The Latest from Iran (15 September): Momentum Builds

NEW Iran Analysis: Checking the Scorecard of Opposition
UPDATED Iran: Complete Text of Karroubi Letter to The Iranian People (14 September)
Iran: The Rafsanjani Statement on Qods Day
Iran: The Protest Goes On
The Latest from Iran (14 September): Countdown to Friday

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2100 GMT: This summer's proposed privatisation of Iran Telecom has had everything from Russian involvement to Revolutionary Guard manoeuvring, so make what you will of this story from Press TV: "Iran has postponed the planned flotation of the country's Telecommunications Company, originally scheduled for Wednesday, in the Tehran Stock Exchange."

1730 GMT: Battle Renewed? From this morning's analysis: "One of [the challengers], conservative and principlist critics of the Government, has remained silent."

Well, we need to make a minor amendment. Sniping has resumed over President Ahmadinejad's choice of First Vice President, Mohammad Reza Rahimi. Yesterday prominent conservative MP Ali Motahhari said the appointment of Rahimi signalled "bad taste" and "a tendency to quarrel" by Ahmadinejad. Rahimi's academic credentials presented "the same problems" as the ones possessed by former Minister of the Interior, Ali Kordan, who was forced to resign for falsely claiming a doctorate from Oxford University.

Today MP Ahmad Tavakoli echoed, "Rahimi’s degree is fake and similar to Kordan’s.” He added, “Appointing someone who has a record of lying and abusing power who can potentially substitute for the president is regrettable.”

So it is this a re-run of Ahmadinejad's failed effort in July to appoint Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as First Vice President, an affair which damaged the President for a few weeks until he was able to push through his Cabinet choices?

1700 GMT: Khatami's In. An official from Mohammad Khatami's office says that the former President invites all Iranians to participate in Qods Day ceremonies "to protest the occupation of Palestine and the oppression of Palestinians".

1440 GMT: Meanwhile, HomyLafayette's blog has a useful summary of the still-uncertain situation regarding Hashemi Rafsanjani's leadership/non-leadership of Qods Day Friday prayers. in contrast to our own reading that the regime has now blocked the former President's appearance, the blog still says, "Will he or won't he?", before concluding, "For the protesters who aim to demonstrate in huge numbers on Friday, the answer may well turn out to be irrelevant."

1430 GMT: Qods Day Latest. The story of Mir Hossein Mousavi's participation (1120 GMT) is firming up. Mousavi's website Kaleme, supported by Zahra Rahnavard's Facebook page, announces, "Following many questions regarding the Qods Day rally, the office of Mir Hossein Mousavi has announced that Mousavi will attend the rally side-by-side with the people of Iran, as this is the day to support the innocent and oppressed."

The Internet is buzzing with the story that Mehdi Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami will also be present at the gathering. No sign yet, however, of a joint statement amongst the three leaders.

1320 GMT: No Carrot, Just Stick. Ten minutes after reporting the release of Mousavi campaign manager Javad Emam, we get news that Karroubi advisor Fayez Zahad has been arrested.

1315 GMT: Those Pesky Clerics. The Iranian Labour News Agency reports that Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani has had a "dialogue" with Grand Ayatollah Mousavi Ardebili on on the "issues and current events in the country".

It's this cute phrase, however, that highlights the significance of the discussion: "It must be pointed out during a similar meeting last week between several senior clerics was held." That "similar meeting" led to a letter to the Supreme Leader criticising the legitimacy of the Ahmadinejad Government.

1310 GMT: Stick. Carrot. Report that Javad Imam, Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign manager, has been released on bail after three months in detention.

1305 GMT: The Regime Blocks Rafsanjani. The urgent announcement on the Islamic Republic News Agency says, from "an informed source", that Hashemi Rafsanjani's appearance at Qods Day Friday prayers has been "cancelled".  A replacement will be named tomorrow.

Note "cancelled". Rafsanjani did not withdraw; the regime has decided that he will not be leading because, according to the informed source, his presence might bring unwanted political activity.

