The Latest from Iran (12 November): Ahmadinejad Moves for Nuclear Deal

NEW Iran: “Regime Change” Conference in Cleveland, Ohio!
Iran Video & Text: The Mousavi Interview with Jamaran (9 November)
Iran: The Story of How Mr Ahmadinejad Met US “Spies”
Iran: Shadi Sadr’s Speech Accepting “2009 Human Rights Defenders Tulip”
The Latest from Iran (11 November): Revelations & Connections

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

1900 GMT: An EA source tips us off to an on-line presentation from last month, "Debating Engagement: A Critical Dialogue on Iran and the Peace Movement".

1820 GMT: Iran's state Arabic-language satellite service Al-Alam is on air again after the French company Eutelsat agreed to carry its programmes. Al-Alam's former providers, the Saudi- and Egypt-based Arabsat and Nilesat, withdrew on 3 November.

1620 GMT: Families of political prisoners have gathered for the third time in front of offices of Iran's judiciary, calling for the release of all political prisoners and demanding the administration of law and justice for all. The families met representatives of the judiciary but failed to get an audience with the head of the judiciary, Sadegh Larijani.

At the end of this gathering, the families asked for the immediate release of those arrested during prayer and of innocent women. They called for “conducting public fair trials”, “allowing the prisoners to have the right of choosing their lawyers and naming those who are obstructing this right”, “identifying those who are putting pressure on some of the post-election prisoners’ families”, and “expediting court hearings and immediate release of those imprisoned with reduced bail".

1545 GMT: Punishing the Protesters. Pictures of orders banning students from their dormitories are now circulating on the Internet.

1535 GMT: For My Next Trick, I Will Solve Traffic Jams. This is either political genius or massive overconfidence: in the midst of conflicts over the economy, the nuclear issues, and his own legitimacy, President Ahmadinejad has declared his urgent priority to clear Tehran's roads: "We have solutions for Tehran and I believe I will soon have to personally intervene in Tehran's issues because I see that the traffic situation is making our citizens suffer."

Go a bit deeper, and you'll find a political battle which is far more than Mahmoud jumping into the middle of the Modarres Expressway to direct traffic. This is another play for power against an opponent within the establishment, in this case, Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer-Qalibaf:

Ahmadinejad went on to say that his administration plans to take over the control of the Tehran Metro Company from the municipality. The remarks came as the Tehran Municipality and government are in disagreement about providing the capital's subway system with state subsidies. The president also called on...Qalibaf and the Tehran City Council to agree with shifting the management of the metro to the government.

1110 GMT: Responsible Journalism? Marc Champion of The Wall Street Journal offers the dramatic story, "Revolutionary Guard Tightens Security Grip":

Seven different agencies have now been subordinated to...the Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, gutting the intelligence ministry of power....The seven agencies include the old intelligence directorate of the Revolutionary Guard, as well as its cyberdefense unit; the intelligence directorate of the Basij; parts of the now-gutted intelligence ministry; Mr. Khamenei's own intelligence unit, known as Office 101; and the plainclothes units and Tehran Revolutionary Guard headquarters tasked with controlling street protests in the capital.he seven agencies include the old intelligence directorate of the Revolutionary Guard, as well as its cyberdefense unit; the intelligence directorate of the Basij; parts of the now-gutted intelligence ministry; Mr. Khamenei's own intelligence unit, known as Office 101; and the plainclothes units and Tehran Revolutionary Guard headquarters tasked with controlling street protests in the capital.

Pretty serious news. Only problem is that Champion's information, initially cited as "interviews with Iranian analysts and opposition figures, along with recent government announcements", turns out to be a single source: Maryam Rajavi of the opposition group National Council for Resistance in Iran.

