The Latest from Iran (13 July): Back to Politics?

2030 GMT: Tie Me Up, Tie Me Down. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami has denounced President Ahmadinejad for saying that no religious leader has banned the wearing of a tie: "I say to him that many religious dignitaries believe ties should not be worn. The Supreme Guide [Leader] himself has said in a that the wearing of ties or bowties is not permitted."

1955 GMT:Electricity Squeeze. Mohammad Behzad, the Deputy Minister of Energy, has said industrial electricity will be rationed with alterations of working hours and rotating closures of companies.

1945 GMT: Iran Aircraft on Empty? BP and Iran Air have both confirmed that the British company has stopped supplying jet fuel at Germany's Hamburg airport.

Iran Analysis: Grand Ayatollah Golpayegani Criticises Supreme Leader? (and What Could It Mean?)
Iran’s Haircuts Special: The Revenge of the Mullets
The Latest from Iran (12 July): Holidays?

1915 GMT: Where is Mahmoud (Not Going)? Hmm, not sure what to make of this. From Mehr News:

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has postponed his visit to Lebanon till after the holy month of Ramadan [which ends on 9 September], the Beirut-based Al-Akhbar newspaper said in a report published on Tuesday.

The decision was made after a consultation between Tehran and Beirut, Al-Akhbar quoted Lebanese diplomatic sources as saying....

Ahmadinejad, who has been invited by his Lebanese counterpart Michel Suleiman, was supposed to visit Beirut before 11 August at the head of a 70-member delegation.

1900 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. From Press TV:

Iran's Interior Minister says Tehran has successfully foiled all foreign plots aimed at destabilizing the country over the past three decades. "Over the past 30 years, our enemies faced defeat in every instance and their latest ploy was [inciting] the seditionists who wanted to break our ranks," Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar told reporters on Tuesday....

The Interior Minister said peace was restored to the country's eastern region after the execution of Abdolmalek Rigi, the ringleader of the Pakistan-based Jundallah terrorist group.

"With the execution of this villain, who was backed by several Western spy agencies and the Israelis, complete peace has returned to the region."

1850 GMT: The Prison Scandal. Writing in Rooz Online, Fereshteh Ghazi offers a lengthy critique of the Kahrizak abuse case. She sets out the case that, while two security personnel have been condemned to death and nine have been given prison sentences, those responsible --- notably former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi --- have escaped justice.

1825 GMT: Politics and the Bazaar Strike. An EA correspondent pulls together the latest from the Tehran Bazaar and a statement by the head of the "conservative" Motalefeh Party, Mohammad Nabi Habibi, on growing conflict with President Ahmadinejad and his allies, "The Velayat Party [declared by Ahmadinejad this weekend] does not exist."

Our correspondent, drawing on Motalefeh's traditional power in the Bazaar, interprets Habibi's statement: "If you hit my party, I hit your economy."

1815 GMT: More on the Khatami Statement (see 1510 GMT). Khabar Online's main takeaway from Mohammad Khatami's meeting with youth groups and reformist journalists is his declaration that "many people, professors, students, experts, and journalists are leaving the country".

Parleman News focuses on Khatami's assertion that the "Green Movement belongs to the people" and his reading of the political situation: "Some think they are above the law," deviating from religious principles. Khatami added,  "We have reached a point that even the Majlis cannot stop injustice". In a pointed reference to President Ahmadinejad's statement that Iran needs no other than the "Velayat Party", Khatami noted, "The Shah said as well that we have only one party."

1630 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Tehran Bureau sends the following from a correspondent: ""I visited the bazaar today and was quite surprised to see most stores closed there. There were NO security personnel in uniform to be found anywhere. I did see a Basiji directing traffic half a mile away. There was also a flier on the wall (inside the main bazaar) which said the '15% deal is off'."

More claimed footage from today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FN26VggCKqE[/youtube]

1525 GMT: Culture Corner (Revolutionary Guard Edition). The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps has announced that it is establishing an "Association of Cultural Elites" near Tehran University.

