The Latest from Iran (16 February): Un-Diplomatic Declarations

1955 GMT: The lawyer for 21-year-old Amir Reza Arefi says his client has been sentenced to death for "mohareb" (war against God). Arefi was arrested in April 2009, before the June election.

1945 GMT: Keeping Rafsanjani in His Box. An EA correspondent puts together an important story: with the 7th general assembly of the Assembly of Experts due next week, probably on Tuesday and Wednesday, new attacks have been launched upon Hashemi Rafsanjani, the head of the Assembly.

A statement from a number of clerics at Qom declares that, due to the performance of Hashemi Rafsanjani in the past few months, he is not suitable to continue in his post. And Fars News, criticising Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi for not returning to Iran after five months abroad, asserts that his settling in London is "strange and suspicious".

NEW Iran Special: Live-Blogging Ahmadinejad Press Conference (16 February)
NEW Iran: Why The Beating of Mehdi Karroubi’s Son Matters
NEW Iran Document: The 10-Demand Declaration of 4 Labour Unions
NEW Iran Document: Shadi Sadr at the UN on Abuse, Justice, and Rights (12 February)
Latest Iran Video: US Analysis (Gary Sick) v. Overreaction (Stephens, Haass)
Iran: The IHRDC Report on Violence and Suppression of Dissent
Iran: Human Rights Watch Report on Post-Election Abuses (11 February)
The Latest from Iran (15 February): Withstanding Abuse

1715 GMT: The Karroubi Wave. It appears that the Karroubi family --- not just Mehdi Karroubi, but the family --- are ready to propel the next wave of opposition to the Government and regime. In addition to Fatemeh Karroubi's interview (1600 GMT), Mehdi Karroubi's son Hossein has spoken out to Radio Zamaneh.


Hossein Karroubi says that his brother Ali was detained, while in the Karroubi entourage on 22 Bahman, by police and then handed to plainsclothesmen, who took him to the Amir-ol-momenin Mosque, mentioned in the letter written by his mother Fatemeh to the Supreme Leader. (The reason why Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi could make his statement that he did not issue an arrest warrant for Ali Karroubi, implying the entire story has been fabricated, is because there was none; Ali Karroubi was simply taken away.)

After his beating, Ali Karroubi was asked by police to sign a declaration that he was not abused in detention. He replied, "How can I sign such a declaration when my skull in fractured and my body is bruised?" So he wask asked to sign that he was not beaten by the police.

Hossein Karroubi says there will be no complaint lodged with the Judiciary as it no longer has power to deal with these matter; not does the Tehran Prosecutor General have any authority, or the courage, to deal with the “lebas shakhsis" (plainclothes operatives) who are operating with complete impunity.

And here's the stinger in Hossein Karroubi's tale: he argues that the plainclothes forces are supported from "very high up" (presumably meaning Ayatollah Khamenei or his office). This is why his mother wrote to the Supreme Leader, because --- as with the Kahrizak Prison scandal --- it is only he who could order a proper investigation into such matters.

More on this in an analysis on Wednesday....

1645 GMT: Releases for the Martyrs? Rahe-Sabz writes that the children of martyrs, such as Ali Motahhari (the son of Ayatollah Morteza Motahhari), have demanded release of political activists at a meeting with Iran's head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani. The report claims that Larijani declared there will be several releases, on low bail, to come.

1640 GMT: The Detention Centres of 22 Bahman. Peyke Iran reports that a former textile company near Azadi Square was used as a holding area for detainees last Thursday, keeping 20 women and 50 men before they were transported to Evin Prison. Amir-ol-momenin Mosque -- significantly the claimed location of the beating of Ali Karroubi --- was also used on 22 Bahman.

1635 GMT: The Economic Challenge. Another piece of evidence to support the pressing questions that Ahmadinejad weakly fielded at today's press conference (see 1455 GMT). The Iranian Labor News Agency says that the denial of industry minister Ali Akbar Mehrabian --- difficulties in the economy will be overcome --- will make no difference to the hardships of companies who are dying faster than they can be created: "Officials should take care today, tomorrow it will be much too late."

1625 GMT: Author and film critic Ardavan Tarakameh has been released on $30,000 bail after 50 days in detention. Mohammad Moin, the son of former Presidential candidate Mostafa Moin, has also been released on bail.

In contrast, economics professor and Mir Hossein Mousavi advisor Ali Arabmazar has not been charged after 50 days in prison.

1620 GMT: Sequel to "A Strange Shooting" (see 1235 GMT). Tabnak reports that the shooting around the car of Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, the former Speaker of Parliament, happened when security forces mistook the vehicle for one used by drug smugglers. When it failed to stop they fired warning shots in the air.

1615 GMT: Diversions. Follow-up on the Ahmadinejad press conference --- Reuters has now decided that the story is the President's hope that the case of the three arrested US citizens, detained while walking in northern Iran, may soon be resolved.

1600 GMT: The Karroubi Challenge. Following up on Mr Verde's analysis of the significance of the beating of Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali....

Fatemeh Karroubi, wife of Mehdi and mother of Ali, has told Rooz Online has spoken about the incident while declaring, “[We] will not under any circumstances back down on the rights of the Iranian people....The letter that I published a few days ago was not only for my own child, but for the children who are in prison. I wrote it with the hope that these things wouldn’t occur again.”

She recalled, “On the night that my [detained] son returned home, I was in shock and could not believe that they could say to Ali: ‘You were lucky, if you had stayed here for a couple more hours, instead of you we would be handing your corpse over [to your family].” Ali Karroubi had been forced to sign a statement saying that he would not give any interviews following his release.

Asked about the possibility of negotiating a settlement with the Government, Fatemeh Karroubi replied:

In my opinion, the interests of the country and demands and rights of the people are very important. This is not at all personal. Such a thing [a settlement] is not in any way possible....

I am stressed. But my concern and stress is neither for my husband nor for my children, but for the country, the revolution and the people of my country. Let me say this clearly, the more pressure there is, the more determined my family and I will be.

1455 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Two-Hour Stumble. The "Western" media is already reducing the President's press conference to the line-item of Tehran's defiance of the West: "Iran says it would respond to any new sanctions" (Reuters); "Iran says the world "will regret" sanctions" (BBC); "Iranian president warns against tougher sanctions" (CNN).

That's a shame, because the nuclear issue was about the only one on which Ahmadinejad was secure during his lengthy appearance. Indeed, the Government's strategy continues to be to use the negotiations with the West to show both strength and legitimacy; thus Press TV walks hand-in-hand with their Western counterparts, "Iran warns powers will 'regret' sanctions response".

