Latest Iran Video: The Leverett Line on Killing of Professor Mohammadi (13 January)

World Focus interviewed Flynt Leverett last night about the assassination of Professor Massoud Ali Mohammadi. Leverett accepts without question that this is an attempt to disrupt Iran's nuclear programme. However, his line differs in detail from that presented on Iranian state media by his co-author Seyed Mohammad Marandi, discounting US involvement in the attack while pointing to the possibility of an Israeli role.

Latest Iran Video: How State Media Frames Killing of “Nuclear” Professor (12 January)

Much of the interview, however, is a platform for Leverett's wider (unsupported) allegations that the US Government is providing $400 million to groups for "regime change" in Iran and is funding the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO), the group pursuing an often-violent campaign to overthrow the Iranian Government since 1979.

Israel: Gideon Levy "Only Psychiatrists Can Explain Its Behaviour"

On Sunday,Gideon Levy from Haaretz again questioned the Netanyahu Government's policies and said, "Only psychiatrists can explain Israel's behavior":

Our wild world of crime has recently been sent for observation. From the bodyguard of the IDF Chief of Staff to the killers of their own children - all have been sent for observation. The time has come, as is the custom around here, to send the country for observation, too. Maybe with ongoing treatment from specialists, the diagnosis that will save us can be made.

Israel-Palestine: War or Dialogue With Hamas?

There are numerous reasons for the observation. A long series of acts that have no rational explanation, or really any explanation whatsoever, raise the following suspicions: a loss of touch with reality; temporary or permanent insanity, paranoia, schizophrenia and megalomania; memory loss and loss of judgment. All of this must be examined, under careful observation.

The psychiatric specialists might be so kind as to try to explain how a country with leaders committed to a two-state solution continues to direct huge budgets toward building more settlements in territories it intends to vacate in the future. What explanation could there be, if not from the psychiatric realm, for a 10-month halt to residential construction in the settlements, to be immediately followed by more construction? How can a country be so tightfisted when it comes to healthcare spending on its citizens, whose poor are getting poorer - and yet when a portion of the roads in the West Bank are already deemed as dangerous, they build more and more roads there leading from nowhere to nowhere?

They should explain how the state prosecutor can announce his intention to expropriate more privately-owned Palestinian land at the settlement of Ofra - the "largest illegal settlement in the territories" (in the words of the defense minister's adviser on settlement issues) - when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in his address at Bar-Ilan University last year, explicitly committed not to do so, and President Shimon Peres did more of the same in a meeting with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

They should explain what lies behind the decision to examine annexing Highway 443, which runs through the West Bank, as Israeli territory - as a way of defeating the recent High Court of Justice ruling opening it to Palestinian motorists. How can a country that preaches the rule of law dare outfox the High Court through "bypass" laws? And how have an insignificant minority - the settlers - sown fear and managed to extort the country for so many years?

Psychiatric specialists should make clear how a country that's been dealt a report as potentially disastrous for it as the Goldstone report can so adamantly and stubbornly refuse to convene the commission of inquiry the report provides as an escape clause. How can a nation that has so desperately fought for its international image and standing, and which is so dependent on the world's benevolence, appoint such a thuggish and violent figure as Avigdor Lieberman as its No. 1 diplomat? Half the world is closed to the foreign minister and we suffer the consequences.

Why didn't Israel consider presenting, even through some illusion, a nicer face to the world than Lieberman's threatening visage? Why doesn't a country so ostracized by so much of the world not ask itself, even for a moment, what part it played in shaping that position of isolation, from which it simply attacks and points fingers at its critics? How can a society which has already existed with a cruel occupation in its backyard for two generations refuse to deal with it, continue feeling so good about itself and evade any kind of self-examination or even an inkling of moral equivocation?

What kind of explanation can be given for the fact that a nation with a clear secular majority has no system for civil marriage, no buses or trains operating on Shabbat? How in such a country are wealthy municipal governments required to transfer funds to religious councils, of all places, rather than other needs? How can a country that has to deal with a domestic Arab minority which has maintained surprising loyalty to the country for more than 60 years do everything to put it down, humiliate and exclude it, treat it unfairly and engender a sense of frustration and hatred within it?

Can it be rationally explained how a country, to which all of the Arab nations have presented a historic peace proposal, refuses to even discuss this? It is a country that the president of Syria (whose major ally, Iran, is threatening Israel) is begging to come to a peace agreement with, yet it remains insistent in its refusal. Only psychiatric experts could possibly explain how the continued occupation of the Golan Heights and the missed opportunities for peace relate to security or logic. At the same time, they should try to explain the connection between the sanctity of historic sites and sovereignty over them. And above all, they should clarify how such a smart and talented society participates in this march of folly without anyone objecting.

True, it's a difficult case to figure out - all the more reason to recommend the country be sent for observation.

Israel-Palestine: War or Dialogue With Hamas?

A new operation against Hamas is being discussed by Israeli officials, media institutions and citizens. There are two very different options: 1) hitting Hamas in a military operation even bigger than last year's Operation Cast Lead to give a "better" lesson and open the border or 2) trying to have a dialogue, fostering economic development in Gaza.

