Iran Feature: Music and Resistance (Fathi)

Nazila Fathi reports in The New York Times:

Parisa remembers the precise moment she heard her first song by Shahin Najafi, an Iranian rapper living in exile in Germany, on her illegal satellite television in the small city of Karadj, west of Tehran.

“His words cut through me like a knife,” she said.

Parisa, a 24-year-old university student, stayed up long after midnight one night, when the Internet connection was faster, and spent six hours downloading Mr. Najafi’s songs to share with her friends.



Since Iranian authorities have cracked down on the demonstrations that rocked the country after a disputed election a year ago this month, a flood of protest music has rushed in to comfort and inspire the opposition. If anything, as the street protests have been silenced, the music has grown louder and angrier.

The government has tried all manner of methods to mute what has become known as “resistance music.” They have blocked Web sites used to download songs and shut down social networking sites, which were also used by the opposition to organize protests and distribute videos of government and paramilitary violence.

In April, a shadowy pro-government group that calls itself “the cyber army” shut downMr. Najafi’s Web site. The group, which hacked Iranian Twitter in December, left a message saying the site had been “conquered by anonymous soldiers of Imam Zaman,” a reference to the Shiite messiah.

In late December, the authorities detained Shahram Nazeri, a prominent Persian classical musician who had recorded the song “We Are Not Dirt or Dust,” a tart response to the words President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad used to characterize the antigovernment protesters. The government briefly took his passport, detained him and intimidated him; he has not released anything since.

But clamping down on music in the digital age is like squeezing a wet sponge.

Protest songs are downloaded on the Internet, sold in the black market or shared via Bluetooth, a wireless technology Iranians have adapted to share files on cellphones, bypassing the Internet altogether. Fans have also made dozens of homemade videos, setting montages of protest images to music and posting them online.

Read rest of article....

The Latest from Iran (6 June): The Fallout from Friday

2150 GMT: More on That Rumour. We've checked with correspondents, who assess that the claim that Seyed Hassan Khomeini hit Minister of Interior, Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, should be treated as "flimsy". They can find no corroborating evidence for the story from Javan.

(We should have noted in the post below that Javan is connected to the Revolutionary Guard, and it could be in its interest to portray the opposition --- and Hassan Khomeini --- as violent and irrational. My apologies for the omission, and my thanks to readers for pointing this out.)

1955 GMT: And Now The Rumour of the Day. Javan reports that the Interior Minister, Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, is currently in hospital after being hit by Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the  grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, during Friday's ceremony.

According to "multiple sources", Hassan was upset that in a TV interview last week, Najjar referred to him as "Seyed Hassan Mostafavi" --- a "secondary" surname of the Khomeini clan --- to minimise his ties with his grandfather. (Javan also refers to Hassan as "Hassan Mostafavi".)

Najjar already had stitches on his face when he arrived at the Khomeini shrine on Friday, due to surgery for sinusitis. His face was bloody again after being hit by Hassan.

NEW Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi on Khomeini, the Rule of Law, and Protest in 2010 (4 June)
NEW Iran Document: The Supreme Leader’s Speech (4 June)
Iran Special: The Regime Disappoints, So It’s Over to the Opposition
Iran Document: Detained Filmmaker Nourizad Writes the Supreme Leader
The Latest from Iran (5 June): Is That All There Is?

1625 GMT: Friday Fall-Out. Mehdi Karroubi has written Seyed Hassan Khomeini, “You know very well that the account of these few trained and organized individuals [who shouted down Khomeini during his Friday speech] is separate from the account of the massive number of the devotees of Imam [Khomeini], his children and relatives, and especially you.”


1545 GMT: Reports are coming in that high-profile member of Parliament Ali Motahari has been summoned by his "principlist" party for his criticism of President Ahmadinejad over Friday's events.

1540 GMT: More Fall-Out. Ayatollah Sane'i has phoned Seyed Hassan Khomeini to express his regret over Friday's incident, directing his criticism at authorities: "If they were not politically insane, they would have not prevented the freedom of speech and people’s right to hear the speech in front of hundreds of national and international reporters and while this event was broadcast live. This act is a sign of their weakness and is the sign that the will and desire of God is that their plans would be ruined.”