This explains the confusion this morning. The Government was obviously making its replacement plan, with Ahmad Khatami leading on Friday, but was not ready to make its move when Press TV/Fars leaked the news.

1300 GMT: Drawing the Line. Grand Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib has warned that the arrests of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, would be “an unrecoverable mistake”. Dastgheib said the opposition "do not want to and cannot threaten” and “we neither have military nor ability to deal with trained officers, tear gas and guns”; however, people have the right to express their anger and arresting the reformist leaders “will have unfortunate consequences for everyone”.

1120 GMT: Mousavi's In. The Green movement's website Mowj-e-Sabz has announced that Mir Hossein Mousavi will attend the demonstrations on Friday for Qods Day. Mousavi will also be issuing a statements urging his followers to join.

1100 GMT: After the rush of news and rumour this morning, a quiet phase. Fars has not updated its claim that Ahmad Khatami will lead this Friday's prayers.

Press TV, meanwhile, wins the award for today's ambiguous article, "Rafsanjani Urges Epic Turnout for Qods Day", avoiding any reference to internal matters for the motive "to foil world powers' plot to sow discord among Muslims".

0830 GMT: Or Maybe Not. Tabnak claims that the head of the Friday Prayers Committee has denied that Ahmad Khatami has been selected as the speaker on Qods Day.

Personally, I think this is just embarrassment that the news has leaked. Expect Khatami to be confirmed in a few hours.

0820 GMT: Your Qods Day Friday Prayer Leader is.... Ahmad Khatami. Press TV has just reported this news, which is reprinted by Fars.

0815 GMT: It is No Longer Quiet. Fasten your seatbelts, folks, because this ride just got faster. Fars News reports that President Ahmadinejad will introduce the Friday Prayers speaker on Qods Day.

0755 GMT: Confession --- this is a "holding" entry, as very little has emerged this morning after yesterday's rush of developments. We've tried to bring everything together in a new analysis, "Checking the Scorecard of Opposition".

We also have an updated, complete translation of Mehdi Karroubi's letter to the Iranian people (thanks to Evan Siegel) and last night's statement by Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Iran: Montazeri Letter to Islamic Clerics (14 September)

The Latest from Iran (15 September): Momentum Builds
Iran Analysis: Checking the Scorecard of Opposition

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Yesterday Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, the one-time successor to Ayatollah Khomeini, wrote marjas (senior Shia clerics), Islamic scholars, and seminaries about the deviation from Islam of the recent behavior of the Iranian authorities. Hours later the regime arrested his three grandsons.

Translation and notes by Khordaad 88:

In the Name of Allah, the Compassionate, and the Merciful,
‏
According to the Prophet of God: “When a Bid’ah [1]occurs in my Ummah, the scholars’ knowledge will be known” (Al-Kaffi, Volume 1, Page 54).

Honorable Marjas and scholars of Qom, Najaf, Holy Mashad, Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, Shiraz and all other corners of the Islamic world:
‏
With regards,

Concerning the abuses that we are witnessing every day and the illicit behavior that has been justified in the name of religion and Islamic jurisprudence: I herby find myself religiously responsible to solemnly remind you of the following, based on the danger that I feel and the gravity of [the verse] “remind them, [because] reminders will benefit the Faithful”.

1- We all know that our Revolution was one based on religious and moral values. Our goal in bearing the hardship of all those tragedies, struggles, exiles, imprisonments and tortures, was not to change the people in power and the formalities in some specific areas. Rather, the goal was to [establish] a government that was faithful to ethical beliefs and to clear, religious edicts on all levels.

On the basis of that authority, faith, noble acts, justice and freedom from dictatorship and oppression were to turn into realities. In addition, the rights of different groups of people were supposed to be protected and abuse and oppression likewise eradicated. Consequently, our people were to feel comfortable, safe and proud in the eyes of other nations, like a true model of justice, dignity, decency and human values. The goal was not to simply change names and slogans while the same oppressions, deviations and abuses practiced by the previous regime continued in another form, under the labels of theocratic government and the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurists [2].

