Iran Result: The 22 Khordaad Cup "Greens 1, Darks 0" (Lucas)

There was a moment yesterday when the two big events of my day --- 22 Khordad, the anniversary of Iran's 2009 President election, and the England v. USA match in football's World Cup --- intersected.

Moments after I had seen video of defiant Iranians shouting Allahu Akbar (God is Great) from their rooftops, England's goalkeeper Robert Green --- sickeningly from an English point of view, wonderfully if you were supporting the ex-colonists --- fumbled an American shot into his own net.

Iran Analysis: 22 Khordaad — What Happened and What It Means (Shahryar)
Latest Iran Video: Protests of 22 Khordaad (12 June)
Iran: Not Forgetting 22 Khordaad “The Day We Chose to Live” (Pedestrian)
The Latest from Iran (12 June): 22 Khordaad

It took seconds for an observer to send out the connection, "Iran's Green has had a much better day than England's Green".

And, as  England the US eventually drew ("tied" if you're a Yank) 1-1,  another scoreflash: "Iran 1 (Regime own goal), Darks 0".



The morning after 22 Khordad, a narrow victory for the Iranian opposition in the latest game in a perpetual contest seems about right.

That outcome was not evident, however, as late as mid-afternoon. Many in the "Western" media, who generally had a terrible day with their Iran coverage --- a notable exception was CNN, whose Reza Sayah would be outstanding in his ability to bring in significant news from Tehran sources --- had declared victory for the Iranian regime, even before the opening whistle. (Some reporters, bizarrely, continued to do so at the end of 22 Khordaad, ignoring all the action to pronounce a "day that passed quietly.)

As of mid-afternoon, there had been little public movement. The headline of the "official" withdrawal of the request to march by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi carried over, with the only glimpse of demonstration coming in reports that there had been a protest at Tehran's Sharif University. Even the presence of the Iranian state was muted: there seemed to be few uniformed forces and plainclothes Basiji militia in the streets.

However, EA had gotten one piece of news from a correspondent that suggested there might be a change. From a reliable source in Iran, we learned that marchers in Tabriz would be coming out at 5:30 p.m. local time (1400 GMT).

Then, via a valuable source on Twitter (yes, the same Twitter that has been a punching bag all week for those trying to grab easy conclusions and headlines about the meaning of this year in Iran), we learned that demonstrators in Mashaad and Shiraz would be trying to assemble at the same time.

And then the reports from Tehran: students were assembling at Tehran University. Security forces were trying to block them from exiting the campus; however, other groups of protesters were moving across central Tehran in an effort to meet them. There were chants and clashes at Enghelab Square and Vali-e Asr Avenue.

For the next few hours, those reports spiralled to the point of confirmation. There had been scattered demonstrations throughout the centre of the city. Thousands (how many thousands?) --- despite all the Government intimidation, the threats of imprisonment and beating, the State media's denunciation of the foreign-supported fitna sedition, and even the withdrawal of the official sanction by Mousavi and Karroubi for the march --- had shown up.

Pieces came together. Students, some of whom had examinations on the day, had not appeared until their academic duty was done. Workers had waited to complete their jobs for the day. And one EA correspondent

Of course, some perspective is needed here. As on all occasions since last June, the security forces of the regime had prevented a mass gathering. This would not be millions or even tens of thousands in a single place, as there had been three days after the election. There would be no dramatic appearance by a Mousavi or a Karroubi or, perhaps needless to say, a Hashemi Rafsanjani.

But on this day, for this game, there did not need to be tens of thousands in one place. No "star" had to show for victory. All it needed was the thousands who had emerged.

Because "victory" on 22 Khordaad would simply be some public glimpse of protest. This was the mirror image of 22 Bahman (11 February), the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution and the last attempt at a mass demonstration. Then the bar of expectation was quite high and the outcome was disappointment. Now the bar was disappointment and the outcome, as day turned into night, went higher and higher over that challenge.

As an Iranian observer put it cogently, "Even one protester on the streets --- given all the threat and cost of being there --- is a small sign that Green lives."

And as another posted on a discussion forum, "“I came back safe. Today I truly realized that we are countless. Today was great. It was better than we expected. (Let us revive our slogan of ‘We Are Countless!)”

Now, those supporting the Iranian Government are going to respond --- indeed, some did prematurely yesterday, before the developments of the late evening and afternoon --- that these scattered gatherings do not constitute anything more than the shadow of a challenge. They will contend that the Green Movement's supporters will grasp at any straw to prove they are still in the game. They will disregard the numerous reports and even the glimpses that managed to get out of Iran despite all the regime's efforts at blackout. They may even try the line that, "well, at my particular spot in Tehran at one particular moment" --- even though there was the protests were never going to be in that spot, indeed when that particular moment was before the gatherings arose --- "I did not see anything".

Their points should be noted. So should these....

1. This was just the public tip of discontent, anger, and hope.

The reason that I am so hostile to the easy media line that the opposition/Green Movement was over/dead/mortally wounded is that EA, on a daily basis, has information about the disquiet over the Iranian Government and, in cases, the system. Usually, that discontent turns into a sullen resentment or a quiet, sometimes desperate wish that the situation will improve.

The private protest may not become public because organisation is difficult, with many activists imprisoned or abroad. It may be "silent" because a shout-out could lead to a loss of job, threats to a family, years behind bars.

But intimidation is not victory for the Government. And even the limited jump of private concern to public dissent is enough to stave off defeat.

2. The public dissent yesterday was "new" in this crisis in that it did not take place on a day already scheduled for commemoration (Tehran Friday Prayers, Qods Day, National Students Day, Ashura) by the regime. This protest had to make its own occasion.

And, to repeat, it did so despite the withdrawal of any "leadership" in the form of official sanction from an opposition figure.

In the immediate aftermath of the news that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi that they would not press for a permit to demonstrate --- and the implicit follow-on that they would be at home on 22 Khordad --- some concluded that this was a disappointing retreat.

Now, whether Mousavi and Karroubi foresaw developments or whether they anticipated them, their step leads to another conclusion: people took up Mousavi's call to show their dissent "by other means". No leader's call was necessary. No seal of approval had to be given before the moment.