At no point does Champion note that the NCRI is the political arm of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, the group which for 30 years has sought the overthrow of the Iranian regime through violence and assassinations (he does put the qualification, "The NCRI is listed in the U.S. as a terrorist organization, though not in Europe). And nowhere does he notes that the NCRI --- as the group that he says is "responsible for exposing much of Iran's controversial nuclear-fuel program" --- has also been challenged over the years for providing distorted and inaccurate information.

1100 GMT: More University Protests (see 1000 GMT). Video has come in of yesterday's protest at Khaje Nasir University, where demonstrations have been occurring on a daily basis for more than a week.

1015 GMT: So Much for the Lull --- Ahmadi's Nuclear Push. Press TV summarises President Ahmadinejad's televised interview on Wednesday night as a claim that "the West has retreated in its nuclear dispute with Tehran, as it is no longer talking of suspension of Iran's uranium enrichment activities".

Ahmadinejad, declared, "We have now entered a stage of cooperation. At the moment, one of the key issues is Iran's participation in projects such as the international [nuclear] fuel bank or reactor and plant construction. There is no more talk of suspension. We have reached a stage where we are cooperating, on a high level, with other countries that have the technology through the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)."

Interpretation? This is the clear indication that the President doesn't just want continued nuclear discussions; he's looking for a deal. He is setting up the presentation that an agreement on enrichment in a third country, accompanied by acceptance of Iran into international projects, will be a great "victory" with the West bowing down and recognising Tehran's as a nuclear power. This would be a triumph of Iran's enemies, as "Israelis and a number of Western countries are angry about [the discussions]. They are trying to prevent us from forming cooperation. They want the talks to break down and end in dispute."

So on to the next questions. How do Ahmadinejad's opponents, not just within the reformist movement but within the establishment (Ali Larijani, the ball's in your court) react? Where is Hashemi Rafsanjani? And what does the Supreme Leader say/fail to say in response?

1000 GMT: University Protests. There is now video confirmation of a demonstration at Elm-o-Sanat University (Iran University of Science and Technology) in Tehran. HomyLafayette adds the observation that http://www.iust.ac.ir/ is considered a base of support for President Ahmadinejad and the regime and that the Supreme Leader maintains an office on the campus.

0900 GMT: Catching up on the morning headlines in Iranian state media, it appears they have uncovered a nasty plot to overthrow the Iranian system coming out of the revolutionary hotbed of Cleveland, Ohio. We've got the story.

0745 GMT: A quiet start to the day. There is little political movement from either the Government or the opposition. It appears that President Ahmadinejad's immediate priority is to get Parliamentary approval of his proposals for subsidy reform, with the internal tensions over nuclear talks put aside over the last 48 hours.

Meanwhile, surprisingly little follow-up on the Mousavi message on Monday to Jamaran. I am uncertain as to whether this is because knowledge of it inside Iran has been restricted, because the statement has not sparked as much interest as Mousavi's previous declaration, or for another reason. Mehdi Karroubi has been relatively muted in recent days, and other reformist groups have been curbed in their public positions because of Government pressure.

That leaves, it appears, the simmering protest on university campuses to prop up interest and spirits. And, however quiet it may be for the moment, there is always the beacon of 16 Azar (7 December).

Iran: "Regime Change" Conference in Cleveland, Ohio!

The Latest from Iran (12 November): Lull

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

So you want to know where the "velvet revolution" is being planned? Look no farther than the secret plots being openly discussed at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio.

That's the headline "exclusive" in Iranian state media this morning, as the Islamic Republic News Agency declares that various academics, activists, Jews, and troublemakers assembled this week for a conference on "Baha'i Unity".

I'm still not sure how discussions of a minority religious group, often pressured and prosecuted by Iranian authorities, adds up to an imminent threat of regime change, but the article presses on with a description of each of the speakers. Amongst the speakers are Patrick Clawson of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Barry Rubin of the Gloria Center in Herzliya, "occupied Palestine", Rabbi Eric Lankin of the Jewish National Fund, and Elihu Richter of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

For IRNA, however, the tip-off that this is a serious attempt at destabilisation comes in the presence of Jackie Wolcott, the State Department's Special Envoy for Nuclear Nonproliferation and her speech, "Iran and nuclear weapons proliferation". (Again, I personally would not design a velvet revolution by openly featuring a US Government official, but hey, I'm just a naive bystander.)

