The Latest from Iran (28 September): Signals of Power

NEW Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Scott Lucas in La Stampa
Non-Proliferation and “Iran’s Nukes”: Chris Emery on Al Jazeera English
Latest Iran Video: The Universities Protest (28 September)
NEW Translating Iran: The New Site for Latest Documents

Iran: English Text of Dastgheib Letter to Assembly of Experts (22 September)
The Latest from Iran (27 September): Is There a Compromise Brewing?

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

1940 GMT: Pedestrian offers some additional information on the events at the University of Tehran today. Contrary to our earlier report (0940 GMT), Minister of Science and Technology Kamran Daneshjoo was present. However, as Pedestrian notes from photos of the gathering, the crowd was sparse with almost no students in the audience.

1640 GMT: Getting Serious with Law-Breakers. Two stories showing the Government's firm and not-in-any-way-nervous response to protest. Drivers who honk their car horns during protests have been warned that they may be summoned to court. Fans attending the biggest match in Iranian league football, the Tehran derby between Esteglhal and Persepolis, should expect special security measures (which, of course, are in no way connected with recent Green Wave protests at football matches).

1635 GMT: Credit to the BBC. Earlier today we were less than charitable about "mainstream" media who did not seem to notice that demonstrations were occurring at Tehran University. The BBC's main site has posted a story with video.

1630 GMT: HomyLafayette has published an excellent overview of the sell-off of the Iranian state telecommunications company, in which a consortium linked to the Revolutionary Guard took a 51 percent stake.

1620 GMT: The Facebook site connected with Mir Hossein Mousavi has posted an extract from his statement today: "Ironically those who feel defeated in this year’s Qods day events were those who benefited the most from it. They found out in the most obvious way that three months of unprecedented violence not only did not have slightest effect on people’s presence, but rather made it more extensive."

Mousavi also made an indirect response to those who questioned his appearance at the rally amidst "pro-Government" demonstrators: "In the last Friday of this year’s Ramadan, I was present among those who some of them were welcoming me with their fists and were wishing my death. I was reviewing their faces as we were participating in the rally and I saw that l love them and that our victory is not something that anyone would be defeated in it."

1610 GMT: The BBC Persian report on the Assembly of Experts plan (1545 GMT) may not mention details but another account does allege that three conditions have been attached to the proposal: 1) no mention of "velvet revolution"; 2) no condemnation of street protests; and 3) no statement of support for the Ahmadinejad Government.

1555 GMT: Excuse of the Day. As long-time readers might recall, Enduring America has a special Swine Flu crisis team. So we were impressed to see the Iranian Government suddenly invoke the virus to close down universities for a week. We are certain that this is an imminent threat, even more imminent than Iran's nuclear programme, so that the closure has nothing to do with today's demonstrations. After all, Government ministers said in July that swine flu might delay the start of the academic year, a statement which was entirely unconnected with the political protests that were occurring at the time.

1545 GMT: The Rafsanjani Plan? BBC Persian reports the statement of Hashemi Rafsanjani that he brought ideas from the Expediency Council to last week's Assembly of Experts meeting for a resolution of the political crisis. Details of the plan were not given.

1525 GMT: It appears that all websites connected with Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi are now down.

1405 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has written another letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani, pressing the former President on how far he and the Assembly of Experts will seek to change the system and its handling of issues including the abuse of detainees (the subject of Karroubi's first letter to Rafsanjani in late July) but also privatisations benefitting the Revolutionary Guards, social questions, and the propaganda of State media.

1350 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has issued a new statement on the "turning point" of the Qods Day demonstrations. He has also argued against further sanctions on Iran, for example, over its nuclear programmes, as the Iranian people have suffered enough under their "coup government".

1225 GMT: Latest news is dominated by what is coming out of Iran on the university protests. Not that anyone in the "mainstream" media is taking a bit of notice.

