Iran Follow-Up: Interpreting the Assembly of Experts "The Certainty of the Uncertain"

Mr Verde follows up our analysis of the "mystery" of the Assembly of Experts statement/non-statement supporting the Supreme Leader and declaring that time has run out for a seditious opposition.



For the latest on the continuing politics, see our analysis of the Supreme Leader's "big push" and our latest updates:

The Assembly of Experts has been holding twice a yearly for many years. Most of its meetings are behind closed doors. The official reports of the meetings usually included a few set-piece and rather predictable speeches. And they were ignored by most people.

Iran Analysis: Khamenei's Not-So-Big Push
Iran Analysis: The Assembly of Experts Mystery

The only notable “news” about the Assembly meetings in recent years was the 2007 election to replace the deceased Ali Meshkini as chair. Until then only one candidate stood in the election and was elected unanimously to show unity. This time, however, there were two candidates: Rafsanjani and Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati.


Most people expected Jannati to win because Jannati heads the Guardian Council, which has to approve members of the Assembly. Rafsanjani had lost the second round of the 2005 presidential election to Ahmadinejad. Yet Rafsanjani beat Jannati. And then people again forgot about the Assembly and its sessions.

This was until the June 2009 presidential elections.

Soon after the disputed elections, a statement was released by the secretariat of the Assembly declaring that the members not only supported the Supreme Leader but they also supported the results. It later transpired that the statement was signed only by Mohammad Yazdi, a strong Ahmadinejad backer, a Guardian Council member close to Jannati, and the secretary of the Assembly. It was in effect Mohammad Yazdi’s opinion printed on Assembly letterhead.

Some of those hoping that the Islamic Republic would find a way out of the post-election crisis looked to the autumn session of the Assembly for a solution. They were disappointed, but this time they took note of the limited news of the Assembly’s proceedings. Mohammad Yazdi did not attend the meetings of that session, and citing his illness, he resigned as secretary of the Assembly. His resignation was rejected by Rafsanjani, who wished him a speedy recovery and return to his duties (a few days later Yazdi was pictured attending another event, which may point to illness being used as an excuse).

During the session some members criticised the actions of the regime and, by implication, the Supreme Leader. They were and still are attacked by the radical right for their stance.

Then during the final meeting, a strongly worded statement was read out on behalf of the Assembly by Ahmad Khatami, a hardline cleric and fervent supporter of Ahmadinejad. It was reported that Rafsanjani was not present during that part of the meeting and, later, that he had received a call from Khamenei asking him to attend a meeting with the Supreme Leader immediately. No news was ever published about the subject of this meeting was about and why it was it so urgent that Rafsanjani had to leave in the middle of the Assembly.

The struggle between Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad supporters continued after the autumn session. At one point Rafsanjani was criticised, indeed threatened, by Yazdi. For the first time in the post-election crisis, Rafsanjani responded directly to an attack and said that he would reveal facts about Yazdi’s past actions. This lead to Yazdi calling a truce.

This week, Ahmadinejad supporters were hoping to create an atmosphere in which they could force Rafsanjani out as the head of the Assembly. The Yazdi attacks were accompanied by castigations of Rafsanjani’s family and political associates.

It seems that the plan to remove Rafsanjani has not worked, but there were no reports of speeches by critics of the current situation either. Instead, there were anomalies putting a question mark over the legitimacy of the meeting. Again Yazdi was absent because of "illness"; instead his son, who has no legal right to attend, was present.

Rafsanjani made a point of announcing the attendance of the younger Yazdi, raising speculation. Was the head of the Assembly effectively declaring that the body's status had been compromised? Was this a personal response to Yazdi, implying that he is so used to illegal actions that he would dare send his son to represent him? Or was Rafsanjani trying to protect the legitimacy of the gathering by citing "special circumstances"?

Yet the meeting was further damaged, at least in its official standing, by the absence of key members. Ayatollah Ebrahim Amini was either too ill or staged a personal boycott. (Amini, although a "conservative", stepped down as Friday Prayer leader of Qom because of his dissatisfaction with post-election events.) Rafsanjani ally Hassan Rohani was missing, as was Ayatollah Mahdavi-Kani, who had reportedly worked with Rafsanjani and others last autumn to forge a National Unity Plan. Perhaps most surprisingly, Mesbah Yazdi, a hardline cleric reported to be Ahmadinejad’s religious mentor, was also a no-show.

