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Thursday
May202010

Iran Videos: Former Diplomat Heidari Reveals the Regime

Earlier this year, Mohammad Reza Heidari, the Iranian Consul in Norway, became the highest-ranked Iranian diplomat to resign over the post-election conflict. This week he spoke with Channel 4 of Britain about his decision, the concerns over his security and that of his family, and the politics of the Iranian regime.

Heidari's interview in in Persian and a shorter statement from Heydari's son Arian are also posted on the Channel 4 website:

Iran Interview: The Diplomat Who Resigned Over the Election (29 April)


Wednesday
May192010

US Politics Video: Campainin' in Sweet Home Alabama

Sometimes I am mighty proud to call myself an Alabama boy. This is not one of those times.

First, the real campaign video from Dale Peterson, who is running for Agriculture Commissioner on a platform of love for his horse, a defence of family farms, and a promise to shoot "illegals". Then the not-so-real (but necessarily so humourous) version from Funny or Die.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jU7fhIO7DG0&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Politics in America: The Tea Parties & The Religious Right (Haddigan)




Wednesday
May192010

The Latest from Iran (19 May): Fallout

2035 GMT: The Uranium Sideshow. President Obama issued a boiler-plate, stay-the-course statement at a press conference alongside President Felipe Calderon of Mexico (which happens to have a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council):

"[We agree] on the need for Iran to uphold its international obligations or face increased sanctions and pressure, including UN sanctions. And I'm pleased that we've reached an agreement with our P5-plus-1 partners on a strong resolution that we now have shared with our Security Council partners.

Obama did not mention, for he was not asked, why he had encouraged Turkey to pursue talks with Iran leading to the uranium swap agreement in Tehran on Monday.

1845 GMT:Political Prisoner Watch. Housewife Masoumeh Yavari has been given a seven-year jail term at Rajai-Shahr Prison in Karaj. Yavari had been accused of "mohareb" (war against God), and the prosecutor had asked for the death penalty.

Zahra Jabbari, married and the mother of one child, has been sentenced to 4 years in prison. Jabbari was arrested during Qods Day protests on 18 September.

Student Activist Mohammad Yousef Rashidi has been handed a one-year jail term.

NEW Iran’s Uranium: Why Can’t the US Take Yes for an Answer? (Parsi)
NEW Iran’s Uranium: Washington “Can’t Afford to Look Ridiculous”, Makes Ridiculous Move (Emery)
NEW Iran’s Uranium: US Shows a Middle Finger to Tehran…and Turkey and Brazil and… (Gary Sick)
NEW Iran Document: Iranian Labour Unions “This is Not 1979″
Iran Analysis: Washington and the Tehran Nuclear Deal (Parsi)
Iran Alert: Filmmaker Firouz Faces Deportation From UK
Iran Analysis: The Contest at Home Over (and Beyond) the Uranium Agreement (Zahra)
Iran Analysis: Assessing the Tehran Nuclear Deal (Gary Sick)
The Latest from Iran (18 May): Getting Beyond the Uranium Agreement


1700 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The Revolutionary Court in Tehran has sentenced student and women's rights activist Bahareh Hedayat to 9 ½ years in prison: six months for insulting the president, two years for insulting the Leader, five years for anti-state and anti-national security actions, and two years, previously suspended, for organizing a gathering in June 2006.


Milad Asadi, another senior member of the alumni organisation Advar-e Tahkim Vahdat, has been sentenced to 7 years in prison.

Bahareh Hedayat's statement for Iran's National Student Day in December 2009:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtUvxtH00Lc[/youtube]

1200 GMT: The Uranium Battle. Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's atomic energy agency, has issued the highest-level reaction to the US pursuit of a sanctions resolution at the United Nations, "They won't prevail and by pursuing the passing of a new resolution they are discrediting themselves in public opinion."

0940 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Masoud Heidari, the former head of the Iranian Labour News Agency,was released from prison on Tuesday. On Sunday, Heidari had begun serving a three-month prison sentence.

0840 GMT: Alice-in-Wonderland Media Statement of Day. I guess the editors of The New York Times have not paid any attention to the events of the last 72 hours:
Brazil and Turkey should join the other major players and vote for the Security Council resolution. Even before that, they should go back to Tehran and press the mullahs to make a credible compromise and begin serious negotiations.

0830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Tahereh Saeedi, the wife of detained film director Jafar Panahi, has told Rah-e-Sabz that her husband has been on hunger strike since Sunday.

Panahi has demanded access to his lawyer, visits by his family, and an unconditional release until a court hearing is held.

Six journalists and cultural activists --- Mahnaz Karimi, Hafez Sardarpour, Mehdi Zeynali, Nader Azizi, Mustafa Jamshidi, and Ramin Jabbari --- were arrested on Monday in Iranian Azerbaijan.

