UPDATED Iran Snap Analysis: Waiting for the Crumbling?

UPDATED: An EA reader responds to our thoughts with a second account from Iran: "Our family are rural. This is EXACTLY what my relative found on the economy. 'They' [Iranian authorities] are terrifed of the sanctions."

For me, the most striking statement on Monday came not from a President or a Supreme Leader, not from a Mousavi or Karroubi, but from a phone call from Tehran, summarised by an EA reader:

"A friend reported rising unemployment and prices for food and other commodities: meat costs 12 Euro/kg (about $6.50 per pound), i.e., the price has doubled within a year. He also said that the people have adopted a policy of passive resistance, watching the economy crumble, so that the regime cracks down."

Only one report and, of course, it could be exaggerated or even wishful thinking. But on 7 Tir --- yesterday's anniversary of the 1981 bombing that killed many in Iran's leadership, leaving martyrs such as Ayatollah Beheshti --- there was little to counter that message.



President Ahmadinejad once again focused on (took refuge in?) the "international", making the pointless declaration that Iran would "punish" the West for sanctions by refusing to hold uranium enrichment discussions until late August. The Supreme Leader's office, hoping to obscure the doubts about Iran's judicial process, issued a tangential statement denouncing the "propaganda" of the opposition and foreign media.

That was about that. The only public gathering that was noted were "hundreds" of Iranian who made a synchronised appearance in front of the French embassy to chant against foreign perfidy and the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, who carried out the 1981 attack.

Meanwhile, throughout the day, the drip-drip-drip of  economic and political news, pointing to erosion and division, continued....

The Latest from Iran (28 June): Remembering 7 Tir?

1835 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. In a decree issued on Monday,the Supreme Leader gave amnesty to 708 prisoners,based on the recommendations of the Iranian judiciary. No indication that any of those whose sentences were commuted were political prisoners.

1800 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Finally, information arrives of French oil company Total's cessation of supplies to Iran (see 1020 GMT). "I can confirm that we have suspended [gasoline] sales to Iran," said spokesman Paul Floren.

1745 GMT: Loss of Expertise in State Department? Laura Rozen reports that John Limbert, the first ever Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iran Affairs, is leaving his post in July.

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The Latest from Iran (27 June): Grumbles

Limbert was distinctive in the Department because he was a fluent Persian speaker and held a Ph.D. in History and Middle Eastern Studies. He was one of 52 Americans held in the takeover of the US Embassy in Tehran in 1979-81.

Limbert is saying that he is stepping down because he has only a one-year leave of absence from his academic job at the US Naval Academy in Annapolis.

1435 GMT: Karroubi's 7 Tir Moment. Meeting families of those killed in the 1981 bombing, Mehdi Karroubi dec;ared, “Recent events and the attacks on the members of the Parliament and other senior and prominent political figures prove that those who are in power today are after eliminating and isolating the figures and revolutionary fellows. [They are after] not only a certain political party but even the independent individuals from the country and the scene of the Revolution."

Karroubi added, "Unity will never be achieved by words and slogans. Unity will never be achieved by applying pressure and force, arrests, long detentions, insults and disrespect of senior religious figures, intimidation and threats, unjust disqualifications, shutting down the press, preventing the activities of political parties, and using these kinds of ridiculous methods. Unity will not be achieved by calling the great nation of Iran 'dust and dirt'."

Karroubi concluded, "Comforting the families of victims, release of political prisoners, identifying and firm and legal confrontation with those who use violence against the people, lifting the ban on media and legal activities of the political parties, freedom of speech, tolerance and listening to the opposition as long as they don’t use weapons, and the return to the principles of the Constitution and the high values of Imam [Khomeini] and the Revolution can be the essential steps toward establishing unity in the society.”

1430 GMT: Larijani the Nationalist. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani may be feuding with the President, but he is also trying to match Ahmadinejad phrase-for-phrase for Iranian defiance of the West. He has used a speech to a crowd in western Iran to address "the West": "You will have to bury your wish for shutting Iran's nuclear activities. The era that you could change conditions in Iran has ended. Today the (Iranian) people protect their national achievements and lay emphasis on them."

1325 GMT: The Universities Row. Rooz is claiming that, at the first meeting of Azad University trustees since the Parliament v. President argument over control, Ahmadinejad's appointed representatives were not allowed into the meeting. And Mir Hossein Mousavi was an invited guest.

Javan Online, linked to the Revolutionary Guard, is claiming that Rafsanjani and Mousavi have met to plot over the issue.

1310 GMT: Ahmadinejad "We Will, We Will Punish You". Unsurprising news of the day --- the President has chosen on 7 Tir to devote his attention to foreign challenges.

