The Latest from Iran (5 September): A Quiet Phase

The Latest from Iran (4 September): A Friday Pause?

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2200 GMT: Another Reformist Fightback. Nasrullah Torabi, a reformist member of Parliament, has condemned the "desperate act" of the regime in applying pressure on the family of Imam Khomeini to cancel former President Khatami’s speech on Qadr Night and eventually the entire ceremony in the Imam's shrine (the first cancellation in 20 years), saying that these kinds of behaviour will cause people greater concern and have negative consequences in society.

2010 GMT: Striking Back at the Revolutionary Guard. On Wednesday we noted the declaration of General Johammad Ali Jafari, the commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, that former Khatami and other reformist leaders such as Mousavi Khoeniha, as well as Hashemi Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi, had tried "to pull down the leadership at any cost".

A reader points us to the story's sequel. The Association of Combatant Clerics condemned Jafari’s assertions and asked for a judicial response: “Is it inappropriate to ask the prosecutor general to appropriately respond to this slander and lies, and other similar remarks, which have incited public opinion and are the groundwork for dangerous plans, particularly as the head of the judiciary has stressed that any violator regardless of the office he holds has to be confronted?”

Mohammad Ali Tabesh, the Secretary General of the minority reformist faction in Parliament, went even further, “Those who gave the IRGC permission to intervene in the elections and those who gave the Pasdaran the warrants to arrest and extract forced confessions, must be prosecuted, rather than those who have demonstrated they allegiance to the regime.”

Tabesh added to his warning, "I advise them to let us keep quiet. We have so far refrained from talking about many issues in order to preserve the regime and the revolution, and not allow the enemies to misuse such expressions under these conditions and do not intend to talk about them. So I hope these gentlemen do not do something that will result in posturing when some truths and realities will be made which will damage the regime.”

1950 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib has condemned the post-election repression, asking how those who have been brutally confronting people can call themselves Muslims. He added that these vicious acts and crimes by coup agents have tainted the face of Islam in the world and made youth lose hope in Islam and convert to other religions.

1940 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has said that he will defend the values of the revolution and the nation's interests as long as he lives and will never give up on this effort. He emphasised that the continuation of the Government's post-election approach is dangerous for the fate and future of the country, destroying the “Republic”, and emphasised continuing the resistance.

1600 GMT: Ebrahim Raeesi, the deputy head of Iran's judiciary and one of the three-person panel appointed by Sadegh Larijani to investigate claims of abuse of detainees, has said that Mehdi Karroubi has yet to prove the allegations put forward in his letter of late July.

1545 GMT: Great Blogs Think Alive. The Los Angeles Times has also picked up on Abdollah Ramezanzadeh's revelations (see 1305 GMT) about his 80-day detention in Evin Prison.

1410 GMT: The Los Angeles Times has now offered their own summary of the Mousavi statement (see 1215 GMT), highlighting this extract: "We shouldn't leave any stone unturned and live up to our commitments in our struggle against cheaters and liars. In pursuing our cause we should brave all the accusations, and we shouldn't duck any act of courage or daring."

1400 GMT: An Iranian website is featuring an interview with a staff member of Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery, giving details of the alleged secret burials of 40 protestors killed in post-election conflict.

An Iranian activist has provided an English summary via Twitter.

1305 GMT: Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, the Presidential spokesman in the Khatami Government who was held for almost three months in Evin Prison, has been interviewed by a reporter after his appearance in an Iranian "media court" on other charges:

I was arrested 2 hours after the election on the street by soldiers and was treated very harshly. During the arrest, my young son and I both were beaten. I sustained a cracked skull and broken ribs. Despite the obvious injuries I had, in Evin they only provided me with tissue paper to cover my wounds.

After 80 days in detention I still don't know what I am being charged with. I have been interrogated many times, blind folded, the interrogator stood behind me the entire time. I have been in solitary the entire time and have only had one family visit.

1225 GMT: Parleman News is reporting that, in preparation for a meeting with the special committee of Parliament investigating detentions, a judiciary representative is indicating there should be no more arrests and a release of all those detained on minor charges.

1215 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has released a statement, which reached us via his wife Zahra Rahnavard's Facebook page, declaring,

Contrary to what the propaganda machine of the coup [Government] is trying to imply, it is we who are demanding the return of trust and peace to society and it is we who are avoiding any radical and violent act.We have very clear and logical demands. We demand strengthening national unity, the recovery of the moral and ethical identity of the establishment, and rebuilding the public trust as the main component of the political power structure of the country, which is not possible except by accepting people’s rights and gaining their consent in the outcomes of governmental matters and transparency in all measures by the continuous flow of information.