Indeed, there is a de facto alliance between Iranian state media and its "Western" counterparts to ignore the demonstrations in favour of narrow attention to Missiles, Missiles, Missiles. Fars News' triumphalism or Press TV's headline, "IRGC: We test fired upgraded missile models", can be swapped with CNN's lead story, "Iran fires off long-range missiles in latest test" or the BBC's "Iran tests longest range missiles" or Al Jazeera English's "Iran tests Shahab 3 missile".

0940 GMT: Universities Open, Protests Begin. As one of our readers has noted in Comments, reports are coming in of protests at universities as they begin the new academic year. An account of the demonstrations at the University of Tehran with chants of "Death to the Dictator!" is on-line, and video of the protest at  has been posted. There is a claim of more than 1000 students demonstrating at Daneshkadeh-ye Khabar (News College).

No one from President Ahmadinejad's office was present at the opening ceremony at the University of Tehran, and the Minister of Science was also absent.

0720 GMT: Missile Games. Iranian state media has published the next part of its script, Iran Is Really, Really Tough:

The Islamic Republic of Iran has successfully tested long-range Shahab-3 missile in a military drill dubbed The Great Prophet IV in a bid to bolster its defense capabilities, Press TV has learned....Shahab-3 missiles are said to have a range of 1,300 to 2,000 kilometers.

"Western" media will now take the stage to say, "Iran is Going to Kill Israel" (filling in the name of the country, which is not mentioned in the Press TV newsflash). Israeli leaders will hint darkly that they may now have to pursue military action,  and everybody will be very, very flustered as the 1 October talks in Geneva turn from engagement into showdown.

0635 GMT: Academic Fact of the Day. Yesterday we noted the allegation of the French newspaper Liberation that the Iranian Minister of Transport, Hamid Behbahani, plagiarised from French, Canadian, and Chinese scholars in a 2006 article. An EA reader adds, from the same article, that Behbahani was the Ph.D. thesis director of....Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

0615 GMT: And let's also pay tribute to Pedestrian for this item about Hojatoleslam Dehnavi on Iranian state television on the threat of “prank calls”, warning “housewives not to get emotionally attached to the callers":

Married women shouldn’t start talking, because before long, a longing develops. One housewife told me how she gets flustered if the caller does not call for one day. One other told me to find a way to pull her from this sinkhole of corruption she’s gotten herself into. These are married women after all, with husbands. Save yourselves from this sinkhole of corruption. What will you do with your conscience?

So, to elevate this serious discussion readers, what's your favourite prank call that, of course, does not threaten innoncent housewives? (I favour, "Do you keep Prince Albert in a can?", but I don't think that translates into Farsi.)

0600 GMT: Pedestrian has more --- much more --- on Javad Larijani's assault on the Green movement (0445 GMT).

Larijani not only linked the opposition to the Muhajedin-e-Khalq (MKO), with its 30-year campaign to overthrow the Iranian Government, he directly equated Mir Hossein Mousavi with Masoud Rajavi, the long-time head of the MKO: “Mousavi lost a good future in politics. He could have remained a great figure, but...[his] betrayal of the revolution is at one with Rajavi’s.” Larijani also launched a furious verbal assault on Seyed Hassan Khomenei, the grandson of Ayatollah Khomenei: “It is very inappropriate for the Imam’s family to support a certain political faction that is being applauded by traitors and zionists.”

Perhaps most intriguing, however, is an apparent attempt by Larijani to split the opposition by refraining from an attack on Mehdi Karroubi: “Karoubi is a pleasant man and considering his influential role in the revolution, we shouldn’t be too hard on him.”

0445 GMT: While international attention is almost exclusively on the Iranian nuclear programme, with the construction of the second enrichment facility near Qom, the internal power politics are far more significant for the fate of the Ahmadinejad Government.

