Iran Video: Mr Ahmadinejad Speaks with His Wonderful, Brightly-Coloured Charts

Latest Iran Video: Mehdi Karroubi on the 13 Aban Protests

The Latest from Iran (8 November): Challenge Renewing?

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To ease our disappointment at the non-appearance of President Ahmadinejad's Saturday night speech, cancelled so he could go to Turkey in his role of Leader of the Islamic World, we return to the national address that ensured his victory in the 12 June Presidential election.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKpRk1eS0CM[/youtube]

Iran: An Opposition Renewing, A Government in Trouble

Iran: Question for the Regime “What’s Your Next Punch?”
NEW Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban
Iran’s New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account “I Have Never Seen as Much Violence”
Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
The Latest from Iran (8 November): Challenge Renewing?

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Yesterday we began with two tasks: 1) to see if the regime was really in disarray over its response to the latest challenges of 13 Aban, and 2) to watch for signs of the Green opposition's next move after the marches, given 48 hours of near-silence. Well, we are getting a response to the second question.

Former President Mohammad Khatami resurfaced with a strong statement challenging the legitimacy of the Government and later met Mehdi Karroubi. Today Mir Hossein Mousavi has appeared for the first time since 13 Aban, visiting --- like Khatami did on Friday --- Karroubi advisor Morteza Alviri, who was recently released from detention. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has been interviewed again, criticising detainee abuses and questioning the legal basis of confessions.

Early in the crisis, an EA reader suggested that the Green movement was operating tactically with Mousavi as the political leader, Khatami as the respected figure making criticisms of the Government, and Karroubi as the charismatic cleric who could mobilise the energy of the opposition. Given the difficulties with communication and organisation, as well as the ongoing debate over the next moves of the movement (again, see the excellent discussion amongst our readers), that depiction is probably an aspiration rather than a coordinated approach.

Yet I sense that, far from sapping the strength of the movement, 13 Aban has renewed it. Part of that strength comes from anger at the violence and detentions of Wednesday. But at least part of it is coming from the belief that defeat will not come from the Government's heavy fist. The discussion about "What is to Done?" is being fuelled, I think, by the perception of the opposition that its fate now lies in its own hands, rather than the actions of a Khamenei, an Ahmadinejad, or the Revolutionary Guard.

And that is where Saturday's answer to our first question enters. To be blunt, the President did not address the nation Saturday night. He had not spoken, as initially promised, on the evening of 13 Aban (remember, he decided not to compete with the under-17 World Cup match between Iran and Uruguay). Now, after 24 hours of build-up,  he was stepping away from the podium again, allegedly because of a trip today to Turkey.

But, while Ahmadinejad silenced himself, the disputes continued. The Government is now in an internal fight over not only the nuclear talks but its approach to foreign policy: will engagement with the US be sacrificed, as it appears key conservatives/principlists and possibly the Supreme Leader want, to re-establish the supposed strength of the regime? Parliament is still causing some trouble over the economic programme, and the first signs of the consequences of subsidy reform --- a rise in bread prices --- emerged Saturday. The Revolutionary Guard seems to be in a continued distraction in the aftermath of the Baluchestan bombing.

All of which led to a curiosity of mixed signals yesterday on how to meet the opposition challenge. Having pursued mass detention on Wednesday, the Government appeared to be backing away on Saturday. While prosecutors and police chiefs could not give accurate figures on the number of those arrested, all their public statements points to a softening of position, with the declaration of releases of most of those detained.

And last night, almost unnoticed, confirmation came that two leading reformists, Ali Tajernia and Ebrahim Amini, had been released after months in detention. That overshadowed any announcement of the trials that were supposedly taking place in the Revolutionary Court on Saturday.

I'm now looking for the vapour trails from the President's flight to Ankara. If I don't see them, watch for another update. One that (very cautiously) considers that the President may be in the greatest spot of bother he has encountered since the end of June.

The Latest from Iran (7 November): Regrouping

NEW Iran: Question for the Regime "What's Your Next Punch?"
NEW Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban
Iran’s New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account “I Have Never Seen as Much Violence”
Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
Iran Video: The Tribute to 13 Aban’s Protesters
The Latest from Iran (6 November): The Day After The Day After

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2240 GMT: Confirmation that Ebrahim Amini, of the Etemade Melli party and a close relative of Mehdi Karroubi, has also been released from detention.

