The Latest from Iran (29 July): 22% Support?

1935 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activist Hoda Saber, who was mysteriously taken by unknown persons on Saturday, has called his family from Evin Prison. The reason for arrest is unknown.

International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran updates on the transfer of 15 political prisoners, including student activist Abdollah Momeni and journalist Bahman Ahmadi Amoui, to solitary confinement in Evin Prison. (We have previously reported that 10 detainees were transferred.) The 15 are protesting the “unsuitable treatment of prisoners and their families by prison authorities and Ward 350 officers on visitation days; lack of health and welfare facilities; as well as suspension of visitation privileges of several prisoners.”

NEW Iran Analysis: Twisting & Turning to Prove the Leader is Supreme (Verde)
NEW Iran: How “Ahmadinejad v. Paul the Octopus” Became a Global Showdown
Iran Analysis: The Hardliners Take on Ahmadinejad
Latest Iran Video: Ahmadinejad on Afghanistan, Sanctions, & the US (26 July)
The Latest from Iran (28 July): A Presidential Target?

1730 GMT: Sporting Moment. Kodoom reports on triumph turned into trouble....

Hossein Askari, riding for the Tabriz Petrochemical Cycling Team, won the Tour of Qinghai Lake in China.  However, according to Ali Zangiabadi, the director of the Iranian Cycling Federation, Askari will face disciplinary action in Iran after he popped the cork from a champagne bottle in his victory celebration.



1720 GMT: Academic Corner. The Educational Testing Service has announced that it is resuming registrations in Iran for TOEFL (Teaching of English as a Foreign Language) and GRE (Graduate Record Examination) tests.

The examinations, which are vital for many Iranian students who wish to study abroad, were suspended two weeks ago after tighter U.N. Security Council restrictions on financial transactions involving Iran led to ETS's banking arrangements being discontinued. Students wishing to take the tests may now register through Iran's National Organization of Educational Testing or mayn use credit/debit cards issued by banks that are not prohibited under UN or US sanctions.

1530 GMT: Solving the Oil Squeeze? Three Russian state-controlled oil companies may begin delivering gasoline to Iran in a month, the head of the Iran Commission of the Moscow Chamber of Commerce & Industry has said. Talks are being held on a “working level” and the first delivery may take place in late August or September.

1500 GMT: Karroubi Answers. Mehdi Karroubi has offered a response to Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council (see separate entry): "If I am an intriguer, then you are in league with those who stole the people's votes....What you called sedition was an election which was as usual engineered by you and think tanks led by you or others like you at the Ministry of Interior and Guardian Council."

1420 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iranian activists have posted an updated letter, addressed to the Supreme Leader, requesting commutation of the death sentences of Jafar Kazemi (see 1110 GMT) and Mohammad Ali Haj Aghaei, both arrested during post-election protests and accused of "mohareb" (war against God).

Radio Zamaneh has now posted an English text of the news of Kazemi's sentence.

1410 GMT: Oil Squeeze. Reports indicate that Iran shipped around 9 million barrels of crude oil to China in June, a fall of 13.1 million barrels from last year.

1400 GMT: Water Watch. The Los Angeles Times updates on the reports that water in parts of Tehran are contaminated with high levels of toxic nitrate.

The article reports that the Ministry of Power has handed out free bottles of water to an underprivileged suburb south of the city. The Water and Sewage Waste Organization has recently dug new wells to expand the water supply. However, Minister of Health Marziyeh Vahid Dastjerdi announced that the amount of nitrate found in the drinking water in parts of Tehran exceeded the appropriate level, posing a serious threat to city-dwellers’ health.

1310 GMT: Mousavi Watch (1988 Edition). An EA correspondent checks in:

"The big news today is Enqelab Eslami, the Paris newspaper of former President Abulhassan Bani-Sadr, is allegedly re-leaking the full contents of the letter that Mousavi wrote to Ayatollah Khamenei in 1988 explaining his sudden resignation as Prime Minister. (The resignation was refused by Khomeini, who forced Mousavi to stay on.)

The contents, which I am trying to verify, are amusing: Mousavi decries his total lack of control or even information over events surrounding Iranian foreign policy and activities. For example, he states that he received word through the press that Iranian pilgrims have been apprehended in Jeddah carrying firearms or that the Speaker or Parliament, Hashemi Rafsanjani, exchanged letters with the Prime Minister of Japan and Mousavi only got wind of it when both sides finished the exchange.

