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Wednesday
Sep162009

The Battle Continues: CNN, Enduring America, and the Iraqi Shoe-Thrower

CNN v. Enduring America: Let Battle Begin

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EA LOGOcnn2Enduring America ($0/story) has taken a great interest in the case of Muntazer al-Zaidi since he was arrested and beaten last December for throwing his shoes at George W. Bush. Yesterday, when al-Zaidi was released, he claimed that he was tortured in detention, including electrical shocks and waterboarding (see Ali Yenidunya's story this morning). So we were more than intrigued yesterday when Mr Jim Clancy, who apparently is a Very Important Anchorman with CNN International ($199/story), decided to address this sensitive topic via Twitter:

@clancycnn (15 Sept 1343 GMT): Clancy File Question of the Day: The Shoe Thrower: Hero or Hooligan? Send your thoughts EARLY and we'll read them out on the air.

@clancycnn (15 Sept 1812 GMT) : Some great, and FUNNY tweets today on the shoe thrower! Thanks to all...there were so many good ones!

@ScottLucasUK (15 Sept 1817 GMT): Because being beaten and jailed is a real hoot....

@clancycnn (15 Sept 1924 GMT): I don't have to agree with a point of view to appreciate it. Laughter is medicine and the shoe thrower might agree.

@ScottLucasUK (15 Sept 1933 GMT): He's giggling most about the waterboarding....
Wednesday
Sep162009

Middle East Inside Line: Talks with Iran To Start in Turkey; No Progress in Israel-Palestine Discussions

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IRAN NUKESDirect Talks with Iran on 1 October: The Jerusalem Post reports, from a senior European Union official that "talks on Iran's nuclear program will likely be held in Turkey". Referring to the meeting, scheduled for 1 October, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said: "The Americans will be present in a formalized manner. This is new."

Europe is ready and waiting for a positive outcome from direct talks between Iranians and the Washington-led international community. Simultaneously, it seems that the US has given consent to Ankara's willingness to be the "bridge" in these negotiations.

No Progress in Israel-Palestine Talks: U.S. Mideast special envoy George Mitchell met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas on Wednesday. Haaretz reports that the talks were fruitless and no agreement came out at the end of talks.

After rounds of meetings, Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat blamed Israel for stalling the resumption of peace talks and insisted that all settlement building must stop. Mitchell also could not get "sufficient" concessions from Netanyahu, as the Israeli Prime Minister rejected concessions on "the natural growth" of the West Bank settlements, on the planned construction of 3,000 new apartments in the West Bank, and on his claim of Israeli ownership of East Jerusalem.

Mitchell said the U.S. is committed to the resumption of peace talks and that he hoped to bring this phase of the effort to a positive conclusion in the coming weeks. The envoy is hoping he can bring Netanyahu and Abbas together with President Barack Obama at the openning of the UN General Assembly session next week. Aides of Abbas reportedly said that he might agree to an informal meeting with Netanyahu in New York.
Wednesday
Sep162009

Iran: The Supreme Leader and the Larijani-Karroubi Meeting

Iran’s Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces for Friday
The Latest from Iran (16 September): Smoke Before Battle

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KHAMENEI4Maryam at Keeping the Change has posted an article on Monday's meeting between Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani and Mehdi Karroubi, offering important detail on the discussion. Equally significant is her reading of the power politics behind the encounter:

"The combination of these contradictory tactics may indicate that Khamanei is carefully crafting a strategy for resolving the post-election conflict that applies these different forms of pressure where appropriate. At the same time, however, Khamanei's approach could indicate that the Supreme Leader has a thin, unguided non-strategy and is simply throwing all his resources at the Opposition, in a desperate attempt to end the political standoff -- on this analysis, Khamanei's alternative use of aggression and diplomacy is less an affirmative, calculated decision and more a reaction to the failure of one or the other approach."

Maryam's reading is a vital contrast to our analysis, developed this morning, that it is President Ahmadinejad and his allies that are in the lead with the Supreme Leader scrambling to regain his own position. At the same time, her pondering of "careful strategy" v. "non-strategy" could be applied not only to Ayatollah Khamenei but to the Government's measures in the run-up to Qods Day.

More Details on Karroubi's Meeting Monday with Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani

The website Rouydad adds additional detail to the earlier piece we posted from Karroubi's news outlet, Eteemade Melli. According to this newest report, during yesterday's meeting Karroubi informed Larijani of his concerns with the work of the three-man committee investing the prisoner rape and assault claims, as well as the actions of the state news agecy "Voice & Visage." At the end of the meeting Karroubi reportedly told Larijani of his hope that "unlike his brother [Sadegh Larijani], [Ali Larijani] will not sell his religion to the world." The report goes on to claim that Larijani asked Karroubi to "keep quiet" until the domestic situation improves, promising that his allegations would be properly investigated once calm had been restored. Karroubi replied, "I would prefer death to remaining quite in the face of these violations."