1510 GMT: Khatami on "Double-Edged" Religion. Speaking to youth parties and reformist journalists, former President Mohammad Khatami has declared that religion can be "a double-edged sword" insofar as it can pursue rights and justice but it also be a tool to justify exclusion and failure.

1455 GMT: Fighting the Oil Squeeze. Iranian Students News Agency reports that Iran cut its imports of gasoline by almost 50% in March-June 2010, compared to figures of the previous year.

1445 GMT: Keeping the Pressure On. Interesting, given our current attention to possible manoeuvres against President Ahmadinejad, to find Jahan News citing Abdolhossein Ruholamini, the campaign manager for Mohsen Rezaei in the 2009 Presidential campaign and the father of Mohsen Rouholamini, killed in Kahrizak Prison last summer.

Ruholamini asks, given that the criminal verdicts over Kahrizak have been announced, why has Saeed Mortazavi, the former Tehran Prosecutor General and now aide to the President, not been dismissed?

1435 GMT: Statements Present. Mir Hossein Mousavi has said, in a meeting with a group of faculty of Tarbiat Modarres University, that everyone who defends rights is a member of the Green Movement.

Mousavi declared, "Soon Green Hope will win because people are looking for the realization of rights. The seeking of human freedom is the defence of rationality and logic against oppression and lies."

1425 GMT: Statements Past. Khordaad 88 has posted the English translation of the Mousavi-Karroubi press conference on 8 June, held four days before the anniversary of the 2009 Presidential election.

Rooz Online has published the English translation of its interview this weekend with Zahra Rahnavard on the diversity of the Green Movement and its welcoming of criticism.

1420 GMT: Broadcast News. The head of SWR, part of the German broadcaster ARD, has defended the recent visit of the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezzatollah Zarghami, and an IRIB delegation by saying that there were no cooperation agreements during an "informational visit". The clear implication in the letter is that the reception of IRIB ensures that ARD can maintain a journalistic presence in Iran.

1410 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Four detainees in Rejai Shahr Prison have written the Tehran Prosecutor General, Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi, asking, "Where is the human dignity you have claimed?"

A letter from 160 activists demands the release of Azam Veysameh, a journalist arrrested on 10 June.

1400 GMT: Political Changes. Hossein Saberi, the Governor of Lorestan Province in western Iran, was suddenly replaced. So sudden, in fact, that he learned of his dismissal from an announcement on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting.

1355 GMT: And now claimed footage of the strike at the Tehran Bazaar today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rk4CqIK-ZIg[/youtube]

1345 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Rah-e-Sabz claims, with supporting photos, that "strikes continued today and were even more extensive than last week".

Khabar Online is also carrying the news, which has been picked up by Agence France Presse. The Government has been declaring that a compromise deal of a 15% tax increase --- down from the original 70% --- has been agreed.



1340 GMT: Parliament v. President. MP Omidvar Rezaei has said that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani "reminded" President Ahmadinejad, at the meeting of the heads of the executive, legislative, and judicial brances, of violating Article 138 over the implementation of laws.

MP Emad Afrough has declared that the Supreme Council of Cultural Revolution, at the centre of the dispute over Islamic Azad University, is far from acceptable because of members' inability, too many jobs, and low expertise.

1325 GMT: Execution Watch. The international furour over the sentencing to death by stoning, now temporarily suspended, of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani has been matched by questions within Iran. Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani has pronounced that stoning is not in the Qu'ran while reformist Masoumeh Ebtekar, a former Vice President, has asserted that Ayatollah Khomeini said many times that stoning should not be carried out.

1020 GMT: The Battle Within. Ali Larijani has used the economic front to take another jab at the Government. He has underlined the importance of a "relationship between hardliners and clergy" (a call for a front to challenge Ahmadinejad?) and added that the meaning of Iran's Article 44 regulating state and private economic spheres was not for the latest sell-off of four companies.

1015 GMT: Sideshow of the Day. A bit off the key terrain of Iranian politics, this curious case continues:

An Iranian nuclear scientist who Tehran claims was kidnapped by the United States has sought refuge at the Pakistani embassy's Iranian interests section in Washington and is seeking to return home to Iran, Pakistani authorities said Tuesday.