So instead of ending in resolution, this week's meeting merely adds more puzzles and complications. The regime was trying to demontration both its unity after the events of 22 Bahman and its power, amidst symbolic developments like the launching of the Jamaran warship and the arrest of Jundullah leader Abdolmalek Rigi. It wanted to present the image to the Iranian people that all is back to normal. Meeting Assembly members yesterday, the Supreme Leader tried to drive home the impression, emphasising that those who continued to question the June election were no longer acceptable in the Iranian system.

Rafsanjani served the regime to an extent by warning all to be careful that the arrows of criticism are not turned towards the Supreme Leader. Yet he later said, in a statement he repeated yesterday at Ayatollah Khomeini's mausoleum, that some officials are not taking responsibility for their own actions and are instead trying to push the blame onto Khamenei. (At one stage he said that we need to be careful that the crisis does not escalate further, using the word “toghyan”, which can be translated into English as insurrection or insurgency or uprising.)

So, just as the Assembly was far from "normal" with the absences and the continuing political manoeuvres within its ranks, the Islamic Republic is far from settled. In one moment, the call is "all is well". In the next, it is that "all should be well" with the threats against the opposition. And then, finally, with a wink and a nod, Hashemi Rafsanjani says "all might not be well" because of "uninformed individuals" (who are they?).

This is the certainty of the uncertain.

Middle East Inside Line: Syria-Iran Meeting, Australia Warning to Israel

Iran-Syria Summit: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in his two-day visit, met with Syrian President Bashar Assad (see also our Iran updates).

Ahmadinejad said that Arab nations will usher in a new Middle East without Zionists and without colonialists. He added:

If the Zionist regime wants to repeat its past mistakes, this will constitute its demise and annihilation.

(The Americans) want to dominate the region but they feel Iran and Syria are preventing that. We tell them that instead of interfering in the region's affairs, to pack their things and leave.

Assad's response to Washington's stance toward Iran was to denounce a "new situation of colonialism in the region."

In Israel, President Shimon Peres was critical of Assad:

A peace deal with Syria could have been signed 30 years ago, as was done with Egypt. It was not us who delayed a deal, it was the Syrians. Syria believed that time would stand by its side.

The time has come to say the truth. The problem in the Middle East is not the Palestinian problem, the Palestinian problem will be solved in the framework of the peace process with Israel. The central problem in the Middle East is Iran's effort to control it. The central problem in the Middle East is the insanity of Ahmadinejad.

Assad needs to decide to go with Iran on an axis of evil and terror or to make peace with Israel.

Australia Warning to Israeli over Dubai Assassination: Australia's Foreign Minister Stephen Smith responded harshly to the alleged use of three forged Australian passports in the assassination of a Hamas leader in Dubai:

I made it crystal clear to the ambassador that if the results of that investigation cause us to come to the conclusion that the abuse of Australian passports was in any way sponsored or condoned by Israeli officials, then Australia would not regard that as an act of a friend.

Iran Document: The Ministry of Intelligence's Intimidating Phone Call

Radio Farda posts an example of the surveillance and intimidation of the Iranian population. A man who called Radio Farda's voicemail service to report that SMS texting was not working on 11 February (22 Bahman), was contacted a week later from a man claiming to be from the Isfahan offices of Iran's Ministry of Intelligence:

MINISTRY OF INTELLIGENCE: How are you?
KEYVAN: Thanks.
-- Is Ms. ******** the owner of the phone line?
-- Yes.
-- How are you?
-- Thanks.
-- So the phone line is hers, yes?
-- Why are you asking? Yes.
-- Are you Keyvan?
-- Yes, I am Keyvan.