That lesson now applies for each and every day beyond 22 Khordaad.

3. Almost as significant yesterday as the show of protest was the absence of the Government.

On the anniversary of his election, his supposed triumph over the "dust and tumbleweeds" who opposed him, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was not on view. The Supreme Leader, who had rubber-stamped that triumph, issued no reflections or commands. The Revolutionary Guard did not make public threats or give public affirmations for their purported political masters.

There were some photos of Ahmadinejad on state TV, some derogatory references to Mousavi. Press TV put out its counter-narrative on the death of Neda Agha Soltan, "proving" foreign manipulation, "The Real Fake".

But this morning, the headline of the Islamic Republic News Agency has Ahmadinejad ignoring internal matters and pronouncing on the nuclear issue. Fars News? Not a single high-profile word on the state of Iran and the authority of Iran's State over its people.

A key political question --- perhaps the key political question --- for this last 12 months has been whether the Government would establish its legitimacy in the wake of the disputed election. And nothing yesterday pointed to that legitimacy.

4. A quick glance at the calendar is useful. For four months, there was no significant occasion on which to hang an opposition protest: no regime event to seize, no day with an obvious "hook" for demonstration.

Now the anniversaries come quickly: 48 hours from now is 25 Khordaad, which a year ago saw millions on the streets to challenge the election. Then it is 30 Khordaad, the day of last year's mass gathering which ended with defiance and the creation of martyrs like Neda Agha Soltan. Next month, there will be remembrances of other marches and other deaths.

The overriding question, as we put 12 June 2010 into the record book, may be this:

Did anyone think on 12 June 2009 that this political match in Iran would still be contested?

The Latest from Iran (12 June): 22 Khordaad

2130 GMT: International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran reports that a heavy security presence in Mashaad prevented significant protest, with 10 people arrested.

2100 GMT: MediaWatch. The darkly humourous mis-reporting of the Associated Press (see 1840 GMT) of a "quiet day" in Iran --- an EA correspondent asked, "Did the reporter actually leave his room today?" --- is becoming a serious case of false "news". Both MSNBC and the Jerusalem Post are recycling the despatch as the definitive account of events.

To make matters worse, the BBC seems to have taken a pass on looking for news today, settling for a bland "we're not sure but this is what others say": "Iranian security forces have reportedly clashed with groups of people trying to mark the anniversary of the disputed presidential election in Tehran. Opposition groups say confrontations began in the evening as people left work and gathered in different areas."

That would not be so bad if the BBC had not left unaltered the wayward conclusion made by their correspondent at the start of the day: "The opposition seem to have run out of ideas and many Iranians are now reduced to sullen acquiescence."

*A sharp contrast is offered by Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post. Having written an exaggerated account of the Green Movement's demise on 11 February, Erdbrink puts forth measured optimism for the opposition today:

"There were so many plainclothes officers, that we didn't know who was with us or who against us," a protester said. "But people were not afraid at all, which must be worrying for the government."

Even though the demonstrations were far smaller and the atmosphere generally calmer than in the post-election protests last year, the fact that people decided to go out was remarkable, analysts said.

NEW Iran Analysis: 22 Khordaad — What Happened and What It Means (Shahryar)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Protests of 22 Khordaad (12 June)
NEW Iran: Not Forgetting 22 Khordaad “The Day We Chose to Live” (Pedestrian)
Latest Iran Video: The Mousavi-Karroubi Press Conference
Iran Analysis: The Green Movement and The Lesson of 51 Pegasi B (Shahryar)
Iran Reaction: Mysteries Beyond the Mousavi-Karroubi Statement
Iran Feature: Why the Green Movement is Important (Dissected News)
The Latest from Iran (11 June): Waiting, Watching, and Wondering

1940 GMT: As we near the end of the day, we've posted an analysis by Josh Shahryar, "22 Khordaad: What Happened and What It Means".

And don't forget to check out our set of videos from the day.

1840 GMT: Oh, Dear. Ali Akbar Dareini of the Associated Press --- posting only one hour ago --- summarises the day: "The one-year anniversary of Iran's disputed election passed quietly Saturday with little more than a subdued Internet appeal by opposition leaders for supporters to speak out on the Web against government repression."

To which I am afraid I will have to defer to a Twitter observer: "What were you smoking?"

1830 GMT: A RAHANA reporter claims that special forces threw rock and stones at fleeing people in Enghelab Square.

1750 GMT: An Iranian activist reports, "People move alongside cars showing V [for Victory] signs."

1645 GMT: Comment of Day? A protester reports on Balatarin, "I came back safe. Today I truly realized that we are countless. Today was great. It was better than we expected. (Let us revive our slogan of 'We Are Countless!)'"

1615 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Abdolreza Tajik, journalist, human rights activist, and member of the National-Religious Front, was arrested today for the third time in the past year.

1550 GMT: The Dangers of Premature Conclusion. Lindsey Hilsum of Britain's Channel 4, an excellent reporter, moves far too quickly to her keyboard this afternoon, posting 30 minutes ago: "The streets of Tehran are almost deserted today, it seems, apart from clusters of riot police and basij militia on motorbikes."

1538 GMT: We're counting at least 21 arrests so far: 12 in Enghelab Avenue, 6 near Tehran University, and 3 in Vali-e Asr Square.

Green Voice of Freedom claims about 1000 students protested at Tehran University.

1535 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Davoud Roshani, a member of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been arrested.

1520 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN is reporting from a source that tear gas was used to disperse crowds at Vali-e Asr Square.

A crowd chanted "Ya Hosein Mir Hosein" at Enghelab and Palestine Avenues before being chased away by security forces.

1510 GMT: The Green website Rah-e-Sabz has finally posted a report on the "security atmosphere" in several Iranian cities today.

1430 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reports that student Kamran Asa, brother of the slain protester Kianoush Asa,  and Hamidreza and Ashkan Moseybian have been freed on bail.

1410 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN, from a source, "Police block off westbound Revolution [Enghelab] Ave towards Azadi Square."

