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Entries in Iran (116)

Sunday
Nov082009

UPDATED Iran Video & Translation: Mehdi Karroubi on the 13 Aban Protests

Iran: An Opposition Renewing, A Government in Trouble
Iran: Question for the Regime “What’s Your Next Punch?”
NEW Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban
Iran’s New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account “I Have Never Seen as Much Violence”
Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
The Latest from Iran (8 November): Challenge Renewing?

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A translation by Josh Shahryar follows the video:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayrQJRy8Jrs[/youtube]

One of the most important happenings that took place after the revolution was the takeover of the American Embassy, both for those who supported it and those who opposed it. Annually, actions were taken to commemorate this event. This year, keeping in mind the current situation in the country, some political groups made announcements, and I also announced that I would come to 7 Tir Square and from 7 Tir would go towards the [American] Embassy. I had especially told the masses that, wherever subversive slogans were chanted, I would stop there so that people would not chant these slogans and those who do could be separated from me.

When we reached Hafte Tir, there were police there and they were treating people very violently. I stopped because I thought maybe they would rethink their actions and, because of my participation, at least allow me to cross through [their lines]. But to the contrary, they became more violent and even struck my guards with batons, injuring two of them. They even threw tear gas [at us] that was very strong and powerful which caused the masses to disperse, and some were facing suffocation. We got back in the vehicle and turned back, and on our way back we witnessed violence against women which was very cruel.

Why did this have to happen? These people were going to come and gather round the Embassy. Some would say “Death to America”, and some might have not said that and said something else like “Islamic Republic”, but we would have tried so that they wouldn’t chant subversive slogans.

But the question I have is more important and it is the dual policies of the Islamic Republic, "Dome Khoroos of Qasame Abbas" [a Persian proverb that illustrates the situation]. The Islamic Republic until recently was always striving to change its policy. They would congratulate and send letters [to America], which wouldn’t even receive replies but [the Iranians] would still try to continue the debate. I cannot read this statement here, so I invite my dear viewers and listeners to read it. It is a discussions by Mir Tajuddini, the representative of the people of Tabriz, and has been published after his trip [abroad] in an Iranian newspaper. He says that there was a meeting where around 50 important American personalities, including politicians, academics and reporters and analysts, met the President. "We were present in the meeting which lasted for over two hours and we had a good discussion."

I as a political participant say that, if such a meeting had been held in the past 20 years at any time during any Government, most certainly Kafanposhan [protesters who wear white cloth in which dead bodies are wrapped by Muslims before they are buried] would have come out to the streets in Qom, Tabriz, and Tehran especially, and they would have firmly fought against this. Now how is it so that when such meetings and discussions are now held, they bring about no complications and daily newspapers like Keyhan and others do not even discuss it and no one raises any objections? But now [on 13 Aban] what has really happened for all this renewed anti-American sentiment, anti-American slogans and Anti-American propaganda?

I neither say that such slogans should be chanted or should not be chanted. What I want to say is that the national interest of the people of Iran should not be exploited by us within the Government every day, based on our analyses which are kept secret and are not revealed to the public.

In one meeting, they sit with 50 Americans and have discussions about Iranian-American relations, Afghanistan, atomic energy, petroleum, and other issues, and then the next day they destroy everything [Karroubi speaks metaphorically --- the English phrase would be they "force things back to square one"]. I feel that these policies would create problems for the situation of our people, and it looks like the government is lost and does not know what to do. And I understand this to be my responsibility to clarify things even if they bring repercussions, for which I do not care. This dual policy is going to erode people’s trust and tomorrow, they will not believe our words. They should not.
Sunday
Nov082009

Iran Video: Mr Ahmadinejad Speaks with His Wonderful, Brightly-Coloured Charts

Latest Iran Video: Mehdi Karroubi on the 13 Aban Protests

The Latest from Iran (8 November): Challenge Renewing?

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To ease our disappointment at the non-appearance of President Ahmadinejad's Saturday night speech, cancelled so he could go to Turkey in his role of Leader of the Islamic World, we return to the national address that ensured his victory in the 12 June Presidential election.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKpRk1eS0CM[/youtube]

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Sunday
Nov082009

Iran: An Opposition Renewing, A Government in Trouble

Iran: Question for the Regime “What’s Your Next Punch?”
NEW Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban
Iran’s New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account “I Have Never Seen as Much Violence”
Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
The Latest from Iran (8 November): Challenge Renewing?