Interestingly, Rouydad's account of the meeting begins with a quotation from a source inside Parliament, stating that: "On the orders of the Supreme Leader, Larijani met with Karroubi. Mr. Larijani is the bearer of the Leader's message." With this in mind, Larijani's request for restraint from Karroubi and Karroubi's purported refusal to do so take on added signficance. As we observed in our earlier post on this meeting, it appears that the Refomists' hand is not as weak as some have suggested and that attempts at conciliation have not been wholly put aside by the Supreme Leader. If anything, this development, taken together with the events of the last week, may indicate that Khamanei is taking multiple approaches to the post-election conflict. On the one hand, he appears to be using some elements of his arsenal, such as the Revolutionary Guard, to strike a confrontational approach with the Reformists, while at the same time using other allies, such as the hardline pragmatic Ali Larijani, to pursue negotiations with Opposition leaders.

The combination of these contradictory tactics may indicate that Khamanei is carefully crafting a strategy for resolving the post-election conflict that applies these different forms of pressure where appropriate. At the same time, however, Khamanei's approach could indicate that the Supreme Leader has a thin, unguided non-strategy and is simply throwing all his resources at the Opposition, in a desperate attempt to end the political standoff -- on this analysis, Khamanei's alternative use of aggression and diplomacy is less an affirmative, calculated decision and more a reaction to the failure of one or the other approach. This reading is borne out by a pattern which appears to have developed post June 12, with periods of intense confrontation followed by spurts of appeasement and vice-versa (witness the fourth Tehran trials and accusations against Reformist leaders of collusion with foreign governments, followed by Khamanei's public statements denying the possibility of any such conspiracy) .

In all likelihood, it is the second analysis that may best capture Khamanei's mindset -- Khamanei is, after all, known to be less than an astute politician, with a tendency to favor uncompromising, agressive political strategies to diplomacy. He is, as such, disinclined to pursue appeasement unless his preferred confrontational approach has failed. In this vein, the recent events surrounding Karroubi are telling. After the raid on his offices, the closure of his newspaper, and the threats of arrest against him have all failed to silence Karroubi, Khamanei may have decided that conciliation should, at least in the short term, be explored. If Karroubi remains defiant, however, we should expect to see Khamanei return to his tried and true aggressive posture.

Other than providing potential insight into Khamanei's political strategy, Karroubi's meeting with Larijani should serve as a small reminder of the in-roads made by the Reformists over the last two months and of the Government's heretofore inability to decisively snuff out the Movement's leaders. There is little doubt that the current situation inside the country, as well as the Government's response, is unique in the history of the Islamic Republic. This is hardly the Iran of 1988, when thousands of political activists were summarily executed, expelled, and otherwise removed from the Iranian political scene. Of course, the circumstances were differen then: those killed and exiled during that period were hardly Establishment darlings, but rather were, by and large, members of dissident groups ideologically opposed to the Islamic Republic; moreover, their elimination was religiously sanctioned by a fatwa issued by Ayatollah Khomeini. Perhaps more tellingly, however, the recent events in Iran also bear little ressemblance to the atmosphere that reigned during the Presidency of Mohammad Khatami, when the Reformists remained cowed and unable to unite against the conservative forces that were working to disrupt Khatami's efforts at change.

Outside of the brutal crackdown against demonstrators, the Government has not yet resorted to large scale violence, such as mass executions or targeted assassinations of Movement leaders, to resolve the crisis. At the same time, the Reformists have managed to maintain some semblance of unity (with Khatami, Karroubi, and Mousavi almost appearing to alternate in the role of "Movement Leader"). Moreover, the Opposition has adapted its tactics in order to maintain pressure on the Government, focusing its message less directly on the election issue and more on the events and incidents that occurred in the aftermath of the dispute, such as the show trials and allegations of prisoner rape and abuse. While these may seem like modest accomplishments, the country's history of political repression and opposition to reform over the last 30 years make them the signposts of a society in transition.

As always, trying to predict where this conflict is headed is futile. What we can conclude, however, is that the Establishment has yet to achieve a decisive victory and that this failure, in and of itself, may tell us more about the future of Iran than any one arrest, office closure, or high-ranking political meeting ever will.
Wednesday
Sep162009

Iraqi "Shoe-Thrower" al-Zaidi: "I was Tortured and Feared for My Life"

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AL-ZAIDIMuntazer al-Zaidi, the Iraqi journalist jailed for throwing his shoes at then President George W. Bush in December 2008, was released on Tuesday. Missing a front tooth, he said that he was tortured and that he feared for his life,  believing that American intelligence agents will pursue him.

Al-Zaidi claimed that after his arrest he was beaten with iron bars, whipped with cords, splashed with water in the December weather, and shocked with electricity in the backyard of a building in the Green Zone. He vowed to reveal the names of senior officials in the Iraqi government and army whom he said had been involved in his mistreatment. He then added:
These fearful services, the US intelligence services and its affiliated services, will spare no efforts to track me as an insurgent revolutionary ... in a bid to kill me... And here I want to warn all my relatives and people close to me that these services will use all means to trap and try to kill and liquidate me either physically, socially, or professionally.

