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Sunday
Apr042010

The Latest from Iran (4 April): Renewal

2225 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Javad Sharafkhani, the spokesperson for Mir-Hossein Mousavi’s election campaign in Ilam province in western Iran, has been arrested.

2220 GMT: We'll Get You (Even If You're Outside Iran). Minister of Justice Morteza Bakhtiari has announced that a special prosecutorial branch will be established shortly to deal with Iranians residing abroad.

NEW Iran Exclusive: Detained Emad Baghi in Poor Health, House Raided, Relative Beaten
NEW Video: Obama on Iran, Health Care (2 April)
Iran: 4 Ways the US Can Help the Green Movement (Shahryar)
The Latest from Iran (3 April): Celebration


2215 GMT: Economy Watch. Mehdi Aqdaie, the deputy director of Iran's Privatisation Organization, has said that Iran hopes to raise about $12.5 billion by privatising more than 500 state firms during the 2010-11 year, including two refineries and two car makers.


1835 GMT: Propaganda Watch. Press TV --- bless 'em --- get it right this time. A day after headlining the Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's statement with the prospect of nuclear annihilation, they correctly frame today's Mottaki declaration, which says nothing new: "Mottaki Calls For Global Nuclear Disarmament".

1445 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Radio Farda reports that Hossein Marashi,  a close political ally of Hashemi Rafsanjani and a cousin of Rafsanjani's wife, has been sent to jail again. Marashi, who has been given a one-year sentence, was detained last month but freed after a few days.

1420 GMT: Bayat-Zanjani and the Political Prisoners. Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, meeting the families of political prisoners, has said:

I am shocked that [our leaders] don’t learn from the fate of the rulers that came to power and fell throughout history? Why should one ignore the lessons learned from the past and commit the same wrong actions against the best of the people? Know this that the struggle to stay in power by any means possible requires confrontations such as what is being done against you. You are oppressed and the prayers of the oppressed will be answered.

1405 GMT: More Subsidy Fun. The Iranian Parliament has reconvened after the New Year break, and already battle has been joined over the President's insistence that he get more revenues from subsidy cuts.

Speaker Ali Larijani, Speaker of the Parliament announced that discussions have been "finalised", although the Parliament will “collaborate closely with the Government giving close attention to its views and reasoning.”

Defying Larijani, however, a group of MPs announced that they have prepared a new proposal for allocation of $35 billion from cuts instead of the already approved $20 billion. Ruhollah Hossenian, a fervent Ahmadinejad supporter, said that the proposal  has already been signed by 100 legislators.

1320 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist and human rights activist Abolfazl Abedini has been sentenced to 11 years in prison.

There are concerns over the poor health of Farid Taheri, a member of the Freedom Movement of Iran detained on 27 January and held in Section 350 of Evin Prison.

The status of Ehsan Mohrabi of Farhikhtegan newspaper is unknown.

Jahangir Abdollahi, a Masters student in political science at Tehran University, is under pressure in Evin Prison to confess.

1045 GMT: We have posted absolutely reliable, disturbing information on the poor health of detained journalist Emaduddin Baghi and the harassment of his family.

1040 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. A new Rah-e-Sabz documentary highlights the role of Hashemi Rafsanjani in post-election events and attempts by the regime to limit his public intervention.

0830 GMT. And More Subsidy Clashes. Gholam-Reza Mesbahi-Moghaddam of Parliament's  Economic Committee has said that the Ahmadinejad Government is seeking to delay the implementation of the subsidy reform plan. Parliament only gave the President $20 billion of the extra $40 billion in revenues he was seeking from subsidy cuts.

0825 GMT: Oil Crunch. Could disinvestment in Iran's oil production (see 0615 GMT) become a crisis? Consider the half-empty, half-full spin of the Government.

Iran's Oil Minister Masoud Mirzakemi says the country needs $200 billion in investment in the oil sector. However, the head of Iran's Committee for Transportation and Fuel Management insists the country is capable of becoming self-sufficient in gasoline production this year.

