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Monday
Sep142009

UPDATED Iran: Complete Text of Soroush Letter to the Supreme Leader

The Latest from Iran (13 September): Lull — Storm?

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SOROUSHUPDATE 13 September 2130 GMT: The Supreme Leader's represenative to the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has called Abdolkarim Soroush an "apostate".

On Thursday we noted that the prominent Iranian political philosopher Abdolkarim Soroush had written an open letter to the Supreme Leader to express his conviction that Iranians would triumph over "the decline of religious despotism". Several readers  expressed their interest in the text. We initially posted a summary from Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook pages, but our excellent readers have now found another summary and a translation (originally on the blog page of the excellent HomyLafayette). The translation is posted, followed by the summary from the Mousavi team:

Celebration for the disappearance of religious despotism

The blood-stained wedding ended and the false groom left the bridal chamber.
The ballot boxes shook and the fiends danced in the darkness.
The victims stood watching in their white shrouds and the prisoners, their hands cut off, clapped.
And the world, one eye filled with rage, the other with hatred, bore off the groom.
The veil was lifted and blood flowed from the republic's porch.
The Devil laughed and then the stars were extinguished and virtue fell into a slumber.

Mr. Khamenei,

In this drought of virtue and justice, everyone has complaints against you, but I thank you.

Not that I have no complaints. I do, and many, but I have set them before God. Your ears have become so full of the praises and caresses of sycophants that they have no room for the voices of those with grievances. But I thank you greatly. You said, 'The sanctity of the regime has been rended' and it has been disgraced. Believe me, in all my life I had never received such good news from anyone. My compliments to you for announcing the misery and affliction of religious despotism.

I am joyous that finally the sighs of morning prayers have reached the celestial spheres and awakened the fires of divine vengeance. You were prepared to allow God to be shamed, to preserve yourself from shame. To have people turn their backs on piety and religion, but not turn their backs to your guardianship. That tradition and the path and truth be crumpled up, so that not a wrinkle would befall your leadership. But God did not want this. The pained hearts and muzzled mouths and spilled blood and cut hands did not want it and prevented it. The pure and the devout and the prophets did not want it. The deprived and the peacemakers and the oppressed and the righteous prevented it.

'The fairy hides her face as the fiend is about,' (NB Soroush is quoting a line from the beloved Hafez's ode number 64) this is the story of your republic of guardianship. Praise God that the veil of this fiend's false purity has been torn. His secrets have been disclosed, his hands opened, and his guilt placed before the sunlight. And the world has looked upon its naked form with anger and astonishment.

Mr. Khamenei,

I know that you are passing through bitter and hard times. You have committed an offense, a severe offense. I explained this offense to you twelve years ago. I told you to choose freedom as your method. Forget that it is virtuous and just, choose it as a method of successful governance. Is this what you want? Why are you doing things backwards? Why do you send denouncers and spies among the people to look into their hearts and pull words from their mouths through trickery, and then report lies and truths to you? Leave the press, political parties, associations, critics, teachers, writers... alone. The people will express themselves in a thousand ways and cast open their windows to you and help you in organizing the country and the system. Don't strangle the press. The press is the breath of society. But you took dead ends and weaving paths. And now your are under the spell of nothingness and have become the prisoner of a closed regime that you yourself created long ago, in which neither criticism, nor opinions, nor science, nor information flourish. You think that by reading confidential bulletins or listening to subservient advisers, you will grasp the reality of what is going on. Both the election of Khatami and the green election of Mousavi must be obvious to you, otherwise disdain and the charms of despotism would not have chased away the knowledge and shrewdness within you. And now, to make up for that sin, which is due to ignorance and despotism, you are turning to even greater crimes. You are washing blood with blood in order to regain purity.

Treason and fraud were not enough, you turned to murder and crime. Treason and crime were not enough, you added the rape of prisoners to everything else. Murder and rape and fraud were still not enough, you added accusations of spying and dishonor to the lot. You did not spare dervishes or clerics or writers or students. And in the end, you reward the killers and wrongdoers. Then you laugh in everyone's face and take a poor soldier to task for stealing an electric razor. (NB Soroush is referring to the student movement of July 1999 in Iran. Dormitories were raided, students beaten and arrested, and an unknown number of people killed. The death toll is generally considered to be at least four. The ensuing trial acquitted all police commanders and security officers, except for one soldier who was fined and imprisoned for stealing an electric razor from the student dorms, and a police officer who was jailed for assault.)

