Israel-Turkey: The Latest on the Threat to Cut Military Ties

Responding to his Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu's threat to cut ties with Israel, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman stated that Israel would not be apologising to Ankara over the flotilla events. He said, "Every nation chooses its own diplomacy and to my sorrow Turkey has chosen the wrong direction."

However, speaking to the Knesset, Israel's army chief Gabi Ashkenazi said that military ties between Israel and Turkey remained strong despite political tension. Although Turkish airspace is now closed to the Israeli military (except for deliveries to Ankara) and joint operations have been suspended, Ashkenazi noted that the Turkish military had contributed the  lead article to the June issue of the Israel Defense Forces' magazine.

Israel Snap Analysis: Defense Minister Barak’s Win-Win Strategy?
Israel-Turkey Special: How Serious is Ankara’s Threat to Cut Relations? (Yenidunya)

What was Ashkenazi's message to his government? Is he indicating that the army is not happy with the political friction or is he accepting the dispute, while indicating there should be no further damage to relations?

Israel Snap Analysis: Defense Minister Barak's Win-Win Strategy?

On Sunday, Isrraeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer had heated argument  during a Labor Party meeting.

Barak's associates  said he had opposed the secret meeting between Ben-Eliezer and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Zurich and told Prime Minister Netanyahu as much, though he ultimately decided not to veto the mission. Ben-Eliezer was angry with Barak cause he is accusing Barak of leaking information of the meeting with Turks. He allegedly told Barak's media spokesman, Barak Seri, "I'll skewer you. I am Iraqi. You don't know who are dealing with."

If it is true that it was the Defense Minsitry leaking the meeting to media --- and not the Foreign Minsitry of Avigdor Lieberman, as was initally reported --- then what is on Barak's mind? Is this a win-win strategy: if Netanyahu is not capable of dealing with Lieberman, then Barak takes over while if the Prime Minister succeeds, Barak grabs a portion as Lieberman leaves the coalition?

Palestine & Israel: The Situation on the Eve of Obama-Netanyahu Talks

On the eve of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has reportedly proposed the creation of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, with a possible land swap of 2.3 percent of the West Bank.

The PA would receive land of comparable size and quality in the southern West Bank as well as a corridor between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Abbas also reportedly proposed the easing of Palestinian demands over East Jerusalem to permit the Jewish Quarter of the Old City as well as the Western Wall to remain under Israeli sovereignty. The remainder of the Old City would become the capital of a Palestinian state but would be open to the adherents of all faiths.

Israel-Turkey Special: How Serious is Ankara’s Threat to Cut Relations? (Yenidunya)
Israel & the US: Who is Offering Concessions at Home and Abroad? (Yenidunya)

However, on Saturday, chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat denied that Abbas had condoned these proposals. Dismissing reports of progress between the Palestinians and the Israelis, Erekat said that the American intention to upgrade current peace discussions to direct talks has been failing due to Israel's actions. He continued:

Israel refuses to give up the building in the settlements and to agree to renew the negotiations that were impeded by this stumbling block and, therefore, has failed in the intention to transform the proximity talks into direct contacts.

If Abbas was supporiting the reported offer, similar to the Camp David proposal of the Palestinian side in 2000, it matches Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's alleged suggestion to Obama, asking for the approval of the Israeli rule and the continuation of but limitation of construction in large settlements in the West Bank.

The Palestinian side and the Americans may realise that the current pressure on Israel to continue the freeze onn construction in the West Bank settlements is not sustainable as settlers' friction with Palestinians are increasing. Palestinians might be preparing for a soft turn if Washington approves.

However, the core issues are going to be the refugee problem and, especially, the status of Jerusalem. Palestinians are insistent on East Jerusalem as the capital of a Palestinian state and on rule over the Temple Mount while giving the authority of the Jewish Quarter and the Western Wall to the Israeli government. This is likely to be the key to a move to direct talks.

And Hamas? Well, the flotilla crisis is on hold now, since the international community gave consent to Israel's internal probe and West Jerusalem's officials are to announce the new and relatively limited blacklist of goods prohibited entry into Gaza. The Israeli government has successfully reduced the "problem" with Hamas to the status of captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. If Washington steps back and the Palestinians pursue a practical solution, the process will continue without Hamas as long as it does not change its strategy.