-- How are you?
-- Thanks.
-- I'm calling you from the local office of the Ministry of Intelligence. OK?
-- OK.
-- Are you listening?
-- Yes.
-- OK, write down our address and my phone number.
-- OK.
-- Isfahan... Bozorgmehr Street... after it intersects with Golzar... local office of the Ministry of Intelligence.
-- And then what?
-- Did you write that down?
-- Yes.
-- Now write down my phone number... 222-43-18... My name is Sohrabi.
-- OK, Brigadier General Sohrabi, yes?
-- Yes. Be there before three o'clock, I have something to tell you.
-- What do you want to say?
-- Come there, we'll talk. And if you don't come, I'll come to your door and bring you here.
-- OK, thank you.
-- Listen! If you don't show up, I'll come to your door and handcuff you. I'm warning you.
-- OK, I've recorded everything that you've said just now and I'll post it on the Internet.
-- You can send it wherever you want.
-- OK.
-- If you don't show up, I swear to God that I'll scalp you.
-- OK.
-- And I want you to post my words [on the Internet]. I have more to say... If you don't show up before three, I'll scalp you.
-- OK, thank you.
-- Don't forget. At three, I'll be waiting.
-- I'm in Mobarakeh, Sir.
-- Wherever you are. I don't care.
-- Behave yourself. I'm in Mobarakeh and I can't be there before three [o'clock]... I'll come in the next few days.
-- Listen! Wherever you are...
-- I called [Radio Farda] and said the SMS system wasn't working. Did I lie?
-- Listen! I have your address. If you don't show up, then I'll come and handcuff you and then you'll be ashamed in front of the neighbors. I want to talk to you.
-- I won't be ashamed, you'll be ashamed.
-- OK, we want to be ashamed.
-- OK, so do it.
-- When will you come?
-- I'll come on a working day [not on a weekend].
-- When?
-- Today I can't come. I have guests.
-- When will you come?
-- What day is today?
-- Today is Thursday.
-- I'll come on Sunday.
-- Sunday at what time?
-- I don't know. Sunday morning.
-- What time? I want to give you a chance. So later you don't say that we didn't inform you or ask you to come by yourself. I'm giving you a chance.
-- Are you giving me a chance?
-- Yes. I want you to record my voice and send it there [abroad].
-- Sure I will.
-- Do it for sure.
-- OK.
-- When will you come?
-- I told you, on Sunday.
-- Sunday at what time?
-- I'll come whenever I want to, not the time that you are telling me. I'll come on Sunday.
-- OK, if tonight you don't show up, then I know what to do.
-- I'll come on Sunday.
-- If you don't come tonight, I'll arrest you tonight.
-- You can take me even to Evin prison. What can be worse than that?
-- If you don't show up tonight, then I'll show you what can be worse. Bye.
-- Bye.

Middle East Inside Line: Dubai Assassination, Hamas Spy Scandal, Barak with UN

The Dubai Assassination: On Monday, Dubai officials announced they had new suspects in the assassination of Hamas leader Mahmoud al-Mabhouh. Following the announcement, Australia's Government called the Israeli ambassador to receive further information: three of the 15 suspects held Australian passports.

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said:

We will not be silent on this matter. It is a matter of deep concern. It really goes to the integrity and fabric of the use of state documents, which passports are, for other purposes.

Israel-Palestine: Life in Gaza “Like Walking on Broken Glass”
Israel Interview: Netanyahu on Israeli Culture and Security (22 February)
Middle East Inside Line: Sarkozy on Palestine State, Barak in US for Iran Talks, Son of Hamas Founder Spied for Israel

The Son of Hamas Spy Scandal: The Haaretz article alleging that Mosab Hassan Yousef, the son of Hamas founder Sheikh Hassan Yousef, was a long-time Israeli spy continues to provoke. Hamas parliament member Mushir a-Masri said that the story was not worthy of a response and called it Zionist propaganda.


Israel's Barak with UN on Middle East Issues: On Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak met with United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to discuss alleged Iranian and Syrian arms shipments to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Iranian nuclear issue, the situation in Gaza, and the Goldstone Report on the 2008/09 Gaza War.

Barak said that Hezbollah's 40,000 missiles serve only to harm Israeli civilians. On Iran, the Israeli minister insisted, "Nuclear weapons in Iran will change the strategic balance in the region. We must impose harsh sanctions, with a defined time frame, on Iran."

Barak said that Israel is working to ease the lives of Gaza's residents and to prevent humanitarian problems. However, Ban Ki-moon urged Israel to allow construction materials to enter Gaza as part of plans to rebuild facilities.

Barak closed with criticism of the Goldstone Report:

We are talking about a tendentious, one-sided report that harms the ability of democracies to fight against terror organizations, particularly those that operate from populated areas. The only accomplishment of the Goldstone report is that it strengthens terror organizations and their cynical use of civilians as human shields.

