The Latest from Iran (1 October): From Geneva to "Unity"?

Iran: Mousavi Meeting with Reformists (30 September)
Iran: Karroubi Letter to Rafsanjani (27 September)
Iran Top-Secret: The President’s Gmail Account
Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Obama Backs Himself into a Corner
UPDATED Iran: So What’s This “National Unity Plan”?
The Latest from Iran (30 September): Confusion

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1955 GMT: How to Claim Victory. The Times of London slaps the headline, "Iran bows to sanctions pressure to allow inspectors", on its summary of the Geneva talks. Hmm.... There's nothing in the article to suggest an Iranian concession to a meaningful sanctions threat, and having been up-close-and-personal with Press TV tonight, trust me, the Iranians aren't bowing. Posturing, even swaggering a bit, but not bowing.

1945 GMT: And Now Obama. The President has given his seal of approval to the US line: a "constructive start" but if Iran does not live up to its obligations, US will move to "increase pressure". He signalled that Mohammed El Baradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, will soon visit Iran. "Hard work lies ahead."

1935 GMT: The Deal? Meanwhile, the Western media continues to miss the announcement, enthusiastically proclaimed by Press TV, that officials from Iran and the "5+1" powers will have technical talks on 18 September on "third-party enrichment".

A further signal why this is important: "Russia is ready to further enrich Iran’s uranium stocks for use as fuel in a civilian research reactor, depending on approval from the United Nations, a person familiar with the matter said today."

1920 GMT: Hold the Line. As the US Government prepares to consider its position after today's talks, no doubt in a domestic environment with critics screeching "appeasement", Hillary Clinton amplified the American statement (see 1753 GMT):

It was a productive day, but the proof of that has not yet come to fruition, so we’ll wait and continue to press our point of view and see what Iran decides to do....We want to see concrete actions and positive results. And I think that today’s meeting opened the door, but let’s see what happens.

1830 GMT: Another twist in the line of Foreign Minister Mottaki over the revelation of the second enrichment plant. Having put forward the case of four Iranian officials and scientists who have "disappeared" since 2007 (see 1350 GMT), Mottaki told the Council for Foreign Relations, "We think in Pittsburgh President Obama was misled based on wrong information and wrong analysis. The wrong analysis was provided by the British. Wrong information by certain terrorist groups."

It appears that, even though this issue has been overtaken by today's talks, Mottaki's statement points to a wider strategy: blame the British for being "hard-line" while praising the US as "flexible" and willing to negotiate if they are not misled by their partners (see 1710 GMT).

1723 GMT: In contrast to the forceful moves by the Iranians, the US post-talk statement is, well, weak: "[Undersecretary Burns] addressed the need for Iran to take concrete and practical steps that are consistent with its international obligations and that will build international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of it program."

1715 GMT: This is already a Huge-Win Day for the Iranian Government, and they're looking to make it bigger. European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana has said that Iran has promised to invite the International Atomic Energy Agency to visit the second enrichment facility near Qom, possibly "in the next couple of weeks". And chief Iranian negotiator Saeed Jalili gets a prime-time platform on CNN with Christiane Amanpour this evening.

1710 GMT: Press TV is positively gushing over today's talks with "progress to some extent". They are noting that there will be not only the renewed high-level talks at the end of the month but a meeting on 18 October to consider "third-party enrichment" of uranium for an Irnaian facility. Interestingly, their correspondent says Britain and France seemed to have a hard line in the talks, but the US was "much more flexible".

1640 GMT: We'll have a full analysis tomorrow on the talks in Geneva but here's a teaser: Crunch Time for Obama?

The Iranians have achieved their primary objective, which is to avoid an immediate condemnation and the threat of sanctions from a "breakdown" of today's discussions. That's why they were so eager to let it be known that another round of talks is planned for the end of October.

But, as we've noted, President Obama will now have to face his domestic critics who will wonder, after his tough talk last week on the "secret nuclear plants", why he is even agreeing to another get-together. The response to that may have been laid out by the lead US official at today's talks, Undersecretary of State William Burns, who told National Public Radio yesterday, “If the talks fail, which I assume they will, because of the Iranians, then I think President Obama will be in a stronger position internationally to argue for stronger sanctions,” and predicted the collapse would occur within a month.

Fair enough. What happens, however, if the Iranians continue to give just enough for the prospect of an agreement but not necessarily a grand resolution by 1 November? Will the US Government collapse the talks just to get the showdown that is being pressed upon Obama?

As I told La Stampa earlier this week, the President is caught between two wings in his Administration. He cannot maintain his balance between them forever.

1610 GMT: Confirmation. Well, the Iranians didn't wait long. The delegation was hardly out the door of the Geneva talks when it informed the Islamic Republic News Agency, "The next round of talks will be held at the end of October."