Everyone knows that I am a defender of theocratic government and one of the founding fathers of the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurists, although not in its current form. Rather, the difference lies in the fact that people choose the jurist and supervise his work. I have made a great deal of effort to ensure the realization of this facet both scholarly and in practice. However, I now feel ashamed before the attentive people of Iran because of the tyranny conducted under this very same banner. I find myself responsible before God and subject to His reproach for the spilled blood of our dear martyrs, for the abuses carried out on innocent people. Many individuals with prominent roles in the revolution have asked me via letter, e-mail, or in person: Is this the theocratic government that you were promising the people and, as its executive, is this the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurists? The same one that we observe today? Because what we see now is the government of a military guardianship, not the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurists.

2- The honorable Marjas and learned scholars know well that in the course of history, they themselves sheltered and protected people from abusive and oppressive governments. They were honored to stand against oppression and to defend the religious and civil rights of their people. On this path they tolerated great injury and deprivation. May God grant them the best of Islam.

Regretfully, after the victory of the Revolution, this bright past came under serious scrutiny because of the government’s deceitfulness. Although the clergy may not have had a role in this, their negligence in “Forbidding Evil”[3] aligned them with that dangerous shift as well. The threat became more serious as the concept of morality changed and the theory that the “end justifies the means”became fortified. Ultimately, the Revolution deviated from its path and its initial goals. I must regretfully assert that the spiritual and popular base of the clergy, the Marjas and, consequently, Islam and Sharia (traditionally promoted by and associated with the clergy), has been so severely damaged that it is unclear when and how it can be repaired.

The association of religion with scholars and religious experts – which is logical and accepted by Muslims – signifies that any damage to the clergy will inevitably impact Islam as a whole.

Under these circumstances, the honorable Marjas and the Shi’ite clerics will have greater responsibilities. Besides partaking in their usual duties, which include availability and expertise, they must see to the added task of defending the dignity of the religion and cleansing from it the illicit acts performed by the government in its name. Because these religiously illegitimate acts that have been done under the banner of religion and Sharia’ and are also against the ideals of the Revolution, are a clear example of “Bid’ah”. Bid’ah does not strictly refer to the legitimization and introduction of irreligious laws. It may also point to any illegitimate act executed in the name of religion and Sharia.

In verses 9 -71 of the Quran, we read the following: “Believers, whether men or women, must [act as] friends to one another; they should command decency and forbid wickedness.”[4]
Based on the local plural of the mired “alef and lam” in the “Al-Mo’menoon and Al-Mo’menat” [5], all male and female believers have a responsibility [6] toward each other in the scope of “commanding decency and forbidding wickedness.” Thus, religious scholars have even greater responsibility and should not be silent. We see in the will of our master, the Commander of the Faithful [7]: “Abandoning the command to decency and allowing wickedness will definitely result in the rule of evil men; then you will pray but your prayers will not be answered”[8] (Nahj-Al-Balaghah, letter number 47).

3- Considering what I have said so far, let me remind you [of the following]:
Those incidents and atrocities that occurred after the presidential election, seen and heeded by the honourable Marjas and respectable scholars, should sound the alarm for them and for the clergy. Here, actions such as the violation of human rights, oppression, and so on – all illegalities in the name of religion were committed with the confirmation of a small group of subservient clerics in favour of the government. What followed was a peaceful objection to the government involving numerous classes of people who were critical of recent events. They acted within their legal and religious rights, based on the 27th article of the constitution. Instead of wisely and positively acknowledging the voice of a people seeking justice and the restoration of their violated rights, the authorities labeled the multi-million strong masses as insurgents, anarchists, and foreign agents. They then proceeded with a clampdown of the utmost violence, beating defenseless men and women, detaining many, and creating some martyrs on the streets and others in their horrifying prisons.

Relying on their military and security forces, and by drawing firearms on defenseless people the government have martyred and imprisoned them. It is very ironic that at the end of the day, the government labeled the people as [armed] combatants. It is the government that created this crisis in the first place and put the establishment in danger but then it labels people as insurgents and those who established the system as anti-establishment.

