Iran's Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces for Friday

The Latest from Iran (16 September): Smoke Before Battle
Iran: The Supreme Leader and the Larijani-Karroubi Meeting
Iran Analysis: Checking the Scorecard of Opposition
The Latest from Iran (15 September): Momentum Builds

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It was a quieter day on Tuesday, but make no mistake, there were some significant moves. And in those moves were the indications of both possibilities and problems for the opposition and for the Government.

For the Green movement, yesterday brought alignment of the pieces. Mehdi Karroubi, to say the least, is already in play; the question now, after all the Government threats against him, is how high a profile he takes on Friday. Tuesday morning brought the entry of Mir Hossein Mousavi with the announcement that he would participate in the Qods Day demonstration and encourage followers to do so; Mohammad Khatami repeated the process in the afternoon.

Expect the "followers" today to make their declarations, with political activists and possibly some clerical groups issuing statements that Qods Day will be their day. The obvious challenge is to turn declaration into mass practice. Communications within Iran are still difficult, and the threat of arrests and violence is strong. How many turn out on the street in the next 48 hours?

The most striking story on Tuesday, however, came on the Government side. The regime was preparing to shut out Hashemi Rafsanjani from Qods Day prayers so President Ahmadinejad could introduce his hard-line supporter, Ahmad Khatami, and signal that Enough is Enough and This Game is Over; however, its powerful move turned into farce. Pro-Government outlets such as Fars News, seeking a dramatic proclamation, leaked the news, and the regime spent the rest of the day issuing denials, clarifications, and wait-and-sees amidst the confusion.

This morning we still don't know who will take the podium on Wednesday. Fars now makes no reference to Friday prayers, and the Islamic Republic News Agency prefers "Green Wave disturbance in the scramble for Qods rallies". I still think Ahmadinejad-Khatami is the plan for Friday, but the Government has converted an opportunity into a fumble and stumble.

This is not an indication that the the President is trouble. Paradoxically, the bungling comes from a position of power. Ahmadinejad and his allies can issue declarations, send out security forces for raids and arrests, and count on almost all of the state media to put out supporting "news".

At the same time, this is a large bureaucracy, so signs of clever co-ordination may actually be officials working off different scripts. For example, is the near-simultaneous release of some high-ranking opposition activists (for example, Mousavi campaign manager Javad Emam yesterday) and the arrest of others (Karroubi advisor Fayez Ahzad) the ultimate in carrot-and-stick or is it a confusion over whether to offer limited concession or bring down the fist?

This is a bureaucracy which is supposed to be governing --- running an economy, providing services, pursuing a foreign policy. For all the headlines that the third task is being pursued, with the dance around talks with Western powers and Ahmadinejad's forthcoming appearance at the UN, the other two areas aren't exactly inspiring confidence.

This is a bureaucracy which is not yet secure "within". After the apparent victory quelling conservative and principlist concerns, symbolised by the approval of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet, the last 48 hours have brought the first signs that leading MPs may be ready to poke the President in the eye once again. The symbolic issue is currently the nomination of the First Vice President, Mohammad Reza Rahimi: how much of a groundswell against him is signalled by the accusations of high-profile conservatives like Morteza Motahhari and Ahmad Tavakoli (who is close to the Larijanis)?

I'm not even sure this is a bureaucracy which has a comfortable alignment of power between the Supreme Leader and the President. Weeks of shifting relations between the two were supposed to culminate in last Friday's prayers, where Ayatollah Khamenei would put to rest the notion that the opposition could prevail against his Government. Instead, the "other" moves of the week --- the raids and arrests, the threats against opposition leaders --- brought the question: is the Supreme Leader now a follower of Ahmadinejad and the Revolutionary Guard? And yesterday just adds a punctuation mark. Who exactly is deciding what takes place on Friday?

And oh, yes, one other question as the timer for this chess match is started. While the opposition tries to line up for Friday and the Government looks to convert its immediate advantages of more powerful forces into checkmate, what happens to the piece that was supposed to be taken off the board on Tuesday?

Enduring America readers have shrewdly recognised and alerted others that Hashemi Rafsanjani is not the opposition movement. At the same time, he has been a catalyst --- symbolic and political --- for those trying to put pressure on the regime.

Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami, thousands (how many thousands?) are ready to make moves on Friday. But does the former President suddenly jump onto the board --- and if so, are his own moves coordinated with those of the other pieces? --- or does he stand aside, possibly waiting for the Assembly of Experts meeting next Tuesday?

Qods Day is two days away.

The Latest from Iran (15 September): Momentum Builds

NEW Iran Analysis: Checking the Scorecard of Opposition
UPDATED Iran: Complete Text of Karroubi Letter to The Iranian People (14 September)
Iran: The Rafsanjani Statement on Qods Day
Iran: The Protest Goes On
The Latest from Iran (14 September): Countdown to Friday

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2100 GMT: This summer's proposed privatisation of Iran Telecom has had everything from Russian involvement to Revolutionary Guard manoeuvring, so make what you will of this story from Press TV: "Iran has postponed the planned flotation of the country's Telecommunications Company, originally scheduled for Wednesday, in the Tehran Stock Exchange."

1730 GMT: Battle Renewed? From this morning's analysis: "One of [the challengers], conservative and principlist critics of the Government, has remained silent."

Well, we need to make a minor amendment. Sniping has resumed over President Ahmadinejad's choice of First Vice President, Mohammad Reza Rahimi. Yesterday prominent conservative MP Ali Motahhari said the appointment of Rahimi signalled "bad taste" and "a tendency to quarrel" by Ahmadinejad. Rahimi's academic credentials presented "the same problems" as the ones possessed by former Minister of the Interior, Ali Kordan, who was forced to resign for falsely claiming a doctorate from Oxford University.

Today MP Ahmad Tavakoli echoed, "Rahimi’s degree is fake and similar to Kordan’s.” He added, “Appointing someone who has a record of lying and abusing power who can potentially substitute for the president is regrettable.”

So it is this a re-run of Ahmadinejad's failed effort in July to appoint Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as First Vice President, an affair which damaged the President for a few weeks until he was able to push through his Cabinet choices?

1700 GMT: Khatami's In. An official from Mohammad Khatami's office says that the former President invites all Iranians to participate in Qods Day ceremonies "to protest the occupation of Palestine and the oppression of Palestinians".

1440 GMT: Meanwhile, HomyLafayette's blog has a useful summary of the still-uncertain situation regarding Hashemi Rafsanjani's leadership/non-leadership of Qods Day Friday prayers. in contrast to our own reading that the regime has now blocked the former President's appearance, the blog still says, "Will he or won't he?", before concluding, "For the protesters who aim to demonstrate in huge numbers on Friday, the answer may well turn out to be irrelevant."

1430 GMT: Qods Day Latest. The story of Mir Hossein Mousavi's participation (1120 GMT) is firming up. Mousavi's website Kaleme, supported by Zahra Rahnavard's Facebook page, announces, "Following many questions regarding the Qods Day rally, the office of Mir Hossein Mousavi has announced that Mousavi will attend the rally side-by-side with the people of Iran, as this is the day to support the innocent and oppressed."

The Internet is buzzing with the story that Mehdi Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami will also be present at the gathering. No sign yet, however, of a joint statement amongst the three leaders.

1320 GMT: No Carrot, Just Stick. Ten minutes after reporting the release of Mousavi campaign manager Javad Emam, we get news that Karroubi advisor Fayez Zahad has been arrested.

1315 GMT: Those Pesky Clerics. The Iranian Labour News Agency reports that Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani has had a "dialogue" with Grand Ayatollah Mousavi Ardebili on on the "issues and current events in the country".

It's this cute phrase, however, that highlights the significance of the discussion: "It must be pointed out during a similar meeting last week between several senior clerics was held." That "similar meeting" led to a letter to the Supreme Leader criticising the legitimacy of the Ahmadinejad Government.

1310 GMT: Stick. Carrot. Report that Javad Imam, Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign manager, has been released on bail after three months in detention.

1305 GMT: The Regime Blocks Rafsanjani. The urgent announcement on the Islamic Republic News Agency says, from "an informed source", that Hashemi Rafsanjani's appearance at Qods Day Friday prayers has been "cancelled".  A replacement will be named tomorrow.

Note "cancelled". Rafsanjani did not withdraw; the regime has decided that he will not be leading because, according to the informed source, his presence might bring unwanted political activity.