Sane'i added: “Those how plan these incidents be it those who order it or who execute it or who provoke it are incapable of solving country’s social, economic, political and foreign problems and therefore commit such acts to divert the public mind".

1305 GMT: Friday Fall-Out. Ayatollah Mousavi Ardebili has added his voice to the chorus condemning the sabotage of Seyed Hassan Khomeini's speech at the commemoration ceremony for the death of his grandfather.

1300 GMT: Karroubi Watch. The US magazine Newsweek has published the text of an interview by e-mail with Mehdi Karroubi, which follows the line of the discussion with Masih Alinejad that we posted on EA on 27 May: "My family and myself, we are all ready to pay any price for our struggle for the people of Iran."

1243 GMT: The Executed. The families of Farzad Kamangar,Farhad Vakili, and Ali Heydarian,,three of five Iranians executed on 9 May, have met with the Governor of Kurdestan Province to ask for help in getting the return of their bodies.

The Governor told the families that their children were buried at a place that cannot be disclosed for "security reasons".

1239 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Labor activist Alireza Akhavan has been arrested by security forces. Farhad Fathi, the director of the Reformist Organization of Qazvin's International University, has also been detained.

Human Rights Activists News Agency claims Reza Malek, former deputy of Research and Investigation in the Intelligence Ministry, has been severely beaten by prison guards.

1228 GMT: Economy Watch. Iran is 94th out of 104 countries on the 2009 Legatum Prosperity Index, between Cambodia and Kenya.

1224 GMT: We Don't Need No Women's Studies. Hossein Naderi-Manesh, the Deputy Minister of Science and Higher Education, has allegedly said that it is "no problem to eliminate women's studies from universities as the Quran is full of subjects about them".

1220 GMT: Mousavi Challenges Regime on "Foreign Threat". In a statement on Kalemeh, Mir Hossein Mousavi has thrown the allegation of subversion by foreigners and "terrorists" back at the Iranian regime: "It should be asked who has presented a golden opportunity to the US, Israel, the hypocrites, and the monarchists with all these destructive, non-transparent and misleading policies. Is it those who seek freedom and justice or dubious cults which have devastated the lives of laborers, teachers and farmers?"

1119 GMT: Friday Follow-Up. The denunciations of the treatment of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, are piling up. The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, joining politicians from Mir Hossein Mousavi to conservative MP Ali Motahari, has written an open letter to clerics in Qom declaring that Friday's hecklers are against an independent clergy.

1115 GMT: 22 Khordaad. Daneshjoo News carries a call by Green Movement students for demonstrations across Iran on 12 June, the anniversary of the Presidential election.

1045 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. There is still uncertainty over the supposed 81 pardons handed out by the Supreme Leader. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi said that "a series of prisoners" have already been released, with repentance as a requirement for amnesty. Still, there are no names of those who have supposedly been freed.

0620 GMT: We are in Warwick this morning, so the latest news from Iran will be posted around midday British time.

0610 GMT: Some inside and outside Iran are pondering what they claim is a relatively low turnout for the regime's ceremonies and speeches.

Could one possible reason be a lack of faith in Government? Fazel Mousavi, a member of Parliament's Article 90 Commission, has declared, "In our country, no party in the real meaning of the world, is active."

Reformist Mohammad Reza Khabbaz adds that, in the last year, 122 Government declarations contravened Majlis legislation, "a new record".

0555 GMT: Friday's Controversies. The political thunder rumbles on over the speeches at the ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini's death. Rah-e-Sabz claims that, by citing Imam Ali, the Supreme Leader has compared himself to Shia's first Imam.

Regime supporter Hojatoleslam Hossein Sobhani-Nia has given indirect approval of the shout-down of the Imam's grandson, Khomeini: "People are alert, when someone deviates from Imam's path."

Meanwhile, some Iranian sites are taking aim at former President Mohammad Khatami, claiming he went to the Caspian Sea for "fun and vacation" while millions were mourning for Ayatollah Khomeini.