0820 GMT: Shutting Down the Inquiry. Parleman News writes that a reformist proposal to investigate Iran's prisons has been rejected by the Parliament. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani insists that the Majlis continues to observe prisons and has forwarded a report to the National Security Council.

0815 GMT: Claim of Day (No, It's Not about Uranium). Rah-e-Sabz claims new accusations of impropriety against Mohammad Javad Larijani, a high-ranking official in the judiciary. The website asserts that a deal has been struck: Ahmadinejad will not press a corruption case against Larijani, while the official and his powerful brothers will drop charges against First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi.

0810 GMT: And There's Always a "Terrorism" Story. Press TV features a summary of its interview with Abdolmalek Rigi, the captured leader of the Baluch insurgent group Jundullah: "While in Morocco, suspected Israeli or US agents had given him a list of people to assassinate in Tehran."

0755 GMT: Evaluating the Uranium/Sanctions Story. We have three analyses of the US response to the Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement: Trita Parsi asks why Washington cannot take Yes for an answer, Chris Emery suggests it is because the US feels it "cannot afford to look  ridiculous", and Gary Sick thinks Washington just showed the middle finger not only to Tehran but to Turkey, Brazil, and a lot of other countries.

The Washington Post has posted a copy of the sanctions resolution introduced by the US into the United Nations Security Council.

0635 GMT: Nuclear Spin of Day. Peyke Iran tries an different angle to attack the Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement. The website claims that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip is angry about his reception in Tehran: he and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva were offered an Iranian breakfast of sangak bread, Bulgarian white cheese, walnuts, and inferior dried fruit.

0630 GMT: Mousavi's Bodyguard. More manoeuvring over Monday's arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi's head of security, Ahmad Yazdanfar. Khabar Online claims that Yazdanfar "withdrew" from his position, and the story that he was detained is a fiction of the "leaders of sedition" and foreign media.

Opposition outlets have responded that Yazdanfar is not "political" at all but a simple security officer. Through his arrest and the kidnapping, terror, and torture of others, the Government is slowly becoming a terrorist group.

0615 GMT: Iran's Debate on the Tehran Deal. The Government is still facing some opposition to the Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement. From the conservative wing, Ahmad Tavakoli (and possibly, through indirect means, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani) made challenges on Tuesday. On the reformist side, Darius Ghanbari asked why Iran had waited seven months and expended so much capital in its foreign policy, only to move towards an agreement it could have had in October.

The response of pro-Government politicians is that this is only a "declaration", not a "treaty", so Tehran has not entered any binding commitments. Or, as Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said, "If the Vienna Group (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, China) accepts Iran’s terms and conditions...both parties commit themselves to the implementation” of the deal."

(Which means that Washington's response --- throwing out any consideration of the agreement in favour of a sanctions-first approach --- has sheltered the Ahmadinejad Government against its internal opponents.)

0530 GMT: For many observers, the nuclear sideshow will remain the main event today. The Obama Administration pretty much guaranteed that when, despite the Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement on a procedure for a uranium enrichment deal (and despite the small fact that President Obama appears to have encouraged the Turks to pursue the deal --- more on that later), Secretary of State Hillary Clinton loudly and not very politely announced that the US was proceeding with a sanctions resolution in the United Nations.

The resolution was submitted in the late afternoon, so now we will be treated to a lot of posturing on all sides, possibly obscuring this bottom-line assessment, courtesy of the National Iranian American Council: "This is an unbelievably stupid move on the part of the Obama administration. Not only are we rejecting our own terms of the agreement, but we are doing so in as tactless and diplomatically insulting way possible."

Meanwhile, on the centre stage of Iranian politics....

Containing Mousavi

Muhammad Sahimi offers a concise summary of the latest steps by the Government to intimidate Mir Hossein Mousavi ahead of the election anniversary on 12 June, including the arrest of Mousavi's top bodyguard.

The Labour Front

We have posted, in a separate entry, the statement of the Network of Iranian Labor Unions setting out its view of opposition to the Government, "This is Not 1979".

Iran Labor Report posts an overview of recent workers' protests.
Wednesday
May192010

UPDATED Thailand Latest: Fires and Curfew in Bangkok 

UPDATE 1425 GMT: The overnight curfew, announced on TV channels under control of the Government, has been extended to 21 provinces across Thailand. There have been arson attacks and protests in at least seven provinces, including the burning of town halls in three major cities.



Fighting has continued in Bangkok, notably outside the Wat Patum temple.

UPDATE 1155 GMT: Associated Press summarises that fires were set at the Stock Exchange, several banks, the headquarters of the Metropolitan Electricity Authority, the high-end Central World shopping mall, and a cinema complex that collapsed.

