The Latest from Iran (11 June): Waiting, Watching, and Wondering

2140 GMT: Tonight's Allahu Akbars (God is Great):

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jvu1nHTROVw[/youtube]

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Mousavi-Karroubi Press Conference
NEW Iran Analysis: The Green Movement and The Lesson of 51 Pegasi B (Shahryar)
NEW Iran Reaction: Mysteries Beyond the Mousavi-Karroubi Statement
NEW Iran Feature: Why the Green Movement is Important (Dissected News)
Iran Urgent: Mousavi-Karroubi Statement on 22 Khordaad Protest (10 June)
Iran Interview: Ahmad Batebi “People’s Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge and Information”
Iran Document: Karroubi “In the End, the Wiser Ones Will Take Over Iran” (9 June)
The Latest from Iran (10 June): Mousavi-Karroubi Withdraw Request to March

2130 GMT: Karroubi Challenges Supreme Leader? Agence France Presse lifts one provocative sentence from the video of Mehdi Karroubi's joint press conference with Mir Hossein Mousavi, with Karroubi singling out Ayatollah Khamenei (without naming him) in the 2009 Presidential election: "There will be no results if he doesn't approve. Is this a republic?"

2120 GMT: Football, Rights, and Protest. A convergence today as activists used the opening of football's World Cup to put out a message of support for human rights and political prisoners such as human rights lawyer Mohammad Oliyaifard and Behrouz Tehrani.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6daHJnqQaI[/youtube]

2115 GMT: Rahnavard "We are Going Forward". Zahra Rahnavard, academic, activist, and wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, has given an interview to The Guardian of London. She summarises:

This movement started with the simple question: "Where is my vote?" But because the response was violence and bullets and repression from the ruling regime, the situation entered another phase which was completely unpredictable. People's demands have changed so now there are more fundamental questions and more intensive criticism of the regime. The Islamic republic has deviated from its path and goals.

We are still pursuing our ideals of 30 years ago. But the current government is the result of an electoral coup d'etat. The Green movement has not been defeated at all. It is going forward.

Rahnavard adds, "[The] movement is not looking for the support of foreign governments at all and wants to stands on its own."

2110 GMT: 22 Khordaad --- 83 Cities and Counting. That's the number of locations around the world for rallies on 12 June, the anniversary of the election. Full details and a map finder are available at 12June.org.

2100 GMT: The Mousavi-Karroubi Press Conference Emerges. Back from a break to find, thanks to an EA reader, the link to the video of the gathering with opposition websites held by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi at the start of this week. It is in Persian, of course, but given its potential importance, we have posted it in a separate entry.

1530 GMT: Tehran Friday Prayers Summary. "Substitute Friday Prayers leader" Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami (Substitute?! Was the first-choice religious striker injured? Or has former President Hashemi Rafsanjani begged off sick again?) lines up for his best shot at goal.

Unfortunately, it's a pretty tame effort: "The world should think of an independent organization and security council which would not be dominated by the imperial powers". The UN sanctions resolution on Iran's nuclear programme stinks. The US, which faces internal and external problems, will find this adds to "the crisis of disgrace".

Khatami, trying to match the record of Iran's best-known international (R Khomeini),  then asked the audience if they happened to notice that the US is a Great Satan.

The cleric did show a nice couple of nice touches with this query, made against the global run of play (see 1415 GMT): “Now judge for yourself: Is powerful Iran, which is present everywhere on earth, isolated, or it is you, who are alone, and your few puppet states?”

Then, however, it was back to another predictable passage of play: "savage attack" of the Zionist regime on the Freedom Flotilla, US kidnaps Iranian scientist Shahram Amiri by the US and Saudi Arabia, “I hope a freedom caravan with an aim of breaking the siege of Gaza will start moving and Iran will abide by its historical duty in the way.”

So a pretty tepid 0-0 draw. Then again, this was just the curtain-raiser for a more important game tomorrow.

1415 GMT: International Smackdown for Iran? If this story plays out as predicted here by Agence France Presse, this is a signficant blow, delivered by Moscow and Beijing amongst others, to the Iranian Government:

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), where Russia and China call the shots, gathered Friday to consider changes to its membership guidelines which could lead to further expansion for the bloc.

At its annual gathering in the Uzbek capital Tashkent, leaders including Russia's Dmitry Medvedev and China's Hu Jintao were expected to adopt new guidelines seen as potentially opening the door to SCO observer nations India and Pakistan.....

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the guidelines to be approved Friday would not allow countries under UN sanctions to obtain membership, a major blow to Iran who sorely needs international support.

Iran is currently an "observer" nation in the SCO.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said he had cancelled his appearance at the meeting, ostensibly his change of mind was a protest against Russian and Chinese support for UN sanctions. However, The Russian newspaper Kommersant, citing diplomatic sources, is claiming that Ahmadinejad had wanted an invitation to the event, but Russia, China, and Kazakhstan had "politely denied" it.

1330 GMT: Polite Intimidation. Rah-e-Sabz claims that Iranians are receiving the following text message from the Ministry of Intelligence: "Dear citizens, You have been deceived and foreign media to do their work. If you repeat this action, you will be punished under Islamic law."

1310 GMT: One Year On. CNN has a snapshot of the opposition, based on interviews with four Iranians, two inside the country and two now abroad. This comment from "Azadeh", a bank teller in Iran, stands out:

"There is fear. I can't say I'm not scared, but you still have to go out -- because that's what the government wants, for you to be afraid and not continue. But we have to."