1405 GMT: Radio Farda has now posted a summary of the clashes and gathering crowds in central Tehran.

1355 GMT: Human Rights Activists News Agency are reporting at least 10 people detained, with security forces using tear gas and baton, in Tehran clashes.

1345 GMT: Several witnesses have told Radio Farda about scattered clashes between people and security forces around Enghelab Square.

1335 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN reports three arrested, "blindfolded and taken away on motorcycles", in clashes at Vali-e Asr Square in Tehran. Growing crowds on sidewalks are being chased away.

1325 GMT: We've posted video of a protest at Sharif University in Tehran.

1320 GMT: There are indications that, in addition to Shiraz (see 1220 GMT), there will be protests in Tabriz & Mashaad at 5:30 p.m. local time (1400 GMT).

1315 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN: " 1000s of riot police in all major squares and intersections Tajrish, 7 Tir, Revolution [Enghelab] Avenue." Mehdi Sharakiz adds, "Enghelab is full of both people and guards. All book stores are closed." He adds that all streets to Enghelab are blocked.

Sayah adds, "Many Basij and security forces waiting in local schools and mosques."

1300 GMT: Clamping Down. Earlier today we noted that former Vice President Massoumeh Ebtekar had blogged about the disruption at the 4 June ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini, ""This is another sign...that indicates a serious rift and distancing with the original line and thought of Imam Khomeini, now led by a minority that wills to cling to power by any means possible." (see 0545 GMT)

The sequel is that, according to Parleman News, Ebtekar's blog has now been filtered by Iranian authorities.

1245 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN: "Riot police out in force. 100s lining Azadi Avenue from Azadi Square to Revolution [Enghelab] Square."

1240 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN reports from sources: "Packs of riot police roaming Azadi Ave. Basij waiting in mosque at Kaj Square".

An Iranian activist claims, "Plainclothes on their motorbikes are wandering and shouting 'Death to the traitors; to scare people."

1225 GMT: There is a lot of chatter about build-up of people around Tehran University (which would correspond with end of today's examinations) as well as attempts to gather at Vanak Square and chatting at Enghelab Square. There are also unconfirmed reports of students surrounded by security forces at Sharif University. We are monitoring before treating as confirmed.

1220 GMT: EA has absolutely reliable information from Iran that the protest in Shiraz is scheduled to begin at 5:30 p.m. lcoal time (1400 GMT).

1200 GMT: A hat-tip to Abigail Fielding-Smith of The Independent of London: she posts testimony from "a selection of grass-roots activists", some in Iran, some who have fled, and summarises:

"Although some show signs of despair, they are determined to find new ways of keeping up their opposition. It is difficult to say how representative their voices are. With heavy reporting restrictions inside Iran, and many people afraid to communicate with foreign journalists, it is hard to gauge public opinion accurately.

Many who took part in the protests have lost interest in demonstrating, either because they fear the repercussions or because they lack faith in the movement's ability to change anything. The forces ranged against it are formidable: the might of the security establishment; the continuing, albeit weakened, power of conservative ideology in Iran; and the populist economic policies of Mr Ahmadinejad. Nonetheless, political change is often, as the activists interviewed here are starting to realise, a long game."

1145 GMT:  Conflicting reports over whether there is a visible security build-up in Tehran. Josh Shahryar posts video.

1140 GMT: We've posted a short but incisive comment by Pedestrian, "22 Khordaad: The Day We Chose to Live".

1050 GMT: Academic Corner. Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that 14 students at Kerman University have been detained. A total of 35 students were called to the university's disciplinary committee.

1040 GMT: Not a Diversion at All. The head of Iran's atomic energy programme, Ali Akbar Salehi, is quoted by Resalat: "In the next few months Iran will announce a new nuclear achievement in connection to the production of fuel for its Tehran research reactor."

1010 GMT: The First Demonstration? Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that retired workers of Pars Wagon Company in Arak have held a protest.

1005 GMT: Better Late than Never. Ahh, here comes Press TV's "objective" coverage of the anniversary:

"Iran's Press TV channel is to broadcast a documentary on the country's latest presidential election that was held on June 12 last year.

The Real Fake by renowned Iranian director Nader Talebzadeh that will be aired by the English language channel on Sunday provides realistic insight into developments in Iran before the election and the incidents after that.

The documentary seeks to resolve ambiguities that foreign audience may have about the presidential election. It includes footage that has never been broadcast on any TV channel, including some about the post-election violence and suspicious murders [hmm....Neda?; definitely not those killed in Kharizak Prison] committed in the days after the election."

The documentary also investigates the role of western media in the post-election developments in the country.

It provides facts indicating that the West has been preparing for a war with Iran after the election, which is introduced as an issue much more important than the issues surrounding the Islamic republic's 10th presidential election itself.

1000 GMT: Latest from the Streets. Cellphone and text service is reported normal. Some sources say Internet access has slowed; others say it is normal.

0840 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iran's main teachers' union has called for the release of all political detainees.

0800 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN, from Tehran sources, at 12 p.m. local time (0830 GMT): "Still no sign of police or security forces at major intersection and squares."

0733 GMT: We've posted a separate feature, "Daily Life in Tehran, One Year On".

0730 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN reports from a Tehran source, "No sign of security forces or Basij in major intersections and squares." Iran Press News reports traffic in Tehran is normal.

0712 GMT: Meanwhile in Kyrgyzstan. The dramatic events this spring in Kyrgyzstan, where President Kurmanbek Bakiyev was forced to step down, are far from over. Violence around the southern city of Osh, a power base for Bakiyev, has killed almost 50 people in recent days, and thousands, many of them ethnic Uzbeks, have fled their homes.

0710 GMT: Marking 22 Khordaad. Reports that Iranian state TV now showing pictures of the President to mark his "victory" last year.

0700 GMT: Economy Watch. Aftab News launches another attack on the Government, writing that "Iran's economy has no steering wheel", with three months passing and no implementation of the 5th Plan.

