Israel-Russia: Situation Now A-OK on Iran?

On Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to discuss Hamas, the kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, sanctions on Iran, and Russian's pending delivery of  S-300 missiles to Tehran.

At the end of the day, both leaders got what they sought. Medvedev did not put himself under any commitment to punish Iran severely but maintained a "threatening" position vis-a-vis Tehran. He  told Netanyahu that Russia will hold off on  delivering the S-300s to Iran. A spokewoman added: "The position of Russia regarding sanctions remains unchanged. [But] if Iran remains uncooperative, no one can exclude the use of sanctions."

Netanyahu was satisfied to return home with the "success" of the deferred delivery of the S-300s, and he ticked another  box in his "efforts to exhaust every possible chance to achieve peace" before "the necessity of applying a pre-emptive strike" against Iran in the future.



Netanyahu also sent another message in Moscow at a dinner meeting with Greek counterpart George Papandreo : "Turkey will go nuclear if Iran becomes so". Netanyahu added he was concerned Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia would soon begin their own attempts to develop a nuclear weapon.

On Hamas-Russia relations, Netanyahu implicitly asked Moscow to limit its relations with the Gazan organisation. A senior source in Netanyahu's entourage said the Israeli leader told  Medvedev, "We are not pleased with your relations with Hamas. But since they exist, we can relay messages on humanitarian issues. Tell Hamas they won't get a better offer from us on the deal [for Shalit, the Israeli soldier held by Hamas]."

So, after some fuss, nothing changed in the position vis-a-vis Tehran. Moscow might use the deferment of the sale of S-300 missiles to urge Netanyahu to stop plans by an Israeli firm to close a major arms deal with Georgia, a proposal leaked by Russian intelligence on Friday. In the long run, if not in the medium-term, Moscow can use its third party role, both with Hamas and with Tehran, to increase its credibility and bargaining power in the region. However, the question is how long can tension between the West and Tehran continue without a breaking point for Russia's search for a more cooperative Tehran?

Today on EA (16 February 2010)

Iran: More posturing today over the nuclear issue, as well as slurs and counter-claims between the US and Iran on which country is the "dictatorship". Human rights continues to dominate internal news, and labour activism appears to be gathering speed, although there no firm signs of a nationwide general strike yet. We have live-blogging from Ahmadinejad's press conference, and as always, all news and links will be updated throughout the day on our live weblog.

Late-breaking news is of a rising challenge from the Karroubi family, with both Mehdi Karroubi's wife and son making pointed challenges to the regime. That bears out the importance of the analysis by EA's Mr Verdeof the beating of Medhi Karroubi's son Ali: "Imagine for a moment that the son or daughter of a Presidential or Prime Ministerial candidate in the US or Britain had been taken away by plainclothes security forces and kept in an unknown locations for days. Imagine that he or she had been beaten and threatened with rape...."



We've posted the text of human rights lawyer Shadi Sadr’s address to the United Nations last Friday: “In addition to the numerous examples of human rights that are systematically violated…during the post-election events, basic and fundamental human rights remain in serious peril, such as equality of persons before the law, the right to peaceful assembly, the rights of political prisoners, and the rights of human rights defenders and civil society activists.” Four labour unions published a public declaration of their ten minimal demands.

Middle East: We have the full transcript of US Secretary of State Clinton's interview by Al Jazeera at the Qatar Town Hall Meeting on 15 February.

Middle East and Afghanistan: Ali Yenidunya's Inside Line picks up on the capture of the second-ranking official in the "old Taliban" of Afghanistan and on the Saudi line for action against Iran.

Middle East/Afghanistan Inside Line: Top Taliban Leader Captured?; Saudi Line on Iran Nukes

"Old Taliban" Number Two Captured? The Afghanistan Taliban's top military commander, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, has been captured in Pakistan in a joint raid by Pakistani and U.S. spy agencies, a U.S. official said. Another U.S. official said: "I would call it significant. But even when you get their leaders, they've shown an amazing resilience to bounce back. It's an adaptive organization." However, the Taliban denied the capture of Baradar and said he was still at work.