2150 GMT: Dr. Ali Tajernia, former MP and senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been released after 140 days in detention.

2145 GMT: Human Rights Activists in Iran has a Farsi-language update on detainees, including the transfer of 95 people arrested on 13 Aban from detention centres to Evin Prison.

2140 GMT: After the arrest of two students of Khaje Nasir University in Tehran, classmates went on hunger strike in front of the cafeteria and chanted, “Allahu Akhbar [God is Great]".

2130 GMT: Confirming indications we had received from EA sources in recent weeks, the Supreme Leader has reinstated Ezatullah Zarghami as head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting for five years.

Zarghami had been considered vulnerable because of regime dissatisfaction with IRIB's output before and after the Presidential election, but a suitable replacement could not be arranged. Khamenei indicated this with a call for Zarghami to "take advantage of successful or unsuccessful experiences of the past five years to help this medium reach a better quality".

2125 GMT: Iran's Internal Nuclear Dispute. Press TV's website is now featuring the anti-talks line taken by high-profile MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi (see 0845 GMT).



1648 GMT: Back-Channel US-Iran Talks? An EA reader has picked up what may be a significant unnoticed story in the nuclear negotiations. Peykeiran claims that President Ahmadinejad's close advisor and chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has secretly met Hooshang Amirahmadi, a US-based academic and the President of the American Iranian Council, in a villa in Gilan Province in northern Iran.

It is unclear why Amirahmadi is representing the Obama Administration and, if so, what message he could be conveying about the discussions on uranium enrichment. If true, however, the meeting would be a clear sign of a split between Ahmadinejad and high-profile conservatives/principlists calling for the deal to be abandoned.

1640 GMT: On the Los Angeles Times' blog "Babylon & Beyond", Borzou Daragahi has highlighted, "Defying supreme leader, reformist Khatami continues to question election" (see 1200, 1400, & 1418 GMT). It will be interesting to see if the Times prints this in Sunday's newspaper, maintaining a focus on Iran after 13 Aban.

One interesting note: Jamaran, where Khatami's remarks first appeared, is owned by the family of the late Ayatollah Khomeini.

1620 GMT: Farhad Pouladi, the Iranian reporter for Agence France Presse detained on 13 Aban, has been freed.

1418 GMT: More on Khatami's Statement (see 1200 GMT). The former President has declared, “Senior authorities should accept that there is a crisis in the country" and allow all views to be expressed freely. He added, "We should find out who are ignoring the law for their own benefit, and those are the ones that should not be at centre of power."

Khatami continued his challenge to the Government as a defence of the true nature of the Islamic Republic:

If we truly return to the rule of law and those who are the guardians of the law don’t interpret the law based on their own personal views and don’t ignore the constitution,...[then the constitution will be the most important reference point. that can create unity in our society despite all the different views

We are still standing firm on our positions....In the Islamic Republic just as we defend Islam we are also defending people’s rights and votes. Those who are ignoring people’s votes and are willing to change them, are strangers to the Revolution and the Islamic Republic.

1408 GMT: And Now the Big News. We wrote earlier this morning that the regime seemed adrift and uncertain in how to respond to 13 Aban, but "tonight the President could try to change all the calculations above with an address to the nation".

Well, he won't because Ahmadinejad's speech tonight is postponed. This may be explained by the sudden announcement that the President is going to Turkey tomorrow (to discuss a re-arranged enrichment deal? --- see 0935 GMT), but pending a major breakthrough on that front, I'm going to read this as confirmation that the Government is a bit more than lost at the moment. This is the second postponement of the speech since Thursday's rallies.

1400 GMT: Regrouping Indeed. Former President Khatami is not just reasserting himself with statements questioning the election and the legitimacy of the Government (see 1200 GMT). He also met Mehdi Karroubi last night in his home.

Nominally, Khatami expressed sorrow and comforted Karroubi about the violence during the 13 Aban rallies, as did Abdollah Nouri, the interior minister in Khatami’s administration, and Bagher Golpaygani , son of the late Grand Ayatollah Golpaygani. But who is to say that other topics were not discussed?

