Israel-Palestine Analysis: Netanyahu Manoeuvres with US & Egypt to Put PA in a Corner

UPDATE 1030 GMT: Juan Cole has posted a complementary analysis, beginning with the Palestinian Authority's position, "Abbas: Israeli Colonization Impedes Start of Direct Talks".

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is talking about bringing the Palestinians on the table for direct talks. But how?

It is reported that, following consultations with some of his ministers, Netanyahu is thinking of announcing an end to Israel Defense Force operations in a number of Palestinian cities in the West Bank. Haaretz reports, from "senior officials", other confidence-building measures:

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- Israel will enable the Palestinian police to broaden its activities beyond Area A, which is under PA security control. They would be allowed to set up six new police stations in Area B, where the PA is currently responsible only for civilian affairs, and possibly also have some authority over civilian matters in Area C.

- Israel will lift more road blocks in the West Bank.

- Israel will transfer to Palestinian control a portion of land that is currently in Area C, under full Israeli control, in order to build a road connecting Ramallah and a new city currently in the planning stage, Rawabi.

With the Palestinian Authority under pressure from the Obama Administration to start the direct talks with Israel, Netanyahu is wisely trying to corner the PA and also other possible actors such as the Egyptian Government. PA leader Mahmoud Abbas rejected Obama's approach to change his mind, but Netanyahu, at his cabinet meeting on Sunday, stated that he planned to meet President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt on Tuesday to discuss how progress in negotiations can be achieved.

What is the benefit for Egypt? At a time when channels of dialogue are open with Hamas to some extent, following the Freedom Flotilla crisis, Cairo can use this initiative to push for Hamas flexibility in a Palestinian reconciliation agreement. It can boost its regional and domestic credibility by playing the role of second mediator between Ramallah and West Jerusalem.

Asked in an interview with Fox News whether there can be a Palestinian state by 2012 (a follow-up Palestinian leader Salam Fayyad's "A Palestinian State by 2011" statement), Netanyahu said:

I think there can be a solution. It may be implemented over time, because time is an important factor of getting the solution, both in terms of security arrangements and other things that would be difficult if they're not allowed to take place over time.

Can we have a negotiated peace? Yes. Can it be implemented by 2012? I think it's going to take longer than that.

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Amalthia to Break the Siege?: Having Youssef Sawani, executive director of the Gaddafi International Charity and Development Foundation, said Sunday in an interview with Army Radio that the vessel was heading for Gaza; Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman told Army Radio that “no ship of any kind will be allowed to arrive at Gaza.”

The ship is still in high waters and Israeli defense officials stated that they were tracking the vessel and would make contact with the ship and request that it follow naval vessels either into Ashdod Port or into Egypt's port of El-Arish. A government official said: “This exercise is both a superfluous and unnecessary gesture.”

Ireland's "Revenge"?: It is reported that Ireland is trying to block a European Union initiative that would enable Israeli companies and European companies to exchange information about customers. The European Commission wanted European governments to approve a declaration that the EU recognises Israeli data protection standards as being sufficient to allow member states to transfer personal data.

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However, Ireland's Justice Minister Dermott Ahern said that since Israel allegedly used forged Irish passports to carry out the assassination of Hamas official Mohammed al-Mabhouh in Dubai, Israel should not be allowed access to this data.

Although Israel denied any link with the Dubai assassination, Ireland expelled one Israeli official from Dublin.

Mavi Marmara Waiting Its Fate: Israeli city Haifa's Mayor Yona Yahav wrote a letter to the Defense Minister Ehud Barak requesting that the Mavi Marmara ship be turned into a floating hotel off the coast of Haifa. Yahav wrote: "I feel that Haifa, a symbol of coexistence and cooperation between all religions, would be the appropriate home for this ship, which will turn into an international symbol of reconciliation and hope."

Israel-US Analysis: Netanyahu Wins --- 1, 2, 3, 4 Times --- in Talks With Obama (Yenidunya)

Finally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has had his meeting with Barack Obama, an encounter described by the US President as "excellent".

Both leaders pointed to four main topics in their private talks, but the most striking note in Obama's speech was his emphasis on "Israel's security", mentioned eight times, crowned by "the U.S.'s unwavering commitment to Israel's security" and an underlining of the "unbreakable bonds" between two countries.

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First of all, there was Gaza. Obama did not criticise Israel's misconduct over the clash with the Freedom Flotilla. He did not mention West Jerusalem's pursuit of an internal enquiry, defying calls for an impartial, international investigation. But he did praise Israel's "real progress" with the widening of the list of goods permitted entry into Gaza.

Secondly, the "Iranian threat". Both leaders praised national and international sanctions. Then, Netanyahu added the title "the biggest threat" to Tehran and called on all those in the United Nations to increase the effectiveness of the sanctions, especially on the energy sector.

Thirdly, Israel's nuclear arsenals. Although nearly 200 signatories of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), including the US, agreed in May to work towards a nuclear-weapons-free zone in the Middle East, Obama stated that there is no change in U.S. policy on West Jerusalem's officially undeclared stockpile of nuclear arms:  "Israel has unique security requirements!"