0650 GMT: The Battle Within. Khabar Online reports that, following Tehran Friday Prayers, there were chants denouncing high-profile member of Parliament Ali Motahari, who has been sharply critical of President Ahmadinejad.

At the same time, the fallout over the 4 June shout-down of another "establishment" figure, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, continues. Ayatollah Jalaleddin Taheri Esfahani has condemned the incident in a letter to Khomeini.

Hassan Rohani, an ally of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, has warned that, if the insults become usual, they might take down everyone, "even the planners".

0635 GMT: Protests = Foreign-Supported Terror. Press TV's website has 0 words about the anniversary of the election, preferring to headline yet another President Ahmadinejad announcement that Iran will enrich its uranium to 20 per cent (and thus does not need outside assistance to keep its Tehran Research Reactor operational).

However, Press TV' s current international programme is a not-so-subtle documentary that the "terrorist" "monarchist" group Tondar [Kingdom Assembly of Iran] is supported by the US Government. One of the allegations is that Tondar is linked to Radio Farda, the US Government-financed broadcaster.

And inside Iran, Mir Hossein Mousavi has returned to the screen of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting after a year, albeit as a clear and present danger to the Iranian system.

0615 GMT: Why Mousavi Retreated. Kalameh, the website close to Mir Hossein Mousavi, reports that the request for a permit to demonstrate was withdrawn because the Iranian regime was planning 2 blame Greens 4 violence on the day.

0545 GMT (9: 15 a.m. in Tehran): One Year Later, Another Day Forward? It is 22 Khordaad, the anniversary of the disputed 2009 Presidential election.

Anyone who predicts what will occur today is either a bigger fool or a far smarter analyst than I. The official rationale for a march has been withdrawn by the foot-dragging of the Ministry of the Interior (which never, as far as I know, ever denied more than two of 10 requests by reformist groups for permits, but merely stalled and stalled) and the announcement of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. Not just the heavy security presence today, but months of suppression and intimidation have disrupted the opposition and put fear into anyone who might dare show dissent openly.

Still some activists --- inside and outside Iran --- are talking of an appearance of protest, despite the risks. Whether that manifests itself and on what scale is beyond my most speculative guess at this point.

Meanwhile....

The Battle Over Neda

Iran's state TV channel IRIB 3 reportedly tried to get in a pre-emptive strike against protest last night with a documentary on Neda Agha Soltan, the 26-year-old philosophy student killed last 20 June by a Basiji gunshot while observing a mass demonstration. No prizes for guessing that the programme would attribute Neda's death to a foreign scheme to discredit the Iranian regime.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rKJf7dVnMo[/youtube]

However, IRIB's effort was pre-empted in turn --- at least on the Internet --- by a new 33-second clip of her last moments. (Warning: Graphic)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jk3sAI2nKRI[/youtube]

Political Prisoner Watch

RAHANA, complementing Internet chatter, writes that Iranian official in the Prosecutor General’s Office have warned student activist Majid Tavakoli, detained since 7 December, that "they have the power to do anything to him". The threats allegedly followed the publication of two letters sent by Tavakoli from Evin Prison, “For Change” and “We Will Build the Future.”

4 June Fall-Out

Massoumeh Ebtekar, Vice President in the Khatami Government, has written on her blog about last week's disruption at the ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini, when his grandson Seyed Hassan Khomeini was shouted down by hecklers and had to cut short his speech: "This is another sign, in the long string of events in recent years, that indicates a serious rift and distancing with the original line and thought of Imam Khomeini, now led by a minority that wills to cling to power by any means possible."

The Latest from Iran (10 June): Mousavi-Karroubi Withdraw Request to March

1950 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iran Focus reports that activist Mehdi Farahi Shandiz was detained on Wednesday.

1900 GMT: Tonight's Rooftop "Allahu Akbar" (God is Great) and "Marg Bar Dictator" (Death to the Dictator) Chants:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqqqbdY0Yso[/youtube]

NEW Iran Urgent: Mousavi-Karroubi Statement on 22 Khordaad Protest (10 June)
NEW Iran Interview: Ahmad Batebi “People’s Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge and Information”
NEW Iran Document: Karroubi “In the End, the Wiser Ones Will Take Over Iran” (9 June)
Latest Iran Video: Obama Statement on Sanctions…and Rights (9 June)
Iran Analysis: What’s Most Important Today? (Hint: Not Sanctions)
Iran Analysis: 4 June “The Day the Regime Will Regret” (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (9 June): Paying Attention

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zj3IAX369J0&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

1450 GMT: We have posted the English text of the Mousavi-Karroubi statement.

Dissected News evaluates:

"One way to look at this move by Moussavi and Karroubi is that they did the only thing they could. Neither leader can risk being arrested and having no legitimate and legal means to pursue reform. As was alluded to in the official statement, if large numbers of protesters show up for a rally that has been called off, it will appear as though the Green Movement is larger than its public leadership (this is true, anyway). If few numbers show up, then the Green Movement will still be able to say that the absence of large numbers was due to the backing off of the leaders of the movement."

1355 GMT: 22 Khordaad. Agence France Presse have picked up on the Mousavi-Karroubi statement, "Iran opposition leaders call off demos for vote anniversary".

1340 GMT: It's Official: Green Movement Bigger Threat than Saddam. The head of the Revolutionary Guard, General Mohammad Ali Jafari has pronounced, "Although last year's sedition did not last more than around eight months, it was much more dangerous than the imposed war which Saddam began against us through the support of the international community."

Jafari continued, "Because of the grace of God and the prophet-like guidance of the supreme leader and people's vigilance, we put this bitter incident behind us and the enemies found out the revolution cannot be diverted through these methods."

1230 GMT: New Mousavi-Karroubi Statement. As we still await the final word from the Ministry of Interior on requests for permits to march on 12 June, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have issued another statement, via both Karrroubi's Saham News and Mousavi's Kalemeh. In view of the threat to people's safety, they are withdrawing their request to march; however, they note the turnout on 25 Khordaad (15 June) last year, which was also in an "undeclared" protest. They continue, "In the great nation of Iran, it is not possible to block people on the way they have chosen and their creative role in making this path will appear....It is simplistic to think you can suppress the opposition with lies, threats, and humiliation."