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IRAN 4 NOV 7Yesterday we began with two tasks: 1) to see if the regime was really in disarray over its response to the latest challenges of 13 Aban, and 2) to watch for signs of the Green opposition's next move after the marches, given 48 hours of near-silence. Well, we are getting a response to the second question.

Former President Mohammad Khatami resurfaced with a strong statement challenging the legitimacy of the Government and later met Mehdi Karroubi. Today Mir Hossein Mousavi has appeared for the first time since 13 Aban, visiting --- like Khatami did on Friday --- Karroubi advisor Morteza Alviri, who was recently released from detention. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has been interviewed again, criticising detainee abuses and questioning the legal basis of confessions.

Early in the crisis, an EA reader suggested that the Green movement was operating tactically with Mousavi as the political leader, Khatami as the respected figure making criticisms of the Government, and Karroubi as the charismatic cleric who could mobilise the energy of the opposition. Given the difficulties with communication and organisation, as well as the ongoing debate over the next moves of the movement (again, see the excellent discussion amongst our readers), that depiction is probably an aspiration rather than a coordinated approach.

Yet I sense that, far from sapping the strength of the movement, 13 Aban has renewed it. Part of that strength comes from anger at the violence and detentions of Wednesday. But at least part of it is coming from the belief that defeat will not come from the Government's heavy fist. The discussion about "What is to Done?" is being fuelled, I think, by the perception of the opposition that its fate now lies in its own hands, rather than the actions of a Khamenei, an Ahmadinejad, or the Revolutionary Guard.

And that is where Saturday's answer to our first question enters. To be blunt, the President did not address the nation Saturday night. He had not spoken, as initially promised, on the evening of 13 Aban (remember, he decided not to compete with the under-17 World Cup match between Iran and Uruguay). Now, after 24 hours of build-up,  he was stepping away from the podium again, allegedly because of a trip today to Turkey.

But, while Ahmadinejad silenced himself, the disputes continued. The Government is now in an internal fight over not only the nuclear talks but its approach to foreign policy: will engagement with the US be sacrificed, as it appears key conservatives/principlists and possibly the Supreme Leader want, to re-establish the supposed strength of the regime? Parliament is still causing some trouble over the economic programme, and the first signs of the consequences of subsidy reform --- a rise in bread prices --- emerged Saturday. The Revolutionary Guard seems to be in a continued distraction in the aftermath of the Baluchestan bombing.

All of which led to a curiosity of mixed signals yesterday on how to meet the opposition challenge. Having pursued mass detention on Wednesday, the Government appeared to be backing away on Saturday. While prosecutors and police chiefs could not give accurate figures on the number of those arrested, all their public statements points to a softening of position, with the declaration of releases of most of those detained.

And last night, almost unnoticed, confirmation came that two leading reformists, Ali Tajernia and Ebrahim Amini, had been released after months in detention. That overshadowed any announcement of the trials that were supposedly taking place in the Revolutionary Court on Saturday.

I'm now looking for the vapour trails from the President's flight to Ankara. If I don't see them, watch for another update. One that (very cautiously) considers that the President may be in the greatest spot of bother he has encountered since the end of June.
Saturday
Nov072009

The Latest from Iran (7 November): Regrouping

NEW Iran: Question for the Regime "What's Your Next Punch?"
NEW Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban
Iran’s New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account “I Have Never Seen as Much Violence”
Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
Iran Video: The Tribute to 13 Aban’s Protesters
The Latest from Iran (6 November): The Day After The Day After

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IRAN DEMOS 132240 GMT: Confirmation that Ebrahim Amini, of the Etemade Melli party and a close relative of Mehdi Karroubi, has also been released from detention.

2150 GMT: Dr. Ali Tajernia, former MP and senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been released after 140 days in detention.

2145 GMT: Human Rights Activists in Iran has a Farsi-language update on detainees, including the transfer of 95 people arrested on 13 Aban from detention centres to Evin Prison.

