The Latest from Iran (29 September): The Forthcoming Test?

NEW Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Obama Backs Himself into a Corner
UPDATED Iran: So What’s This “National Unity Plan”?
NEW Latest Iran Video: More University Demonstrations (29 September)
UPDATED Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Scott Lucas in La Stampa (English Text)
NEW Text: Mousavi Statement to His Followers (28 September)
NEW What is Iran’s Military Capacity?
The Latest from Iran (28 September): Signals of Power
Latest Iran Video: The Universities Protest (28 September)

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

2100 GMT: We have posted an emergency update of our story on the National Unity Plan. To be blunt, this has turned into a giant mystery which we can lay out but not solve this evening, and there are likely to be further developments (even though it is early morning in Tehran) for our first update on Wednesday.

1700 GMT: We've split off our snap analysis updates on the National Unity Plan into a separate entry.

1545 GMT: A steady stream of reports indicate there are smaller but still significant gatherings of demonstrators in Tehran today. This is in addition to the sizable protest at Sharif University.

1455 GMT: Fars News have just published a copy of the National Unity Plan. We'll be back within the hour with an analysis.

1430 GMT: Back from a teaching break to find tension growing over the privatisation of Iran's state telecommunications company, with 51 percent going to a consortium linked to the Revolutionary Guard. It is reported that the Telecommunications Trade Council will review the deal, with the possibility of cancelling it because of concerns over a "monopoly".

1100 GMT: I sense a debate emerging, given our readers' comments, over the latest move of Mehdi Karroubi with his letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani. Tehran Bureau takes the line that this is a Karroubi criticism, rather than a plan worked out with the former President:

1) Karroubi criticises Rafsanjani for his failure to launch an investigation into the election during his chairmanship of the Assembly of Experts session;

2) Karroubi criticises Rafsanjani for being absent during the final meeting, with its declaration praising the Supreme Leader and framing the events after the election as riots and a conspiracy;

3) Karroubi criticizes Rafsanjani for not asking the Assembly to investigate how the military is taking control of the economy, as in the recent purchase of a 51% share in Iran's state telecommunications firm;

4) Karroubi criticizes Rafsanjani for not calling on the Assembly to review Iran's foreign policy.

0930 GMT: We've just posted video from today's demonstration at Sharif University. It is reported that Minister of Science Kamran Daneshjoo was prevented from reaching the Central Library.

0905 GMT: Tabnak reports that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has distanced himself from his brother Mohammad Javad Larijani, a high-level official in the Judiciary, after the latter's criticism of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Mohammad Khatami.

0900 GMT: It Wasn't Just Tehran. An account has been posted of University demonstrations on Monday in Shiraz.

0835 GMT: President candidate Mohsen Rezaei has made a significant intervention with a call for a "national election commission independent of the three branches of Government".

Rezaei's proposal, building upon earlier criticism of the Guardian Council for its handling of the Presidential vote, presents a political challenge to President Ahmadinejad moving beyond a simple "reform" of the system. His interview with Ayande News is the closest he has come to alleging electoral fraud, and he is critical of a number of individuals.

0740 GMT: We've posted the English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's Monday statement to his followers: "Qods Day showed that [our] network is like a toddler who is growing incredibly quickly."

0725 GMT: Parleman News has now posted a summary report of yesterday's student demonstrations.

0715 GMT: Fars News tries to pour cold water on the Rafsanjani plan for a political settlement, featuring the comments of a "hard-line" member of Parliament, Ranjbarzadeh, that the plan is unacceptable because it gives concessions to the losers of the election.

0625 GMT: Iran's Nuclear Offer. The head of Iran's nuclear programme, Ali Akhbar Salehi, has laid out Tehran's line in an interview with Press TV. Iran "will soon inform the International Atomic Energy Agency of a timetable for inspection". The plant will produce enriched uranium of up to 5 percent, consistent with a civilian nuclear energy programme, and it is being constructed within the framework of the IAEA regulations. Salehi emphasised, "It is against our tenets, it is against our religion to produce, use, hold or have nuclear weapons or arsenal. How can we more clearly state our position? Since 1974 we have been saying this."

It is 48 hours until Iran's meeting with the "5+1" powers in Geneva.

