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Sunday
Sep202009

UPDATED Iran: The Extended NBC TV Interview with President Ahmadinejad

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[Earlier commentaries and videos follow the extended 53-minute interview.]

I have been highly critical of the way NBC publicised and rolled out the earlier versions of this interview (see videos below), first in a "teaser" clip and then in the 6 1/2-minute extract featured on last week's NBC Evening News. The extended version has finally gone out on MSNBC today. To be fair, I'll refrain from further analysis until I've had a chance to give this full consideration.



The full interview went out on NBC's evening news last night. The lead question-and-answer was, "Did You Steal This Election?", the advance clip that we posted below with our less-than-impressed analysis. To be fair to interviewer Ann Curry, she did follow this with a carefully-phrased challenge as to whether Ahmadinejad's forces had rigged the vote. And, of course, the President held the line with his insistence on brave Iranian people recognising his legitimacy by supporting him.

Curry then jumped to the death of Neda Agha Soltan ("What were your emotions when you saw this video?"). The President handled this easily, promising to investigate a suspicous death. Curry then finally got to current issues of detentions, abuses, and torture, to which Ahmadinejad expressed his regret that some people had been killed but far more security forces had been slain. And that was it: Curry then jumped to the nuclear issue and US-Iran talks.

In short? Curry's claim that the President "made news on several fronts" is blather, as she generally referred to a few basic (if important) symbols of past months inside Iran. She showed no knowledge of what is happening in Iran this week, leaving the President free to walk away unscathed. Indeed, he walked away boosted by the legitimacy granted to him by a major US television network more interested in headline ratings than in an appreciation of the complexity and significance of what is happening in the Islamic Republic.



NBC has just posted the first extract from Ann Curry's interview with President Ahmadinejad. Here's their hard-hitting, headline question: "Did you steal the election?"

Pow, what a journalistic coup! Of course, the President was completely flummoxed and said, "Yes. Yes, I did."

OK, not really. Instead he trotted out the line --- familiar to all readers of Enduring America --- that these were the fairest elections in the history of the world, with 85 percent turnout, and other so-called "democracies" should recognise the superior superior system of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

But here's what burns me beyond the ineptitude. Curry's framing of the question of legitimacy is put not in the challenges from the Green movement and those marching on Qods Day but through the Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani.

We'll wait for the rest of the interview but it looks like NBC has given Ahmadinejad and the regime far more legitimacy than they have received from other governments, let alone many of the Iranian people.



The American television network NBC previewed its "exclusive" interview with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad about 1220 GMT. The interview is being conducted this afternoon, presumably to be aired tonight. Meanwhile, NBC has talked to the families of the three Americans detained when they crossed the border into Iran.

Already, however, this is in danger of being a travesty. After patting itself enthusiastically on the back for getting the interview, NBC frames these as the issues "at a critical moment": 1) Iran's nuclear programme and negotiations with the US; 2) Ahmadinejad's appearance at the United Nations; 3) the three US "hitchhikers".

No reference to Qods Day. No reference to Hashemi Rafsanjani, the Supreme Leader, and Friday Prayers. No reference to the Green opposition at all apart from the fleeting note of "crackdown on election protestors".

If I'm wrong when the interview is aired, I will say that with relief. For now, this looks like a perfect storm of Ahmadinejad's manoeuvring and the ineptitude of the US mainstream media.



Sunday
Sep202009

UPDATED Qods Day Video Special: The Black-and-White Soccer Game

The Latest from Iran (18 September): Qods Day
NEW Iran Video: Qods Day Protests (18 September)

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UPDATED 20 September: Is this why the authorities had to censor the coverage of the Esteghlal-Estell Azin match? This video claims to be of fans moving into the stadium.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cp7CZ3RPrMc&feature=player_embedded#t=87[/youtube]

UPDATED 19 September: We've been sorting through the mystery, with the help of readers, on today's updates. They have noted, as the second video shows, that the game was later broadcast in colour but --- according to one correspondent --- with old sound overlaid and careful manipulation of camera angles.

As we noted on today's updates, the story started circulating this evening that Iranian state television was carrying tonight's big football match only in parts, only in black-and-white, and without sound. This was supposedly because Iran's national broadcaster could find only one (presumably very old) camera, rather than because thousands of people had gone to the stadium wearing Green and chanting Green slogans.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12dQI6cHlKY&feature=player_embedded#t=276[/youtube]

Later footage:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDXTZA26DZk[/youtube]
Sunday
Sep202009

The Latest from Iran (20 September): Khamenei's End-of-Ramadan Speech

NEW Iran's Qods Day: A Participant On the Isfahan Marches
NEW Iran: Mehdi Karroubi for the Nobel Peace Prize?
Iran After Qods Day: What Next for the Green Movement (The Sequel)?
Iran: The Five Lessons of Qods Day
Iran: Another Qods Day Participant Writes
Latest Iran Video: More from Qods Day (18-19 September)
Iran Video: Qods Day Protests (18 September)

The Latest from Iran: Challenge Renewed (19 September)

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AHMADI RAF 2Picture of Day. OK, so Hashemi Rafsanjani showed up in the front row of the Supreme Leader's Eid-al-Fitr prayers near Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but he doesn't look too thrilled about the President, does he? Captions welcomed.