This explains the confusion this morning. The Government was obviously making its replacement plan, with Ahmad Khatami leading on Friday, but was not ready to make its move when Press TV/Fars leaked the news.

1300 GMT: Drawing the Line. Grand Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib has warned that the arrests of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, would be “an unrecoverable mistake”. Dastgheib said the opposition "do not want to and cannot threaten” and “we neither have military nor ability to deal with trained officers, tear gas and guns”; however, people have the right to express their anger and arresting the reformist leaders “will have unfortunate consequences for everyone”.

1120 GMT: Mousavi's In. The Green movement's website Mowj-e-Sabz has announced that Mir Hossein Mousavi will attend the demonstrations on Friday for Qods Day. Mousavi will also be issuing a statements urging his followers to join.

1100 GMT: After the rush of news and rumour this morning, a quiet phase. Fars has not updated its claim that Ahmad Khatami will lead this Friday's prayers.

Press TV, meanwhile, wins the award for today's ambiguous article, "Rafsanjani Urges Epic Turnout for Qods Day", avoiding any reference to internal matters for the motive "to foil world powers' plot to sow discord among Muslims".

0830 GMT: Or Maybe Not. Tabnak claims that the head of the Friday Prayers Committee has denied that Ahmad Khatami has been selected as the speaker on Qods Day.

Personally, I think this is just embarrassment that the news has leaked. Expect Khatami to be confirmed in a few hours.

0820 GMT: Your Qods Day Friday Prayer Leader is.... Ahmad Khatami. Press TV has just reported this news, which is reprinted by Fars.

0815 GMT: It is No Longer Quiet. Fasten your seatbelts, folks, because this ride just got faster. Fars News reports that President Ahmadinejad will introduce the Friday Prayers speaker on Qods Day.

0755 GMT: Confession --- this is a "holding" entry, as very little has emerged this morning after yesterday's rush of developments. We've tried to bring everything together in a new analysis, "Checking the Scorecard of Opposition".

We also have an updated, complete translation of Mehdi Karroubi's letter to the Iranian people (thanks to Evan Siegel) and last night's statement by Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Iran: Montazeri Letter to Islamic Clerics (14 September)

The Latest from Iran (15 September): Momentum Builds
Iran Analysis: Checking the Scorecard of Opposition

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Yesterday Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, the one-time successor to Ayatollah Khomeini, wrote marjas (senior Shia clerics), Islamic scholars, and seminaries about the deviation from Islam of the recent behavior of the Iranian authorities. Hours later the regime arrested his three grandsons.

Translation and notes by Khordaad 88:

In the Name of Allah, the Compassionate, and the Merciful,
‏
According to the Prophet of God: “When a Bid’ah [1]occurs in my Ummah, the scholars’ knowledge will be known” (Al-Kaffi, Volume 1, Page 54).

Honorable Marjas and scholars of Qom, Najaf, Holy Mashad, Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, Shiraz and all other corners of the Islamic world:
‏
With regards,

Concerning the abuses that we are witnessing every day and the illicit behavior that has been justified in the name of religion and Islamic jurisprudence: I herby find myself religiously responsible to solemnly remind you of the following, based on the danger that I feel and the gravity of [the verse] “remind them, [because] reminders will benefit the Faithful”.

1- We all know that our Revolution was one based on religious and moral values. Our goal in bearing the hardship of all those tragedies, struggles, exiles, imprisonments and tortures, was not to change the people in power and the formalities in some specific areas. Rather, the goal was to [establish] a government that was faithful to ethical beliefs and to clear, religious edicts on all levels.

On the basis of that authority, faith, noble acts, justice and freedom from dictatorship and oppression were to turn into realities. In addition, the rights of different groups of people were supposed to be protected and abuse and oppression likewise eradicated. Consequently, our people were to feel comfortable, safe and proud in the eyes of other nations, like a true model of justice, dignity, decency and human values. The goal was not to simply change names and slogans while the same oppressions, deviations and abuses practiced by the previous regime continued in another form, under the labels of theocratic government and the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurists [2].