In an announcement which will no doubt bring much gnashing of teeth in Washington (or not), President Ahmadinejad told a news conference that Iran was prepared to return to uranium enrichment talks but only by late August, during the second half of the Muslim festival of Ramadan.

"It's a punishment to teach them a lesson to know how to have a dialogue with nations," he said. And he added the chest-pumping frosting on the cake with a warning to any power thinking of inspecting Iranian ships: "If they make the slightest mistake we will definitely retaliate."

Ahmadinejad's most notable reference to the internal situation was to claim, in the face of tougher US and UN sanctions, "If we decide today, we can halve our gasoline consumption overnight without damaging our economic growth."

1150 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. RAHANA reports that heavy prison sentences have been handed down to four student activists in Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign.

1040 GMT: And Now Khamenei.... The supposed highlight from today's statement by the Supreme Leader: "One of the big dangers is that political propaganda by various parties, newspapers, and foreign media will affect the right channel of judgment and legal proceedings."

1030 GMT: Posing for 7 Tir. Ahh, here we go. "Hundreds" of Iranians have gathered outside the French Embassy in Tehran in response to a demonstration in Paris last week by the National Council of Resistance of Iran.

The NCRI is the overseas political committee for the People's Mohajedin Organization of Iran and the "terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO). The MKO carried out the bombing on 7 Tir (28 June) in 1981 that killed 73 leading officials of the Islamic Republic.

1020 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. A spokesman for Spain's largest oil company Repsol has confirmed that it is withdrawing from a contract to develop part of the South Pars gas field in Iran. Repsol's partner, Royal Dutch Shell, has declined to confirm whether it is withdrawing, although a spokesman said it will comply with any international trade restrictions.

(This is all window-dressing. Repsol and Shell suspended plans months ago, and Iran has already moved to give the projects to Iranian companies, including firms connected with the Revolutionary Guard.)

Britain's Financial Times is also putting out a report that France's Total is halting gasoline/petrol sales to Iran but, curiously, has no source for the claim.

0854 GMT: In Case You're Wondering. Why have I not been posting updates on the on-again, off-again, maybe-someday statements about an Iranian aid flotilla to Gaza? Well, because I never thought this was an initiative likely to come off, amidst the politics of Tehran and other countries.

For those keeping score, the latest report is that the Iranian Red Crescent has cancelled the sailing of a ship, blaming Egypt as well as Israel for preventing passage.

0850 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch (cont.). More on Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement for 7 Tir (see 0720 GMT). ...

The pro-reformist Radio Zamaneh publishes extracts and has no doubt that Rafsanjani is aiming at those in power: “The enemies have diversified and enemies disguised as friends have infiltrated our ranks....Divisiveness is called honesty, insult is called candour, lies are called tact, slander is called boldness and slogans are called insight.”

0745 GMT: The Regime and 7 Tir (So Far). There are no significant headlines in Fars News marking the 1981 bombing, and the Islamic Republic News Agency's reference is defensive, to say the least: a "member of the Assembly of Experts" says that the memory of Ayatollah Beheshti, slain on 7 Tir, does not belong to any one group.

0730 GMT: Economy Watch. Iranian state media are headlining the opening of a new phase of a major steel complex in Natanz, with President Ahmadinejad attending the ceremony.

Not-so-happy news, carried by Iranian Labor News Agency, is that malnutrition amongst children has risen 3 percent during the Ahmadinejad Government.

0725 GMT: Larijani Watch. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, continuing his manoeuvres against President Ahmadinejad, has asserted that "the independence of judiciary"" has not yet been seen.

Larijani's brother Sadegh is the head of the judiciary.

0720 GMT: Rafsanjani's Statement. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has said, in a meeting with the families of the martyrs of the 1981 bombing, that today anyone who causes division among the people --- even if it claim good intentions --- is making a great and strategic mistake: “Today in a situation that we need unity more than before some visible and invisible hands are playing the division drum.”

As always, those who cause division are not specifically identified by Rafsanjani; however, he did give an important signal by strongly condemning the attacks against senior clerics and the family of the late Ayatollah Khomeini by pro-government groups.

0700 GMT: Today is the 29th anniversary of the bombing in Tehran that killed 73 leading officials of the young Islamic Republic, including the head of judiciary, Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti.

We'll be having a look to see how the day is commemorated, but early signs are that it will be accompanied, if not overshadowed, by the tensions within the current Republic. The Beheshti family, in a pointed protest, have already cancelled a memorial ceremony, and reformist groups and opposition groups have pointed to 7 Tir as a reminder of the betrayals of the Government. As the family of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri declare today, "It is not the Revolution that eats its children, but rather the opportunists that were opposed to the Revolution in the past, who change colour and destroy the children of the Revolution.”