I was amazed by God's patience.

[...]

I knew that bereaved mothers and fathers were weeping behind closed doors and asking God, Save us from this place of oppression and send us succor. [...] The prisons were temples where worshippers genuflected day and night, and prayed -- and are still praying -- to God for the collapse of the guardianship.

When Neda Agha Soltan was martyred, her chest pierced by oppression's bullet, I wailed to God, Do You not hear the voice of the people? (NB Neda means voice in Farsi) As Jesus said on the cross, I asked 'Father, why have You forsaken us?' [...]

Until that day when I heard that forced admission, I mean those life-giving words, 'The sanctity of the regime has been rended.' It was as if the words had come from You, God. I knelt and thanked You. [...]

Mr. Khamenei,

I want to tell you that the page has turned and the regime's fortunes have shifted. It has been disgraced. [...] Even God has turned His face and taken His light from you. Those acts you committed in secret places and behind curtains have been revealed. [...] Even the path of repentance has been closed to you. Religion will not intercede in your favor, you who have lost legitimacy. The green Iran will no longer be that black Iran of devastation. This movement's whiteness and greenness have taken precedence over the blackness of your tyranny. The earth and water and fire and clouds and winds... are aligned against you on God's orders.

For years, your cohorts and agents, under the umbrella of your protection and guardianship, savaged the people like hungry jackals and took safety and justice away from them. [...] They took them prisoner, like an invaded tribe, trampled their rights, plundered their freedoms, broke their dignity, subjugated their thoughts, and turned their religion upside-down. They started producing sanctities as if in a factory and sold superstition as religion. They shoved their treasonous hands into the people's ballot boxes. They placed the universities under the supervision of the uneducated. They filled a house of woes called the Islamic Republic's radio-television with lies and insults and gave the nation lessons on how to despair and be slaves. They created fake and extravagant gatherings and sold lies to the world about how the people loved the regime of the Supreme Leader. In prisons and houses of death, they murdered, raped, committed injustices, assaulted, and tortured to an extent unseen even during the Mongol invasion. They trampled the law and encouraged the science of ignorance and fanaticism. They lifted up the benighted and pushed down the wise. They took joy from the young and dignity from elders. They created colorful ayatollahs and obtained heavy fatwas from them. [...] Their psychosis about imaginary enemies created daily crises. People were imprisoned and ridiculous confessions were placed in their mouths and horrendous punishments were meted out. [...]

[These acts] lit a blaze in the conscience of the people that burned the house of the guardianship. The post-election protest was neither a military exercise, nor sedition, nor the Zarrar Mosque -- a term you have coined in your mint and employ often. (NB The Zarrar Mosque, mentioned in the Koran, was built by religious hypocrites to tempt the true Muslims.) It was an outburst of honor over plunder. The people, with awakened consciences, defended their vote, their elected choice, their rights as citizens, and their freedom of thought in a calm and collected manner against those who would plunder their vote and rights and freedom. The thieves were up in arms, but we heard God's laughter. He was satisfied with us. He had heard our prayers and had disgraced the murderers and the wrongdoers. Taraneh Mousavi's death was the death knell of tyranny.

Mr. Khamenei,

...

The green movement has been established with determination to create a green Iran. This movement has found its green martyrs, green poets and poetry, its green literature and arts and phrases. It is the fruit of 20 years of efforts on the part of intellectuals and activists in the political and cultural spheres. You are wasting your time trying to break it with your militarism.

This lion is not one that you can escape/There's no escaping the curse of God [Soroush is reciting from the mystical poet Rumi. The two lines immediately preceding this quote are: 'You bark like rabid dogs/You deny the Koran's truth'.]

The fading fear of the people and the vanishing legitimacy of the concept of Supreme Leadership are the greatest achievements of the revolt of honor over plunder. The slumbering lion of courage and resistance has been awakened. Neither usurpation by the military, nor rape committed by the corrupt; neither dust thrown in the eyes of humanity, nor hot air to puff up the [regime's] ragged clothes; neither dependence on animal savagery, nor attacks on human sciences [Soroush is referring to a recent speech by Khamenei in which the Supreme Leader voiced concern about human sciences taught in Iranian universities because they instil secularism.]; neither the flattery of flatterers in your pay, nor the poetry of poem-selling fools; none of these will bend the back of the resistance. Religious tyranny has been besieged by blasphemy and religion, and it is time to cut it down in the green fields of the movement. We have asked this of God and God is with us.