0815 GMT: Press TV Funnies. Yesterday, the Iranian media outlet featured a headline which indicated Iran's Foreign Minister was supported nuclear annihilation (see our 0730 GMT update on Saturday). We are encouraged that Press TV staff are reading Enduring America since, soon after we noted this, the headline was changed to "FM: Iran Strongly Supports Elimination of Nukes".

Today, bless 'em, Press TV is chronologically confused over Iran's promotion of a nuclear-free world:
Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast says Tehran's international conference on nuclear disarmament has been widely welcomed.

According to Mehmanparast, the conference dubbed "Nuclear energy for all, nuclear weapons for none,” will be held in Tehran on March 17th and 18th.

0715 GMT: Photo of Day (see inset). Behzad Nabavi, the prominent reformist sentenced to five years in prison, and his wife enjoy the last days of his temporary release.

0713 GMT: Movies and Rights. Activist Shadi Sadr has received Amnesty International's  "Golden Butterfly" award for appearance in film Women in Shroud. Sadr writes, "I believe [this] is for all activists of the “Stop Stoning Forever Campaign” –-- both those who appeared in the documentary film...and those who didn’t."

Bahman Ghobadi, the director of the drama-"documentary" No One Knows About Persian Cats, received two awards from the international film festival in the Netherlands.

0710 GMT: Renewal. The cultural newspaper Farhang-e-Ashti has reappeared after its suspension and the arrest of a number of its journalists.

0705 GMT:  InsideIRAN offers an overview of the emergence of the women's movement:
It is certainly too soon to draw conclusions or write endings for a fragile movement that has been under increasing pressure, but just like other aspects of the green movement, it is the outreach of the women’s movement within society that gives it strength and prominence. Despite the heavy crackdown on some of its most notable leaders, as long as fourteen-year-old girls across Iran are engaging in conversation, it will be an ongoing struggle and a voice that cannot be silenced.

0650 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Green Voice of Freedom publishes the names and sentences of 26 "lesser-known" detainees in Section 350 of Evin Prison.



Kalemeh warns of the declining health of journalist Mohammad Nourizad. Arrested on 20 December, Nourizad suffers from a heart problem and diabetes.

Nourizad wrote for the pro-government Kayhan but became a vocal critic of the regime after the 12 June election.

Baha’i photographer and musician Artin Ghazanfari has been released on $50,000 bail.

0640 GMT: Interviewed by Rah-e-Sabz, Farrokh Negahdar of the socialist Organization of Iranian People's Fedayyin supports non-violent protests, with constant pressure for change of laws and expansion of the popular base, especially amongst workers.

0615 GMT: A Happy Easter Day to all those celebrating the occasion.

More on yesterday's visits by hundreds of reformists to former President Mohammad Khatami. Khabar Online --- far from a reformist publication --- offers two articles, providing a list of visitors and observing that visits continued even after the noon prayer. Indeed, not all those stopping by were reformists; several visitors came in Government cars, indicating they are currently serving in the Ahmadinejad administration.

Mohammad Javad Haghshenas, the publisher of Mehdi Karroubi's now-banned newspaper Etemade Melli, has said that reformists should seek an understanding with "hardliners", while expanding their popular base of support.

The prominent academic Sadegh Zibakalam has evaluated that further sanctions against Iran are inevitable; China can lessen but not prevent them.

On the economic front, in a sign that company disinvestment from Iran is having an effect, Hamid Hosseini of the Chamber of Commerce complains about insufficient participation of the private sector in the oil industry.
Saturday
Apr032010

The Latest from Iran (3 April): Celebration

2000 GMT: Rahnavard's Message of Celebration "Release the Political Prisoners". As Iranians celebrated nature on 13 Bedar, Zahra Rahnavard wrote a public letter to Iranian authorities:
[As] the spring is the beginning of the new cycle of life in nature and freedom and blossoming are the titles of this new chapter, I ask the authorities to give the nation the freedom it deserves and free all political prisoners in this new chapter of life.