0555 GMT: Karroubi's second letter to Rafsanjani (0535 GMT) takes on a added sense of urgency because of the Government's decimation of  websites connected with Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi. The Etemade Melli/Saham News site, the Kalemeh site (which had replaced Mousavi's hacked Ghalam News site), and Tagheer are all down. Mowj-e-Sabz, however, is still up, featuring Mousavi's latest statement cautioning the movement against violence.

0535 GMT: A couple of interesting shifts within the Establishment. The long-anticipated change at the head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting has been made, with Ezatullah Zarghami replaced by Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli. What is more interesting is the framing of the move, with Zarghami blamed for "the poor performance of the IRIB" during and after the election. Meanwhile, Fazli is portrayed as an ally of the Larijani brothers and a critic of President Ahmadinejad.

Contrary to our update yesterday, university classes have not been suspended for seven days because of "swine flu" (or Monday's demonstrations). The headline in Mehr exaggerated the story, which was simply that provisions were in place to order a suspension if fears of flu arose. Still, the

But the most important development by far came from the opposition. While Mir Hossein Mousavi, considering his next move, tried to reassure his followers that Qods Days was a success, Mehdi Karroubi may have taken the bull by the horns (or, in this case, the shark by the gills). His second letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani was not quite, "Are you with us or against us?", but it has asked the former President to come forth on the plan circulated at the Assembly of Experts. Put bluntly, Karroubi wants to know if the rumoured "political resolution" will take heed of opposition demands or sell out the protestors.

Latest Iran Video: More University Demonstrations (29 September)

The Latest from Iran (29 September): The Forthcoming Test?

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

Chants for Ayatollahs Montazeri and Sane'i

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZkwM5SAmcE&feature=sub[/youtube]

Sharif University

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFqTBKKcjsI&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeL900RN7Rg[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24ATG5l4gmA&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

UPDATED Iran's Nuclear Programme: Scott Lucas in La Stampa (English Text)

Non-Proliferation and “Iran’s Nukes”: Chris Emery on Al Jazeera English
The Latest from Iran (28 September): Signals of Power

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

UPDATE 29 September: Many, many thanks to an EA reader who translated the interview.

I had a long chat with Francesca Paci of the Italian newspaper La Stampa on Sunday, starting from the news of Iran's missile tests to consider the "secret nuclear plants" and the politics leading up to Thursday's meeting in Geneva of the "5+1" powers and Iran. Paci's original article is on the La Stampa website.

So Now, Ahmadinejad is Back in the Saddle

Professor Lucas from University of Birmingham: Nuclear Programme Serves to Divert Attention from Domestic Problems in Iran

PACI: What are the aims of the launch of the Zelzal missiles by the Iranian Army on a war footing?

LUCAS: The true goal of these large-scale manoeuvres in Tehran is to reduce Ahmadinejad's internal opposition. While the West responds to the military provocation of Ahmadinejad, he fights a definitive battle for his national legitimacy.

Rockets allow the Iranian leader to credit himself with the power that the June elections have called into question. So does the relaunching of the nuclear threat.

PACI: Let's start with the missiles: Why a bellicose military demonstration just now?

LUCAS: Iran is preparing itself for Thursday's meeting in Geneva [with the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China] and wants to arrive there with the toughest possible stance. When the second uranium enrichment facility was revealed, Ahmadinejad's government said he would consider the visit of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, but 24 hours later he said he had done nothing wrong, and now he launches missiles. Tehran cannot afford to snub the talks but Ahmadinejad wants to meet the 5+1 powers in a strong position.

PACI: Monday the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps tested the Shahab 3, a powerful missile potentially able to reach Israel.

LUCAS: I do not think the launch changes the military situation. The timing is what matters most. Ahmadinejad wants to promote himself, and the West has fallen into the trap.

Iran is not currently violating the Non-Proliferation Treaty, according to which the second enrichment plant must be declared six months before receiving uranium. Even the Americans have said the plant will be operational "within a year". The Subsidiary Clause to the NPT, setting tougher conditions for the IAEA to inspect the facilities has never been ratified by the Iranian Parliament, although Iran accepted it on a voluntary basis between 2003 and 2007. No infringement therefore, so far. But in emphasizing the challenge of Ahmadinejad to the United Nations, the media gave him the political stature that the June vote had deprived him.

