Iran Election Guide

Donate to EAWV





Or, click to learn more

Search

Thursday
Sep172009

Thank you for the coffees!

coffee cup cropOne last post about our coffee break. We'd like to publicly thank all the readers who've donated to Enduring America in the past week. We've been putting together some exciting plans for expanding and improving our coverage, and your kind donations have given us a huge boost.

If you haven't donated yet, and would like to support EA's work, you can do so by clicking the button:

[paypal-donation]

Thursday
Sep172009

EA Soundcheck: Scott Lucas with BBC Scotland on Race and The Attacks on Barack Obama

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

MICROPHONEThis may be one of the most depressing interviews I have ever heard, let alone been a part of. BBC Radio Scotland, using yesterday's news that former President Jimmy Carter had said race played a large part in attacks on the Obama health care and economic proposals, spoke with former US talk radio host Charlie Wolff and me.

I tried to set out the line that race is not the key issue here; rather it's only one element in the replacement of reasoned discussion of important issues by the shouts, led by talk radio and TV outlets like Fox, of "liberalism","extremism", "Communism", "fascism", and "socialism". All of this is aimed politically at crippling Obama as the Republican Party searches for someone to lead the Presidential challenge in 2021; rhetorically, it's even more damaging, portraying anyone who wants to make significant changes to address issues like health care as "un-American".

Unfortunately Wolff, who is talented enough to avoid issues and throw around labels like acid confetti, got the last few minutes, taking (and proving) my point to new, depressing extremes.

The exchange, which is up for seven days, is at the 1:40:00 mark of the programme.
Thursday
Sep172009

Qods Day: A Protest For Palestine or Against Iran's Government?

Iran: So, What Are the Green Movement’s Goals Tomorrow?
Iran’s Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces for Friday
The Latest from Iran (17 September): Tomorrow

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

RAHNAVARD QODS DAYMeir Javedanfar offers this useful overview, originally published on The Guardian website, of Qods Day --- "A Green Day for Iran":

International Jerusalem Day (Rooze jahaniye Qods) is observed in Iran on the last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan. This year it falls on 18 September. Jerusalem Day was designated by the late Ayatollah Khomeini as a day of support for Palestinians and opposition against Israel. It is a day when the government issues permits for hundreds of thousands of Iranians to pour on to the streets and demonstrate.

Some attend due to genuine support for Palestinians. Others take part because of government pressure. This is especially true of civil servants. Some fear that failure to attend could damage their job security and prospects. When it comes to the number of demonstrators, there is no limit on how many people can come out to the streets. In fact, as far as the government is concerned, the more the merrier.

This is in direct contrast to demonstrations held by reformists. The Ahmadinejad administration, using violence and intimidation, has done its utmost to limit such protests, if not eradicate them entirely. This has forced many of Iran's demonstrators to come up with new ways of voicing their opposition, using seemingly legal means. One popular method is going on top of their roofs to shout "Allahu akbar" (God is greatest). This is not against the law. In fact, this is one of the methods of protest used by those who took part in the 1979 revolution.

With Jerusalem Day approaching, opposition forces in Iran are sensing another opportunity to vent their anger under legal guises. As far as they are concerned, it is legal for all Iranians to protest openly on the streets on that day. Participation is not constrained by domestic political ideology. Therefore, in cities such as Tehran, there are plans by reformists to turn this year's Jerusalem Day into a green (reformist) day.

What is particularly clever about this strategy is that although green is considered as a hostile colour to Ahmadinejad, when it comes to Palestinian politics, it is a favourable colour (even to Ahmadinejad supporters), because it is the colour of Hamas. Therefore on Jerusalem Day it will be difficult for the government to ban people or to arrest them for wearing green, as they could use the excuse that they are showing solidarity with Hamas. In fact, we may even see some of Ahmadinejad's supporters wearing green.

This year's Jerusalem Day will be an important opportunity for Iran's reformists. They are likely to take full advantage, since the number of demonstrations in Iran has been decreasing due to the violent government crackdown.

This is in addition to other problems facing Iran's reformists before and after the recent presidential elections. One of them is the fact that their numbers were limited to major cities, especially Tehran. Towns and villages in rural areas showed less support because they are not connected to the internet, which made it more difficult for the reformists to campaign and mobilise support before and after the elections.

There is also the fact that many of the demonstrators were students. The majority of Iran's students are in Tehran or other big cities such as Shiraz and Esfahan. Regional towns and villages do not have big universities, so anti-government activities cannot spread through the student population.