NEW Iran: 4 Ways the US Can Help the Green Movement (Shahryar)
Iran: The Clerical Challenge Continues (Shahryar)
The Great Nuclear Race: Google v. Iran (Arrington)
The Latest from Iran (2 April): Slipping By


....Seeking freedom, demanding democracy, and following law are the three main branches of Iranian society over the past hundred years, which still shine as part of Iranian demands. Even if we only focus on these three-branched demands between the constitutional revolution [of 1905-1911] and the 1978 revolution, we see that both of these revolutions are unfinished projects.


1830 GMT: We've posted a new analysis from Josh Shahryar, "4 Ways the US Can Help the Green Movement".

1825 GMT: Nuclear Self-Sufficiency: Posture or Plan? Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's nuclear energy programme, has maintained the line that the Atomic Energy Organization has already taken steps to commission "one or two" new sites, pending the approval of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Salehi told the Iranian Labor News Agency, "These installations will be spread across the country and will be built in certain points based on Mr. Ahmadinejad's discretion. Potential locations have been selected for the construction of new nuclear installations which will be announced once a feasibility study has been carried out."

In late 2009 Ahmadinejad, putting out declarations amidst the manoeuvres over sanctions and the Iranian nuclear programme, promised from 10 to 20 new sites.

1730 GMT: Poverty, What Poverty? BBC Persian reports: In an interview with the Iranian Labor News Agency about the lack of a minimum wage, the Iranian Minister of Labor, Abdol-Reza Sheikholeslami, did not know what the poverty line was in the country.

1715 GMT: 13 Bedar from Inside Iran. An EA reader passes on a direct report from a correspondent in rural Iran: "I've never seen a Sisdeh (Bedar) like it in my life, it's always big but this year it was the biggest it could be, because of the situation."

1700 GMT: International Intrigues. Back from a journey to the wilds of northwest Britain to find EA readers chasing up stories. For example, there is the Wall Street Journal's report that the International Atomic Energy Agency and Western intelligence agencies are investigating how an Iranian firm obtained critical valves and vacuum gauges to enrich uranium, allegedly through an intermediary representing a Chinese company based near Shanghai.

Beyond the necessary caution for this story, given the Journal's anti-Iran inclinations and the obvious spinning by IAEA officials and Western intelligence (part of a pattern reflected in the "coverage" of The New York Times), here's the political question: is this tale a component in political pressure against China to break links with Tehran and accept the push for tougher sanctions?

And if that's not enough for you, try out the ongoing drama of Italian court documents pointing to "a ring of Italian arms dealers and Iranian spies who were illegally selling ammunition, helicopters and other military hardware to Iran".

1045 GMT: Reformist Show. On the first day after the two-week Nowruz celebrations, hundreds of reformists have appeared at the office of former President Mohammad Khatami.

1015 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? Well, the President's giving it a bit of this-and-that tough guy talk as he opened an iron ore pellet factory today.

Ahmadinejad insisted new international sanctions over Iran's nuclear program would only strengthen the country by helping it become self-sufficient. Meanwhile, US pressure on Iran had backfired and isolated Washington in the world.

Ahmadinejad also warned Israel not to start another war with Gaza.

0945 GMT: The Women's Movement and the Green Movement. Green Voice of Freedom reports on Wednesday's meeting of Zanane Noandish (Forward Thinking Women) and women journalists, students and lawyers with Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Rahnavard welcomed the increasing role of women’s groups and organisations in political activities, saying, “Without the presence of women, there would be no great points in the history of our country and the Green Movement could never reach such heights without women.”

Addressing the emerging question of the relationship between the women's movement and the Greens, Rahnavard asserted, “A number of great movements such as women’s movements, worker’s movements, student movements, teachers’ movements are within the enormous Green Movement and their demands are common slogans such as freedom, removing discrimination, respect for law, seeking democracy. The resistance of these movements will help in the victory of the Green Movement."

Rahnavard added that the current interpretation of Islam of women’s rights was not at all "Islamic", “Throughout these years, certain people have attempted to misrepresent their own backward theories as Islam. Islam is a progressive religion and has the capacity to interact with the modern world.”

Rahnavard called for all discriminatory laws against women to be repealed. She said, “All segments of [women's society] in our country, especially women from deprived sectors suffer from a great deal of discriminatory laws and I am certain that even the free spirited men of our country suffer from these discriminations and are ashamed of them.”