1305 GMT: We welcome back Josh Shahryar as an EA correspondent with his analysis on the significance of the Green Movement.

1300 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Human rights activist and journalist Narges Mohammad has been arrested by security forces during a late-night raid on her home.

Mohammad is the Vice President of the Defenders of Human Rights Center and President of the executive committee of the National Peace Council.

0915 GMT: Spreading the Word. A new website, Access Now, has been launched, featuring a "Global Proxy Cloud" to help computer users get to the information they want.

0910 GMT: Looking Back. Tehran Bureau features the recollection of Farhod Family of a year ago, just before and after the Presidential election: "Tehran had done a complete 180 in less than 24 hours. A cheerful country had turned violent in disgust."

0905 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Islamic scholar Ahmad Ghabel has been released on bail of more than $500,000, almost six months after his arrest.

Ghabel, a student of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, was arrested on 20 December while travelling to Qom for Montazeri's funeral.

0900 GMT: 4 June Fall-Out. Another cleric denounces the uproar at last week's ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini and comments on the heckling of the Ayatollah's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini: Hojatoleslam Hossein Ebrahimi said the "events have caused sorrow for all".

0855 GMT: Larijani's Latest Move. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, manoeuvring for position against President Ahmadinejad as well as the "opposition", has pronounced, The Supreme Leader is there to show the right way. Those who don't understand must not be excluded."

An EA correspondent comments, "Those who don't understand? I still wonder whom Larijani means: clerics, Mousavi and Karroubi, Ahmadinejad...or all of them?"

0840 GMT: PsyWars. A sign of strength, a sign of worry, or just a big bluff?

General Hassan Firouzabadi, the head of Iran's armed forces, has announced that a Psychological Operations Command will be established for 12 June. At the same time, he announced that victory had already been achieved over the opposition: “The unity of the conspirators has been disrupted thanks to the events of the 4th and 5th June, and public alertness. [Mir Hossein] Mousavi has been trapped in cyberspace created by the US, Britain, the Zionist regime and counter-revolutionaries, is moving towards destruction. The reformist sheikh [a reference to Mehdi Karoubi] too has been isolated in the dreams of the green movement.”

The Command, it appears, is neceesary because, in Firouzabadi's words, “The Freedom Movement is still the leader of the US position and is the instigator of the conspiracy inside the country as it tries to perpetuate the situation while revolutionary students and politicians are aware of their ways. Moderate reformers are gradually moving towards the regime and the Imam’s line and their new policy is to work within the regime.”

0740 GMT: Crystal Balls. Lots of "One Year On" pieces today, many of them making sweeping and often weakly-supported claims --- The Opposition is Strong, The Opposition is Dead, the Regime is Weak, the Regime is Powerful.

The most curious article comes from The Washington Post, which manages to be both horribly deceptive and insightful in the space of a single article. The headline writers --- as they have done before --- distort Thomas Erdbrink's reporting, "A Year after Its Rise, Iranian Protest Movement Stymied and in Disarray".

In the final paragraphs, however, Erdbrink --- who continues to operate out of Tehran despite regime pressure --- slides in this important revelation:

"Because everybody is in charge, the movement can continue," said Ali Shakorirad, a former member of parliament and leading member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, which was recently declared illegal by the judiciary.

He said the opposition is playing a waiting game, exploiting the weaknesses of the government, which he asserted is less powerful than it appears. The opposition's inactivity, he said, has caused those advocating radical change to lose interest, which he considers a positive development.

"Ahmadinejad is making increasingly more blunders, so our first objective -- getting rid of him -- is looking more probable by the day," Shakorirad said. "When that is reached, the next step is free elections."

0730 GMT: Reading Mousavi-Karroubi. An EA correspondent checks in with a comment on the statement, "I think they had no other choice. People in Tehran told me they made the right decision because of the prospect of violence."

0720 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad has had a look at the Shanghai Expo in China. Despite reports that he has cancelled an appearance at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting because of dissatisfaction at Chinese and Russian support of this week's UN resolution on sanctions, Ahmadinejad said, "The two great nations of Iran and China, who are the owners of the most ancient civilizations of human beings, can stay together to make this dream come true."

0655 GMT: Less than 24 hours before 22 Khordaad, the anniversary of the 2009 Presidential election, we offer two analyses: Dissected News posts a useful reminder to the media, "Why the Green Movement is Important", and Scott Lucas evaluates mysteries beyond yesterday's statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

Meanwhile....

Ebadi's Message of Support

Nobel Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi has put out a video message for 22 Khordaad. An English version is promised soon.

Revelation or Disinformation?

The Guardian of London features a dramatic article, "Former Elite Officers Reveal Tensions in Iran Regime", based on interviews with four "former members of the Revolutionary Guard...who have fled Iran and are in hiding in Turkey and Thailand".

The article claims:

• Deep divisions within the Revolutionary Guard, the powerful military organisation at the heart of the Iranian state, which have widened since last year's repression of the so-called green opposition.

• Firsthand accounts of the measures taken to crush the popular protests that erupted in the wake of last June's presidential elections. The men interviewed describe the widespread use of rape and torture by the regime.

• A ruling elite so unsettled by the uprising that it had a plane on standby ready to fly the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, to Syria at a moment's notice.

I'm refraining from any judgement at this point --- the allegations match up with Internet chatter that goes back to last autumn. I have no doubt, based on other information, about the second claim regarding abuse of detainees, but the first and third assertions circulated without any support.