There is no sweeter proof of your turning fortunes than the fact that all your celebrations have become mourning ceremonies. And whatever tweaked your mirth once, now brings you tears and tremors. The universities whom you wanted to kiss your feet, now provoke your nightmares. Street demonstrations, the usual gatherings, Ramadan, Moharram, the Hajj, and mournful prayers have all become curses which work against you. [The regime has had to cancel one event after another to prevent protesters from using the ceremonies for their own ends.]

We are of a fortunate generation. We shall celebrate the disappearance of religious despotism. A moral society and a government beyond religion are the beacons of our Green nation.

We shall cherish and esteem freedom, that same freedom which you did not value and unto which you heaped injustices. You were sold fascism and told that freedom is whimsical and permissive....If you had allowed the press to be free, it would have divulged corruption and the corrupt would not have dared engage in their misdeeds. If you had allowed people to criticize you, you would not have fallen into the abyss of dictatorship and the corruption of power. The people's true words would have dispelled your daze of ignorance. They are the schools of the nation, not "enemy bases". And what would have been so terrifying if the doors of those schools had been kept open and you had been able to learn there?

We will cherish religion, that same religion that you made a tool of your power and in whose name you gave lessons in slavery and melancholy. You did not understand that joy and freedom walk alongside true faith....and that religious power corrupts both religion and power. Governing a joyous, free, informed, and nimble people is an achievement, not lording over a bound and dejected nation.

I ask myself who I am writing this for? For a regime whose luck has turned?...And then I recall the words of God:

When some of them said: "Why do ye preach to a people whom Allah will destroy or visit with a terrible punishment?" Said the preachers: "To discharge our duty to your Lord, and perchance they may fear Him." (Sura 164 "The Heights")

God, bear witness. I who have spent a lifetime longing for religion and teaching religion, distance myself from this despotic regime's oppression, and if I once aided the evil-doers out of error or sin, I ask for your forgiveness and absolution. Oh God of wisdom and virtue, accept our prayers...and leave not your friends in the hands of enemies.

Call the winds to tear away despotism's tabernacle and call fire to burn the roots of oppression. Call the seas to drown the pharaohs and the earth to bury the qaruns (NB According to the Koran, 'Qarun was a man from the people of Moussa, but he oppressed them.') Call the clouds and the rains that they may rain grace and justice and joy and compassion upon this persecuted people, and that this barren land of the oppressors may become the flower field of the just.

Abdolkarim Soroush

The Mousavi Facebook summary

Abdolkarim Soroush, a prominent Iranian writer and resercher, and famous Islamic intellectual has harshly criticized Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and predicted the downfall of his regime in an open letter.

In a letter to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei [the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic] Abdolkarim Soroush, the reformist writer and intellectual, has predicted that the opposition will celebrate the “downfall of religious dictatorship”in Iran.

Mr. Soroush in this letter issued on Wednesday September 10th has considered the decay of legitimacy of the Supreme Leader as the greatest achievement of post-election events. He writes: “getting over the fear by citizens and decadence of Supreme Leader’s legitimacy were the greatest achievements of this honorable protest against the incursion and it wakened bravery and resistance [in the people].”

Abdolkarim Soroush who had endorsed Mehdi Karroubi (one of the reformist candidates in the presidential election) writes:”we are a prosperous generation. We will celebrate the decay of religious dictatorship. An ethical society and a non religious government are shining in the future of our honorable people.”

Following the results of the presidential election in Iran protests were held in Tehran and some other cities. According to the judiciary officials during these peaceful protests four thousand people were arrested.

The committee formed by Mehdi Karroubi and Mirhossein Mousavi to follow up the status of the detainees has reported:”in these protests 72 people are killed, while according to the latest report released by the government officials in Iran only 36 people are killed.”

People’s Religion and the Supreme Leadership

Mr. Soroush has clearly accused the Supreme Leader of demanding power and writes:
“You were willing to sacrifice God’s prestige for yours. You would be fine if people turned their back to religion and prophecy but as long as they didn’t do it to your leadership.”

Quoting Khamenei on his post-election remarks saying:“The respect of the regime is damaged and its prestige is ravaged”, Soroush writes:”believe me I had never heard such great news in my whole life!”

