Qods Day: The Discussion Continues

The Latest from Iran (18 September): Qods Day
NEW Iran Video: Qods Day Protests (18 September)

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First and foremost, a big thanks to each and everyone of you for making this the best day in Enduring America's history (and possibly a good day in Iran's history, but that's for you to debate). Response has been so great that this space is now opened up to continue discussion --- earlier debate is in our Update thread.

Iran Qods Day: Snap Analysis and Summary Translation of Ahmadinejad Speech

The Latest from Iran (18 September): Qods Day
NEW Iran Video: Qods Day Protests (18 September)
UPDATED Iran: The Full NBC TV Interview with President Ahmadinejad
NEW Iran: What’s at Stake on Qods Day for Green Movement and Regime?

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Mr Smith gives a snap analysis of the President's language and strategy:

There was no mention whatsoever of internal Iranian politics or struggles, apart from the notion that the Iranian people is wholeheartedly behind the Supreme Leader [and, presumably, the Government]. Ahmadinejad's rehashed Holocaust revisionism for quite some time. I guess this was because for months he was silent on the theme.

There were more attacks on European nations, accusing them at times of complicity with the Zionists. It is interesting that, while Ahmadinejad has written off next week's demonstrations in New York when he appears at the United Nations, he is aware of them.

Summary Translation of Speech

0745 GMT: President Ahmadinejad starting his speech introducing Friday Prayers.

0755 GMT: Holocaust once again. He is asking on why research on the Holocaust has been impeded. Palestine most important problem of the world. Iraq. Afghanistan, Sudan being trampled, all due to Zionists. All imperialism due to Zionists. Why don't you allow the main reason of the Palestinian plight to be analysed?

0800 GMT: The Europeans are supporting the crimes of the Zionists and are creating anti-Jewish sentiment to further the Israeli crowds. All are for domination on the world.

We have to give rights to Indian redskins [Native Americans]. They had culture and heritage. You have encroached on them and killed millions. [Nice touch. Ahmadinejad stands alongside the first victims of "American imperialism".]

0802 GMT: We should have 72 countries in Europe. Even Russia has to be dismembered if every nation is to go independent. [Hmm....Can't see Moscow being too pleased about this.]

0807 GMT: All the bits and pieces of Israel's regime are against humanity. All of the components of Israel's government and regime have no faith against faiths of the world.

0814 GMT: EA Correspondent - "Ahmadinejad still going on in same terms about Israel."

0818 GMT: Some US, European politicians have told us, "You can shout against us, don't shout slogans against these Zionists." They will put us under pressure. Big companies in Europe, US cannot do business unless they have Zionist stakeholders. [Ahmadinejad's get-out clause for Iran's economic difficulties?]

World should know that Zionism is the best example of racism. They are people that have no respect for anything but their own. Even the US president --- should they manage it --- they will assassinate him.

0822 GMT: Iranian people are the flagbearer of everything good in the world: justice, pureness, peace and friendship. Resistance towards this [Israeli] regime is a national and global duty. The people of Iran will never put this flag down. The only route for salvation is resisting the corrupt Zionist channel in the world. You should know that, due to God's will, the final victory of the revolutionary people of the world front against Zionism is in our hands.

0824 GMT: EA Correspondent - "Chants inside Tehran Uni exclusively in line with regime. There seems to be no Green presence inside."

0826 GMT: The influence of Zionism is permeating everywhere. When they influence, they will never leave. A US professor would tell me that one of them requested to be employed after no appointments were made in the past 5-6 years. He came back to that university a few years later. The faculty was infested with Zionists.

0827 GMT: Messages to nations friendly to this [Israeli, not Iranian, I presume] regime. This regime is nearing its end. Occupation and rape are nearing their end.

You shoot a million-dollar missile towards a smaller value building in Gaza. The million-dollar part cannot emerge victorious! This regime has no future. They are building walls along themselves. We advise you: relinquish support for the Zionists. This regime is doomed, do not attach yourself to it. Even if 1000 years would pass, the nations of the region will not acknowledge this regime or recognise it.

0830 GMT: We want [Palestinian] refugees to come back and decide their own future. [But the Israelis] have built several scenarios to reduce the dimension of the Iranian people. They are rallying some people in New York. The Iranian nation shall not crush a single grain for these machinations. The Iranian people have declared that they are ready and stands by the values of its Leader. They struggle against tyrants and hold high the flag of freedom and justice and will never set it down.

0833 GMT: Ahmadinejad ends his speech.

Iran: What's at Stake on Qods Day for Green Movement and Regime?

The Latest from Iran (18 September): Qods Day

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Enduring America's Mr Smith prepares for today:

Qods Day is going to be a significant development in the post-June 12 election drama that has gripped Iran. It will probably be at least equivalent in significance to 17 July, when former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani delivered a strong sermon stressing the need to respect popular will within the confines of the Islamic Republic's elite.