PACI: The Iranian president speaks to the world so that his own country hears him ?

LUCAS: Yes, and the American media have swallowed the bait. In New York, Ahmadinejad founded everything on the nuclear issue, thus managing to deflect attention from his domestic problems. He gave five interviews that accredited him as a leader, and he achieved an important point in using the nuclear threat to stabilize its legitimacy at home, where the opposition is far from being tamed.

PACI: Is it conceivable that he will succeed in a remobilization of the Iranian people as the country faces possible new sanctions?

LUCAS: Not this time. Two years ago the manoeuvre succeeded, but after the vote in June, national pride is no longer a strong point for Ahmadinejad: after all, all the election's candidates were in favor of nuclear power. Iranian people have realized that the President is using the excuse of endangered sovereignty in order to protect himself.

PACI: What do you think of the strategy of President Obama?

LUCAS: The White House already knew about the new installation in Qom. Why do they denounce it now?

Well, Obama was waiting for the right moment to increase pressure on the Iranian government, who must have understood this and spoke before Washington could unmask the "secret plant".

The US Administration is divided. Some sincerely support the diplomatic policy, others consider the dialogue as impossible and push for military action. Obama plays on both sides. His strategy is good, but the tactics suffers from these divisions. Iran is a key actor in the region: if it were to be attacked, the Middle East would be lost. America can not ignore it, not least because of its role in Afghanistan. This is why Richard Holbrooke [Obama's special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan] insists on negotiations.

Text: Mousavi Statement to His Followers (28 September)

The Latest from Iran (29 September): The Forthcoming Test?

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

Translation from Khordaad 88:

Without a doubt, the Qods Day demonstrations remain a highlight of the events of the past few months. Promising results are expected out of what occurred during this event, which cannot be attributed to one faction or one view. Rather, [these] achievements belong to all of those who have roots in this land, even if some are not able to feel this blessing and this gift due to their own incorrect judgments.

This gift is the gift of the Imam’s [Khomeini's] foresight. He repeatedly told us to establish the right foundations such that when we are gone, they will not be able to destroy them, even if they so desire. Maybe we have not been able to truly act on this advice, but that is the path he always took. He based the pillars of the Islamic Republic on the trust of the people and created opportunities for them to come out [in public] so that no one would be able to destroy them.

Qods Day is one such day. With such traditions, people cannot be deterred and forced out of the scene. Without addressing and providing justice inside, [the authorities] cannot invite people to such rallies to protest tyranny in faraway lands. To leave behind no doubts, He [the Imam] declared that this day is not only specific to Palestine, but the day of the oppressed and the day of Islam. We now realize the efforts of that caring father who made sure that people always remain present on the scenes in the millions.

Thirty years ago, our Imam asked Muslims across the world to set aside their differences and come together to rise against a common agony that pains them all. This message is so close to our circumstances today. Islam did not say that we must think alike to be united. The unity to which we are invited is the same as accepting differences, and Qods is a day when Muslims should come together while tolerating the vast differences that exist among them. That is why if this event is attached to one particular political faction, it will lose its glory year after year. It will not achieve its promised vision, and it can no longer be the day of Islam and the day of the oppressed.

The vision of this day is to bring together different colors in one scene. This year, our Qods day did not achieve this [ideal], but it strived for it. In fact, this year on Qods day I was among people who greeted me with tight fists (Mousavi was among the state-supporters in the rally) and who wished my death. On the chaotic road we were marching together, I took a good look at them and realized that I love their faces and I realized that our victory is nothing that will bring about defeat for anyone. We must all achieve prosperity, even though some will realize this prosperity later than others.

In fact, those who felt defeated by this year’s Qods, gained the most. They saw in the clearest sense that three months of unprecedented violence did not have the smallest effect on the presence of the people, and in fact, made it stronger. If not for the opportunity on Qods day, it would have been months from now when they would have been met with their own blunders in the celebrations of Bahman (the demonstrations held in celebration of the revolution in February) and they would have come face to face with the high cost of their own mistakes at a time when it would have been much too late.