Essentially this is a strong accusation against the un-constitutional accumulation of powers by Khamenei. Enqelab Eslami first leaked the letter in 1988, prior to Khomeini's death. It now republishes iafter Mousavi's threat to reveal all, (see the letter posted on EA).

Now the ball's firmly in Mousavi's own court: he either needs to deny the veracity of the claims or confirm the letter...."

1140 GMT: Mousavi Watch. Kalemeh has a short report of Mir Hossein Mousavi's meeting this morning with members of the Assembly of Teachers and Researchers of Qom.

1110 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An Iranian activist reports that he death sentence of political prisoner Jafar Kazemi has been upheld by an appellate court.

Kazemi, arrested last September during protests, was convicted of "mohareb" (war against God) for connections with Mujahedin-e-Khalq, a charge that he has denied. He was also in prison for nine yers during the 1980s.

Reporters Without Borders has condemned the "abuse" of detained journalist Abdolreza Tajik and other political prisoners, “It is time for United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Navanethem Pillay to press the Iranian authorities to accept a visit from the UN special rapporteur on torture, so that he can investigate the allegations of mistreatment in Iranian prisons.”

This week the Tajik family wrote Iran’s head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, that the journalist said during a prison the privisit that he had been “dishonoured” and that he demanded to see his lawyer, Mohammad Sharif, and Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi.

1005 GMT: Oil Squeeze. The New York Times summarises Iran's announcement that it will increase domestic gasoline production by converting two petrochemical plants so they can produce gasoline by processing benzene.

Minister of Oil Masoud Mirkazemi's all-is-well alert was that Iran would become a net exporter of gasoline by 2015. Other scientists say, however, that gasoline from benzene will burn poorly with more impurities than regular gasoline, damaging engines.

0955 GMT: Security Escalation. Aftab News reports that 7000 bases for Basij militia are to be constructed, including 100 in Zanjan Province.

0930 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Add Australia to the list of countries ramping up restrictions on Tehran. Following the UN, US, and European Union measures, Canberra has tightened restrictions on Iranian oil and gas groups and companies for the first time and has banned trade of weapons and related material, including anything that could be used for development of nuclear, missile, chemical or biological capability.

0755 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Mr Verde, considering the significance of a speech by Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, "Twisting & Turning to Prove the Leader is Supreme".

0600 GMT: While we catch up with "other" news, we open today with a feature, "How 'Ahmadinejad v. Paul the Octopus' Became a Global Showdown".

The President may also want to take note of a recent poll conducted by the Iranian Student Polling Agency in which 56 percent of participants believe his popularity has declined over the past year while only 22 percent believe it has increased.

As readers know, we are cautious about any poll carried out inside Iran, but the ISPA, which surveyed 1172 people is is linked to Jahad Daneshgahi, an academic body which in turn is overseen by the Supreme Council for Cultural Revolution, headed by President Ahmadinejad.

Two-thirds of the respondents in the poll believe that dissatisfaction with the government remains widespread, if largely covert. Only 18% think that the government was able to control post-election protests.

Perhaps the most striking finding, however, is this: 80% said that economic issues such as inflation, lack of affordable housing, and unemployment are their main priorities. Lack of political and social freedoms was named by only 7%, weakening Islamic values concerned 6%, and international threats such as military attacks or economic sanctions was cited by 4% percent.

Middle East Inside Line: Arab League & Israel-Palestine, British PM on Gaza "Prison Camp", Separation Fence Scandal

Thorny Road to Direct Israel-Palestine Talks: Arab League Foreign Ministers are meeting today in Cairo.

Talking to Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Moratinos in Jerusalem on Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that continuing the construction freeze on West Bank settlements would be impossible politically and would bring down the coalition.

A Palestinian official told Reuters, "Abbas will tell [the Arab League] that, until this moment, there is nothing to convince us to go to direct talks.”

Israel-Palestine: Abbas’ Conditions, Netanyahu’s “Eastern Front” Response

Haaretz claims from Palestinian sources that Abbas will seek unequivocal clarifications from the US that the framework for direct talks will include a declaration that the Palestinian state will be based on the borders of 4 June 1967, with adjustments will be based on agreed exchanges of territory. The PA also wants an Israeli declaration that the construction freeze on settlements will continue and that building in East Jerusalem will stop.