A full English translation is promised soon.

1200 GMT: Such a slow day on the domestic front that we will note the nuclear programme story. The Iranian Government is playing a carrot-and-stick game with the "5+1" powers (US, UK, Germany, France, Russia, and China). On the one hand, the secretary of the National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, is saying that Tehran will deliver a proposal next week "for fresh talks". On the other hand, Iranian envoy Ali Asghar Soltanieh has delivered a letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency, saying that the agency has not provided "genuine" documents on allegations of a possible nuclear weapons programme and the matter is "closed."

Iran's position, in contrast to the Agency's claim that it had seen "multiple documents from multiple countries", is that the allegations are based solely on American fabrication of an "Iranian laptop" with the material: "The government of the United States has not handed over original documents to the agency since it does not in fact have any authenticated document and all it has are forged documents."

0655 GMT: As I type, I am watching Press TV's feature "Iran Today". It is covering the current political situation, highlighting the Parliament approval of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. However, it is also striking that it notes the post-election protests and "the opposition has not been appeased".

The conclusion? "The challenges during Ahmadinejad's 2nd term are many", including unemployment, the budget, inflation, poverty, subsidies, and oil experts, "but these could be turned into opportunities by his new Cabinet members".

0630 GMT: The political lull continues this morning, as all sides regroup and reassess after the week's events, dominated by the negotiations over the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. We could re-post both yesterday's introductory update and the analysis "Has Ahmadinejad Won?" (where there has been an outstanding debate amongst readers) with no changes.

State media will make great play today of a visit by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to Tehran and his declaration of support for the Iranian nuclear programme. The Islamic Republic News Agency declares, "A New Club is Born." It's the first appearance by a foreign leader in Iran after the election, apart from brief trips by the King of Oman and Syria's Bashir al-Assad.

The Latest from Iran (4 September): A Friday Pause?

NEW Neda Update: The Appeal for Her Detained Fiance, Caspian Makan
NEW Iran: Satire Becomes “News” – Ahmadinejad’s Ayatollah and Prisoner Rape
Latest Iran Video: The Ruholamini Memorial (3 September)
The Latest from Iran (3 September): Ahmadinejad Gets His Cabinet

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2015 GMT: Being a Detainee is Jolly Nice. Fars News has run an "interview" with Saeed Hajjarian in which the reformist politician expresses “his satisfaction about his condition in prison.” Hajjarian denies “being hospitalized, being subjected to harsh forms of torture or given mind-altering drugs.”

Hajjarian's daughter Zeinab offers a different picture, writing Ayatollah Mousavi Ardebili, that her mother is under severe pressure from Government interrogators and that her father has told the authorities, “I have followed your dictates and announced that my situation in prison is satisfactory. Why don’t you leave my family alone?”

1405 GMT: There Goes My Visiting Professor Post at Tehran University. At Friday prayers in Tehran, Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani has declared that the study of the humanities is very important but the subjects should be not be taught in "the Western style".

Reuters' take on the address is that Kashani tried to turn attention away from Iran's legitimacy crisis towards its influence overseas: "It is now the time to export the revolution...it is not the time to treat each other like this. Such remarks cause damage to the Islamic society and prevent the export of the revolution."

1355 GMT: Making Supreme Lemonade out of Cabinet Lemons. Full credit to Press TV and Fars News for their conversion of potential criticism of yesterday's vote of confidence into high praise for the Supreme Leader.

Here was their challenge. The Vice Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, has revealed that up to 9 of the 21 Ministers nominated by President Ahmadinejad were not winning over the Parliament, "If we had not received the Leader's recommendations, eight or nine ministers would have failed to win the vote of confidence. It would not have been a good start for the government."

Hmm....that's not high praise for Ahmadinejad's people, and it seems to indicate the Supreme Leader interfered in a Parliamentary process. But wait. Press TV sticks that admission in the 7th paragraph, far below the "right" interpretation:

Iran's vice speaker, Mohammad-Reza Bahonar, has hailed the Leader of the Islamic Revolution for providing Parliament with "friendly" guidance on clearing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's nominees for his cabinet.

Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei "recommended that the government should start working at the earliest and with fullest capacity at the time when the country is faced with domestic and international crises and issues," Fars News Agency quoted Bahonar as saying on Thursday.

Well played, sir. Very well played.

1335 GMT: A full list of the 72 people whose deaths have been confirmed in post-election violence has now been posted on the Internet.

1325 GMT: After a quiet morning, some items of interest are emerging. Khabar carries an interview with a Revolutionary Guard member describing the capture of leading reformists such as Saeed Hajjarian and the methods used to make them "confess".

