Iran Analysis: Assessing the Bazaar Strikes & a Political Twist (Verde)

Mr Verde analyses for EA:

Despite a dramatic government climbdown over an increase in business taxes, the protests of merchants in the Tehran Bazaar seems to be continuing. There are reports that tear gas was used by security forces in the Bazaar on Wednesday and a representative of the merchants was arrested. It has also been claimed that the strike has spread to other cities too.

For the Islamic Republic, the Bazaar is an important institution. It provided a lot of support to the clerics before the 1979 Revolution and has been a steady backer of the regime ever since. Motalefeh, the prominet "conservative" faction, has very strong links with the Bazaar and indeed is known as the Bazaaris' political party. I am guessing that the arrest of one of their representatives is not going to go down well. [Editor's note: EA has noted in recent days the increasing tension, inside and outside Parliament, between Motalefeh and the Ahmadinejad Government.]

The Bazaar did not back the anti-regime protests last year. The Bazaaris mostly kept quiet and did not endorse or condemn either side. Motalefeh at the time supported the Government and Supreme Leader. The emergence of Bazaar protest, albeit for different reasons than the post-election demonstrations, indicates that the government is not only unable to mend fences but is also making new enemies.

Another ominous sign could be this news:

Abbas Palizdar --- a supporter of Ahmadinejad who made speeches claiming that almost all senior clergy were corrupt and was later jailed for it --- has re-surfaced. Now free, he is saying that most of his allegations were baseless lies fed to him by Ahmadineajd supporters. He also said that Ahmadinead’s accusations of corruption against former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and former Presidential candidate Nategh-Nouri, made during the televised campaign debate with Mousavi last year, were based on his "information". He also claims that Ahmadinejad had promised to make him the Ministry of Industry.

Iran Document: Mousavi on UN Sanctions & Ahmadinejad Government (7 July)

From Kalemeh, translated by Negar Irani:

Unfortunately, the Security Council's resolution 1929 was finally passed. This resolution and other resolutions could have easily been avoided had we used some tact and wisdom.

If we are discussing this resolution today, it is not to pour further salt on a wound, rather because ignoring the consequences of this resolution will only make matters worse. Even if we state that this resolution is a pretext, it does not minimize the effects of tumultuous and manipulative policies. Of course swearing at and insulting other countries may have an effect on a small domestic audience with limited awareness; however, in reality it does nothing but further deteriorate the situation outside our borders.

Unfortunately, unlike certain politicians in our country who put their own personal interests above that of our country's national interests, we doubt that the authorities of the countries imposing sanctions on us define their own interests outside the framework of their country's national interests. I am hopeful that our nation paid close attention to the vulgar response given by Russia's Foreign Minister to one of the speakers. In his response he pointed to a fact that has been repeatedly witnessed in international relations, mainly that for Russia (and other countries, such as the United States, China, Turkey, Brazil and others) the most important criteria is protecting Russia's national interests --- although understanding this simple point seems to be difficult for those [in our country] who are unfortunately too wrapped up in their own short-term interests to even notice it.

To me, however, it abundantly clear that this resolution is going to have an adverse effect on our country's security and economy. It will lead to a reduction in our GDP, higher unemployment, and more economic and social pressures on our people, and it will result in a widening of the gap between the development of our country vis-a vis our neighboring countries, in effect, serving as the last nail in the coffin that was being prepared over the past twenty years. Anyone with any common sense will know that the passing of this resolution will only lead to the further isolation and vulnerability of our country.

The fate of other countries in the region that have proudly fallen for the empty rhetoric of such short-sighted nations is a pitiful fate of which we should all be conscious.

Currently, it is important to focus on solutions that will minimize the threats to our independence, territorial integrity, and the legitimate rights of our country. It goes without saying that safeguarding our freedom and the rights of our citizens and defending our national security will not be possible without the free and informed consent of our citizens. Green social networks must focus on solutions designed to safeguard us from this undesirable event.

Before pointing out some of these possible solutions, it is important that we condemn this cruel and unnecessary resolution. We are being condemned while Palestinian land is still easily occupied by others who are given the right to nuclear bombs, while we are deprived of the right to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Surely this resolution is against our country. We must nevertheless also keep our eyes open to the effects of other existing, chaotic, and adventurous policies.