Iran Analysis: The Assembly of Experts Mystery

UPDATE 1550 GMT: And, as the supposed statement of the Assembly seems to have disappeared, here's another puzzler. The following clerics were not present during the final meeting of the session: Amini, Mesbah Yazdi, Hassan Rohani, Moghtadaiee, Mahdavi-Kani and Mousavi-Jazayeri.

Amini. though conservative, has been reported to be very unhappy with the post-election events. Amini is reportedly in hospital. Hassan Rohani is close to Rafsanjani.Mahdavi-Kani is conservative cleric, with very strong links and possible influence within the regime; he was also reportedly a proponent of the National Unity Plan.

OK, so each may have had a reason to be absent. But was Mesbah Yazdi, perhaps Ahmadinejad's most fervent backer, not present at a session that supposedly declared opposition "sedition"?

UPDATE 1430 GMT: Let's add to the mystery. At the beginning of the Assembly of Experts session, Rafsanjani said that Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, the Deputy Chair of the Assembly was not present; instead, his son was attending. (Yazdi Senior also missed the autumn session, saying he was ill, and he tried to resign from the secretariat of the Assembly, but Rafsanjani rejected the resignation.)

Legally Yazdi Junior cannot represent his father in Assembly meetings. So was Rafsanjani making the point that Mohammad Yazdi, a backer of President Ahmadinejad, is so used to illegal activity that he sends his son to represent him? And/or was Rafsanjani diminishing the legitimacy of a meeting "under special circumstances" where non-members could sit in?

When the news came through, it hit like a hammer blow. The Assembly of Experts, headed by Hashemi Rafsanjani, had issued their statement after a widely-anticipated two-day meeting. The 86-member body had declared its loyalty to the Supreme Leader:

The more we go ahead, the more our supreme leader proves his competence. Ayatollah Khamenei shed light on realities in dealing with the post-election sedition and undertook huge efforts in view of bringing unity to the nation.

So far, nothing surprising. Last summer's possibility of an Assembly challenge to Khamenei is long gone; all "establishment" figures, including Rafsanjani, have circled political wagons around the concept of clerical supremacy (velayat-e-faqih). But then the unexpected:

The revolutionary patience of the Iranian nation and the Islamic Republic ended in December after sedition leaders missed numerous chances to repent and return into the gown of the revolution. Sedition leaders flunked the Dec 30 final exam and they were removed from Iran's political spirit.

Bam. Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Mohammad Khatami: your resistance is over. Not just over, forbidden. With that doubly-offered word "sedition", the threat of arrest had been made, not by the Revolutionary Guard or the Iranian judiciary but by clerics, some of whom were supposedly sympathetic to the opposition demands.

No wonder a prominent (and shrewd) activist e-mailed me, "This statement has me worried. And it takes a lot to get me worried."

But then the story moves from drama to mystery. Did the Assembly really put down this challenge to Mousavi-Karroubi-Khatami?

The original source for the statement appears to have been Fars News. The Iranian Students News Agency also featured the story but simply summarised the  Fars account. However, as far as I can tell, the supposed statement has not been covered by the Islamic Republic News Agency, and it certainly has escaped any mention on Press TV's website.

Perhaps most importantly, there is still no sign of the statement on the official website of the Assembly.

So this morning, we are left, not with the certain shock of a once-and-for-all challenge to opposition leaders but with the uncertainty of whether Fars --- which has been known to create or distort stories --- has been the source of either outright fabrication or the channel for someone (who? take your pick) to "leak" a statement which had not been agreed by the Assembly.

A bit of recent history may be in order. Last summer a statement appeared, in the name of the Assembly, criticising the leadership of Hashemi Rafsanjani and calling on him to step down as chair. The initial reading, given Rafsanjani's high-profile Friday Prayer speech in mid-July standing up to the Government and the subsequent pressure and threats against him and his family, was that the regime had rallied against the former President.

Not so. Within days, it emerged that the statement had been drawn up by only a handful of clerics and signed by the fiercely pro-Ahmadinejad Ayatollah Mesbah Mohammad Yazdi. A number of Assembly members made it clear that they had no part of the effort, and Rafsanjani remained in his post.

So now, rather than the intended portrait of a regime now united against the opposition, we have the picture --- should the speculation of a clumsy propaganda effort be borne out --- of a system whose heart is still divided. There will be no resolution.

Watch this space.