1040 GMT: The Holy Shrine of Imam Khomeini has announced the cancellation of all forthcoming events during Ramadan. Former President Khatami was due to speak at the shrine next week, with Green movement activists discussing a rally in support.

1035 GMT: Mohammad Reza Bahonar, a Deputy Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, has claimed that the Supreme Leader's intervention was necessary for the approval of Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and five other ministers (oil, industry, trade, cooperatives, and transport).

1030 GMT: We've just posted a warning about running too quickly with "news" on Iran, documenting how a satirical piece on Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi authorising rape of prisoners turned into "reality".

0930 GMT: Still very quiet on news front, so we'll happily note that Josh Shahryar's excellent dissection of the "pro-Ahmadinejad" argument on the Iranian election --- which we posted on Tuesday --- has now made it to The Huffington Post.

0730 GMT: With news slowing after yesterday's events in Parliament, we've taken the time to write an extended analysis of the current and future political and economic situation, "Has Ahmadinejad Won?" Thanks to all our readers, whose comments yesterday were invaluable.

Away from Parliament, the "40th day" memorial ceremony for Mohsen Ruholamini (pictured), who died in detention in Evin Prison, took place yesterday at Vali-e Asr Mosque in Tehran. Since Ruholamini's father, Abdolhossein Ruholamini, is a prominent "conservative" political activist and advisor to Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, the authorities posed no obstacle, as they have been with other memorials for slain protestors. We've posted the video in a separate entry.

Neda Update: The Appeal for Her Fiance, Caspian Makan

The Latest from Iran (4 September): A Friday Pause?

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I don't think that this story, after all the iconic treatment of the shooting of Neda Agha Soltan on 20 June by Basij militia, has received much attention. From Amnesty International:

Tehran resident Caspian Makan, who was the fiancé of Neda Agha Soltan, a young woman killed in the recent protests in Iran, is in detention in Evin Prison. Amnesty International believes that he is being held because he witnessed her murder and later made a statement linking her killing to a member of Iran’s Basij militia. He is at risk of torture or other ill-treatment....

Caspian Makan was arrested at his home in north Tehran on 26 June. He had told BBC Persian TV, in an interview on 22 June that “Eyewitnesses and video footage […] clearly show that probably Basij paramilitaries […] deliberately targeted her”....

Caspian Makan is reported to have told his family that if he signs a “confession” saying that the PMOI [People's Mujahideen Organisation of Iran], a political body banned in Iran since 1981, killed her, then he may be released from Evin Prison in Tehran. Amnesty International fears that he  may be forced to sign such a “confession” under torture or other ill-treatment, given the pattern of human rights violations
following the election. He may be a prisoner of conscience, held for peacefully exercising his right to freedom of expression.

Amnesty have asked those who are concerned to send appeals for Makan's release to the Supreme Leader and to head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani.

Iran: OK, The Cabinet's In, Has Ahmadinejad "Won"?

The Latest from Iran (4 September): A Friday Pause?
The Latest from Iran (3 September): Ahmadinejad Gets His Cabinet

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Today, on Iran's "weekend", should be a political catch-your-breath day after the culmination of Parliament's approval of 18 of 21 proposed Ministers for the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. News slowed to a standstill last night, and there is almost nothing of significance this morning. There are Friday prayers in Tehran, but no sign that they will produce the headline statements of the last three months, from the Supreme Leader's 19 June drawing of the post-election line to Hashemi Rafsanjani's 14 July intervention to President Ahmadinejad's hard-line anti-opposition pitch last week.

The President's immediate victory, with one unexpected minor setback (the loss of his proposed Minister of Energy), does not mean that the battle is over. Far from it. However, to appreciate the tensions, contests, and manoeuvres, you have to read far beyond "mainstream" coverage, especially outside Iran.

Most of the Western press have pretty much lost the plot. That's why, to our obvious frustration, almost all (with the notable exception of The New York Times) offered simple and misleading reviews of the final Parliament act yesterday. For some, the vote was the signal to move the focus to Iran's nuclear programme. For some, it was the quick grab headline of the Islamic Republic's first woman minister or Mr Most Wanted (Ahmad Vahidi, for a 1994 bombing in Argentina) becoming the Minister of Defense. For others, it was a "white flag" moment for the opposition, as Iran's "hardliners" had united behind the President. Game over.

Wrong. To be honest, I found yesterday's discussion by readers on our updates far more fascinating and useful than the press summaries. (Thanks, by the way, to all who have contributed.) Have a look, because it is here that the next steps of Hashemi Rafsanjani --- who dropped out of the non-Iranian narrative of events --- are considered. It is here that the important matter of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, and its relationship with the President and the Supreme Leader, is in play.