0925 GMT: A Twist in the Friday Prayer? Parleman News has an interesting reading of Ayatollah Emami Kashani's speech yesterday in Tehran. The website takes his reference to the Supreme Leader's Nowruz invocation to "wake up and look around" as a call to the Government and even Khamenei to consider their actions.

0915 GMT: More Subsidy Fun. Politicians Mohammad Reza Farhangi and Akbar Oulia have weighed in on the dispute with the President over subsidies and spending. Farhangi said that Amadinejad's call for a referendum
after Parliament confirmed the subsidy law is "illogical".

Oulia insisted that the Majlis will not offer a "blank cheque" for subsidies.

0845 GMT: I'm in northwest Britain for much of the day so updates will be limited. As usual, input from readers will be much appreciated....

0755 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Robert Mackey of The New York Times offers a summary of the background and developments in the case of detained film director Jafar Panahi.

0730 GMT: When Nuclear "Spin" Goes Wrong. So here's the headline from Press TV: "FM: Iran strongly supports nukes annihilation".

And I think, "Oh my goodness, Iran's Foreign Minister is calling for the nuclear annihilation of whom?".

Fortunately --- both for world peace and for Iran's public image --- Manouchehr Mottaki, meeting the Gabonese President was not proposing nuclear bombs on Tel Aviv, Washington, or London: "Iran and Gabon strongly support the destruction and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons as well as the legal rights of NPT [Non-Proliferation Treaty] members to use peaceful nuclear technology."

0600 GMT: Cutting Off the News. France 24, the international French service, has complained over the blocking of its website by Iranian authorities.

0555 GMT: There's Always One to Spoil the Party. Iranian security official Saeed Esmaili wasn't in a celebrating mood for 13 Bedar. He declared that "driving with sabzeh (grass) on top of a car will be punished". We have no confirmation if the warning was enforced.

0550 GMT: Subsidy Battle. The former deputy head of the National Security Council in the Ahmadinejad Government, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, has added his voice to the chorus that the Government must implement the subsidy reduction and spending plan as approved by Parliament. Fazli added that the plan should be monitored by an audit board.

However, an even more important intervention came from Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, who has repeated that the Majlis will not reconsider the plan it approved, granting Ahmadinejad control over an extra $20 billion.

0545 GMT: Another Clerical Appeal. Hojatoleslam Ali Younessi has asked for the release of political prisoners, saying that Islamic mercy would solve society's problems. Like Ayatollah Safi Golpaygani earlier this week, Younessi, criticised the intervention of security forces in the affairs of the judiciary.

0540 GMT: Economy Watch. Another success for the strategy of persuading companies to disinvest from Iran.  KPMG, one of the Big Four accountancy firms, has severed its links with its Iranian member, citing “serious and escalating concerns” about the conduct of the Iranian Government.

On the surface, the move is being attributed to pressure from the activist group United Against Nuclear Iran, which had targeted KPMG three weeks ago for "supporting this brutal regime and its illegal actions". It is unclear if there was any discussion between KPMG and US Government officials before the decision.

A significant number of large international companies have withdrawn from Iran since the start of 2010.

0530 GMT: The big news in Iran on Friday was away from the political arena, distant from the nuclear controversy, the posturing on sanctions, the Friday Prayer address in Iran, the ongoing manoeuvres between Parliament and President over the Ahmadinejad budget proposals.

The big news was simply that Iranians celebrated the day.

There was beautiful weather in much of the country for 13 Bedar, the day for seeing out --- as in going outside with family and friends and enjoying nature --- the New Year festivities.

The Los Angeles Times has a summary, with some videos and photographs.
Friday
Apr022010

The Latest from Iran (2 April): Slipping By

1420 GMT: Obama Talks the Tough Talk. Continuing the public approach of a push for international sanctions, President Obama has told a US television network, "I have said before that we don't take any options off the table, and we're going to continue to ratchet up the pressure and examine how they respond. But we're going to do so with a unified international community -- that puts us in a much stronger position."