The Challenge from Iran's Youth

The US Institute for Peace has released a report, "Iran's Youth: The Protests Are Not Over": "Iran has the most politically active youth among the 57 nations of the Islamic world. As the most restive segment of their society, Iranian youth also represent one of the greatest long-term threats to the current form of theocratic rule."

Iran Document: Karroubi "In the End, the Wiser Ones Will Take Over Iran" (9 June)

Mehdi Karroubi's interview with Rooz Online, published 9 June and translated by Khordaad 88:

Mr Karroubi, you have said before that you expected after Imam Khomeini’s death you will become more isolated by some individuals , who are these individuals ? and Why?

There was difference of opinion and approach among the forces and factions [at that time] . In other words , some had different interpretations of Islam, state and the Islamic republic [than us]. Since these factions were more close to centers of power=;, their views and opinions were more likely to be implemented.

Which groups?

Political groups like Motalefeh Party, Association of Clergy, Association of Religious Teachers. We had differences of opinion that led to discussions and arguments between us. These differences revolved around issues such as , taxation, municipal land, and other issues that were important at the time. However, Imam Khomeini’s support for us or our ideas would set them back. They had also come to understand that Imam preferred our opinions over theirs despite the fact that he had respect for them and he would appoint some of their important members to the Guardian Council.



These differences led to formation of the Expediency Discernment Council . As Dr. Mehrpour mentioned [once], if the Guardian Council had adopted a more open policy toward various issues and would consider Imam Khomeini’s warning, the Expediency Council would not have been formed. But we knew after Imam’s death , those groups will increase their power and presence, and we will become more isolated. And this is what has happened. Using their power through the Special Clerical Court, the Guardian Council and individuals that I do not want to name isolated the Imam’s Path forces.

Are the individuals that you prefer not to name the same people that you have referred to previously and said: “They could not tolerate a party office or newspaper”, “They want [to take control of ] the government to satisfy their own interests", “They engaged in fraudulent activity after the death of Imam Khomeini"?  Who are these people?

They are the same people who run the country now. In the judiciary they are those who order newspapers and offices closed. They are in the Ministry of Intelligence....They are in Basij, IRGC [Islamic Revolution Guards Corps], and among the Friday Prayer Imams. I should also mention that the traditional conservative forces with whom we were friends before despite our many differences have also to various degrees supported these people. Unfortunately, now an entirely new group of people with Ahmadinejad on top and others in lower ranks are leading [the country].

[Previously] you talked about the boat of the state that does not have capacity for 70 million people. In this turbulent sea of politics, is there a chance that this boat will reach the shore safely?

It is obvious that a boat does not have much capacity to manoeuvre even in calm waters. The sea needs a giant ship. And when the sea turns stormy and turbulent , 70 million people should be present to safely guide the ship to the shore. Therefore I think the current situation will not last [for long] and we are eventually forced to return to reforms although we will have to pay the costs.

What do you think the most important issues of the country are?

Losing the trust of the nation, militarizing the society, and deviating from the ideals of the revolution [are the most important issues we face today]. We have reduced ourselves to such a low level that we treat the family of Imam Khomeini with such disrespect [a reference to the treatment of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, at the 4 June ceremony for his grandfather's death]. They dare tell Mr. Jamarani, who has been organizing ceremonies on this day for Imam for 20 years, to stop organizing the ceremony this year.

Do we have to witness changing the mood of the society to one of fear where tight security and control is imposed every day? Do we have to see forces armed with anti-riot shields march our streets every day? Nothing will work like this. The government should create security not constrain it. The way the authorities define "security’"seems very different [than what it should be]. Despite all, I believe this situation would not last; in the end the wiser ones will take over.

Everyone’s talking about the necessity to reexamine the Constitution. Where do you see the source of the problems in the Constitution? What should be done?

Every constitution has its own faults. I have said this many times. There is only one book without mistakes, and that’s the holy book, Quran. As Muslims we believe in that. It is possible that a non-Muslim becomes critical of Quran. [No book is perfect, and] it is for this very reason that Imam [Khomeini] allowed the possibility to reexamine the constitution. It is a common practice in the whole world to change the laws according to the most recent conditions and needs of the day. However, even if this constitution is acted upon [in our society], many of our problems would be resolved.

According to the existing constitution, the head of the judiciary is chosen by Supreme Leader. Does this process interfere with the independence of the judiciary branch? Do you not see any contradictions in this process?

At the time, those who created this process did the right thing. But right now we are degrading this law with our actions. Keep in mind that this process was not always like this, and later changed to become as such. Early on, five people constituted the leadership of the judiciary branch. Two of them were chosen by the Supreme Leader and three of them were chosen by a group of judges in a free and competitive election process. The problem right now is that the judiciary branch cannot act on its own and is taken over by the security officials.

What is the main demand of the Green Movement, and what can it be?

This movement that manifests itself through calm, nonviolent protests that takes the form of civil disobedience is created out of the insult and dissatisfaction that resulted from different elections.

Which elections?

The 7th and 8th parliamentary elections and the 9th and 10th Presidential elections. All the dissatisfactions piled up until it exploded after the 10th Presidential elections. This movement is originates from the hearts of people; it is a self-evolving movement. It is a movement that was created over the structure of force that the authorities created for people.

What are you after in this movement?

We are looking to see the full enactment of the Constitution: that we can have a free and sound election,and benefit from free political parties and newspapers; that students are free [to express what they want]. What we are looking for is that no one chooses the destiny of people for them. Accordingly, I believe that if even the current Constitution is enacted, despite the criticisms, many solutions would unfold. But unfortunately, some even don’t abide by this law. Those in power right now act despotically out of their own interests.