Israel-Turkey Special: How Serious is Ankara's Threat to Cut Relations? (Yenidunya)

UPDATE 0955 GMT: Reuters and Israeli newspapers have now picked up on the Davutoglu "three options", including the cut-off of Turkish ties with Israel.

Are relations between Turkey and Israel, after a week of surprising developments, at crisis point? To review....

Last Monday, Israeli media reported that Turkey had not allowed a plane carrying Israeli military officers, en route to a tour of memorial sites in Auschwitz, Poland, to fly over Turkish airspace.

Then Israel's Trade Minister Benjamin Ben Eliezer, with the backing of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, had a secret meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. When news of the meeting was leaked by Israeli Foreign Ministry, the Turkish side put the ball in Netanyahu's court and stated that the demand for the discussion came from the Israeli side. The Turkish daily Hurriyet claimed that there were four points made by West Jerusalem:

Israel-Turkey Analysis: Netanyahu Saves Face with Foreign Minister by Snubbing Ankara and Washington (Yenidunya)

- Israel is sorry for the tragic deaths.

- According to investigations, there were people linked with Hamas on board. So, it is not possible to pay compensation to these people and their families. Israel can pay to those with no connections.

- Though it understands Turkey's insistence upon an international commission, Israel believes that Turkey should give a chance to its internal enquiry.

- To discuss these matters, Israel wants the diplomatic channels to be opened. Israel is ready to talk.

Returning from a subsequent trip to Kyrgyzstan, Davutoglu said that the Israelis have three options:1) Apologise; 2) Accept an impartial international enquiry and its conclusions; 3) Accept the cutting of diplomatic ties with Ankara.

Denying that President Obama was behind the clandestine meeting last week, Davutoglu stated that Turkey's airspace is entirely closed to Israel's military planes and added:

There is no demand whether this ban should be extended to civilian planes for the time being. It will be considered according to developments. If no steps are taken, Israel's isolation process will continue. We know what we want. Principally, we are right.

The Turkish Defense Ministry informed the Israel Defense Forces over the weekend that it has decided not to participate in a naval search-and-rescue exercise planned for next month. Called Reliant Mermaid, the annual exercise began 10 years ago and included the Israeli, Turkish and American navies. It was even carried out last year after Israel's Operation Cast Lead in Gaza raised tensions with Turkey, although Israel was removed from the Anatolian Eagle air force exercise.

At the end of the day, Turkey is decreasing its military relations with Israel at points where Turkey has no direct interest , such as Israel's use of Turkish airspace and joint military operations, to benefit from the friction over Gaza and the attack on the Freedom Flotilla. However, the limits of this game are also crystal clear.

Obama sent his First Warning to Ankara on Saturday. British Arabic-language daily al-Hayat reported that the US President warned Turkish Prime Minsiter Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the international probe which Turkey has demanded could turn into a "double edged sword", as it could lead to accusations against the passengers on board the Turkish-flagged Mavi Marmara, some of whom were members of the pro-Palestinian IHH organization.

Egypt Analysis: A Practical Government's Moves on Gaza (Yenidunya)

On Saturday, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit criticized the US for failing to advance the Middle East peace process. Gheit said that the conduct of Washington's envoy to the region, George Mitchell, would not bring about a settlement even 10 years from now. Later, he told the Egyptian daily al-Masry al-Youm that the Arab League will turn to the United Nations Security Council to declare an independent Palestinian state if talks between Israel and the Palestinians do not bear fruit by September.

Meanwhile, the Ma'an News Agency reports that more than 20,000 residents have traveled through the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt since Cairo announced its indefinite opening on 1 June. According to the Gaza crossings authority, 10,531 residents left Gaza while 10,172 have returned so far. Only 1,865 of those who left Gaza have permission to reside in Egypt; the rest must go back.

Meanwhile, Cairo is continuing its leading role in indirect negotiations between Hamas and the Israeli government on a prisoner swap in for Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier held by Hamas for four years.

Amidst all these purported moves for resolution, Cairo banned an Arab delegation including 15 members of the Arab countries, headed by Assistant Secretary-General of the Union of Arab Lawyers, Abdel-Azim Al Maghribi, from entering Gaza on Saturday. Hamas responded with a call for the delegation to enter Gaza and to assist their humanitarian mission.

Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri also told the Palestinian Information Center that the measures taken at the Rafah crossing do not reflect any change in Egyptian intentions to move goods and people from and into Gaza.