NEW Iran: The Clerical Challenge Continues (Shahryar)
NEW The Great Nuclear Race: Google v. Iran (Arrington)
The Latest from Iran (1 April): Out Like a Lamb?


At the same time, note how Obama carefully distinguishes himself from the line of other Washington talking heads demanding action because Iran is on the verge of military nuclear capability:
All the evidence indicates that the Iranians are trying to develop the capacity to develop nuclear weapons (emphasis added). They might decide that, once they have that capacity that they'd hold off right at the edge -- in order not to incur -- more sanctions.

But, if they've got nuclear weapons-building capacity -- and they are flouting international resolutions, that creates huge destabilizing effects in the region and will trigger an arms race in the Middle East that is bad for US national security but is also bad for the entire world.


1400 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Summary. Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani giving it his best, even though a lot of folks on 13 Bedar are more concerned with a day out with the family. He's going with "Iran has a special place in the Islamic family of nations" and "we are not seeking nuclear weapons but the malicious propaganda of Iran's enemies will occur all the way through this process".

1115 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz claims that families of human rights activists in detention are being constantly harassed by security forces.

The website also reports that film director Jafar Panahi is enduring "dire conditions" in Evin Prison and his lawyer is being denied access to his file.

1105 GMT: Now Let's See What China Says (and Does). Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, has struck his pose after discussions with the Chinese, saying that Iran and China "agreed that tools such as sanctions have lost their effectiveness".

Jalili wasn't so certain, however, that Beijing would put out that same line --- "It's up to China to answer that" --- and the Chinese response so far is limited to a call for "flexibility" in dealing with Iran.

1100 GMT: We've posted a new analysis from Josh Shahryar, "The Clerical Challenge Continues".

1015 GMT: Economy Watch. RAHANA claims, "Workers at the Ahvaz Pipe Factory have not received their wages for over a year. Additionally, upon returning to work after the Nowrooz holidays, close to 300 of them were handed their pink slips."

1000 GMT: India, Iran, and Economy Watch. Conflicting news on India's approach to Tehran: Green Voice of Freedom is claiming confirmation of earlier reports that India's Reliance Industries will not renew a contract to import crude oil from Iran.

Juan Cole, however, writes:
New Delhi just yesterday broached reviving a plan to bring natural gas from Iran through Pakistan and thence to India. The $8 billion plan has been in limbo for two or three years. First, the US pressured the Asian Development Bank not to underwrite the project, raising the question of where the $8 bn. will come from. Then, there were ethnic disturbances by Baluch tribesmen in the area through which the pipeline would run, raising questions about how secure it would be (a question you would want answered before sinking $8 bn. into it) Finally, Iran asked for an unrealistically high price for the natural gas.

But [now] Pakistan is pledging to ensure security for the pipeline.

0830 GMT: Controlling the Students. The Committee of Human Rights Reporters passes on the news that five members of the Council to Defend the Right to Education, formed by "starred" (monitored) and banned university students in 2007, remain in prison, some of them facing long sentences.

The Council's latest statement asserts, “We testify before the Iranian people that our friends have done nothing but demand for their rights; all the allegations against them are baseless. The accusations are revenge the enemies of freedom are taking against starred students."

The five are Zia Nabavi, detained on 15 June and sentenced to 15 years and 74 lashes; Majid Dorri, arrested on 9 July and sentenced to 11 years; Mahdieh Golroo and Shiva Nazar Ahari, imprisoned in December; and Payman Aref, detained in June and sent back to prison in March, serving one year and taking 74 lashes.

0745 GMT: The Iran-China Talks. More indications that Beijing is maintaining a cautious position on Iran's nuclear programme (see 0520 GMT). Khabar Online notes the discussions with Iran's top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili but also considers Chinese moves towards the US-led "5+1" position on sanctions.

0540 GMT: Slipping By? An EA reader has noted that the Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi has linked the anniversary of the Republic to a call for a public voice today, via a video and Ayatollah Khomeini's statement on 1 February 1979:
Everyone is entitled to choose his or her destiny. How can our ancestors be the deciders for us? How can those who were around 80 to 100 years ago determine the destiny of a nation that would be born in future? This is a nation that its destiny should be determined by itself and at this time is saying that we do not want this king.