Saudi Line on Iran Nukes: Following a meeting with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said that they needed an "immediate resolution." He said:

Our talks also considered the Iranian nuclear issue. The Kingdom reiterates its support of the P-1+5 or the 1+5 group to solve the crisis peacefully through dialogue, and we call for a continuation of those efforts. We also call upon Iran to respond to these efforts to remove regional and international suspicions towards its nuclear program.

Sanctions are a long-term solution. But we see the issue in the shorter term because we are closer to the threat. We need immediate resolution rather than gradual resolution.

Iran Special: Live-Blogging Ahmadinejad Press Conference (16 February)

1439 GMT: Press TV cuts away before the last questions are asked. So here is Ahmadinejad's finally televised line: “The problems in the region is because their (the Americans') face is so ugly.”

1431 GMT: Oh, wait, one more about US intervention in Iraq. Ahmadinejad denounces American interference and says the process is up to the Iraqis. This (eventually) widens into the disappointment of Obama not bringing change, for example, with failure to close Guantanamo Bay.

1429 GMT: Ahmadinejad gets an easy question to wrap up the conference on how Iran's diplomats will counter statements such as those of Hillary Clinton. Cue more on how Iran will be strong and stand tall against a "weakening" West.

1426 GMT: Another challenge on the economy over "shadow management, but Ahmadinejad evades and the journalist does not have the persistence to follow up.

1418 GMT: A very brave man is asking about the role of the Ministry of Intelligence in the detention of journalists. Ahmadinejad claims, "No individual, no organisation has the right to arrest anyone without an arrest warrant from Judiciary, not even the Ministry of Intelligence."

The journalist persists, and Ahmadinejad tenses, "You're asking too many questions." He wanders around a bit before saying again, "We are not happy" about the detentions.

1415 GMT: Ahmadinejad now throwing out a few figures and assertions about growth in exports, employment, housing, agriculture, and industry.

1414 GMT: Ahmadinejad adds, "Where is the reply to my message (about uranium enrichment) to President Obama? Where is the outstretched hand?"



1411 GMT: Ahmadinejad declares, "Military action against Iran is out of the question," despite "Zionist efforts...to dominate the region".

1403 GMT: Back to the more mundane issue of the budget. Ahmadinejad defends the limited time given to Parliament to critique the economic plans.

The next journalist returns to the same theme about lack of information in the economic plans, and Ahmadinejad, without any substance, talks about "the most advanced form of planning".

And a 3rd journalist presses the issue on how Ahmadinejad will get information to the people. (I really can't find any way to put the President's response in a form which makes any economic sense. He's now talking about "new media" without answering the question.)

1401 GMT: Ahmadinejad still all over the shop on his 22 Bahman answer.

1357 GMT: Set-piece question on how great support of 11 February (22 Bahman) will be used by the Government to achieve its international goals. Ahmadinejad doesn't do much with the opportunity, wandering around "the power of thought" of the Islamic Revolution, "rather than money or military might" before declaring, "With tens of millions of people on the streets without any prior coordination, because people in Iran are not after what their parties say...people by themselves and they all say the same things and this affects all the equations."

1355 GMT: Platitudes on Palestine and "Zionist regime".

1350 GMT: Ahmadinejad responds to a question on Brazil with more on "three or four Governments wanting to dominate our region, and Iran is an obstacle...We are witnessing the most hilarious jokes in the course of history these days", such as the size of the US nuclear arsenal vs. their claim of Iran's "menace" because it might be able to produce one atomic bomb by 2015. "These three Western countries (US-UK-France) need to correct themselves."

1347 GMT: Question on rises in food prices. Ahmadinejad argues that the inflation rate is 12% but workers' salaries have risen more than 20%. Some individuals, such as those on fixed incomes, "might have run into problems, but in natural economics, that's what I am saying".

NEW Iran: Why The Beating of Mehdi Karroubi’s Son Matters
NEW Iran Document: The 10-Demand Declaration of 4 Labour Unions
NEW Iran Document: Shadi Sadr at the UN on Abuse, Justice, and Rights (12 February)
Latest Iran Video: US Analysis (Gary Sick) v. Overreaction (Stephens, Haass)
Iran: The IHRDC Report on Violence and Suppression of Dissent
Iran: Human Rights Watch Report on Post-Election Abuses (11 February)
The Latest from Iran (15 February): Withstanding Abuse

1342 GMT: Ahmadinejad assures, "There are no great differences between the Government and the Parliament" over the subsidy reduction bill.