In this open letter Soroush says that he had advised the Supreme leader 12 years ago to take the path of freedom as a “method” and decline the supremacy and justice [of his position].

Regarding the suppression of media and political and social activists Soroush writes: “you took the wrong path and now you are trapped and have become victims of the closed system that you created a long time ago in which you could not tolerate any criticism, opinion, science or news.”

This religious thinker, who lives in exile due to the pressure from radicals and is currently teaching in a university in the USA, has accused Ayatollah Khamenei of “crime” in addition to “fraud”.

Soroush writes:” you started the crime as if your betrayal and fraud were not enough; since betrayal and crime did not suffice, you added the rape of prisoners, since that was not yet sufficient you accused them of espionage and dishonor; you did not even have mercy on the dervishes, the religious figures, writers or students and killed them all.”
He is pointing at the reports that have been released in the past months regarding murder, torture and rape of the protesters during the post-election events in Iran.

Soroush, who used to collaborate with the “Cultural Revolution Campaign” in the beginning of the Islamic Revolution regime, says:”God! I hold you witness; I, who have always been concerned about the religion and have taught religion, seek refuge from the injustice of this dictatorship; if I have ever mistakenly and unconsciously assisted the tyrants I seek forgiveness and salvation from you.”
Sunday
Sep132009

Iran: English Translation of Judiciary Report on Karroubi Allegations

Iran: The Karroubi Letter to The Iranian People, Part 1 (14 September)
The Latest from Iran (14 September): Countdown to Friday

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KARROUBI3We reported yesterday on the damning response of the three-member panel (Deputy Head of Judiciary Ebrahim Raeesi, Attorney General Gholam-Hosein Mohsen Ejeie, and President of the Presidential Body of the Judiciary Ali Khalaf) to the allegations of detainee abuse brought by Mehdi Karroubi. Evan Siegel of Iran Rises has translated and posted the report.

The conclusion? "Not only is there no evidence indicating the rape, as claimed by Mr. Karoubi, and the claims raised are without documentation and empty of truth, but the claims and documents presented are all forgeries and assembled to deceive public opinion."

His Eminence Ayatollah Larijani (May his lengthy grandeur increase!)
Honorable President of the Judiciary

Greetings.

In the aftermath of Mr. Mehdi Karoubi’s sending a letter to Your Excellency alleging the persecution and rape of some persons arrested during the riots of the recent months and the forwarding of this letter to the Tribunal for earnest pursuit and it hereby announces its findings:

After the arrival of Karoubi’s letter, he was immediately summoned to come before the Attorney General to be present at the Tribunal to present explanations and submit documents concerning the claims.

Mr. Karoubi was present at the appointed time at the Tribunal at the Attorney General and then he answered the question of the whereabouts of his claims and documents concerning the rape of some persons arrested in the recent riots as follows:

I have heard matters in this regard and as a result of pressure and psychological discomfort, wrote a letter to Mr. Hashemi Rafsanjani. After ten days, I posted it on a website and published it.

In response to the question, “Who were the people whom you had in mind and how did you pursue this issue?” he replied:
1. Taraneh Mousavi

I have not seen Taraneh Mousavi or the members of her family, but have heard from people connected with Mr. Mir Hosein Mousavi and the members of a committee that Mr. Mousavi and I had formed,2 and I had no certainty but went purely by what I had heard, and have no documentation in this regard.

2. A Sh

At first, I had heard from members of our party, the National Trust Party, that this individual had said that three people had put me in a car and took me to another neighborhood. There, there were other people who blindfolded me so I could not see anyone and recognize anyone, and subject to repeated beatings. I was raped as I stood with my hands tied behind my backs and hung from the ceiling so that my feet barely touched the ground. I called this person and heard his statement and then one of the members of the National Trust Party put his statement on a CD, a copy of which I turned over to you.

Mr. Karoubi was then asked, “On what day and in which riot was A Sh arrested?”

Mr. Karoubi replied, “I do not know. I did not ask. But he was not arrested during a demonstration or a clash.” He said that she was alone on Jordan Street and three people put him in a car and carried him off.

* A third person who did not claim that she was raped. “I did not see her and have only heard about her from people connected with the National Trust Party and Mr. Mir Hosein Mousavi. This individual, for her part, was not in a demonstration or a clash, but said that several people had arrested her and subjected her to such severe beatings that her head and face and many of her limbs were l wounded. Her family photographed her and all her limbs and I [Karoubi] have presented a copy of these pictures to you.”