Shahram Amiri, a onetime researcher at Iran's Atomic Energy Organization who disappeared during a trip to Saudi Arabia last year, appeared at the Iranian interests section office at 6:30 p.m. Monday, said Pakistani Foreign Office spokesman Abdul Basit.

0828 GMT: Break Time. Off to teach at the Clinton Institute Summer School so updates will resume briefly in about 90 minutes and then again this afternoon.

0825 GMT: The Battle Within. Secretary of Expediency Council (and 2009 Presidential candidate) Mohsen Rezaei has given a long interview to Khabar Online. Lots to be worked through, but an EA correspondent notes his claim
that Hashemi Rafsanjani's manoeuvre is "to bring back reformers and divert (enheraf) hardliners".

That would seem to be a swipe at Rafsanjani, which is at odds with my weekend analysis of planners against Ahmadinejad, including Rezaei, reaching out to the former President.

0810 GMT: Electoral Change. The Guardian Council has approved a Parliament bill to hold Presidential and city council elections at the same time, effectively the next municipal ballot by two years to 2013.

0807 GMT: We Want Our Money. According to Peyke Iran, President Ahmadinejad has claimed that banks owe the Government 10 trillion toman (about $10 billion).

0805 GMT: Economic Salvation? Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times investigates continued and growing links between Germany and Tehran:

Chancellor Angela Merkel can warn companies all she wants to stop doing business with Iran. Yet commerce between German firms and the Islamic Republic keeps expanding, as businesses here continue longstanding relationships with Tehran.

In the first four months of 2010, trade between Iran and Germany totaled nearly $1.8 billion, up 20% from the same period last year, according to the German-Iranian Chamber of Commerce in Hamburg.

0800 GMT: Trouble in Qom? Alongside our special look this morning at a claimed rebuke of the Supreme Leader by Grand Ayatollah Safi Golpayegani, Rah-e-Sabz claims concern amongst clerics about a change in identity of the seminaries (howzeh).

0755 GMT: Watching the Bazaar. Iran should be back to work today after an extended holiday since last Thursday. We're watching for news out of the Tehran Bazaar, amidst chatter both about continued strikes and about a settlement between the Government and the vendors, reducing the business tax increase from 70% to 15%.

0725 GMT: We begin this morning with an analysis of a reported message from Grand Ayatollah Safi Golpayegani to the Supreme Leader: has Ayatollah Khamenei been told that his earthly life has been wasted and his heavenly one is in doubt?

And it looks like there is a new player in Iranian broadcasting: welcome to Mir Hossein Mousavi TV.

Iran Special: A Response to "The Plot Against Ahmadinejad" (Verde)

Mr Verde assesses EA's Saturday "exclusive" on the planning amongst leading Iranian conservatives/principlists to limit the President's authority or even remove him from office

I thank him and offer this quick addition. I fully agree that the plotters against Ahmadinejad are "trying to protect their own interests within the regime...[rather] than offering a real change of direction". The evidence from our sources may indicate that they no longer think their interests can be protected with the President in office.

But, as Mr Verde notes, their success depends on getting the Supreme Leader to accept this point of view (and possibly setting up defences against a response by the Revolutionary Guard). That success in turn needs more than the current base of planners: Hashemi Rafsanjani and senior clerics, in their view, have to be added. Until they see this as likely, the private manoeuvres of Larijani-Rezaei-Tavakoli will not become public beyond their speeches challenging the Government:

Iran Exclusive: The Plot to Remove Ahmadinejad, Act II

As the exclusive notes, under the present circumstances the possibility that Ahmadinejad is impeached by the Parliament is unlikely. They will need the signature of 1/3 of MPs to start the process and a 2/3 vote to actually impeach him.

We all saw what happened when the Majlis voted against the pro-Ahmadinejad Supreme Council for Cultural Revolution in the contest over Islamic Azad University, in which the Parliament backed down within 48 hours. In an impeachment process, we would probably witness more than a busload of thugs in front of Majlis.