While proceeding with the clampdown on people, the government detained some of the politicians, political activists and gifted individuals of the country each of whom had years of invaluable service in the Islamic Republic. Based on pre-determined plans, and against rule of religion and law, [the ruling authorities in the government] started plotting against these individuals by forcing false confessions and displaying them on theatrical, unlawful, and religiously illegitimate trials. As a result, the entire world ridiculed the legal system of Islam. Instead of severely punishing those who caused all those atrocities, they [the authorities] only talk about their punishments; just like they did with those in charge of serial murders [of elites and politicians outside the country] They detain other ex-public servants and pressure the two respectable presidential candidates, Mr. Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Hojatoleslam Karoubi. They close down their headquarters and newspapers, and detained their colleagues and respectable coworkers[9]. They make false accusations to some of the honest and hardworking people in government dependent media. They even use the holy medium of Friday Prayers to spread lies. The ultimate consequence of such trends is an even greater destruction of the nation’s belief in its clerics, in the Shi’ite faith and in our dear Islam.

it is in this situation that our Muslims nation has certain expectations from the honorable Marjas and respectable scholars and this humble person. With the duty that holy guidelines of Islam put on the shoulders of religious scholars, and in light of historical and traditional responsibilities of clergies and Marjas, people are justified in their expectations. People are asking: if these oppressions, violations of rights and Bid’ah is against Islam, why aren’t the respectable Marjas and Scholars of religion who are guardians of religion and Islam and its guidelines voice their concerns against all the alternations[3] in Islam? Why don’t they who are protectors of people’s rights, and rules of Islam including the rule “command decency and forbid wickedness”, declare their abrupt disapproval against all the Bid’ah to religion? Are all of these oppressions, violations to rights, and atrocities less than ‘Moavie’s soldiers’ taking anklets from the feet of the Jewish woman? A move about which Imam Ali (may peace be upon him) announced: “if a Muslim male dies from the pain, he’s died a justified death”. Certainly, the honorable Marjas and respectable scholars are sad and worried in their hearts in regards to all the sins committed in the name of religion, and some of them have acted upon it too, but Is that enough considering the articles in the respectful hadith[10] necessitating declaration of disapproval?

4- The honorable and respected Marjas understand the power and influence of their words; they are well aware that the government needs their approval. This is why the authorities – at least for now – recognize and promote them, though very ostensibly so. The Marjas are also aware that the government takes advantage of their silence to its own benefit. So, is it advantageous to preserve silence on all the important issues such as dignity and respect for religion, concern for the rights of enormous classes of people, and the survival of religious beliefs among our youth? Is it worth upholding the silence when people could interpret, God forbid, the fact that the Marjas approve of and encourage all the aforementioned foulness?

To conclude, let me remind you that I have not yet lost the hope of reform. It seems to me that the great Marjas can implement a solution. A solution to help the Islamic Republic escape this crisis of legitimacy can be devised with their help and guidance, with the consultation of two respected presidential candidates as well as thoughtful, centrist, expert, candid and religious representatives from the establishment. Finally, let me also remind those in power to permanently – not temporarily – put aside their policies of exaggeration and false promise; to stop calling some friends and others enemies. They must not merely value people with hollow words; they must recognize them as the main owners of government.They must respect people’s votes and have their policies espouse this opinion. They must put Islam and the republic alongside true justice. It is not a disgrace to admit one’s mistakes; but to defy justice certainly is.

23 of Ramadhan-Al-Mobarak of 1430
1388/6/22
September/13/2009

Hossein Ali Montazeri-Holy Qom

[1] Deviation of the Islamic laws, or Bid’ah (بدعت): “An innovation in the religion, in imitation of the Sharia (prescribed Law), by which nearness to God is sought, [but] not […] supported by any authentic proof – neither in its foundations, nor in the manner in which it is performed.” [see (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bid‘ah#cite_note-3)

[2] ولايت فقي

[3] نهی عن المنکر : “Forbidding Evil” is an Islamic principle that orders followers to prohibit evil, usually by reminding others of what is reprehensible.