1. The first and most essential solution to countering this resolution is to ensure that our nation is informed in an honest and forthright manner. It is our people's right to better understand the details of this resolution and the additional sanctions that are being added to it. Our people need to understand the effects of these sanctions on the unemployment rate, on inflation, on our GDP, and on the ability of our nation to progress. In other words, they need to understand how it affects their bottom line. Referring to this resolution as a torn piece of paper is not going to solve the problems and challenges facing our nation. If our people have to face and fight an adversity that was not of their choosing, we must at least gain their trust; a trust that will only be developed through transparency and a government that is truthful and forthright.

2. One of the points of our people must be made aware is the predictable security risks resulting from this new resolution. Many of our citizens are unaware of extent of the dangers associated with the path that we have fallen into due to ignorance and exaggeration. The witty rants and boasts by certain individuals pretending that nothing has happened is nothing but betrayal of our people.

If our nation’s readiness is the most important element in fighting the potential dangers we face, then it is incumbent upon us to inform them as much as possible about the potential security consequences associated with the current situation we find ourselves in. If this is too difficult a task for those responsible for our government, they should at least allow non-government media outlets to freely inform our citizens of the necessary analysis with compassion and without exaggeration of the facts.

3. These new conditions require that we expand the current limited circle of advisors to the nuclear issue. As far as I am aware, unlike the era when Mr. Khatami was President, we currently have less people and individuals with far less experience than in the past, handling this sensitive matter. One of the main reasons why we find ourselves in this undesirable and critical position is due to this limited circle of advisers.

Governments of countries that have dealt with the nuclear issue successfully, in addition to having legitimacy, observe national alliances, building upon collective and even relative consensus. What is wrong with allowing our country's Parliament to make decisions with regards to the principles governing our country's nuclear policy the same way they made decisions with regards to the American hostages? Instead, our Parliament is left with no recourse but to come up with last-minute, dictated legislation designed to justify the incorrect decision-making processes of our government.

Why is it that a select few are making secretive decisions about matters that affect the future of our entire nation? Were our people not supposed to be in charge of their own destiny? Why should our people be in agreement with every decision we make? Are the principles associated with referendum meaningless in our society to the extent that every time some one refers to them they have to face a barrage of insults and threats? Should we not instead allow our people to be involved in sensitive and important decisions that affect our entire nation?

4. Under the current conditions, a rift between the people and the government will only result in a higher risk of danger from foreign influences and those with bad intentions. The rigged elections, the oppression that occurred after the elections, the mismanagement and corruption, and the deceitful and confusing economic and cultural policies have led to a crisis and lack of confidence in the government and a distancing of the people from the ruling powers.

Today, more than ever it is vital that we begin to pay attention to and address the solutions that were set forth in the Green Movement's statement #17 [on 1 January 2010]. A repressive and illegitimate government that is at war with its own people is ill-equipped to effectively deal with foreign threats. Under these circumstances, they [the illegitimate ruling government] have to either pay an unfair ransom or put the country at imminent risk.

As a result, creating a safe backdrop for free, fair, competitive and non-selective elections, and ensuring freedom of press, freedom of political prisoners, taking care of the families of those martyred and harmed becomes even more vital. If our people are our main asset for dealing with the serious situation we currently face, then their opinion and viewpoint should be respected. Before making any decisions, we must carefully consider the impact of these decisions on the lives of teachers, white-collar workers, labourers, salaried workers, the poor, and all those working hard to make a living in our society. It is not fair to have the youth who are seeking jobs pay the price of arbitrary and adventurous decisions made by the government.

Let us all bear witness to a bunch of hollering, baton-carrying thugs who do nothing but threaten the lives, livelihood, and dignity of our people in broad daylight and speak of bombarding our Parliament in broad daylight, all under the pretext of pro-government support. Is this how we run the world?

5. Fostering hatred, creating enemies, and continuing factional killings have only led to the regime becoming even more empty-handed. A brief look at the events that took place in New York and Geneva last year only shed more light on the weakness of this government. To overcome this dangerous crisis of management in our country will have to utilize every capacity at our disposal. The danger we face is significant enough that referring to important personalities such as Mr. Hashemi [Rafsanjani], Khatami, Rohani, Aghazadeh, Larijani, and others is a necessity. Is it not unfortunate that our former president [Mohammad Khatami, someone with wide international support and respect] would be prevented from traveling abroad, when his presence would have been instrumental in defending our nation's rights when it comes to nuclear technology? Everyone in our country is aware of the fact that most of the qualified managers and individuals who should be used as an elite force to run the country when in crisis have been excluded from all important policy making decisions. How should we view this obvious, extremely concerning, and controversial reality?