The big story should be Ahmadinejad's internal difficulties. He came out fighting over the challenge to his right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, but he floundered badly on the economic issues. It is significant that the majority of questions from Iran's journalists, as opposed to foreign correspondents, were on the economy, and Ahmadinejad was close to incapable of handling challenges over Iran's economic growth, investment plans, unemployment and inflation figures, and even his budget. He was caught out at times by a lack of basic information, and at one point he simply made up a statistic for Iran's Gross Domestic Product.

Nor did Ahmadinejad, perhaps surprisingly, get away on post-election problems, despite his attempt to parade "tens of millions" of Iranians who supported him on 11 February. He evaded, weakly, a couple of questions about detentions before lamenting, "Of course we are sorry" that anyone has been arrested. Time and time again, he fell back on denunciations of the "ugly face" of the US, the regional intrigues of Western powers, and proclamations of their weakness vs. Iran's strength.

We'll watch for reactions but, for all Ahmadinejad's bluster and stamina, this does not look like the post-22 Bahman stamp of authority he was seeking.

1450 GMT: We have moved the live-blog of the Ahmadinejad press conference to a separate entry. A snap analysis follows in a few minutes.

1300 GMT: Journalist Sam Mahmoudi Sarabi has been released on $300,000 bail after 44 days in detention, 30 of which were in solitary confinement.

1235 GMT: A Strange "Shooting". We break from Mahmoud and the Prophets for an unusual story. Iranian media is reporting that shots were fired at a car carrying Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, former Speaker of Parliament, as it was travelling to Shiraz. Some official accounts say the shots were fired by mistake by the police, but the "conservative" Jahan News thinks there might have been foul play.

1210 GMT: On the Economic Front. Yesterday we noted the extensive comments of Mohammad Parsa of Iran's electricity syndicate on the difficulties in the industry, with 900,000 workers on the verge of dismissal and a Government debt of 5 billion toman ($5.06 million) to the electricity providers. Aftab News now also carries the interview.

1200 GMT: No White Smoke Update. At his press conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki limited his remarks on uranium enrichment talks to the general statement, "We have informed our Turkish friends about the latest developments on Iran's peaceful nuclear case. While we are continuing our (nuclear) activities we will consider any new idea or proposal, either given directly or indirectly via the agency (International Atomic Energy Agency)." Mottaki also downplayed Turkey's role, saying Ankara was "not a mediator but a major part in constant consultations for restoring peace and calm in the region".

So, while we cannot know if there were advances in the private Mottaki-Davutoglu talks, Tehran's public position is to stretch out the negotiations. Another sign of the low-key Iran approach is that Press TV's website still has no reference to the nuclear issue from this morning's conference.

1030 GMT: No White Smoke. Press TV's broadcast summary of the press conference of Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and his Turkish counterpart, Ahmet Davutoglu, makes no reference to uranium enrichment. There are only general platitudes about the two countries being "keys to regional stability" and the encouragement of bilateral trade relations.

0855 GMT: Mr Verde checks in with an analysis of the significance of the alleged beating of Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali.

0845 GMT: No, You're the Dictatorship. If we must continue with this story....

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has responded to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's claim that Iran is moving towards "military dictatorship" (see 0710 GMT): "They themselves are involved in a sort of military dictatorship and have practically ignored the realities and the truths in the region. America has a wrong attitude toward the issues in the Middle East and it is the continuation of their past wrong policies."

0755 GMT: A Moving Campaign. Iranian-American Youth (IAY) and Justice Through Music (JTM) will be carrying out a mobile billboard advertising campaign in Washington, D.C. today. Messages on the billboards will try to raise awareness of the internal situation and foster support for the opposition movement.

0740 GMT: Wayward Analysis. Yesterday's un-diplomatic declarations are accompanied by the superficial analysis of The New York Times this morning, "US Encounters Limits of Iran Engagement Policy". This piece builds from this episode:

Gen. James L. Jones, President Obama’s national security adviser, and Manouchehr Mottaki, the Iranian foreign minister, were in the same place at the same time, attending a high-level security conference in Munich with a number of high-ranking officials from around the world. And yet the two made no plans to meet with each other.

This is a very large herring because US-Iranian discussions would not take place between these senior advisors. (Mottaki's visit to Munich was made at the last minute and primarily so he could indicate that Iran might be open to a "swap" of uranium outside the country.) Instead, as in Geneva last autumn, talks would be held formally between the officials handling the nuclear brief or, behind the scales, between lower-level members of the diplomatic staff. The article has no recognition, for example, that quiet chats probably continue over areas of common interest such as Iraq and Afghanistan. And it never considers third-party brokers such as Turkey.

Put bluntly, The Times complements posturing such as Hillary Clinton's declaration by operating under the erroneous assumption that contacts between the US and Iran have been suspended.

0730 GMT: Top Journalism Award for Neda's Filmers. A George Polk Award, one of the top prizes in US journalism, has been given to the unnamed people who filmed the death of Neda Agha Soltan, the 26-year-old woman who died from a Basij gunshot during the 20 June demonstrations. The panel declared, "This award celebrates the fact that, in today's world, a brave bystander with a cell phone camera can use video-sharing and social networking sites to deliver news."

0725 GMT: Pressing for Rights. We have posted the text of human rights lawyer Shadi Sadr's address to the United Nations last Friday: "In addition to the numerous examples of human rights that are systematically violated...during the post-election events, basic and fundamental human rights remain in serious peril, such as equality of persons before the law, the right to peaceful assembly, the rights of political prisoners, and the rights of human rights defenders and civil society activists."

0710 GMT: With few public moves in Iran over the post-election conflict on Monday, most attention was on diplomatic diversions outside the country. Foremost amongst these was Hillary Clinton's apparently impromptu remark, at a Town Hall meeting in Qatar, that Iran was becoming a "military dictatorship".

Clinton's remark is less significant as an analysis of developments in Tehran than as a possible pointer of a shift in Washington's policy. However, if you go below the surface, there are only questions. With Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Iran today in an attempt to broker a deal on uranium enrichment (and he is unlikely to be there without the endorsement of Washington), Clinton's comment appears to be either a dissonant line or a rather clumsy attempt to warn the Iranians into accepting the bargain as well as justifying sanctions against the Republican Guard if the uranium deal is not agreed.

And there was more muddle in Tel Aviv, where the top US military commander, Admiral Mike Mullen, was discussing regional matters with Israeli counterparts and ministers. His refusal to rule out any option, while at the same time warning clearly of adverse consequences if there was an airstrike on Iran, meant that his statement could be seized by both proponents and opponents of military action. (Behind the public posture, I am almost certain that Washington has again warned Israel off any operations, but there is the possibility that the US is offering the clause, "In the future, however....")