We've published the text of a letter by Ayatollah Dastgheib, which highlights the intense debate within the Assembly of Experts over the future of the Islamic Republic and the space that should be given to the Green opposition. Meanwhile, Mohammad Javad Larijani, the head of the Judiciary's Human Rights Division (and the brother of the Speaker of the Parliament and the head of Judiciary), has tied the Green Wave not only to Israel but to the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, which has challenged the Islamic Republic for 30 years with assassinations, bombings, and sabotage: "“Mousavi was guilty of a great sin after the revolution and launched the reformist faction in the direction of protesting the system....If they had kept themselves from being angry after the elections, they would have seen that many of the Hypocrites [People's Mujahideen Organisation of Iran, the political wing of Mujahedin-e-Khalq] and Zionists were applauding their activities.”

Fars News chooses, however, to avoid the internal disputes in favour of the Iranian challenge to the world on its military programmes. It upholds the Revolutionary Guard's praise for the "very high precision" of the missiles that Iran has test-fired in military exercises.

Iran: English Text of Dastgheib Letter to Assembly of Experts (22 September)

The Latest from Iran (27 September): Is There a Compromise Brewing?

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

It is slowly becoming clear that last week's Assembly of Experts meeting was the setting for an unprecedented level of dispute and politics. By the end of the deliberations, Ayatollah Ka'abi was circulating a petition for the expulsion of Ayatollah Dastgheib, as Hashemi Rafsanjani tactfully absented himself.

This is the Dastgheib letter (translation by Khordaad 88) demanding the Assembly take over the administration of the Constitution, criticising the suppression of dissent by the regime, and calling for an invitation to Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami to address the clerics:

In the name of the Great God,

To Honorable members of the Assembly of Experts of Supreme Leadership

May I recall several points; I hope that they would be beneficial.

1) Notes on the constitution: We are all aware that our constitution has no contradiction with Quran and the [Islamic] tradition. It is devised by the prominent clerics and the right intellectuals who have had the constitution considered by the Imam of nation (may love and mercy of God be upon him.)

But who is the guardian of this constitution? Can anybody other than the experts assume this role? Who is responsible for investigating devastations from the constitutions and who should be hold responsible for such deviations? Only the Experts can assume that role. But now why is it that when it becomes necessary to meet so that the experts could investigate deviancies from the constitution, the experts either find themselves incapable to meet or do not meet at all; even the president of the assembly who has been elected with more than 50 votes (out of 80) could not call for a meeting. Is not this just a complete ignorance on part of the Guardian Council towards the basic fundamentals of the constitution? Including the way members of the Guardian council are selected? An issue that I have suggested that the confirmations from two prominent scholars of Qom should be enough [for the selection for the members of the council] but not body paid attention. It would have been great if the honorable Ayatollah Rafsanjani had followed up so that today we wouldn’t have this problem and so many questions and concerns wouldn’t have been left without sufficient answers. People are aware that the fundamentals of Guardianship of the Islamic Juror [velayat-e-faqih] are in the constitution and they agree with it. If the constitution in not acted upon however, the fundamentals, in articles 5 and 110, will not be acted upon either.

2) Issue of desecrating Imam (Khomeini’s) loyal supporters who have put their wealth, dignities and lives for the continuation of the Islamic Republic for years: This desecration started four years ago until recently when IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran broadcast – state TV.) Prominent figures like Ayatollah Rafsanjani , Hojataleslami Karoubi, and the sires Mr. Khatami and Mir Hossein Mousavi have been berated so significantly that cries of friends of the revolution and laughter of its enemies have been heard all over. Is the drama that unfolded legal? Was it based on constitution and derived from it? If no, why did all the Experts [here] kept their silence? Is it enough to sit down and grieve?

3) Why don’t we see the suspicious hands of Hojattieh [a Shia organisation formed in 1953 opposing the Baha'i religion, Sunni Islam, and the system of velayat-e-faqih] that the great Imam saw it as a threat to the revolution – behind the scenes? Who have jumped over the three branches of power, the parliament, the judiciary and the executive?

Why doesn’t any one take responsibility for all those illegalities? Why is it that the call for justice is answered with the military forces? Is this anything other than the existence of foreigners behind the scenes?