6. The current activities of the IRGC (Sepah) [Islamic Revolution Guards Corps] are questionable to say the least. On the one hand the IRGC and Basiji forces are aiming their weapons directly at the people of our nation instead of at our enemies, playing a key role in the oppression and interrogation of political forces and those opposing the regime. On the other hand the IRGC has also become involved in our nation's economy in an unprecedented manner.

Certainly, restoring the IRGC's original responsibilities will lead to reviving the honorable role of this institution as defenders of our sacred nation. It will also reduce the dangers resulting from greed and malice, enable a more healthy economy, reduce corruptio,n and further encourage the private sector. An IRGC that is more concerned with the volatility of the dollar on the open market and interference in the affairs of banking, the stock market and export and import contracts cannot be trusted with the security of our nation and our revolution.

Unfortunately we are currently witnessing the deterioration of popular support for the IRGC. If this trend continues, it is foreseeable that the IRGC will become exceedingly more interested in defending its own interest in the stocks of companies and institutions in which it is invested rather than defending our nation. Eventually this interest will transform them into authoritarian power that works against the best interest of our nation. If love and trust of the armed forces is considered one of their greatest assets, today the activities of the IRGC as it relates to the economy and our security have led to the significant decrease of their social capital.

We all know that the brave and chivalrous forces within the IRGC are fed up with this type of behavior. Let us not forget the people's hatred of the financial and security institutions during the time of the monarchy and to what extent they were instrumental in the people's anger. As a result of the resolution and sanctions imposed on our country, reviewing the role of the IRGC and Basiji should be a key concern for everyone looking for the best interest of our nation, regardless of our background or affiliation. Here I would like to also reiterate that the attack of the Basiji on Mr. Karroubi and Khatami , the events that occurred on 4 June of this year [the shout-down of Seyed Hassan Khomeini at the ceremony for his late grandfather] and the recent attack and insult of our parliament only further facilitates the interests and goals of those who have imposed the sanctions on our country.

7. The last point we need to focus on is that the sanctions are not designed to bring the government to its knees. If we look back at the experience of 19 August 1953 [the overthrow of Iran's Mossadegh Government] and the bitter fate of Iraq and Afghanistan in contemporary history, it should serve as a clear warning that some governments see their own survival in the continuation of this crisis and in intensified hostilities and that they even go as far as encouraging the use of a military offensive.

It is up to the Green movement to create reconciliation by remaining true to its principles while confronting this clear risk. Resistance to potential foreign threats and invasion is a necessity and ashould be an area of focus for the Green Movement. We must demonstrate to our people that the way out of this crisis is to return to the principles and solutions presented by the Green movement since its inception a year ago. The Green Movement should use its influence and power in the international arena to show foreign powers that it will not allow them to take advantage of the weakness and illegitimacy of the current ruling government and harm the territorial integrity and interests of our nation.

The Green Movement will continue to focus on building awareness within all sectors of our society and in doing so will not allow the oppressors [ruling government] to escape from accountability and responsibility towards our nation by creating a crisis and unnecessary military conflict. We will continue to fight the systematic suppression and intimidation of opponents of this government and will not allow them [the ruling government] to focus on their own short-term interests and in doing so compromise our national interests.

Iran Analysis: Crisis...What Crisis? (Verde)

Mr Verde writes for EA:

With his declaration this week, it looks like Ahmad Tavakoli --- leading conservative member of Parliament, former Minister of Labor, former Presidential candidate, cousin of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and head of Iran's judiciary Sadegh Larijani --- has crossed the Rubicon of resistance. What else coud the following mean?

How does the President permit himself to refuse to follow a laws that he does not think is in his interest or even worse to say to astonished viewers on TV that I will not implement it?

How else can Tavakoli declare that Ahamadinejad “is teaching others to disobey the law”?

Tavakoli is reported to have complained about the post-election abuses in Kahrizak Prison, the attacks on student dormitories, and the corruption cases against high-ranking government officials with corruption case (a clear reference to 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi).

