UPDATED Iran Analysis: And The Nuclear Sideshow Goes On...And On...And On

UPDATE 1200 GMT: The US side of this nuclear dance just gets stranger. In a clear sign of the bureaucratic in-fighting, the Pentagon has issued an official statement repudiating the Secretary of Defense's reported three-page memorandum denouncing a lack of clear US strategy. Spokesman Geoff Morrell said the Obama Adminsitration has "spent an extraordinary amount of time and effort considering and preparing for the full range of contingencies".

So who was the original mischief-maker (and from which agency) who fed the Gates story to The New York Times?

The first day of Tehran's 48-hour nuclear disarmament festival, a response to Barack Obama's Washington summit, dazzles the non-Iranian media this morning. Even the top analyst Juan Cole follows the lead, with attention to the Supreme Leader's declaration that the use of nuclear weapons is forbidden (haram) in Islamic law:

An American audience just assumes that Khamenei is just lying and they feel (with some justification) that he is simply engaged in anti-American propaganda, and so he words fall on deaf ears here. But in much of the world, Khamenei’s speech will be taken as devastating to the US position.

I'm not sure how much rhetorical devastation has taken place --- I suspect that shrewd onlookers, despite the media brouhaha, will see both the Washington and Tehran gatherings as posturing in the US-Iran political contest.

However, our old friend David Sanger at The New York Times, fueled by the US Government, has his own mini-explosion to contribute:

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has warned in a secret three-page memorandum to top White House officials that the United States does not have an effective long-range policy for dealing with Iran’s steady progress toward nuclear capability, according to government officials familiar with the document.

Several officials said the highly classified analysis, written in January to President Obama’s national security adviser, Gen. James L. Jones, came in the midst of an intensifying effort inside the Pentagon, the White House and the intelligence agencies to develop new options for Mr. Obama. They include a set of military alternatives, still under development, to be considered should diplomacy and sanctions fail to force Iran to change course.

Officials familiar with the memo’s contents would describe only portions dealing with strategy and policy, and not sections that apparently dealt with secret operations against Iran, or how to deal with Persian Gulf allies.

One senior official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the memo, described the document as “a wake-up call.” But White House officials dispute that view, insisting that for 15 months they had been conducting detailed planning for many possible outcomes regarding Iran’s nuclear program.

If Sanger took a moment's retreat from his dramatic prose, he might realise he is being given a walk-on part (see the precedent of Rosencrantz and Guildestern in W. Shakespeare's political case study Hamlet) in a bureaucratic battle over Iran policy. Gates isn't entirely happy with the State Department's diplomatic approach, so he fires off some paragraphs to the NSC to ask them to have a look at military options. Some of his staffers or allies in other departments pick up the phone to Sanger so he, as reporter, could put on some public pressure. Other officials (NSC? State Department? White House?) counter with the assurance that the US policy is being thoughtfully and carefully formulated.

Beyond this internal battle, Gates' "military alternatives", contrary to Sanger's implication in his lead paragraph, does not mean attacking Iran but strengthening the "containment" of Tehran in the region through a bolstered US presence and through the now ever-present rationale of tying the nuclear issue to "terrorism". That is not that distant from the policy being considered in other parts of the Obama Administration; the issue is one of degree --- how far to consider Iran as rival to be contained? how far to think of Tehran as a power who can be approached in discussions, to the point of pursuing a rapprochement over issues such as Iraq and Afghanistan?

Needless to say, Sanger never countenances the possibility that Iran is far from marching --- a la Khamenei's own theatrical declaration --- toward an atomic bomb. And he sprinkles in, from his unnamed Government officials, generalisations such as, "[Gates] wrote the memo after Iran had let pass a 2009 deadline set by Mr. Obama to respond to his offers of diplomatic engagement."

(Set aside Iran's media spin that it is taking the lead in diplomatic engagement to pursue disarmament. Tehran's reiterations that it wants discussions on a swap of uranium fuel --- albeit still murky as to whether that occurs inside or outside Iran --- is enough to puff away this US Government-supported article.)

Oh, well. Another 24 hours in Tehran of poses and declarations today. Then we'll be back to the rat-a-tat-tat, with no "That's All, Folks", of sanctions, sanctions, sanctions v. Iran's declarations that it stands tall in the face of Western provocation.