To achieve victory, how should the Green Movement move on from here? Wouldn’t the current process gradually degrade the movement? What must be done? What can be done?

Discontent and defiance in the nation will continue. Though people are more conservative in expressing their discontent, they are just waiting for the right moment to express themselves. This does not weaken the movement but the government. With regards to ways that the movement can proceed: first, people’s presence is the most important and critical thing for this movement or any other movement. Second, the movement cannot be after instant success; what comes easily goes just as easily.

The movement must be lively, it must reach out to people and strengthen its grass-root support. The gentlemen are presenting an untrue depiction of this movement to the public. They say this movement is against your religion and culture. They are publicizing this movement as a threat to national security and claim it will bring about a similar situation in Iran as is present in Iraq and Afghanistan. We must fight off these false publicized accusations while spreading our own messages to widest possible audience.

We are after security, peace, and calm for the country. We are loyal to this country. We are fighting dictatorship and fascism. We want to establish the rule of law. Thus evangelizing, organizing, and staying in touch with each other are important. The government is quite sensitive to these activities as it has confronted them in many occasions. This is a great testament to the effectiveness of these activities. So, despite what they might say, I don’t think the movement is diminishing,-; it is in fact growing.

What did Mehdi Karroubi think of the future in 1989 and how does that compare to the way events have been rolling out?

We thought the revolution would bring about mutual respect for every person and her/his ideas and rights. We wanted the revolution to bring about equality and respect for Islam. But that did not happen.

In those days, people were in with the government, they knew everything that was going on. That’s because we realized our legitimacy came from people’s approval. We wanted to be a role model and a leader in the world and tried hard to reach these goals. Of course some of the blame lies with us and some with others.

The fact of the matter is that in the beginning of the revolution, there were some violent struggles. Parts of the country stated independence and invaded central government’s military bases. Azarbayejan, Gonbad, Khozestan, and Kordestan were amongst those regions. The late Mr. Taleghani and Mr. Foroohar traveled to these regions to speak to the people and try to resolve the conflicts. After that, assassinations of the country’s intellectuals and leaders started: Martyrs Motahari, Beheshti, Ghazi, Tabatabaie, Mofateh, and many others.

In those day, secret shared homes were created by the armed militants and violent confrontations started taking shape. The war against Iraq started as these conflicts were still ongoing. When the presidential headquarters and political party headquarters of a country are blown up by internal anti government militants, it is obvious that the country is headed towards radicalism. In any case, they didn’t make it possible to achieve the goals that we had; we missed the chance. In those years, after the bombings, we had the worst situation in the Parliament. Government officials were under pressure by the war, internal conflicts and assassinations, and the country’s management…. These were difficult times. Those who created the internal conflicts did a great injustice to this country.

On the Israel-Palestine issue: If two countries reach an agreement,  what would be your position?

We might have an ideal position in our mind, but we should realize that Palestine belongs to Palestinians, so if they reached an agreement that they find pleasing, we should congratulate them.

Iran is facing detrimental quandaries in its foreign policy, if you were in charge what policy would you adopt regarding the following issues: the US?

I believe that,with the exception of Israel, we should have relationship with all other countries. Despite everything that has happened between Iran and United States, I think we should reestablish the relations without neglecting Iran’s dignity and independence. Unfortunately Iran-US relations have become a domestic political discussion in Iran. When one side agrees to normalizing relations , another side opposes and vice versa . It has become an internal quarrel between different streams.

Relations with China and Russia?

We have normal relations with both countries now, and I agree that we should. I travelled to both countries when I was head of the parliament numerous times in order to expand our political and economical relations. Russia is our neighbour, therefore we should maintain our relations. I should mention though that states only seek their own interests in relations with other states. Having relations with another country should be based on benefits [that we seek].

Nuclear issue?

We should become more transparent We should negotiate, we should defend our rights, but we should also make [our intention and conduct] more transparent.

The human rights file?

The human rights are those rights that belong to all people. These rights are undermined today in many countries. For example, in Palestine, these rights are completely ignored by the Israelis. In our country too, on some issues these rights are undermined. We must not abuse human rights like a political tool.

What I believe is that we cannot take human right issues very seriously for one country, and then ignore them completely for another one. One obvious example of the latter is the human rights issue in the conflict between Israel and Palestine.

If we divide the history of Islamic Republic into different periods, from Mr. Karroubi’s perspective, which period would be closest to the ideals of the Islamic Revolution and which period was the furthest from them?

Naturally every revolution is closest to its ideals at the very early state. I have said this many times. In every revolution, radical moves and abrupt reactions break out due to inexperience and immaturity. I can say this confidently: most of those who act radically now are those who acted in a radical way back then. The first decade was one of ideals. We gradually entered a different atmosphere that concluded in what we see right now. I believe the worst conditions are what we have right now.

And last question: What is your greatest wish today?

I wish for governance of people, denial of outsiders’ interference, and insiders’ despotism. I wish for health and prosperity of this nation, for the greatness of Iran, development of our country. I wish for rise of pride for Islam and enactment of its rules. I don’t believe in imposing our perspectives; I don’t mean interfering with private lives of people. What I mean by wishing enactment of rules is enactment of ethics in the society, enactment of justice, and keeping the dignity and respect of people.

The Latest from Iran (9 June): Paying Attention

2030 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that the head of Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign in Babolsar has been arrested.

2000 GMT: A Friendly Notice. To all journalists riding the two-dimensional bandwagon on Twitter & Iran, treating cliches like "Twitter Revolution" as if they were the core of meaningful analysis, I'm not going to respond for the moment --- this is a made-up dramatic revelation, which recurs every few months and does not get to the heart of what social media has meant in the post-election crisis. Best to let it serve as tomorrow's chip paper.