1000 GMT: 22 Khordaad MediaFail. Reuters puts in an early candidate for worst pre-12 June "analysis": "Iran's Reformers Discouraged a Year after Vote".

On the basis of interviews with four --- count 'em, four --- Iranians, the comment of a political scientist, and an absence of any consideration of the latest developments in the political situation, the article assures us, "A year after Iran's disputed presidential vote, hardliners are firmly back in charge of a country where economic challenges and the nuclear dispute with the West now loom larger than a once-vibrant reform movement."

0843 GMT: Labour Front. Peyke Iran claims Saeed Torabian, the spokesman for Tehran bus workers, has been assaulted at home and taken away by security forces.

0839 GMT: Blood Money Will Make It All Go Away. Fereshteh Ghazi, speaking with the families of those killed in the post-election crisis reports: "Rather than conducting investigations to identify those who ordered and carried out the murder of protesters, the Iranian government has been pressuring the families of murdered protesters to forego holding memorials for their loved ones. One family member was told that “because the murderer was not identified, the case has been sent to the implementation division for payment of blood money from the public budget.”

0835 GMT: The Detained Journalists. More information on the status of imprisoned reporters and editors: a new list from the Committee to Protect Journalists has 37 currently imprisoned, but Reporters and Human Rights Activists of Iran counts 47 in jail, e.g.. Sousan Mohammadkhani Ghiasvand from Kurdistan, who does not appear on the CPJ list.

0830 GMT: A Solution. Rah-e-Sabz posts a long analysis from the Council of National-Religious Activists and its suggestion of five ways out of the crisis: 1) a free and protected rally on 22 Khordaad/12 June; 2) release of political prisoners and an end to executions; 3) restoring the political freedoms laid down in Constitution to the Iranian people, especially freedom of assembly, speech, and media; 4) an end to restrictions on political parties, non-governmental organisations and human rights organisations; 5) correction of election laws and free elections under impartial supervision.

0820 GMT: Larijani v. Ahmadinejad. Despite the attempts by the Supreme Leader to referee the Parliament's dispute with the President, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani presses on. At a lecture, Larijani warned, "If legislative and judiciary branches become subordinated to executive branch, it might accelerate the process of following [the President's] plans. But it would lead to dictatorship." Larijani continued, playing up to Ayatollah Khamenei and putting down Ahmadinejad:

Centralization of the Supreme leader's power won't lead to corruption since the leader should possess special qualifications which are not taken into account when the parliament speaker and the president are elected. Therefore the executive branch must adhere to the laws defining its authority. The government is not allowed to interfere with the duties of the legislative branch and disagree what passed by the Majlis.

Khabar Online also features the statement of Larijani ally, MP Ahmad Tavakoli: "Although in observing the bills, the Majlis may not be flawless, the government is not authorized to disobey the laws ratified by the legislative branch. Even if the statesmen believe that a law can not be executed, they should formally request the Majlis to revoke that and help the lawmakers to ratify the bills with the least amount of mistakes."

0815 GMT: 4 June Follow-Up "The Shadow Man". Earlier this week, Mohammad Ali Ansari, the coordinator of the commemoration for Ayatollah Khomeini last Friday, wrote Seyed Hassan Khomeini about the disruption of the event with the heckling of Hassan Khomeini's speech. Ansari mentioned, amidst discussion of possible organisation of the sabotage, a "Commander Vahid".

Rooz Online does some investigating to find out who Commander Vahid is and how he might be connected to the Supreme Leader.

0733 GMT: 22 Khordaad. The number of cities around the world holding rallies on 12 June is now 79.

0723 GMT: Rafsanjani Trashes the Election (and Criticises the Supreme Leader)? Yesterday we passed on reports that the office of Hashemi Rafsanjani had put out a tough letter denouncing President Ahmadinejad's behaviour over the election and challenging Ayatollah Khamenei for remaining silent on the issue.

We've had a look at the letter on Rafsanjani's website and, despite the former President's normal caution, it seems quite challenging. Could it be that Rafsanjani, just before 22 Khordaad (12 June), is going to make a public stand against the President --- and ask the Supreme Leader to make a stand as well?

0720 GMT: Hanging Judges. Omid Memarian profiles "hardline" judges --- Abolghasem Salavati, Mohammad Moghiseh, and Pir-Abbasi --- of the Revolutionary Court.

0710 GMT: Winning With Information. We have posted an interview with activist Ahmad Batebi, "The People's Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge and Information".

0625 GMT: Larijani Strikes A Nuclear Pose. He may be at odds with President Ahmadinejad on political issues, but Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani is making sure he's alongside the Government in defiance of the latest UN sanctions on Iran's nuclear programme.

Larijani said at a press conference, "We are regretful that the US is playing a naive game in New York these days," adding that this game was being led by the "Zionist lobby".
0615 GMT: No More Nedas? Rumour of the day comes from The New York Times, citing a pro-Government website:

A factory in Iran has been closed down after trying to mass produce statuettes of people who were killed in the protests that followed last year’s disputed presidential election, among them, Neda Agha-Soltan....

The pro-government Aty News Web site, reported on Wednesday that the factory, located in the eastern province of Semnan, was shuttered after just one month, though officials denied the closure.

The Web site....also states that the factory’s 40 female employees were discovered working without hejabs...and that they were mixing freely with the male members of the staff.

0545 GMT: 22 Khordaad. Yet another invitation to show up on 12 June comes from the students of Azad University of Tehran.

0530 GMT: First, a reminder of Iran just over 48 hours before the anniversary of the elections --- last night's rooftop Allahu Akhbars (God is Great):

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B073FkNZdDQ&playnext_from=TL&videos=4udYKWS5xNc[/youtube]

We have also posted yet another interview by Mehdi Karroubi in the run-up to 12 June. He reviews the development of Iran from the Revolution to today and, despite much pessimism, asserts, "In The End, The Wiser Ones Will Take Over Iran".