0525 GMT: We have posted two documents: there is a key extract from the Supreme Leader's speech on Friday and Mehdi Karroubi's lengthy consideration of "Khomeini, the Rule of Law, and Protest".

Iran Document: The Supreme Leader's Speech (4 June)

An excerpt from the Supreme Leader's remarks at the Tehran Friday Prayers commemorating the death of Ayatollah Khomeini. Translation by Iran Focus:

Today, in the first part of the sermon, I will share some points about the esteemed Imam [Khomeini]. We will study the Imam as a symbol or a criterion. This is important because the main challenge of all sizeable social developments, including revolutions, is to safeguard the principal course of action offered by the said revolution or development. This is the most important challenge for any powerful social change, in the sense that such a change embodies certain goals and is geared to move towards those goals, inviting others to join in. This sense of direction towards the goals of a revolution or social movement must be preserved. Otherwise, that revolution will turn into its complete opposite and operate against its own goals.

Iran Special: The Regime Disappoints, So It’s Over to the Opposition
Latest Iran Video: Pro-Regime Crowd Shouts Down Khomeini Grandson (4 June)
Iran Snap Analysis: The Meaning of Today’s Khamenei-Ahmadinejad Show

The sense of direction for any revolution serves as its fundamental identity. If the sense of direction were to change and attention is diverted from the main path, then the revolution will not achieve its ends. This is significant because such change is gradual and intangible. It is not as if a 180 degree turn would take place right at the outset. Rather, it starts from smaller angles, and as it continues, the distance between the main path, which is the right one, will increase with such deviations on a daily basis.


Usually, those who seek to alter the identity of the revolution will not have an official flag or will not label themselves as such. They do not act in a way that shows their opposition to the [main] path, and sometimes, they even perform an action or make a statement to show support for the path of the revolution. They are creating a divergence to make the revolution move away from its direction and ultimately bring it down. In order to prevent this wrong direction or deviation from taking hold, there must be certain criteria. If such criteria are in place, and if they are clear and readily observed by the people, then a deviation would never take place. Moreover, if someone were to move in the direction of that deviation, they will be identified by the masses of people. But, if such criteria were absent, then the threat will become serious. Now, what is the criterion for our own revolution?

There is a threat. The enemy, the enemy of the revolution and the enemy of the Imam will not stand by. The enemy is trying to uproot this revolution. How? Through deviations from the path of the revolution. So, we must have a criterion, and the best criterion is the Imam himself and his path.

We must explicitly make reference to the Imam, along with his stance against the arrogant powers, against reactionary movements, against western liberal democracy, and against hypocrites and charlatans. One must make a direct reference to the Imam with regards to such matters. Those who were influenced by the Imam’s outstanding personality, and those who heard his positions, surrendered themselves. We cannot cover up or hide the Imam’s positions, or diminish the power of the ones we deem as too radical, so that certain people would appreciate it.

Those who follow the Imam must know that the Imam would not have joined a coalition that explicitly waves the flag of opposition against the Imam and Islam. It cannot be accepted that the US, Britain, CIA, Mossad, monarchists, and the Monafeqin [pejorative term used by the regime to refer to the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran] are all in agreement about an axis, and then the same axis claims to follow the Imam’s path. This is not acceptable.

Another fundamental point about the path of Imam is that he repeatedly stated that judgment about people must take place using their current circumstances as a criterion. The individuals’ past actions are not of concern. The past comes into play when the current situation is not clear. That is when we would resort to the past to discover how it was in order draw a line to the present. But, if the individuals’ current situation is the complete opposite of their past, then the latter would be irrelevant. This is the judgment that Imam Ali made in the case of Talhe and Zobeyr. You should know that Talhe and Zobeyr were not insignificant figures. Zobeyr had a glowing history, which very few of Imam Ali’s followers shared. After Abu Bakr became the caliph, during the very first days, a number of Muslims rose up during Abu Bakr’s sermon and opposed him. They told him, ‘you are wrong. Ali is right.’ The names of these people have been recorded in history, and it is not just recounted by the Shiites. It is all recorded in history books. One of the people who had risen up to defend Ali’s right was Talha bin Ubaidullah. Such was his background. Twenty-five years separate that day from the day Zubayr pulled out a sword against Ali. Now, our Sunni brothers want to excuse Talhe and Zubayr ibn al-Awwam and say their knowledge could only lead them to that point. Anyhow, whatever the case was, we are not in a position to say what their situation is as they face God. But, what did Ali do with them? He fought against them. He took an army from Medina to Kufa and Basra to fight against Talha and Zubayr. This means that their pasts simply vanished.