Lastly, the talks with the Palestinian Authority. Obama's agenda is crystal-clear: both sides will present confidence-building measures. Included in this is a messsage to the Palestinians not to make any demand for a freeze on construction of Israeli settlements in the West Bank,  as this will lead to "more room created by more trust".

Then, the parties will move to direct talks. The precedent has been set by this week's  meetingin Jerusalem between Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and the Palestinian Authority's Salam Fayyad. In that meeting, Fayyad asked for more space and duties for a Palestinian security force, consolidating the Palestinian Authority's legitimacy. Obama offered support:

Abu Mazen [Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas], working with Fayyad, has done some very significant things when it comes to the security front.  And so us being able to widen the scope of their responsibilities in the West Bank is something that I think would be very meaningful to the Palestinian people.

Obama, when asked if  there would be an extension of the construction freeze in the West Bank, merely stated that parties should engage in direct talks so that they can trust each other through confidence-building measures.

It is both interesting and unusual that Washington expects Ramallah to be "more pragmatic"over West Bank settlements  while presuming that this will have no effect in its legitimacy, both in the eyes of its rivals and of its people.

The one explanation that might account for this American position is that both Israel and the Palestinian Authority have already agreed in principle to a proposal for a swap of land for 2.3 percent of the West Bank, Israel's sovereignty over the Western Wall and the Jewish Quarter of the Old City, and East Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state. With that deal in the pockets of neogtiators, direct talks will be brief and the parties can go to a final stage of discussions.

Is it really that easy? Or did Benjamin Netanyahu just post some big victories --- 1, 2, 3, and 4 --- on the lawn of the White House?

Palestine Analysis: Assessing Direct Talks between Israel & the Palestinian Authority

On Monday, Palestinian Authority leader Salam Fayyad and Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak met for the first high-level talks since the US began "proximity" negotiations.

Starting at the top of his agenda, Fayyad asked Barak to allow more space and duties to Palestinian forces in the West Bank so the foundations and legitimacy of a future Palestinian state are not damaged through perpetual Israeli operations.

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Fayyad then urged Barak to lift Israel blockade and, according to newspapers, both men talked about how the situation in East Jerusalem could be improved. However, nothing has been revealed about any discussion on the settlements in the West Bank.

"Quick resolution of both issues is very important in order for there to begin to develop a sense of a state in the making," said Fayyad. He added that Barak had promised that the issues raised, among them Israeli actions in East Jerusalem, would "be seriously studied and there will be specific and clear answers to all the issues that were discussed".

The two men also agreed to maintain a direct line of communication between their offices “to increase coordination and provide a response on issues that require direct and rapid contact between the sides”.

If the encounter's primary concern was consolidation of the Palestinian Authority's legitimacy, then here are those who are not happy with this meeting:

Hamas condemned the meeting as “disgraceful” for Fayyad's Fatah Party and “offensive” to the Palestinians. “This meeting marks the beginning of direct negotiations [between the PA and Israel] and is being held on instructions from the US administration,” said Fawzi Barhoum, a Hamas spokesman in Gaza City. “This meeting shows that [PA President] Mahmoud Abbas is lying to his people when he says he’s opposed to direct negotiations with Israel.”

The Islamic Jihad organization accused Fayyad of “washing Barak’s hands from the blood of the flotilla victims and Palestinians” and added:

This meeting [between Fayyad and Barak] is in the context of the agenda that Fayyad is implementing and which has nothing to do with the interests of the Palestinian people. The claim that they discussed the siege on the Gaza Strip is only aimed at misleading our people. The man who perpetrated the piracy crime against the ships cannot lift the siege.

The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine declared the meeting was unjustified and called on PA officials to refrain from talking to Israelis. The group said:

Is this meeting being held to pave the way for the resumption of direct talks [between Israel and the PA]? Or is it aimed at making Netanyahu’s visit to Washington successful?

The Ahrar (Free) Movement said that the meeting between Fayyad and Barak was in the context of ongoing security cooperation between the two sides and continued:

The Ramallah government [headed by Fayyad] is still insisting on serving as Israel’s security agent.

Israel Snap Analysis: Defense Minister Barak's Win-Win Strategy?

On Sunday, Isrraeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer had heated argument  during a Labor Party meeting.

Barak's associates  said he had opposed the secret meeting between Ben-Eliezer and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Zurich and told Prime Minister Netanyahu as much, though he ultimately decided not to veto the mission. Ben-Eliezer was angry with Barak cause he is accusing Barak of leaking information of the meeting with Turks. He allegedly told Barak's media spokesman, Barak Seri, "I'll skewer you. I am Iraqi. You don't know who are dealing with."

If it is true that it was the Defense Minsitry leaking the meeting to media --- and not the Foreign Minsitry of Avigdor Lieberman, as was initally reported --- then what is on Barak's mind? Is this a win-win strategy: if Netanyahu is not capable of dealing with Lieberman, then Barak takes over while if the Prime Minister succeeds, Barak grabs a portion as Lieberman leaves the coalition?