So was this really the nexus of the plot to topple the Iranian regime? The conference's description of itself is not so dramatic with the far-from-exciting title, "The Islamic Republic of Iran: Multidisciplinary Analyses of its Theocracy, Nationalism, and Assertion of Power". Case Western University's public relations unit, trying to drum up attendance, adds a bit of spice, "Issues surrounding Iran have made headlines, and Scholars for Peace in the Middle East will discuss concerns about the developments of nuclear proliferation and other events in Iran when they meet in Cleveland for their two-day conference." I'm not sure, however, that this makes the cut as a Declaration of the Overthrow of the Islamic Republic.

Some of the speakers at the conference are far from objective observers of Iran, and a couple are notable for Iran-bashing as part of pro-Israel activism. Yet, let's be clear, IRNA's primary targets are "reformist journalists" listed on the conference programme. Even thousands of miles away, in the Midwest of the United States, you can't be too complacent about the Green Wave.

The Latest from Iran (11 November): Revelations & Connections

NEW Iran Video & Text: The Mousavi Interview with Jamaran (9 November)
NEW Iran: The Story of How Mr Ahmadinejad Met US "Spies"
NEW Iran: Shadi Sadr’s Speech Accepting “2009 Human Rights Defenders Tulip”
NEW Iran Video Special: Ahmadinejad & Tehran’s “$18.5 Billion in Turkey”
NEW Iran Video Special: When Khamenei Met the US Hostage (and Why It’s Important Now)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Revelations of Hashemi Rafsanjani’s Son
The Latest from Iran (10 November): Uncertainty and Propaganda

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

2110 GMT: Ezatollah Zarghami has celebrated getting a five-year renewal as head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, by alleging that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi are trying to get television airtime to incite people into joining street protests. Zarghami said this would be contrary to IRIB's objectives to "establish a stable social atmosphere" and help "society out of its instability".

1820 GMT: The Economic Issue Rumbles On. In addition to other challenges, President Ahmadinejad is still facing resistance from Parliament over his subsidy reduction bill. He returned from Turkey on Tuesday to go into a meeting with lawmakers, declaring that Iran will emerge as a prosperous nation in five years if the bill is implemented in full.

1815 GMT: Post-election detainee Soheil Navidi Yekta has been sentenced to seven years in jail and 74 lashes.

1800 GMT: More Posturing. The Iranian Government has taken another swipe at France, warning Paris to quiet down over the detention of lecturer Clotilde Reiss, who is under house arrest. A Foreign Ministry spokesman declared, 'The charges against Reiss are documented and therefore there can be no acquittal on grounds of political pressure, and nobody is allowed to tell the relevant judge what to do.

1755 GMT: The Mousavi Interview. We now have the video of Mousavi's comments on Monday, the text of which we posted earlier.

1525 GMT: More Business for the Revolutionary Guard. The BBC reports that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has won a $2.5 billion contract to build a railway route linking the southeastern port of Chabahar to Iran's rail network.

The Guards' engineering wing, Khatam-ol-Anbia, has been awarded Government contracts worth billions of dollars, including the operation of Tehran's Imam Khomeini international airport, and 50 percent of Iran's national telecommunication company was bought by a consortium partly owned by a Revolutionary Guards affiliate fund.

1510 GMT: Crippling the Opposition. In a sign of the effect of Government detentions and intimidation, the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution Organisation party has postponed its annual convention because of restrictions on members. The party's senior members Behzad Nabavi, Feizollah Arab-Sorkhi, and Mostafa Tajzadeh have been detained since June. (English summary)

1500 GMT: We've posted an entry on how a comment in a US blog became the story of how "Mahmoud Ahmadinejad met US spies".