Tavakoli also listed Ahmadinejad’s illegal actions. Moreover, it is reported that Tavakoli said that, to impeach the President,a 2/3 majority of the Parliament is needed. Thirteen months into the post-election crisis, this is the first time anyone in authority has dared speak of Ahmadinejad's removal.

The Islamic Azad University dispute may have been the catalyst for latest developments.

The argument between Parliament and President had been fought for some time, so it is likely that this week's intervention by the Supreme Leader was a reluctant one. Although his verdict was that the status of the university remain unchanged for now, the outcome can be seen as a victory for former Hashemi Rafsanjani.

After all, Khamenei had consistently allowed Ahmadinejad to attack Rafsanjani and had refused to intervene on Rafsanjani’s behalf, even when the latter had requested the Supreme Leader's involvement. In his Friday Prayer sermon a week after the election, Khameni said that, although he had been friends with Rafsanjani for decades, but Ahmadinejad was now closer to him.

The fact that Khamenei has now been forced to intervene in the university crisis with two official orders is a sign that, after a long time, Rafsanjani and his allies have managed to force Khamenei into stopping or slowing down Ahamdinejad’s march on their territory. The cancellation of the meeting of the Supreme Council for Cultural Revolution and the retention of Ahmad Jasbi, a close ally of Rafsanjani, as Islamic Azad's chancellor, is also a slap-down of Ahmadinejad.

A panel led by the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has been set up to look into the SCCR’s decision about Azad University --- which backed the President --- and to report its findings as soon as possible. With a panel endorsement of the SCCR, the dispute can still go Ahmadinejad’s way, but for now he has been slowed down.

These manoeuvres could have created the space for Tavakoli to attack Ahmadinejad in a statement in the Parliament. The location is notable: speeches in the Majlis are documented and become part of the country’s national archive).

There are other signs that all is not well. Some Tehran Bazaar merchants went on strike Tuesday about new taxes. The stoppage is not new --- there was a similar event two years ago --- but by the end of the day the government agreed to scrap the taxes.

The "retreat", as it is already being labelled by reformists, comes at a time when the Government needs to show that it is strong, authoritative, and cannot be pushed around by the closing of shops for a few hours. You would have thought that the Iranian authorities would have at least waited a few days and made the pretence of investigating the grievances before giving in. The episode has left the government looking like pushovers.

Crisis…what crisis?

Iran Special: The Green Movement, the Regime, and "the West" (Nabavi)

Journalist and satirist Ebrahim Nabavi writes for Rooz Online:

More than a year has passed since the beginning of the Green Movement. Today, I would like to tell you things about the Green Movement that you might be less aware of.

Firstly, the Green Movement is not a religious movement, but it cannot be called a secular movement either, yet it can be called a non-religious movement with religious leaders. This is one of the ways for the growth of democracy in the Islamic world. The Green Movement is occurring in a religious society, not because we are in love with religion, no, we are not at all fond of a religious society, but we live in reality and whoever tells you that Iran’s future will be a secular society, do not take their comment seriously for the next fifty years. Even after fifty years, only Henry Kissinger will be able to predict tomorrow.

Secondly, the Green Movement has a distinct leadership. Mir Hossein Mousavi is the leader of this Movement, but he and other leaders of the Movement such as [Mohammad] Khatami and Karroubi have never claimed to be the leaders of the Movement, because the leaders of the Movement have a completely reciprocal relationship with its supporters.

Fifty percent of content of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s thoughts, demands, language and words have changed in the past year, not because he lacks a structured thought, but because he has maintained his interaction and dialogue with the supporters and especially the mid-ranked leaders of the Movement.

Thirdly, the Green Movement is a peaceful. If in the past year, thousands of Iranians have been imprisoned, wounded, exiled, tortured and more than a hundred people have been killed on the streets, it is all because of the regime’s fear of the Movement’s expansion and its widespread use of violence against the people. This year on the 12th of June, the people had planned to take to the streets on the anniversary of the coup, but despite article 27 of the constitution, the government did not grant authorisation.

The Green Movement’s goal is not to bring a ten-thousand strong crowd to the street and thus bring about tens of casualties and hundreds of prisoners. When three million people take to the streets, even a great army is incapable of controlling them, but when five thousand people take to the streets, they can be controlled using five hundred people.

