Today's Obamameter: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (1 February)

Latest Post: Obama, Drugs Policy, and AIDS Prevention

Current Obamameter: Good (Early Sunshine Obscured by Gathering Clouds, Improving by Super Bowl)

10:10 p.m. GMT: President Obama gave a high-profile few minutes to NBC before tonight's American football Super Bowl. Interviewer Matt Lauer decided to get a bit serious, after asking Obama for his Super Bowl prediction (the President diplomatically said the Pittsburgh Steelers in a close, hard-fought game), on issues like the economic stimulus package. On Iraq, Obama said there would be "substantial" troop reductions by the time of next year's game.



5:10 p.m. GMT: Optimism over yesterday's Iraqi elections is now being tempered a bit. The turnout is now estimated at 51 percent, lower than the 59 percent for the January 2005 national elections and 76 percent for the November 2005 Parliamentary elections. Voters were deterred or hindered by tight security and registration problems.

5 p.m. GMT: In the latest clash in the Swat Valley in Pakistan, at least 43 civilians were killed in "cross-fire" between insurgents and Government forces, according to a Pakistani military official.

The confidential admissions verifies the reports of local residents. Earlier, Government forces claim they have killed 16 insurgents.

4:30 p.m. GMT: The Karzai Government in Afghanistan has struck back at Western criticism of "corruption", claiming that 80 percent of Afghan aid is in the hands of international organisations. Foreign Minister Rangeen Dadfar Spanta said:

When we have received 20 percent of the foreign aid, then it is better to be asked about that. The problem is that we are asked about the whole of the 100 percent, while we are unaware of the 80 percent.

Spanta linked the issue of corruption to that of the Government's relationship with foreign donors: ""What we need is better coordination, what we need is promoting the government's efficiency, what we need is good governance ... and a campaign against corruption on part of the government and the international community."

1 p.m. GMT: Three civilians, including two children, have died in Afghanistan in two separate incidents involving international forces.

10:45 a.m. GMT: According to early unofficial estimates, about 60 percent of Iraqis voted in yesterday's elections. Electoral commission officials say that the State of Law Coalition, the list backed by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, are leading the polls in Maliki's strongholds of Najaf, Diwaniyah, Wasit, and Babil.

9:05 a.m GMT: The Observer of London reports that Binyam Mohamed, a British resident held at Guantanamo Bay for seven years, is close to death after a hunger strike that began on 5 January.

9 a.m. GMT: A suicide bomber in Afghanistan attacked a convoy of foreign troops this morning, wounded two civilians and a French soldier.

8 a.m. GMT: It will be some time before we have returns from Iraq's elections. Meanwhile, Juan Cole has an excellent summary and analysis of the vote.

Morning Update (7 a.m. GMT; 2 a.m. Washington): The sunshine comes from Iraq, where elections in 14 of 18 provinces were conducted peacefully and the civilian death toll in January was the lowest monthly figure since 2003.

The mist is in Afghanistan, with Kabul and US authorities floating a plan to arm special Afghan security forces to go into the countryside. The possible complications are highlighted in an MSNBC story of villagers' anger at civilian deaths from "special operations". Three US raids in recent weeks have killed up to 50 bystanders.


And the high clouds are from a so-far little-noticed story of how the Obama Administration, despite the acclaim for its more moderate position to international social issues, could be damaging the fight against AIDS (more on this in a separate post).

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (1 February)

Latest Post: "Israel Needs to Invade the Hague"

10:55 p.m. A total of six Israeli airstrikes, one on a Hamas police headquarters and five on tunnels, now reported.

9:30 p.m. Reuters now reports three Israeli airstrikes, one in central Gaza and two on tunnels near Rafah.

9:04 p.m. Israeli aircraft have attacked a target, reported a Hamas security headquarters, in the central Gaza strip. No casualties reported. Witnesses say the area was evacuated after Israeli forces telephoned warnings.

8:55 p.m. Reuters has further detail and analysis of the visit of a Hamas delegation, including political director Khaled Meshaal, to Iran (see 5 p.m.). CNN is reporting the praise of Meshaal for Tehran's support.

7:42 p.m. Tomorrow's discussions in Cairo, with Egypt moving between Hamas and Palestinian Authority/Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas, could be interesting but far from productive. Hamas is talking up the idea of a 12-month cease-fire proposal to be presented to Tel Aviv; indeed, a spokesman for Gaza prime Minister Ismail Haniya has indicated that the plan has already been submitted to Israel for its response: events are "moving in a positive direction".

Hamas' initiative can be read not only as a manoeuvre with the Israelis but also an attempt to assert leadership of the Palestinian movement. That is why Abbas, rather than emphasise the cease-fire proposal, responded today with an attack on Hamas. Talks were impossible with them, he said, because they had rejected the Palestinian Liberation Organization: "They... have taken risks with the blood of Palestinians, with their fate, and dreams and aspirations for an independent Palestinian
state."



7:40 p.m. GMT: A series of mortars --- 10 according to the BBC --- have landed in southern Israel, along with the rockets we reported earlier today.

7:30 p.m. GMT: Some more details on the Iran front, this time with attention to the evolving Turkish-Iranian relationship. Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani called Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and thanked him on behalf of Iran’s people and Parliament. The former Speaker of the Parliament Gulan Ali Haddad Adil also thanked Erdogan in the Parliament and ended his speech with “long live Erdogan” in Turkish.

Ayatollah Nasir Mekarim Sirazi stated that PM Erdogan prevented a new war and contributed to the peace process: “If the ones who are responsible from Nobel Prize have fairness and courage, they will give it to Erdogan.” He added that Erdogan’s stance gave power and morale to the Palestinian resistance. (entry by Ali Yenidunya)

5 p.m. GMT: This will put the cat amongst the pigeons, both in diplomacy and in public reactions. Hamas political director Khaled Meshaal has met Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini in Tehran, giving a detailed account of "victory" over Israel in the Gaza conflict. Meshaal saw Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad later in the day.