1515 GMT: And Here's The Spin for The Continuing Talks. A US official is telling journalists in Geneva that the tone has been "civil" but Iran's delegation lacks the "cohesion and confidence" to make a deal.

1510 GMT: Score One for Us Good Guys. We projected that the best result coming out of today's meeting in Geneva would be an agreement to have another meeting. This just in from The Los Angeles Times:

Undersecretary of State William Burns met Saeed Jalili, Iran's chief negotiator, "on the margins" of the nuclear talks this morning, said State Department spokesman Robert A. Wood. The meeting lasted about 30 minutes.

The bilateral session came after Iran and representatives of six great powers convened this morning in a secluded villa on the outskirts of Geneva to try to relieve growing international pressure over Tehran's nuclear program. Burns and Jalil went off as the others ate a seafood buffet lunch, then all of diplomats reconvened in a plenary session and were expected to talk for several more hours this afternoon.

U.S. officials said they expected the session to perhaps lead to another meeting.

1505 GMT: Iranian businessman Bijan Khajehpour was released on bail Wednesday, days after US National Public Radio raised his case in an interview with President Ahmadinejad.

1450 GMT: So Which Congressmen Did Iran's Foreign Minister Meet? Washington TV, drawing from the Islamic Republic News Agency, says that Manouchehr Mottaki was not just seeing the sights in Washington. He met two members of the "Foreign Relations Committee" (presumably in the US Senate). They "asked Mottaki whether Iran would allow access to the [[second enrichment] site, to which he replied that Iran has always cooperated with the International Atomic Energy Agency and was ready to allow inspectors to visit the site". Mottaki added that Iran would “not give up its rights” under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty [NPT], but added that Tehran “has no plans to quit the NPT.”

1350 GMT: Espionage Story of the Day. The Arabic newspaper Asharq al-Awsat reports that Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, spekaing with United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, has complained about the disappearance of four Iranian officials and scientists, including former Deputy Minister of Defence Alireza Asgari. The newspaper speculates that one of the "kidnapped" quartet may be the source of revelations about Iran's second enrichment facility near Qom.

The story of the missing Iranians has provoked controversy since 2007. Asgari was reported by some sources to have "defected", but Tehran has maintained that he was abducted. Subsequent stories have pointed to an Israeli programme to disrupt Iran's nuclear plans through kidnappings.

1230 GMT: Clerical Movement. Grand Ayatollahs Nasser Makarem-Shirazi and Lotfallah Safi-Golpaygani have met at the latter's house for discussion. It is the first reported meeting of senior clerics after the emergence of a purported "National Unity Plan" and comes a day after Makarem-Shirazi's public call for unity.

1155 GMT: Fars News has posted an article on the morning talks in Geneva, considering subjects and "operational strategies" for the discussions. Saeed Jalili, the Secretary of Iran's National Security Council, led Tehran's delegation in the talks with the "5+1" countries and representatives from the European Union. Under Secretary of State William Burns headed the US team.

1120 GMT: A slow period as we've tended to academic duties. The non-Iranian media is wall-to-wall on the Geneva talks but with precious little to say before a statement is issued after the discussions. Joe Klein of Time takes the Gold Medal for media foolishness with a hot-air "profile", "Ahmadinejad: Iran's Man of Mystery". Its one merit is the irony of Klein's assertion, "The real headline [of meeting Ahmadinejad] was his apparent cluelessness," given that the article is clueless about Iran's nuclear programme, internal politics, and the character of the Iranian President.

The Silver Medal goes to William Broad and David Sanger of The New York Times who, not content with having presented the Administration's portrayal of the "secret nuclear plant" as Qom as Nuclear Bomb Gospel, decide they will write a piece that Iran might have Lots and Lots of such plants. Their evidence? The cryptic words "and others" in a statement from Iran's top nuclear official and, well, that's it really.

0820 GMT: Most Surprising Story of Day (So Far). In contrast to Press TV's "All is Well" story about the reaction to Iran's nuclear programme (0600 GMT), the Iranian Labour News Agency considers the comments of Mohammad El Baradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and headlines, "IAEA chief: Iran should take US offer".

0815 GMT: Telling Half the Story. The New York Times features an article by Michael Slackman on the regional perspective around the talks on Iran's nuclear programme. The piece begins:

As the West raises the pressure on Iran over its nuclear program, Arab governments, especially the small, oil-rich nations in the Persian Gulf, are growing increasingly anxious. But they are concerned not only with the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran but also with the more immediate threat that Iran will destabilize the region if the West presses too hard, according to diplomats, regional analysts and former government officials.

That seems a balanced assessment of the position of Middle Eastern states. So how does the headline portray this balance?