This was Imam’s criterion. [In 1979] there were some people who were on the plane alongside Imam and came to Iran from Paris. There were executed during the Imam's time for treason. There were also some who had contacts with Imam during the periods he was in Najaf and later in Paris. They were treated cordially by the Imam at the beginning of the revolution. But, later, their positions and deeds led Imam to reject them....

The Latest from Iran (4 June): Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, & A Showdown?

2010 GMT: Picture of the Day? Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan and former President Hashemi Rafsanjani during the speech of the Supreme Leader:

NEW Iran Snap Analysis: The Meaning of Today’s Khamenei-Ahmadinejad Show
Iran Document: Majid Tavakoli “The Will of My Nation Led to Victory”
The Latest from Iran (3 June): Karroubi Video Message

2000 GMT: Interrogation Watch. The Committee of Human Rights Reporters reports that security forces went to the home of human rights activist Saba Vasefi to arrest her, but she was not away. There is no information on her current situation and whereabouts.


Vasefi, a university instructor, researcher, human rights activist, and women’s rights activist, reportedly was looking into the case of a person sentenced to death but has not returned.

1704 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi's latest statement continues to resonate, with his declaration that "they have ruined the republic side of the regime in the name of Islam".

Karroubi's website Saham News also clarifies the story, spread by Fars News, that the cleric was assaulted on Thursday. An incident did occur at Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery The website adds that Karroubi was able to reach the Haram where --- significantly in light of today's events --- he was received by Hassan Khomeini.

1700 GMT: Absentees. No reformists, including Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami --- attended the ceremony today.

1645 GMT: The Big Story from Today --- Hassan Khomeini. It looks like the speech of President Ahmadinejad, and even that of the Supreme Leader, have been overshadowed by the sabotaging of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson.

The story is all over the Iranian web. The pro-regime Raja News is spreading the slogan, "Imam Khomeini's real nephew is Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah [the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon]". The story is now spreading that Raja disseminated this before the ceremony today and encouraged the heckling of Hassan Khomeini.

It is also significant that Hassan Khomeini halted his speech after the chants of "Death to Mousavi" started, stating, "Please refrain from expressing such sentiments until the Leader takes the podium." During the Supreme Leader's speech, both he and Hashemi Rafsanjani kept their heads buried deep in their chests.

1520 GMT: Clerical Support. Ayatollah Dastgheib has written to Mir Hossein Mousavi, expressing his support for Mousavi's "sincerity and his avoidance of betrayal, lies, and hypocrisy".

1455 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Shabnam Madadzadeh, vice president of the student organisation Daftar Tahkim Vahdat, and her brother Farzad have both been sentenced to five years in prison.

1450 GMT: Relaxing the Oil Squeeze? International Oil Daily claims that Royal Dutch Shell has resumed shipments to Iran, with three 30,000-ton deliveries of gasoline/petrol last month at the port of Bandar Abbas.

1445 GMT: Parliament v. President. Peyke Iran claims that Parliament's Article 90 Commission has said that it is not convinced of Ahmadinejad's defence of his Government's implementation of policies.

1440 GMT: Reading Larijani. And what of this what you will from Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, explaining at a memorial service, "Today we see a backwardness which has nothing to do with the ideas of the Imam [Khomeini]."

1425 GMT: Reading Today. We've posted a snap analysis of the significance of today's speeches.

Khabar Online posts an article on the sabotage of Hassan Khomeini's speech. The website also claims that the Supreme Leader consoled Khomeini by kissing him on the forehead.

The reformist Green Voice of Freedom also covers the incident, emphasising Khomeini's declaration that those shouting down his words were "a minority".