1245 GMT: The "Neda Plot". As part of the ongoing campaign to portray the death of Neda Agha Soltan as a "premeditated scenario" to discredit the Iranian regime, Basij members are being summoned to gather in front of the British Embassy in Tehran to call for the extradition of Arash Hejazi, the doctor who tried to assist Neda after she was shot on 30 June. “Female Basij members are scheduled to congregate in front of the British Embassy on Wednesday at 2 p.m. local time,” Fars News reports.

1050 GMT: We awoke to reports of the hanging of Ehsan Fattahian, sentenced to death for "acting against national security with arms"and "war against God", but refrained from posting pending confirmation. That confirmation has now come from Fars News.

0900 GMT: We have posted the speech of activist Shadi Sadr accepting the "Human Rights Defenders Award" in The Netherlands: "Before the eyes of the people who are now fighting for freedom, democracy and human rights in Iran, one cannot sit at a negotiation table with a dictatorial government to speak about nuclear energy or economic contracts and talk about concrete conditions and at the same time, criticise the state of human rights in Iran through political statements which have no actual guarantee to be put into action."

0840 GMT: Not quite sure what to make of this, amidst stories of Iran's reorganisation of control over its security forces. Press TV reports, "The Leader of the Islamic Revolution has appointed Iran's interior minister as deputy commander of the country's Armed Forces in charge of police forces. In a decree issued by Commander-in-Chief of Iran's Armed Forces Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei on Tuesday, Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar was handed the post of deputy commander."

0800 GMT: A slow-ish start to the day, so EA correspondents have taken the opportunity to make some important political connections in a series of videos.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's put-down of a BBC Persian correspondent, who asked about the rumoured $18.5 billion in gold shifted from Iran to Turkey, may not add much beyond a bit of drama. However, the impassioned speech of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani's son Mohsen at a 17 June meeting offers important insight into the Rafsanjani-Ahmadinejad relationship.

And the footage of the Supreme Leader meeting an American hostage (now the highest-level official ever devoted specifically to Iran affairs in the US State Department) is far more than a nostalgic clip. It may point to the emerging, and special, political "engagement" between Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Obama Administration.

Of course, none of this should eclipse the significance, on the opposition side, of the discussion of Mir Hossein Mousavi's interview with the Khomeini-owned Jamaran website, covering the failings of the Government and the need to restore unity through a return to the Constitution. More than 36 hours after the interview was posted, we have the English translation.

Iran Video & Text: The Mousavi Interview with Jamaran (9 November)

The Latest from Iran (11 November): Revelations & Connections

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

Mir Hossein's interview with Jamaran website, published on Monday:

Part 1 of 3

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNnkV75Pj2w[/youtube]

Part 2 of 3

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6rNYSK2wQE&feature=channel[/youtube]

Part 3

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sJrGpNSU3U&feature=channel[/youtube] of 3

Some have their interests in having a divided society
Taking the fanatic approach will take the country to a dead-end

Currently spreading rumours has become very common. We have some individuals whose case, if they were reviewed by Imam Khomeini’s standards, would be considered very tainted. The regime is accusing the people’s great movement of being linked to traitors. It is in their benefit to increase divisions and cynicism in the society in order to prevent their own cases from being unveiled, while it is in everyone’s best interest to acknowledge people’s rights and create optimism.

I feel that the tendency of power to become totalitarian has led to a structured corruption of power in different branches of the establishment....

Considering Imam Khomeini's viewpoint, unity is not achievable based on political loyalties. The union approved by the Imam is a union that relies on components like national interests and a healthy survival of the Islamic establishment, where your connections to power through family, friendship, and acquaintance do not matter.