We had great religious scholars like Sheikh Morteza Ansari, Mirza Shirazi, Seyedna-Al-Esfahani, Seyedna-Al-Yazdi and the like. None of them ever thought to devastate the society so that they can provide the context for the Coming [of Imam Mahdi].

4) What is this situation that has overcome our society, and even the parliament? Whenever anyone of an opinion, a Marja, or a scholar makes a criticism, there some that, in support of a specific group, prepare themselves to remove that person from the scenes. All just so that some could be relieved and satisfied.

5) The Experts are responsible for protecting the Islamic ordinances and the belief of people in Quran and the tradition of the prophet (May peace be upon him) and his immaculate kin. This important responsibility is not fulfilled in the current events and unfortunately the efforts of the Islamic scholars have decreased.

6) In the end, I would like to say that it is still not late to ask from this assembly and the honorable speaker to invite Mr. Mousavi, Mr. Khatami and Mr. Karoubi to say what they want to say. Do not assume that everything has ended. People have faith in you.

In other words, concealing the distrust of some part of the society and neglecting them is unfair; for instance, the objection of the Islamic scholars and professors of universities and the rest. It is important to lessen this distrust to a minimum. Such that, if it is not possible to invite Mr. Mousavi and Mr. Karoubi to this assembly the State TV invites them so that they would express their objections. If that is not possible either, they can do so through the Assembly of Expert’s website. So that the members of the Assembly can express their opinions on whether there has been a breach of the Constitution or not.

Seyed Ali-Mohamad Dastgheib
September 22, 2009

The Latest from Iran (27 September): Is There a Compromise Brewing?

NEW Iran’s Nukes: Did Gates Just Complicate the Obama Position?
NEW Transcripts: Secretary of Defense Gates on CNN, ABC
Iran's Nuclear Program: Gary Sick on the US Approach after the "Secret Plant"
Iran’s “Secret” Nuclear Plant: Israel Jumps In
Iran: The “Die Zeit” Article on Opposition and Change
Iran Video: Ahmadinejad Interview on CNN’s Larry King
The Latest from Iran (26 September): The False Flag of the Nuke Issue

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis



2100 GMT: Back to Compromise? After a day of tough signals, this paragraph on Press TV's website from President Ahmadinejad return-from-US press conference in Tehran jumps out: ""By his change of rhetoric, Obama has signaled a strong commitment in the presence of the General Assembly. If the American government is seriously pursuing the path of change, Obama's speech can be considered a start."

2045 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi's website Kalemeh is down, and Mehdi Karroubi's Tagheer is still suspended 72 hours after announcing it was going off-line for construction.

1830 GMT: Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi Giving Up Key Position? Tabnak offers the intriguing report that Ayatollah Yazdi, a firm supporter of President Ahmadinejad, is resigning from the Secretariat of the Assembly of Experts.Yazdi will retain his membership of the Assembly and his Vice Chair post, but his withdrawal from the Executive diminishes a key challenger to Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Yazdi was absent from the recent Assembly of Experts meeting.

1545 GMT: An Economic Victory for the Republican Guard. An Iranian consortium in which the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps is reputed to be a major actor has bought a 51 percent stake in the State telecommunications firm in the biggest privatisation in Iran's history.

1445 GMT: Another Ministerial Fraud? After the criticism of the Ministers of Interior and Science for dubious doctoral degrees from British universities, now it is the Minister of Transport Hamid Behbahani who faces allegations of false credentials. An article in the French daily newspaper Libération, claims Behbahani plagiarised parts of a work of the Professor Christophe Claramunt, his Chinese colleagues, and the Canadian academic Gerry Forbes for a 2006 publication in a Lithuanian journal.

1440 GMT: Your Latest Proof of the "Velvet Revolution". A Revolutionary Guard offical has said that the television signals of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting were jammed during the election campaign. Brigadier General Gholamreza Jalali claimed that "enemies of the country" had tried to jam the transmission during a Presidential campaign debate.