1350 GMT: This is Important, but Why? I'm not sure what to make of this news yet, but Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has traveled to Najaf in Iraq to meet Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and other Shi'a clerics.

No clue yet as to topic of discussions. Earlier in the crisis, Sistani and his son had been in talks with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and Iranian clerics who have been critical of the Ahmadinejad Government. So is Larijani seeking support from Sistani and Iraq-based Ayatollahs to bolster the Government? Or the Supreme Leader? Or the position of the Supreme Leader against Ahmadinejad?

1340 GMT: Iranian activist "PersianBanoo" is updating with latest news on arrests from the 13 Aban protests.

1200 GMT: Khatami Rises. We have noted this week that the former President Mohammad Khatami has been relatively quiet, limiting himself to a general statement yesterday when he visited Karroubi  advisor Morteza Alviri.

Well, Khatami is back with a flourish today, declaring that the biggest "crime" of the current regime is its detachment from the values of the Revolution. And, despite warnings from the Supreme Leader, Khatami has renewed his criticism of the Presidential election.

1150 GMT: The Effect of Subsidy Cuts. Borzou Daragahi reports, from a source in Tehran, that bread prices in the capital have more than doubled.

0950 GMT: We've split off our first update today as a separate analysis, "Question for the Regime: What's Your Next Punch?"

0935 GMT: Is the Nuclear Deal On? High-profile MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi may be declaring the enrichment deal dead (see 0845 GMT), but the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei, is claiming that a compromise may have been found. He told Bloomberg News that Turkey could replace France as the third country involved, shaping the Iranium uranium enriched by Russia into metal plates.

So, is El Baradei just putting out desperate ideas to save the deal or, given that Press TV is featuring his comments, is there a section of the Iranian Government that is still committed to discussions?

0930 GMT: Really, Only 109? Azizollah Rajabzadeh, the head of Tehran police, has said, "Police arrested 109 people who created disorder and disturbed public order and security on the sideline of the rally on Wednesday. Some 62 of the detainees were jailed and the rest were released."

Of course, that number does not include those detained outside Tehran, but it's still a distance from the 400+ reported by Iranian human rights groups. So, presuming that Rajabzadeh has kept the number low, does that indicate: 1) the regime does not want to admit to the scale of the detentions, which would point to the real size of the rallies? 2) the regime is trying to show it was not that repressive, cutting against the image of the "velvet fist" it has been displaying? 3) nobody within the Government is in control of how to handle the outcome of 13 Aban?

0855 GMT: A "Correct" Press TV. We noted that, late on the night of 13 Aban and early the following day, someone at Press TV was putting out stories highlighting the opposition protests rather than those for the Government.

No more. This morning, Press TV's website has a story, "Iran Frees Three Detained Foreigners". We had that news yesterday; what is more significant is the framing of the article: "On Wednesday tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets as part of an annual event to mark the storming of the American embassy in Tehran more than three decades ago."

So that's where the "foreigners" were arrested? Well, it must be, since Press TV --- in contrast to its earlier coverage --- dares not mention the Green rallies that were taking place elsewhere in the capital and throughout Iran.

0845 GMT: Is the Nuclear Deal Off? Iranian Students News Agency is featuring a comment by the head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, “Iran is not to give any of its 1200 kilograms fuel to the other party to receive 20 percent (enriched) fuel and whether gradually or at once, this will not be done and is called off.” Boroujerdi insisted that Iran must and would find another way to get uranium, "Mr [Ali Asghar] Soltanieh [Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency] is in talks to find an approach for the issue.”

Boroujerdi's burying of the Vienna deal for Russia to enrich Iran's uranium follows his speech introducing Friday Prayers, in which he denounced protesters for mouthing the words of the Voice of America.

Iran: Question for the Regime "What's Your Next Punch?"

Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban
Iran’s New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account “I Have Never Seen as Much Violence”
Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
Iran Video: The Tribute to 13 Aban’s Protesters
The Latest from Iran (7 November): Regrouping

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Almost 36 hours after the 13 Aban demonstrations, all is relatively quiet on the surface in Iran. In different ways, both sides threw big punches on Wednesday, and both may be re-assessing before deciding on the next punch.