Afghanistan: US Overruling Afghan "Allies" for Kandahar Offensive? (Porter)

Gareth Porter writes for Inter Press Service:

The U.S. military has now officially backtracked from its earlier suggestion that it would seek the consent of local shuras, or consultative conferences with those elders, to carry out the coming military occupation of Kandahar city and nearby districts --- contradicting a pledge by Afghan President Hamid Karzai not to carry out the operation without such consent.

Afghanistan: Misunderstanding the Society, Killing the Civilians

Lt. Col. Tadd Sholtis, a spokesman for Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the commander of U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan, told IPS Tuesday that local tribal elders in Kandahar could "shape the conditions" under which the influx of foreign troops operate during the operation, but would not determine whether or where NATO troops would be deployed in and around the city.



Asked whether the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) is committed to getting local approval before introducing more troops into Kandahar and surrounding districts, the McChrystal spokesman said, "We're not talking about something as simple as a referendum."

At a Mar. 29 briefing in Kabul on plans for the Kandahar operation, however, an unnamed senior U.S. military official told reporters that one of the elements of the strategy for gaining control over the Taliban stronghold is to "shura our way to success" - referring to the Islamic concept of consultative bodies. In those conferences with local tribal elders, the officials said, "The people have to ask for the operation... We're going to have to have a situation where they invite us in."

Those statements clearly suggested the intention to get the support of local tribal elders before going ahead with the large-scale military operation scheduled to begin in June.

That is what President Karzai said to a shura of between 1,000 and 2,000 Kandahar province tribal elders Apr. 4. Karzai said NATO's Kandahar operation would not be carried out until the elders themselves were ready to support it, according to a number of press reports.

According to the report by RTA, Afghanistan's state television service, Karzai actually said, "I know you are worried about this operation," before asking their opinion. He also said that the shuras to be organised at the district level were for the purpose of "getting approval and deciding" on the operation, according to the RTA report.

And the assembled elders made it known that they didn't want the operation.

That was clearly not what McChrystal, who was sitting behind Karzai at the shura, wanted to hear.

McChrystal's Deputy Chief of Staff, Maj. Gen. William Mayville, and spokesman Sholtis both sought to minimise the damage from the incident. Mayville asserted that Karzai is "on board" on the Kandahar offensive, adding, "We would not have had this shura if he wasn't convinced this is the right stuff."

Sholtis suggested that Karzai had only "made it clear that he would involve local leaders in the decision-making process".

Sholtis acknowledged that "nobody wants a counterinsurgency fought in their backyard", but claimed that the elders who spoke at the Kandahar shura had "made it clear that Kandahar also suffers from an unwanted Taliban presence."

Sholtis also said the three elders who had expressed concerns about the operation had been supported by "probably about a third of the more than 1,000 who attended".

But published accounts of the meeting show that the elders were not calling for expelling the Taliban from the city and its environs. When Karzai asked the assembled elders whether they were "happy or unhappy for the operation to be carried out", they shouted loudly, "We are not happy," the Sunday Times of London reported.

As reported by AFP, when Karzai asked, "Are you worried?" the elders shouted back, "Yes we are!"

According to the RTA account, one elder interrupted Karzai to say, "Who are the Taliban, but my son and another's nephew? The problem is actually these people who are in power, in particular the tribal elders and those who have power in Kandahar city."

And in a revealing response, Karzai said, "Absolutely, you are right..."

Some of the elders told CNN's Atia Abawi they preferred to negotiate with the Taliban rather than confront them in a military offensive.

Read rest of article....

The Latest from Iran (17 April): Remember

1700 GMT: Taking Care of the Students. Iranian human rights activists report that from the beginning of academic year, more than 170 students at Tehran's Amir Kabir University were summoned to the Disciplinary Committee. About 40 face suspension and, so far, five others have been banned.

1645 GMT: In Case You're Wondering. In addition to the rhetoric at the opening of the Tehran conference on disarmament (see 1115 GMT) about US as "atomic criminal" who should be tossed out of the International Atomic Energy Agency, President Ahmadinejad has proposed that the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) should play a leading role in global nuclear disarmament.

1445 GMT: Labour Watch. In the run-up to May Day, Rah-e-Sabz reports on the dismissals of workers in Arak and the strike of Keshavarzi Bank employees in Tehran

1400 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Mojtaba Lotfi, a head of the information unit for the office of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, has been arrested and imprisoned again.

NEW Iran: Former Tehran Chancellor Maleki on Detention & Green Movement’s “Forgotten Children”
The Latest from Iran (16 April): Grounding the Opposition

1235 GMT: Tehran Friday Prayer in 3 Words. Apologies that, lost in the southeast US, I was unable to give you an immediate summary of Hojatoleslam Kazem Seddiqi's Friday Prayer. Here it is....