1200 GMT: Report that student activists Ali Rafai and Mohsen Jafari have been released from detention.

1045 GMT: The New York Times Gets the Story Wrong...Big-Time. EA's Mr Smith picks up on this morning's article by , NewDavid Sanger and William Broad, which opens:

The Obama administration plans to tell Iran this week that it must open a newly revealed nuclear enrichment site to international inspectors “within weeks”, according to senior administration officials. The administration will also tell Tehran that inspectors must have full access to the key personnel who put together the clandestine plant and to the documents surrounding its construction, the officials said Saturday.

The story asserts that, while "Iranian officials have...said the facility near Qom is for peaceful purposes, they have not explained why it was located inside a heavily guarded base of the Revolutionary Guards".

Mr Smith notes:

This is incorrect. In remarks yesterday to Iranian Television, [Iran's top nuclear offcial Ali Akhbar] Salehi said that they felt like they needed to build a plant for uranium enrichment with maximum security to avoid 'stopping the production of enriched uranium for peaceful purposes'. I think everyone agrees that Natanz [Iran's first enrichment plant] isn't that secure, built as it is in open air. Therefore you would have to think that Iran is getting pushed in going underground with its nuclear plants because of the never-ending military threats, mostly from Israel but also, incessantly, from the US.

So I wonder what would have happened if the hawks in Tel Aviv and DC had actually kept quiet rather than waving the military scarecrow all the time.

The US can say whatever it wants, but the heart of the matter is that, unless the IAEA proves that Iran has been feeding uranium into these plants, there is no violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Now, we can discuss ad libitum what the real aims of Iran are, as Sick has valiantly done, but everyone is, so far, putting intentions on trial, rather than actual, hard evidence on violations by Iran. True, Iran has been lying and is not reliable in its disclosures. But does this amount to legal violation? It doesn't appear so...

0835 GMT: This is More Like It. A day after Iran's nuclear negotiator offered Iran's willingness to consider International Atomic Energy Agency access to the second enrichment facility, its ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltaniyeh, puts on a show of defiance: "I categorically reject that there have been any concealment or any deception."

As we predicted, Soltaniyeh rests Iran's legal case on the second plant on the claim that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty did not force revelation of the facility's construction, only its imminent capacity for enrichment: "It is a pity that none of these three leaders have legal advisers to inform them that according to comprehensive safeguards we are only obliged to inform six months before we put nuclear material [into the plant]."

The ambassador adds the flourish that it is Washington, Paris, and London who are the nuclear rule-breakers:

Those three countries in fact have violated for the last 40 years NPT articles. The United Kingdom has [a] secret program of [Trident] nuclear submarines...[costing more than £30 billion.... France is also working on the nuclear weapon programs continuously. Americans are working hard on the nuclear weapon posture review. These are all deceptions and concealment.

0825 GMT: Two new pieces on the Iran nuclear programme. Ali Yenidunya takes a look at Israel's intervention (rhetorical so far) while Gary Sick assesses how the "secret plant" story shapes US strategy and tactics in talks with Tehran.

0655 GMT: Acting Tough. In a move about as surprising as the Pope's endorsement of Catholicism, Iran has announced that it has test-fired two short-range missiles in a missile exercise called "Great Prophet IV". And there will be more launches as the exercise is planned to last several days.

The signal to the "West" --- We Won't Be Pushed Around --- will poke US and UK media into headlines of how this demonstrates Tehran's threat in the context of the furour over the second enrichment plant.