0935 GMT: The Bad West. Khamenei is still criticising the West and Israel, claiming that the US and others try to restrict Iran's access to nuclear energy (but saying little more), as the crowds chants Death to the US and Death to Israel.

And that's about it as the Supreme Leader moves to a closing prayer and Press TV cuts its coverage.

0925 GMT: The Israel Rap. After leading the audience in prayer, the Supreme Leader uses the attack on the Freedom Flotilla as proof of Israel "murdering innocents" as Western "hypocrites and liars" observe and keep silent over the "barbaric and savage" Zionists.

0920 GMT: Back to the Challenge. "They started this chaos. They tried their efforts. They supported those rioters. The UK also supported them, Western powers [supported them]. MKO ["terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq] and all the opponents supported them. What was the result?....Our great people last year showed such a great power that dazzled the whole world."

0916 GMT: Audience Watch. They may be rivals for power, but Ahmadinejad is sitting next to Sadegh and Ali Larijani. Ahmadinejad ally Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi is three seats from Hashemi Rafsanjani.

0912 GMT: Now I Will Shake My Fist. The Supreme Leader starts his attack on opposition figures by saying that individuals should not be judged on their past offices but on their present positions, adding that the first Imam, Imam Ali, fought former allies when they strayed.

How serious could this get? Khamenei notes that some people who accompanied Ayatollah Khomeini on his return to Iran in 1979 were later executed because they left the proper path. His message to opponents: "the yardstick for passing judgement is your present situation if, God forbid, Satan pushes [you] the wrong way".

0910 GMT: Still going on about Israel and Palestine, with an Iranian position "based on logic and not sloganeering".

0905 GMT: The Global Dimension. Instead of returning to the internal battle, the Supreme Leader uses his invocation of Khomeini and democracy to claim that Iran --- without interfering in the affairs of other countries --- is setting a "glorious example" to the rest of the world.

He quickly moves, however, from glory to darker language, setting up his anti-Israel section by invoking Ayatollah Khomeini's description of Israel as a "cancerous tumour".

0900 GMT: Legitimacy. Khamenei points to elections in the early days of the Islamic Republic: "In no other revolution do you see a referendum less than two months after victory." And, in the toughest times during the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988, the elections were never postponed.

0850 GMT: Attack Resumed. Another not-so-veiled reference by Khamenei to political opponents as "mercenaries" of foreign, hostile powers. He speaks of their stances on Qods Day (September) and Ashura (27 December) --- both occasions of large opposition demonstrations --- and says that "we cannot remain silent" and "call ourselves followers of the Imam".

0830 GMT: The First Swipe. Khameini makes his first analogy with the contemporary situation, criticising those who were followers of Ayatollah Khomeini but "went their own way" and "lost their goals....After years, they stand against those ideals."

Mir Hossein Mousavi just happened to be Prime Minister during the last years of Ayatollah Khomeini's life.

(Interesting side note: the Supreme Leader reads and interprets sections of Khomeini's will but never notes his injunction against the involvement of the military in politics.)

0825 GMT: Disrespecting Khomeini. A quick flashback to the episode between the Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader speeches: the section of the crowd who sabotaged the speech of the Imam's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, were reportedly chanting, "Death to Mousavi". We've posted the video.

0820 GMT: Audience Check. In contrast to the lack of VIPs who showed up for President Ahmadinejad, everyone who is anyone is here for Khamenei. The three Larijani brothers have now appeared, as has former President Rafsanjani.

0815 GMT: The Supreme Leader begins with a lengthy section lauding the steadfastness and piety of Ayatollah Khomeini.

0800 GMT: Ayatollah Khamenei has just arrived on the stage. We have an urgent commitment this morning so we will be blogging the Supreme Leader's address "as live" in about three hours.

0800 GMT: Extraordinary development --- a section of the crowd is yelling to prevent Hassan Khomeini from speaking. He is now referring to this openly, asking "forgiveness for all of us". (Press TV makes no reference to the disruption.)

0752 GMT: A Surprise Appearance. The grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, is now speaking. That's a bit unexpected: Hassan Khomeini has been critical of the Ahmadinejad Government and has been under sustained pressure to curb his activities.