Fourthly: The regime is currently faced with many conflicts. After the anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini’s death which resulted in a dispute between Khomeini’s grandson and Ahmadinejad, a dramatic loss has been occurring in the pro-government camp. A great number of parliament members will return towards the people and sizeable portion of diplomats will probably not return to Iran. Right now, the regime loses between two to five of the leader’s most important aides and on the other side, the Green Movement is able to find more cohesion and is transforming from a chaotic crowd, to a distinct organisation. For a month now, the atmosphere for activity within Iran has opened up and particularly in the cities; there is a chance for the Green Movement to spread the word, especially using graffiti on walls and distributing fliers. All of this is because of an intense dispute among the conservatives themselves. We pray for their disputes to continue.

Fifthly, I said all this to bring the discussion to the issue of media. In Iran, seven channels, tens of radio stations, hundreds of newspapers and thousands of websites working under the supervision of the government, the conservatives, the leader and Ahmadinejad, tell tens of lies every minute. In addition, thirty Persian speaking television stations based in Los Angeles obstruct the people’s thinking by repetitively broadcasting old movies.

On the other hand, the government attacks the internet via filtering and forming the Internet Cyber Army and prevents TV images and radio waves to be reached to the Iranian people through jamming, while independent newspapers have long been shut down. Our main concern is launching a channel for transferring the breath of freedom into the country. For a while now, the Americans have talking of creating a censorship-free internet environment in Iran: Mr [Senator John] McCain is trying very hard in this regard, each time he mentions this, a few more Iranian journalists are arrested, and of course, nothing important happens.

Sixthly, a great constraint for us in launching independent media outside the country is that we cannot receive funds from outside Iran. Using foreign money here is like releasing gazelle into a field with thousands of hunters, some of whom might use tanks to hunt the gazelle. Receiving financial aid from Europe or the United States is like firing a bullet to the head of our colleagues in Iran. Also, my bitter and personal experiences with BBC Persian, VOA, Radio Zamaaneh and Deutsche Welle show that all Persian-language media take into account considerations with respect to their governments.

At times, the damage brought about by a TV station such as the BBC is a thousand times more than its benefits. They have taken away two hundred of our best writers who had hundreds of thousands of readers and turned them into the employees of an organisation which for many years has been viewed with suspicion by those Iranians that believe that the English are responsible for all the evil that occurs in Iran. Besides, the constant intervention of the Europeans in media affairs that are run with European money causes the practical destruction of this media. One those examples are Radio Zamaneh, which has collapsed. After months of efforts, Euronews has still not reached any point and it seems that it has yet to find Persian translators for its employees.

Seventhly, unfortunately, because of using Iranian advisors from previous centuries, many western governments harm the current pro-democracy movement instead of helping it. Three or four years ago, we faced problems for transferring a thousand Euros from France to Belgium because we worked for an opposition website. At the same time, in Europe, millions of Euros of Iranian funds belonging to the regime and the Revolutionary Guards were being used for various purposes that went against legal treaties of the UN. For many years, we have explained that we are not terrorists and in fact oppose terrorism, but the bank’s representative had focused on the word “Iran” which caused us to remove “Iran” from the name of our company.

As we speak, thousands of dollars in Canada and the United States are given to individuals in the name of “helping Iranian journalists”. Nevertheless, not only do these individuals not do anything for the Freedom Movement in Iran, but they effectively create legal dossiers against journalists inside the country. Some right-wing newspapers in Iran are being fed by money provided by you.

Eighthly, the Iranian state uses three methods for preventing any political activity: censorship, causing a lack of trust and obstructing the formation of organisation. These are the three most important measures taken by the Intelligence Ministry. However, our great chance is the internet. In practice and especially under the right conditions, the internet makes up for our three information and intelligence limitations and works for us like an organisation; it eliminates censorship and paves the way for mutual trust.

But the danger of the internet and is our great problem is the penetration of intelligence elements who access our data and are become aware of our plans. This is easier when it come to social networks and more difficult with main inboxes and p websites. Some of the best weapons at the disposal of the Green Movement in Iran are the Balatarin website, Facebook, and Twitter. Despite the fact that the Balatarin website was also used by radical supporters of the government and the radical supporters of a military strike against Iran, it was a powerful source for quickly spreading information and news across the country. In reality, in the past year, the following websites, Balatarin, Facebook, Rooz Online, and Jaras [Rah-e-Sabz] have acted as news websites and have been able to make up for the lack of organisation and to break the atmosphere of censorship. When we took to the streets, we had already spoken our minds on Facebook.