Everyone knows that I am a defender of theocratic government and one of the founding fathers of the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurists, although not in its current form. Rather, the difference lies in the fact that people choose the jurist and supervise his work. I have made a great deal of effort to ensure the realization of this facet both scholarly and in practice. However, I now feel ashamed before the attentive people of Iran because of the tyranny conducted under this very same banner. I find myself responsible before God and subject to His reproach for the spilled blood of our dear martyrs, for the abuses carried out on innocent people. Many individuals with prominent roles in the revolution have asked me via letter, e-mail, or in person: Is this the theocratic government that you were promising the people and, as its executive, is this the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurists? The same one that we observe today? Because what we see now is the government of a military guardianship, not the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurists.

2- The honorable Marjas and learned scholars know well that in the course of history, they themselves sheltered and protected people from abusive and oppressive governments. They were honored to stand against oppression and to defend the religious and civil rights of their people. On this path they tolerated great injury and deprivation. May God grant them the best of Islam.

Regretfully, after the victory of the Revolution, this bright past came under serious scrutiny because of the government’s deceitfulness. Although the clergy may not have had a role in this, their negligence in “Forbidding Evil”[3] aligned them with that dangerous shift as well. The threat became more serious as the concept of morality changed and the theory that the “end justifies the means”became fortified. Ultimately, the Revolution deviated from its path and its initial goals. I must regretfully assert that the spiritual and popular base of the clergy, the Marjas and, consequently, Islam and Sharia (traditionally promoted by and associated with the clergy), has been so severely damaged that it is unclear when and how it can be repaired.

The association of religion with scholars and religious experts – which is logical and accepted by Muslims – signifies that any damage to the clergy will inevitably impact Islam as a whole.

Under these circumstances, the honorable Marjas and the Shi’ite clerics will have greater responsibilities. Besides partaking in their usual duties, which include availability and expertise, they must see to the added task of defending the dignity of the religion and cleansing from it the illicit acts performed by the government in its name. Because these religiously illegitimate acts that have been done under the banner of religion and Sharia’ and are also against the ideals of the Revolution, are a clear example of “Bid’ah”. Bid’ah does not strictly refer to the legitimization and introduction of irreligious laws. It may also point to any illegitimate act executed in the name of religion and Sharia.

In verses 9 -71 of the Quran, we read the following: “Believers, whether men or women, must [act as] friends to one another; they should command decency and forbid wickedness.”[4]
Based on the local plural of the mired “alef and lam” in the “Al-Mo’menoon and Al-Mo’menat” [5], all male and female believers have a responsibility [6] toward each other in the scope of “commanding decency and forbidding wickedness.” Thus, religious scholars have even greater responsibility and should not be silent. We see in the will of our master, the Commander of the Faithful [7]: “Abandoning the command to decency and allowing wickedness will definitely result in the rule of evil men; then you will pray but your prayers will not be answered”[8] (Nahj-Al-Balaghah, letter number 47).

3- Considering what I have said so far, let me remind you [of the following]:
Those incidents and atrocities that occurred after the presidential election, seen and heeded by the honourable Marjas and respectable scholars, should sound the alarm for them and for the clergy. Here, actions such as the violation of human rights, oppression, and so on – all illegalities in the name of religion were committed with the confirmation of a small group of subservient clerics in favour of the government. What followed was a peaceful objection to the government involving numerous classes of people who were critical of recent events. They acted within their legal and religious rights, based on the 27th article of the constitution. Instead of wisely and positively acknowledging the voice of a people seeking justice and the restoration of their violated rights, the authorities labeled the multi-million strong masses as insurgents, anarchists, and foreign agents. They then proceeded with a clampdown of the utmost violence, beating defenseless men and women, detaining many, and creating some martyrs on the streets and others in their horrifying prisons.

Relying on their military and security forces, and by drawing firearms on defenseless people the government have martyred and imprisoned them. It is very ironic that at the end of the day, the government labeled the people as [armed] combatants. It is the government that created this crisis in the first place and put the establishment in danger but then it labels people as insurgents and those who established the system as anti-establishment.