[4] والمومنون والمومنات بعضهم‏ ‏اولياء بعض ، يأمرون بالمعروف و ينهون عن المنكر : Translation of the Holy Quran, Surah 9- verse 71, by T.B.Irving

[5] alef and lam are the first two letters in the Arabic words المومنونand المومنات. They function as “the” in English.

[6] ولايت

[7] Ali ibn Abi-Talib, the first Imam of the Shi’ites and fourth Caliph

[8] “لا تتركوا الامر بالمعروف‏ ‏والنهى عن المنكر فيولى عليكم شراركم ثم تدعون فلا‏ ‏يستجاب لكم ” Nahj-Al-Balaghah, letter number 47

[9] Reference to the recent detainment of Morteza Alviri, Alireza Beheshti and others.

[10] Hadith (الحديث al-ḥadīth, pl. aḥadīth; lit. “Narrative”) are oral traditions relating to the words and deeds of the Islamic prophet Muhammad.

CNN v. Enduring America: Let Battle Begin

The Battle Continues: CNN, Enduring America, and the Iraqi Shoe-Thrower

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From Editor and Publisher: "The CNN Wire Store, which went up at midnight, makes its stories available to license and download for $199 per story on a single-use basis. Editors can use a credit card to complete the transaction."

From Scott Lucas of Enduring America: We're happy to do it for $69. Or $99 for two. And you can use 'em as often as you want. Heck, give 'em to your friends.

Number of stories CNN Wire Store has on the Iran crisis: 0

Transcript: The Latest Bin Laden Statement (September 2009)

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Provided by Juan Cole from the US Government's Open Source Center:

Praise be to God, Who created people to worship Him, ordered them to be just, and permitted the wronged to mete out fair punishment to the wrongdoer.

American people: This address to you is a reminder of the causes of 11 (September) and the wars and consequences that followed and the way to settle it once and for all. I mention in particular the families of those who were hurt in these events and who have recently called for opening an investigation to know its causes. This is a first and important step in the right direction among many other steps that have deliberately gone in the wrong direction over eight barren years that you have experienced.

The entire American people should follow suit, as the delay in knowing those reasons has cost you a lot without any noteworthy benefit.

If the White House administration, which is one of the two parties to the dispute, has made it clear to you in the past years that war was necessary to maintain your security, then wise persons should be eager to listen to the two parties to the dispute to know the truth, so listen to what I am going to say.

At the beginning, I say that we have made it clear and stated so many times for over two decades that the cause of the quarrel with you is your support for your Israeli allies, who have occupied our land, Palestine. This position of yours, along with some other grievances, is what prompted us to carry out the 11 September events. Had you known the magnitude of our suffering as a result of the injustice of the Jews against us, with the support of your administrations for them, you would have known that both our nations are victims of the policies of the White House, which is in fact a hostage in the hands of pressure groups, especially major corporations and the Israeli lobby.

One of the best persons to explain to you the causes of the events of the 11th is one of your citizens, a former veteran CIA agent, whose conscience awoke in his eighth decade and decided to tell the truth despite the threats, and to explain to you the message of the 11th. So he carried out some activities for this purpose in particular, including his book Apology of a Hired Assassin.

As for explaining the suffering of our people in Palestine, Obama has recently acknowledged in his speech from Cairo the suffering of our kinfolk there, who are living under occupation and siege. Things will become clearer if you read what your former president, Carter, wrote about the racism of the Israelis against our kinfolk in Palestine, and also if you listened to his statement weeks ago during his visit to the destroyed and besieged Gaza Strip. He said in that statement that the people of Gaza are treated more as animals than human beings. For us God suffices, and He is the best disposer of affairs.

We should have a lengthy pause at this point. Any person with an iota of mercy in his heart cannot but sympathize with those oppressed elderly, women, and children living under the deadly siege. Above that, the Zionists pound them with US-made incendiary phosphorous bombs. Life there is tragic beyond limits, to the point that children die b etween the arms of their parents and doctors due to the lack of food and medicine and the power outages. It is indeed a disgrace for world politicians who are content with that, and their loyalists, who are behaving as such with prior knowledge and premeditation, and under the influence of the Israeli lobby in America. The details of that are explained by two of your fellow citizens. They are John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt in their book The Israel Lobby in the United States.