Ninth, despite all the problems that we are facing right now, our work is being followed in Iran because of our use of converting media. Many of our television and internet messages are sent to those lacking access to the internet, via paper fliers and video CDs. Following Ahmadinejad’s 12 June coup, we tried to speak with the media that was close to the people’s ears and through such means; we are currently successful to a certain extent

Tenthly, it might be useful to note that the belief a great number of our friends in the west is based on the belief behind the Islamic Republic’s propaganda. Contrary to the Iranian regime’s propaganda, it is not true that all villagers support Ahmadinejad. Half of them are, and nevertheless, our rural areas account for less than twenty percent of the population of Iran.

Contrary to the prevalent notion, the Freedom Movement of Iran is not a Movement of middle class; it is a completely widespread Movement. Most of the Movement’s casualties and prisoners are from the poor and most of the Army’s commanders are millionaires and billionaires. Mostly because of the current regime in the country, most of the educated are considered as relatively poor by others and the rich class of the country belong to a class of rulers and military and religious figures. Contrary to the prevalent propaganda, the most important group that fight against the regime and struggle for the separation of religion and politics are the moderate religious and Islamo-democratic groups, while a great segment of the government’s supporters’ ties with the state is based on their dependence on government money and they have no religious tendencies.

Eleventh, based on what has been said, we would like to ask those Europeans who think they wish to help us, “Think more about yourselves.” If the bomb that threatens the livelihoods of us as Iranians explodes, it will place the whole planet under threat.

The main problem for Iranians today, is information. We must reflect accurate news inside Iran. In doing so, we might be able to give this news to the entire world too. We do not ask money from you, but try to provide the possibility for breaking free from tyranny. From you as Europeans, we would like to ask you to give us permission to have a television station. We would like you to respond to us a little sooner. We do not want you to have a troubled conscience by asking us “What do you require?” and then abandon us in a cloud of uncertainty. The main requirement for Freedom Movement in Iran is awareness and, specifically, a television channel for conveying the news accurately and completely.

You have experienced the bitter taste of fascism during the Second World War. You know what danger is. We are in the same position as you. Within Iran, the sphere of life is more lively, everything is more dynamic and millions of people want to get rid of the Satan. The mere getting rid of the Satan will suffice, and then, they themselves will choose if they want to enter hell or heaven.

The Latest from Iran (3 July): Fussing and Feuding

2155 GMT: Taking on the Brides. What better way to close a Saturday night than to pick up on the latest triumph of Iran's morality authorities? Mehr News reports that a bridal exhibition in Shiraz has been shut down.

2145 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. A reminder that the brothers Arash and Kamiar Alaei, two doctors prominent in the treatment of HIV/AIDS through the triangular clinic system, have entered their third year of detention.

1940 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Azeri activist Hassan Rahimi Bayat was arrested today at work.

HRANA reports that Peyman Karimi-Azad, detained on Ashura, is in a diabetic coma in Evin Prison after being denied treatment.

NEW Iran Special: The Escalating Crisis Within (Verde)
Iran: Establishing the First “Anti-Censorship Shelter”
Iran Analysis: Assessing Europe’s Sanctions & Tehran’s Oil (Noel)
The Latest from Iran (2 July): Ahmadinejad v. Larijani?

1920 GMT: Economic Front. An interesting revelation about Iran's current economic tensions: while those with higher degrees from universities are 15.1% of the country's workforce, they make up 25.5% of the unemployed.

1910 GMT: Khamenei's "Guidelines" for Filmmakers. The Los Angeles Times picks up on another aspect of the Supreme Leader's statement to those involved in Iranian media (see 1540 GMT), his instructions for suitable movies:

Our film directors should offer products in which positive points eclipse negative and dark points of our society. If you magnify negative points, the society will plunge into disenchantment.

As for censorship, well.... "Sometimes, our artists raise unrealistic concerns about the [restrictions] they face in producing critical films. Some...criticisms against films and television series are correct and they have to respect certain moral, religious and cultural red lines. Transgressing these red lines will be extremely harmful."