* Ms. M A

This lady was introduced to me by members of the NTP and I spoke to her. She made no claim to having been raped, but said that from the first day of her arrest, they carried her off to the Intelligence [?] Administration and there, subject to beatings and insults and when she responded, they tore off her clothes and put their hands on her body.

* Someone else, named S[aideh] P[uraqayi]

This lady was the son of a martyr and several members of her family had been martyred and were supporters [presumably referring to the family] of Mr. Mousavi who would call out “Allahu akbar” at night with her mother. They came and arrested her in her home and then subjected her to a beating and, after several days, secretly buried her, while the lower part of her body was burned with acid. Some of Mr. Mir Hosein’s people went to her home and I have heard that Mr. Mir Hosein Mousavi participated in the funeral ceremony, and it was agreed that I would go to their home, but did not have the opportunity, but my son searched for them.

Read rest of report...
Sunday
Sep132009

The Latest from Iran (13 September): Lull --- Storm?

NEW Iran: English Translation of Judiciary Report on Karroubi Allegations
NEW Iran: The Soroush Letter to the Supreme Leader
Transcript: Israel and Its (Lack of) Options on Iran
The Latest from Iran (12 September): Reassessing
Iran: Is the Supreme Leader Killing Off the Opposition?

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RAHNAVARD QODS DAY1820 GMT: The Norooz newssite, as well as the main site (see 1550 GMT), is down. Mowj-e-Sabz is up again.

1800 GMT: Will He or Won't He? Rumours and chatter throughout the day on whether Hashemi Rafsanjani will lead this Friday's prayers on Qods Day. Entekhab News is one example of the line that Rafsanjani has not withdrawn.

1608 GMT: President Ahmadinejad has appointed Mohammad Reza Rahimi, a vice president during his first four-year term, as his First Vice President.

1600 GMT: Rafsanjani Breaks Cover? If this story is true, this could be an indication that the former President is still allied with the Green movement in the challenge to the Government: the Karroubi website Etemade Melli reports that Hashemi Rafsanjani will resign all his positions, which include head of the Expediency Council and of the Assembly of Experts, if Mehdi Karroubi is detained.

1550 GMT: Both the Green movement website Mowj-e-Sabz and the reformist site Norooz, which reported it was under heavy cyber-attack from the Iranian authorities, appear to be down. Etemade Melli (Saham News) is still up.

1330 GMT: Beheshti Freed. The Kalameh website of Mir Hossein Mousavi broke the news that Mousavi's chief advisor, Alireza Beheshti, has benn freed after five days in detention. Other reports indicate that members of Imam Khomeini's family met Beheshti soon after his release.

1210 GMT: Threats Everywhere. In addition to the warnings being thrown at Mehdi Karroubi, Fars reports that the President's office will sue Grand Ayatollah Yusef Sane'i for allegedly insulting Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: “Following an insulting speech made in a ceremony by Mr Sanei against the president, the president’s legal office has prepared a complaint against him. The complaint will be submitted to the Special Court for Clergy."1200 GMT: Trials Resume. Agence France Presse reports, from the Islamic Republic News Agency, that the fifth Tehran trial of post-election detainees will be held Monday morning. Some Iranian reporters will be allowed into the court, but foreign media will be barred.

IRNA is also headlining the opinion of "a group of activists, politicians, and MPs" that, as no one has judicial immunity, Mehdi Karroubi should be tried for false claims of detainee abuses.

1100 GMT: A report from an Iranian activist via Twitter that Dr. Ebrahim Amini, a board member of Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Melli party, has been arrested in Shiraz. If true, the regime has now arrested three members of the Reform Committee that was investigating detainee abuse.

1050 GMT: Controlling the Enquiry? An interesting article in Etemad, summarised in Reuters, points both to the regime's efforts to show it is doing something about claims of detainee abuse and to keep the initiative out of the hands of Mehdi Karroubi.

Mohammad-Kazem Bahrami, head of the Armed Forces' Judicial Organization, said that 90 people had filed complaints of mistreatment at the Kahrizak detention centre.
He added that there had been further arrests, although he gave no details on the identities or positions of the suspects: "Until Wednesday, seven people who were accused of being involved in the case have been detained."

There was no mention in the article of Karroubi, who has been pressing the cases of abused detainees.