2000 GMT: The Clerics' Relatives. More on the Saturday release of the grandchildren of Ayatollah Montazeri (see 0840 GMT). They each had to post $20,000 bail as did the children of Ayatollah Mousavi-Tabrizi and Ayatollah Nazemzadeh.

1810 GMT: Stand by Your Man. In a move overshadowed by Qods Day, President Ahmadinejad has reconfirmed Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as the head of his Presidential office.

This is far more than an appointment. Given the conservative and principlist opposition that forced Ahmadinejad to withdraw Rahim-Mashai's selection as 1st Vice President, this is a symbol that the President rules within the Establishment. The reconfirmation also comes despite Rahim-Mashai's recent suspension over charges of financial misconduct.

1455 GMT: Speculation of Day - Khamenei-Rafsanjani Deal? Some Twitter-based Iranian activists have come up with the most intriguing analysis of the Khamenei speech and Hashemi Rafsanjani's attendance.

The Supreme Leader's declaration that evidence from confessions in court cannot be used against third parties is an "immunity" for Rafsanjani and his family. (Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi and other Rafsanjani relatives were prominently charged in confessions with political and financial impropriety in the initial Tehran trials.) In exchange for this, Rafsanjani showed his support for Khamenei with his presence in the front row of the audience.

I wouldn't go as far as deal but would see this as a return by the Supreme Leader to his Friday prayer speech of 19 June where he supported the Ahmadinejad election but also praised Rafsanjani and slapped down the President's pre-election allegations of corruption.

1315 GMT: Alternatively, you can fail by ignoring anybody inside Iran except the Supreme Leader. That's the choice of The Times of London, which doesn't seem to realise that the primary target of Khamenei's address was the opposition inside the country rather than "arch-foe Israel, Western powers and foreign media networks".

Thank goodness, Reuters has now put out an article recognising the Supreme Leader's linking of "foreign media" and his internal challengers.

1240 GMT: The "Western" media is on the verge of a major failure in its portrayal of Iran's internal situation. For some reason, Associated Press turned a minor extract from the Supreme Leader's speech, "What a suspect says in a court against a third party has no legitimate validity," into the main theme that the regime was retreating from post-election conflict (see 0940 GMT). This soon raced as a headline around the Internet and US broadcast outlets, who use AP as gospel to compensate for their lack of coverage, prepared to run this as a major change in the regime's position.

Only problem is that the Supreme Leader's overall message was one of confrontation with the opposition, bringing him more in line with the approach of President Ahmadinejad. He made his strongest statement in weeks linking protest with the supposed direction of a "velvet revolution" by Israel and the US (see 0950 GMT) and issued a warning --- directed first at Mehdi Karroubi --- about any claims of detainee abuse (see 0955 GMT). A glance at Fars News' coverage and that of the Islamic Republic News Agency reveals no reference to the statement regarding trials and an emphasis on the "velvet revolution" theme.

We have been in contact with CNN in the hope that the broadcaster may recognise the danger of reliance on the AP report and will take a closer look at sources that reflect the real significance of Khamenei's message. One of the five lessons of Qods Day for us was "the wanderings of the Supreme Leader"; well, he has now broken his silence and looks to be wandering into line with the Ahmadinejad Government.

1235 GMT: Holding Out. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has continued his defiance of the Supreme Leader's declaration, announcing that Ramadan only ends this evening and that Eid al-Fitr should be on Monday.

1040 GMT: Apart from Khamenei's speech, the buzz is that Hashemi Rafsanjani and Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan made prominent appearance at Eid-al-Fitr prayers. An EA correspondent considers: "Seems like Khamenei at the least succeded in persuading them to show up for a - at least at face value - show of unity. However, what Rafsanjani's real aims and intentions are remain a total mystery. My gut feeling is that he is continuing to take part in at least part of the regime's events to provide some sort of a cloak for Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, staving off the chances of them being arrested. Needs to be seen if this will alleviate the dire conditions of those in jail though."

0955 GMT: And it worth be worthwhile to note Khamenei's implicit defense of those within the regime accused of abuses in the post-election crisis: "The media should refrain from publicizing allegations leveled by foreign media against certain individuals in the country accusing them of betrayal and other wrongdoings....This would not be acceptable."

0950 GMT: Defying Friday. The real story of the Khamenei speech is the Supreme Leader's effort to turn back any notion of challenge from the Qods Day demonstrations. He did this by linking the line on Israel/Palestine with the contention that the nation had stood against Western-led troublemakers on Friday.