He is greeted enthusiastically --- more enthusiastically than Ahmadinejad --- and has to pause repeatedly for the crowd to quiet before he can speak.

(Or, alternatively, is the loud noise meant to block Hassan Khomeini's speech?)

0750 GMT: Press TV does not even wait for the end of Ahmadinejad's speech before cutting away.

0745 GMT: Is It Empty Behind Ahmadinejad's Back?

All in all, a pretty uneventful speech. There was the standard Ahmadinejad rhetoric denouncing "the West" and Israel (although no direct reference to Iran's nuclear programme), and one passage went after his opponents, promising that the Iranian nation --- which backed him in the 2009 election --- would "annihilate" them.

But it was pretty tame compared to what we anticipated. An EA correspondent goes farther, "Ahmadinejad has definitely run out of ideas. His speech is repetitive and contains frankly nothing worth mentioning."

Indeed, the takeaway point so far this morning is not Ahmadinejad's speech but those who were not there: apart from Revolutionary Guard commander Mohammad Ali Jafari, everyone must have been stuck in traffic. No Larijani brothers, no Rafsanjani, and no prominent "conservative" politicians.

0740 GMT: Ahmadinejad concludes by invoking Khomeini: "The Iranian nation will follow down the Imam's path." And he has a final swipe at "arrogant powers", saying, "We are not afraid of their fabricated power."

0730 GMT: The President is now using the Freedom Flotilla incident to invoke "weak" and "crazy" Israel and the US "under the influence of the criminal Zionists".

Ahmadinejad warns that, if Washington does not stop its support of Israel, it will be "the end of President Obama" and "the end of the US". Any "new aggressive move" will mean the "death of the Zionist regime".

0727 GMT: Ahmadinejad is now back to the narrative of Ayatollah Khomeini's triumph over the "arrogant powers", culminating in Iran's "final victory". Those who opposed Iran can now only "surrender to the righteous".

Highest-ranking VIP seen so far? Atomic energy chief Ali Akhbar Salehi.

An EA correspondent notes, "As a Persian saying would put it, 'It's empty behind his back.'"

0717 GMT: Now Ahmadinejad is going big-time against the "hypocrites" of the "Western powers" who challenged Ayatollah Khomeini.

And now he's moving to the "individuals" standing with those powers: "Those who are in league with enemeis cannot claim to follow Imam" --- "If they go awry...they will be removed from the scene by the people....Anyone who stands against this Revolution will be annihilated."

0715 GMT: Now Ahmadinejad goes after the opposition, those "selfish people" who tried to deny him the legitimacy of the election. He invokes Khomeini as referring to the "will of the people" and standing up to "arrogant powers".

0710 GMT: After several uneventful minutes, the President finally makes his play for legitimacy. He proclaims that the election witnessed 40 million Iranians --- 85% of eligible voters --- turning out in a "100% free election" to "set the record of democracy in the whole world".

And almost "25 million" voted for "their servant --- me".

0705 GMT: Nothing special so far in the Ahmadinejad speech. And no sign of major presences in the crowd --- which is muted so far --- although we did spot Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi in the VIP section.

0653 GMT: President Ahmadinejad is now addressing the crowd with greetings in Arabic. Press TV has started live coverage.

A large banner under the podium has a quote from Khomeini, always present on this occasion: "America Cannot Do a Damn Thing".

We're watching the crowd to see which VIPs are present.

0650 GMT: Some live shots now from IRINN of the crowd at Ayatollah Khomeini's shrine. An EA correspondent estimates "tens of thousands". possibly 100,000, but only the inner courtyard is shown.

0640 GMT: Economy Watch. According to Donya-e Eqtesad, Ahmadinejad advisor Saeed Mortazavi is fretting over the amount of contraband in the Iranian system: "Some 16 billion dollars worth of goods have been smuggled into Iran, while three billion dollars worth have been exported illegally during the last Iranian year."