Thailand Latest: Protestors Ready for Talks? (Fuller/Mydans)


Four protesters and an Italian news photographer were killed and about 60 people wounded in the Army's storming of the protest camp.


UPDATE 1055 GMT: Central World, Southeast Asia's second-largest department store, has been destroyed.

UPDATE 0945 GMT: Far from stopping the protests, the request of the surrendering Red Shirt leaders seems only to have prompted a spread of fighting. There are reports of at least five fires; among the buildings attacked are the Stock Exchange and Channel 3 Television. Residents are trying to flee deluxe apartment complexes.

Authorities have declared a curfew from 8 p.m. local time.

UPDATE 0735 GMT: Thai television has shown several Red Shirt leaders addressing a crowd in Lumpini Park, the centre of the protests, calling off the demonstration to avoid further bloodshed. The leaders said they would turn themselves in to Thai authorities.

---

Al Jazeera English posts the latest news from Bangkok:

Thai soldiers and armoured carriers have punched through barricades and moved into the main encampment of anti-government protesters in Bangkok.

Al Jazeera's Wayne Hay, reporting from inside the breached protest site on Wednesday, said the well organised and well armed troops moved quickly through the first kilometre of the protest site, towards the main stage where the leaders of the so-called red shirts were believed to be.

But they then stopped about a kilometre from the stage amid some exchange of gunfire with red shirt guards.

At least two bodies – suspected to be killed red shirt guards - were seen being removed from the area, our correspondent said, and the Thai Red Cross has appealed for blood donations.

Jongjet Aoajenpong, the director of Police hospital, was quoted by the AFP news agency as saying that an Italian journalist was shot in the stomach and "died before arriving at the hospital".

Red shirts divided

Al Jazeera's Aela Callan, also reporting from Bangkok, said women and children were still in the 3-sq-km protest area.

But the area in front of the stage appeared to be thinning out, she said, and protesters and leaders appeared divided: some seemed to want to fight the troops but others were just sitting on the ground, waiting to see what would happen.

There were also reports that at least one of the red shirt leaders had fled the scene but they could not be immediately confirmed.

About 100 soldiers armed with automatic rifles and shotguns, along with several machine gun mounted armoured personnel carriers, breached the red shirts' barricade at the southern end of their protest site on Wednesday.

The armoured vehicles had repeatedly rammed the barricade made up largely of tyres, sharpened bamboo poles and razor wire before breaking through the flattened structure.

Troops and red shirts had been periodically exchanging gunfire before the soldiers broke through the barricade.

The military appeared to be moving slowly in their operation, and it was possible that they were leaving the north relatively open for red shirts to leave their encampment.

Earlier in the morning, troops used loudspeakers to tell protesters at the protest site in Bangkok's high-end Rachaprasong shopping district to go home, saying their lives were in danger, our correspondent said.

Guerrilla war warning

Sean Boonpracong, a red shirt spokesman speaking to Al Jazeera from Bangkok, warned that if the troops entered the protest site, "this will be a second Tiananmen Square", referring to China's deadly crackdown on demonstrators in 1989.

"You will see the biggest massacre ever aired on television," he said.

And Thaksin Shinawatra, the ousted Thai prime minister whom many of the red shirts support, said on Wednesday that he feared a military crackdown could lead to guerrilla warfare across the country.

"There is a theory saying a military crackdown can spread resentment and these resentful people will become guerrillas," Thaksin told the Reuters news agency by telephone.

Government claims success

The government said hours after launching the offensive on Wednesday that the "security operation ... has been successful".

Panitan Wattanayagorn, a government spokesman, also said on television that protest leaders had fled the area, and called on citizens to report protest leaders if they were spotted outside the camp.

But one of the protest leaders, Nattawut Saikua, appeared on stage in the protest zone several minutes before Panitan spoke and said he had not fled.

The government offered safe passage to unarmed, civilian protesters after moving into the protest camp and said buses were waiting to send them home.

Soldiers were heard shouting that protesters' lives were in danger if they did not surrender.

The authorities had warned the red shirts to leave their protest site by 3 p.m. (0800 GMT) on Monday, saying that those who remained faced two years in prison.

However, the protesters defied the order and the deadline passed without any action being taken.

Wednesday's military operation comes after the government rejected holding further negotiations with the red shirts until they left their rally site.

A mediation proposal, floated by a group of 64 senators in the 150-member upper house on Tuesday, was accepted by the protesters but rejected by Abhisit Vejjajiva, the prime minister.

Satit Wonghnongtaey, a government minister, said while Abhisit welcomed negotiations, the government insisted "talks will happen only after the protest has ended".