If there was a notable setpiece on the international front on Monday, it came in Geneva, where the US, Britain, and France led the effort at the UN Human Rights Council to castigate Iran's post-election abuses. Of course, Tehran responded --- through Iranian High Council for Human Rights SecretaryGeneral Mohammad Javad Larijani --- that all was well and Iran was advancing social rights for groups like women and children. The episode indicated, however, that Washington and its allies will match any "engagement" with public pressure, and not only on the nuclear issue.

Inside Iran, the more important tension was over President Ahmadinejad's economic plans. The high-profile political challenge of the "conservatives" was complemented by a series of statements from members of Parliament criticising part or all of the Ahmadinejad budget. No signs yet that the conservatives will return to their more dramatic confrontation over the post-elections abuses, calling for the head of Ahmadinejad aide Saeed Mortazavi, but it is evident that the President's 22 Bahman performance has not quelled opposition.

Outside the establishment, Monday was notable for signs of labour activism. While a report of planned civil disobedience by the Tehran Bus Workers Union turned out to be untrue, the union joined three others in putting forth a public statement of ten demands (see separate entry).

The Latest from Iran (12 February): The Day After 22 Bahman

2150 GMT: A Quiet Night. For the first time in days, a noticeable drop in news and chatter. So we may close shop early and welcome you to a new day in several hours.

1910 GMT: We Take It All Back --- No Rest for Ahmadinejad. Remember how we said (1225 GMT) that Ali Larijani's statement on Iran's uranium programme yesterday --- which could have just as easily been given by the President --- indicated a possible easing of tensions between Ahmadinejad and his conservative/principlist opponents?

Well, forget that. Member of Parliament Ali Motahhari, who has taken the point in the challenge to the President, has resumed the attack, and he has done so in the Larijani-affiliated Khabar Online:

NEW Iran Video Special (2): Decoding the 22 Bahman Rally in Azadi Square
NEW Iran Video Special (1): The 22 Bahman Attack on Karroubi?
Iran: 22 Bahman's Reality "No Victory, No Defeat"
Iran Analysis: The Regime’s Pyrrhic Victory
Iran: The Events of 22 Bahman, Seen from Inside Tehran
Iran on 22 Bahman: Ahmadinejad “Wins Ugly” (This Time)
Iran: Greening YouTube — An Interview with Mehdi Saharkhiz
Videos: The 22 Bahman Protests From Around the World
Iran Document: Interview with Hossein Karroubi (11 February)
Latest Iran Video: The 22 Bahman Protests (11 February — Set 4)
Latest Iran Video: The 22 Bahman Protests (11 February — Set 3)
Latest Iran Video: The 22 Bahman Protests (11 February — Set 2)
Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 22 Bahman (11 February — Set 1)
Latest Iran Video: 22 Bahman – TV Coverage
Latest Iran Video: President Ahmadinejad’s Speech
The Latest from Iran (11 February): Today is 22 Bahman

We cannot claim the crisis is totally over until both sides make up for their mistakes. The differences of opinion between the government and [the opposition] might have been eased to some extent, but they still exist. Our statesmen should not imagine that people's massive presence in the Thursday rally reflects the approval of their performance.... The presence of political elite in the rally does not mean there is no longer any criticism or objection towards the regime.

Motahhari declared that the Government must stop banning the press and should release all political prisoners. And he made clear that Larijani's apparent conciliation on the nuclear issue was more of a demand that Ahmadinejad stick to a hard line against the United States:

People expect their governments not to seek compromise with big powers. The government should be honest with people and tell people if it is engaged in behind-the-scenes negotiations with big powers. Nor should the government tie Iran's nuclear issue to normalization of ties with the United States.

(English-language summary in Los Angeles Times)


1730 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayers Update. Hojjatoleslam Kazem Seddiqi takes the podium to sweep up after 22 Bahman. Very much a junior member of the Tehran FP group, he keeps it simple, "The epic [turnout] of the highly dignified Iranian nation was a manifestation of power, solidarity and national unity." And Western powers were disappointed, etc.

1605 GMT: More on Mousavi's Alleged Flight. A relative of Mir Hossein Mousavi has denied the Fars report that he was unable to fly from Tehran to Tabriz, because of crowds protesting at Tabriz's airport (see 1235 GMT).

An EA correspondent adds this twist: the crowds who arrived in Tabriz were not demonstrating against Mousavi but for him. Letting this story out, however, would have undermined the regime's projection of unity and support on 22 Bahman, thus Fars' re-telling of the tale.

1600 GMT: The sites of Tahavol-e-Sabz, Rah-e-Sabz and Kalemeh have been attacked by the Iranian Cyber Army. Rah-e-Sabz is now operating from an alternative site.

1550 GMT: Back With Not One But Two Video Specials. We've got claimed footage of the 22 Bahman attack on Mehdi Karroubi, and Mr Verde offers a detailed reading of an 8+ minute clip filmed in Azadi Square during President Ahmadinejad's speech.

Mr Verde's analysis should also be set alongside a viewing of this footage of Government supporters lining up to get free food and "Sandis" soft drinks, indifferent to the slogans being shouted over the loudspeakers.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0zAutN4MKQ[/youtube]

1255 GMT: In Case You Missed It. On Wednesday, the European Parliament adopted a sweeping resolution on human rights and nuclear issues in Iran. The headline paragraph:

[The Parliament] reminds the Iranian authorities that, in order to develop fruitful relations with the EU (European Union), Iran must guarantee fundamental human rights and respect for the principles of democracy, freedom of expression, and the rule of law, as this is a prerequisite for all countries which maintain political and economic relations with the EU; emphasises that the possible conclusion of a cooperation and trade agreement between Iran and the EU is contingent on respect for these values, Iran's full compliance with UNSC (United Nations Security Council and IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) resolutions and the provision of objective guarantees regarding the peaceful nature of its nuclear programme and the cessation of Iran's support for terrorist activities.

1235 GMT: Totally Must-Be-True Story of the Day. Fars News is alleging that Mir Hossein Mousavi had to cancel a flight from Tehran to Tabriz last night:

Mousavi, who wanted to fly to Tabriz at 9.30 pm..., was forced to cancel (the flight), because the people of Tabriz, who heard of it in the afternoon, started to pour to the airport and block its doors and access routes. When Mousavi heard of the protesters and their blockade, he decided to withdraw, and authorities asked the people to go. Nevertheless some of them stayed there for hours.... {This is like what] we have seen in Tehran on 22 Bahman, where he met with the people's protests and had to flee.

1225 GMT: Larijani Takes Ahmadi's Hand? Looks like one advantage of the President's shift to his "We Will Enrich Uranium" line is that it puts him in step with Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani. He declared yesterday:

Even if US President Barack Obama dares to repeat threats of tougher sanction against us as much as ten times, we will still be determined to pursue our enrichment program, but with a much faster pace.

