but significantly Hamas is prepared to accept European and Turkish monitors of Gaza border "along with the Palestinian Authority's security forces and those of the government in Gaza". (In other words, Palestinian Authority can have a role as long as there are no Israeli monitors.)

Hamas sources say that if Israel accepts the Egyptian proposals, "We will be ready to start (the ceasefire) immediately."



12:30 a.m. Our colleagues at Alive in Gaza have posted a second audio dispatch from Gaza City by photojournalist Sameh Habeeb.

12 midnight: Saudi Arabia has called for an emergency summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. This is not as much a diplomatic initiative as a blocking move, forestalling calls for a full Arab League summit.

Evening update (11:30 p.m. Israel/Gaza time): The diplomatic flutter of a possible Hamas agreement to Egyptian proposals appears to have been premature, as "news" has reverted back to a summary of United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon's trip to the Middle East.

The near-irrelevance of that mission has been highlighted by the news that, after the talks in Egypt today, Ban will visit Israel, Jordan, and Syria...but not Hamas. So the facade of negotiations, in which one side can only be approached by Cairo, continues.

Gazan death toll is now about 1017 with almost 5000 injured. Al Jazeera correspondent Ayman Moyheldin says that, while fewer Gazans killed on Wednesday, residents faced "complete fear and terror....For those who venture out [for food] ... they know that anytime they leave their house it could be the last time."

Israeli death toll is 13, of whom 10 are soldiers.

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (13 January)

Latest Post: Israel Requests, Bush Responds: The US Abstention on the UN Cease-Fire Resolution
Latest post: The "Violent Semi-Peace" in Iraq

5:10 p.m. A piece of critical information from Al Jazeera: Israeli Ministry of Defense official Amos Gilad still has not gone to Cairo --- he was supposed to be there Monday morning. Analysis is that Israel is sitting back, waiting for Egypt to get agreement from Hamas on conditions that Israel wants on monitoring of the border and tunnels.

Al Jazeera analyst: "Hamas is being asked to raise the white flag."

5:05 p.m. Al Jazeera live shots of Israeli attack helicopters as operations continue around Gaza City and battles in the south of Gaza, with Israel targeting tunnel network. Al Jazeera correspondents project "Phase 3" within 24-48 hours.



4:50 p.m. How to Sit on A Fence: At her confirmation hearings, Secretary of State-elect Hillary Clinton --- in her first comments on the Gaza crisis --- says US must back Israeli security needs but acknowledge Palestinian aspirations.

4:30 p.m. A curious lull in news: CNN website uses the dramatic headline "Israel tanks roll into Gaza City" but fighting still appears to be on periphery of the city. Given pattern of recent days, it will be after dusk when Israel presses forward.

4 p.m. Red Cross president Jakob Kellenberger statement after visit to al Shifa hospital: "It hurts a lot when you've seen what I've just seen....A medical mission in such a conflict has to be perfected. These people cannot wait for days or even hours to be evacuated."

3:15 p.m. Speaking to Al Jazeera, Hamas official Ghazi Hamid expresses optimism about developments in Egypt-Hamas talks in Cairo.

3 p.m. The medical crisis escalates, despite the supposed "humanitarian corridors": 28 clinics, almost half of Gaza's total, are closed, hospitals have only 6-8 hours of electricity each day, and ambulances can't move for fear of being fired upon

2:15 p.m. The head of the Red Cross has arrived for three days of talks with Israeli and Palestinian officials, including a visit to al Shifa hospital.

1:55 p.m. Al Mezan Center for Human Rights: "At least 85% of the casualties [are] civilian non-combatants." The Center estimates up to 200,000 Gazans, out of a population of 1.5 millions, have been forced out of their homes.

1:40 p.m. Gazan resident Fares Akram in The Independent:

We don't even see Hamas police in the streets. It isn't that they've gone underground, but they are wearing civilian clothes and they don't dare to show their weapons, or drive their blue police cars which are all still parked in the same places they were in when this started.

Not that there is any law and order to enforce. The prisons have been emptied by the bombing and some have taken advantage of the chaos to carry out vengeance killings or to settle clan feuds.

1:35 p.m. Medical clinics run by Christian Aid and the Catholic organisation Caritas were destroyed in Israeli airstrikes on Monday. Meanwhile, less than 200 of the 1200 hospital beds in Egypt reserved for Gazan victims have been filled.

1:15 p.m. Mahmoud Abbas has resurfaced, accusing Israel of trying out to "wipe out" the Palestinian people by refusing to cease-fire in Gaza

11:40 a.m. Sharp and pertinent observation from Al Jazeera analyst: Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas has now absented himself from the process and "may well pay the political price" when conflict is over.

11:25 a.m. Two Arab blocs, with total of seven members in Knesset, banned from standing in forthcoming Israeli elections.