Furthermore, the pro-reformist demonstrations in Iran have become synonymous with Tehran, especially its northern and western parts, which are considered the most affluent. In Iran, there is a certain amount of animosity held towards rich parts of Tehran, which has made it more difficult for reformists to persuade Iranians from other parts of the country to join them.

When it comes to aiding the Palestinians, there are many reformists who believe in an "Iran first" policy, meaning that Iran's welfare and national interest should be placed above that of its allies in Gaza. Although this does not mean that they are anti-Palestinian, it does reflect the frustration that many Iranians feel towards Ahmadinejad's policy. During the recent Gaza war, the reformist Kargozaran newspaper published an advert condemning both Israel and Hamas. This was unprecedented. No one had dared to criticise Hamas before in the mass media. The newspaper's staff were subsequently threatened and its offices shut down.

Despite such feelings, attending the demonstrations and showing solidarity with the Palestinians could benefit the reformists – especially in light of the recent accusations by Yadollah Javani, the head of the political bureau of the pro-Ahmadinejad Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who said that Clinton, Obama and Israel had supported the reformists in Iran. By participating in the Jerusalem Day demonstrations, the reformists could make it more difficult for the conservatives to level such accusations against them.

The reformists are likely to be helped further by the publication of a report in Tabnak, Iran's most popular news analysis website, that Mohammad Mehdi Zahedi, who served as Ahmadinejad's minister of science, held a meeting with his Israeli counterpart in Indonesia in 2008. This has made Ahmadinejad, who prides himself on being an ardent enemy of Israel, look like a hypocrite, much to the reformists' delight.

The Iranian government hailed the 2006 Palestinian elections, which Hamas won, as fully transparent, fair and just. Perhaps what Iran's leaders didn't realise is that those elections, and the manner in which they were carried out, were setting an example for the people of Iran as well – and now they want the same for their own country.
Thursday
Sep172009

Middle East Inside Line: Hariri Again PM-Designate in Lebanon; Israel's Roadblock "Concession"

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

HARIRI2Hariri Back as Lebanon Prime Minister-Designate: Lebanese President Michel Suleiman has reappointed Saad Hariri as Prime Minister-designate for the second time, although the political deadlock between the Western-backed majority represented by Hariri and Hezbollah-led bloc has not been resolved. After meetings with lawmakers, President Suleiman acted on the basis that a majority still wanted Hariri as the new Prime Minister.

Israel Removes West Bank Roadblocks: Haaretz reports that Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has ordered troops to remove 100 roadblocks from the entrances to Palestinian villages across the West Bank. The barriers were erected after the start of sucide bombings in the Second Intifada several years ago.

Israel's gesture is a belated compromise in the wake of an unfruitful round of talks with United States on the possibility of a two-state solution. The tactical offers a "concession" which, in fact, has no political cost but a possible economic advantage by providing a relatively integrated market (including for Israeli goods) in the West Bank.
Wednesday
Sep162009

The Latest from Iran (16 September): Smoke Before Battle

NEW Iran’s Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces for Friday
Iran: Montazeri Letter to Islamic Clerics (14 September)
The Latest from Iran (15 September): Momentum Builds

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

RAHNAVARD QODS DAY

2030 GMT: An Artistic Clash for the Supreme Leader? A colleague writes with an essential correction of our first item today (0710 GMT) on Ayatollah Khamenei's meeting yesterday with ""artists, directors, screenwriters, poets, and writers":

"The English version of Khamenei's speech to the artists actually doesn't reflect what the meeting was about. It wasn't for him to give them any guidance but rather, as Fars News fascinating account of it reveals, it was meant for the various artists to speak 'frankly' with Khamenei. While Fars New tries to whitewash some of the conversations that the artists had with Khamenei, it is clear even by their own censored account that it was a raucous meeting and that at least a couple of the artists, including Majid Majidi (who accoring to Fars News breaks down into tears) conveyed some kind of oppositional sentiment. One filmmaker when asked to speak says he doesn't feel well and sits down. Another when told there is no time for him to speak, after he had prepared a talk complains, 'You keep contacting me for a couple of days asking me to come and speak my mind and now you tell me there's no time?'"

1855 GMT: Really? According to Peykeiran, the Supreme Leader's representative with the Revolutionary Guard has warned that the arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi or Mehdi Karroubi would turn them into martyrs for the Green opposition.

Given that the Supreme Leader supposedly signed the order for Karroubi's arrest two weeks ago, this is a bit confusing. Then again, as our readers are debating in their comments, Ayatollah Khamenei's position may be far from secure.