Whenever we make a significant breakthrough, whether it is launching a satellite into space or any other technological or scientific achievement, they quickly demonize it and claim that it is aimed at military or spying purposes. But their problem really lies with the fact that our status in the international scene is changing for the better. They can not bear to see our progress, which is why they want to keep us as an underdeveloped country.

(There are indications that the pro-Larijani Khabar Online, which had been hostile to Ahmadinejad in recent weeks, may have changed its political line. We are monitoring.)

1140 GMT: We've posted another analysis of yesterday's events, Pedestrian's "No Victory, No Defeat".

0955 GMT: Regime Beat Goes On. Uranium enrichment, rockets, satellites. Repeat as necessary.

Press TV has two more pieces this morning. Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi told a rally, ""Today Iran has emerged as one of the top ten forerunners in the field of space research and technology. Our stellar progress in space science is only one of the many benefits derived from the victory of the Islamic Revolution more than thirty years ago." And former UN arms inspector Scott Ritter said on a Press TV broadcast, "I see the truth about Iran's nuclear program prevailing over the fictions" put out by analysts on "Western" media.

0950 GMT: The Green Re-Assessment. One of the key developments of 22 Bahman, beyond superficial judgements (see 0845 GMT), is the re-evaluation amongst the opposition of its political strategy and tactics for protest. Rah-e-Sabz already features an article on the subject.

0910 GMT: Peyke Iran is claiming that more than 1000 people were detained in Tehran yesterday.

0845 GMT: How the Foreign Media Was Blinded (Almost). One of the most striking reports on 22 Bahman by a "foreign" correspondent appears in Slate, written by Jason Rezaian. It's not the headline, "On the 31st anniversary of the Iranian revolution, the regime drowns out opposition protests", or the reports of the Azadi Square rally that are significant but Rezaian's (sometimes inadvertent) glimpses into the regime's control of the story:

For the first time in months, several members of the foreign press were allowed to cover a public event in Tehran. We all gathered at the foreign-media office of the Ministry of Islamic Culture and Guidance early this morning to receive credentials for the day, neon-colored vests marking us as press, and chocolate milk. We then boarded three buses and made our way to Freedom Square. I kept my eyes glued to the window waiting to catch signs of protests, but there was nothing....

We were led to a raised platform less than 100 feet from where President Ahmadinejad would deliver his speech. Unfortunately, we weren't allowed to mingle with the crowds, and those near us, mostly teenage girls, were told not to speak with us, but instead to show off their propaganda signs proclaiming "Death to America," "Death to Israel," and "Death to the U.K." Several minutes before the president began his speech, text-messaging service was cut.....

Despite the restrictions, some telling counter-points sneak out. Rezaian estimated "tens of thousands", not million, coming into Azadi. He notes, "Before the president had finished his speech—but after he had made his main points—the crowds began to disperse," as he concludes, "These events...are intended more for foreign-media consumption than for the crowds that are present. Any support won or reinforced among the locals is just a bonus."

Yet, in the end, Rezaian too falls victim to the regime's manipulations. For based solely on his glimpse out his bus window into and out of Azadi, he declares, "Today it seems clear that the street phase is over. The protests have been pushed underground, which means that the green revolution everyone has been waiting for will not be televised."

0830 GMT: The Nukes! Look at the Nukes! And here is one of those signals we mentioned below: the Ahmadinejad Government is putting its foot to the floor to ensure the nuclear issue takes precedence over any internal quibbles. Press TV declares:

"Iran's nuclear chief [Ali Akhbar Salehi] confirms that the country has produced its first batch of higher-enriched uranium for use in a medical-research reactor in Tehran. This comes after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had announced on Thursday that the country has successfully managed to complete production of its first stock of uranium enriched to 20 percent."

0820 GMT: A bit of a late start for us this morning, as we try to assess and move beyond the events of 22 Bahman. We have an insider's view of the day, provided by Mr Azadi from eyewitnesses in Tehran, and two analyses: Mr Verde writes a guest piece for EA on the regime's "Pyrrhic victory", and Scott Lucas considers the political significance for the Islamic Republic, the opposition movement, and especially President Ahmadinejad with his "ugly win".

We have also posted an interview of one of the most prominent post-election activists, Mehdi Saharkhiz, with America's ABC News on social media and the Green Movement.

Now, however, we're moving to the day after 22 Bahman. We're going to be watching for the reactions and manoeuvres of those involved with the political developments. While Iran is now in the midst of a four-day holiday, there may be some signals, not only with the setpiece of Friday prayers but with individuals and groups trying to re-align their positions.

So, not quite back to normal following yesterday's tensions, dramas, and letdowns. But then again, when has the day ever been "normal" since 12 June?

The Latest from Iran (11 February): Today is 22 Bahman

2130 GMT: For What It's Worth. The Supreme Leader's office has issued a statement saying that Ayatollah Khamenei is jolly happy that today's gathering has shown the unity of Iran in the face of the "arrogance" of Western nations.

2100 GMT: A Correction and a Question. One of the hot stories this morning was that reformist Mohammad Reza Khatami and his wife, Zahra Eshraghi, the granddaughter of Ayatollah Khomeini, had been briefly detained before being released with their promise they would not return to the streets (see 0815 and 0832 GMT).

A reliable EA source from Iran offers this, based on inside information, "The husband and wife were led to their car by security forces in plain clothes to leave the area for their own security."

But that in turn raises a question, "Security from whom?"

NEW Iran on 22 Bahman: Ahmadinejad “Wins Ugly” (This Time)
NEW Iran Document: Interview with Hossein Karroubi (11 February)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 22 Bahman Protests (11 February — Set 4)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 22 Bahman Protests (11 February — Set 3)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 22 Bahman Protests (11 February — Set 2)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 22 Bahman (11 February — Set 1)
NEW Latest Iran Video: 22 Bahman – TV Coverage
NEW Latest Iran Video: President Ahmadinejad’s Speech
NEW Iran: A Song for 22 Bahman
NEW Iran: A Beginner’s Guide to The Post-Election Conflict
A Song for Whomever: “Wise Up”
Iran Analysis: On the Eve of 22 Bahman
UPDATED Iran Analysis: The Rafsanjani “Ultimatum” to the Supreme Leader
The Latest from Iran (10 February): Mousavi, Pink Floyd, & 22 Bahman

2000 GMT: We have just posted our special analysis of 22 Bahman, "Ahmadinejad Wins Ugly (This Time)". I hope it takes discussion beyond today to the political complexities of weeks and months ahead: it is one of the toughest pieces I've ever had to write.


1710 GMT: And Another Re-Assessment. Setareh Sabety sends in her thoughts:

A journalist friend asked me what I thought of today's events and I thought I'd share it with everyone. This is just a tired witnesses assessment of a day that is still not over and where not all reports and clip have yet arrived.