It is reported that Zaidi will travel to Greece to address health concerns. In addition to a standing invitation from Muammar Gaddafi to come to Libya, the Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez offered al-Zaidi citizenship and $100,000.
Wednesday
Sep162009

Iran's Chess Match: Setting Up the Pieces for Friday

The Latest from Iran (16 September): Smoke Before Battle
Iran: The Supreme Leader and the Larijani-Karroubi Meeting
Iran Analysis: Checking the Scorecard of Opposition
The Latest from Iran (15 September): Momentum Builds

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CHESSBOARD GREENIt was a quieter day on Tuesday, but make no mistake, there were some significant moves. And in those moves were the indications of both possibilities and problems for the opposition and for the Government.

For the Green movement, yesterday brought alignment of the pieces. Mehdi Karroubi, to say the least, is already in play; the question now, after all the Government threats against him, is how high a profile he takes on Friday. Tuesday morning brought the entry of Mir Hossein Mousavi with the announcement that he would participate in the Qods Day demonstration and encourage followers to do so; Mohammad Khatami repeated the process in the afternoon.

Expect the "followers" today to make their declarations, with political activists and possibly some clerical groups issuing statements that Qods Day will be their day. The obvious challenge is to turn declaration into mass practice. Communications within Iran are still difficult, and the threat of arrests and violence is strong. How many turn out on the street in the next 48 hours?

The most striking story on Tuesday, however, came on the Government side. The regime was preparing to shut out Hashemi Rafsanjani from Qods Day prayers so President Ahmadinejad could introduce his hard-line supporter, Ahmad Khatami, and signal that Enough is Enough and This Game is Over; however, its powerful move turned into farce. Pro-Government outlets such as Fars News, seeking a dramatic proclamation, leaked the news, and the regime spent the rest of the day issuing denials, clarifications, and wait-and-sees amidst the confusion.

This morning we still don't know who will take the podium on Wednesday. Fars now makes no reference to Friday prayers, and the Islamic Republic News Agency prefers "Green Wave disturbance in the scramble for Qods rallies". I still think Ahmadinejad-Khatami is the plan for Friday, but the Government has converted an opportunity into a fumble and stumble.

This is not an indication that the the President is trouble. Paradoxically, the bungling comes from a position of power. Ahmadinejad and his allies can issue declarations, send out security forces for raids and arrests, and count on almost all of the state media to put out supporting "news".

At the same time, this is a large bureaucracy, so signs of clever co-ordination may actually be officials working off different scripts. For example, is the near-simultaneous release of some high-ranking opposition activists (for example, Mousavi campaign manager Javad Emam yesterday) and the arrest of others (Karroubi advisor Fayez Ahzad) the ultimate in carrot-and-stick or is it a confusion over whether to offer limited concession or bring down the fist?

This is a bureaucracy which is supposed to be governing --- running an economy, providing services, pursuing a foreign policy. For all the headlines that the third task is being pursued, with the dance around talks with Western powers and Ahmadinejad's forthcoming appearance at the UN, the other two areas aren't exactly inspiring confidence.

This is a bureaucracy which is not yet secure "within". After the apparent victory quelling conservative and principlist concerns, symbolised by the approval of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet, the last 48 hours have brought the first signs that leading MPs may be ready to poke the President in the eye once again. The symbolic issue is currently the nomination of the First Vice President, Mohammad Reza Rahimi: how much of a groundswell against him is signalled by the accusations of high-profile conservatives like Morteza Motahhari and Ahmad Tavakoli (who is close to the Larijanis)?

I'm not even sure this is a bureaucracy which has a comfortable alignment of power between the Supreme Leader and the President. Weeks of shifting relations between the two were supposed to culminate in last Friday's prayers, where Ayatollah Khamenei would put to rest the notion that the opposition could prevail against his Government. Instead, the "other" moves of the week --- the raids and arrests, the threats against opposition leaders --- brought the question: is the Supreme Leader now a follower of Ahmadinejad and the Revolutionary Guard? And yesterday just adds a punctuation mark. Who exactly is deciding what takes place on Friday?

And oh, yes, one other question as the timer for this chess match is started. While the opposition tries to line up for Friday and the Government looks to convert its immediate advantages of more powerful forces into checkmate, what happens to the piece that was supposed to be taken off the board on Tuesday?

Enduring America readers have shrewdly recognised and alerted others that Hashemi Rafsanjani is not the opposition movement. At the same time, he has been a catalyst --- symbolic and political --- for those trying to put pressure on the regime.

Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami, thousands (how many thousands?) are ready to make moves on Friday. But does the former President suddenly jump onto the board --- and if so, are his own moves coordinated with those of the other pieces? --- or does he stand aside, possibly waiting for the Assembly of Experts meeting next Tuesday?

Qods Day is two days away.