Israeli cabinet minister Isaac Herzog (Labor Party) summarizes the dilemma of a "chicken-and-egg" situation. Talking to Israel Radio, he said:

Abu Mazen (Abbas) says: "I don't want to enter direct negotiations until I know what the final result will be."

Netanyahu says: "Enter direct negatiations and I will also tell you what the final result will be."

Each one looks at it opposite, and we are in a sort of political trap.

Britain's Cameron in Turkey, Comments on Gaza: British Prime Minister David Cameron made his first official visit to Turkey, warning European countries about anti-Muslim prejudice and the slow pace of accession talks with Turkey. He told Turkish businessmen:

When I think about what Turkey has done to defend Europe as a NATO ally and what Turkey is doing now in Afghanistan alongside European allies, it makes me angry that your progress towards EU membership can be frustrated in the way it has been. I believe it's just wrong to say Turkey can guard the camp but not be allowed to sit inside the tent.

Cameron's counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan called Israel’s raid on the Freedom Flotilla an act of “piracy” and compared Israeli officials to Somali pirates. Cameron said that the incident was “completely unacceptable” and called for a speedy and transparent Israeli inquiry into the incident. Cameron also sharpened his tone on Gaza:

The situation in Gaza has to change. Humanitarian goods and people must flow in both directions. Gaza cannot and must not be allowed to remain a prison camp.

The Israeli embassy in the U.K. responded to Cameron quickly:

The people of Gaza are the prisoners of the terrorist organization Hamas. The situation in Gaza is the direct result of Hamas’ rule and priorities.

We know that the Prime Minister would also share our grave concerns about our own prisoner in the Gaza Strip, Gilad Shalit, who has been held hostage there for over four years, without receiving a single Red Cross visit.

Separation Fence Scandal: EA has already reported that Walajeh, a village in the Bethlehem Governorate 8.5 kilometres (5.3 miles) to the southwest of Jerusalem, is in danger of being cut off from the rest of Palestinian lands, leaving 2,000 villagers encircled by Israeli settlements, roads, and security barriers.

In a court hearing on Sunday, it emerged that the order to expropriate village lands for the fence, which enabled the work to begin, had expired a year ago. However, instead of ordering a halt to the work, the court issued an injunction requiring the state to explain within 45 days why construction should not be stopped.

The Society for the Protection of Nature in Israel and Palestinian villagers say that since the injunction was issued, the Defense Ministry and the contractors have been working much faster than before.

The Cost of an Eye: Emily Henochowicz, an Israeli-American studying at the Bezalel Academy of Art in Jerusalem, lost her left eye when Border Guards fired a tear gas canister during a demonstration following the raid on Freedom Flotilla.

According to Henochowicz, one policeman shot a canister directly at her face. Haaretz says that one of its reporter also witnessed the incident.

Following her treatment in Jerusalem, her father was handed a bill for NIS 14,000 (around $3,600). The Ministry of Defense refused to pay, claiming the tear gas was not fired directly at Henochowicz. The statement accused Henochowicz of putting herself at risk by voluntarily participating in a breach of the peace and accused:

From our reports, we know that the Border Police acted in accordance with the law at the violent demonstration at Qalandia, and that the shooting of tear gas canisters at demonstrators was justified. Of course, we regret that Emily Henochowicz was wounded in her eye. But under such circumstances, the Defense Ministry does not cover the expenses of medical treatment.

Afghanistan: After the Wikileaks "Petraeus to Stop Corruption" (Partlow)

We've had the first phase of stories following the appearance of the 91,000 Wikileaks documents: hostility to US troops amongst villagers, even when they hate Taliban; claims of support by Pakistani intelligence services and military for Afghan insurgents; claims of support by Iran for the insurgents (countered by some analysts); revelations that some of those fighting US and NATO forces are coming in from Turkey, a member of NATO; the far-from-surprising news that the US media has been paying Afghan media to run "friendly" stories; the assertion of financial and political misdeeds by Afghan officials

Now the next phase: the US military trying to walk hand-in-hand with the media to counter a damaging story. Although Joshua Partlow of The Washington Post may have been developing this piece before the arrival of the Wikileaks documents, the timing of its appearance is more than a little interesting.