While proceeding with the clampdown on people, the government detained some of the politicians, political activists and gifted individuals of the country each of whom had years of invaluable service in the Islamic Republic. Based on pre-determined plans, and against rule of religion and law, [the ruling authorities in the government] started plotting against these individuals by forcing false confessions and displaying them on theatrical, unlawful, and religiously illegitimate trials. As a result, the entire world ridiculed the legal system of Islam. Instead of severely punishing those who caused all those atrocities, they [the authorities] only talk about their punishments; just like they did with those in charge of serial murders [of elites and politicians outside the country] They detain other ex-public servants and pressure the two respectable presidential candidates, Mr. Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Hojatoleslam Karoubi. They close down their headquarters and newspapers, and detained their colleagues and respectable coworkers[9]. They make false accusations to some of the honest and hardworking people in government dependent media. They even use the holy medium of Friday Prayers to spread lies. The ultimate consequence of such trends is an even greater destruction of the nation’s belief in its clerics, in the Shi’ite faith and in our dear Islam.

it is in this situation that our Muslims nation has certain expectations from the honorable Marjas and respectable scholars and this humble person. With the duty that holy guidelines of Islam put on the shoulders of religious scholars, and in light of historical and traditional responsibilities of clergies and Marjas, people are justified in their expectations. People are asking: if these oppressions, violations of rights and Bid’ah is against Islam, why aren’t the respectable Marjas and Scholars of religion who are guardians of religion and Islam and its guidelines voice their concerns against all the alternations[3] in Islam? Why don’t they who are protectors of people’s rights, and rules of Islam including the rule “command decency and forbid wickedness”, declare their abrupt disapproval against all the Bid’ah to religion? Are all of these oppressions, violations to rights, and atrocities less than ‘Moavie’s soldiers’ taking anklets from the feet of the Jewish woman? A move about which Imam Ali (may peace be upon him) announced: “if a Muslim male dies from the pain, he’s died a justified death”. Certainly, the honorable Marjas and respectable scholars are sad and worried in their hearts in regards to all the sins committed in the name of religion, and some of them have acted upon it too, but Is that enough considering the articles in the respectful hadith[10] necessitating declaration of disapproval?

4- The honorable and respected Marjas understand the power and influence of their words; they are well aware that the government needs their approval. This is why the authorities – at least for now – recognize and promote them, though very ostensibly so. The Marjas are also aware that the government takes advantage of their silence to its own benefit. So, is it advantageous to preserve silence on all the important issues such as dignity and respect for religion, concern for the rights of enormous classes of people, and the survival of religious beliefs among our youth? Is it worth upholding the silence when people could interpret, God forbid, the fact that the Marjas approve of and encourage all the aforementioned foulness?

To conclude, let me remind you that I have not yet lost the hope of reform. It seems to me that the great Marjas can implement a solution. A solution to help the Islamic Republic escape this crisis of legitimacy can be devised with their help and guidance, with the consultation of two respected presidential candidates as well as thoughtful, centrist, expert, candid and religious representatives from the establishment. Finally, let me also remind those in power to permanently – not temporarily – put aside their policies of exaggeration and false promise; to stop calling some friends and others enemies. They must not merely value people with hollow words; they must recognize them as the main owners of government.They must respect people’s votes and have their policies espouse this opinion. They must put Islam and the republic alongside true justice. It is not a disgrace to admit one’s mistakes; but to defy justice certainly is.

23 of Ramadhan-Al-Mobarak of 1430
1388/6/22
September/13/2009

Hossein Ali Montazeri-Holy Qom

[1] Deviation of the Islamic laws, or Bid’ah (بدعت): “An innovation in the religion, in imitation of the Sharia (prescribed Law), by which nearness to God is sought, [but] not […] supported by any authentic proof – neither in its foundations, nor in the manner in which it is performed.” [see (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bid‘ah#cite_note-3)

[2] ولايت فقي

[3] نهی عن المنکر : “Forbidding Evil” is an Islamic principle that orders followers to prohibit evil, usually by reminding others of what is reprehensible.

[4] والمومنون والمومنات بعضهم‏ ‏اولياء بعض ، يأمرون بالمعروف و ينهون عن المنكر : Translation of the Holy Quran, Surah 9- verse 71, by T.B.Irving

[5] alef and lam are the first two letters in the Arabic words المومنونand المومنات. They function as “the” in English.