Adultery Causes Earthquakes


Or, to be precise, Seddiqi said that reducing sins were necessary for preventing the occurrence of natural disasters. And it seems that many Iranian women who do not abide by the Islamic dress code lead youth astray: “They cause the spread of adultery in society which leads to the increase in earthquakes.”

1230 GMT: Students & Soft War. Khabar Online reports on the naming of committee members in a student organisation which will fight the "soft war" of the opposition and Green Movement.

1220 GMT: Tip of the Iceberg. Beyond the Fatemi Street corruption claims, Khabar Online is featuring insider information about "Buddies of the South" (bachehaye jonub), heads and employees of oil fields who allegedly form a lobby in Parliament and Government that is so influential it can change the Minister of Oil.

The website is also pressing claims against conservative MP Habibollah Asgaroladi over alleged purchases of shares in a Chinese bank (Asgaroladi has denied the story).

1200 GMT: Corruption Watch. Follow this carefully: Jahan News has reportedly given details on "The House in Fatemi Street" insurance fraud. The newspaper links the main person charged, Jaber Alef, with First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi.

We'll need to check this, as the claim about Jahan's coverage has come to us from Peyke Iran, a strongly anti-regime website. However, it should be noted that Jahan is within the conservative establishment, linked to MP Ali Reza Zakani.

1155 GMT: Regime Failure. Visiting the family of detained student and women's rights activist Bahareh Hedayat, Mehdi Karroubi reiterated that the "project of violence" against people's demands had failed.

1135 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz has a summary of the concerns over the health of political prisoners such as journalists Emaduddin Baghi and Mehdi Mahmoudian, and labour activist Mansur Osanloo.

1130 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Fars News is pushing the claim that Iran's judiciary has issued a warrant for the arrest of Mehdi Hashemi, the son of Hashemi Rafsanjani. The website claims that Mehdi Hashemi, who is currently in London, will be taken into custody as soon as he enters Iran and that, in case he does not return, other “legal methods” of arresting him are also under discussion.

Fars has a follow-up interview today with a member of Parliament's National Security Commission.

1125 GMT: Claim of Day. Give credit to pro-Ahmadinejad member of Parliament Mahmoud Ahmadi Bighash for an attempt to link the international with Iran's internal situation.

Bighash tells Khabar Online that the reason for President Obama's recent "insolence" towards Iran is the meetings of reformist MPs with Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Mohammad Khatami, and Hashemi Rafsanjani.

1120 GMT: Azeris and the Green Movement. Frieda Afary in Tehran Bureau provides a valuable translation of a 21 February declaration by activists in Iranian Azerbaijan, "Our Standards Concerning the Democracy-Seeking Process and the Green Movement", putting forth 10 "principles and issues".

1115 GMT: Diversion Alert (see 1030 GMT). Here we go --- Agence France Presse reports:

Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in an opening message to a two-day nuclear disarmament conference hosted by Tehran, said the use of nuclear weapons was "haram", meaning religiously prohibited, and branded Washington as the world's "only atomic criminal."

Hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad went a step further and called for Washington's suspension from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) along with all other nations who possess nuclear arms.

"Only the US government has commited an atomic crime," said a message read out from the all-powerful Khamenei, who formulates Tehran's foreign policy, including its nuclear strategy.

"The world's only atomic criminal lies and presents itself as being against nuclear weapons proliferation, while it has not taken any serious measures in this regard," he said.

1100 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. On a day of remembering, some possible good news. An Iranian activists' website is reporting that two charges against journalist Isa Saharkhiz, who has been detained since soon after the June election, have been dropped.

Meanwhile, 160 journalists, bloggers, and activists have addressed the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, in an open letter calling for the immediate release of journalist and human rights activist Kaveh Kermanshahi.

1030 GMT: In a few hours, the "mainstream" view of Iran is likely to be Tehran's conference on nuclear disarmament, with Iranian state media heralding Iran's leadership for peace (and no prospect of a militarised nuclear programme) and their non-Iranian counterparts looking for signs of challenge to the "West".

So be it. We're going a different route, starting this morning with an interesting interview with Dr Mohammad Maleki, the former chancellor of Tehran University who was detained from August to March until his release on bail. After describing the conditions of his imprisonment, Maleki makes a pointed call for the leaders of the Green Movement to "remember" and put forth the cases of young people who have become political prisoners.