One of the issues that was raised during the election was on whatever happened to the $300 billion [of oil revenues]. During the [Iran-Iraq] war, if an issue of financial corruption was raised, it was immediately attended to. The smallest corruptions were magnified to a great degree [due to the ongoing war]. In the past, if there was an issue of a missing $10,000, with no record of its expenditure, this could have caused the fall of the Government. Now, the issue is billions of dollars and nobody seems to care.

If it was the early years of the Revolution, this legislation to provide direction to the subsidies [referring to Ahmadinejad's legislation to remove subsidies from food and energy within 3 years] would not have been raised the way it is now. This legislation is not bad in itself. But [right now] the Government are on the one hand talking about removing all the subsidies, causing gas prices to increase, while on other hand they are refusing a budget to the underground subway system. On one side, people's daily affairs will be interrupted under the pressure of high gas prices, and on the other there is no effort put into public transportation. This would cause serious problems for people.

If it becomes common in a system for people to see that their rights are trampled without any objection, that system will move towards violence and dictatorship.

I sincerely believe that granting multi-billion dollar contract to Sepah [the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps] is neither in the interest of the whole regime nor in the interest of Sepah.

There are individuals who live in this way. I sincerely do not know if they have faith or are religious or not....We have people who have a very corrupt record, if it is viewed with the viewpoint of the Imam. But now the regime says that this great popular movement is all connected to the MKO [Mujahedin-e-Khalq "terrorist" organisation].

The interests of the country is in defining the circle of “insiders” such that there is very little left on the outside [thus allowing almost everyone a voice]. Otherwise, we have to doubt our own behavior. We simply cannot put aside thousands of prominent managers who have served this country.

What is happening these days is that the margins have become bigger than the centre. The centre has become very small....
In these margins, we have many managers and clerics, a few marja’ a [senior clerics], a few ex-presidents, and even an ex-head of Parliament....In a situation like this, those who have remained in the main context have to rely on garrisons because they don’t have the support of such a big margin. And this is what has happened: in order to prevent lapsing into a coma, we became numb and insensitive as if suffering from leprosy.

It is in our country’s interest to agree on a fundamental and important matter: the Constitution. You and I may have differences of opinion but we have to agree on the Constitution to solve our problems. We should put aside our differences and attempt to reform.

The people who participated in the revolution didn’t come to the scene to face so many problems. They came for a better life and for freedom.

Iran: The Story of How Mr Ahmadinejad Met US "Spies"

The Latest from Iran (11 November): Revelations & Connections

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

On Monday we reported the curious tale that a conservative Iranian politician had claimed in an interview that President Ahmadinejad -- presumably unwittingly --- had met US "spies", posing as journalists and scholars, in one of his meetings in New York. Gary Sick, the former US Government official who is now an academic at Columbia University, follows up:

In [a post] on October 26 I denounced the fact that my fellow academic Kian Tajbakhsh was sentenced to 15 years in prison in Iran, in part because he had met with me and because I was falsely accused of being a CIA agent. I commented ironically:

I have been in meetings with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on four different occasions over the past three years. I have spent at least nine hours with him, much more than I ever spent with Kian….Iranian security officials are notably lacking in any sense of irony or humor. But I do wonder whether President Ahmadinejad is being considered for indictment because of his extensive contacts with me over the past four years.

I have now discovered that my words have proved truer than I could ever have imagined.

[On 9 November] it was reported by Scott Lucas’ blog Enduring America that the Iranian Labor News Agency features an interview with conservative activist Mojtaba Shakeri, who says that some of the journalists and scholars who met with Ahmadinejad, presumably during the President’s trip to New York, were undoubtedly CIA operatives. This in turn was picked up by the opposition press, which is accusing Ahmadinejad of consorting with CIA agents.

My ironic comment seems to have been transformed into a straight-faced criticism of Mr. Ahmadinejad with an utter disregard not only for the truth but also for any appreciation of the humor of the accusation.

It is impossible to parody a system that constantly parodies itself by its actions and words.