1340 GMT: Question: does Ahmadinejad have any plans to deal with post-election detentions? The President repeats that he "is not happy with anyone going to jail, but there are laws in the country". And that's all he says.

1337 GMT: A young journalist dares to ask why the Central Bank of Iran recently published a claimed growth rate for 2008-9 but did not publish the 2008 figure for Gross Domestic Product (rendering any claim of economic increase useless). Ahmadinejad replies that the GDP figures are not only estimates (ignoring the fact that the figure was not even printed) and then says the growth rate was 6.9 percent (in fact, the CBI's claim was only 3.8 percent). He then assures, "Everything is transparent in Iran" before wandering into an answer which has nothing to do with the original question.

1328 GMT: I don't think this will be a tough question. An older gentleman is declaring that Iran's greatness has led others to make plots against and asking why the US Senate is threatening Iran's "great riches" with oil and petrol/gasoline sanctions. Ahmadinejad: "We have made preparations in the event of sanctions", Iran will meet its needs and turn into an exporter of gasoline, etc.

1325 GMT: Question as to how Ahmadinejad going to fill his promise that Iran will move from 17th in world economic rankings to 12th. The President says that, while other countries have experienced a drop in Gross Domestic Product, Iran continues to grow. And that's it.

1322 GMT: Line of the Day. Asked about the suspension of newspapers (some of them far from critical of the Government) by Iran's Ministry of Culture, Ahmadinejad says, "Freedom of the press in Iran is a high level." The rest of the answer is a long-winded splutter.

1313 GMT: Question on the three US citizens ("hikers") held by Iran on whether they will be released or whether their mothers will be allowed to come to Tehran to visit them.

Ahmadinejad stalls by saying that there are 3.6 million people imprisoned in America ("we feel for them, too") before getting to the point and saying the judiciary will handle the case. He would like to see them released earlier, but it depends on their crime. Then it's back to how the US has kidnapped and arrested Iranians. But "we're hopeful these problems will be removed" with both Iranians and Americans being freed.

1312 GMT: A more challenging question on how Ahmadinejad will achieve his economic goals with his budget. The President offers platitudes, "Production will be raised. The Government's goals for growth will be met. Investment will be raised."

1309 GMT: Al Jazeera English's correspondent asks (in English) for Ahmadinejad's response to Hillary Clinton's comment that Iran is "moving towards a military dictatorship". The President says, "We don't take her comments seriously" and then, more intriguingly, suggests that her comments are not shared by other "factions" in the Obama Administration.

A big clue, before Ahmadinejad flies off into Iran's greatness and denunciations of US military budget (80 times), that the President does not see Clinton as representative of US Government officials who may have a less confrontational view.

1305 GMT: The Islamic Republic News Agency journalist starts her question with "congratulations on our great aerospace achievements" and then asks about Government plans for further "success", for example, on inflation. Ahmadinejad says, "We will move to production. Overhead costs will be reduced. Banking resources will be directed in the right way", etc., etc.

1303 GMT: Rather strange side-track as Ahmadinejad claims that "West" has tried to "destroy" India and China and then re-build them and now, in its economic crisis, continues to strike at them. He then segues into the West threatening Iran but Iran stands strong, so it is "India and China and then Russia who are vulnerable".

This may be the worst attempt I've seen of trying to win over China-India-Russia to the side of Tehran.

1258 GMT: Jam-e-Jam newspaper asks about Gaza and Yemen. Ahmadinejad denounces imperialism of "occupiers" and then talks about key players like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, "representatives of Islam", in the region.

Nice move, trying to split away Arab states from the US-led effort for a bloc lined up against Iran.

1255 GMT: CNN's representative doesn't want to talk about the internal situation, however. So back to another question on the enrichment of 20 percent uranium. Ahmadinejad acknowledges the need "six months ago" with the shortage of fuel for Iran's medical research reactors and says this was eventually met by "ill will" from other powers. So Iran will proceed with its own enrichment while trying to get a swap deal.