Afghanistan: What Did Wikileaks Reveal? What I Wrote in Kabul in 2005 (Shahryar)
Afghanistan: Why Wikileaks Should Not Be Plugged (Dissected News)

But there is a question, unasked in the article: since the media has featured for years the assurances of US military and politicians that they are combating corruption in Afghanistan with the outcome of "good governance", what makes this good-news prediction of an article --- even if it is headlined by the name "Petraeus" --- any different?

Partlow's article:

Every day, Gen. David H. Petraeus meets with senior NATO officials at headquarters for a 7:30 a.m. update, and at nearly every session, he returns to an issue that has bedeviled the U.S. campaign for years: Afghan corruption.

In his first month on the job, Petraeus has intensified efforts to uncover the scope and mechanics of the pervasive theft, graft and bribery in the Afghan government, examine U.S. contracting practices, and assist Afghan authorities in arresting and convicting corrupt bureaucrats, according to U.S. and NATO officials.

"It is his drumbeat that he started on Day One," said a NATO military official who participates in the morning "stand-up" meeting. Petraeus sees corruption "as an enemy. It is counter to our strategy. And it is readily apparent to me . . . there is a new sense of urgency."

The issue was also a central concern for Petraeus's predecessor, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, as the U.S. military has come to realize that its counterinsurgency goals depend on fighting corruption. NATO surveys have found that anger at corruption is the top reason Afghans support the Taliban over the government.

From police shakedowns to profits from drug trafficking, NATO officials put the yearly price tag of corruption and black-market business at $12.3 billion, just shy of Afghanistan's gross domestic product. Citing U.N. statistics, they estimate that about half of that comes from the smuggling industry and illicit taxes levied on trucks crisscrossing the country. About $2.5 billion is paid in bribes each year, stolen Afghan government revenue tops $1 billion, and billions more is pilfered from foreign aid and NATO contracts, according to a briefing prepared by NATO's anti-corruption task force.

"It has progressively gotten worse. It's at all levels," said one senior NATO official who works on corruption issues. Reversing the situation is "a moral imperative, and it's an operational imperative."

The NATO officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

Turning up the pressure

Petraeus has asked his subordinates to brief him more often on progress on this front -- twice a week, instead of once -- and is considering naming a one-star general to oversee anti-corruption work. In his first three weeks in Afghanistan, Petraeus has met with President Hamid Karzai at least 20 times, and corruption has been a regular topic of discussion, the NATO officials said.

In addition to fielding two new teams in Afghanistan to study how American money is spent through reconstruction and security contracts, the U.S. Embassy in Kabul is preparing a proposal that would require the Afghan government to meet anti-corruption benchmarks to receive U.S. funds.

"We expect they will live up to their commitments, and we will give them incentives to live up to their commitments," a Western diplomat said.

Read rest of article....

Iran Analysis: Twisting & Turning to Prove the Leader is Supreme (Verde)

On Wednesday we noted a speech by Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, but our takeaway line was his "conspiracy theory" that the US and Saudi Arabia were paying $1 billion and putting up a bounty of another $50 billion for regime change in Tehran.

Mr Verde has gone through the speech and discovers that the bigger but untold story of Jannati's speech is even more interesting, given its connection with the Supreme Leader's "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa:

There is a lot of mention of God in the speech, with the point being that God has saved the Revolution from its enemies. Jannati says, “God gave up Imam Khomeini” and adds later, “In the same way that he protected Moses from danger, God saved Imam [Khomeini] and the Revolution." He uses the example, "The events of Tabas [the site of the failed attempt by US forces to rescue the US Embassy hostages in 1980] which was help from God, showed that God himself is the protector of the Revolution and this invisible help has been a reoccurring theme in the history of the Revolution”.

Jannati then talks about the attempted assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei in the early 1980s  and says that although al the doctors and Khamenei himself did not believe that he would live, God saved him. He says, “At the time of the passing of Imam Khomeini, God delivered the position of the leader of the revolution to the Supreme Leader [Khamenei], and he was tasked by God to protect this revolution and this regime and to continue the path of [the first Shia] Imam Ali.

Jannati then links challenges past and present to show that God will ensure the Supreme Leader will overcome “in addition to the enormous sedition of 88 [post-2009 election protests], other seditions took place during the leadership of Grand Ayatollah Khamenei too which in some cases came close to overthrowing the regime, but the same God that was the protector of the Revolution in the events of Tabas [1980] again saved the Revolution."