The reformists are chasing a few important goals in tomorrow's demonstration. First and foremost, it gives an opportunity both for the leadership and the rank and file supporters of the Green Wave to "stand up and be counted". It will be the possible setting for a morale-boosting strong presence. Protestors will be back in the streets of central Tehran, following month of retreat from the waning but ever-lively cycle of martyr commemorations and street demonstrations that proceeded unabated from 13 June to the end of July. It will also be an opportunity to indicate that the most recent tool of repression set loose by the regime, the indiscriminate raping of opposition supporters that joined baton attacks and occasional murder as methods of coercion, did not succeed in dampening the morale of the reformist supporters.


Of the reformist leaders, Mousavi is the one that needs to capitalise most from marching alongside his supporters. The former Prime Minister has largely played second fiddle to the other defeated moderate candidate, Mehdi Karroubi, in the latter part of the three-month post-election saga. He has lost the lead in producing communiques challenging the regime, and he has not produced anything as ground-breaking and earth-shattering as Karroubi's series of strong accusations regarding rape that has cost the former Majlis speaker the ban of his long-running newspaper, Etemade Melli, but has won him tremendous popular support. Likewise, former president Mohammad Khatami has largely lurked in the shadows since initially coming out strongly and challenging the Supreme Leader in very thinly veiled terms for the Kahrizak Prison abuses. Both Mousavi and Khatami will therefore need to augment their stature as reformist leaders, as neither is yet ready to bow to Karroubi. Although the three are adamant opponents of Ahmadinejad, they are also vying at the same time for the leadership of the opposition.

The government forces have several paths to tread with utmost care. Ahmadinejad will be heading to New York within hours of the Friday Qods Day events, and he will most likely want to avoid arriving in the Big Apple to account for yet another high violence toll in what is going to be a long sparring match with the international media. Likewise, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will want to minimise public violence in the first, major street demonstration to hit Iran during Ramadan for at least 30 years. It is therefore to be expected that the ordinary law enforcement forces will have the order to keep violence at a minimum. The same cannot be applied to the Basiji and other autonomous forces, who are probably going to unleash violence of their own accord. The traditional itinerary of the Qods Day march also poses serious logistical problems for the government, starting as it does in various parts of the city to converge in front of the University, where participants would usually go and attend Friday prayers.

The complex scenario above leads to think that Qods will effectively protract the stalemate between the various contenders in Iran's chess game. The government will not find solace in the fact that Iran's calendar is replete with other religious festivities and anniversaries that the reformist opposition can use at will to return to the streets. In the background, impenetrable as ever, stands Hashemi Rafsanjani, who inched closer to the opposition this week as he was thrusted out of the leadership of the first Qods prayer in almost a quarter century. The million-dollar question was, and remains, does he really have the power to break that stalemate and is he willing to do so?

Qods Day: Enduring America's Coverage

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Tomorrow, on Qods (Jerusalem) Day in Iran, Enduring America will combine the best of all-day news coverage with quick, sharp analysis. EA's Mr Smith will provide live analysis during the speech of President Ahmadinejad and the Friday Prayer of Ahmad Khatami. (We may also have almost-live translation.) Scott Lucas will be on March Watch and will also be reading the political developments, supported by EA's Chris Emery and correspondents in Iran, Europe, and North America. We'll also be gathering the best information from news outlets, the Web, Twitter, private sources, and our readers, and we'll be linking up with some of the best blogs on Iran on the Internet..

Coverage starts at 0600 GMT (9:30 a.m. Tehran time).

The Latest from Iran (17 September): Tomorrow

Latest Iran Video: Ayatollah Dastgheib Condemns Khamenei (31 Aug/5 Sept?)
UPDATED Iran: The NBC TV Interview with President Ahmadinejad
Qods Day: A Protest For Palestine or Against Iran’s Government?
Iran: So, What Are the Green Movement’s Goals Tomorrow?
Iran’s Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces for Friday
The Latest from Iran (16 September): Smoke Before Battle

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2055 GMT: Reports that writer and blogger Ali Pirhousienlou and hsi wife Fatemeh Sotoudeh have been arrested.

1930 GMT: In addition to the assassination of the Assembly of Experts member (1750 GMT), it is reported that the Chief Prosecutor in Kurdestan has been shot.

1845 GMT: Tomorrow's march routes for Mashhad and for Rasht have been posted.

1750 GMT: In the latest of a series of assassinations in the province, the Kurdistan representative on the Assembly of Experts was killed today.

1705 GMT: An EA source sends us this from a Tehran resident: "People will come out but many are also leaving Tehran as it is a long weekend. Saturday is half closed and Sunday is a holiday. Many who participated in previous demonstrations are leaving Tehran or have left already and many are much scared of what happened to their colleagues, friends and other citizens."