0615 GMT: And a Deal on the International Front? US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton moved quickly to welcome the comment of Iran's lead official on the nuclear programme, Ali Akhbar Salehi, that Iran would permit visits by the International Atomic Energy Agency, under the rules of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to its second enrichment plant (a "defensive facility"). Clinton said:

It is always welcome when Iran makes a decision to comply with the international rules and regulations, and particularly with respect to the IAEA. We are very hopeful that, in preparing for the meeting on October 1, Iran comes and shares with all of us what they are willing to do and give us a timetable on which they are willing to proceed

Hmm.... Salehi's remark appears to have been a holding statement while the Ahmadinejad Government considers its next move, and Clinton's welcome --- unsurprisingly --- fits into a US strategy to back Tehran into a corner of acceptance. The Los Angeles Times reports this morning:

The U.S. and its allies plan to demand that Iran provide "unfettered access" to scientists and information regarding an underground uranium enrichment plant suspected of being part of a secret nuclear weapons program, an Obama administration official said Saturday. A deadline for the access has not yet been determined, but Iran probably would have to comply within weeks.

0600 GMT: Relatively little breaking in Iran this morning, as we look for further signals that there is a compromise plan, led by or involving Hashemi Rafsanjani, making its way through the Iranian system.

What little has come out points more to the continued fencing between opposing camps. Reports are circulating of more official complaints against Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign, while Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Melli party website has published information about the abuse and rape of another detainee.

The most interesting claim is that Sardar Khorshidi, the father of President Ahmadinejad's son-in-law and a decorated commander during the Iran-Iraq War, has said he personally witnessed vote-rigging in the June election. He also points to the fragility of the regime: ""If each protester had a stick on Qods Day, the Army wouldn't have withsood them."

The Latest from Iran (23 September): New York Sideshow, Tehran Main Event

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

1630 GMT: So Twitter Doesn't Matter? The pro-Government newspaper Kayhan is most irritated at a "twitition", promoted via social media, for Mehdi Karroubi to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. This is, apparebtly, the work of agents of the "West" and "Zionists" (and it is in a separate entry on EA).

1500 GMT: Ahmadinejad's away but his Government is still trying to play the enforcer at home. Fereshteh Ghazi reports that Majid Khorami, another member of the reformist Islamic Participation Front and head of Campaign 88 in northern Khorasan province, has been arrested.

1230 GMT: Another example of Red Herring Analysis. Meir Javedanfar is one of the most prominent US-based analysts of Iran, but he also foregoes consideration of the important dynamics inside Iran for the superficial of the President's performance today: "Ahmadinejad's words at the United Nations this week should therefore not be dismissed too quickly. They are a valuable reflection into the thinking of a regime that could soon become a nuclear power. On the contrary, President Ahmadinejad's words should serve as a blueprint for how a nuclear Iran might behave."

1115 GMT: Another Arrest. Confirmation today from various sources that Azar Mansouri, the political deputy to the Secretary General of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, Mohsen Mirdamadi, has been detained. Mirdamadi himself has been under arrest since soon after the 12 June election.

1015 GMT: And here is Ahmadinejad's summary, from the AP interview, of who is to blame for the post-election conflict:

"These were our citizens who were killed, and they were not at fault. Those who were at fault were a group of politicians who basically instigated the events that transpired. I've asked the judicial system ... to find out who the perpetrators of those acts were.

"The government has no role in these events ... Undoubtedly, some foreign governments had a role to play in it ... It is all very regrettable ... Some European and American politicians took a wrong position and basically helped that happen."

1000 GMT: Associated Press has published extracts from their interview with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Its main significance is to bear out what we projected this morning about the media coverage of the President's forthcoming speech. Attention is paid to the Holocaust, Iran's nuclear programme, and the three detained US "hitchhikers". There is only one brief reference to Iran's internal situation.

0600 GMT: At 5 p.m. New York time (2100 GMT) Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will address the United Nations General Assembly.

And to be honest, both for personal interest and for analysis, I really don't care. I can guess most of Ahmadinejad's script, and the way he'll deliver it, and how it will be treated. The one proviso is that, if there are large demonstrations --- involving not pro-Israeli groups but those protesting the internal situation in Iran --- it could dent Ahmadinejad's self-portrayal to his folks back home as confdient and secure leader.