Maleki's words are especially pertinent as the opposition continues to reshape itself after 22 Bahman (11 February) and the attempt by the regime to remove it from existence. Iranian journalist Reza Valizadeh, who has fled the country, writes of the "dubious derision of [the Green Movement's] popular slogans", in particular, Mir Hossein Mousavi's framing of the movement within rather than outside the Islamic Republic. It is also worthwhile to read the readers' responses to the piece, such as "[This is] criticizing those who, under the most difficult conditions, are trying their best to make Iran a better nation."

There is also some sniping from reformist MP Mohammad Reza Khabbaz, who is quoted by Khabar Online as saying that Mehdi Karroubi doesn't speak on behalf of his party Etemade Melli, given that it is "out of service".

Despite the tensions and despite the regime pressure that prevented him from going to a disarmament conference in Japan, Mohammad Khatami persisted with the message on Friday. He said the "goodwill call" for ameliorations and reforms remains, i.e., protests will continue, while reiterating his concerns over the treatment of political prisoners (see yesterday's last update for further details).

Iran: Former Tehran Chancellor Maleki on Detention & Green Movement's "Forgotten Children"

Mohammad Maleki, the former chancellor of Tehran University, was detained on 22 August. Suffering from ill health, he was finally released on bail on 1 March as he awaited trial.

Maleki, imprisoned before the 1979 Islamic Revolution for five years and arrested again in 2000, spoke with Radio Zamaneh this week:

MALEKI: Yesterday, I was told by my lawyers that they have met with the judge and have obtained his consent. They had taken with them documents related to my medical condition which proved the need for my ongoing treatment. Therefore, the judge agreed to postpone the trial and said that we will be informed of the new date.


RZ: You mean, during the time you were detained, you were not informed of your charges?

MALEKI: No, I did not see the charges. I have been charged with insulting the Supreme Leader and acting against national security, but I have not seen the indictment or its contents. The lawyers and the magistrate have said these are my charges.

RZ: Mr. Maleki, you have said that you will not take part in a closed trial. Are you not worried that this will have a negative effect on the case and will result in a heavier sentence? What are the reasons for your decision?

MALEKI: Attending or not attending will not make a difference. There should come a day, when this country at least respects its own constitution. Things cannot remain the same; 30 years after the Revolution one of the most important parts of the Constitution is still not respected. The Constitution says explicitly that political charges should be tried by jury in open trials with the presence of media.

Back in 2000, when I was arrested with national-religious activists, I said that I would not take part in the trial because I considered the trial to be illegal. Therefore, I think this matter should be resolved once and for all. We either have to respect the constitution in its entirety or just keep those articles that please us and guarantee the interests of the regime. The constitution has provisions that guarantee the rights of the people and must be respected.

I won’t even mention that these rights are not respected during arrests and interrogations under the usual pretext that political crime has not been defined by the law. Why should this be my problem as the accused? Since the Revolution I have been arrested 3 times for being anti-revolutionary. Anti-revolutionaries are those who break the law which, according to their own words, is the birth child of the Revolution. Therefore, how can I attend the trial? Yesterday, a hearing was supposed to be held and yet I have no knowledge of the indictment and have not been allowed to read what has been written against me.

RZ:Mr Maleki, when you were arrested you were in a bad physical condition; you were ill throughout your detention and were hospitalized for a while. How is your condition now?

MALEKI: My physical condition is the same. During the 6 months I was there, I was not able to receive the injections I need, and suffered burning and pain as a result. Since my release I have been injected twice and the burning and pain is reduced. I feel, however, that since I have come out my psychological condition is worse than before.

RZ: Can you tell us why your emotional state is worse now compared to when you were in prison?

MALEKI: Because I keep worrying for those kids; there are so many unknown and anonymous students in prison and no one is thinking about them. No one remembers that they are the children of this country. What crime have they committed? One day this matter must be addressed. Unfortunately, not only this is not the regime’s concern, but I have scarcely seen the Green Movement friends come strongly to their defence. Make a decision about them, they have a life and studies they need to go back to; their families keep waiting for them outside Evin. These are the things that hurt me more than cancer.

RZ: Mr. Maleki, you were not active during the election. You had said you did not believe in it and therefore did not participate. Yet, your arrest was related to post-election events. What is your current view of the election?