Today did not seem as big as Ashura [27 December] at all, although there are some reports [of continuing protests] and Jaras is tellling people to assemble in the evening. People have been prevented from going near SedaSima (IRIB) or Evin (Prison). The clips show such a huge lack of coordination and street-level leadership. The students that seemed to do the organizing in 16 Azar (7 December) are now all in jail it seems. So unless dramatic new footage comes in or the scattered protests are prolonged into the night, then it is a slight disappointment for the greens and not as huge a protest as predicted.

The big points won are 1) the brutal treatment of (Zahra) Rahnavard and (Mehdi) Karroubi gives them more revolutionary stature and 2) the regime did not succeed in outshining the demonstrators because once again it had to resort to violence and not just outnumbering the protesters. The news of the brutality will ruin the image of a populist government that the regime wants to display. This is a regime that prides itself in its ability to rally masses on these occasions. Today it has lost more credibility.

If no further developments or revelations occur, the opposition needs to rethink its strategy of demonstrating on official and permitted days when the regime has time to plan and clamp down on its moves. Also it will become more apparent that in the face of such regime tactics and brutality more organization and leadership is needed. We have lost our fear but we need to know where to go with our new-found courage!

1700 GMT: Pedestrian passes on a letter from a friend who was at Azadi Square:

The greens made a stupid miscalculation to want to “take over Azadi” and this illusion was further enforced by individuals abroad [e.g., Sazegara]. State security and supporters had taken over the area, and it was impossible to have a significant impact there. I of course did not see the entire city, but the turnout of the greens felt very low. We needed at least 400,000 to show a significant impact, and thus far, it does not feel that way.

This is disastrous. The only real power the greens have had up to now is by showing their numbers on the streets. Now if with their two week campaign of terror, they’ve actually managed to get everyone to stay home, they will start putting even more pressure on activists and opposition groups … the few who are left out of prison that is.

I feel nauseated, and very scared.

1655 GMT: We have posted Tehran Bureau's interview with Hossein Karroubi, the son of Mehdi Karroubi, about the attack on his father's entourage, the arrest of his brother, and the events of 22 Bahman.

1600 GMT: In addition to the Shiraz arrests (1500 GMT), Rah-e-Sabz reports more than 100 arrested in Mashhad.

1540 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz says clashes continue in parts of Tehran, including Arya Shahr and Ferdows Boulevard.

1500 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz is reporting that more than 20 people were arrested in Shiraz today.

1450 GMT: Mousavi's Day. Kalemeh reports that Mir Hosein Mousavi tried to join the rally with people on Azadi Street when plainclothes militia, special forces, and Government supporters with batons surrounded him.

1415 GMT: Kalemeh is reporting that Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, was beaten in Sadeghieh Square by a group of basijis. People helped her scape by making a human chain around her.

No indication if Mir Hossein Mousavi was present.

1340 GMT: MediaWatch. Islamic Republic News Agency, down yesterday, is back on-line but Fars News is out of action.

1251 GMT: Well, That Settles That. Press TV's website tries to put everything in order in a few sentences:

Millions of Iranians across the country have taken to the streets to celebrate the 31st anniversary of the victory of the Islamic Revolution....In the capital Tehran, an extraordinarily high number of people from all walks of life marched across the city and gathered at Azadi (Freedom) Square to take part in the festivities. They were carrying banners denouncing the enemies of the country....

A few hundred of supporters of Iran's defeated presidential candidates also rallied in Tehran.

Press TV's broadcast coverage, which now features nuggets such as a tourist from Brazil and vistor from "Oregon" being surprised and amazed at the pro-Government crowds, is presenting the opposition rallies with shots of a few people milling about in a square in western Tehran. Snuck in is a reference to both Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi being seen at the demonstrations.

1250 GMT: Service Announcement. Remember, folks, if everything is running too slow here, we have set up a back-up site for the LiveBlog.


1240 GMT: How Big Was the Security Presence to Prevent a March In Tehran? Have a look at our thumbnail picture from Sadeghiyeh Square, which was to be the start point for a move on Azadi Square and which was where Mehdi Karroubi was turned back.

1230 GMT: Karroubi's Son on the Attack. Hossein Karroubi, son of key opposition figure Mehdi Karroubi, has given details of the assault on his father's entourage this morning. In an interview with Deutsche Welle, Hossein Karroubi declared, "I witnessed the most brutal treatment of people in the past eight months today."

1225 GMT: Yes, Hashemi Was There. Iranian Labour News Agency runs the picture (see left) that proves former President Hashemi Rafsanjani was at the official rally today.

1210 GMT: The State of Play. In Tehran, it is a case of the regime's one-off Big Bang with the Azadi Square rally vs. the smaller but still important fireworks that have occurred throughout the capital and will continue through the day.

Elsewhere, we are now ready to confirm opposition demonstrations in Isfahan, Mashhad, Ahvaz, and Shiraz.

Peyke Iran has a summary of clashes in Tehran and Isfahan.

1145 GMT: EPersian radio --- a source that we treat with caution because claims can be exaggerated --- reports that the crowd in Tabriz is chanting: "Today is day of blood; Yazid (the caliph who killed Imam Hussein; take your pick who the modern equivalent is) will have to go!"

1135 GMT: Government forces are mobilized against protesters gathering on Yadegar Imam Road.

1130 GMT: Member of Green movement in Shiraz: heavy security presence, at least 20 people arrested.

Mehdi Karoubi's son confirms to CNN his father was attacked. Doctor treating him for tear gas burns to his eyes.

1125 GMT: Female protesters arrested in Vali Asr and Haft-e Tir.

1110 GMT: There are many injuries in Esfahan.

1100 GMT: Clashes have now spread to the northern parts of Tehran.

1045 GMT: What We're Watching. Clashes continue across Tehran, especially in the north of the city. This is likely to be a long day, and no predictions should be made at the moment.

Scott Lucas is off to do BBC World just after 11:30. Tricia Sutherland and Ali Yenidunya will be minding the EA shop.

1015 GMT: Clashes are escalating at Amir Abad, close to the main Tehran University dormitories.

1005 GMT: North Tehran is the scene of "sporadic and at times heavy" clashes, especially at Vanak Square. That is notable, since Vanak had been relatively free of clashes in demonstrations in November and December, including Ashura.

1000 GMT: Farda News is reporting that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani participated in the rally today at Enghelab and Palestine Streets.

0940 GMT: The mainstream site Mardomak is calling the security forces on Tehran's streets "akin to a military regime".

0920 GMT: Resources To Keep By Your Side. For those taking notes, an activist has posted a full paraphrase --- "10,834 characters, likely filled with typos, and relatively boring" --- of Ahmadinejad's speech.