The main action is in Tehran. We've got a separate analysis of Hashemi Rafsanjani's speech yesterday, and we're watching for reactions and manoeuvres.

Meanwhile, Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has linked up publicly with Mir Hossein Mousavi in a new challenge to the Government. A Mousavi statement has been followed by a Montazeri letter denouncing the false confessions of show trials.

One of the detention cases has been highlighted by the blogger Fereshteh Ghazi (iranbaan on Twitter). She notes that fellow journalist Ahmad Zeidabadi is under heavy pressure in Evin Prison to confess. The interrogator has told him: "We have orders to crush you. If you don't work with us we'll do anything we want to you, and if you don't sign the confession papers we'll make you eat them." Zeidabadi's wife said that the interrogator has severely beaten her husband.

One of Zeidabadi's charges is that in an open letter to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he called him the "Leader" and not "Supreme" Leader. The interrogators have told Zeidabadi to apologise to Khamenei.

The Latest from Iran (22 September): A Trip to New York

Iran: More on Rafsanjani and Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech
The Latest from Iran (21 September): Distractions

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

1520 GMT: EA's Mr Johnson goes over the Rafsanjani speech, adding to and correcting our earlier analysis.

While there is no open challenge to the Government, Rafsanjani's call for unity includes recognition and inclusion of those senior clerics who have offered criticisms: "A measured thoughtful approach can lead to an optimal solution for the problems....The help and support of the Marjas (Grand Ayatollahs ) for the Establishment is absolutely necessary. In the last 30 years we have never had a problem in this regard and hopefully in the future this will not happen again. Threats must stop and small problems that must not be allowed to cause rifts [between the establishment and Marjas]."

Then Rafsanjani manoeuvred behind the general chiding of Ayatollah Khamenei of conflict:  "The Supreme Leader has condemned the atmosphere of defamation and confrontation that currently exists....All of us officials must pay attention to these issues so that this atmosphere does not get worse."

This led to the key passage of Rafsanjani's strategy of resolution which EA noted earlier: "Currently experienced and concerned individuals of the establishment are in the process of designing a blueprint providing a solution for the current situation....Considering that the University academic year will start soon, these efforts can be very useful, and we must reduce opaqueness from the atomosphere of society and refrain from opaque acts...so that an atmosphere for constructive criticism of society can be created....The supreme leader has emphasized the importance of the law, therefore both officials [a.k.a the Goverment and the Revolutionary Guards] and the protesters must act according to law."

And so Rafsanjani's manouevre without direct reference to the issues of detentions and abuses: "Both the officials and the protesters must not expect indifference if they break the law, since lawlessness breeds chaos in society...The supreme leader has also emphasized that the right of people to defend themselves [from accusations] must be observed [and] has prohibited broadcasting the confessions of accused individuals....If any member of the media broadcasts a confession accusing others [that broadcast] is against the law  and must be prosecuted. The fact that certain members of the media [irresponsibly] publish whatever they choose is against the law and should be dealt with."

Mr Johnson also clarifies and corrects our earlier report --- it was Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi (not  Mesbah Yazdi) who was absent a very well-attended session.

1105 GMT: Speculation of Day. According to witness accounts, members' turnout at the Assembly of Experts meeting was the highest ever, but the Vice Chairman, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a fervent supporter of President Ahmadinejad, was absent.

1045 GMT: 1030 GMT: More on the Rafsanjani statement, as presented by ILNA:

As expected, it is very clever and very cautious, with interpretation left to the beholder. Rafsanjani upheld the greatness of the Iranian nation on Qods Day, as the "holy and glorious presence" of marchers make clear that the defense of rights would never be forgotten. Iranians were ever-ready to stand up to "imperialists" and their "psychological warfare" trying to reduce Iran to "passivity" ahead of negotiations. The priority for Iranians was the "unity of our country".

Nothing there to separate Rafsanjani from the Government, especially as the call could be read as defiance of the "West" in talks on Iran's nuclear question. And the former President's reference to the recent assassination of the Kurdestan member of the Assembly was a call to support the security forces and judiciary as they investigated and prosecuted such crimes.