"Possibility of a Nuclear-Armed Iran Alarms Arabs"

0725 GMT: Reading the Clues for Geneva. CNN is the morning mouthpiece for the White House, repeating without considering the assertions of "three senior U.S. administration officials": "The United States wants a United Nations nuclear watchdog to have unfettered access to Iran’s recently revealed uranium enrichment site." And, if Iran doesn't make the correct response, "then isolation and sanctions are other options": “If it’s not going to succeed then there has to be consequences. They will respond. If not they will pay the price.”

Fox's Major Garrett, bizarrely, converts the same briefing into this lead paragraph: "The United States will not push for sanctions against Iran in Thursday's multilateral talks on its nuclear program in Geneva and is prepared to talk one-on-one with Iranian negotiations if such engagement appears 'useful'."

Those who want to do better than CNN or Fox News can read through the transcript of the State Department's "background briefing". Meanwhile, Reza Aslan cuts through the Administration line and the poor reporting to make the key point, "In short, without a real military option and with no guarantee that sanctions will have any effect, all we are left with—like it or not—is these negotiations"

0620 GMT: What the media is missing, as it is distracted by the Geneva talks, is the significant but still far-from-clear change in Iran's political landscape in the last 48 hours.

All indications are that a plan for political reconciliation --- whether it is in draft or final version --- has been circulating. Yesterday there was the dispute over whether Ayatollah Haeri-Sharazi had branded the plan "a lie", the supporting calls for unity from figures like Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi, and, most importantly, the meeting of Mir Hossein Mousavi with the reformist Parliamentary minority, the Imam Khomeini Line.

Mousavi is clearly working with the notion of a "National Unity Plan", but we're divided here at Enduring America over whether that means Mousavi is reinforcing the Green Wave's challenge to the system or giving up political opposition for a more conciliatory, even accommodating concept of "social movement". Personally, what has disturbed me, putting all the reports together, is the exclusion of Mehdi Karroubi from the process. This feels like a compromise between Mousavi and elements within the regime (to be blunt, Mousavi and Rafsanjani). If true, what that means for the future of President Ahmadinejad is uncertain --- could there even be a vision of a new Government in which Mousavi would have a role? The Supreme Leader, on the other hand, would be in a far stronger position.

We should know more today after Rafsajani and former President Mohammad Khatami meet the Imam Khomeini Line.

0600 GMT: For the world's media, "Iran" will mean little more today than the talks on Tehran's nuclear programme in Geneva. While there are some useful scraps of informaton, most of the coverage relies on generalisations ahead of any meaningful news from Switzerland. Thus, CNN's "IAEA: Iran broke law with nuclear facility" squares off with Press TV's "Exclusive: IAEA letter thanks Iran over notification".

More importantly, almost none of the news outlets are able to read behind the superficial spin from the participating countries. Thus, the emerging picture --- that Washington's high-profile pressure tactics over the "secret nuclear plant" have put the Administration in a corner, as the possibility of significant sanctions recedes --- is missed. So, if Iran does not offer a meaningful concession to US demands today, Obama faces a bigger challenger than Tehran's non-Bomb: the domestic groups who will insist on a punishment that cannot be meted out.

Comments

[Arshama]

@ National Unity Plan

What you see are the IRI's last efforts to solve its ongoing legitimacy crisis. Even if Mousavi accepts giving up opposition, the SL will not accept him. The main problem is not an alleged alliance between Rafsanjani and Mousavi, but the ruling caste. Neither the SL nor AN nor the IRGC are ready to cede - unfortunately or fortunately.
Just have a look at some of today's peykeiran entries: 28 month of jail for a student for self-defence / Installation of Bassijis around the Azadi stadium / Jailing two teachers in Karaj / Attack on a printing house and jailing its owner in Tehran:
http://www.peykeiran.com/Default.aspx
Do you really expect this regime to climb down?
On the other hand the economy is on continuous decline. Shahrzad News cites Mohammad Nahavandian, chief of Iran's chamber of commerce, saying that in some parts of the country 50 % of companies have closed down, while the rest are working at 30 % of their capacities. This fits well with suspended production of Tondar 90 at the Iran Khodro car plant. Read also this short notice on IRGC's telecommunication coup: http://blog.american.com/?p=5605
Mismanagement, corruption and merciless persecution of all critics are the best devices to reach a complete breakdown. For whom the bells tolls...

[Don Cox]

"in some parts of the country 50 % of companies have closed down, while the rest are working at 30 % of their capacities. "

Things got much worse than this in Zimbabwe, yet the regime is still in place. (With a token representation from the opposition to give the appearance of a "Unity" government.)

Possibly Iranians have more fight in them than Zimbabweans, but I fear that most of the fighters have left both countries.

A good way for the SL to divide-and-rule would be to give Moussavi an impressive but powerless position.