But if you keep it up, I may change my mind....

1900 GMT: Mahmoud Snaps Back. President Ahmadinejad, who has had post-election encounters with dust (read his "victory speech") and insects (see video), worked both into his response to the UN sanctions resolution: "These (U.N.) resolutions have no value...They are like a used handkerchief that should be thrown in the dust bin. Sanctions are falling on us from the left and the right. For us they are the same as pesky flies....We have patience and we will endure throughout all of this."

NEW Latest Iran Video: Obama Statement on Sanctions...and Rights (9 June)
NEW Iran Analysis: What’s Most Important Today? (Hint: Not Sanctions)
NEW Iran Analysis: 4 June “The Day the Regime Will Regret” (Verde)
Iran Election Anniversary Special: The Power of the “Gradual”
Iran Special Report:The Attack on Civil Society (Arseh Sevom)
The Latest from Iran (8 June): Tremors and Falsehoods

1855 GMT: Back to 22 Khordaad. BBC Persian reports on the increased security presence on the streets of Tehran on the eve of 12 June,the anniversary of the election.


1725 GMT: President Obama has just made a statement about Iran in the aftermath of the UN vote on sanctions. We've posted the video.

Here's the quick read: Obama proclaimed that the sanctions were the "most comprehensive" Iran has faced, said that the UN resolution sent an "unmistakeable message", and spent most of the rest of the time justifying the position on sanctions in connection with his policy of "engagement": "We recognize Iran's rights, but with those rights come responsibilities. Time and again the Iranian Government has failed to meet those responsibilities."

Then, in one of the eight minutes of the statement, having declared,"These sanctions are not directed at the Iranian people," Obama switched from nukes to rights. He noted this Saturday's anniversary of the election, "an event that should have been remembered for how the Iranian people participated with remarkable enthusiasm but will instead be remembered for how the Iranian Government brutally suppressed dissent and murdered the innocent, including a young woman [Neda Agha Soltan] left to die in the street".

It was a bit awkward for the President to link back to uranium and sanctions, and he did not help by throwing in the spectre of Tehran's War of Terror --- "Actions do have consequences. And today the Iranian Government will face some of those consequences. Because whether it is threatening the Nuclear Non-Proliferation regime or the rights of its own citizens or the stability of its own neighbors by supporting terrorism, the Iranian Government continues to demonstrate that its unjust actions are a threat to justice everywhere".

However, at least for one moment, "Iran" was seen in more than the one-dimensional image of a nuclear weapon.

1720 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani's office has released a letter which, in the eyes of Deutsche Welle, criticises the Supreme Leader's silence over President Ahmadinejad and implicitly acknowledges fraud in the 2009 election.

1620 GMT: Sanctions. The UN Security Council has voted 12-2, with 1 abstention, for new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme.

The relatively limited measures include restrictions on transactions with Iranian banks, asset freezes on Iranian individuals and companies, and an expanded arms embargo on items such as attack helicopters and missiles.

Turkey and Brazil, who recently signed an agreement with Iran on procedure for talks over uranium enrichment, were the two countries who voted against the resolution. Lebanon abstained.

1605 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Al Arabiya has just published an interview from May with Mehdi Karroubi. Topics covered include the rise of the Green Movement, party politics, accusations of prison abuse and torture, Government mismanagement, and Ahmadinejad's foreign policy. Karroubi also offered this in anticipation of 22 Khordaad (12 June), the anniversary of the election:

We promise and give assurances that no incident will occur. I am certain that if a march is held, paramilitary forces will attempt to turn it violent, but our people are wise, and politically mature enough that even if certain individuals come chanting radical slogans, the people have the ability to control the scenario and confront them. However, if authorisation is not granted for demonstrations, we will then decide what to do; but it is currently not possible to say much.

1545 GMT: On the International Front (Mahmoud Stays Home). On Monday, Iranian state media were trumpeting that their internationally-esteemed President would be showing his strength, in the face of Western pressure, by going to the Shanghai Expo in China.

Today, Agence France Presse says that Ahmadinejad plans to stay away from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting to snub Russia and China for supporting the US-backed sanctions resolution in the United Nations.

1120 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amnesty International has launched a new campaign, "One Year On: Stop Unfair Trials". Cases include journalists Abolfazl Abedini Nasr, Hengameh Shahidi, Emaduddin Baghi, Shiva Nazar Ahari and Ahmad Zeidabadi, student activists Majid Tavakoli and Mohammad Amin Valian, and Zia Nabavi of the Council to Defend the Right to Education.

1015 GMT: The Nuclear Discussions. A piece of news that slipped under the media radar....

The International Atomic Energy Agency has announced that it has received replies from France, Russia, and the US to the Iran-Brazil-Turkey declaration on procedure for uranium enrichment talks.

No details were given beyond the note, "Attached to each of the letters was an identical paper entitled ‘Concerns about the Joint Declaration Conveyed by Iran to the IAEA’."

That, however, indicates co-ordination between the three governments. And the timing of the IAEA's statement, together with the lack of substance, indicates that it is happy to let the news be overtaken by today's sanctions vote in the UN.

0955 GMT: Reflecting on The Year. Journalist Masih Alinejad has offered her recollections and analysis in an extended video interview with Voice of America Persian.