1025 GMT: Apologies for the glitch (my error, rather than technical, I'm afraid) which took this page down for an hour.

0910 GMT: We've followed up on a story earlier this week by posting a summary of the open letter from Iranian political philosopher Abdolkarim Soroush to the Supreme Leader.

0830 GMT: A late start for us this morning, as we recover from a week of tension. Very little emerging from Iran this morning, with the best of the Western media such as The New York Times focusing on yesterday's rejection by the three-member judiciary panel --- for "lack of evidence" --- of Mehdi Karroubi's allegations of detainee abuse.

One piece of breaking news: Mamosta Borhan Ali, the Sunni Friday Prayer leader in Sanandaj in Kurdestan Province was assassinated on Saturday night.
Saturday
Sep122009

The Latest from Iran (12 September): Reassessing

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Rooftop Chants Continue (11 September)
NEW Iran: Is the Supreme Leader Killing Off the Opposition?
NEW Transcript/Snap Analysis: Washington’s Welcome to Iran
Iran: The Complete Translation of the Supreme Leader’s Friday Prayer Address
Iran: Josh Shahryar’s Snap Analysis of the Supreme Leader’s Speech
The Latest from Iran (11 September): Prayers and Politics


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RAHNAVARD QODS DAY2010 GMT: The Facebook page of Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi features a new poster (left) with this message: "Following a new wave of censorship, our main focus will be on Green Qods Day. This will be a day to protest the assault against us, show our presence, and support Green leaders like Karoubi who have always supported us."

1955 GMT: An EA correspondent offers a reminder of the significance of whether or not Hashemi Rafsanjani shows up to lead this Friday's prayers on Qods Day: "Rafsanjani has led the Friday prayers on Qods Day for the past few years. It would be yet another change in tradition --- as well as yet another ominous proof of the "change" that has befallen on Iran after the elections --- should he miss this year's sermon. I guess the Rafsanjani dance will kick off tomorrow or Monday, with the usual whirlwind of rumors that will be quashed, one way or the other, on Tuesday or Wednesday."

1920 GMT: The Imam Khomeini Institute, which has been under recent pressure from the Government including the cancellation of Ramadan ceremonies, has tried to fight back. It has filed a legal complaint against the pro-Government newspaper Kayhan for slander and defamation.

1910 GMT: Karroubi Stays Visible. One of the main points of our morning analysis was that Mehdi Karroubi now occupied a vital position at a key period for the opposition movement. The cleric has not hesitated, despite the hard line of the Government. In an interview with the Italian newspaper La Stampa, he said, "If the Imam Khomeini was alive, he would have annulled these elections (and) condemned the violence and murders. What happened immediately after the elections, the arrests of thousands of members of the opposition, the murder of dozens of people and the acts of violence ... constituted a veritable coup d'etat."

1510 GMT: Kayhan Kalhor, the composer and violinist, was arrested at Imam Khomenei Airport on Friday and was released from detention on Saturday.

1410 GMT: Repeating --- Rafsanjani's Stand? Raja News claims confirmation that the former President will not be leading prayers this Friday on Qods Day. However, Ayande News reports that Rafsanjani's office has denied the withdrawal.

1405 GMT: The CNN website still hasn't noticed that the Supreme Leader led Friday prayers.

1400 GMT: Rafsanjani Makes His Stand? If Hashemi Rafsanjani does not lead prayers this Friday on Qods Day, his opportunity for a political move may come four days later. The Assembly of Experts will convene for its regular meeting on 22 September.

1330 GMT: The Green movement's Mowj-e-Sabz is claiming that the National Security Council has banned newspapers from reporting on "Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Presidential Election".

1325 GMT: Reports that reformist activist Mohammad Reza Jalaeipour has been released from detention on $200,000 bail.

1305 GMT: The Day's First Major Development? The three-member judiciary panel investigating Mehdi Karroubi's claims of abuse of detainees has declared that they are false. In a letter to the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, they have also raised the possibility that Karroubi could be subject to charges of libel and slander.

1245 GMT: A bit of news on the slowest day since 12 June (what more than one outlet has called "the lull before the storm"). Hayedeh Tabesh, a member of the 1 million signatures campaign, was summoned to the Ministry of Intelligence for questioning. More than 50 members of the campaign have been arrested and/or put on trial.

0900 GMT: Playing catch-up during a slow period, we've noted an interesting turn of events (given the Western media's representation of the latest Iran proposals on its nuclear programme), "Washington’s Welcome to Iran".