1251 GMT: Wow. I Mean Wow.

This may be the big point from this showpiece. Ahmadinejad is fed a question about what he thinks of the attacks on his close aide, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, and that gives him the platform to come out swinging. Rahim-Mashai is "a pure and sympathetic person...with a clear logic". Those who attack him are "the ones making money".

1250 GMT: Finally a question about the post-election conflict, from Press TV, but it's only a vehicle for Ahmadinejad to bash foreigners: "How serious is Iran about reducing ties with Britain" over its interference during and after the election?

The President says that the ties aren't that important (in other words, Iran does not really want to back up its rhetoric with any meaningful step of confrontation) but repeats his criticism of Britain's bad behaviour.

1248 GMT: Reuters asks if the letter from US-Britain-France to the International Atomic Energy Agency is a "new proposal" on an uranium swap. Ahmadinejad backs off Iran's previous claim that this was a new initiative, rather than a restatement of the US-UK-France position, and says Iran is ready for a "nuclear exchange".

That's a pretty clumsy way of stalling, in line with earlier comments from Iran's Foreign Minister.

1247 GMT: Next question --- "Oh, please, Mr President, tell us more about the subsidy proposals" in the budget. Ahmadinejad says the process is "very big" and "complicated" (i.e., you're not getting any details about the proposed reductions in subsidies or how he's handling Parliament opposition), but no reason "to worry".

1345 GMT: Ahmadinejad handles 2nd question about Iran's nuclear capacity, with claims that a "new generation of centrifuges" have five times Iran's current capacity. Of course, Iran's enrichment for 20 percent uranium "has started".

1240 GMT: First question to the President, and it's not exactly a toughie: what does he think of the threat of further sanctions against Iran? Ahmadinejad says he's not worried, as this is just another sign of the demise of world capitalism and will only get those powers into "further trouble". He says Iran would prefer co-operation but will "put [these nations] to shame, as always", if they persist.

1238 GMT: Ahmadinejad concludes his prepared statement with the claim that the era of "world capitalism" is finished and "people need to join hands" for a better future.

1234 GMT: Ahmadinead still talking about the Prophets. They are great for "human dignity and resisting despotism".

1230 GMT: Now following President Ahmadinejad's live press conference. Nothing significant so far with Ahmadinejad talking generally about "prophets who come to teach mankind value and essence of humanity. Only way of salvations for mankind is submission to prophets' teachings".

The Latest from Iran (16 February): Un-Diplomatic Declarations

1955 GMT: The lawyer for 21-year-old Amir Reza Arefi says his client has been sentenced to death for "mohareb" (war against God). Arefi was arrested in April 2009, before the June election.

1945 GMT: Keeping Rafsanjani in His Box. An EA correspondent puts together an important story: with the 7th general assembly of the Assembly of Experts due next week, probably on Tuesday and Wednesday, new attacks have been launched upon Hashemi Rafsanjani, the head of the Assembly.

A statement from a number of clerics at Qom declares that, due to the performance of Hashemi Rafsanjani in the past few months, he is not suitable to continue in his post. And Fars News, criticising Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi for not returning to Iran after five months abroad, asserts that his settling in London is "strange and suspicious".

NEW Iran Special: Live-Blogging Ahmadinejad Press Conference (16 February)
NEW Iran: Why The Beating of Mehdi Karroubi’s Son Matters
NEW Iran Document: The 10-Demand Declaration of 4 Labour Unions
NEW Iran Document: Shadi Sadr at the UN on Abuse, Justice, and Rights (12 February)
Latest Iran Video: US Analysis (Gary Sick) v. Overreaction (Stephens, Haass)
Iran: The IHRDC Report on Violence and Suppression of Dissent
Iran: Human Rights Watch Report on Post-Election Abuses (11 February)
The Latest from Iran (15 February): Withstanding Abuse

1715 GMT: The Karroubi Wave. It appears that the Karroubi family --- not just Mehdi Karroubi, but the family --- are ready to propel the next wave of opposition to the Government and regime. In addition to Fatemeh Karroubi's interview (1600 GMT), Mehdi Karroubi's son Hossein has spoken out to Radio Zamaneh.