0935 GMT: A Signal for the Week? Hamshahri features the colourful cover identifying the bad guys in "Sedition '88".

0930 GMT: Intimidation of Kurdistan Businesses? Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that, following a general strike on 9 May to protest executions, members of bazaars across Kurdistan have been summoned and threatened by government authorities and the businesses of others have been sealed.

0800 GMT: What is the Green Movement? An interesting interview with Fatemeh Sadeghi, a former professor at Tehran University, who argues that the Green Movement is not the opposition of the "secular" against the "religious".

0750 GMT: The Post-Election Abuses. Abdul Ruholamini has resurfaced to declare that those responsible for the abuse and killing of detainees in Kahrizak Prison must "pay for their deeds".

Ruholamini, the campaign manager for Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, is the father of Mohsen Ruholamini, who died in Kahrizak last summer. The case was instrumental in bringing the abuses to light and pressing the Supreme Leader to close Kahrizak. Ruholamini had gone farther in public statements at the start of 2010, declaring that high-ranking officials must take responsibility for the crimes, but had been silent in recent months.

Ruholamini may have been prompted to his statement by the news that the trial of 12 people over the Kahrizak case has finished behind closed doors.

0745 GMT: The Events of 4 June. Another perspective, complementing that of EA's Mr Verde, on last Friday's developments at the ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini comes from Hamid Farokhnia in Tehran Bureau.

Tehran Bureau also features a review by Muhammad Sahimi, "The Green Movement at One Year".

0740 GMT: Parliament v. President (and Supreme Leader). It seems that Ayatollah Khamenei's intervention --- calling for Parliament-Ahmadinejad co-operation and threatening the Majlis with new "oversight" --- may not have been an overwhelming success.

Key MP Ahmad Tavakoli, an ally of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, has commented in Khabar Online that the Constitution is written for people to cooperate, not to fight. So far, so good for the Supreme Leader.

But then Tavakoli re-asserts, "The Government has no right not to implement the laws from the Majlis."

0715 GMT: On a day when "Iran news", for most non-Iranian media, may be dominated by the passage of the US-led sanctions resolution in the UN Security Council, we set out priorities with two analyses: Scott Lucas declares, "What's Important Today? (Hint: Not Sanctions), and Mr Verde looks at "4 June: A Day the Regime Will Regret".

One US outlet shares our attention to the internal: Newsweek notes last Friday's events, with the shout-down of Seyed Hassan Khomeini, under the (over-blown) headline, "Iran's Hushed-Up Civil War":

For his part, Supreme Leader Khamenei did little damage control, even though he has worked hard to present a united front for Iran’s leadership, knowing that discord suggests vulnerability. He took the stage after Khomeini and asked the crowd to act in a more appropriate manner. But that was it. No defense of Khomeini and no rebuke to the crowd. With the anniversary of the contested election just days away now, Khamenei has been trying to manage a delicate balancing act between quieting and frightening the opposition—and sending mixed messages in the process.

In another warm-up for 12 June, the anniversary of the election, Zahra Rahnavard gives an interview to the Italian paper La Republicca. Beyond general criticism of the Government and the declaration, "I hope to shed the last drop of my blood in the cause of freedom and democracy," she focuses on key issues:

The demands of the women in Iran are twofold: 1) National demands such as freedom, democracy, the rule of the law, freedom of political prisoners, right to individual freedoms; 2) Elimination of discrimination and strengthening of cultural rights, women's rights and equal rights under the law.

....Democracy is not possible without women and without paying attention to the demands of women.

Iran Analysis: 4 June "The Day the Regime Will Regret" (Verde)

Mr Verde writes for EA:

When the history of this post-election conflict is written, the events of Friday, 4 June 2010, may be as significant as last year’s Qods Day and Ashura. They may be even more important.

The regime is trying to pretend that there is no crisis of confidence/legitimacy and that the post-election protests are over. But last Friday, at what was supposed to be the commemoration of Ayatollah Khomeini's death, President Ahmadinejad was still talking about last year’s elections and the Supreme Leader was still threatening former (and possibly even current) regime officials –-- this time with execution. Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Ayatollah, was shouted down during his speech.

Events like the 4 June commemorations are planned well in advance, tightly controlled, and well-choreographed. We can therefore dismiss with great confidence any suggestion that the hecklers were ordinary people acting in the moment. They were thugs organized by regime officials.

Whatever the true intentions of the organizers,these events have and will continue to damage Ayatollah Khamenei. The reason?

There are two possibilities: either the thugs were organized on the order of Khamenei, or the heckling was carried out without his permission.

If Khamenei was kept out of the loop, then he is losing his grip on the Islamic Republic. When a group of regime thugs can barrack Hassan Khomeini with impunity right in front of the Supreme Leader and the world media, when Khamenei cannot even control his audience for a few minutes during an important ceremony. how can one expect him to have control over the actions of other regime officials? (Which, looking backward, raises the question: how can the Supreme Leader claim so confidently that there was no fraud during the June 2009 elections?)

If the thugs were carrying out Khamenei’s orders, then the Islamic Republic is gripped by such a dangerous crisis that its highest official is forced to sacrifice the reputation of his regime in an attempt to embarrass and humiliate another regime insider. If this is the case, then Khamenei’s warm embrace of Hassan Khomeini after the latter’s abandoned speech also points to the nasty, duplicitous personality of the Supreme Leader.

In either case, the events of 4 June have provided a rallying point for Khamenei’s detractors within the regime –-- whose numbers, by the way, seem to be growing by the week. It not only Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, but alsoother reformists and even principlists like Ali Motahari have used these events as an excuse to criticise Khamenei personally.

If the intention of the regime's show on 4 June was to weaken the opponents of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, the scheme appears to have backfired.