So, for example, filmmakers had to keep on their moral toes --- "foreign networks are undertaking incessant efforts to invade chastity and hijab in a bid to destroy the foundation of families in Iran" --- and mind their political manners:

In all products, you should take into consideration the ongoing political events, specifically the animosity of bullying powers against the Iranian nation. Those who claim to be friends of Iran have proven their enmity to our history and culture by their anti-Iranian films. Under such circumstances, any politically motivated show has to be performed carefully not to play into the hands of enemies.

1905 GMT: Which Is More Dangerous: Computers or Guns? The answer of Iran's police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam is that "internet terrorism" menaces the Iranian nezam (system).

To which an EA correspondent replies, " And killing people doesn't?"

1655 GMT: Morality Message of Day. Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, often seen as the "spiritual mentor" of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad but now a possible critic of the President's recent comments on the "morality police", has said: "If a boy and a girl do something against morals, they should be punished with 100 lashes."

1649 GMT: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Financial Mis-Manager? Peyke Iran publishes a list of "financial irregularities", from the Tehran municipal budget of 2005 (when Ahmadinejad was mayor) to $14 billion not allocated to the national treasury in the 2008 budget.

1645 GMT: The Universities Crisis. Press TV publishes an English version of the Guardian Council's slap-down of Parliament over control (labelled as "funding") of Islamic Azad University: "Aside from religious and constitutional violations, and ambiguities that are evident in the different parts of this legislation, because this bill necessitates entering the Supreme Council of Cultural Revolution (SCCR)'s domain of authority, therefore, it is against Sharia law and in violation of articles 57, and 110 of the Constitution."

In other words, Parliament is subordinate to the SCCR, which is largely seen as an enforcement arm of the Government.

1640 GMT: Holland Blackout on IRIB. The planned visit to Dutch networks by an Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting delegation, including its head, Ezatollah Zarghami, has been cancelled after protests by Iranian expatriates and Dutch legislators and media.

1635 GMT: A Clerical Critique. Ayatollah Hashemzadeh-Herissi of Khobregan has asserted that some people are caught up in security and thus act irresponsibly. He added that it is impossible to read some Iranian media because they are "full of lies" and that "values are mistreated in the name of Islam".

1620 GMT: Parliament's Counter-Attack. In the aftermath of the distributing of leaflets by Ahmadinejad supporters denouncing Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, prominent member of Parliament Gholam-Reza Mesbahi-Moghaddam has warned the critics and opponents of Larijani to back off.

Larijani ally Ahmad Tavakoli has pointed to a disruptive current that "tries to blacken all forces within the nezam (Iranian system)".

And Ali Motahari, now prominently leading the fight against the President, has said that Ahmadinejad "cannot stand criticism". He accused the President of "furnishing" the group of protestors that challenged Parliament's attempt to maintain control of Islamic Azad University, and he asserted that government policies "menace the Iranian nezam".

Ahmadinejad supporter Mohammad Khoshchehreh tried to counter by saying that many "hardliners" are not legitimate in their views.

1610 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch (Getting to the Important Part). A striking example of how the difference between viewing Iran "internationally" and watching its internal tensions.

For Agence France Presse, the importance of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement at today's Expediency Council lies in the sanctions issues. AFP highlights this passage:

The world arrogance (US) is trying to intimidate countries of the region, so they go along with bullying policies against Iran, but will not succeed in this act. It is an overt, bullying action against Iran when the US president officially announces that they are targeting the heart of Iran's nuclear programme.

EA's German Bureau gets past this diversion to find the importance of the statement, noting the summary of the Iranian Labor News Agency. Rafsanjani said officials should stop battles between different "gangs", as there is a danger that "radical groups" will weaken the three powers [executive, legislative, and judiciary], official institutions, and officials.

1555 GMT: Rahnavard Intervenes. Zahra Rahnavard has issued a statement urging Iranian authorities to end the oppression of political prisoners:

Today the prisons should be proud to have become the residence of the noble and pure individuals who only seek freedom, democracy, justice, and affluence of humanity and have no concern but the prosperity of the nation; today the prisons are hosts of scientific elite, students, professors, journalists, winner of scientific Olympiads, and defenders of human rights.

1540 GMT: Supreme Leader Meets Iran's State Media, Warns Against Lies. That's probably an overdramatic label --- Ayatollah Khamenei, meeting the Head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezzatollah Zarghami, and producers, writers and artists, was not referring to any lies by IRIB.

