Rick Santorum & Mitt RomneyIf Rick Santorum beats Mitt Romney in Michigan on 28 February, then is the social conservative from Pennsylvania the Republican nominee? Probably. But this also raises the possibility that Republicans will turn to an alternative.
Rick Santorum had a breakthrough night Tuesday, winning GOP presidential contests in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado, all of which is expected to breathe life into his struggling campaign and slow Mitt Romney’s march to the Republican presidential nomination.
The Santorum triumphs promise to, at least temporarily, alter the face of the campaign going into the crucial “Super Tuesday” contests, as the caustic tone of the primaries is expected to continue and intensify. Romney and his allies have signaled that they will use their financial advantage to launch stepped-up attacks on Santorum and on former House speaker Newt Gingrich, the other main challenger.
Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick SantorumNewt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul will not admit it, as anything hinting at a defeatist attitude is a death-knell in American politics, but they hope to force a brokered convention. In that scenario, if Romney does not get the 50% of delegates he requires on the first ballot, the State delegates who were pledged to him can switch their support to another candidate.
Some "back of a napkin" mental arithmetic illustrates this reasoning.
I spoke yesterday with BBC West Midlands about Mitt Romney's win in the Republican primary in Florida. Is the victory decisive for the nomination? (Almost certainly.) Why did Mitt rise and Newt Gingrich fall in the Sunshine State? And what is it about these unusual names for candidates? (Though I guess Mitt is better than Romney's given name...Willard.)
The discussion starts at 2:20.25.
FLORIDA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: MITT ROMNEY 771,842 (46.4%); NEWT GINGRICH 531,294 (31.9%); RICK SANTORUM 222,248 (13.4%); RON PAUL 116,776 (7.0%); OTHER 21,538 (1.3%)
Bolstered by superior resources and a relentlessly aggressive style, Mitt Romney won a decisive victory in the Florida primary Tuesday night, dealing a major setback to principal rival Newt Gingrich while putting himself back into a commanding position in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.
Romney’s win came after a bitter and almost wholly negative campaign by both leading candidates. The victory, his second of the year to go along with two defeats, gives the former Massachusetts governor much-needed momentum as the GOP contest moves west for Saturday’s Nevada caucuses. Romney is strongly favored to repeat his 2008 victory there.
Only 120 miles of interstate highway I-95, cutting through Newt Gingrich's home state of Georgia, separate South Carolina and Florida, but those 120 miles could be vital in the ex-Speaker's crusade to be the next President of the United States.
The emphasis is on "could". After Gingrich's stunning victory in Saturday's vote in South Carolina, and with eight days before the primary in Florida, no one can claim with any authority to know what is going to take place in the Sunshine State --- or the consequences of the outcome.
Consider one piece of political wisdom widely cited after Gingrich's weekend triumph. Florida has an electoral system that allows easy access to early voting, and even before the South Carolina contest was resolved, around 30% of Floridians are estimated to have cast an absentee ballot. That would seem to favour Mitt Romney, as he held a healthy lead in Florida polls for some time, and his campaign machine has been encouraging his supporters to use the early voting option.
See also US Elections Analysis: A 4-Point Guide to Gingrich's South Carolina Victory
US Elections Opinion: Loving the Razzle-Dazzle, Hating the Soft-Money Campaign
US Elections Analysis: How Protests Over Campaign Finance and Ron Paul Could Change The Race
I spoke with BBC Radio 5 Live this morning about Newt Gingrich's victory in the Republican primary in South Carolina, raising some of the points that I made in an analysis for EA.
How did Newt triumph in South Carolina, despite the revelations about his three marriages? Can he build on this win and overtake front-runner Mitt Romney? And what does this mean for the Republican challenge to President Obama in November?
The item starts at the 2:06.28 mark, with my comments beginning at 2:07.58.
Campaign finance reform would need to be the central plank of any third-party run. However, when you have judges in Montana and Occupiers outside the Supreme Court, you may have the issue that can unite Americans who feel that the two political parties are ignoring their concerns.
Will Ron Paul now seize the campaign finance reform issue in a Presidential run as an Independent candidate?
Rick Santorum (Adam Hunger, Reuters)Whether Rick Santorum and his supporters acknowledge it or not, their ideology is authoritarian, just not as dictatorial as the Hobbesian model. A child tax credit is a perfectly defensible proposition --- and Santorum would triple it --- but at heart it is the taking of property from some people to give to other people in the name of morality and the common good.
A Fading Candidate: Newt Gingrich1. The Republican contest is probably already down to two candidates: Mitt Romney v. Anyone Not Named Mitt.
2. Rick Santorum, in a victory of timing, got to be "Anyone Not Named Mitt" yesterday, with previous "Anyones" --- Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich --- fading to the point of departure without a surprise boost in the next few weeks.
3. Even with a limited share of the vote, this is good news for Romney. Iowa, with its distinction as town-meeting caucuses rather than a primary in the voting booth, usually throws up surprise victors --- anyone remember Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee in 2008? The challenge for a front-runner is to avoid embarrassment, and Romney has accomplished that.
Monday, February 20, 2012 at 7:12