MALEKI: As you said, I was not at all active during the election because first of all, I was sick, and secondly, I don’t believe in an election where you have to vote for a few candidates chosen by the Guardian Council. I was arrested on 22 August, so I was in prison when most of those events happened. I was in solitary confinement for the first 3 months without access to newspapers or television. Until I was taken to the general ward, I was unaware of what was happening outside prison.

When I was taken there (to the general ward), I got some information, but since my release, I have come to the realisation that all the old problems continue to exist. The insider/outsider divide remains. No one is thinking about these kids. What I noticed about the supporters of the Green or reformist movement is that their behaviour towards others has not changed a lot. They have held on to their outsider/insider culture. They welcome those who are one of their own but others remain outsiders to them.

In the one and half months since my release, I have maybe gone out 10 times, mostly to the hospital or my doctor. I have tried to have little contact and have not been interested in what is happening. Our people have not fundamentally changed during this time, we are the same people we were before. Our elite have kept their egocentric and selfish culture.

RZ: Dr Maleki, it seems like you are disappointed with the green movement leaders.

MALEKI: I am extremely disappointed. Those imprisoned kids are not getting the attention they deserve, especially the unknown students. I know many of them and saw them in prison, but there is no mention of them on websites. They have been in prison for months and some of them have been handed 4-5 year prison terms for no reason.

Sometimes they (the Green Movement or reformists) refer to them, but they never defend them strongly. The type of defence Mr. Sahabi --- God bless him --- demonstrated a few days ago, I really enjoyed. His letter tells the painful story on behalf of all of us. We have some years behind us (a reference to being old) and have suffered both before and after the revolution. We have seen the Shah’s prisons as well as those of the Islamic Republic. These kids are our children. They haven’t come from another country. They are the children of this country who had something to say and said it. Even if they shouted their words inside or outside universities, this does not warrant the treatment they have received.

The Latest from Iran (16 April): Grounding the Opposition

1910 GMT: Khatami Grounded but Still Speaks. Former President Mohammad Khatami may have been halted from leaving Iran, but he has not been silenced. Khatami has spoken out against government pressure on newly released Iranian political prisoners “to denounce their connections with certain movements and public figures”.

Khatami claimed that the newly released prisoners “are being forced to make public confessions against their actual opinions and beliefs and they have been told that their limited freedom will be taken away from them if they do not do so".

1830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. A court of appeal has confirmed a six-year prison sentence for journalist Masoud Lavasani as well as a ten-year ban on any journalism. Lavasani was originally sentenced to eight years after his detention in late September.

Mohammad Reza Lotfi Yazdi, a Mashhad student activist, has been released from Evin Prison after a six-week detention. Ali Sepandar and Behzad Parvin, two members of the Central Council of the Islamic Association at Birjand University, have also been freed.

Iran: A View From Tehran “The New Year Challenges”
Iran: A Note About the Voice of America, NIAC, and the “Journalism” of The Washington Times
The Latest from Iran (15 April): Accepting Authority?

1825 GMT: The Labour Front. Back from an extended break to find a useful summary by Iran Labor Report of developments, including economic downturns, protests over unpaid wages, and strikes.


1145 GMT: The Banning of the Reformists? We are watching this story carefully to see if it develops into the effective suspension of "legal" political activity by reformists in Iran:

The members of Article 10 Commission of Iran which monitors the activities of political parties in the country held a session yesterday asking the Judiciary to ban two reformist parties, Islamic Iran Participation Front (Party) and Mojahedin of the Islamic Revolution Organization.

They also submitted a letter to Tehran's Public Prosecutor's Office and requested for issuing a decree on the dissolution of both pro-reform parties. The decision was made through observing their background and actions taken by them.

1155 GMT: Recognising Activism and New Media. Iranian blogger, journalist, and women’s rights activist Jila Bani Yaghoub has been awarded the Reporters Without Borders Freedom of Expression prize for her blog “We are Journalists” at the 6th international “Best of the Blogs” event in Berlin.

Bani Yaghoub and her husband Bahman Ahmadi Amoui were detained last year during the post-election crisis. After her release, she wrote a moving open letter to her still-detained spouse and "Mr Interrogator".

1110 GMT: A Discussion. Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the late Ayatollah Khomeini, has met Grand Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i to consider "the problems of the country".

1055 GMT: Not Forgetting. Golnaz Esfandiari summarises the attempts by Iranian websites and bloggers to ensure that the cases and situations of "lesser-known" political prisoners are not forgotten.

1045 GMT: Corruption Watch. Rah-e-Sabz claims that the Supreme Leader has intervened to order a halt to the corruption investigation of First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi. Several high-profile members of Parliament have led the call for the inquiry against Rahimi, connected with the "Fatemi Avenue" insurance fraud.