1800 GMT: Easy Does It. In a measured, even careful, interview with Tabnak, Hashemi Rafsanjani has downplayed his absence from leading Friday Prayers on Qods Day for the first time in a quarter-century: "It is not necessary after 30 years that I should lead the prayers."

1555 GMT: Why are tents being erected around the main campus of Tehran University, where this Friday's prayers will be held?

1545 GMT: Make of this what you will: the Iranian Government has declared national holidays on Saturday and Monday, the day before and after the celebration of the end of Ramadan, Eid al-Fitr.

1310 GMT: Cyber-charge. Talk about a story turning in a few hours. The opposition's aggressive fightback on the Web continues: Mowj-e-Sabz has launched an English-language website.

1215 GMT: Cyber-bounce. Indeed, after our worry this morning (0950 GMT) about a drop in information via the Web, there is a bit of a resurgence. Mehdi Karroubi seems to have a new website for his statements and news. Is this an alternative for the Etemade Melli site, which is still down?

News is also being posted on tagheer.ir.

1200 GMT: If the Iranian regime is trying to block news in and out of Iran, the effort is incomplete. Fereshteh Ghazi has interviewed Ayatollah Mousavi-Tabrizi, who highlights the clerical resistance: "The authorities know [their] pressures have no effect on my position and action or those of Qom scholars." He adds, in relation to the arrest of his children and the family members of other clerics on Monday, "My sons and the sons of Mr. Nazemzadeh and Mr. Ahmadi aren't clerics, so why are they tried in clerics' court?"(summary in English via Ghazi's Twitter account)

Twitter traffic from inside Iran is also picking up.

1120 GMT: The US network NBC is interviewing President Ahmadinejad today and broadcasting the discussion on tomorrow morning's Today programme.

1110 GMT: The Mousavi Facebook page is still active, just posting the statement of Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Khomenei, inviting all Iranians to participate in the rally on Qods Day "a day...for the oppressed to fight oppressors and tyranny".

1100 GMT: Morning MediaFail. CNN ($199/story) are not eligible, since they no longer have news from inside Iran. Instead, the award goes to Robert Tait and The Guardian of London. Amidst all the tension in advance of Qods Day, the confusion over Friday Prayers, the raids, the arrests, the Karroubi letters, the protests by senior clerics, their story today?

"Chinese jeans bearing name of God anger Iranians".

In their quasi-defence, the prominent notation "Read This in Chinese" is a clue that The Guardian's market attention is far away from Tehran.

1050 GMT: Cyber-war. Internet traffic from Iranians inside Iran is almost at a standstill this morning. Nothing is coming through via Twitter and contacts also remove no interaction on Facebook.

Etemade Melli/Saham News and Norooz are down. Mowj-e-Sabz and Kaleme are both up.

0950 GMT: Correcting an oversight. We have reported the arrest of the three grandchildren of Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri on Monday. The children of Ayatollah Hossein Mousavi Tabrizi,were also arrested.

The catalyst for the arrests may have been an Iftar at the house of Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i. EA has received information that this Iftar, where reformist clerics and their families gathered, angered the regime and also led to the filing of a court action by President Ahmadinejad's office against Sane'i.

0935 GMT: The Islamic Republic News Agency carries the short item that President Ahmadinejad will introduce Ahmad Khatami, who will give the Friday Prayer address this week.

0925 GMT: Associated Press is claiming, from Iranian state radio, that the Government has confirmed Ahmad Khatami will lead Qods Day prayers.

0710 GMT: Yesterday's confusion over Qods Day continues. While Tuesday was a pretty good one for the Green leadership, as Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami signalled that they would join forces with Mehdi Karroubi, the Government's disarray over Friday prayers was never resolved. We've tried to see the events in wider perspective, leading up to Qods Day, in a separate analysis, "Iran's Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces".

Rather than offer any specific guidance, the Supreme Leader spent Tuesday telling "artists, directors, screenwriters, poets, and writers" that they should be putting out proper art. His reference point was not the current internal conflict but the 1980-1988 war with Iraq: "The eight-year Sacred Defense was the embodiment of outstanding characteristics, prominent cultural values, and lofty beliefs, and those who recount it in an artistic manner are like a mirror reflecting the manifestation of splendor and glory."

If there was contemporary resonance in Ayatollah Khamenei's address, it may be in this cryptic injunction to artists that "their sensitive views should not create a spirit of despair in people".