Following "hawkish" statements by the Israeli military, The Jerusalem Post claimed that the Israeli Defense Forces are prepared to take control of the Philadelphi Corridor in the southern Gaza Strip and deploy military forces in it, a plan which was shelved ahead of the offensive in December 2008 by the Olmert Government. It is alleged that Hamas has dug several hundred tunnels under this 14-kilometer strip of land to smuggle weapons and explosives.

Israel and Gaza: Another War Possible?

In contrast, an editorial in Haaretz, contends, "Israel needs to re-think of its Gaza strategy before it is too late." Instead of an additional economic embargo and military force, which have failed to ensure Israel's security and ease Gazans' poor living conditions, crossings between Israel and the Gaza Strip should be opened and an economic initiative should be pursued. Here is the full article:

After a year of relative quiet in the south following the cease-fire that ended Operation Cast Lead, there has been a marked escalation in violence along the Israel-Gaza border. Qassam rockets and mortars are being fired from Gaza, and the Israel Air Force retaliated by attacking targets in the Strip, killing several Palestinians. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Hamas that Israel would "respond forcefully" to any fire on its territory.

Incidents involving live fire have aggravated relations between Hamas and Egypt, which is tightening the siege on Gaza. The Egyptians are building an underground steel wall to thwart smuggling through tunnels into Sinai, and are prohibiting supply convoys from entering Gaza through the Rafah crossing. Foreign peace activists who wanted to show support for Gaza were stopped in Cairo.

Gaza erupts whenever Israelis begin to feel that the Strip and its troubles have been forgotten. There is no easy solution to the troubles of 1.5 million poor Palestinians under double blockade, by Israel and Egypt, and whose government is being boycotted by countries around the world. A renewal of rocket fire shows that even a major military operation that brought death and destruction cannot ensure long-term deterrence and calm.

Israel has an interest in stopping escalation at the border so as not to find itself caught up in another belligerent confrontation with Hamas. Netanyahu's threats have not attained this goal. Like his predecessor, he risks placing his imprimatur on public commitments that will only push Israel toward another military operation to "strengthen deterrence" and teach Hamas a lesson."

The time has come to rethink Israeli strategy in Gaza. The economic embargo, which has brought severe distress to the inhabitants of Gaza, has not brought down Hamas, nor has it freed kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit. The siege has only damaged Israel's image and led to accusations that it has shirked its humanitarian responsibilities in Gaza under international law.

Instead of erring by invoking the default solution of more force, which does not create long-term security or ease the distress of the Palestinians in Gaza, the crossings between Israel and the Gaza Strip should be opened and indirect assistance rendered to rebuild its ruins. The same logic that dictates the government's actions in the West Bank - creating an economic incentive to prevent terror - can and must work in the Gaza Strip as well.

Iran: Letter from Tehran "The Regime is Over"

An EA reader has passed us this letter from a friend in Tehran, received yesterday. We post it as it is written, with no editing:

Sorry for taking so long to write to you, I’ve been lying low - I wasn’t really sure whether it was safe for me to write or not, and I just wanted to be careful.

Do you remember Khatami being attacked during Moharram [the assault in Jamaran on Tasua, 26 December --- see video]? We happened to be visiting some friends who live near there and you’ll never believe it but we virtually had a ringside view!

Things are definitely changing here, remember I told you about the last demonstration I had seen in October, and the brutality of the basij etc. Well this time it almost seemed as if some of the attackers really didn’t want to be there! It seems that some of them are getting disillusioned with it all.

The regime is over - it’s just a matter of time! They really can’t last much longer.

Even in the time since I moved back here last year I can sense the change. The hardliners are getting quieter by the day --- indeed I am increasingly hearing them not just criticizing the regime, but actually sympathizing with the movement. They’ve gone from supporting the regime, to silence, to criticism, to support for the opposition in a few short months. Amazingly we are now seeing some of the very religious people beginning to turn away from the Supreme Leader, and even blame him for the younger generation turning away from Islam.

As I told you before families are divided, and on occasion I see people who would have traditionally been much more conservative and even pro-regime, now criticizing the regime and as I say even the SL! This was unheard of even a few months ago.

I get the sense that even among the conservatives they are fighting among themselves! The feeling is that once the economy collapses it will definitely be the end of the regime, and the word on the street is that that is not far away. Every other factor for regime change is in place, and it seems that the opposition’s support grows every day.

Today in EA (12 January 2010)

Iran: News from Iran this morning concentrates on the booby-trap bomb explosion in Tehran that killed Professor Massoud Mohammadi. We have the latest, which includes indication that Mohammadi was not involved in Iran's nuclear programme, and a video of state media's presentation of the event.

Links to this and other top stories, from EA and other media, are available as always, in our weblog.

Amidst recent coverage of Iran and Twitter,  and following yesterday's contributions on this issue, we have a comprehensive analysis today from Christopher Parsons, which seeks to dispell some of the fear, uncertainty and doubt around the Iranian Government's use of digital surveillance techniques.

Scott Lucas considers, amidst recent statements by Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohamad Khatami, the way forward for the opposition: "The question may not be how the regime reacts to these statements  but how the Green movement(s) respond."

US/Israel: Israel media suggest that, behind the scenes, Israel's relationship with the Obama Administration is flourishing, despite Washington's recent sale of arms to four "moderate" Arab states.

Turkey/Israel: A meeting between Turkish and Lebanese Prime Ministers turned into a platform for sharp criticism of  Israel.