[6] ولايت

[7] Ali ibn Abi-Talib, the first Imam of the Shi’ites and fourth Caliph

[8] “لا تتركوا الامر بالمعروف‏ ‏والنهى عن المنكر فيولى عليكم شراركم ثم تدعون فلا‏ ‏يستجاب لكم ” Nahj-Al-Balaghah, letter number 47

[9] Reference to the recent detainment of Morteza Alviri, Alireza Beheshti and others.

[10] Hadith (الحديث al-ḥadīth, pl. aḥadīth; lit. “Narrative”) are oral traditions relating to the words and deeds of the Islamic prophet Muhammad.

Iran Analysis: Checking the Scorecard of Opposition

Iran: Complete Text of Karroubi Letter to The Iranian People (14 September)
Iran: The Rafsanjani Statement on Qods Day
Iran: The Protest Goes On
The Latest from Iran (14 September): Countdown to Friday

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On Monday we listed five challengers to the authority and legitimacy of the regime. One of these, conservative and principlist critics of the Government, remained silent, but the other four kept us very busy. Let's have a look, shall we?

1) THE GREEN LEADERSHIP: Mehdi Karroubi just won't go away, will he? On Monday he issued a lengthy letter to the Iranian people, re-stating his case on the abuse of detainees and thereby taking apart the Iranian judiciary's dismissal of his evidence. He agreed to a meeting with Speaker of the President Ali Larijani, where the discussion went something like this:

LARIJANI: Karroubi, you should be silent from now until well past Qods Day.
KARROUBI: No.


Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, while arguably now in supporting roles, kept up a steady stream of information and exhortation through their Facebook pages. Only former President Khatami has retreated into silence in recent days.

2) SENIOR CLERICS: No fresh statements yesterday; however, Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's Sunday message condemning the transformation of the Islamic Republic into a "military state" spread rapidly. And the family of Imam Khomenei made their position clear, from greetings of freed detainees to the filing of charges against the pro-Government newspaper Kayhan.

A very observant Iranian friend offers this important sentiment, "The ulama [Islamic scholars] are now uniting against this Government."

3) HASHEMI RAFSANJANI: The position of "The Shark", read through last night's statement on Qods (Jerusalem) Day, is in the eye of the beholder. Are the former President's words to be read as a straightforward invocation for Iranians to support the Palestinian people? Or is the message, with its reference to "an absolutely illegitimate, fraudulent, and usurping Government", to be applied closer to home?

My reaction is that Rafsanjani has cleverly put out the possibility of an endorsement of opposition while being able to respond, if pressed, "No, I didn't say that." The important dimension, however, is not my reaction but that of the millions who learn of this statement. If they interpret it as support for the cause, then the challenge to the regime will have been bolstered.

4) THE IRANIAN PEOPLE: So how many Iranians are behind the Green movement and/or its allies? How many are not "for" it but happy to stand by, despite Government injunctions to stand firm against a "velvet coup"? I'm a fool but not foolish enough to venture an answer.

Two well-informed Iranian friends discussed this with me yesterday and offered this: the number of Iranians seeking meaningful change has not diminished since 12 June. Some of those who had no defined opinion three months ago have moved behind the President; others have either been convinced by the opposition or alienated from the Government. But I think they, like me, are holding their breath for Friday.

Still I think it's safe to reaffirm, as we put forth yesterday, "The Protest Goes On". The signs were strong enough to kick what was supposed to be Monday's showcase event --- the 5th Tehran trial --- to kick the sidelines. Despite the prosecution's strident repetition of foreign-led/cyber-driven counter-revolution, complete with another "confession" --- this one from Abdollah Momeni --- the general reaction seemed to be a giant yawn.

Indeed, if the Government was sending out signals, they were of worry rather than confidence. Consider the specific references in the trial to the power of "Facebook" to corrupt the Iranian public and the attention to Mir Hossein Mousavi's IT staff. That is an indication that the regime is considered not only about Karroubi's high-profile Web outlets but about the alternative channels, including the Facebook sites (which the Government tried to hack earlier in this crisis but which now appear to be safe from demolition), set up by the Mousavi campaign.

And then there was last night's final act. Far from being secure in its position after the criticism of the day, the Government lashed out and arrested the three grandsons of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. While this is a display of power, it is a power which is not assured but spiteful. It shows not deliberation --- as in last week's attempt to break the Mousavi and Karroubi campaigns --- but a hot-headed anger and concern.