2140 GMT: After the arrest of two students of Khaje Nasir University in Tehran, classmates went on hunger strike in front of the cafeteria and chanted, “Allahu Akhbar [God is Great]".

2130 GMT: Confirming indications we had received from EA sources in recent weeks, the Supreme Leader has reinstated Ezatullah Zarghami as head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting for five years.

Zarghami had been considered vulnerable because of regime dissatisfaction with IRIB's output before and after the Presidential election, but a suitable replacement could not be arranged. Khamenei indicated this with a call for Zarghami to "take advantage of successful or unsuccessful experiences of the past five years to help this medium reach a better quality".

2125 GMT: Iran's Internal Nuclear Dispute. Press TV's website is now featuring the anti-talks line taken by high-profile MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi (see 0845 GMT).



1648 GMT: Back-Channel US-Iran Talks? An EA reader has picked up what may be a significant unnoticed story in the nuclear negotiations. Peykeiran claims that President Ahmadinejad's close advisor and chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has secretly met Hooshang Amirahmadi, a US-based academic and the President of the American Iranian Council, in a villa in Gilan Province in northern Iran.

It is unclear why Amirahmadi is representing the Obama Administration and, if so, what message he could be conveying about the discussions on uranium enrichment. If true, however, the meeting would be a clear sign of a split between Ahmadinejad and high-profile conservatives/principlists calling for the deal to be abandoned.

1640 GMT: On the Los Angeles Times' blog "Babylon & Beyond", Borzou Daragahi has highlighted, "Defying supreme leader, reformist Khatami continues to question election" (see 1200, 1400, & 1418 GMT). It will be interesting to see if the Times prints this in Sunday's newspaper, maintaining a focus on Iran after 13 Aban.

One interesting note: Jamaran, where Khatami's remarks first appeared, is owned by the family of the late Ayatollah Khomeini.

1620 GMT: Farhad Pouladi, the Iranian reporter for Agence France Presse detained on 13 Aban, has been freed.

1418 GMT: More on Khatami's Statement (see 1200 GMT). The former President has declared, “Senior authorities should accept that there is a crisis in the country" and allow all views to be expressed freely. He added, "We should find out who are ignoring the law for their own benefit, and those are the ones that should not be at centre of power."

Khatami continued his challenge to the Government as a defence of the true nature of the Islamic Republic:
If we truly return to the rule of law and those who are the guardians of the law don’t interpret the law based on their own personal views and don’t ignore the constitution,...[then the constitution will be the most important reference point. that can create unity in our society despite all the different views

We are still standing firm on our positions....In the Islamic Republic just as we defend Islam we are also defending people’s rights and votes. Those who are ignoring people’s votes and are willing to change them, are strangers to the Revolution and the Islamic Republic.

1408 GMT: And Now the Big News. We wrote earlier this morning that the regime seemed adrift and uncertain in how to respond to 13 Aban, but "tonight the President could try to change all the calculations above with an address to the nation".

Well, he won't because Ahmadinejad's speech tonight is postponed. This may be explained by the sudden announcement that the President is going to Turkey tomorrow (to discuss a re-arranged enrichment deal? --- see 0935 GMT), but pending a major breakthrough on that front, I'm going to read this as confirmation that the Government is a bit more than lost at the moment. This is the second postponement of the speech since Thursday's rallies.

1400 GMT: Regrouping Indeed. Former President Khatami is not just reasserting himself with statements questioning the election and the legitimacy of the Government (see 1200 GMT). He also met Mehdi Karroubi last night in his home.

Nominally, Khatami expressed sorrow and comforted Karroubi about the violence during the 13 Aban rallies, as did Abdollah Nouri, the interior minister in Khatami’s administration, and Bagher Golpaygani , son of the late Grand Ayatollah Golpaygani. But who is to say that other topics were not discussed?

1350 GMT: This is Important, but Why? I'm not sure what to make of this news yet, but Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has traveled to Najaf in Iraq to meet Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and other Shi'a clerics.