Violence is not the solution. Meet all with empathy (as opposed to enmity). Violence is like a horse that throws the rider to the ground. People have every right to feel angry about hostile security measures and unrelenting provocative propaganda, even if justifiably their righteousness does not change the consequences of their anger. The amount of fruit we harvest from our endurance depends on the amount of patience thoughtfulness that we are willing to maintain. If we move towards unreasonable extremes, it is possible to, in one day, lose the fruit of a week’s or a month’s hard work. Our people deserve better treatment from the authorities because they are alert and thoughtful. And a thoughtful person is he who can not only distinguish between good and bad, but also between good and better, or between bad and worse.

There are still better conclusions that we can arrive at, than those we arrived at on Quds day. At the same time, worse conditions are possible than the ones we are currently suffering from and are subjected to. On the road ahead of us, and in our historical context, there is no clear image of the consequences of acting against the current structure of government. As mentioned in the letters sent to the Marjas, Afghanistan and Iraq act as two big lessons on each side of our land. We should never ignore them. Of course, these lessons do not stop us from demanding our rights, because we have the patience and wisdom to change our destinies for the better without having to pay so high a price.

What can achieve the goal [of peaceful reform] is a commitment to the golden messages that we have chosen. A message that interferes with the friendship and brotherhood of our people will not help us restructure our national unity or our identity. We see the compassionate Islam as a cure for our pain. We see that what the authorities introduce as the banner of religion is a dress worn inside-out.

We demand the unconditional enactment of the constitution and the return of the Islamic Republic to its original ethical foundations. We demand the Islamic Republic, not a word more, and not a word less. To us, anarchists and people who act against the structure are those who avoid the Islamic laws, either with or without an excuse. They are also those who pull the plug on the constitution for their own personal gain.

Today’s political environment is not what Iranians wished for 30 years ago. Now, people are asking themselves: What has stopped us from achieving our ideals and has instead got us here? This is a fundamental question that we should ask of our struggle today and in future. What should we do so as not to face the same question thirty years from now?

We can only be certain [of the right answer] when we base our sociopolitical achievements on our everyday life. In the past century our people have had more than a few of such achievements. However, their achievements have been a result of a [direct] struggle. As long as the environment of struggle and endeavor lasted, these achievements were sustainable. But as soon as people were exhausted or thought they had to return to their homes the fruit of their struggle was lost. To fight [for a cause] is holy, but it is not long-lasting. What lasts is life.

This is a lesson we have learned from those of us who fought in eight years holy defense [against Saddam Hussein]. During those years two groups of people would leave for the war fronts. The first group fought during the war and then thought to themselves the time has come to live a life, to pile money and accumulate wealth or to build high-rise buildings one after another. The second group left [to war] for the more exuberant spirituality. They did not go just to make a sacrifice; they went to take part in that spiritual atmosphere.

Digesting these words may not be easy for people who have not experienced that atmosphere, but it is real. Not that they did not make sacrifices, in fact they were our most renowned heroes. But in the light of gems they gained they did not believe they were making any sacrifices. They lived the years of the war and then [after the war] started their own struggle, a peaceful struggle to protect that living experience or at least the memory of it. Without them, we could not have lasted [the war] empty-handed for eight years.

During the election campaign I was proud when a group of them honored me and formed the Isargaran [those who sacrifice for others] committee as one of the most active committees of my campaign. They said we have gathered together hoping to revive the spirituality of our days with Imam [Khomeini] and thus we believe our responsibilities are more burdensome. I doubt there is anyone in our nation who would not be proud of them. They are exactly on the common green intersection that connects us all to one another.

In following them, we should also live The Green Path of Hope, it is only in that case that the miracle they created will also awaits us. The importance of this year’s Qods day was that it revealed that the new life people have chosen is not something temporary and ephemeral. If we had all remained home [during the rally] but this message was [somehow] communicated with this clarity, we would have achieved nothing less.

Living the green path means that every day, while we are busy with our chores at home, at the workplace, in every street or alley, we repeat this message with an authoritative voice (in the same way that we continue to be Muslim, to be Iranian, to be of this age).

Soon after we spoke about strengthening social networks or living the green path, people asked: ‘How?’ The answer is: ‘Merely by being’. We don’t talk about creating a social network that doesn’t exist and strengthening it; we say that the people’s power is embedded in those social networks which exist naturally, based on innate guidance. We should recognize their importance.