Long-term developments, short-term challenge. I'll stand by yesterday's conclusion.

Qods Day is three days away.

The Latest from Iran (14 September): Countdown to Friday

NEW Iran: The Rafsanjani Statement on Qods Day
Latest Iran Video: The Allegations of Detainee Abuse
Iran: The Protest Goes On
Iran: English Translation of Judiciary Report on Karroubi Allegations
Iran: The Soroush Letter to the Supreme Leader
The Latest from Iran (13 September): Lull — Storm?

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2110 GMT: On the day after Grand Ayatollah Montazeri denounced Iran's "military state", his three grandsons --- Mohammad Mehdi, Mohammad Ali Montazeri, and Mohammad Sadegh --- have been arrested.

2045 GMT: Over to You. What do you think Hashemi Rafsanjani is intending for Qods Day? We've posted a translation of his statement today, including his reference to "an absolutely illegitimate, fraudulent, and usurping Government".

1910 GMT: Got It in One. Our prediction at 1450 GMT: "the Speaker of the Parliament asked Karroubi to please refrain from taking to the streets this Friday on Qods Day, promising in return a genuine Parliamentary review of the claims of detainee abuse."

From Rouydad News: "Larijani asked Karoubi to keep quiet for a while. Karoubi said I will die but I won't keep quiet."

1830 GMT: Did Rafsanjani Just Bless the (Green) Cause? Our sharp readers will have noted our caution in the previous entry. While Hashemi Rafsanjani had asked Iranians to march on Friday, he had referred to the cause of Palestine.

The Internet is buzzing, however, with the reading that the former President has now signalled that he is with the opposition. The key sentence? The Iranian version of "It is always darkest just before dawn".

1738 GMT: The website of the Supreme Leader has denied the claim that Hashemi Rafsanjani, in a talk with Ayatollah Khamenei, threatened to resign all his positions if Mehdi Karroubi was arrested.

1735 GMT: Report that Majid Nayeri of the Mojahedin-Enghelab party was released Sunday night after 89 days in prison.

1730 GMT: Hashemi Rafsanjani has issued a statement calling on people to march on Qods Day, ostensibly for the "Palestinian cause".

1450 GMT: More on the Ali Larijani-Karroubi meeting (1100 GMT). Reports indicate the discussion lasted two hours and both sides agreed not to reveal details.

For what it's worth, I'm speculating that the Speaker of the Parliament asked Karroubi to please refrain from taking to the streets this Friday on Qods Day, promising in return a genuine Parliamentary review of the claims of detainee abuse.

1410 GMT: Mehdi, Mir Hossein, Hashemi, We'll Take All of You On. Fars News is featuring three articles on today's Tehran trials. Two are the detailed recitations of Karroubi and Mousavi computer-whizzes trying to take out the system with a "velvet coup". The other, however, deserves a moment's attention: Hashemi Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi, is the accused culprit trying to ensure a Mousavi "victory".

1345 GMT: Khomeini --- He Once Led the System, Right? Because his family sure are giving the regime a rough time. There's the lawsuit against Kayhan newspaper (1305 GMT), yesterday's warm reception for the freed Alireza Behesti, and now the pictures are out of an equally effusive greeting for the released activist Mohammad Reza Jalaeipour.

1335 GMT: The Clerical Challenge. From this morning's analysis: "If Karroubi remains a presence and if senior clerics continue their challenge to the legitimacy of the Presidency, then the wave [of resistance] will come ashore again and again."

We've featured Karroubi already (1315 GMT). Now for the senior clerics via a letter from Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, claiming that the Islamic Republic is no longer a system led by religious tenets but a "military state".

1325 GMT: Parleman News reports that General Mohammad Moghaddam, head of the Veterans’ Section of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s election campaign, was released on Friday night. Moghaddam had been arrested on Tuesday as part of the crackdown on Mousavi and Karroubi staff investigating charges of detainee abuse.

1315 GMT: Karroubi's "Bring It On". More news to add to our morning analysis "The Protest Goes On". Mehdi Karroubi has offered a pointed response to the three-member judiciary panel that has rejected his evidence on abuse of detainees and the threat to arrest him. He has written to the Iranian people, describing the post-election events that led him to protest through his letter, initially sent to Hashemi Rafsanjani. An Iranian activist has a running summary in English on Twitter.