0520 GMT: Yesterday was the 31st anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Republic, confirmed by a public vote in which 98.2 percent supported the Republic and a new Constitution. The day slipped by, however, with little fanfare: no prominent Government statements, no opposition demonstrations, indeed little of note on the domestic front.

Indeed, much of the chatter looked forward to today, Sizdah Bedar, the 13th day of the New Year and the last day of Nowruz celebrations. It literally translates as "get out [outside] of the 13th", referring to the invocation to be outside with family enjoying nature. Pedestrian has a humourous look, with mixed memories, at the occasion.

The only tribute we picked up to the Republic's formation was an indirect one: 31 years after the public issued its verdict on its system of rule, Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi asserted that Ayatollah Khomeini, were he still alive, would support another referendum on the Islamic leadership, including velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority).

Away from the lack of ceremony yesterday, Baha'i and women's rights activist Dorsa Sobhani has been released from solitary confinement. Sobhani was arrested on 7 March after the family home was raided five days earlier.

On the international front, Barack Obama has tried to counter the trip of Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, to Beijing with a call to Chinese leader Hu Jintao. Obama said, according to the White House, that Hu's attendance at a summit on nuclear security Washington later this month would be an "important opportunity for them to address their shared interest in stopping nuclear proliferation and protecting against nuclear terrorism".

We're still looking for any sign of an outcome from the Jalili trip. It is the lead story for the Islamic Republic News Agency, but the lengthy article has little more than the superficial public statements: Jalili with "Iran's approach is that people benefit from peaceful nuclear energy" and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs declaring that the relationship between the two countries is very important.
Friday
Apr022010

The Great Nuclear Race: Google v. Iran (Arrington)

Looks like Tehran has a competitor in the pursuit of uranium enrichment. Yesterday Michael Arrington of TechCrunch reported that Google, which to our knowledge is not a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and is not yet subject to international sanctions, is seeking to join the Axis of Very Dangerous Forces Who May or May Not Pop Up in a Presidential Speech:

Google has acquired a company that has created a new process for highly efficient isotope separation, we’ve confirmed from multiple sources. The primary use of this technology, say experts we’ve spoken with, is uranium enrichment.

Enriched uranium is a necessary ingredient in the creation of nuclear energy, and one source we’ve spoken with at Google says that this is part of the Google Green Initiative. The company will use the new technology to enable it to design and possibly build small, mobile and highly efficient nuclear power generators. “Google has already begun building an enrichment plant,” says a high ranking IAEA source.



As GreenBeat points out, “Google finally decided to launch a dedicated unit of the company for designing and building its own solar panels, wind turbines, energy efficiency devices, etc. So far, its green efforts have been pursued by separate projects within the company. Nuclear is an obvious next step for the company.”

GreenBeat first broke the story (first titled Google Has A Big Alternate Energy Announcement Forthcoming) after seeing multiple tweets about the impending announcement.

But other sources we’ve spoken with say Google has no real intention of pursuing nuclear energy, despite the fact that the company has promoted the use of alternate energy sources for years.

Of particular concern is the fact that the company Google acquired is based outside of the U.S., and little is known about the new enrichment technology they’ve developed.

Nuclear power generation is a highly regulated industry. And enriched uranium is a particularly sensitive topic and creation and distribution of the substance is highly controlled.

Enriched uranium can also be used for nuclear weapons production, which is why the industry is so highly regulated.

Says one source: The story Google is putting out there is that the new technology will be built for clean energy production. But all of the research and development they’re doing in this area is being conducted outside of the U.S., and the enrichment facility is also outside of the U.S.”

And more chillingly: “It would be trivial for anyone with this technology to build a nuclear weapon.”

Google, which has been shaken by its inability to counter Chinese censorship and hacking efforts, may be engaging in enrichment research as part of a new effort to simply protect itself from outside threats.