Hossein Karroubi says that his brother Ali was detained, while in the Karroubi entourage on 22 Bahman, by police and then handed to plainsclothesmen, who took him to the Amir-ol-momenin Mosque, mentioned in the letter written by his mother Fatemeh to the Supreme Leader. (The reason why Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi could make his statement that he did not issue an arrest warrant for Ali Karroubi, implying the entire story has been fabricated, is because there was none; Ali Karroubi was simply taken away.)

After his beating, Ali Karroubi was asked by police to sign a declaration that he was not abused in detention. He replied, "How can I sign such a declaration when my skull in fractured and my body is bruised?" So he wask asked to sign that he was not beaten by the police.

Hossein Karroubi says there will be no complaint lodged with the Judiciary as it no longer has power to deal with these matter; not does the Tehran Prosecutor General have any authority, or the courage, to deal with the “lebas shakhsis" (plainclothes operatives) who are operating with complete impunity.

And here's the stinger in Hossein Karroubi's tale: he argues that the plainclothes forces are supported from "very high up" (presumably meaning Ayatollah Khamenei or his office). This is why his mother wrote to the Supreme Leader, because --- as with the Kahrizak Prison scandal --- it is only he who could order a proper investigation into such matters.

More on this in an analysis on Wednesday....

1645 GMT: Releases for the Martyrs? Rahe-Sabz writes that the children of martyrs, such as Ali Motahhari (the son of Ayatollah Morteza Motahhari), have demanded release of political activists at a meeting with Iran's head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani. The report claims that Larijani declared there will be several releases, on low bail, to come.

1640 GMT: The Detention Centres of 22 Bahman. Peyke Iran reports that a former textile company near Azadi Square was used as a holding area for detainees last Thursday, keeping 20 women and 50 men before they were transported to Evin Prison. Amir-ol-momenin Mosque -- significantly the claimed location of the beating of Ali Karroubi --- was also used on 22 Bahman.

1635 GMT: The Economic Challenge. Another piece of evidence to support the pressing questions that Ahmadinejad weakly fielded at today's press conference (see 1455 GMT). The Iranian Labor News Agency says that the denial of industry minister Ali Akbar Mehrabian --- difficulties in the economy will be overcome --- will make no difference to the hardships of companies who are dying faster than they can be created: "Officials should take care today, tomorrow it will be much too late."

1625 GMT: Author and film critic Ardavan Tarakameh has been released on $30,000 bail after 50 days in detention. Mohammad Moin, the son of former Presidential candidate Mostafa Moin, has also been released on bail.

In contrast, economics professor and Mir Hossein Mousavi advisor Ali Arabmazar has not been charged after 50 days in prison.

1620 GMT: Sequel to "A Strange Shooting" (see 1235 GMT). Tabnak reports that the shooting around the car of Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, the former Speaker of Parliament, happened when security forces mistook the vehicle for one used by drug smugglers. When it failed to stop they fired warning shots in the air.

1615 GMT: Diversions. Follow-up on the Ahmadinejad press conference --- Reuters has now decided that the story is the President's hope that the case of the three arrested US citizens, detained while walking in northern Iran, may soon be resolved.

1600 GMT: The Karroubi Challenge. Following up on Mr Verde's analysis of the significance of the beating of Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali....

Fatemeh Karroubi, wife of Mehdi and mother of Ali, has told Rooz Online has spoken about the incident while declaring, “[We] will not under any circumstances back down on the rights of the Iranian people....The letter that I published a few days ago was not only for my own child, but for the children who are in prison. I wrote it with the hope that these things wouldn’t occur again.”

She recalled, “On the night that my [detained] son returned home, I was in shock and could not believe that they could say to Ali: ‘You were lucky, if you had stayed here for a couple more hours, instead of you we would be handing your corpse over [to your family].” Ali Karroubi had been forced to sign a statement saying that he would not give any interviews following his release.

Asked about the possibility of negotiating a settlement with the Government, Fatemeh Karroubi replied:

In my opinion, the interests of the country and demands and rights of the people are very important. This is not at all personal. Such a thing [a settlement] is not in any way possible....

I am stressed. But my concern and stress is neither for my husband nor for my children, but for the country, the revolution and the people of my country. Let me say this clearly, the more pressure there is, the more determined my family and I will be.