And here is the map of the action today in Tehran:



0905 GMT: To Prove Our Analysis. An example of the hit-and-run confrontations comes from Rah-e-Sabz, which reports clashes between security forces and people trying to reach Azadi Square, as the crowds chant "Death to Dictator" and "Death to Khamenei".

Of course, none of this is making it onto State media, whose propaganda strategy is in overdrive. All of their coverage is focused on the rally in Azadi Square, with the theme being "Iran v. the West" (in other words, no mention as well as no images of internal conflict). Press TV is trotting on "analyst" after "analyst" talking about resistance to Western domination --- one example is the Beirut-based Franklin Lamb.

Two questions: 1) how long can this regime effort last, if the crowds have done their bit and are ready to go home? 2) what happens for the day, as opposition groups (whose size we cannot yet estimate) regroup and marches at different points through Tehran, even as the security forces try to prevent a single, large demonstration?

0900 GMT: Meanwhile, Back to the Real Story. So far, this morning is a repeat of the mornings of other protest days. While the regime tries to hold its showpiece rally, the priority of security forces is to prevent any mass gathering of opposition.

So the running violence throughout the capital is of Iranian security forces pushing back at crowds as they move towards squares. The most dramatic examples was the aggression against the entourages of Mehdi Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami, but the episodes is being repeated in numerous places.

0855 GMT: The Ahmadinejad Showpiece. President's speech was 1 hour, 15 minutes, but you could pretty much wrap it up in the snippets we've posted below.

Key take-away: Ahmadinejad was almost entirely focused on the "external", with Great Iran v. Duplicitous/Evil/Scheming "West". He avoided the internal issues.

Press TV has followed the script, paying particular attention to the "20% uranium declaration" and the nuclear issue.

How does this play, not only with the "Iranian people" but with the opposition and his critics "within the establishment"? Wait and see.

0832 GMT: Fereshteh Ghazi have confirmed that reformist leader Mohammad Reza Khatami and his wife, Zahra Eshraghi (the granddaughter of Ayatollah Khomeini), have been released after a brief detention (see 0815 GMT). They have been warned not to return to the streets.

0830 GMT: President Ahmadinejad still going on about Iran v. The World: "Iran does not welcome confrontation....Obama should make great changes", etc., etc.

0827 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz now carries the report of Ali Karroubi's arrest (see 0805 GMT).

0825 GMT: And Ahmadinejad's Big Declaration? "The first batch of 20% uranium has been produced already."

0815 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz is claiming that Mohammad Reza Khatami, first Secretary-General of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front (and not to be confused with former President Khatami), and his wife, Zahra Eshraghi, the granddaughter of Ayatollah Khomeini, have been arrested. (http://www.rahesabz.net/story/10019/)

0810 GMT: That Ahmadinejad Speech. "World powers need us more than we need them."

0805 GMT: Urgent --- Ali Karroubi, son of Mehdi Karroubi has been arrested. The news has been confirmed by his brother, Hossein Karroubi.

0757 GMT: And Khatami? Parleman News is reporting that former President Mohammad Khatami was present in marches between Zanjan St and Azadi Square, supported by loud chants, but he was soon forced to pull back and leave after pressure from pro-Government force. (http://www.parlemannews.ir/index.aspx?n=8416)

0749 GMT: The Karroubi Attack. We are treated as confirmed, given the report from Fereshteh Ghazi on her Facebook page:

Karroubi was subject to aggression on Ashrafi Esfahani Street. Batons and "coloured bullets" were used to attack his bodyguards. Windows of his car smashed. He was forced to go back home in someone else's car. Karroubi was unscathed but unable to proceed."

Rah-e-Sabz also reports.

0748 GMT: More Ahmadinejad: "Domination of the world depends on control of energy. Imperialist Britain managed to subjugate most of the world in its empire through the cheap Middle Eastern energy. The engines of war were successful becuase they extracted and appropriated cheap Middle Eastern energy.

From a geopolitical standpoint, major potential is linked to our regime."

0745 GMT: Attack on Karroubi. The best report so far re the claimed assault on Mehdi Karroubi comes from a Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty journalist who talked to Karroubi's son: "Karroubi and his car came under attack by hardliners, people being beaten up."

Parleman News and Fereshteh Ghazi are now reporting the attack as well.

0730 GMT: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has begun his speech in Azadi Square. He has begun by praising 22 Bahman, declaring that "this Revolution goes beyond Iran's border....It affects the globe....The future of humanity is inter-connected."

Now Ahmadinejad is explaining why the "great powers" are against Iran.

0715 GMT: Press TV's correspondent in Azadi Square is going a bit over the top in the effort to show how massive this is for the regime: "Each year I see something more interesting....This year, in the beautiful skies, it's the skydivers. And the speaker is calling on the judiciary to take action on events that happened after elections."

0714 GMT: State media footage of President Ahmadinejad in Azadi Square:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0P629e7vGk[/youtube]

0710 GMT: State media is featuring film of large pro-Government crowds moving along routes to Tehran University and Azadi Square. No footage, however, from Sadeghieh Square.

0700 GMT: An EA correspondent, from reliable Tehran sources, reports heavy security presence in 7 Tir Square and Hafez Street, armed with batons but no visible firearms.

0650 GMT: Web Issues. The websites of Islamic Republic News Agency, which was taken off-line yesterday, or Press TV are not loading.

0645 GMT: Press TV is reporting President Ahmadinejad is at Azadi Square.

0640 GMT: There are reports of clashes at Sadeghieh Square, where Mehdi Karroubi was due to arrive about 10 minutes ago. These come from reliable Iranian activists, but we are treating with caution for the moment.

0620 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN, from a witness, reports "pick-up trucks with speakers roaming streets blaring pro-govt slogans and songs".

0610 GMT: The Green site Rah-e-Sabz is reporting extensive deployment of security forces, including detachments in Amirabad Street and around the state television complex. (EA correspondents note that this probably should be Karegar rather than Amirabad Street.)

0600 GMT: Press TV and Fars are now putting out state media line: "People across Iran have begun celebrating the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution". Live shots of people standing about in Azadi Square. The studio anchor is on a "looped" script, repeating over and over the basics of 22 Bahman and "tens of millions" of Iranians coming out on this day to support the regime.

CNN International, in contrast to previous protest days, is already going big on its coverage. It's now running an extensive overview with interviewees like Mehdi Khalaji and Behzad Yaghmaian.

0550 GMT: Well, Press TV English hasn't quite gone to special coverage. It's showing "In Prison My Whole Life". Thought at first this might be a subversive reference to post-election detentions, but on second glance, looks like it is a study of US injustice.