No clue yet as to topic of discussions. Earlier in the crisis, Sistani and his son had been in talks with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and Iranian clerics who have been critical of the Ahmadinejad Government. So is Larijani seeking support from Sistani and Iraq-based Ayatollahs to bolster the Government? Or the Supreme Leader? Or the position of the Supreme Leader against Ahmadinejad?

1340 GMT: Iranian activist "PersianBanoo" is updating with latest news on arrests from the 13 Aban protests.

1200 GMT: Khatami Rises. We have noted this week that the former President Mohammad Khatami has been relatively quiet, limiting himself to a general statement yesterday when he visited Karroubi  advisor Morteza Alviri.

Well, Khatami is back with a flourish today, declaring that the biggest "crime" of the current regime is its detachment from the values of the Revolution. And, despite warnings from the Supreme Leader, Khatami has renewed his criticism of the Presidential election.

1150 GMT: The Effect of Subsidy Cuts. Borzou Daragahi reports, from a source in Tehran, that bread prices in the capital have more than doubled.

0950 GMT: We've split off our first update today as a separate analysis, "Question for the Regime: What's Your Next Punch?"

0935 GMT: Is the Nuclear Deal On? High-profile MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi may be declaring the enrichment deal dead (see 0845 GMT), but the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei, is claiming that a compromise may have been found. He told Bloomberg News that Turkey could replace France as the third country involved, shaping the Iranium uranium enriched by Russia into metal plates.

So, is El Baradei just putting out desperate ideas to save the deal or, given that Press TV is featuring his comments, is there a section of the Iranian Government that is still committed to discussions?

0930 GMT: Really, Only 109? Azizollah Rajabzadeh, the head of Tehran police, has said, "Police arrested 109 people who created disorder and disturbed public order and security on the sideline of the rally on Wednesday. Some 62 of the detainees were jailed and the rest were released."

Of course, that number does not include those detained outside Tehran, but it's still a distance from the 400+ reported by Iranian human rights groups. So, presuming that Rajabzadeh has kept the number low, does that indicate: 1) the regime does not want to admit to the scale of the detentions, which would point to the real size of the rallies? 2) the regime is trying to show it was not that repressive, cutting against the image of the "velvet fist" it has been displaying? 3) nobody within the Government is in control of how to handle the outcome of 13 Aban?

0855 GMT: A "Correct" Press TV. We noted that, late on the night of 13 Aban and early the following day, someone at Press TV was putting out stories highlighting the opposition protests rather than those for the Government.

No more. This morning, Press TV's website has a story, "Iran Frees Three Detained Foreigners". We had that news yesterday; what is more significant is the framing of the article: "On Wednesday tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets as part of an annual event to mark the storming of the American embassy in Tehran more than three decades ago."

So that's where the "foreigners" were arrested? Well, it must be, since Press TV --- in contrast to its earlier coverage --- dares not mention the Green rallies that were taking place elsewhere in the capital and throughout Iran.

0845 GMT: Is the Nuclear Deal Off? Iranian Students News Agency is featuring a comment by the head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, “Iran is not to give any of its 1200 kilograms fuel to the other party to receive 20 percent (enriched) fuel and whether gradually or at once, this will not be done and is called off.” Boroujerdi insisted that Iran must and would find another way to get uranium, "Mr [Ali Asghar] Soltanieh [Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency] is in talks to find an approach for the issue.”

Boroujerdi's burying of the Vienna deal for Russia to enrich Iran's uranium follows his speech introducing Friday Prayers, in which he denounced protesters for mouthing the words of the Voice of America.
Saturday
Nov072009

Israel & Iran: Just One Little Question to Danny Ayalon

Israel & Iran: Lebanon Searches the “Hezbollah Arms” Ship

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pic_m_4134On Friday, Israel's Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon told Sky News that Israel was "not bluffing in its threats to to attack Iran:
The one who's bluffing is Iran, which is trying to play with cards they don't have. All the bravado that we see and the testing and the very dangerous and harsh rhetoric is hiding a lot of weaknesses.

If Iranian behavior and conduct continues as they have exhibited so far, it is obvious that their intentions are only to buy time and procrastinate.

Just one question: if Teheran is bluffing over its nuclear programme, then what exactly is Tel Aviv attacking?