11:20 a.m. Division in Israeli Cabinet: Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni prefers unilateral Israeli declaration when "objectives are achieved"; Defense Minister Ehud Barak prefers cease-fire; Prime Minsiter Ehud Olmert pressing for more military operations.

11:10 a.m. Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan on Al Jazeera: Hamas representatives in Cairo "have the authority and can make their conclusions" to reach an agreement. Hamas conditions: no acceptance of international forces in Gaza, Israeli withdrawal, full opening of border crossings.

11:00 a.m. Question to Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin: "Are there any quiet, safe places in Gaza now?" Moyheldin: "The short answer to no. There simply are no safe places in Gaza."

11 a.m. Reports of Israeli soldiers wounded, one critically, entering "booby-trapped house".

10:30 a.m. From Mohammed, a blogger in Gaza, about the fighting south of Gaza City:

i noticed a message from areej, my uncle mohammads wifes: the tanks have reached us, theres smoke in the house, please pray for us.

i called her. i could hear explosions just outside, and machine gun fire. just before 2 am, israeli tanks and special forces had entered an area just outside tal al-hawa, near the community college. they'd come up against surprisingly touigh and violent resistance. tanks firing randomly into neighbrhoods. white phosphorous munitions used to cover an aparent retreat. the entire apartment is filled with white smoke, the kids are up, screaming. there seems to be a definite retreat, but they're expecting the worst. they say to please keep praying for their safety and for the resistance. they dont know if they will live.

9:50 a.m. Looks like --- by skill or fortune --- our analysis is on the mark: Ha'aretz reports, "Olmert seeks push in Cairo talks before Gaza op enters third stage".

What we didn't know, however, is that Ministry of Defense official Amos Gilad didn't make it to Cairo on Monday. However, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak met last night, and Olmert then told a series of foreign leaders that the talks with Egypt would be proceeding.

On a separate track, Hamas leaders arrived in Cairo last night for their own discussions.

Morning update (9:40 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): More of the same on military front, as Israel's bombardment continues and its forces ring Gaza City. Israeli tanks are edging into the city from the northwest and the northeast, approaching Hamas' preventative security building. Heavy fighting in Tal al-Awa, south of the city. In the south, fighting east of Khan Younis; Ayman Moyheldin of Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli bombardment has reduced Rafah "to rubble".

Gazan death toll is now 919; 40 percent of dead are women and children. Israeli death toll is 13, of whom 10 are soldiers.

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12:10 a.m. With a lull in activity, we're going for some downtime. We half-expected a major Israeli ground attack before dawn but it appears that the Israeli Cabinet may still be undecided about pushing into Gazan cities.

Meanwhile, it's safe --- and sad --- to say that all is stalled on the political front. This has settled into a frustrating circle: none of the major players wants to appear to make a concession to Hamas (since most of those players want to get rid of the organisation) and, without a concession such as the opening of border crossings, Hamas will not negotiate for a cease-fire.



11:25 p.m. Israeli military says seven soldiers "lightly wounded" on Saturday. More than 60 targets hit in airstrikes. Suicide bomber killed in northern Gaza.

Four members of same family killed by Israeli tank shell near Beit Lahiya.

10:15 p.m. Israeli bombing raids in northeastern Gaza. Meanwhile, Israeli "information" services brings out their secret weapon: "internationally-renowned singer Noa", who speaks for peace to "Palestinian brothers":

Now I see the ugly head of fanaticism, I see it large and horrid, I see its black eyes and spine-chilling smile, I see blood on its hands and I know one of its many names :Hamas.

9:55 p.m. Watching Khaled Meshaal recorded statement: while he says Israel has ruined chance of peace, I think he has set down a marker: Hamas will negotiate if there is an unconditional opening of the crossings (which Israel will not accept, of course)

9:50 p.m. Khaled Mashaal, Hamas leader in Damascus, tells Al Jazeera that Israel has failed in Gaza, achieving only "a holocaust which your leaders are trying to use for the next election".

9:45 p.m. Report of 500-1000 demonstrators in front of Israeli Embassy in London. Shoes and signs being thrown, and riot police charging the crowd.

9 p.m. Four Israeli F-16 jets violate Egyptian airspace.

8:30 p.m. Human Rights Watch tells Al Jazeera that it is "convinced" Israeli military is using white phosphorous

8:15 p.m. Information or disinformation? Israel's Channel 2 claims some Hamas fighters are wearing civilian clothes and some are impersonating IDF soldiers.

7:50 p.m. "Rafah Kid" is blogging with updates and opinion from Rafah, Gaza.

7:40 p.m. BBC says up to 50,000 at London demonstration for Gaza. Participants estimate more than 100,000.

6:20 p.m. Israeli military claims that it has killed Gaza City commander of Hamas rocket launching programme.