Qods Day had been a “day of loud and clear shouts” against the “deadly cancer of Zionism...spreading through the invading hands of the occupiers and arrogant powers... which is gnawing into the lives of the Islamic nations”. Then the Supreme Leader, who only a few weeks ago was denying that Iran had been threatened by a "velvet revolution", took aim at the attempt at "velvet revolution":
The enemies tried to undermine the Quds Day rally, but the rally showed that the schemes of the enemies were not effective....In the past few months, Western leaders fell for their media, professional press analysts and radios and televisions and thought they could influence the Iranian nation. But you showed that they were chasing a mirage....This year, more than before, they tried to weaken the Quds Day, but the glorious Quds Day in Tehran showed the whole world the direction in which the revolution and Iran was heading. It showed that their (Western politicians) tricks, spending money and political evilness does not influence the Iranian nation.

0940 GMT: Flight from Friday. When I saw the newsflash, I thought the Supreme Leader was making a signficant effort at compromise: "Iran's Khamenei signals easing in election tension." Turns out, however, that the supposed shift is only that of an Associated Press headline writer who must be unaware of the drama and tension of Qods Day. The Supreme Leader's comment, in a speech marking the end of Ramadan, was simply a vague allusion to a possible easing of the pressure of trials: "What a suspect says in a court against a third party has no legitimate validity."

0840 GMT: Report that Mehdi and Ali Montazeri, two of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's grandchildren detained on Monday, were released Saturday.

0745 GMT: It's Not Just Tehran. Maryam at Keeping the Change has posted an overview of the Qods Day marches in Shiraz, Isfahan, Tabriz, Rasht, and Mashad. We've posted the account of one participant in the Isfahan march in a separate entry.

0630 GMT: It seems we are now in a relatively quiet phase of this crisis. Very little has come out on the Government side since Friday, possibly because Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and close aides are now focused on the President's trip to New York and speech to the United Nations General Assembly, and the oppposition has also chosen to assess the outcome of Qods Day before making its next move. Only Mehdi Karroubi's meeting with medical faculty, featuring his comments that he will press claims in court of detainee abuse the "would make the Shah look good", broke the silence.

Instead, as we noted as the end of last night, the biggest ripple was a dispute, full of symbolism, over whether Ramadan ended with the appearance of the crescent of the moon last night. Senior clerics, countering the Supreme Leader, said no. The national holiday has still been declared of course, and Eid al-Fitr will still be celebrated by many, but it will be interesting to see if the senior clerics' claim resonates with Iranian people.
Sunday
Sep202009

Iran's Qods Day: A Participant On the Isfahan Marches

The Latest from Iran (20 September): Is Ramadan Over?
Iran: Another Qods Day Participant Writes
Iran’s Qods Day: The Participants Speak
Latest Iran Video: More from Qods Day (18-19 September)
Iran Video: Qods Day Protests (18 September)

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IRAN QODS DAY 3A long-time Enduring America reader writes:

I give you what I know. I today attended the protest in Esfahan. This was done on purpose cause I wanted to personally make sure there is protest in more than one city. Also because we used the cover of the 3-day vacation to demonstrate. So it worked.

There was a lot of people. My estimate is close to 3 to 4 thousand people, but only where I was, near Shams Abad. There was a lot of people near Tohid/Nazar square, also there was people near Char Bag and also Khajoo Bridge. It was strange compared to Tehran protests, but it was there and it was way bigger than I expected.

Esfahanis have funny slogans, and they were very very nice to me and my family, cause we looked like we were from out of town. asiji were early in the day hassling the young people, especially boys about their dress and hair. Anything to get under peoples skin early.

For what it is worth, I thought we would have 1 hour of protests before we were either arrested or gassed. It was going on for a good four hours and I say there was at least 10 to 15 thousand protesters all over the streets.
Saturday
Sep192009

The Latest from Iran: Challenge Renewed (19 September)

NEW Iran After Qods Day: What Next for the Green Movement (The Sequel)?
NEW Iran: Another Qods Day Participant Writes
Latest Iran Video: More from Qods Day (18-19 September)
NEW Iran: The Five Lessons of Qods Day
Qods Day Video Special: The Black-and-White Soccer Game
Iran’s Qods Day: The Participants Speak
Qods Day: The Discussion Continues
Iran Qods Day: Snap Analysis and Summary Translation of Ahmadinejad Speech

The Latest from Iran (18 September): Qods Day
NEW Iran Video: Qods Day Protests (18 September)

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IRAN QODS DAY 42200 GMT: We took a break tonight to recuperate from the drama of Friday. To be honest, almost all the chatter is a recycling of the events and images of Qods Day.