After reading the suggested books, you will know the truth and you will be severely shocked at the magnitude of deception that has been practiced against you. You will also know that those who make statements from inside the White House today and claim that your wars against us are necessary for your security are in fact working along the same line of Cheney and Bush, and propagating the former policies of intimidation to market the interests of the relevant major corporations, at the expense of your blood and economy. Those in fact are the ones who are imposing wars on you, not the mujahidin. We are just defending our right to liberate our land.

If you thoroughly consider your situation, you will know that the White House is occupied by pressure groups. You should have made efforts to liberate it rather than fight to liberate Iraq, as Bush claimed. The White House leader, under such circumstances, and regardless of who he is, is like a train driver who cannot but travel on the railways designed by these pressure groups. Otherwise, his way would be blocked and he would fear that his destiny would be like that of former President Kennedy and his brother.

In a nutshell, it is time to free yourselves from fear and intellectual terrorism being practiced against you by the neoconservatives and the Israeli lobby. You should put the file of your alliance with the Israelis on the table of discussion. You should ask yourselves the following question so that you can determine your position: Do you like the Israelis' security, sons, and economy more than your security, blood, sons, money, jobs, houses, economy, and reputation? If you choose your security and stopping the wars -- and this has been shown by opinion polls -- then this requires that you act to stop those who are tampering with our security on your end. We are prepared to respond to this option on sound and fair foundations that have been mentioned before.

Here is an important point that we should pay attention to with regard to war and stopping it. When Bush assumed power and appointed a defense secretary [Donald Rumsfeld] who had made the biggest contribution to killing more than two million persecuted villagers in Vietnam, sane people predicted that Bush was preparing for new massacres in his era. This was what took place in Iraq and Afghanistan. When Obama assumed power and kept the men of Cheney and Bush -- namely, the senior officials in the Defense Department, like Gates, Mullen, and Petraeus -- sane people knew that Obama is a weak person who will not be able to stop the war as he had promised and that he would procrastinate as much as possible. If he were to decide, then he would hand over command to the generals who oppose this aimless war, like the former commander of troops in Iraq, General Sanchez, and the commander of the Central Command who was forced by Bush to resign shortly before leaving the White House due to his opposition to the war. He appointed instead of him a person who would escalate the war. Under the cover of his readiness to cooperate with the Republicans, Obama made the biggest trick as he kept the most important and most dangerous secretary from Cheney's men to continue the war. The days will show you that you have changed only faces in the White House. The bitter truth is that the neoconservatives are still a heavy burden on you.

Once again, if you stop the war, then that is fine. If you choose not to stop the war, then we have no other option but to continue the war of attrition against you on all possible axes, just as we did with the Soviet Union for 10 years until it disintegrated, with the grace of God. Continue the war for as long as you wish. You are fighting a desperate, losing war that is in favor of others. There seems to be no end in sight for this war.

Russian generals, who learned lessons from the battles in Afghanistan, had anticipated the result of the war before its start, but you do not like those who give you advice. This is a losing war, God willing, as it is funded by money that is borrowed based on exorbitant usury and is fought by soldiers whose morale is down and who commit suicide on a daily basis to escape from this war.

"This war was prescribed to you by two doctors, Cheney and Bush, as a cure for the 11 September events. However, the bitterness and losses caused by this war are worse than the bitterness of the events themselves. The accumulated debts incurred as a result of this war have almost done away with the US economy as a whole. It has been said that disease could be less evil than some medicines.

Praise be to God, we are carrying our weapon on our shoulders and have been fighting the two poles of evil in the East and the West for 30 years. Throughout this period, we have not seen any cases of suicide among us despite the international pursuit against us. We praise God for this. This proves the soundness of our belief and the justice of our cause. God willing, we will continue our way to liberate our land. Our weapon is patience. We seek victory from God. We will not give up the Al-Aqsa Mosque. We hold on to Palestine more than we hold on to our souls. Continue the war as long as you wish, we will never bargain over it (Palestine).

