Containing Conflict: Update on Israel, Turkey, and Gaza

In his daily updates, Scott Lucas referred to an "escalation" of the political tensions between Israel and Turkey after the comments of Israeli Major General Avi Mizrahi questioning Turkey's Kurdish, Armenian and Cyprus policies. For me, however, the significance is that, after the Turkish Military`s General Staff warned that Mizrahi's statements could harm the relations between Turkey and Israel, the Israeli army disowned Mizrahi's statements. According to the Israeli Defense Forces, Mizrahi`s remarks did not reflect the official views of the army.

The episode shows again that, despite political conflict and individual statements such as Mizrahi's, Israeli and Turkish armies do not have the luxury of tolerating any interference that can harm the special relationship between their institutions.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (15 February)

Afternoon Update (4:15 p.m.): Israeli officials say Prime Minister Ehud Olmert (pictured) told Cabinet colleagues on Sunday that kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit must "come home" before there is any opening of border crossings, a central demand by Hamas for an Israel-Gaza ceasefire.

Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, the leader of the Kadima Party, has ruled out a coaliation government with Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party, which finished a narrow second in last Tuesday's election. Livni wrote in private note to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, captured by television cameras, ""I have no intention of being in a unity government headed by Bibi [Netanyahu] --- and don't hint that."

Meanwhile, a clear sign that the Palestinian Authority is in trouble as it tries to maintain some position in Gaza. PA leader Salam Fayyad says that salaries of the Authority's employees in the area are not being paid so the money can be used for aid projects. The PA has been hindered by Israel's restriction on the movement of cash into Gaza, and its workers have now declared a strike.
Morning Update (6 a.m. GMT; 8 a.m. Israel/Palestine): The political tensions between Israel and Turkey, which we have followed closely in recent weeks, escalated yesterday after an Israeli general told an international conference that Turkey should "look in the mirror" after its criticism of Israeli action in Gaza. General Mizrahi pointed to Ankara's treatment of its Kurdish minority and the Turkish occupation of northern Cyprus.

Although the Israeli Defense Forces reprimanded Avi Mizrahi (pictured) for his remarks, the Turkish Foreign Ministry requested "an urgent explanation" from the Israeli Ambassador.

What Israel Lost in Gaza: Talks with Syria, A Relationship with Turkey?

To my knowledge, this story from Ha'aretz on Friday has received little notice outside Israel:

Israel and Syria were about to announce that they would speak directly a week before the fighting in Gaza broke out, a Turkish official said. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan had spoken with Syrian President Bashar Assad (pictured) during Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's visit to Ankara, and had mediated in crafting a joint statement.

But a few days later, while still awaiting Olmert's approval for the statement, Israel launched Operation Cast Lead in Gaza and Erdogan felt betrayed.

Now it could well be that Turkey is playing up the story to cover Erdogan's very public denunciation of Israeli actions. And it may be the case that, after making political calculations, Damascus will decide that the benefits of coming back to the negotiating table with Israel outweigh or even balance its backing of Hamas. As my colleague Ali Yenidunya has argued, there may be no long-term cost to the Israeli-Turkish alliance.

For the moment, however, let's note that the Israeli Government was so driven to take action in Gaza that it was willing to risk a peace process to ease tensions on its northern border and a strategic relationship with Ankara. It will be some time before we know what motives lay behind this gamble --- regime change? a strike at Hamas as a strike against Tehran? a grand scheme in collusion with the Palestinian Authority, Egypt, and, possibly, Saudi Arabia? Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's attempt to wipe away the stain of Lebanon 2006?

It is almost definite, however, that given the stakes involved, Operation Cast Lead was never just a response to rocket fire.B

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (14 February)

2:15 p.m. Finally, some confirmation on the state of the Israel-Gaza negotiations, albeit not a very positive development. Tel Aviv says it will not accept any proposal unless it is linked to the release of kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit (pictured).

Morning Update (7:45 a.m. GMT; 9:45 a.m. Israel/Palestine): No overnight news on the possibility of an Israel-Gaza cease-fire agreement. Hamas' public promotion of a likely deal is not being matched by Tel Aviv, although there is a type of negotiation going on through the leaks of details, often conflicting, of an arrangement.

Meanwhile, Israel is maintaining its pattern of periodic strikes to show a tough line in response to any rocket and mortar fire. Several people were injured in Israeli airstrikes late on Friday. Either in respone to the strikes or to cover the diplomatic obstacles to an agreement, Hamas political director Khaled Meshaal said the Israeli action had caused a "hitch" in discussions.

Anticipating the New Israeli Government: Netanyahu or Livni?

According to the Associated Press, the Obama Administration has praised the Israeli elections and has called the voting by millions of Israelis the sign of a strong democracy. The White House spokesman Robert Gibbs stated that the President Obama was excited to work with the new Israeli government, and on Wednesday, Obama called Israeli President Shimon Peres to express his gratitude for American and Israeli model democracies and to emphasise his personal efforts for a two-state Israel-Palestine solution.

The question is how much room there is for such a solution. While relatively moderate Tzipi Livni, the leader of the Kadima Party is ready to pursue peace talks with the Abbas Government, Benjamin Netanyahu, the leader of Likud, considers the US-backed negotiation process as a waste of time.

Meanwhile, Livni has demonstrated her "hawkish" reflexes in the name of "Israeli interests" during Operation Cast Lead in Gaza. This was reminiscent of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's 2006 Lebanon War when there were serious questions in Israelis' minds whether the inexperienced Olmert was able to handle the weight of the Israeli politics after his predecessor Ariel Sharon's illness. The only difference is that Olmert had to prove himself after Sharon was no longer able to be the Prime Minister, while Livni had to sharpen her position against Hamas, "the common enemy" of all Israelis, to increase Kadima`s votes. Waging war against Hamas while giving priority to the peace process with Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas --- including giving up land, dismantling settlements in West Bank, and sharing Jerusalem --- indicate the balance of her expected policies. Livni`s position is closer to peace when compared to that of Netanyahu, but the Iron Lady offers no concession on the most sensitive notion of the Israeli society: "security".

For Netanyahu, as we see in his election motto (“Likud: Because the state needs to be run”), Kadima has been incompetent in its rule, including its conduct of the Lebanon War and the most recent Gaza War. Netanyahu has criticized the government for being insufficiently strong against Hezbollah and Hamas in these two wars and insisted on the continuation of Operation Cast Lead. Netanyahu`s "security pack", which includes toppling Hamas in Gaza, keeping the Golan Heights, and expanding current settlements in the West Bank, is much more important than giving priority to the peace process.

It is clear that a peace agreement is unlikely to come under an Netanyahu administration, but his agenda is wide enough to keep peace proponents busy, at least in the mid-term. What is missing in this analysis, however, are the Obama Administration`s regional policies the application of these to Israel and its new Gvoernment, as it seeks a "secure" Israeli society and/or "strong" steps for peace.