Meanwhile....

The Latest from Iran (27 June): Grumbles

1815 GMT: Rafsanjani (and Supreme Leader) Watching. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani chaired a meeting today about the Islamic Azad Universities. That might not be a significant event were it not for the timing --- the discussion takes place days after the President's move to assert control over the chain of universities, interpreted by some as an attack on Rafsanjani's political base.

Meanwhile, Ayatollah Khamenei gave a speech today at Tehran's Abuzar Mosque, explaining that the first duty of women is motherhood.

1510 GMT: Hmmm.... Iran's deputy head of judiciary, Ebrahim Raeesi, as quoted by Press TV:

"The major violators of human rights are Western states. If the true face of Western countries which claim to be custodians of human rights is shown, you will see that people's rights are violated most severely in Europe, the US and Israel”....He said Iran has committed itself to protecting people's rights as it firmly believes in religious and Islamic principles.

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The Latest from Iran (26 June): Absolute Security?

1410 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz reports concerns about the health of detained journalist Isa Saharkhiz in the clinic of Rejai Shahr Prison.

1405 GMT: The Oil Squeeze (cont.). One more piece of information, courtesy of Iranian Labor News Agency: Iran's oil exports fell almost 50% from 1979 to 2008.

1350 GMT: All is Well Alert. Irrespective of the news in this update, Habibollah Asgarowladi is on hand to assure, "Iran has had never a better position in the world than now."

1340 GMT: The Oil Squeeze (cont.). As we learn that Iran's oil revenues have dropped 24 percent over the last year (see 0945 GMT), Roshanak Taghavi provides essential context and analysis for The Guardian.

Taghavi reveals from a source that about 35 million barrels of oil are in offshore storage tankers. This in itself is not unusual --- Iran's summer holdings have been as high as 60 million barrels --- but the political and economic situation has changed:

What is unique this year, and a rising concern for Iran's oil ministry, is the decision by some of the country's important "eastern" customers, including China, India and Japan – who are among the main purchasers of Iran's heavier grades of crude oil – to either reduce their formal term contracts with the Islamic Republic in favour of better prices from other oil producers, or to cut some of their contracts completely.

1335 GMT: President v. Parliament (University Edition). Golnaz Esfandiari of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has written a useful overview of the rising tension between Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Parliament over control of Islamic Azad University.

1330 GMT: Visit of the Day. Mehdi Karroubi has visited filmmaker/journalist Mohammad Nourizad, journalist Emaduddin Baghi, and former Vice President and MP Hossein Marashi, all of whom are on bail or temporary release from prison.

1324 GMT: The Hijab Referendum? The head of Iran's police, Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, has announced that a poll will be conducted on the enforcement of hijab in every province.

Not quite sure how Ahmadi-Moghaddam gets the authority to declare public referenda, but I am even more vexed by this question....

Given that President Ahmadinejad has been in conflict with other members of the Iranian establishment over the enforcement of hijab, what will be the announced outcome from the ballot boxes?

1320 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activist and former Army member Firez Yousefi has been arrested, allegedly for giving away secrets in interviews with foreign media.

1215 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The former mayor of Ghasr Shirin, Ghodrat Mohammadi, has been released from detention.

1200 GMT: The Battle Within (Hijab Edition). More feuding within the establishment over the President's criticism of "morality police". Partou, the weekly publication associated with Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, has sharply attacked Ahmadineajad:"Is the hijab situation now better than under former governments?"

And Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami has made the bold declaration, "I insist on all Islamic rules, especially hijab, even if I have to lose my head for it."

1100 GMT: Parliament v. President. Member of Parliament Ali Motahari, a leading critic of the Government, has claimed that pro-Ahmadinejad Mehdi Kuchakzadeh had a central role in this week's organised rally in front of the Majlis, pressuring Parliament to cede control of Islamic Azad University to the President. Motahari said Kuchakzadeh "even threw a paperclip container at me".

1040 GMT: Messages for 7 Tir. Tomorrow is 7 Tir, a date notable in modern Iranian history for  a 1981 bombing that killed 73 leading officials of the Islamic Republic, including Chief Justice Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti.

The family of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has put out a message: how can you mourn the dead in an atmosphere which knows nothing except violence?

It is reported that the late Ayatollah Beheshti's family will not hold a memorial service for 7 Tir. Ayatollah Behesti's son, Mousavi chief advisor Alireza Beheshti, has been imprisoned during the post-election crisis.