4:25 p.m. Diplomatic battle lines drawn between Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas. Abbas in Cairo supports "international presence in the Gaza Strip", but Hamas delegation says it was not consulted.

While Abbas covered his back with the warning, "If Israel doesn't want to accept, it will take the responsibility of perpetuating a waterfall of blood," he also set up Hamas for the fall if it does not accept the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal: "If any party does not accept it, regrettably it will be the one bearing the responsibility."

4:15 p.m. Associated Press says leaflets dropped by Israel throughout Gaza announce "a new phase in the war on terror". Israeli Army calls the leaflets "a general warning".

3:45 p.m. Diplomatic negotiations going nowhere. Egypt and the Palestinian Authority have rejected the placement in Egypt of international observers for the Gaza-Egypt border, while Hamas have rejected the placement of an international force in Gaza.

3:40 p.m. From the diary of Sami Abdel Shafi, management consultant and columnist in Gaza City:

Whatever capacity we did have to run our own affairs is now no longer there, and it will make it extraordinarily difficult for the Gaza Strip to go forward whenever the war does end.

Only then will people discover the real cost of this war, when we have to look around and ask just how we begin a rebuilding effort on such a massive scale.

3:35 p.m. UN says three-hour respite not enough to allow resumption of aid deliveries in Gaza.

3:30 p.m. Israel dropping leaflets on Gaza City residents warning them to stay indoors as it plans to "escalate" offensive.

2:15 p.m. The interview with Norwegian doctor Mads Gilbert could have a significant impact if it spreads beyond Al Jazeera, which is featuring it each hour. Gilbert is saying that the injuries he is seeing are not from "ordinary" shrapnel but from DIME (dense inert metal explosive) weapons.

Claims that the Israelis used DIME in Gaza first surfaced in 2006. The weapons have not been declared illegal, but the injuries caused show severe heat as well as percussive damage.

2 p.m. Israeli ground offensive imminent? Israeli Cabinet approves call-up of "unlimited" number of reservists

1:45 p.m. Explosions continue despite supposed three-hour "respite".

1:25 p.m. United Nations official Chris Gunness says Israeli Defense Forces have admitted responsibility for the Jabiliya school/shelter bombing:

In briefings senior officers conducted for foreign diplomats, they admitted the shelling to which IDF forces in Jabalya were responding did not originate from the school. The IDF admitted in that briefing that the attack on the UN site was unintentional.

Gunness added that footage released by the IDF, trying to show Hamas fighters operated from the school in 2007, was filmed after the UN had temporarily abandoned the site.

1:10 p.m. Israeli military says three-hour "respite" began at 1 p.m. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin reports that Israeli forces have surrounded all major population centers in Gaza City.

UN is now investigating the Zeitoun mass killing.

1 p.m. Gazan death toll now 815.

12:40 p.m. Israeli tank shell kills eight members of a family in Jabaliya camp.

12:10 p.m. In Cairo, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas calls Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal a "rescue initiative" which is "the only mechanism" to end Gaza war. Sharp-eyed readers will note that Abbas makes no reference to the UN cease-fire resolution passed just over 24 hours ago.

12:05 p.m. Latest Israeli airstrike just outside Gaza City as Ayman Moyheldin reports live on Al Jazeera.

12 noon: Mads Gilbert, a Norwegian doctor, says 165 dead children and more than 1200 wounded children brought to al Shifa hospital to date.

Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin says Israelis are bringing aid into warehouse but international agencies cannot and will not distribute because of security issues and shortage of fuel. No resumption of aid shipments so far. Close combat between Israeli and Hamas forces overnight, with unknown number of Hamas fighters killed and five Israeli troops wounded.

11:10 a.m. Journalists in Gaza demonstrate after the Israeli strike on a building used by media.

11 a.m. Poll of the Day: Hamas' military branch, the Al Qassam Brigades, offers visitors to their English website the choice of "Keep Calm", "Resume Rockets", "Resume Operations". Right now, it's 40 percent each for "Keep Calm" and "Resume Operations", with 20 percent for "Resume Rockets".

Morning Update: Israeli operations continue overnight, with strikes on more than 40 targets, as talks begin in Cairo on the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal.

Ban Ki-Moon, the United Nations Secretary-General, in a phone call to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, "expressed disappointment that the violence is continuing on the ground in disregard". A UN official has called for a war crimes investigation of Israeli actions.

More to our follow-up on the Zeitoun mass killing: The Guardian has an article --- it appears at least 30 members of the al-Samouni clan died in the Israeli shelling of a house, and up to 30 other civilians died nearby. The dead and wounded lay unattended for up to four days.

More than 800 Gazans have been killed since the start of the conflict two weeks ago. Thirteen Israelis, of whom 10 are soldiers, have been killed --- in contrast to the claims of the Al Qassam Brigades that they killed eight Israeli troops in an ambush, claims no losses on Friday.