Even if the president is impeached, the Supreme Leader will have the final say in dismissing him and Khamenei has invested too much on Ahmadinejad. And even if Ahmadinejad were to be dismissed, the First VP Mohammad Reza Rahimi would become an interim president. Because the planners have as many problems with Rahimi as they do with Ahmadinejad, they would have to get rid of him before moving on the President.

All this new talk of attacking and threatening Ahmadinejad by the Larijani-Rezaei axis is probably from a position of weakness rather than strength. They feel that, as a result of changes in the past few years and especially the last 12 months, Ahmadinejad and Co. are moving to limit their power and influence. With Khamenei’s intervention in the Azad University case, they have found some space to try to push back against Ahmadinejad ----the Kahrizak Prison abuse scandal and Rahimi’s corruption case are just convenient excuses. So this could be more a rear-guard action than a strategy for attack.

The events of the past year have resulted in a logjam within the Islamic Republic. The election fraud and the post-election actions by the regime have left the Republic’s reputation in pieces. Violence on behalf of the Islamic Republic against its own citizens is not new; what is new is that this time the violence has been directed at the entire population rather than targeted at specific groups, like the leftists, MKO [Mujahedin-e-Khalq], reformists, etc.

As the Supreme Leader, Khamenei has clearly said that he supports Ahmadinejad, and within the regime he has concentrated power in the hands of a small faction that is behind the President. If he were to move against Ahmadinejad now, there were be two consequences. Firstly, the people who are behind Ahmadinejad would rebel against the decision, further damaging the Supreme Leader's reputation and influence. Secondly, Khamenei would be admitting that his decision to back Ahmadinejad wholeheartedly was wrong. This would lead to more serious questions about his judgement and his ability to remain in charge. More of the Republic’s servants would doubt Khamenei as the Leader and the legitimacy of the regime and their roles with it.

Therefore, the whole existence of the Islamic Republic could be threatened if Khamenei were to try to sacrifice Ahmadinejad. This might have been possible last summer: Khamenei could have withdrawn his support of the President then and allowed him to fall. Khamenei would have been damaged too, but he could probably have gotten away with it. But since Khamenei, for whatever reason, decided to stand by Ahmadinejad, the only way he could now get rid of him is if the regime had managed to create stability in Iran. The current situation is far from that: we are witnessing new crises on a daily basis.

Some might say that Khamenei could get rid of Ahmadinejad and install someone like Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, or Secretary of Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei. The problem is that this person would have to give in to at least some of the demands of the opposition and protestors. If that were to happen, the regime, which has been so inflexible, would suddenly have signalled to the population that ,with enough pressure, it would relent, no matter serious the issue. That could be the start of a new, and perhaps more determined, wave of opposition and protests.

Some might argue that the reformists can take over. They are too far from the centre of power at the present time. And it is increasingly looking like the reformists are facing ideological problems of their own. They seem to speak in paradoxes: both “return to the values Islamic Revolution” and “human rights”. They have not yet managed to explain how it would be possible to return to the values of the Revolution under Ayatollah Khomeini and install values like democracy, human rights, etc. The mess we are in at the present time is the result, not the abuse, of the values of the Revolution as interpreted by Khomeini. So a reformist takeover within the regime could lead to more public demands for change (and maybe even more protests) which could end up causing more damage to the Islamic Republic.

The regime in a precarious impasse with Ahmadinejad as a piece within the stalemate. If this piece is taken away in the present circumstances, it may lead to the whole structure collapsing

As far as the clerics are concerned, I think they are in a lose-lose situation. On the one hand, Ahmadinejad & Co. (with support from Khamenei) are moving to limit and weaken their power within the regime. On the other hand, the three decades of clerical rule in Iran have left them discredited. [Editor's Note: see an earlier analysis by Mr Verde, “The Escalating Crisis Within”).

Therefore any moves by Larijani-Tavakoli-Rezaei-etc against Ahamdinejad are probably more to do with them trying to protect their own interests within the regime, than a real change of direction. Otherwise, the regime could face more serious problems.