The crisis, which began when demonstrations were launched in mid-March, has now left around 70 people dead and about 1,700 wounded.
Wednesday
May192010

Iran's Uranium: Why Can't the US Take Yes for an Answer? (Parsi)

Trita Parsi writes for ABC News:

A noticeable irritation can be sensed in Washington. After months of investing in a new UN Security Council resolution and an escalation of the conflict and apparently winning agreement among the permanent members of the council for such a measure two emerging powers had the audacity to intervene and find a solution. Brazil and Turkey should keep their expectations low, however, because there will not be any thank you party for them in Washington anytime soon.

Iran’s Uranium: Washington “Can’t Afford to Look Ridiculous”, Makes Ridiculous Move (Emery)
Iran’s Uranium: US Shows a Middle Finger to Tehran…and Turkey and Brazil and… (Gary Sick)


Only two days after the announcement of the Brazilian-Turkish brokered deal with Iran that would see 1,200 kg of Iran's low enriched uranium shipped out of the country, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told a Senate panel that the United States and its partners seeking new sanctions against Iran have come up with a draft proposal for a new round of penalties. UN Ambassador Susan Rice held a press conference at the UN today unveiling the new resolution.



A day earlier, State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley spoke dismissively about the Brazilian-Turkish deal. "The United States continues to have concerns about the arrangement. The joint declaration does not address core concerns of the international community," Crowley said, "Iran remains in defiance of five U.N. Security Council resolutions, including its unwillingness to suspend enrichment operations." Crowley then went on to link the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR) deal with the Security Council demand for a suspension of Iran's enrichment activities. "Public statements today suggest that the TRR deal is unrelated to its ongoing enrichment activity. In fact they are integrally linked," he said.

These developments have taken many observers by surprise. Linking the TRR deal to suspension of enrichment is a new component it was the White House itself that decided last year to go forward with a deal to swap Iran's LEU for fuel rods without a suspension in order to throw back Iran's break out capability.

Furthermore, the earlier justification for the sanctions push was a reaction to Iran's failure to accept the swap proposal presented to it in October 2009. Administration officials stated on numerous occasions that sanctions would only be pursued if the diplomatic track failed to produce results. Sanctions would be needed to get Iran back to the table and to convince them to accept the deal.

Analysis: Washington Had Sudden Change of Heart


The sudden change of heart in Washington is particularly surprising mindful of the fact that the three objections Iran lodged against the 2009 TRR deal that the LEU needed to be shipped out in one shipment, that the swap would take place outside of Iran, and that the fuel rods would be delivered to Iran nine to twelve months have now all been withdrawn. Iran has agreed to the terms the US insisted on.

This may explain the comments of  Namik Tan, the Turkish Ambassador to the US, to the Associated Press, "We have delivered what they were asking for&If we fail to get a positive reaction it would be a real frustration."

But there are several factors that can shed light on Washington's apparent reluctance to take yes for an answer.

First, the Senate and the House are in the final phase of sending a broad sanctions bill to the President. The bill has several problems from the White House's perspective, including its limitations of Presidential waivers as well as the impact it will have on US allies who will be subjected to these sanctions.

Progress on the UN Security Council track has in the past few months been an important instrument to hold back Congress's own sanctions push. With Congress eager to sanction Iran, particularly now when the Brazilian-Turkish deal conceivably could derail or delay the UN sanctions track, the Obama administration feels the need to pacify the Congressional sanctions track by accelerating the UN sanctions track.

Second, the Brazilian-Turkish deal explicitly recognizes Iran's right to enrichment and would, as a result, eliminate the option of pursuing the zero-enrichment objective. While most analysts agree that the zero-enrichment objective simply isn't feasible, the White House has kept its options open on this issue. It has neither publicly confirmed it as a goal, nor rejected it. This, it has been argued, would provide the US with leverage. Even if it no longer is America's red line, it can still be America's opening position in a negotiation, the argument reads.

Does Washington's Reservations Hurt Obama's Attempt to Assert DC Diplomacy?


Third, there is a sense in the Obama administration that after the events of last year, a nuclear deal with Iran could only be sold domestically if Iran is first punished through a new round of sanctions. Only after a new round of sanctions would there be receptivity in Washington for a nuclear agreement with Iran. Hence, any nuclear deal that comes before a new round of sanctions would complicate the Obama administration's domestic challenges. A deal without punishment even a good deal simply wouldn't be enough.

Understandably, Washington's reaction to the Brazilian-Turkish deal has created some apprehension in the international community. The Obama administration has worked diligently to overcome the credibility gap America developed with the international community under President George W. Bush. One element of this effort was to utilize diplomacy as a premier tool of US foreign policy.

Punitive measures such as war or sanctions would no longer be the instruments of first resort. But the reaction to the Brazilian-Turkish deal may undo some of the progress the Obama administration has achieved with the international community. Washington's lack of appreciation for the breakthrough may fuel suspicions of whether sanctions are pursued to achieve success in diplomacy, or whether diplomacy was pursued to pave the way for sanctions and beyond.