0545 GMT: Reports, which we are checking, of several hundred gathered in Tabriz. People are on the move in Tehran, where it is 9:15 a.m.

0540 GMT: Activists reports that "Death to Dictator" is already being chanted by people gathered in the north and northwest of Azadi Square, the official gathering point for the pro-Government rally and the unofficial destination of the opposition marches.. Basij militia have gathered at bus stops at the northwest corner of Azadi Square. (iranstreets)

0530 GMT: Here we go. It is 22 Bahman, the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, and we, like many others, start the day with nervous expectation of what is to come.

The Latest from Iran (10 February): Mousavi, Pink Floyd, & 22 Bahman

2325 GMT: That's it for today. We'll be back at 0600 GMT. Look forward to seeing you then.

2315 GMT: What's Your Punchline? Looking for a joke to end the evening. Here's the set-up line, courtesy of Press TV: "A senior Iranian commander has announced that the country has developed a new system to distract missiles."

2310 GMT: On the Labour Front. Mansour Osanloo, the leader of the Tehran bus drivers union, has been transferred to Solitary Ward Number 1 in Gohardasht Prison, also known as the “doghouse”.

NEW Iran Analysis: On the Eve of 22 Bahman
UPDATED Iran Analysis: The Rafsanjani “Ultimatum” to the Supreme Leader
Iran Feature: Human Rights Round-up (1-7 February 2010)
The Latest from Iran (9 February): 48 Hours to Go

2225 GMT: Taking Away Karroubi's Protection? In an interview with Radio Farda, Mohammad Taghi Karroubi, Mehdi Karroubi’s son, says that several former Revolutionary Guards, wartime commanders, and family members of martyrs who had volunteered for protect Mehdi Karroubi on 22 Bahman have been called in for questioning and have not yet gone home. He says that they have probably been arrested.

2214 GMT: State Media Off-Line. On the eve of 22 Bahman, cyber-warriors have taken down the website of the Islamic Republic News Agency.

2200 GMT: Lots of Internet fuss tonight that Iran's telecommunications agency has declared it will shut down Google Mail as Iran prepares to roll out a national e-mail service. For some reason, I can't get hold of this as a major development rather than as possible bluster for 22 Bahman --- is the suspension technically possible? And how many Iranians would it affect?

2150 GMT: More interesting eve of 22 Bahman articles: Jason Shams, an Iranian-American who was involved with the Green Movement in Tehran up to November 2009, offers an insider's view of the protests in The Daily Beast.

And Edward Yeranian has a useful preview for the Voice of America --- Enduring America pops up to contribute to the analysis.

2145 GMT: Back from a break to post the latest on the Rafsanjani-Supreme Leader story: the former President's website has an interview in which Rafsanjani makes cursory references around Ayatollah Khamenei and a more pointed reference to the "15 Khordaad" uprising of June 1963. A subtle signal of support for tomorrow's protest?

1925 GMT: Mr Modesty. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki is a master of understatement:

"After 1400 years the Islamic Revolution in Iran… by offering a new method of social governance shone in front of secularism and liberalism that are the cause of all social problems and showed man the path to salvation.”

1915 GMT: The Cutting Edge. Prominent Twitter activist oxfordgirl is profiled in The Guardian of London today.

1900 GMT: Trial and Punishment. An Iranian activist updates that, after eight months in prison, the head of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, Mohsen Mirdamadi, finally went on trial. He denied all charges.

The activist also notes that prominent human rights attorney Mohamad Oliyayifard has been sentenced to one year in prison.

1750 GMT: The US Treasury has extended sanctions against the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, freezing the foreign assets of a commander, General Rostam Qasemi, was blacklisted, and four firms --- Fater Engineering, Imensazen Consultant Engineers, Makin and Rahab Institutes --- linked to the Revolutionary Guards' construction company.

1635 GMT: So Much for "Foreign Coverage". A few weeks Iranian state media loudly proclaimed that more than 100 foreign news organisations had been licensed to cover 22 Bahman. Well, here is what they get to cover:

An official coordinating the media [said] that reporters and photographers were allowed to cover only the speech of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at the historic Azadi (Freedom) Square in southwestern Tehran, and not the traditional street marches across the city.

1625 GMT: Twitter Activism. An Iranian activist sends word of a special initiative for 22 Bahman:

"We are doubling the fun on Twitter in co-operation with the Venezuelan resistance. We are planning to tweet up a storm with supporters of Iran and Venezuela both tweeting in mutual support, using a combined hashtag: #IranVzla - in addition to any other tags we might use. The tweet campaign will be starting from 12:00 noon Venezuela/20:00 Iran (1630 GMT)."

1613 GMT: The Purge of the Journalists. Reporters Sans Frontières claims 400 journalists have left the country since June 2009 and 2000 journalists are jobless.

1610 GMT: The parents of blogger Agh Bahman have been arrested. Last week Bahman's sisters were detained.

1530 GMT: Campaigners for Human Rights and Democracy in Iran claim that prisoners in Gohardasht Prison rioted this morning, taking control of a cellblock, stripping naked the warden and forcing him to flee.

1520 GMT: Rumour of Day. The Paris-based Intelligence Online claims:

Officially, the Iranian Vice President Esfandiar Rahim Mashai [Note: Rahim Mashai is a former Vice President and current Chief of Staff to the President] was in Geneva February 1 to attract investors to the Kish Island Persian Gulf Sea Project. But according to our information, Mashai also took part in secret meetings with American officials, just days before Iran announced its intention to enrich uranium by 20% instead of the current 3.5%. Mashai's presence in Geneva coincided with the presence at the United Nations' headquarters in the city of the large delegation of American nuclear specialists who had come to finalize the new Start treaty with the Russians.

1440 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has written an open letter to the Council supervising Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, critiquing the coverage of the state media.

1435 GMT: The Tajik Flop. Looks like the regime's attempts to use former Vice President Mohammad Reza Tajik for propaganda points (see 1130 GMT), releasing him temporarily to broadcast about "foreign intervention" and heartfelt support of the Supreme Leader, has backfired. Khabar Online goes out of its way to deny that Tajik's statement was recorded or that he was drugged before going on air.

1425 GMT: Pre-22 Bahman Reading. The Newest Deal has an excellent overview on the eve of the big day, and Persian Umpire gives a perspective from Tehran:

I don’t remember being as freaked out as I am now before any other demonstration. Caffeine and Nicotine are my best friends these days. Part of the reason is the unpredictability of 22 Bahman, in terms of turnout on both sides, the regime’s reaction, and the outcome. I have a small window for talking about this past week as internet connections are fading away, so I’ll skimp on details, but here’s how things are, a sort of “word on the street is”, from my usual sources (butchers, intellectuals, businessmen, grocers, cab drivers, artists, old, young).