Of course, the headline story in non-Iranian media is yesterday's UN Security Council resolution for a new set of sanctions on Tehran. Even that, however, could not completely escape the internal situation in Iran: we have posted the video of President Obama's comments, with his reference to the "repression" of the Iranian people, and a snap analysis in yesterday's updates.

Dave Siavashi of Iran News Now evaluates the developments and puts out this warning: "The sanctions lend an air of legitimacy to the regime’s claim that nefarious outside forces, or Doshman (the all encompassing enemy), as [Ayatollah] Khamenei likes to refer to them, have it in for Iran; thereby giving the hardcore Islamist radicals of the regime a pretext and excuse for continued harsh repression of the opposition."

The Latest from Iran (9 June): Paying Attention

2030 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that the head of Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign in Babolsar has been arrested.

2000 GMT: A Friendly Notice. To all journalists riding the two-dimensional bandwagon on Twitter & Iran, treating cliches like "Twitter Revolution" as if they were the core of meaningful analysis, I'm not going to respond for the moment --- this is a made-up dramatic revelation, which recurs every few months and does not get to the heart of what social media has meant in the post-election crisis. Best to let it serve as tomorrow's chip paper.

But if you keep it up, I may change my mind....

1900 GMT: Mahmoud Snaps Back. President Ahmadinejad, who has had post-election encounters with dust (read his "victory speech") and insects (see video), worked both into his response to the UN sanctions resolution: "These (U.N.) resolutions have no value...They are like a used handkerchief that should be thrown in the dust bin. Sanctions are falling on us from the left and the right. For us they are the same as pesky flies....We have patience and we will endure throughout all of this."

NEW Latest Iran Video: Obama Statement on Sanctions...and Rights (9 June)
NEW Iran Analysis: What’s Most Important Today? (Hint: Not Sanctions)
NEW Iran Analysis: 4 June “The Day the Regime Will Regret” (Verde)
Iran Election Anniversary Special: The Power of the “Gradual”
Iran Special Report:The Attack on Civil Society (Arseh Sevom)
The Latest from Iran (8 June): Tremors and Falsehoods

1855 GMT: Back to 22 Khordaad. BBC Persian reports on the increased security presence on the streets of Tehran on the eve of 12 June,the anniversary of the election.


1725 GMT: President Obama has just made a statement about Iran in the aftermath of the UN vote on sanctions. We've posted the video.

Here's the quick read: Obama proclaimed that the sanctions were the "most comprehensive" Iran has faced, said that the UN resolution sent an "unmistakeable message", and spent most of the rest of the time justifying the position on sanctions in connection with his policy of "engagement": "We recognize Iran's rights, but with those rights come responsibilities. Time and again the Iranian Government has failed to meet those responsibilities."

Then, in one of the eight minutes of the statement, having declared,"These sanctions are not directed at the Iranian people," Obama switched from nukes to rights. He noted this Saturday's anniversary of the election, "an event that should have been remembered for how the Iranian people participated with remarkable enthusiasm but will instead be remembered for how the Iranian Government brutally suppressed dissent and murdered the innocent, including a young woman [Neda Agha Soltan] left to die in the street".

It was a bit awkward for the President to link back to uranium and sanctions, and he did not help by throwing in the spectre of Tehran's War of Terror --- "Actions do have consequences. And today the Iranian Government will face some of those consequences. Because whether it is threatening the Nuclear Non-Proliferation regime or the rights of its own citizens or the stability of its own neighbors by supporting terrorism, the Iranian Government continues to demonstrate that its unjust actions are a threat to justice everywhere".

However, at least for one moment, "Iran" was seen in more than the one-dimensional image of a nuclear weapon.

1720 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani's office has released a letter which, in the eyes of Deutsche Welle, criticises the Supreme Leader's silence over President Ahmadinejad and implicitly acknowledges fraud in the 2009 election.

1620 GMT: Sanctions. The UN Security Council has voted 12-2, with 1 abstention, for new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme.

The relatively limited measures include restrictions on transactions with Iranian banks, asset freezes on Iranian individuals and companies, and an expanded arms embargo on items such as attack helicopters and missiles.

Turkey and Brazil, who recently signed an agreement with Iran on procedure for talks over uranium enrichment, were the two countries who voted against the resolution. Lebanon abstained.

1605 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Al Arabiya has just published an interview from May with Mehdi Karroubi. Topics covered include the rise of the Green Movement, party politics, accusations of prison abuse and torture, Government mismanagement, and Ahmadinejad's foreign policy. Karroubi also offered this in anticipation of 22 Khordaad (12 June), the anniversary of the election:

We promise and give assurances that no incident will occur. I am certain that if a march is held, paramilitary forces will attempt to turn it violent, but our people are wise, and politically mature enough that even if certain individuals come chanting radical slogans, the people have the ability to control the scenario and confront them. However, if authorisation is not granted for demonstrations, we will then decide what to do; but it is currently not possible to say much.

1545 GMT: On the International Front (Mahmoud Stays Home). On Monday, Iranian state media were trumpeting that their internationally-esteemed President would be showing his strength, in the face of Western pressure, by going to the Shanghai Expo in China.

Today, Agence France Presse says that Ahmadinejad plans to stay away from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting to snub Russia and China for supporting the US-backed sanctions resolution in the United Nations.

1120 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amnesty International has launched a new campaign, "One Year On: Stop Unfair Trials". Cases include journalists Abolfazl Abedini Nasr, Hengameh Shahidi, Emaduddin Baghi, Shiva Nazar Ahari and Ahmad Zeidabadi, student activists Majid Tavakoli and Mohammad Amin Valian, and Zia Nabavi of the Council to Defend the Right to Education.

1015 GMT: The Nuclear Discussions. A piece of news that slipped under the media radar....

The International Atomic Energy Agency has announced that it has received replies from France, Russia, and the US to the Iran-Brazil-Turkey declaration on procedure for uranium enrichment talks.

No details were given beyond the note, "Attached to each of the letters was an identical paper entitled ‘Concerns about the Joint Declaration Conveyed by Iran to the IAEA’."