One source pointed out that if Google were its own country, its revenues would place it at 74th on the list of countries sorted by gross domestic product: “The U.S. government clearly won’t protect Google from China, so Google is taking the logical step of protecting itself with a physical deterrent.”

To be clear, most of this is speculation. All we’ve confirmed is that Google has acquired a company with a new enrichment process and that they have begun researching small, nuclear portable generators. But there is real evidence here that Google may be working on something much more sinister to counter the China threat. More as this develops.

Thursday
Apr012010

The Latest from Iran (1 April): Out Like a Lamb?

1905 GMT: Head of Judiciary Gets Told Off in Qom. Sadegh Larijani, the head of Iran's judiciary, visited leading clerics in Qom today, including Ayatollahs Safi Golpaygani, Makarem Shirazi, and Shabiri Zanjani, and he had a bit of a tough time.

Safi Golpaygani declared that even one day's delay in releasing detainees is not acceptable in Islam. He then asserted:
If external forces interfere in the judiciary and influence the judges and they fail to follow the truth in their sentencing, the independence of the judiciary will be compromised....All sentencing and imprisonments should follow the basic laws of Islam

1805 GMT: Nowruz Visits (cont.). Mehdi Karroubi has visited the family of detained film director Jafar Panahi.

1800 GMT: Putting the Supreme Leader to a Referendum? Payvand has an even stronger interpretation of Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi's statement (see 1520 GMT) that Islamic rule is subject to the will of the people:
If the Imam were alive today and some people were to tell him that due to post-Revolution generational developments in society, the majority are probably no longer in favour of "Velayat Faghih" and we want to gauge the support of people at this time, the Imam would have agreed with a referendum.

UPDATED Iran Politics and Music Video: “Karroubi” and the Arrest of Sasi Mankan
UPDATED Iran Appeal: Japan’s Deportation of Jamal Saberi
Iran: Preventing Tehran from “Going Nuclear” (Ramazani)
The Latest from Iran (31 March): Nuclear Chatter & Political Prisoners


1745 GMT: The Nuclear Line. Still no  significant word out of China over today's meetings with Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, but Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has put out a holding statement. According to Press TV, Mottaki, speaking in Algeria, said Tehran is still ready to swap its low enriched uranium for higher enriched fuel under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).


However, Mottaki did not make clear --- at least in the Press TV report --- if "within the framework of its proposed initiatives" had to be a swap inside Iran or could be in an outside country.

1540 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. RAHANA reports that Ehsan Abdeh-Tabrizi, the son of Hossein Abdeh-Tabrizi, former secretary-general of Tehran Stock Exchange and director of the banned newspaper Sarmayeh, has been detained for the last three months with no news about his status or possible charges.

Ehsan Abdeh-Tabrizi, is a Ph.D. student in Political Science at Durham University in Britain, had returned to Iran to visit his family, but his passport was confiscated upon his arrival at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini Airport and he was arrested a few days later.

1530 GMT: Nowruz Visits (cont.). Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard have visited the family of Shiva Nazar Ahari, the journalist and human rights activist detained since December.

1520 GMT: Clerical Interventions. Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi has declared that Islam should not be installed with force and dictatorship. Today (12 Farvardin) should be a day of all Iranians and all ethnic and religious minorities.

Hojatoleslam Rasul Montajabnia, the Vice President of the reformist Etemade Melli party, says that a leadership without a majority vote cannot survive. He added that the late Ayatollah Khomeini never promoted a rulership minus the people.

1245 GMT: Discussing Iran. Since yesterday afternoon, I have been in a conversation with the readers of the Race for Iran blog over political and legal issues, from the June election to protests to the place of "rights" in the crisis. After clearing away the white noise of those who post in denunciation rather than discussion, there are some interesting exchanges with those who take the position that the Ahmadinejad Government is legitimate and should be engaged by the Obama Administration.

1120 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reporters Without Borders has issued a statement:

The lives of many journalists are now in danger. Emadoldin Baghi, Badrolssadat Mofidi, Mehdi Mahmudian and Mohammad Sadegh Kabovand are seriously ill. We call for their unconditional and definitive release. We appeal to the Iranian authorities to act so that these lives are no longer at risk. We will hold them responsible for any misfortune.

