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Entries in Iran (116)

Friday
Nov062009

Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban

Iran Video: The Tribute to 13 Aban’s Protesters
Iran: Josh Shahryar on Fictions & Realities of “Revolution”
Iran’s New 13 Aban: “A Major Blow to Khamenei’s Authority”
Iran’s New 13 Aban: A First-Hand Account from the Streets
Iran’s New 13 Aban: “The Green Wave Has Bounced Back”
The Latest from Iran (6 November): The Day After The Day After

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IRAN 4 NOV 6I had to wait two days to write this because I honestly did not know what was most important about the 4 November protests. There was so much to absorb that, at one point, I had to take a cold shower for distraction. But 48 hours is enough time to figure out what I believe might be the best explanations or speculations about the events that transpired.

The most important outcome, in my opinion, was that not a single life was lost. This is the first time since 12 June that a major protest day passed without the death of a protester. This could mean two things. Either the security forces misfired and failed to kill anyone or they were ordered not to kill (of course there’s a slight glimmer of hope that they might have defied orders to kill, but I’d say that would be a bit too optimistic).

The more plausible explanation is that there was a firm line as to how far security forces could. There were thousands of protesters and there were thousands of security forces, and the clashes were violent. Tear gas was fired indiscriminately. But no one shot at demonstrators.

If this is true, then the government has really gambled with its chances of staying in power. If there is no fear of death among the marchers, they could turn out in even larger numbers the next time.

The second most important issue was Mehdi Karroubi’s presence. You’d think that the government would stop this guy from attending these protests and galvanizing the masses. But it didn’t, and he showed up. Not only did he show up, but he was also attacked, adding a little more to his charisma.

At a time when dozens of politicians are in jail or on trial, and Mir Hossein Mousavi is under effective house arrest, the appearance of a high-profile leader at a rally can mean only one thing: unlike the case with other opposition figures, the Government’s hands are tied when it comes to Karroubi. The tear-gas attack on Karroubi's vehicle seemed more like a frustrated establishment attempting to deter him, precisely because it could not take more aggressive action. Probably because the regime is divided over what to do with him, Karroubi is not detained or shut up in his house. Instead, he parades around like a Jedi Master whenever he wants to.

Then there came the moment when the videos of masses screaming denunciation of Supreme Leader Ali Hossein Khamenei surfaced. Fear of directly accusing Khamenei of being a tyrant is no more. As it is said in Pashto, “Every clay pot breaks some day.”

And the people didn’t just stop at denouncing him. They tore down his picture from the billboard, they threw it on the ground, and they stomped over it jubilantly with the grace of ballerinas.

It’s on. And it’s no longer about people’s votes being stolen by Ahmadinejad or the Guardian Council. It is also about Khamenei’s reign of terror, as the masses made it clear that he was one of their list. The immunity he has enjoyed over the past five months vanished within seconds. To the demonstrators, he is now just another violator of basic human rights.

And as a bonus, for the first time (seems like so many first times occurred on 13 Aban), Government-run or Government-censored media were finally able to speak at least some of what is on their minds. Press TV’s article that described the protesters coming out in thousands might have appeared in error. But it sure showed which side the writers of the article were supporting.

Parleman News, a website that acts as an outlet for some parliamentarians, featured an article about both the pro-Government and the Green protests, but while the introduction was about the former, the was more about the latter. The next article juxtaposed praise for Khamenei’s recent remarks with pictures of the people who had desecrated the Leader’s image.

Yes, 13 Aban is over. Most protesters are home. Some are in jail. Some are groaning in pain from their wounds. Others are likely hiding. But their courage has likely changed the game.
Friday
Nov062009

Iran-Israel Ship Encounter: Hezbollah & Syria Call Reject Claims of Tel Aviv's "Pirates"

Two Birds, One Stone: Netanyahu Attacks UN & Iran
Iran-Israel “Silent War”: Armed Ship Intercepted

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399_NpAdvHoverOn Thursday, Hezbollah and Syria denied any connection with the ship, allegedly carrying arms from Iran, halted by Israel the previous day.

The Hezbollah statement called Israelis "pirates operating in international waters". Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem then stepped in to deny Israel's claims:
Unfortunately there are official pirates disrupting the movement of goods between Iran and Syria. I stress, the ship was not carrying Iranian arms bound for Syria, nor was it carrying material for manufacturing weapons in Syria. It was carrying [commercial] goods from Syria to Iran.
Friday
Nov062009

Iran Video: The Tribute to 13 Aban's Protesters

Thursday
Nov052009

Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 4th Set)

Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 3rd Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 2nd Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 1st Set)
The Latest from Iran (5 November): Riding the Wave?
The Latest from Iran (4 November — 13 Aban): Today Is The Day

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Mass Rally, Tehran

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h24aXU9cPak[/youtube]

Heckling the Government Organiser

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcURO4tzTpM[/youtube]

Isfahan

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYLOrzqaLdY[/youtube]

Burning Ahmadinejad's Picture, Shiraz University

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiPcw4DL_iQ[/youtube]

Tehran

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2ehm_fR4lo[/youtube]

Karimkhan Street, Tehran "Azadi!"