There are intriguing developments surrounding the clerical opposition to the Government. Mowj-e-Sabz reports that Grand Ayatollah Montazeri was forced to cancel an important annual prayer.

The Green Movement is highlighting the possibility that marjas, the highest-ranking senior clerics, will not declare that Ramadan has ended Sunday and can be celebrated with the feast of Eid al-Fitr. In particular, it is noted that the websites of Ayatollah Montazeri and of Ayatollah Sane'i have not yet declared that the Holy Month is over.

Ayatollahs Mousavi-Ardebili, Safi-Golpaygani, and Bayat-Zanjani are also declaring that they have not seen the crescent of the moon. And now Hojatoleslam Taghdiri, the head of the crescent observation committee of  Tehran Province, has said that there is no way that the crescent can be observed tonight, permitting Eid al-Fitr to proceed tomorrow.

The statements are significant because they defy the declaration of the Supreme Leader that Sunday is the end of Ramadan holiday.

1540 GMT: In his first statement after Qods Day, Mehdi Karroubi has told medical faculty of the great opportunity "to expose in court atrocities which would have made the Shah look good".

1250 GMT: The Quds Day Football Mystery (continued). Two readers continue the tireless effort to sort out what happened with last night's Iranian state TV broadcast of the Esteghlal-Estell Azin match (video in separate entry and see 0740 GMT). Both note that the game was re-broadcast, after the "problems" with live transmission. One notes, "It was in colour and not in black and white as reported. There were many Esteghlal fans in the stadium but almost all of them came in blue. You could see glimpses of green colour among them, but, as I said, about 95% of the came in blue. I also couldn't hear any opposition slogans during the game, to be honest."

The other reader has the possible answer: "They started over from the beginning of the match, in color, with the sound edited from another match (so Green chants could not be heard). Also they cut away several times to another camera on the sideline for showing reaction shots of the bench/coaches, even though they said there was only one camera in Azadi Stadium."

1240 GMT: Maryam at Keeping the Change has taken on the task of sifting through the information to establish "whether Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, and Mohammad Khatami...took part in the Qods Day demonstrations". Her thoughtful but provocative assessment:
Mousavi and Rafsanjani could have been forced to appear in the protests against their wills or may have been given the choice to either stay away from the demonstrations or attend the government-sponsored rallies. The men may have calculated that failing to appear at the marches would be more damaging than participating in the pro-government demonstrations....The utilitarian calculations of the two men and the propaganda potential of these images aside, the presence of Mousavi, in particular, at the pro-government rally may prove to have undermined his "Opposition"-credentials, giving the impression (whether true or misleading) that he has become less assertive, more prone to succumb to government pressure, and/or is in a weakened position vis vis the government. As for Rafsanjani, a similar analysis may be appropriate, though his historical tendency to walk a fine line between competing interest groups militates against rushing to judgment on his motivations.

1130 GMT: Definitely a lull after the storm of events. We've now completed and posted the analyses of Mr Smith, "What Next for the Green Movement (The Sequel)?", and of Scott Lucas, "Iran: The Five Lessons of Qods Day". We've also got a new account from a participant in the demonstration and a new video thread as well as yesterday's video collection.

0830 GMT: Contrary to our fears at the end of yesterday, it appears that the regime's restrictions on the Internet were more to stifle the Qods Day protests than as a forerunner of an even more intense crackdown of arrests. Some Internet services have been restored in Iran.

0820 GMT: Three of the grandchildren of Ayatollah Montazeri, arrested yesterday, have been released. Three of his grandchildren remain in detention.

0740 GMT: The Qods Day Football Match. Our quirkiest story of the day, complete with video, gets even better. The latest account is that state television's coverage was delayed and limited to one black-and-white camera not because of the fears of Green symbols and chants but because the regime's efforts to limit communications hindered IRIB's technical systems. (I think the Blue team won 2-0 but I can't tell which one was Blue.)

0600 GMT: To be honest, this is a holding entry. For the first time in 24 hours, it is possible to draw breath and take a reflective step back, as the news from Iran is slow this morning, in part because of the Government's attempts to close down information on the scale of its setback yesterday, more because everyone is trying to take in exactly what happened on Qods Day.

The regime will try to regain its balance today. Press TV has a lovely example. Its story just before I went to bed was "Iran's Opposition Marches on Qods Day", a recognition that "supporters of Iran's opposition movement...joined the major annual commemorative rally showing their loyalty to their leaders". This morning the website is back on the proper line: "Iranians March in Solidary with Palestinians".

But, barring a swift crackdown by the Government, with a wave of high-profile arrests, the question of initiative will be with the opposition. What can the leaders and the Green Wave do with the opportunity offered by the tens of thousands who, after all that has been thrown at protest to make it go away, "won" with their defiance --- in anger, sadness, hope, and more than a bit of humour --- yesterday?

That's what EA staff will work on now. The first part of our opening analysis is now posted.
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