1350 GMT: Mothers of Mourning Arrested. An Iranian activist, claiming the Mothers of Mourning as the source, gives the names of 19 members of the group who were detained on Monday.

1345 GMT: Confirmation. Parleman News is now carrying the story of Mohsen Aminzadeh's release.

1225 GMT: Aminzadeh Released. EA sources report that Mohsen Aminzadeh, Deputy Foreign Minister in the Khatami Government, has just been freed from Evin Prison, possibly on a short-term release.

1210 GMT: New Information on Rafsanjani-Khamenei Meeting. We will have a full update this afternoon, but an EA correspondent reports that the Rafsanjani "ultimatum" meeting with the Supreme Leader took place on Monday. Rafsanjani did raise the specific case of Alireza Beheshti; however, he also argued that Khamenei should intervene to free all political prisoners.

The correspondent also emphasises that the Rafsanjani meeting should be seen in the context of the earlier encounter between Khamenei and Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili, in which Mousavi-Ardebili declared his disappointment with the Supreme Leader's post-election leadership.

1155 GMT: Mousavi at Rally? A reliable EA source says that, at this point, Mir Hossein Mousavi is intending to participate in tomorrow's march, although the location is being protected for security reasons. These plans, however, may change.

1140 GMT: Peyke Iran reports that former political prisoners have been banned from demonstrating on 22 Bahman.

1130 GMT: The Tajik Mystery. Islamic Republic News Agency is now featuring last night's televised statement by former Vice President Mohammad Reza Tajik.

As we reported last night, Tajik was taken directly from Evin Prison to IRIB television for a 10:30 p.m. broadcast. In his statement, he declared that the protests were fostered by foreign groups from the US and Israel who tried to destroy the "unity" of Iran. He also put great emphasis on the authority of the Supreme Leader and the system of velayat-e-faqih.

That is quite a conversion for someone who was one of the senior advisors to Mir Hossein Mousavi up to his detention in early January. And here's some more food for thought: Tajik, like fellow advisor Alireza Beheshti, was released from Evin but only for a short time.

Interpretation? If Tajik does not make last night's statement, then he definitely returns to prison. Now there is a chance that he may remain free.

1050 GMT: Tajbakhsh Sentence Reduced. Fars News, quoting the lawyer for Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh, says that an Iranian appeal court has reduced Tajbakhsh's prison term for espionage from 15 years to five years. Tajbakhsh was arrested in July and sentenced in October.

1015 GMT: We Won't Leave Those Kids Alone. It's Iran police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam taking the lead in issuing warnings today:

We are closely watching the activities of the sedition movement and several people who were preparing to disrupt the February 11 rallies were arrested....There will be no worries in this regard. We are fully prepared for holding a safe and glorious rally.

Ahmadi-Moghaddam declared that police, the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij Islamic militia were "ready for any possible incident on February 11 and they will let no one create insecurity".

0905 GMT: 22 Bahman MTV. Performed by Blurred Vision and directed by Babak Payami, "Hey, Ayatollah, Leave Those Kids Alone":

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIP38eq-ywc[/youtube]

0855 GMT: Pressure on the Government. Ayatollah Dastgheib has criticised the "un-Islamic behaviour" of the Basij militia, and Ayatollah Ostadi has attacked the ideas of President Ahmadinejad and his chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

And the pro-Larijani Khabar Online will not let up: a series of "guest blogs" featured on the website call for respect of the press and warn that "self-made wars" serve only Iran's enemies and that some "will use every pretext to prevent criticism".

0845 GMT: Pressure on IRIB. The dispute between Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting and Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Imam, continues. Following the publication ofKhomeini's letter of complaint over the "censoring" of his grandfather's speeches, a reformist MP claims that many of his colleagues want to withdraw their support from IRIB and an ally of Ali Larijani, Ahmad Pournejati, has attacked the head of the broadcaster, Ezzatollah Zarghami.

0830 GMT: The "Mohareb" Sentences. Press TV --- curiously, almost a day after the news broke --- has repeated that one detainee has been sentenced to death and eight given long prison sentences for their "mohareb" (war against God) activities on Ashura. The Iranian regime had threatened to execute all nine.

0810 GMT: The Professors Write Khamenei. Iran Green Voice publishes a signed letter from 116 academics at Tarbiat Modarres University in Tehran, calling on the Supreme Leader to deal with the "cruelty" that has arisen within the Iranian system.

0805 GMT: Karroubi's Confirmation. Mehdi Karroubi's office has just announced that the cleric will be demonstrating tomorrow and has repeated the call for Iranian people to state their demands firmly but calmly. He is reportedly joining the march from Sadeghieh Square to Azadi Square at 10 a.m. local time (0630 GMT).

0800 GMT: Ebrahim Yazdi, former foreign minister and leader of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been moved from prison to hospital. Yazdi, detained since Ashura, has been in poor health for months.

0745 GMT: Less than 24 hours to 22 Bahman, and the report of Rafsanjani's "ultimatum" to the Supreme Leader, including the snap analysis from our correspondent, is still provoking lots of comment and speculation. Beyond that event, we  have posted an analysis of the political situation on the eve of Thursday's demonstrations.

Iran: Quick! Look Over There! The Nuclear Distraction

Five days before 22 Bahman, the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, but it appears the Ahmadinejad Government would prefer that folks look away.

Friday Prayers in Tehran, the last before the marches of 11 February, were very quiet, with the least-known of the prayer leaders (Emami Kashani) giving a relatively muted statement. And this morning, the State line is all Nukes, Nukes, Nukes.


CNN declares in excitement that Iranian Foreign Manouchehr Mottaki said Friday at an international security conference in Germany, "The amount of [Iran's] uranium [to be swapped abroad for higher-enriched uranium] is negotiable. But I am confident that a solution can be found." The New York Times trots alongside with more from Mottaki, “We are approaching a final agreement that can be accepted by all parties. I personally believe we have created conducive ground for such an exchange in the not very distant future."

This is not just a case of the Western media bigging-up a story and missing what is happening inside Iran. CNN took its lead from Press TV, which repeats on its website that Mottaki told the Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, in a set-piece late-night meeting, "The most important point is the political will. Personally I feel this will is there." Equally important, Press TV has a second story, boosting Bildt's encouragement to Tehran to deal, "Go to the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency]. "Schedule a meeting as soon as possible according to what was agreed (at the Geneva meeting with the "5+1" powers) on October 1."

The Ahmadinejad Government's move is significant --- and coordinated --- enough for the Islamic Republic News Agency to get a quick story out on its English-language website (usually IRNA takes at least 24 hours to recycle stories from its Persian homepage), "Iranian FM upbeat on reaching a nuclear fuel swap deal."