1000 GMT: Happy Father's Day. On Friday, Father's Day in Iran, Mir Hossein Mousavi met the families of detainees Alireza Beheshti Shirazi, Arab Mazar, and Ghorban Behzadian-Nejad.

The central and youth committees of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front also met the families of political prisoners.

0945 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Fars reports, without citing the source, that Iran’s oil sales from March 2009 to February 2010 fell by 24.3 percent, from $78.65 to $59.55 billion dollars.

Fars softened the blow by adding that non-oil exports rose by 12.7 percent to $19 billion.

0710 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The three-year prison sentence of law student Abolfazl Ghasemi, who was detained during the Ashura protests of 27 December, has been upheld.

0705 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics. Video, claiming to be new footage of the attack earlier this month on the houses of Grand Ayatollah Sane'i and the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, has been posted.

0655 GMT: Breaking the Quiet? Ahh, this might stir things up. Looks like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has delivered a statement on the lines of "we need executives who implement the law correctly".

Executives, not Parliament. And judiciary, take that as a directive from y9ur President.

0630 GMT: It appears to be a very quiet morning in Iran.

Iranian state media is preoccupied with criticism of the latest US sanctions. Most of the showpiece reaction is cut-and-paste defiance, as in the statement from Iran's armed forces, "The ploy of imposing sanctions on the Iranian nation is ineffective because the establishment and the people have succeeded in finding their path."

Still, there is a nice touch in one featured critique, from Alaeedin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee: "The US move to impose sanctions on Iran is in fact imposing sanctions on their own firms."

On the international front, Tehran is claiming --- after a phone call between Brazil's Foreign Minister Celso Amorim and his Iranian counterpart, Manouchehr Mottaki --- that the two will meet Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in the near-future to discuss further steps over Iran's uranium enrichment.

Inside Iran, there is growing concern over the health of teacher and activist Ali Akbar Baghani, who has been detained for more than two months.

Shanghai Power Politics: China Shuts Out Iran (Shan Shan)

Two weeks ago, the 10th Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Council summit, held in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, approved the SCO Rules of Procedure and the regulation on procedure for future membership expansion.

Before the summit, Chinese diplomats ritually pointed out that approval of the admission regulations was the first step in forming the basis for a future expansion of SCO membership and would serve as a cornerstone of the organization's rules for external links.

Behind this formality, however, was a more significant story: for now, Iran will not allowed to  join the organisation.

The ostensible reason was that the SCO's regulations proscribe that “any country under UN sanctions cannot be admitted”. At the time of the meeting, Iran was subject to a 4th round of restrictions; a few days after the meeting, the UN Security Council passed yet another resolution.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not attend the summit, although he visited the Shanghai Expo and took part in celebrations at the Iranian pavilion on June 11. The Chinese Foreign Ministry maintained that Ahmadinejad was only visiting the country to attend the Expo, but analysts said he “is here to seek more support from China to water down fresh sanctions”.

The rejection of Iran's membership is far from the entire story, of course. The relationship between China and Iran is still stable. "There is no reason to control or weaken the relationship (with China)”,  Ahmadinejad told a news conference after his visit to the Expo.
Moreover, this summit focused on economic cooperation and security issues in Central Asia, especially in Afghanistan, such as drug trafficking, terrorism ,and organized crime. Besides, the unrest in in Kyrgyzstan is another hot issue at this summit.

The fact remains, however, that Iran was kept at arm's distance. Zhang Xiao, deputy director-general of the Foreign Ministry's department of European and Central Asian affairs, indicated that the SCO is only considering the legal basis for expanding membership, indicating that there is a long way to go before formal accession will even be contemplated.

Furthermore, Beijing is more cautious than Russia, the other main power of the SCO. According to China Daily, Chinese President Hu Jintao told his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev that SCO cooperation and exchange with outside countries should be done in a proper and stable manner, and on the basis of improving the strength of the bloc. "Blind expansion will spoil it (SCO) with excessive enthusiasm".

Pang Zhongying, a senior expert on world politics at Renmin University of China, assessed, "For a regional bloc, it is definitely not the more the better. Now the European Union has 27 members, and we can see more complex problems. The same reason also resulted in a loose APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum). One of the approaches to ruin a bloc is encouraging it to admit more members."

Add the complicated situation in central Asia and the main concerns of the SCO, and it appears that Iran will be observing the group from outside for some time to come.

The Latest from Iran (25 June): The Important Issues

1650 GMT: Imprisonment and Abuse. RAHANA publishes the story, which we have been following for 24 hours, on an attack on Zoya Samadi, the daughter-in-law of imprisoned labour activist Mansour Osanloo.