Interpretation

1. Note Jannati's constant references to God's protection of the regime, intervening at time to save it. This could be a sign that regime officials are being forced to rely more on this claim and less on the reassurance that the regime is popular and upheld by the people. It is worth watching for signs of this in speeches by other officials.

2. Jannati uses the title “Grand Ayatollah” for Khamenei. This is not the first time this has occurred, but it may be relevant to the “I am the Rule of the Prophet” fatwa.

3. Jannati's statement that God delivered the leadership to Khamenei supports the Supreme Leader's claim in his fatwa that his authority is like that of the Prophet.

4. Jannati's reference to the post-election protests as “enormous sedition of 88” contradicts the main regime line is that the protestors were few in number and that there never was a crisis.

5. Note Jannati's revelations that the regime was on the brink of overthrow on several occasions during the leadership of Khamenei. As far as I know, this is the first time any regime official has even talked about the possibility of the toppling of the regime, yet alone speak of "several occasions" and linking this to post-election protests.

6. Jannati's proclamation of the $1 billion "regime change" payment and the promised $50 billion is even more ridiculous than his other declarations. Up to now such claims were about millions of dollars; now it seems the rates have risen sharply.

Afghanistan: Why Wikileaks Should Not Be Plugged (Dissected News)

Dissected News analyses the issue of Afghanistan, Wikileaks, and information on the US conduct of the war:

Julian Assange, founder of Wikileaks, is VERY good at making headlines.  The last two leaks have justified those headlines, however, with the publication of classified information from inside the U.S. military efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan.  (Read an Iraq War veteran’s analysis of the leaked video showing the killing of two reporters in Iraq.)

In the newest wave of leaks, more than 90,000 classified documents pertaining to the war in Afghanistan have been posted. The findings are sprawling: Pakistani intelligence (Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI) is supporting the Taliban, Afghanistan has become a new front for the battle between India and Pakistan, Iran is supporting militants on its border, the Karzai government is corrupt, the U.S. military has killed too many civilians, and the militants now have access to some heat-seeking missiles… in short, the war is a mess.

Afghanistan: After the Wikileaks “Petraeus to Stop Corruption” (Partlow)
Afghanistan: What Did Wikileaks Reveal? What I Wrote in Kabul in 2005 (Shahryar)

As my colleague Josh Shahryar points out, not much of this is new information.

We’ve known, for instance, that the ISI supported the Taliban in the leadup to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. We’ve also known that the Indian-Pakastani conflict in the region was complicating the effort in Afghanistan. The problem is that large portions of traditional media sources have largely ignored these developments, and thus the American public is surprised by them.  As a result, no one has been holding the U.S. government accountable for actually fixing any of these problems.

For various reasons, now that this information is coming from leaked United States intelligence, this story is finally being paid attention to. Josh suggests it’s the sexy factor, and he’s probably right.

And this is why we need people like Julian Assange.

Not that Wikileaks doesn’t have its detractors. Many people, including Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), have condemned him for endangering national security, as well as the life and well being of people on the ground in places like Afghanistan. Assange, a zealot for the freedom of information and the American first amendment, has himself admitted that Wikileaks may wind up with “blood on our hands,” but he is convinced that the campaign for transparency will be worth the price. I’m not arguing that this point of view isn’t extreme, Assange is as radical as they come, and I’m certainly not arguing that the ones who are leaking this material haven’t broken the law (at least) and possibly their oaths of office and allegiance.

But with a situation as complicated and covered up as the developments in a place like Afghanistan, how are the common citizens of the world supposed to know what’s going on if the mainstream media doesn’t spend the resources to cover these stories, and the only ones with access to this information are under a sworn oath to keep the information secret?

Much has been made about a Washington Post report that over 800,000 people have “top secret” clearance in the U.S. intelligence circle.  Part of the problem is that there is this massive-yet-insulated community of people making our policy. If so many of our linguists (a limited and precious commodity that our educational system is failing to produce), analysts, and experts are included in this group, then a massive part of the expertise of this country is inside of the veil of secrecy. In other words, the few people who do have expertise on this part of the world have their voices shut off to anyone not inside the administration.

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