But what of the security forces, and the Government behind them, in the post-election conflict? Ahh, there's the rub: there's no obvious reference by Rafsanjani on that key matter, leaving his audience --- whatever their position on and in the issue --- in suspense.

1030 GMT: Gary Sick offers an excellent analysis of a recent poll of Iranians regarding the election and its aftermath. EA's Chris Emery adds his own take:

I think there are some statistical anomalies with the poll and major methodological problems- there is a perception that the government routinely tap phones and this will affect people's responses to some degree. There was also a very high refusal rate amongst those called (52%).

In many ways its greatest signficance lies in how it has been read. Those, especially in the West, who cry foul on the methodology will be to some degree influenced by their refusal to accept the unpalatable truth that Ahmadinejad is undoubtedly popular amongst millions of Iranians. On the other hand, I would never use this poll as a litmus test for support within either camp. The situation is simply far more complicated and the dynamics of the current power struggles cannot be accurately drawn out from this poll.

In sum, it is more interesting to watch how it is kicked around as a political football than as a genuine indicator of the relative strength of either Ahmadinejad or the Green's position.

0945 GMT: The spin is coming in on Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement at the Assembly of Experts meeting. The Iranian Labor News Agency links a call for unity with a declaration that resolution is imminent: "Those who care about the Regime have devised a plan to get out of current situation."

0915 GMT: The "Western" media are running with "news" that President Ahmadinejad has claimed that "his country is now stronger than ever and warned that Iranian military will retaliate with full might against anyone who dares attack it".

This is not news. If Ahmadinejad had told those assembled for the military parade commemorating the 1980-1988 Iraq War that Iran was really weak and its military hopeless, that would be news. The story, however, will set up tomorrow's coverage of the UN speech: Big, Bad Ahmadinejad and the World That Must Confront Him.

Of course, it's not like Mahmoud isn't helping the portrayal: “Our armed forces will cut the hand of anyone in the world before it pulls the trigger against the Iranian nation,” Ahmadinejad said during a military parade marking the anniversary of the start of the 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran war.



0415 GMT: All very quiet in Iran in the last 24 hours, apart from some rumblings over the position of Imam Khomenei's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomenei (see yesterday's updates). The regime will roll out a two-day setpiece ,with the presentation of detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati in a televised "roundtable" to discuss how the velvet revolution has been pursued against Iran. And Press TV has an intriguing story, given President Ahmadinejad's attempts to ensure a "proper" bureaucracy responding to his wishes, of "the first of the post-presidential-election diplomatic appointments of the Ahmadinejad government...being implemented with new ambassadors lined up for European countries".

But it appears that we are in the midst of a 72-hour diversion with President Ahmadinejad presenting himself as undisputed leader in front of the United Nations General Assembly. He will speak at about 5 p.m. New York time (2100 GMT) on Wednesday. This will get sneers and denunciations from most of the "Western" media, but mainly over his references to Israel and possibly Iran's nuclear programme. Iranian state media will hail the pride of the nation in their President on the world stage.

Opposition activists are pinning hopes on a show of protest, with Mir Hossein Mousavi's Facebook page laying out a schedule of events. At the risk of being a jaded cynic, I'm not sure there is enough attention to the Iran issue in the US now to generate a high-profile demonstration, at least on the Iranian internal issue. (There will undoubtedly be protests from pro-Israel groups, but I'm not sure how this will intersect with the Green wave.)

All this said, there is one prominent wild card in the deck. Iran's Assembly of Experts, chaired by Hashemi Rafsanjani, holds its regular (but delayed) meeting today. Will the former President use the occasion to make his challenge, supported by other members, to the current regime? Or will he maintain his cautious line of vocal support for the Supreme Leader but no direct attention to the Ahmadinejad Government? And what will be the dynamic beyond Rafsanjani?