1455 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Two-Hour Stumble. The "Western" media is already reducing the President's press conference to the line-item of Tehran's defiance of the West: "Iran says it would respond to any new sanctions" (Reuters); "Iran says the world "will regret" sanctions" (BBC); "Iranian president warns against tougher sanctions" (CNN).

That's a shame, because the nuclear issue was about the only one on which Ahmadinejad was secure during his lengthy appearance. Indeed, the Government's strategy continues to be to use the negotiations with the West to show both strength and legitimacy; thus Press TV walks hand-in-hand with their Western counterparts, "Iran warns powers will 'regret' sanctions response".

The big story should be Ahmadinejad's internal difficulties. He came out fighting over the challenge to his right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, but he floundered badly on the economic issues. It is significant that the majority of questions from Iran's journalists, as opposed to foreign correspondents, were on the economy, and Ahmadinejad was close to incapable of handling challenges over Iran's economic growth, investment plans, unemployment and inflation figures, and even his budget. He was caught out at times by a lack of basic information, and at one point he simply made up a statistic for Iran's Gross Domestic Product.

Nor did Ahmadinejad, perhaps surprisingly, get away on post-election problems, despite his attempt to parade "tens of millions" of Iranians who supported him on 11 February. He evaded, weakly, a couple of questions about detentions before lamenting, "Of course we are sorry" that anyone has been arrested. Time and time again, he fell back on denunciations of the "ugly face" of the US, the regional intrigues of Western powers, and proclamations of their weakness vs. Iran's strength.

We'll watch for reactions but, for all Ahmadinejad's bluster and stamina, this does not look like the post-22 Bahman stamp of authority he was seeking.

1450 GMT: We have moved the live-blog of the Ahmadinejad press conference to a separate entry. A snap analysis follows in a few minutes.

1300 GMT: Journalist Sam Mahmoudi Sarabi has been released on $300,000 bail after 44 days in detention, 30 of which were in solitary confinement.

1235 GMT: A Strange "Shooting". We break from Mahmoud and the Prophets for an unusual story. Iranian media is reporting that shots were fired at a car carrying Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, former Speaker of Parliament, as it was travelling to Shiraz. Some official accounts say the shots were fired by mistake by the police, but the "conservative" Jahan News thinks there might have been foul play.

1210 GMT: On the Economic Front. Yesterday we noted the extensive comments of Mohammad Parsa of Iran's electricity syndicate on the difficulties in the industry, with 900,000 workers on the verge of dismissal and a Government debt of 5 billion toman ($5.06 million) to the electricity providers. Aftab News now also carries the interview.

1200 GMT: No White Smoke Update. At his press conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki limited his remarks on uranium enrichment talks to the general statement, "We have informed our Turkish friends about the latest developments on Iran's peaceful nuclear case. While we are continuing our (nuclear) activities we will consider any new idea or proposal, either given directly or indirectly via the agency (International Atomic Energy Agency)." Mottaki also downplayed Turkey's role, saying Ankara was "not a mediator but a major part in constant consultations for restoring peace and calm in the region".

So, while we cannot know if there were advances in the private Mottaki-Davutoglu talks, Tehran's public position is to stretch out the negotiations. Another sign of the low-key Iran approach is that Press TV's website still has no reference to the nuclear issue from this morning's conference.

1030 GMT: No White Smoke. Press TV's broadcast summary of the press conference of Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and his Turkish counterpart, Ahmet Davutoglu, makes no reference to uranium enrichment. There are only general platitudes about the two countries being "keys to regional stability" and the encouragement of bilateral trade relations.

0855 GMT: Mr Verde checks in with an analysis of the significance of the alleged beating of Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali.

0845 GMT: No, You're the Dictatorship. If we must continue with this story....

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has responded to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's claim that Iran is moving towards "military dictatorship" (see 0710 GMT): "They themselves are involved in a sort of military dictatorship and have practically ignored the realities and the truths in the region. America has a wrong attitude toward the issues in the Middle East and it is the continuation of their past wrong policies."

0755 GMT: A Moving Campaign. Iranian-American Youth (IAY) and Justice Through Music (JTM) will be carrying out a mobile billboard advertising campaign in Washington, D.C. today. Messages on the billboards will try to raise awareness of the internal situation and foster support for the opposition movement.