One may argue that the Supreme Leader is trying to wipe out any reference to Ayatollah Khomeini and replace Khomeini’s legacy with his own. The problem is that, since last June, Khamenei’s reputation as a religious and political leader has been damaged. He has not been able to make repairs and all high-profile regime manoeuvres, including last Friday, have brought more damage.

Let’s not forget that the June ceremonies were cut back from 3 days to 1 day this year; despite all the preparations the numbers attending were far less than what he regime had claimed and hoped for; 15 Khordaad (5 June), the day which marks the beginning of the uprising in the 1960s that eventually led to the 1979 Revolution, was completely forgotten this year.

Ayatollah Khomeini is the main pillar of the Islamic Republic. The regime owes its existence to him, and all of its officials claim his approval for their ideas and actions. doing. His burial site, where the 4 June ceremonies were taking place, is similar to the shrines of Shia Imams. The failure of regime officials to capitalise on this --– and by their actions disrespecting his memory –-- points to serious problems within the Islamic Republic.

In February, I mentioned that, because of the crisis in the Islamic Republic, the regime will be forced into display that will come back and haunt them. Add the events of 4 June to that growing list.

The Latest from Iran (8 June): Tremors and Falsehoods

2000 GMT: The Rooftop Allahu Akbars Are Back. Claimed video of tonight in west Tehran, with residents shouting "God is Great":

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NriBVuN3og&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

NEW Iran Election Anniversary Special: The Power of the “Gradual”
NEW Iran Special Report:The Attack on Civil Society (Arseh Sevom)
Iran Analysis: The Unexpected Fight Over “Khomeini”
Iran Analysis: One Year After the Election (Shafaee)
Iran Feature: Music and Resistance (Fathi)
The Latest from Iran (7 June): Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting

1955 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Masoud Nourmohammadi, detained since 20 January, has been sentenced to three years in prison for "assembly and collusion against national security". His brother, reformist activist Saeed Nourmohammadi, is serving a one-year prison sentence, with five years suspended, and a 30-year ban on political activity.


1935 GMT: 22 Khordaad. Still waiting for video to surface of today's press conference by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. Those present included Advar News, Jaras, Norooz, Saham News, Green Voice of Freedom, Tahavole Sabz, Kalameh, Emrooz, and Mizan.

Meanwhile, Rah-e-Sabz clarifies the latest developments on the requests to march on 12 June. The number of reformist groups seeking permits has risen from 8 to 10.  Two parties have already been rejected, while the rest --- meeting a request from the Ministry of Interior for more information --- have said the protest will "be a silent one, with no one carrying any arms. There will be no statement read out and no speech made." Demonstrators will "carry signs asking for free elections and using green as their symbol".

1920 GMT: Parliament v. President (cont.). The most intriguing move, however, comes from "principlist" MP Ali Motahari. Having been warned for saying that the disturbance at last Friday's ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini was due in part to the President's election, Motahari said that he would welcome his removal from the party. He declared that this would prepare the ground for the establishment of an independent faction composed of moderate reformists and principlists.

1915 GMT: Parliament v. President. A number of intriguing developments in the conflict between the Majlis and the President....

BBC Persian reports that the Supreme Leader has stepped in, calling for more oversight of the work of Parliament but also seeking more collaboration between the Majlis and Ahmadinejad.

A number of MPs have criticised Ahmadinejad's latest power play. Farhad Tajari, deputy chief of the Majlis legal commission, condemned the President’s letter to the Guardian Council questioning the legitimacy of a number of Parliament's bills, and Seyed Reza Akrami maintained that only the Guardian Council can declare Parliamentary measures illegal. Abbas Rejai, the head of Parliament’s agricultural commission, said that as the Guardian Council has approved all legislation in his area, no one can question its validity.

The Parliament also blamed the office of the President for releasing Ahmadinejad's letter, which bore a confidential stamp, with “all its blatant legal equivocations”.

1910 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kouhyar Goudarzi, member of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, has been sentenced to one year in prison.

1740 GMT: Ahmadinejad "All OK. Nothing to See. Move Along." Amidst his rhetoric about the nuclear issue and Israel, President Ahmadinejad did take time today in Turkey to make a passing comment on his own country.

So let it be noted --- because all media hell is going to break loose tomorrow when the UN Security Council adopts a sanctions resolution and the Iranian Government responds, three days ahead of the election anniversary, with defiance and its honourable defence of the country's sovereignty against foreigners --- that Ahmadinejad said:

The Islamic Republic is one of the most stable countries of the world because its foundations are set in the hearts of every single Iranian....People hold the elections, supervise it and participate in it.

1625 GMT: The Complexities Within. Dissected News offers an interesting overview of the tensions not only within the Green Movement but also within the Iranian establishment.

1610 GMT: Jailing the Journalists. Reporters Without Borders posts a lengthy summary of the represssion of journalists in Iran. Some basic statistics:

* At least 170 journalists and bloggers, including 32 women, have been arrested in the past year.

*22 of them have sentenced to jail terms totalling 135 years.

*85 journalists are awaiting trial or sentencing.

* More than 100 journalists have been forced to flee the country.

*23 newspapers have been shut down and thousands of web pages have been blocked.

*With 37 journalists and bloggers currently held, Iran is one of the world’s four biggest prisons for the media, alongside Cuba, Eritrea and North Korea.

1605 GMT: In the Category of Totally Unexpected News. Kalemeh, the website of Mir Hossein Mousavi, is complaining that the Ministry of Interior is stalling over requests for permits to demonstrate on 12 June, the anniversary of the election.