On 13 Aban, the regime's attempted knockout was to beat and detain. We are now getting a fuller picture of the violence of the security forces, and more than 400 Iranians were taken to detention centers and prisons. Yet we also know that the demonstrations continued late into the night. And the opposition's communications are still running, albeit having to cope with restrictions and disruptions: both the Mousavi website Kalemeh has re-established itself, and the Karroubi website Tagheer was back up after an outage on Friday.

So what is a Government to do? Friday's clue to a response, albeit a hesitant and (it appears) uncertain one, was the Friday Prayer of Ahmed Khatami. Significantly, his normal big rhetorical stick was accompanied this time by the carrot of leniency and "freedom" if protesters repented. That offer was matched during the day by the again hesitant and confused signals from the Tehran Prosecutor's office. While still unable or unwilling to give the number of people detained on Wednesday, Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi declared that "many" had been released and, in particular, noted foreigners who had been freed.

At the same time, the regime was announcing a set of trials, starting today and continuing to Monday. of high-profile reformists detained since the election. So, if there is a coherent strategy, it appears to revolve about splitting the Green movement by giving partial amnesty to those who give up the cause and coming down hard on the "leaders".

The difficulties only need a milli-second to emerge. Have a look at the discussion amongst our readers, some of whom are inside Iran, across various threads. It is fascinating and will give you more information than any mainstream analysis. The debate amongst the "rank-and-file" is not whether to give up, accepting a quieter and less fraught life, but what methods to adopt: civil disobedience or a show of force against the regime's oppressions? In such conditions, the signal of Khatami that some may be forgiven is a whistle in a growing opposition wind.

And there are the leaders. Rafsanjani has now retreated from public views to consider his tactics. Mousavi may indeed be bottled up --- for how long, time will tell. Khatami is cautious. But Karroubi? My growing sense is that he feels he has nothing to lose. And a cleric with charisma and nothing to lose poses a problem that no Government threat can easily remove.

So step up, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Tonight the President could try to change all the calculations above with an address to the nation after 9 p.m. The limited previews, however, give no indication that he will not make a direct response to the events of the last 72 hours. Instead, he will try to take the nation's eyes to the "nuclear question" and offer the vision of information technology. Caught up in a different battle, this one with Parliament over his subsidy reform proposals, he may try reassurances and make demands on the economy.

All of which makes sense but still would be an attempt to work around rather than deal with the challenge. For, if there is a takeaway line from 13 Aban, it is this:

The opposition --- whatever the threats, whatever the inducements --- will not go away.

Iran's New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account "I Have Never Seen as Much Violence"

Iran’s New 13 Aban: A First-Hand Account from the Streets
Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
Iran Video: The Tribute to 13 Aban’s Protesters
The Latest from Iran (6 November): The Day After The Day After

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From Persian Umpire (compare with the account offered by EA's Mr Azadi yesterday):

A strange sentiment crept in me today. A man in his late fifties was beaten by a group of people a meter away from me, and I enjoyed it. While I neither had the urge to join in, nor the time to think about it, the delight I took in seeing this man’s fearful face pushed me to encourage his assailants. I am glad I didn’t. In the mayhem, as he was begging them to stop, and kept yelling “why are you beating me?” I only thought to myself “you must be kidding”. He was a member of the Basij.

I had never seen as much violence perpetrated before me in one day. If another day compares to 13 Aban, it would be the 30th of Khordad, the day after Khamenei gave his gangsters the green light to show no merci to Iranians. 13 Aban was worse, maybe because I stayed on longer, or maybe because it was worse indeed. I had not seen so many security forces concentrated in one area before either. I covered 7-Tir Square, Karim Khan Avenue, Vali-Asr Square and the surrounding area today. Thousands of greens showed, mostly without green signs, and were met with thousands of simians, to whom if one grants the label Homo, their qualifications would not allow them to go any higher than Erectus.



The ape forces had one goal in mind, which was to prevent any crowd from forming. Their strategy: indiscriminate violence. At about 10:30 in the morning, before getting to Vali-Asr Square, we passed by the Beheshti metro station. A group of ten anti-riot IRGC members in camouflage uniforms and wielding batons suddenly rushed the station gate, frightening people who were exiting to flee inside. About seven or eight of the security men ran in while the others shut and held the gates behind them. After that, you could only hear the sounds of screams and thuds. Maybe some greens were among them, maybe not. One was carrying a shopping bag.