0630 GMT: Karroubi Strikes. Mehdi Karroubi, who put out a lengthy video message yesterday, has also posted a forthright statement on Saham News:

[The regime officials] speak in a way as if Imam [Khomeini] belongs to them only and others have broken path with the Imam. Whoever objects to fraud in election is accused of being a Mossad or CIA agent. The fate of election is in the hands of Basijis and Sepah [Revolutionary Guards].

I am worried about the Islamic aspect of the regime. They have ruined the republic side of the regime in the name of Islam.

0600 GMT: Getting Priorities Right. Press TV have now elevated the remembrance of Ayatollah Khomeini by Iranians "in their millions" to its top story.

Still only a token reference to the Supreme Leader's speech as Press TV jumps to a statement by Hezbollah's Sheikh Nasrallah linking the Khomeini legacy to the "heroes of the Gaza aid flotilla".

0515 GMT: Trumped by the Flotilla? After all our morning analysis on the possible significance of today's Ahmadinejad/Khamenei speeches, a curious signal from Press TV.

The first 10 minutes of its morning news round-up is devoted not to Tehran Friday Prayers but to the aftermath of the Israeli raid on the Freedom Flotilla.

Only after the steady stream of Iranian and international condemnation of the attack does Press TV turn to the commemoration of the passing of Ayatollah Khomeini. There is the high-profile, and possibly risky, headline of Tehran police's prediction of more than two million at the shrine and on the streets, coming in "50,000 buses", but only a passing reference to the Supreme Leader's speech and none to Ahmadinejad's.

0500 GMT: Here We Go. Maybe.



This morning both President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader will use the 21st anniversary of the death of Ayatollah Khomeini to deliver speeches on the political situation. Speaking from Khomeini's shrine, Ayatollah Khamenei will lead Tehran's Friday Prayers, with Ahmadinejad offering an introduction.

As this is effectively the first regime rally since 22 Bahman (11 February), one public signal will be the size of the crowd for the occasion. There should be no problem filling the shrine --- an EA correspondent writes that it holds about 50,000 to 60,000 people --- but will there be a mass showing on the streets beyond?



That, however, may be the peripheral matter for propaganda; any debate over numbers tends to overlook the little fact that there is no big show of support for the regime between these high-profile occasions set a few months apart.

Instead, the immediate challenge will come in the content of the two speeches. Ahmadinejad showing up as the warm-up act is an important clue: an EA correspondent says an "introduction" of the Supreme Leader on this occasion is unusual. So the President's appearance, given his rhetoric and his need to establish his authority, points to a tough line on the opposition (and, possibly between the lines, to Ahmadinejad's opponents within the Iranian establishment).

But what about the Supreme Leader? EA staff note that he has two "hot" issues to handle: 1) the application for a march on 12 June, the anniversary of the 2009 election, by Mir Hossein Mousasvi and Mehdi Karroubi and 2) the maneouvres over the Tehran declaration on uranium enrichment by Iran, Brazil, and Turkey.

On the nuclear issue, the Supreme Leader has to decide between whether to hold out the prospect of continuing discussion with the "West" over a possible deal or, given the prospect of tougher sanctions, whether to tell Brazil and Turkey that there is no point in negotiating. The latter course of action would be a setback for Ahmadinejad, who still needs the prospect of a bargain on uranium for his political legitimacy, and a victory for the President's rival, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani.

That's important politics to handle, but still the primary issue for Khamenei is whether he offers any road back for the opposition, say, the line "repent and we will take you back", or whether he draws the line and says, "That's it. We're taking you down."

Does the Supreme Leader, for example, make an open declaration that the Green Movement and other "enemies" will not be allowed to gather on 12 June or does he avoid comment, letting Iran's bureaucracy turn down the Mousavi-Karroubi request?

And --- given the prospect that the opposition will still try to demonstrate --- does Khamenei, more than 11 months after his last Friday Prayer which said there would be no defiance of the election result, warn that this demonstration and its leaders will be crushed?

Latest Iran Video: Pro-Regime Crowd Shouts Down Khomeini Grandson (4 June)

Pro-regime crowds shout down Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, as he tries to speak at the Tehran Friday Prayers marking the anniversary of his grandfather's death:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5WiMuFHa4Q&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (4 June): Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, & A Showdown?