1030 GMT: Sanctions 2+2=?. So, on the one hand, Iran's top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili is in China for talks (see 0500 GMT) and, on the other, Reuters is spinning Beijing's acceptance of a path to tougher sanctions:
China has agreed to serious negotiations with Western powers about imposing new sanctions on Iran and President Hu Jintao will attend a multi-nation summit on nuclear security in Washington this month, officials said....The agreement to discuss sanctions marked a significant shift by China after months of fending off Western nations' demands for concerted pressure on Tehran.

Personally, I think it's too early to make a call on China's next steps. For the moment, it's all messages to all people, as in this from the Chinese Foreign Ministry's spokesman (paraded hopefully by Iran's state media): "On the Iranian nuclear issue, China will continue to endeavor toward a peaceful resolution."

0640 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Mohsen Hashemi, the son of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, has denied allegations that he has a villa in Switzerland.

0635 GMT: Nowruz Visits. Former Deputy Minister of Interior Mostafa Tajzadeh, still on his temporary release from Evin Prison, and his family paid a visit to former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, who was also a long-time post-election detainee, and his family.


0630 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz prints the collage of journalist Azar Mansouri, made with cardboard and toothpaste while she was detained in Evin Prison.

0615 GMT: And The Reformists Speak. The pro-Larijani Khabar Online also, for the second time in recent weeks, discussed politics with reformist Shahrbanou Amani. Amani assserted that "hardliners" should create favourable conditions for political competition, because free parties are necessary for a developed society. Amanid added that reformists should regrtoup and take advantage from the promises of the "hardliners", demanding that they be fulfilled.

0555 GMT: The Conservative Challenge. Speaking to Khabar Online, conservative activist Mojtaba Shakeri Mojtaba Shakeri has declared that "fundamentalists" have to prove they are capable of ruling Iran.

0545 GMT: The Nuclear Issue. While we await news from China, Rah-e-Sabz offers an overview of the current situation on Iran's nuclear progamme and international manoeuvres over uranium enrichment and sanctions.



0515 GMT: Media Nuclear Fever. Yet another example of a prominent newspaper losing perspective on the Iranian nuclear issue....

The Guardian of London, framing an interview with the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei, headlines, "Cautious reports on Tehran nuclear programme 'were framed to avoid war'".

Dramatic stuff. Only problem? Nowhere in the article does an El Baradei quote indicate that he altered reports for political reasons. Here's what he actually says:
We are a technical organisation totally embedded in a political setting and we have to be aware of the background and political implications of our work....

"When I was working at the agency we would literally go through 30 drafts or so of each report before it was ready, because I knew every word could be used politically and in a very subjective way. Every word was weighed to make sure that it was immune from being abused, and I always wanted to make sure that we were not overstating or understating, but rather just stating the facts....

I think the tone was set by me, that's true. But all the facts were in every report, unvarnished.

0505 GMT: The Subsidy Fight. Member of Parliament Mohammad Kosari has repeated his compromise plan to resolve the dispute between the Majlis and the President over subsidy cuts and spending. Invoking the Supreme Leader's recent remarks "asking the government to adhere to law and the Majlis to help the administration", Kosari has suggested an extra $30 billion for Ahmadinejad, the halfway point between the $20 billion authorised by the Parliament and the $40 billion sought by the President.

0500 GMT: Completing the saying, the title today is a bookend to that of 1 March, "In Like a Lion?", but it seems appropriate as we come to the end of the Nowruz holiday. We'll be watching to see if the quiet phase in Iranian politics continues or if there is a resumption of manoeuvres, amongst the opposition, the Rafsanjani camp, and conservative challengers to the Government.

For the moment, however, the nuclear issue still holds the headlines. In what looks to be a significant (and quickly-planned) trip, Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, is in China today. Take your pick of speculations on the motive: the Iranians are approaching Beijing with a request to hold off on sanctions and/or to put forth a deal for uranium enrichment, the Chinese have summoned a representative from Tehran to put out a message. No hint in Iranian state media yet of developments.
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