Something we have learned in the protests is that when the apes charge, you should avoid running, get on the sidewalk close to shop windows and keep walking, or just stand against the walls. They would normally go past you in pursuit of those who run. Today, the apes would get on the sidewalks on bikes, hold out their batons against the walls and drive on. If they were without bikes, they just ran through and waved their clubs, sticks, or chains. It didn’t matter who or what it hit.

I won’t give a moment-by-moment account of the day. Most of it was an uninterrupted sequence of severe beatings, bruises and blood, from which I remember snapshots. I also remember hearing gunshots on a couple of occasions. Arrests seemed to be indiscriminate as well. We saw Basij members picking on the young randomly, forcing them on their knees, handcuffing and blindfolding them, and then taking them away.

On Vali-Asr Avenue, north of the square, a policeman was shouting insults at an old man for having shown up to the demonstration. A young boy went over to the policeman and handed him a flower, to which his response was to slap the boy and throw him on the sidewalk. The boy picked himself up and left.

In the mayhem, we saw security and Basij forces get beaten up or hit by rocks also. On Karim Khan Avenue close to Vali-Asr Square, an eighteen or nineteen-year-old Basiji, wielding a rubber belt, started chasing a man on the street next to the sidewalk. The man was big and the Basiji was short, chubby, and his beard had barely sprouted. For the first time I saw a technique I’ve read about but difficult to perform, in action. Mid chase, the man suddenly stopped dead, turned around, grabbed the Basiji who was stunned, and slammed him against the side of a car. It took him a few seconds to get up. When he saw a group of people who were now rushing him, he ran, but they got to him and started pummeling him. At this moment, a fifty-something-year-old Basiji with short white hair, the man I mentioned above, appeared from behind a bus and ran toward the scuffle, with the same kind of strap in his hand, attempting to beat and scare the others to get the other Basiji out. Another group of people appeared and charged him. He fell to the ground a meter away from me and started receiving kicks and punches. This is when a group of Basiji apes arrived at the scene, surrounded the two other apes and dragged them away.

Later on, at 7-Tir Square, a Basiji, an older man again, was holding his head and was bleeding profusely. Another was propping him up and helping him cross the square to where their camp was set up.

The demonstration never took the magnitude and concentration of Qods Day. It was never allowed. Everyone was fleeing from the security forces, regrouping in the side streets, or recovering from tear gas and beatings. The largest group of people I saw walking on Karim Khan and chanting anti-government slogans reached two or three hundred people at best. There were pro-government demonstrators who appeared from time to time, with loudspeakers and chanting. The largest of those were a few hundred people. I remember one of their new slogans: “Death to the velvet dictator.” Whatever that means.

Before I go and crash, as I am beat, grimy, and tired, let me tie in 13 Aban with Rafsanjani’s Super Duper Plan. Since its inception and the supposed detente between Rafsanjani and Khamenei, the plan has been viewed by many in Iran as false hope and a ruse by the Supreme Leader to buy time and create diversion at best. 13 Aban was another promise broken, another U-turn, another glimmer of hope faded. We are facing a regime in which reform has no practical representative. Neither the leaders of the green movement, nor Rafsanjani or the Marjas, have managed to get meaningful concessions from the Supreme Leader. What I keep hearing is, “What are they going to say now? More of the same?” 13 Aban has left us no doubt about Khamenei’s desire to utterly crush the opposition. Many in Iran view him as a man who does not negotiate, and the perpetrator of all that has happened since the elections.

Something is abuzz in the air in Tehran tonight. It is angry talk about meeting violence with violence. Patience is running out and I am now hearing about switching to the same language as the opponents. How viable that is, or whether we will go down that road will be determined in the future, but 1979 is before our eyes. Take away hope and it won’t be long before reform will give way to overhaul. So far, some are wondering whether reforms have hit a dead end. “Reconciliation” is a funny word now. Maybe it is just a reaction to a brutal day on the streets, or an existential phase, inevitable after six months of going in circles. But one thing is clear. Early on, the movement’s demand was taking back the votes. Today, it is stomping on the Leader for an “Iranian Republic”. He may succeed in crushing the opposition, but may someone save his soul if he fails.