0740 GMT: Wayward Analysis. Yesterday's un-diplomatic declarations are accompanied by the superficial analysis of The New York Times this morning, "US Encounters Limits of Iran Engagement Policy". This piece builds from this episode:

Gen. James L. Jones, President Obama’s national security adviser, and Manouchehr Mottaki, the Iranian foreign minister, were in the same place at the same time, attending a high-level security conference in Munich with a number of high-ranking officials from around the world. And yet the two made no plans to meet with each other.

This is a very large herring because US-Iranian discussions would not take place between these senior advisors. (Mottaki's visit to Munich was made at the last minute and primarily so he could indicate that Iran might be open to a "swap" of uranium outside the country.) Instead, as in Geneva last autumn, talks would be held formally between the officials handling the nuclear brief or, behind the scales, between lower-level members of the diplomatic staff. The article has no recognition, for example, that quiet chats probably continue over areas of common interest such as Iraq and Afghanistan. And it never considers third-party brokers such as Turkey.

Put bluntly, The Times complements posturing such as Hillary Clinton's declaration by operating under the erroneous assumption that contacts between the US and Iran have been suspended.

0730 GMT: Top Journalism Award for Neda's Filmers. A George Polk Award, one of the top prizes in US journalism, has been given to the unnamed people who filmed the death of Neda Agha Soltan, the 26-year-old woman who died from a Basij gunshot during the 20 June demonstrations. The panel declared, "This award celebrates the fact that, in today's world, a brave bystander with a cell phone camera can use video-sharing and social networking sites to deliver news."

0725 GMT: Pressing for Rights. We have posted the text of human rights lawyer Shadi Sadr's address to the United Nations last Friday: "In addition to the numerous examples of human rights that are systematically violated...during the post-election events, basic and fundamental human rights remain in serious peril, such as equality of persons before the law, the right to peaceful assembly, the rights of political prisoners, and the rights of human rights defenders and civil society activists."

0710 GMT: With few public moves in Iran over the post-election conflict on Monday, most attention was on diplomatic diversions outside the country. Foremost amongst these was Hillary Clinton's apparently impromptu remark, at a Town Hall meeting in Qatar, that Iran was becoming a "military dictatorship".

Clinton's remark is less significant as an analysis of developments in Tehran than as a possible pointer of a shift in Washington's policy. However, if you go below the surface, there are only questions. With Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Iran today in an attempt to broker a deal on uranium enrichment (and he is unlikely to be there without the endorsement of Washington), Clinton's comment appears to be either a dissonant line or a rather clumsy attempt to warn the Iranians into accepting the bargain as well as justifying sanctions against the Republican Guard if the uranium deal is not agreed.

And there was more muddle in Tel Aviv, where the top US military commander, Admiral Mike Mullen, was discussing regional matters with Israeli counterparts and ministers. His refusal to rule out any option, while at the same time warning clearly of adverse consequences if there was an airstrike on Iran, meant that his statement could be seized by both proponents and opponents of military action. (Behind the public posture, I am almost certain that Washington has again warned Israel off any operations, but there is the possibility that the US is offering the clause, "In the future, however....")

If there was a notable setpiece on the international front on Monday, it came in Geneva, where the US, Britain, and France led the effort at the UN Human Rights Council to castigate Iran's post-election abuses. Of course, Tehran responded --- through Iranian High Council for Human Rights SecretaryGeneral Mohammad Javad Larijani --- that all was well and Iran was advancing social rights for groups like women and children. The episode indicated, however, that Washington and its allies will match any "engagement" with public pressure, and not only on the nuclear issue.

Inside Iran, the more important tension was over President Ahmadinejad's economic plans. The high-profile political challenge of the "conservatives" was complemented by a series of statements from members of Parliament criticising part or all of the Ahmadinejad budget. No signs yet that the conservatives will return to their more dramatic confrontation over the post-elections abuses, calling for the head of Ahmadinejad aide Saeed Mortazavi, but it is evident that the President's 22 Bahman performance has not quelled opposition.

Outside the establishment, Monday was notable for signs of labour activism. While a report of planned civil disobedience by the Tehran Bus Workers Union turned out to be untrue, the union joined three others in putting forth a public statement of ten demands (see separate entry).