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUqtwc-I5Ik[/youtube]

Hoisting the "Green" Iran Flag, Tehran University

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=feh56ar7x_s[/youtube]

Female Student Leads Protest Amir Kabir University, Tehran

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dN1ZVJZurPY[/youtube]

Protest and Shooting Outside Amir Kabir University, Tehran

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NArBrta39LA[/youtube]

Sohrevardi Avenue, Tehran

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzmmeUHACqY[/youtube]

Seyed Khandan, Tehran

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48AOJo1c9fQ[/youtube] [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFeoltOm4ZE[/youtube]

Tehran

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9eTniGxZLv8[/youtube]

Ferdowsi University, Mashaad

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hLDE0Wq-wk[/youtube]

Kerman University

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0454pE1QiHk[/youtube] [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6jTAESfFrY[/youtube] [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKQ4VlEvw8o[/youtube]
Thursday
Nov052009

Iran's New 13 Aban: "The Green Wave Has Bounced Back"

LATEST Iran’s New 13 Aban: “A Major Blow to Khamenei’s Authority”
Iran's New 13 Aban: A First-Hand Account from the Streets
Iran: Mehdi Karroubi’s Son on 13 Aban Incidents
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 3rd Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 2nd Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 1st Set)
Text: President Obama’s Statement on Iran (4 November)
Iran: Josh Shahryar on Fictions & Realities of “Revolution”
The Latest from Iran (4 November — 13 Aban): Today Is The Day

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Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

IRAN 4 NOV 5UPDATE 1600 GMT: EA's Chris Emery has now posted a response, adding to Mr Smith's points that 13 Aban has been "a major blow to the Supreme Leader's authority".

---

Mr Smith, who was one of the EA correspondents following and updating on yesterday's events, offers his analysis:

The Green Wave has bounced back. The strongly-worded threats by the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps did not deter the supporters of Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, who made it to the police-infested streets of Tehran in their tens of thousands for yet another day of demonstrations, countering the official ones organised by the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei regime.

Yesterday's events are yet again proof of the fact that the opposition has not been defeated and is not going away. Nearly five months into the Iranian post-electoral crisis, the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei camp has not quite figured out a workable plan to fulfil its intent of silencing the critics. The litany of street violence unleashed by security forces, the background of the occasional killing and raping of reformist activists, and the current warnings by the IRGC and Ayatollah Khamenei that criticism of the "legitimate government" amounted to a crime did little to cow the Green Wave supporters. Instead, the Supreme Leader found himself at the receiving end of the street chants.

Yesterday's events also effectively ended the regime's capacity to use key Islamic Republic commemorations for its benefit. The Al-Jazeera English correspondent in Tehran portrayed the Green Wave demonstrations as a "hijacking" of the 13 Aban traditional marches. This interpretation is highly debatable, given that the perpetrators of the assault on the US embassy 30 years ago are now regime enemies, either languishing in jail, such as Mohsen Mirdamadi, or hovering in silence, such as the noted political analyst Abbas Abdi.

Another key outcome from yesterday's protests is the remarkable capacity of the rank-and-file to organise major events "from below", without needing or waiting for the go-ahead from its leadership. In fact, Mousavi and Karroubi are now effectively running after their own supporters and offering fatherly advice to them, rather than acting as beacons for the start of direct action.

And do not underestimate the damage of yesterday to the slight legitimacy that the current Government possesses. The amateur footage of young unarmed women being beaten up by riot police and the widespread accounts of violence meted out by security forces will do little to back up the official claim that a small group of "troublemakers" were dealt with humanely by the police. The new round of arrests against student activists and journalists effectively wipes out the scant concessions offered by the release on bail of eminent reformist personalities such as the newspaper editor Mohammad Ghoochani and the noted journalist Hengameh Shahidi. [Editor's note: That concession is very limited, given that Shahidi appeared yesterday in Revolutionary Court to face charges.]

However, not everything is rosy for the reformists. The heavy "security atmosphere", the Iranian euphemism for the massive presence of police forces on the streets, is having its effects. The number of participants to the 13 Aban demonstrations was considerably lower, by all accounts, than that of the Qods Day marches of 18 September. Many potential participants await news of police deployment before setting out in the streets.
And the leadership is bearing the brunt of its followers' enthusiasm and relative success. While Karroubi is staunchly appearing in public events, only to be confronted violently by the security forces, Mousavi is effectively in virtual house arrest, prevented from joining crowds of any size. Former President Mohammad Khatami is even more detached, while Hashemi Rafsanjani has gone back to his behind-the-scenes scheming.

More than ever, the Green movement now needs a clear-cut, cogent, middle- to long-term political strategy that will harness the strong popular resentment against Ahmadinejad to plans for the fall of the present government and the establishment of an alternative one, be that in the guise of a "National Unity" coalition or another form. There are reasons to believe that this possiblity is not far-fetched. Political enmity between Ahmadinejad and his conservative opponents is on the rise once again. The Brothers Larijani have contrived to block or delay any possible nuclear deal between the government and the International Atomice Energy Agency, for fear of the credit it would bring to Ahmadinejad. The subsidy plan proposed by the President has unravelled after a public quarrel between the president and Ali Larijani, the Speaker of the Majlis.

A deal between Mousavi, Karroubi, and the Larijanis is still distant on the horizon. However, the two reformist leaders must attempt to turn the sizeable following they command into political capital. Up to that point, the Green movement will resemble the "creative chaos" that has often appeared in recent Iranian political history but has only occasionally succeeded in attaining its long-term goals. A nervous and vicious stalemate hangs right now over the political skyline of Tehran, with the shadows of the Islamic Republic's most enduring political crisis becoming deeper than ever.