This year, Qods day showed that this network is like a toddler who is growing incredibly quickly. This toddler is going to start talking in no time; it will be mature soon, and will compel everybody to admire and respect it. Our task is to nurse this blessed phenomenon by repeatedly expressing the thoughts which come to existence around it and to repeatedly reiterate their importance.

Likewise, when we are talking about living the green path, we don’t mean something complicated, innovative, or new. Rather, it is pointing to something that is currently being experienced. It is also pointing to the fact that our people’s movement nowadays, unlike in the past, is the beginning of a certain type of life. There is great pleasure in being smart and lively; in homophony and communication; in closing an eye to others’ faults, which makes life bountiful.

In addition, there is a power in the awareness of our nation that saves our nation from bearing many miseries. Our people are not afraid to pay the cost to revive their rights because ‘a place in heaven is earned with a price, not based on a desire.’ At the same time, if we want the results of our social movement to last, we better use a mixture of bravery and wisdom.

Now because of the wrong and adventurous foreign policy of a government that people have to bear, the country is on the verge of crises that will hurt the poor the most. If we had a confrontational approach, maybe in our simple minds we would have thought that this is a point for our green movement, but when we want to live through our green path, this [approach] cannot be our approach.

This is our country and these are our lives. It is we who should be concerned about and sensitive to these problems. Based on official reports of this very same government reports, economists announced that tens of billions of dollars of this country’s foreign income has disappeared. Meanwhile, [Judicial] institutions that ought to respond to these absent figures – which can even equip several armies – are ignorant and trapped in political games.

Which of these [institutions] can we expect to attend to the grief they have inflicted on the people? If we do not react to the things that disrupt life in our beloved country, nobody will. Our economists are alone in their objections because they fear the same fate as those who protested the shameful conduct that took place during confinements in detention centers. There was a time when missing twenty thousand dollars in the treasury was enough for a government [of this country] to fall. Now, warning cries for the loss of such a high figure are not even grounds for the slightest reaction.

Recently, a group of Iranian professors abroad provided their analysis and interpretation of the Green Path of Hope. They confirmed that the goals of this movement will indeed protect the interests of the nation. As a result, they have suggested that while sending our gratitude to other nations for their support in the last few months, we should ask them not to impose any sanctions against Iran. I liked their idea and I support it. Sanctions would not actually act against the government – rather, they would only inflict grave distress against a people who have experienced enough disaster in their own melancholic statesmen. We are opposed to any types of sanctions against our nation. This is what living the Green Path means.

However, this is just an example. No one has informed those who have offered this suggestion about the necessity of living the Green Path. Whether the rest of us are aware of this necessity or not, we are all naturally guided towards it. As a result, it is not necessary to indoctrinate each other with these values. It is enough just to be aware of them and to attend them.

Life goes on, and individuals are [living] in the interim. Any crowd or community that bases its very existence on one individual will be disappointed – at least when that individual is lost. Whenever people have afforded unnecessary advantages to their ordinary companions, they melancholic inevitably relinquish their intellectual opinions for the desire of a few and give a chance to the opportunists who have coveted them.

People who want to be independent and experience a congenial life should prevent the very first steps that lead them to failure. My birthday is not the 7th of Mehr (September 28th), it is the day that I got to know you. Even if I was born the 7th of Mehr, it would not have been appropriate for your movement to deteriorate with personalities. I hope you see that these words stem from my sincere concern and not from false modesty.

Your Brother,
Mir Hossein Mousavi

Middle East Inside Line: Palestine Unity Government Near?

On Monday, Hamas' Damascus-based political leader Khaled Meshal said that the organisation was close to an agreement with Fatah, thanks to the productive efforts of Cairo. The exiled Palestinian leader had been speaking with the head of Egyptian intelligence, Omar Suleiman, about the latest draft proposal.

The previous proposal was rejected by Hamas that did not want to be under the rule of the Palestinian Authority. The latest plan is an advisory committee, headed by Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas, in which both sides can run daily issues of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank until presidential and parliamentary elections can be held in the first half of 2010. Fatah will be allowed to deploy 3,000 security personnel to Gaza and both sides will release each other's detainees.

Meshal said, "We overcame all the disagreements in the Egyptian paper," however, he had suggested changes for an agreement to be signed by the end of October. He added: "They [the Egyptians] will work on laying down a final draft for the reconciliation project in the coming few days."