"Endless war will not tire me
For I am now fully grown and strong
For this, my mother begot me (lines of poetry)
Peace be upon those who follow guidance.

Iran Analysis: Checking the Scorecard of Opposition

Iran: Complete Text of Karroubi Letter to The Iranian People (14 September)
Iran: The Rafsanjani Statement on Qods Day
Iran: The Protest Goes On
The Latest from Iran (14 September): Countdown to Friday

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On Monday we listed five challengers to the authority and legitimacy of the regime. One of these, conservative and principlist critics of the Government, remained silent, but the other four kept us very busy. Let's have a look, shall we?

1) THE GREEN LEADERSHIP: Mehdi Karroubi just won't go away, will he? On Monday he issued a lengthy letter to the Iranian people, re-stating his case on the abuse of detainees and thereby taking apart the Iranian judiciary's dismissal of his evidence. He agreed to a meeting with Speaker of the President Ali Larijani, where the discussion went something like this:

LARIJANI: Karroubi, you should be silent from now until well past Qods Day.
KARROUBI: No.


Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, while arguably now in supporting roles, kept up a steady stream of information and exhortation through their Facebook pages. Only former President Khatami has retreated into silence in recent days.

2) SENIOR CLERICS: No fresh statements yesterday; however, Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's Sunday message condemning the transformation of the Islamic Republic into a "military state" spread rapidly. And the family of Imam Khomenei made their position clear, from greetings of freed detainees to the filing of charges against the pro-Government newspaper Kayhan.

A very observant Iranian friend offers this important sentiment, "The ulama [Islamic scholars] are now uniting against this Government."

3) HASHEMI RAFSANJANI: The position of "The Shark", read through last night's statement on Qods (Jerusalem) Day, is in the eye of the beholder. Are the former President's words to be read as a straightforward invocation for Iranians to support the Palestinian people? Or is the message, with its reference to "an absolutely illegitimate, fraudulent, and usurping Government", to be applied closer to home?

My reaction is that Rafsanjani has cleverly put out the possibility of an endorsement of opposition while being able to respond, if pressed, "No, I didn't say that." The important dimension, however, is not my reaction but that of the millions who learn of this statement. If they interpret it as support for the cause, then the challenge to the regime will have been bolstered.

4) THE IRANIAN PEOPLE: So how many Iranians are behind the Green movement and/or its allies? How many are not "for" it but happy to stand by, despite Government injunctions to stand firm against a "velvet coup"? I'm a fool but not foolish enough to venture an answer.

Two well-informed Iranian friends discussed this with me yesterday and offered this: the number of Iranians seeking meaningful change has not diminished since 12 June. Some of those who had no defined opinion three months ago have moved behind the President; others have either been convinced by the opposition or alienated from the Government. But I think they, like me, are holding their breath for Friday.

Still I think it's safe to reaffirm, as we put forth yesterday, "The Protest Goes On". The signs were strong enough to kick what was supposed to be Monday's showcase event --- the 5th Tehran trial --- to kick the sidelines. Despite the prosecution's strident repetition of foreign-led/cyber-driven counter-revolution, complete with another "confession" --- this one from Abdollah Momeni --- the general reaction seemed to be a giant yawn.

Indeed, if the Government was sending out signals, they were of worry rather than confidence. Consider the specific references in the trial to the power of "Facebook" to corrupt the Iranian public and the attention to Mir Hossein Mousavi's IT staff. That is an indication that the regime is considered not only about Karroubi's high-profile Web outlets but about the alternative channels, including the Facebook sites (which the Government tried to hack earlier in this crisis but which now appear to be safe from demolition), set up by the Mousavi campaign.

And then there was last night's final act. Far from being secure in its position after the criticism of the day, the Government lashed out and arrested the three grandsons of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. While this is a display of power, it is a power which is not assured but spiteful. It shows not deliberation --- as in last week's attempt to break the Mousavi and Karroubi campaigns --- but a hot-headed anger and concern.

Long-term developments, short-term challenge. I'll stand by yesterday's conclusion.

Qods Day is three days away.