1040 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The Green Voice of Freedom claims it has a letter from a group of detainees in Evin Prison, announcing their plan to fast from 21 April until the anniversary of the election on 12 June. They make five demands: annulment of post-election sentences for political prisoners; release of all detainees on bail until trials are held; respect of Article 168 of the Constitution regarding political and press offences; investigation into illegal and unjust judicial procedures and interrogations at all levels; improving recreation, health and hygiene in all prisons and detention centres in the country.

The letter to the “Great Iranian Nation” states:

You know better than anyone, that thousands of your children who supported reformist candidates during the June 2009 presidential election and [identified with] the Green Movement were arrested at their workplaces or homes --- even in the middle of the night --- and taken to known and unknown detention centres and prisons on baseless grounds and accusations that mostly lacked (and still lack) legal justification. [Their imprisonment] clearly went against the constitution and the country’s current laws and citizen rights.

1035 GMT: The Court in Evin Prison. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran has called for the closure of a recently-established “special court” at Evin Prison.

Attorneys for detainees say their work has become "impossible” with the newly established court. One of them, Nasrin Sotoudeh, summarises:

The judges are residing in a space that is under the strict control of the Ministry of Intelligence and during preliminary investigations, which are the most difficult time during a suspect’s prison term, case judges only receive information from intelligence officers, and neither the suspect’s lawyer nor his or her family can provide any information to the judges.

Another defense attorney, Farideh Gheyrat, said she is highly concerned about the inaccessibility of her clients’ files and claims that now even extracting the old “simple and incomplete” pieces of information about cases has become impossible.

1030 GMT: Labour Watch. A Street Journalist provides an English summary of a Deutsche Welle story, reported in EA earlier this week, of workers' protests and strikes in Khuzestan in southwest Iran.

1020 GMT: Economy Watch. As a sign of Iran's economic troubles, Rah-e-Sabz reports a sharp decline in employment in the town Asalouyeh in the south of the country. State companies have not paid wages for several months, and the Government owes owes 40 billion toman (more than $40 million) to private companies, for example in the electricity sector.

The website also reports that Iran's social security organisation is in deep trouble with a large deficit building from 2007. It claims that the head of the organisation has gone to Qom to seek help from clerics.

1015 GMT: A Subsidy Compromise? Khabar Online reports that the Parliament and Government have reached an agreement allowing President Ahmadinejad to take in and control more revenue from subsidy cuts.

Parliament had set the extra revenue at $20 million, half of the President's demand, but according to Khabar, "this week the Parliament gave a free hand to the government in arranging a schedule for implementing the plan, to define new prices for subsidized goods and above all adding tax incomes to the 200 trillion rials ($20 billion) budget".

EA's sharp readers will already note the double-edged sword for the Government if this compromise has been struck: it may indeed take in more money but only by raising prices --- through the subsidy reductions --- further on basic provisions such as food and energy.

1000 GMT: Clerical Intervention. Ayatollah Javadi Amoli has taken a swipe at the Government with the declaration that society must be governed with respect and fed so it can stand on its own feet. It is not difficult to govern with mercy.

Ayatollah Jafar Sobhani has added that the majority must be kept satisfied. If the Iranian people have reasonable demands, they should be addressed.

0950 GMT: And Take This, Opposition. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati has issued a forceful denunciation of those challenging the regime. He claimed that they wanted to weaken the system of velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority) after the Ahmadinejad victory last night. The culprits included monarchists, Baha'i, reformist parties such as Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution and Islamic Iran Participation Front, National Front, communists, and secularists. (An EA reader wonders, "Is there anyone left who is not an opponent?")

0930 GMT: We return from extended break to follow up on yesterday's report that former President Mohammad Khatami was planning to attend a global disarmament conference in Japan next week.

EA readers quickly wrote us that the Iranian authorities intervened to prevent the journey. Parleman News wrote that Khatami, who was supposed to leave the country on Wednesday night, was not blocked at the airport or had his passport has not been withdrawn, but he succumbed to pressure and cancelled the trip at his own initiative.

Khatami remains a major international figure for his approach of "global dialogue", which he promoted in the late 1990s as an alternative to the notion of a clash of civilizations. More immediately, his presence in Japan would have deflected from Iran's own attempts to take the nuclear high ground with its own conference on nuclear disarmament, scheduled for Saturday and Saturday.