That, however, indicates co-ordination between the three governments. And the timing of the IAEA's statement, together with the lack of substance, indicates that it is happy to let the news be overtaken by today's sanctions vote in the UN.

0955 GMT: Reflecting on The Year. Journalist Masih Alinejad has offered her recollections and analysis in an extended video interview with Voice of America Persian.

0935 GMT: A Signal for the Week? Hamshahri features the colourful cover identifying the bad guys in "Sedition '88".

0930 GMT: Intimidation of Kurdistan Businesses? Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that, following a general strike on 9 May to protest executions, members of bazaars across Kurdistan have been summoned and threatened by government authorities and the businesses of others have been sealed.

0800 GMT: What is the Green Movement? An interesting interview with Fatemeh Sadeghi, a former professor at Tehran University, who argues that the Green Movement is not the opposition of the "secular" against the "religious".

0750 GMT: The Post-Election Abuses. Abdul Ruholamini has resurfaced to declare that those responsible for the abuse and killing of detainees in Kahrizak Prison must "pay for their deeds".

Ruholamini, the campaign manager for Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, is the father of Mohsen Ruholamini, who died in Kahrizak last summer. The case was instrumental in bringing the abuses to light and pressing the Supreme Leader to close Kahrizak. Ruholamini had gone farther in public statements at the start of 2010, declaring that high-ranking officials must take responsibility for the crimes, but had been silent in recent months.

Ruholamini may have been prompted to his statement by the news that the trial of 12 people over the Kahrizak case has finished behind closed doors.

0745 GMT: The Events of 4 June. Another perspective, complementing that of EA's Mr Verde, on last Friday's developments at the ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini comes from Hamid Farokhnia in Tehran Bureau.

Tehran Bureau also features a review by Muhammad Sahimi, "The Green Movement at One Year".

0740 GMT: Parliament v. President (and Supreme Leader). It seems that Ayatollah Khamenei's intervention --- calling for Parliament-Ahmadinejad co-operation and threatening the Majlis with new "oversight" --- may not have been an overwhelming success.

Key MP Ahmad Tavakoli, an ally of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, has commented in Khabar Online that the Constitution is written for people to cooperate, not to fight. So far, so good for the Supreme Leader.

But then Tavakoli re-asserts, "The Government has no right not to implement the laws from the Majlis."

0715 GMT: On a day when "Iran news", for most non-Iranian media, may be dominated by the passage of the US-led sanctions resolution in the UN Security Council, we set out priorities with two analyses: Scott Lucas declares, "What's Important Today? (Hint: Not Sanctions), and Mr Verde looks at "4 June: A Day the Regime Will Regret".

One US outlet shares our attention to the internal: Newsweek notes last Friday's events, with the shout-down of Seyed Hassan Khomeini, under the (over-blown) headline, "Iran's Hushed-Up Civil War":

For his part, Supreme Leader Khamenei did little damage control, even though he has worked hard to present a united front for Iran’s leadership, knowing that discord suggests vulnerability. He took the stage after Khomeini and asked the crowd to act in a more appropriate manner. But that was it. No defense of Khomeini and no rebuke to the crowd. With the anniversary of the contested election just days away now, Khamenei has been trying to manage a delicate balancing act between quieting and frightening the opposition—and sending mixed messages in the process.

In another warm-up for 12 June, the anniversary of the election, Zahra Rahnavard gives an interview to the Italian paper La Republicca. Beyond general criticism of the Government and the declaration, "I hope to shed the last drop of my blood in the cause of freedom and democracy," she focuses on key issues:

The demands of the women in Iran are twofold: 1) National demands such as freedom, democracy, the rule of the law, freedom of political prisoners, right to individual freedoms; 2) Elimination of discrimination and strengthening of cultural rights, women's rights and equal rights under the law.

....Democracy is not possible without women and without paying attention to the demands of women.

Iran Election Anniversary Special: The Power of the "Gradual"

This morning, I drafted this contribution to a new project for the anniversary of Iran's election. (More details soon, I hope.) I decided to post this after reading a series of high-profile analysis in Foreign Policy magazine which try to define Iran One Year Later for us. Ironically, given that the title of the collection is "Misreading Tehran", I found some of the pieces misleading, misguided, and even at times --- although I know this was not the intention of the authors --- belittling in their representation of Iranians.



So, in part, this is my response to those unhelpful definitions. But, in larger part, it is a Thank You to those who have been my instructors during this past year.

On 12 June 2009, I was enjoying a night out in London. My wife, who patiently puts up with the daily demands of my website on international affairs, had asked if I could risk trading an evening with Iran's Presidential election for dinner and the theatre. I assured her that it was clear that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his leading challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi would move to a second round of voting.


At 7:30 the next morning, the BBC rang to ask for an urgent comment: Ahmadinejad had won in the initial ballot with 63% of the vote. After I gave them a remark based more on surprise than insight, I realised two things: 1) I would be covering this story every day until there was a resolution; 2) to do so, I would have to become a student, seeking a variety of teachers to give me a crash course on the dynamics of Iranian politics, economics, religion, and society.

It is a year later. There is no resolution, and I am still learning.

I had had the good fortune, in the years before the 2009 election, to be introduced to Iran. I had worked with Iranian colleagues and students, and eventually --- despite my US passport --- had been able to visit the country to teach, participate in seminars, and give interviews to the Iranian media. I had even become an Adjunct Professor at a leading Iranian university.

Those opportunities had given me a glimpse of an Iran which was one of the most political environments I had ever encountered. There was constant discussion --- even as there were limits on that discussion --- of what the country was and what it might become. There was consideration, beyond the simplicities of the US v. Iran, of Tehran's role in the region and in the world, there were concerns about an economy facing both internal challenges and external restrictions, and there were glimpses of debates on social and cultural issues. Inevitably, given that I was working with students, there was much attention to the “Third Generation” that had grown up after the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. I was told often --- by both critics and defenders of the Government --- that 30 years after the 1979 introduction of an Islamic Republic, this was a “Gradual Revolution”.