1305 GMT: Back after a break to an avalanche of news. The Financial Times of London reports that the Imam Khomeini Institute, run by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan, has filed a complaint against Kayhan newspaper over an editorial that alleged that the Khomeini household was infiltrated by “riotous agents”.

1110 GMT: Meanwhile, the Engagement is On; the Nuke Deadline is Off. The European Union's Javier Solana and Saeed Jalili, the Secretary of Iran's National Security Council, have decided after a morning phone call, to meet on 1 October, well after President Ahmadinejad's forthcoming in NewYork City.

An EA correspondent: "The venue of the Solana-Jalili meeting is not clear, but it appears that United Nations General Assembly meeting, as well as Obama's informal September deadline, can now be classified as irrelevant in the nuclear battle between Iran and the West."

1100 GMT: What is Ali Larijani Saying to Mehdi Karroubi? The Speaker of the Parliament is meeting this afternoon with Karroubi at the Parliament building; Qodratollah Alikhani, the secretary-general of Karroubi's Etemade Melli party, is also in attendance.

The meeting was requested by Larijani. So a question, from an EA correspondent, "Has he been ordered by the Supreme Leader to instill some 'reason' into Karroubi?

0940 GMT: Oops. Much credit to The New York Times for persisting in coverage of the internal Iran situation when others have walked away (CNNWatch: six days and counting since their website had a story). Unfortunately, this morning's article by Nazila Fathi on the release of chief Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti goes astray: "[He] has been released in what appears to be a sign of retreat by the hard-core conservative authorities running Iran."

Retreat? I would love to concur but, pre-Qods Day and amidst a new trial, the threats against Mehdi Karroubi, and arrests of other activists, this is more a re-drawing of battle lines (see our separate analysis).

0930 GMT: Prediction Fulfilled (Within Two Hours). From our morning analysis: "The regime can now offer token concessions on investigations — a few officials reprimanded for Kahrizak prison, a prominent prisoner released on bail — while maintaining control of the process." Well, this just in from Press TV:

The Iranian judiciary panel looking into post-election events says its work is not over, despite having rejected claims that prisoners were sexually abused. "The three-member panel is still active. Its first report was about claims made by [Mehdi] Karroubi," Iran's Chief Prosecutor Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei said during a Sunday night televised interview.

“However, the panel is still investigating other issues such the [attack on Tehran] University dormitories and the events that took place in Kahrizak [prison],” added the prosecutor, who is one of the three panel members.

0825 GMT: New Media and Old Journalists. A happy coincidence to replace my unhappiness with the recent column by Roger Cohen mis-understanding New Media and reducing the Iranian people to helpless bystanders. Mahasti Afshar has a must-read corrective, "Twitter is Now All I Have", in The Huffington Post.

0815 GMT: Reuters, drawing on the Iranian Republic News Agency account, has noted the trial. There are six defendants today, including activist Abdollah Momeni. Fars continues to offer the fullest account, now aiming at the "IT staff of Mir Hossein Mousavi".

0705 GMT: The 5th Tehran trial has begun, and here are the buzzwords, courtesy of Fars News: "velvet coup", "psychological warfare", and "cyber-space pathology".

The prosecution's rhetoric is familiar and, to be honest, a bit tiresome. This, however, raises an eyebrow on the Iran Government's perception of the power of social media (are you reading, Roger Cohen?): "25 million Iranian users use the network site Facebook and have been able to contact 200 million people in cyberspace". Some Iranian media had used these networks for "agitation" of "incorrect actions".

0655 GMT: The story this morning is likely to be the 5th Tehran trial of post-election detainees. The symbolism is clear, after last week's high-profile attacks on Mousavi and Karroubi campaigns and attempts to quash any investigation of the abuse of detainees: We're in Charge Here.

Yet, for all the drama of its move, the Government --- at least in my view --- has not succeeding in quashing the Green opposition. We've posted a special analysis, "The Protest Goes On".

The Government's confrontation with the opposition still has some carrot on the stick. One piece of news from yesterday that we wanted to confirm: the human rights lawyer Mohammad Ali Dadkhah has been released on $500,000 bail.