2:20 p.m. GMT: We've covered the Israeli battle with Turkey, or at least Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for the dominant position on the Israel-Palestine issue.

The contest continues today, with Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni pushing Ankara to take a tough stance on both Hamas and Iran: "Despite the street demonstrations, despite the difficult images from Gaza ... Hamas is everyone's problem. And most countries in the region, in the Middle East, have understood this more than the Turks." Other countries should "understand that Iran is everyone's problem".

1:05 p.m. GMT: Al Arabiya reports, from Palestinian sources, that Hamas will agree to a one-year cease-fire on Monday, when a delegation visits Cairo. According to the sources, "Palestinian Authority forces [would} manage the crossing,...the Hamas Government would be able to send inspectors there and the two sides would cooperate and coordinate their activities".

The opening of the crossings would not be linked to the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, held in Gaza since 2006, although his case would be mentioned in the announcement.

10:40 a.m. GMT: Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has vowed a "disproportionate response" after four rockets were fired into southern Israel this morning.

10 a.m. GMT: Peter Beaumont in The Observer:

Gaza's 1.5 million people are facing a food crisis as a result of the destruction of great areas of farmland during the Israeli invasion.

According to the World Food Programme, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation and Palestinian officials, between 35% and 60% of the agriculture industry has been wrecked by the three-week Israeli attack, which followed two years of economic siege.

8 a.m. GMT: Three Qassam rockets have landed in the western Negev in Israel this morning.

Morning Update (7:25 a.m. GMT; 9:25 a.m. Israel/Palestine): The tour of US envoy George Mitchell continues, relatively quietly. He was in Jordan on Saturday and arrived in Saudi Arabia late last night, where he met Foreign Prince Saud al-Faisal and will speak with King Abdullah.Yesterday Abdullah called for Palestinian unity, “The competition between them is a big mistake. It will do them more harm than that done by Zionism. I appeal to them again to stand united in order to strengthen their cause."

No significant signs so far of what Mitchell will take back to Washington, although it is clear that Washington needs --- both for the Israel-Palestine process and for wider regional issues --- to establish a secure footing with the Saudis.

Papers in the Arab world are buzzing with the story, after Syrian leader Bashir al-Assad's meetings with US delegations this week, that Damascus wants "better ties" with Washington.

Some Global Facts on Water and Poverty for Your Kind Consideration

The Labor-Work Syndicate in Turkey, supported by United Nations and World Bank statistics, has issued the following report on global water resources:

• Consumption of water has doubled the birth rate since the last century;


• The amount of usable water per person diminished by one-third between 1970 and 1990 (the same decrease is expected during 2000-2020);

• Under the worst scenario, seven billion people in 60 countries, out of a global population of 9.3 billion, will face water shortages in 2050;


• The consumption of water doubled in the last 50 years.


• A child born in a developed country consumes 30-50 times more than a child born in a developing country;


• 6,000 people, most of them are below the age of 5, die each from diarrhea as a result of drinking dirty water;


• 40 percent of the world does not have usable water;


• One-third of drinkable water in developed countries is used in toilet;


• An Israeli has access to six times more water than a Palestinian has;


• More than one in six people worldwide, 894 million, do not have access to this amount of safe freshwater.


• Today 2.5 billion people, including almost one billion children, live without even basic sanitation.

Do you also know that the annual military expenditure around in the world is is $1 to $1.35 trillion dollars and only one-quarter of this amount could solve water and waste problems?

All Talk, No Clean Needles? The Obama Administration, Drugs Policy, and AIDS Prevention

Much praise has been given, quite rightly, to President Obama's new tone on US co-operation in international health and social programmes, such as his revocation of Ronald Reagan's "gag order" on American organisations assisting with health and family planning efforts.

Yet, whatever the good intentions, the Obama Administration already faces a serious test within its own ranks. State Department officials at a United Nations drugs conference in Vienna have been blocking any reference to "harm reduction" because the phrase might refer to proposals for the exchange of used needles and syringes. The proposals are supported by most delegations at the conference, including the European Union.



The White House website sets out Obama's position as "lifting the federal ban on needle exchange, which could dramatically reduce rates of infection among drug users." There has been no move, however, to change the current policy, and the State Department's officials are studiously adhering to it. The situation is further complicated because the State Department's global AIDS coordinator, Dr Mark Dybul, was forced to resign on 22 January, as he was a Bush appointee, and no replacement has been named.

A draft version of the UN declaration, dated 15 January, included language to "develop, review and strengthen" drug-treatment programs to include "harm reduction measures aiming at preventing and reducing the adverse health, social and economic consequences of drug use and dependence". The US, joined by Russia, Japan, and Colombia, insisted the language be removed. The clause was moved into a footnote but that was also rejected by the US.

The matter is urgent because the draft is to be ratified by the UN General Assembly Special Session on Drugs on 12-13 March.

There has been some public movement in the US on the issue. On Wednesday, three members of Congress asked Susan Rice, the US Ambassador to the UN, to act, and The New York Times had an editorial on Saturday calling for quick action by Obama. The story, however, has had little circulation in other media.

Enduring America in The Irish Times: Obama's Policies

The Irish Times has a nice summary of Thursday's discussion, organised by our partner The Clinton Institute for American Studies, on "Change in Washington". While the article leads with the hope of "the bad boyfriend factor" --- if your last boyfriend, let's say a Mr G W Bush, was horrible, then your next one is going to seem wonderful for a while --- it also offers the more cautious remarks of Enduring America's Scott Lucas as "a salutary study in realism".