The Ministry has turned down two applications from reformist parties but has asked six other groups for more information.

1345 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Student activist Behzad Bagheri was arrested on Saturday in Isfahan.

1315 GMT: From the Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi:

Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi held a joint press conference today on the eve of one year anniversary of rigged presidential election (June 12) and answered to the questions of reporters from all over the world. Details of this press conference as well as the video of it will be published soon.

1300 GMT: I have posted an analysis, for the anniversary of Iran's election, assessing the significance of events that have happened and events to come: "The Power of the Gradual".

The decision to post the piece, which is a draft introduction to a new book, was spurred in part because of my frustration and sorrow at a set of high-profile analyses in Foreign Policy magazine which I think misrepresent the dynamic of post-election developments, especially with respect to information in and out of Iran.

In that context, I have just noted two other, very different reflections. Human rights activist Ahmad Batebi gives a lengthy interview in which he assesses, "People's Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge & Information". And Kathy Riordan interviews an activist, "Michi", on the influence of social media in this post-election crisis: "People in many countries outside Iran have established bonds with the Iranian people. Stereotypes and misunderstandings have been stripped away."

1215 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reports have come in that journalist Zhila Bani Yaghoub has been sentenced to one year in prison and has banned for 30 years from reporting. Her husband, journalist Bahman Amoui, is already serving a five-year sentence in Evin Prison.

1010 GMT: American Detainees. Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast has said Tehran has no plans to swap three Americans jailed last summer in Iran on spying charges for Iranians held in the Unites States.

The website Free the Hikers offers the latest on the detainees, arrested after walking --- inadvertently, they claim --- across the Iraq-Iran border.

0940 GMT: Evading the Attacks. Writing in The New York Times, Jo Becker illustrates how the state-owned Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines evades sanctions through the re-flagging and renaming of ships:

Of the 123 Irisl ships listed [by the US Government], only 46 are still clearly owned by Irisl or its United States-listed subsidiaries, according to an analysis of data from IHS Fairplay, formerly Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay, based in Britain, which issues large merchant vessels their unique identifying numbers and tracks them over their lifetime. Four more were scuttled.

The rest — 73 — are now on record as owned and operated by companies that do not appear on the blacklist. The companies are located far from Iran, in places like Malta, Hong Kong, Cyprus, Germany and the Isle of Man. In all but 10 instances, however, records and interviews established definitive links between the ships’ new registered owners and Irisl.

0725 GMT: 22 Khordaad. The website 12june.org is now listing 68 cities planning events on 12 June for the anniversary of the Presidential election.

0654 GMT: Video of Day. Short and to the point --- "22 Khordaad" (12 June) is inscribed on a railing:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIugT-rfCIA[/youtube]

0650 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad is in Turkey, putting the emphasis on foreign affairs. He has told a crowd in Istanbul that last week's raid on the Freedom Flotilla was the "death knell" for the "Zionist regime". He also said the recent Iran-Brazil-Turkey declaration on Tehran's uranium enrichment is the last chance for an agreement on the issue.

0645 GMT: Women's Rights Corner. Ayatollah Abdolnabi Namazi, the leader of Friday Prayers in Kashan has explained that televising women pariticipating in sports is forbidden.

0635 GMT: The Khomeini Fall-Out. Ayatollah Dastgheib, condemning the attack on Hassan Khomeini, asserts that the "only way out" out of the current predicament is the return of Mir Hossein Mousavi to the political scene with the assurance that he will not be threatened.

0555 GMT: We begin the morning with a special report from a new NGO, Arseh Sevom (Third Sphere), "Attacks on Civil Society in Iran, 2005-2010".

Meanwhile, in the current civil society, there are more signs of nervousness as the regime is still trying to deal with the aftermath of the ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini, that went wrong last Friday and the uncertainty of the election's anniversary (22 Khordaad/12 June) approaches:

A New Anti-Government Coalition?

A sharp poke at Ahmadinejad, in the guise of analysis from Khabar Online, the website connected with Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani: it claims that even a significant number of "hardliners" have joined the reformists in opposition

The analysis projects that "moderate reformists" have a small chance to gain influence within two or three years and advises that hardliners should put themselves in four groups to discuss change, including "idealists", "pragmatists", and those taking the Government line.

Parliament v. President

The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has declared that the Parliament should help the judiciary to correct and update laws.

Hmm.... Could Sadegh be taking sides in the evolving dispute between his brother Ali and President Ahmadinejad? After all, it is Ali Larijani and other MPs who are complaining that the Government is implementing "incorrect" measures.

There's the prospect of more pressure on the President, with the claim that the results of an investigation into undocumented spending during Ahmadinejad's Government will be published soon.

"Dorough Online" (Lie Online)

That is new name given to Iran's media by Green Voice of Freedom, which is claiming a "new record" of at least three big lies per day handed down to the Iranian people. Unsurprisingly, Green Voice is offering examples from the ongoing presentation of last Friday's shout-down of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini.

More Dorough....

The "hard-line" Kayhan, according to the Green site Rah-e-Sabz, is betraying its nervousness with a series of allegations, inventing foreign supporters, mysterious editors, and a headquarters in London for the opposition publication.

Political Prisoner Watch

Fereshteh Ghazi's posts an interview with the father of Amir Javadifar, who died in detention after he was arrested on 9 July. As Iran holds another court session, ostensibly to punish those who carried out abuses at Kahrizak Prison, Javadifar's father says, "We demand those who gave the orders at Kahrizak to be sentenced."