0830 GMT: Although we're on limited service today (celebrations with relatives from the US), the lack of updates is more to do with no news coming out of Iran after yesterday's dramatic developments. We have posted an analysis of the Supreme Leader's steps, including his Friday prayers address and the reported arrest order for Mehdi Karroubi, as well as the opposition's possible response, in a separate entry.
Saturday
Sep122009

Iran: Is the Supreme Leader Killing Off the Opposition?

The Latest from Iran (12 September): Reassessing
Iran: The Complete Translation of the Supreme Leader’s Friday Prayer Address
Iran: Josh Shahryar’s Snap Analysis of the Supreme Leader’s Speech
The Latest from Iran (11 September): Prayers and Politics


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KHAMENEIKARROUBI2Last night's report, first appearing on the Iranian website Rah-e-Sabz and then extended in The New York Times, carried a double blow. First, the Supreme Leader had issued an order (reportedly two weeks ago) for the arrest of Mehdi Karroubi. Second, Hashemi Rafsanjani, after a conversation with Ayatollah Khamenei, had told aides that he was retreating from front-line politics because of the current dominance of the military

The news was so dramatic that it still has not been fully taken in. The reaction of many, inevitably, was whether that this was the defining setback for the Green movement and Rafsanjani. Will Karroubi be cowed into submission and seclusion? Is Rafsanjani saying that he will not appear at next Friday's Qods Day ceremonies? Is there no prospect of a mass response around those ceremonies?

To be honest, while those questions are vital, they're the easy ones to handle this morning. For we simply don't know. Even before the breaking news, we were watching for the reactions of the Green opposition and Rafsanjani to the Supreme Leader's address, and we're still on that watch.

If the report is true, the more immediate profitable analysis is on the relations within the Establishment. Take the assertion that the order for Karroubi's arrest was issued two weeks ago. That would put it at the end of August, before Khamenei's statement denying that the post-election conflict was a foreign-led "velvet revolution) which distanced him from the position of the Revolutionary Guard and the President and his limited but still clear criticisms of the post-election detentions.

So, if Supreme Leader issued the order for Karroubi's arrest as part of his political approach, then the questions emerge over his relationship with Ahmadinejad and the IRGC: 1) was Khamenei attempting to take the lead by showing his tough side? 2) was he now just following the hard line set by others? 3) was he doing a balancing act, setting out threats while also displaying the possibility of limited concessions as Ahmadinejad's Cabinet was being presented to Parliament?

All of this in turn presumes that the order was carefully considered before it was issued. There is always the possibility that Khamenei, who like his opponents has been under pressure and strain throughout this crisis, had a "Thomas a Becket" moment, declaring, "Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest?" The best observers yesterday (those who listened or saw Khamenei's speech, rather than those who lifted their accounts from the Reuters summary) indicated that the Supreme Leaders seemed nervous and even a bit fraught, crying at one point in the first part of the sermon.

For now, therefore, considering the report in connection with the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayers address, two thoughts:

1. It appears, in line with our recent analyses, that Khamenei is scrambling for position, not against the opposition but against his President and his military. Add to that the significant factor that the Supreme Leader is taking fire from senior clerics in Qom, which Josh Shahryar noted yesterday. So, while trying to secure his "leadership", he also has to be aware that if he is too ham- and heavy-fisted with the opposition, his religious position will be under further tension.

2. If one has to pick out a symbolic figure for the opposition, it is now Mehdi Karroubi. Rafsanjani's reported withdrawal from an immediate public battle (a development I take more seriously than the claim of the arrest order, as it came --- as fact or public-relations spin --- from a Rafsanjani aide) puts him to the side for the moment. Mir Hossein Mousavi is trying to mark with statements but appears to be able to do little beyond that.

Karroubi is the one opposition leader with a significant communications network --- significant enough that the Government tried to knock it out with their raids this week, significant enough to survive that attack. He is the leader carrying the documents about the most symbolic and "real" political issue within the Establishment, the alleged abuse of detainees. He is still working within the system, with his negotiations with the judiciary, as well as appealing to those outside it.

So the arrest order, if it was issued, was a sword of Damocles suspended over Karroubi's head. Misbehave and we take you out. And even if that order doesn't exist, then the Supreme Leader's closing statement in yesterday's speech does: don't make a fuss at Qods Day.

Yes, yesterday was dramatic. Yes, it was tense. But, no, it is not a resolution.

On to next Friday.
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