In the weeks before and after the 2009 election, however, change did not seem “gradual”. Even watching from a distance, I was swept up in the excitement that surrounded a campaign which, with its televised debates as well as its well-attended speeches, appeared to offer a louder political voice to Iran's people. That fervour continued after the election when President Ahmadinejad's victory speech, with its description of opponents as “dust and tumbleweeds”, was met by millions on the streets of Tehran. It crackled when the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayer vindicating the vote encountered more demonstrations of anger, tragedy, and hope. It would be resurgent when there were more public encounters: in mid-July after former President Hashemi Rafsanjani's Friday Prayer, on Qods Day in September, from 13 Aban (4 November) to 16 Azar (7 December) to the funeral of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri to the commemoration of Ashura on 27 December.

These were dramatic, still vivid events, yet I wonder if they misled us into forgetting about the “gradual”. Narratives were written as if a knockout blow would be landed either by the Green Movement or by the defenders of President Ahmadinejad. Predictions were uttered about the imminent fall or unshakeable permanence of the Islamic Republic. Each public occasion, while important, was given the aura of the defining incident that would finally conclude the inconclusive outcome of 12 June 2009.

Prize fights are settled within 15 rounds of 3 minutes each; the quest for civil rights is not. The election, after all, was just the public apex of a larger, ongoing climb for political, economic, and social recognition, respect, and justice. The Green Movement, as significant as it would become, did not displace the movements for women's rights, student rights, labour rights, legal rights, economic rights, religious rights, and the rights of Iran's many ethnic groups. (Indeed, one of the ongoing, “deeper” issues of this past year has been how the Green Movement --- if it is more than a symbolic entity --- interacts with the activism of these other movements.)

This post-election contest, which rested upon years of discussion and challenge within the Islamic Republic, was always destined to be a marathon and not a sprint.

But marathons are hard to cover. And, in the immediate aftermath of 12 June, that coverage --- at least by “mainstream” media --- would be complicated as Iranian authorities cracked down on domestic and foreign correspondents. The “mainstream” non-Iranian press was effectively blinded within weeks as reporters were expelled or fled because of intimidation and threats of detention, camera crews were restricted to offices and hotel rooms, and bureaus were shut. Iranian journalists persisted, but many of them --- eventually more than 100 --- would wind up in jail. By September, even the most prominent reformist newspapers and websites were being shut down, their offices raided and ransacked, their editors behind bars.

Unsurprisingly, some non-Iranian outlets --- deprived of their “normal” capacity for effective reporting --- would thus look for the big event rather than the gradual shifts. There would be weeks of silence or muted coverage of internal events, often as headlines were devoted to Iran's nuclear programme, and then a sudden burst of attention to a gathering such as the Ashura demonstration or the rallies on 11 February, the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. Then, when that high-profile event did not produce a clean, final “victory”, the mainstream media might retreat into somnolence, sometimes after a benediction that the Green Movement had been vanquished.

Well, here's the paradox: amidst and even beyond these big events, the “gradual” has triumphed in media as well as politics.

Ultimately, it is not the speed of technology that --- despite the repression of the Iranian Government and despite the retreat of the “mainstream” media --- has ensured that Iran's post-election story is still ongoing in June 2010. Rather, it is the “gradual” efforts of those who, each day, often at risk to themselves, have persisted in telling their tales or passing on the information from others.

They are not the international correspondents with news programmes named after them, they are not the anchormen and anchorwomen with weekly talk shows to define the news, they do not even have by-lines. Sometimes their names are not even their own but are the pseudonyms and usernames that have to be adopted to ensure that they can report again.

However, it is they who remove our blindness by giving us a glimpse of the day-to-day. It is they who break up the deafening noise of State propaganda and pronouncements with sounds of what has occurred in their neighbourhoods. It is they who give form to the meaning --- not in the abstract, but in the real --- of “rights” and “justice”.

Ironically and somewhat sadly, I write this --- four days before the anniversary of the election --- as yet another set of articles by analysts tries to define all that we have experienced. One headline blares, “The Green Movement was a historic success. Too bad no one was watching.” (No. We are still watching, still writing, still learning.) A commentator proclaims, "Getting the real story out of Iran today is virtually impossible." (Difficult, yes. Impossible, no --- thanks to those whom the commentator, focused on mainstream media, never notices.) A journalist declares, “There was no Twitter Revolution inside Iran.” (No, but that was never the issue. Twitter is a tool, a powerful tool that allows us to ensure that the “gradual” does not disappear --- we are still reporting, still writing, still learning --- as those in power try to shut down information into and out of Iran.)

[An important caveat: the collection also includes a redemptive piece by Nazila Fathi which avoids the dismissive generalisations and assesses, "Despite those all the obstacles put in its way, the media has done a remarkable job in properly identifying the enormity of the past year's events. The Green Movement has, indeed, shaken the very core of the Islamic Republic. The country is polarized and the regime's legitimacy has been compromised. All of this, the Western media -- at least, those of us who had any real experience covering Iran -- got largely right."

My one suggestion is that Fathi's "media" be considered as not only "Western media" but many Iranian journalists and Iranians who report even if they do not carry official press credentials.]

But, as I write this, irony rebounds and sadness turns back to hope. For I read these edicts from those analysts and journalists who try to define, once and for all, what has happened. Then I read the contributions in this book, contributions which come not from anointed experts or the by-lined professionals, and I realise that the story of “what has happened” is in these essays.

And it is not just “what has happened” but “what may happen”. There are no proclamations of the final outcome in these pages, no ringing of the bell to say that all is complete. Instead, the victory is in the process, the pursuit of the “gradual”. As long as the search for rights is persistent in these words of sorrow or hope, then rights cannot be denied. As long as the vision of fairness is offered in these reflections, then others have not succeeding in making us --- inside or outside Iran --- blind.

The power of the vote may have been taken away on 12 June 2009. Some may try to pronounce that Iranians --- repressed by their Government, bedazzled by false hopes of Twitter --- are reduced to the powerless. But As long as the power to express is put in the simple but effective phrases by these authors, then the power of expression remains.

A marathon, not a sprint.