Intelligence Ministry agents reportedly accosted Samadi in public view, pulling off her headscarf, beating her, and dragging her by the hair. Handcuffed and blindfolded, she was taken to an undisclosed location for four hours and questioned for four hours, allegedly being told, "You must guarantee that if Osanloo is released from prison, he will never remain in Iran and that he will cease all activities.”

According to Osanloo's wife, Samadi was then left under a Tehran bridge. Her assailants warned, "You are not to inform anyone about this incident, nor are you allowed to file any form of complaint.”

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1535 GMT: The Divergent Tale of Two Political Prisoners, Two British Universities. Ian Black in The Guardian has an interesting profile of the cases of Mohammad Jalaeipour, an Oxford University Ph.D. candidate re-arrested on 14 June, and Ehsan Abdoh-Tabrizi, a Ph.D. student at Durham University who was imprisoned in January and has spent more than 50 days in solitary confinement. Black compares the very different approaches taken by Oxford and Durham officials to publicity over the treatment of the political prisoners.

1525 GMT: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Philosopher of Our Time. No, if you like your philosophy simple and to the point, then it might be best to leave behind today's Friday Prayer with global bodies that do not really exist and an Iranian unity that must be present even if it is not obvious. Instead, let's get our 21st-century Renaissance from the President via the Iranian Labor News Agency:

A long and black chapter in the history of humanity is coming to a close and an age of enlightenment is about to start. The arrogant powers have stood against the divine force throughout history and today the arrogant regime in the United States is the biggest obstacle against the cause of the prophets.

1500 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Summary. Hojatoleslam Kazem Seddiqi --- our favourite "women's breasts = earthquakes" cleric --- took the podium today.

No references to dangerous females this morning, however, as far as we know. Instead, Seddiqi was preoccupied with the recent UN sanctions against Iran, or rather, he was interested in the pronouncements of an invisible organisation: "This approach showed that the United Nations does not exist and that the Security Council is an 'anti-security' council."

If that's a bit too metaphysical to grasp --- ""It appears that you have yet to know the Iranian nation" --- Seddiqi was ready to use the international situation to whip up his own realities out of the Tehran air: "[The] Iranian nation will not only show resilience in the face of such sanctions but will also develop more resistance and solidarity."

0830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Photojournalist Majid Saeedi, arrested last June, has been sentenced to three years in prison.

Shiva Nazar Ahari, human rights activist and member of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters detained since June 2009, has written a letter to her father: "You taught me not to break."

The families of detainees held in Gohardasht Prison, have written to Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabi: "Don't allow more injustices against our beloved."

The Iranian Teachers Trade Association has issued a statement protesting the continued detention of its leading members.

0825 GMT: The Attacks on the Clergy. The five daughter of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri have issued a statement challenging the recent assault on the Montazeri house by pro-regime activists.

0755 GMT: We begin today with an analysis from Josh Shahryar, "The Real Race for Iran: Human Rights v. Tehran's Defenders".

"Western" headlines are likely to be on last night's US Congress vote for stricter sanctions --- the Senate by 99-0, the House of Representatives by 408-8 --- aimed especially at Iran's financial and energy sectors. Meanwhile....

Khamenei Tries to Hold It Together

Writing for Rooz, Mohammad Reza Yazdanpanah takes a look at this week's statements by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and sees a Supreme Leader struggling to keep his flock together.

The website also sees a continuing challenge to the legitimacy of Khamenei's leadership in a year of statements by clerical and opposition figures.

The Battle Within

The Vice Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, has given a speech warning of the danger to the establishment from "radicals" --- and he doesn't mean "radicals" of the Green Movement.

Mostafa Pourmohammadi, former Minister of the Interior, is worried about the threat to Iran from "lawlessness" --- but whose lawlessness does he mean?

Defending Political Parties

It looks like there is a twist in the tale of the attempt to ban Iran's reformist political parties such as the Islamic Iran Participation Front and the Mohajedin of Islamic Revolution.

Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi warns against lawlessness as one of the country's biggest dangers.

The conservative Morteza Nabavi has noted that President Ahmadinejad himself came to power through a political party, and key judiciary official Mohammad Javad Larijani has argued that party activities should be developed beyond elections, as they guarantee the future of the Islamic Republic.

Parliament (and  a Cleric) v. President

Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani has denounced this week's demonstrations by Basij and students in front of Parliament, challenging the Majlis attempt to defy President Ahmadinejad and assert its control of Islamic Azad University.

Meanwhile, we have gotten information of how heated the debate was inside the Parliament, with heated exchanges and heckling, insults, and even reports of a "fist fight".