[whereismyvote]

@ Arshama

Well I have to agree with you that if non compromise and hardheadedness does not lead to the demise of this regime (AN / SL alliance, backed by the guns of Pasdaran) then the economic mismanagement will. It will not necessarily be the mismanagement of AN alone, for if you lived in Iran during the war, you remember how resilient the economy actually is, to withstand shock after shock. It will be the combined miss management and the civil discordance that will lead to an economic crisis, and subsequently the upheaval. This off course will hopefully be followed by continues presence of the people on the scene. But one thing to remember:
People of Iran (the young, the old and even some of the middle aged) are not at all interested in the foreign leaders that many diaspora propose. MKO, the Monarchy or for that matter any of the foreign forces have no value in Iran. Mousavi is far more credible, given all his flaws as a character, than the Shah's son living in USA. The AN regime will not climb down, yet. It will clinch to power for at least another 6 months to a year, but do you really expect the people to also climb down? The arrests, the torture, and all the beatings and intimidation are bad, but we all know that its nothing compared to what is to come, the moment AN government feels safe, secure and protected. The only thing holding back true savagery, is the threat of mass protest followed by violent resistance by the masses. People know this and will not leave the scene and surrender their power for nothing.
The leaders of Reform want to compromise, cause they want to save the republic and the current government institutions and system. Rest assured that the people will also not back down if the leaders of opposition do so, without due compromise having been extracted. This also will not be the last chapter of the civil awakening of the nation, and that the presidential election the only confrontation between the people and the government. It is more like a movement that will move towards shifting of power, systematically through protest and resistance from the current regime to the people.

Remember the words of Mousavi that the green movement has now gained its own consciousness and lives through its organization in the virtual world of internet. People have become reborn and re evangelized. No longer do we have hypothetical discussions of what may happen or that change is impossible, the discussion is now far more practical. How to protest, when and where, to resist and instead of an infinite fear of the regime and the Pasdaran, we only fear immediate beating, torture and death. This has made the Pasdaran weak, and the people strong.

Given the choice of live on to fight another day or to continue to confront and be annihilated, I suspect soon enough the IRG leadership will see some splits and cracks in its armor.

[hasty]

@Don cox

have you done all the studies and researches used in this analysis of yours 50 years ago and shut and left it there since cuz it's abit dusty?

SL is in an impressive but powerless position himself. in fact he is only a big name under which lots of things is done by some other people, so he won't give anything to anyone. not to mention the fact that this anyone here is mousavi who is definately not SL's favorite anyway.
I'm not even gonna bother about the rest,,,

[Yseut]

Sounds so right and sound what you say Whereismyvote,
-and much helpful to understand main lines of reality and
its challenges in Iran today Thank you for sharing -and
shedding these lights on the blog, with Afshin and others !

[Arshama]

@ whereismyvote

I agree with you in many points, but let me first say that both monarchy and mullahcracy have lost their legitimacy as I noticed yesterday. Whatever system the Iranian people will choose in a FREE and DEMOCRATIC election, you, me and all of us have to accept it!
Unfortunately our fellow citizens did not have this choice during the past 30 years. Just remember the mass executions of opponents in 1988 and subsequent systematic annihilation of political dissidents or the chain murders of writers in 1998. Even this last election was faked, otherwise Iranians would have had a choice between 400 or 40 candidates instead of only 4. Nevertheless I accept the fact that a majority voted for Mousavi.
But I am convinced that our people wants more than just compromise, they want their fundamental civil rights. Neither Mousavi nor the Reformers are able to grant them these rights. Our problem is the structure of this republic, a hollow compromise between theocracy and democracy. Otherwise the SL would not have the right to veto parliament's decisions, as he did during Khatami's presidency (media law).
Fundamental changes in our society were already visible at that time, when students protested against the closure of the daily "Salam", which reminded me much of student protests of 1968, although on a different scale and under completely different conditions. Meanwhile a new generation has grown up in this republic, which wants more than these hollow compromises.
Remember that 60% of Iranians are below the age of 30: They need jobs to earn their living, to marry or to survive. Do you really think that this system, where 60% of all companies are controlled by dubious Bonyads (religious foundations) and which sells state telecommunication to the Pasdaran will give them a chance?
Especially after Qods day I am convinced that our fellow citizens will continue their struggle for personal, economic and political freedom. Somewhere I read that it took one year to bring down the Shah. May it be further 255 days or even two years, I have no doubt that this Islamic Republic is doomed to fail.

[Amy]

re comment # 3
whereismyvote
wow, just wow
What you just said is a deep statement of how things are developing in Iran. The image of the people staring down AN is as if you are holding back the savagery by the sheer force of the common will, by standing together. In doing so you are creating the space for the attempt at a unity plan. At the same time you are looking beyond that possibility, preparing your selves for what you need to do next if the unity plan fails or falls short.

I keep some of the especially strong comments posted here. I'm saving that one

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