And it is here that attention is paid to those conservative and principlist elements who continue to dislike and even move against Ahmadinejad, even if they did not make their stand yesterday. What now for the Larijanis --- Ali still as Speaker of the Parliament, Sadegh as head of judiciary --- and their allies? What now for high-profile MPs like Ali Motahari and Ahmad Tavakoli, who have bitterly challenged the President and his inner circle since mid-July? What now for those who saw the in-fighting at Ministries like Intelligence as an attempt by Ahmadinejad (and the IRGC) to expand their control and who didn't take too kindly to it?

(And, lest we forget, our question from last week is not resolved, despite Ayatollah Khamenei's open intervention to assist with confirmation of the Cabinet, "What now for the Supreme Leader?")

For us, the post-election crisis has never been a matter of a single, dramatic showdown between the regime and its opponents but a series of waves, inside and outside the Government. There was the immediate wave of mass demonstrations (which were renewed at points throughout July), the wave of resistance to Ahmadinejad's inauguration, the wave of response to the detentions and trials, fed both by Mehdi Karroubi's initiatives and by conservative/principlist disquiet, and the wave that led up to yesterday's vote.

Clearly, the wave of resistance to an Ahmadinejad Cabinet is now dissipated. Indeed, I think it is now fair to drop the label "post-election crisis". Despite all those who will never believe that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won the 12 June vote, he has now gone through all the bureaucratic motions of re-assuming office. However, there is still a "legitimacy crisis". Just because you're President doesn't mean that folks accept your authority.

In part, that "legitimacy crisis" may not be as prominent because the Green wave is in a bit of a lull. Ramadan plays its part here, as well as battle fatigue and the disruption of the opposition's organisation. The leadership of Mir Hossein Mousavi in particular is now primarily on Facebook pages, given the shutdown of his websites, the detentions of some of his top advisors, and restrictions on his movements.

But, whether as an outcome of these difficulties or as a measured strategy, the Green movement has now set out its next resurgence. On 18 September, Qods (Jerusalem) Day, the plan is to assemble as Hashemi Rafsanjani speaks at Friday prayers in Tehran.

OK, but that's two weeks away, and there's no guarantee that the movement will produce a mass show of resistance (or even that Rafsanjani, given his withdrawal from prayers in mid-August, will appear), right? Of course, but that scepticism in turn discounts that tensions continue within the regime.

At the risk of repeating our "Iranians love chess" cliche too often, one strong move does not mean checkmate. And the President and his allies still have a glaring weakness in their defences. Look at the list of waves above. The one that has always been crashing ashore since mid-July has been the criticism of the post-election crackdown through detentions, beatings and abuses, confessions, and trials. And that wave was not put out to sea with the Parliament vote.

It is possible that Ahmadinejad has come through the worst of this. There was a signal this week that the post-election criticism of Mohsen Rezaei, despite the death of his campaign advisor's son in detention, may be muted by putting Rezaei at the head of State broadcasting. The Supreme Leader may be satisfied that he made his point when he "closed" Kahrizak prison. Sadegh Larijani may be content to take his place at judiciary and not challenge the continuing trials; alternatively, Ahmadinejad and the IRGC may accept that they should now curb the crackdown and let proceedings take a lower profile, with releases of some prisoners and "moderate" sentences for others. Ayatollah Khamenei may even announce an end-of-Ramadan "amnesty" for iconic detainees such as Saeed Hajjarian and Mohammad Ali Abtahi.

But, as of now, we don't know. And there's a twist in the tale.

Actually, it's not a twist. It's a storyline that has been here all the time. As EA's Chris Emery and our sharp-eyed/sharp-minded readers have noted, post-election events have added to the strains on the Iranian economy. The post-election crisis brought Government to a standstill and exposed problems in Iran's infrastructure. Of course, Ahmadinejad and his new Cabinet may try to stabilise or even jump-start the economy, but the President's record in this area hasn't been too good.

And that is where "post-election crisis" turns into "legitimacy crisis". It's one thing for an activist to get angry over a stolen vote; another for a "non-activist" to get angry because transport doesn't work, food is more expensive, housing isn't assured, and the lights go out.

If that is the case, if there is a wave of resentment over the economy that happens to arise at the same time as the ongoing waves over the political authority of the President and his allies (and I write that in full cognizance of the opinion of EA colleagues and some of our readers that the Revolutionary Guard has shown its muscle in recent weeks).....

Welcome back to the storm.

Latest Iran Video: The Ruholamini Memorial (3 September)

The Latest from Iran (4 September): A Friday Pause?

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