1640 GMT: The Marches. Iranian activist HomyLafayette has posted the routes for tomorrow's marches in Tehran (7 routes ending at the University of Tehran; start at 10 a.m. local time; 0530 GMT), Isfahan, and Tabriz.

1545 GMT: Radio Farda reports that Mohammad Maleki, the former chancellor of Tehran University, has been charged with acting against Iran's national security. Maleki, who is 76 and suffering from prostate cancer, was arrested on 22 August.

1410 GMT: Mehdi Mousavi-Nejad, the brother of the wife of detained former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, has been arrested.

1310 GMT: Lemming MediaFail. Adding to NBC's threatened ludicrous journalism at the court of President Ahmadinejad (see separate entry), Reuters offers a spectacularly bad headline, "Iran opposition leaders to attend anti-Israel rally".

And in case you think that this is a slip-up and they do realise that the main reason for marching tomorrow is to maintain pressure on the Government, they repeat in the article, "Defeated presidential candidates Mirhossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi said they would attend the anti-Israel rally."

1305 GMT: The Government Warning. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has issued its threat through the Islamic Republic News Agency: "We are warning people and the movements who want to help the Zionist regime that if you seek any disruption or disorder during the glorious Quds Day rally, you will be decisively confronted by the courageous children of Iran....The enemies of the regime and the revolution and those who were defeated in the recent election are trying to take revenge for what happened on election day."

The IRGC claimed that dissent is part of a plan by "foreign networks, especially the Zionist regime's intelligence service to create disruption and division in the people's united movement."

1300 GMT: The Plan. Mehdi Karroubi's office has announced that the cleric will leave his offices at 11 a.m. local time tomorrow to march to 7 Tir Square for the Qods Day rally.

1240 GMT: Well, Well. The Internet is buzzing with reports of a visit by Mir Hossein Mousavi to Qom on Tuesday night, where he met Ayatollah Sane'i, Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, the brother of Ayatollah Montazeri, Ayatollah Mousavi-Tabrizi, and the representative of Iraq's Ayatollah Sistani. Mousavi also participated in a meeting of the Association of Teachers and Researchers of Qom.

We are confirming the exact date of the trip.

1030 GMT: Going After the Children. Confirming news we received last night: Mehdi Mirdamadi, the son of Mohsen Mirdamadi, the Secretary-General of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, was arrested last night. Mohsen Mirdamadi has been detained since shortly after the election.

Hossein Nourinejad, head of the information committee of the IIPF, and IIPF member Mehdi Mahmoudian have also been arrested.

1015 GMT: Credit to The Guardian of London, who have been running some interesting analysis on their website (though, unfortunately, not in the print edition). This morning Ranj Alaaldin and Nicholas Zanjani offer thoughts on "Ahmadinejad's desperate gamble", believing that his "administration depends on a redistribution of wealth for support and the flight of capital from Iran will hurt".

The article may be over-dramatic --- "As money continues to reverse course and leave the pockets of his supporters, those who voted for Ahmadinejad are being left to wonder why the government deserves their continuing loyalty" --- but it does raise the point, overlooked by most in the media but pressed on EA by Chris Emery, that the long-term weakness for the Government and possibly the regime lies in their management of the economy.

0800 GMT: MediaWatch. The New York Times focuses on "Iran Opposition Leader Sidelined from Rally", in what Robert Worth sees as "a striking break from precedent that suggests the country’s hard-line leaders fear the event could turn into an opposition rally". Borzou Daragahi runs the same story in The Los Angeles Times but turns the analysis into "the declining influence of Iranian moderates within the political elite". The Washington Post, with its preference for worry over Iran's nuclear programme, has nothing this morning.

Some of the broadcast media have now wandered from poor to terrible. NBC Television's staff have been shouting about their "exclusive" interview with President Ahmadinejad, to be broadcast in a few hours, but they have no apparent knowledge of Qods Day. CNN's Twitter posse have just proclaimed that they'll be following Qods Day. Last news story on the CNN website from inside Iran? 11 September.

0550 GMT: Looking towards the speeches and rallies on Qods (Jerusalem) Day on Friday, we've posted an analysis in the form of an important question, "What are the Green Movement's Goals?" Later this morning, we'll post an overview of the Qods Day marches by Meir Javedanfar.

Catching up with a couple of developments from yesterday:

An EA correspondent notes that the Rafsanjani interview downplaying his forced withdrawal from Qods Day prayers, summarised in Wednesday's updates, was carried by Al-Alam, the Arabic-language service of Iran's state television. The correspondent notes, "Why Rafsanajani chose to grant them his first post-electoral interview could be subject of speculation. Maybe he was told to tell the Arab world that Iran is not imploding?"

And a warning sign for Friday: Mowj-e-Sabz reports that Basiji militia in the town of Varamin have been distributing leaflets calling on their forces to converge on Tehran.