Instead Khamenei said, "Those who provided Saddam Hussein with weapons and chemical materials to commit crimes against the Iranian nation have established so-called cultural networks today to pursue the same objectives. This fact should not be overlooked by anyone."

1520 GMT: The Universities Crisis. Rah-e-Sabz reports that the Guardian Council, favouring the Ahmadinejad Government, has rejected the Parliament bill asserting its control over Islamic Azad University.

1330 GMT: Ahmadinejad v. Sanctions. Absolutely no rhetorical overkill in today's declaration by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad:

[The West knows] that there is a sleeping lion in Iran which is waking up and if she wakes up all the relationships in the world will change. Their pathetic acts show they know what a great human power is hidden in Iran.

They thought that by having meetings and talking to each other and signing papers they could stop a great nation's progress. Iran is much greater than what they can perceive it in their small minds. We know that if this Iranian civilization awakes then there would be no more room for arrogant, corrupt and bullying powers.

1320 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Detained labour activist Mansour Osanloo appeared in a Karaj court on Wednesday for unknown reasons.

Hamzeh Karami, manager of the reformist Jomhouriat website and a senior official at Islamic Azad University, has reportedly been hospitalised in Evin Prison with heart and respiratory problems. Karami was arrested shortly after the June 2009 election.

1315 GMT: The Kahrizak Cover-Up. Human rights activist and former member of Parliament Ali Akbar Mosavi Khoeni has asked for a "proper" enquiry by the Government into the handling of the post-election abuses at Kahrizak Prison.

Two prison employees were sentenced to death this week and nine others were given jail terms after a closed-door trial, but activists believe senior officials responsible for Kahrizak have escaped investigation and punishment.

1300 GMT: (Digital) Economy Watch. Iran has ranked 69th out of 70 countries for strength of "digital economy" in a study conducted by The Economist Intelligence Unit and IBM's Institute for Business Value.

Iran was 68th in 2009 but avoided a fall to the absolute bottom this year by edging out Azerbaijan.

1110 GMT: Play It Again, Ali. He might be fighting with the President at home, but Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani is maintaining Iran's common tough-talk line on sanctions. He told reporters Friday that threats will not work against Tehran: "If the US wants to act in the same way as before, this approach would prove costly for them."

0840 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. Edward Yeranian of Voice of America offers a useful summary, "Iranian Officials Scoff at Impact of New US Economic Sanctions".

0820 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran publishes what it claims is a psychologist's report from August about Tehran police chief Ahmad Reza Radan. It includes provocative items such as Radan's alleged promise to detainees in the now-infamous Kahrizak Prisoners that "they should forget Auschwitz and Guantanamo".

Parleman News claims journalist Aazam Veysameh is being held incommunicado in solitary confinement, with no visits from family.

0725 GMT: We open this morning with a special analysis from Mr Verde, "The Escalating Crisis Within".

Meanwhile....

World Cup Funnies

EA has posted a comedy piece (we think it's a comedy piece) by a former speechwriter for George W. Bush who claims, "Soccer is a Socialist Sport", but football humour isn't limited to the US.

Earlier this week, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki did a routine on how the World Cup humiliations of France, England, and the US were due to God's smiting of those who oppressed Iran with sanctions (and qualification for the World Cup). The punchline comes from Parleman News, however: the website notes that God seems to have turned against Tehran by taking down its ally on the nuclear issue, Brazil.

EA is waiting for Mottaki's assessment of what God thinks about Holland, Brazil's conquerors in the quarter-finals.

Conflicting Signals

Unfortunately for the Government, the confusion is not only over God and football. While Tehran's Friday Prayer leader, Ayatollah Emami Kashani, was giving the party line that opposition could not be tolerated, warning lawyers that defence of wrongdoers is forbidden, the Friday Prayer leader in Golestan, Ayatollah Nour-Mofidi, said, "Criticism of government does not mean opposition to nezam [the Iranian system]", and media loyal to that system should be free.

Deputy Speaker of Parliament Alaeddin Boroujerdi tried to hold everything together by denouncing Iran's enemies --- the US is like the Soviet Union before its decline --- and attacking Mir Hossein Mousavi. Not sure that the attack brought home its intended message, however. Boroujerdi said Iran ad 80% popularity in Muslim countries before elections and this dropped to 27 % afterwards --- but is that shift really due to Mousavi rather than, say, some other politician or regime figure?