The Latest from Iran (7 June): Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting

2145 GMT: The Khomeini Fall-Out. To end the day as we started it: despite the criticism of the Government over the harassment of Hassan Khomeini last Friday, "hardline" newspapers continue to press the campaign against Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson. Raja News continues to push the story of a "nasty encounter" between Hassan Khomeini and Minister of Interior Mostafa Mohammad Najjar (using the belittling name of "Hassan Mostafavi" for Khomeini), with President Ahmadinejad leading discussions on an appropriate response.

NEW Iran Analysis: The Unexpected Fight Over “Khomeini”
NEW Iran Analysis: One Year After the Election (Shafaee)
NEW Iran Feature: Music and Resistance (Fathi)
Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi on Khomeini, the Rule of Law, and Protest in 2010 (4 June)
Iran Document: The Supreme Leader’s Speech (4 June)
The Latest from Iran (6 June): The Fallout from Friday

2130 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Badrosadat Mofidi has been released from detention.


2120 GMT: Larijani v. Ahmadinejad (cont.). Back from an academic break to find yet another development in the political contest between the President and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani. Countering the assertion of Larijani that many Government actions were not in accordance with Parliament's legislation (other MPs have claimed up to 130 Government measures are in dispute), Ahmadinejad has claimed that three Parliamentary bills are in violation of the law: “the plan to make changes to the law of development and support of housing, the plan for admission of students in vocational and technical schools as well as teachers colleges, and finally miscellaneous accessions to budgets approved by the parliament without observing provisions set forth in the Islamic Republic Constitution".

1605 GMT: The Dissent Within (cont. --- see 0955 GMT): Rooz Online follows up on stories of Principlist discontent with President Ahmadinejad.

The website starts from alleged remarks by Ahmadinejad that “political parties should not interfere in government affairs” and his chief aide, Esfandiar Rahim Mashai, that “the principlists have crossed Ahmadinejad”.

Seyed Reza Akrami, a member of the Combatant Clergy Association, responded to Rahim Mashai, “One year has passed since the election, and officials shouldn’t make such statements that only fuel differences....Such statements from the nation’s executive officials have no benefit and only creates problems, divisions and difference among the principlists....Instead of talking about scenarios such as ‘crossing Ahmadinejad’, the officials should be trying to find solutions to problems that are rampant in society.”

Rooz claims the political director of the Iran Hezbollah Society, Hossein Kanani-Moghaddam, asserted, “Many principlists are no longer with Ahmadinejad. On the other hand, people who weren’t with him before are now supporting him for their own benefit.”

1550 GMT: The 22 Khordaad Marches. Rah-e-Sabz reports that the Ministry of the Interior has rejected two applications --- from the Islamic Iran Participation Front and the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution --- for demonstrations on 12 June and have asked for further information from six other reformist groups.

1420 GMT: Mousavi & Karroubi Meet. From Advar News, via the Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi:

Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi met with each other....In this meeting the two Green leaders discussed the incident [which] happened on June 4th in the ceremony commemorating the anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini’s passing when a group of organized pro-government thugs insulted Seyyed Hassan Khomeini, grandson of late Ayatollah Khomeini, so that he had to end his speech and leave the podium. Also, according to reports in this meeting, the two leaders made some new decisions regarding the protest on June 12th for the anniversary of rigged presidential election. Details of this meeting will be published soon.

1315 GMT: Executions. A 14th hanging today (see 0940 GMT) has taken place in Isfahan.

1310 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Poet, human rights activist & blogger Reza Akvanian has been sentenced to one year in prison with five more years suspended.

1300 GMT: Khomeini Fall-Out. The reformist Assembly of Combatant Clergymen, in a meeting last night chaired by former President Mohammad Khatami, issued a statement strongly condemning "the insults made on Seyyed Hassan Khomeini" at last Friday's ceremony. The clerics asked, "How is it, that when someone makes a slightest comment or does an interview criticizing the government, they will be arrested instantly, but that the authorities do nothing to stop these kinds of attacks...by a group of organized plainclothes individuals?"

1045 GMT: Conversation of the Day. From an article by Ali Chenar, “The Meaning of ‘V’: Reflections on a Moral Triumph”:

TAXI DRIVER: "Agha, do you remember what people did last year here?"
CHENAR: "Yes, yes I do!"
TAXI DRIVER: "I could not believe my eyes."
CHENAR: "True, many couldn't.... Here is my stop. Thank you…."
As Chenar hands a few notes to the driver for the fare, he pauses for a moment and asks:

CHENAR: "Do you think it is over, sir?"
TAXI DRIVER: "Hell no! It is not over. Do not think like that, my lad. It has just begun!"

1030 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. There are reports that teachers’ union activist Mahmoud Beheshti Langeroudi, recently released from detention, has been re-arrested.

1000 GMT: The Executions. More than 200 women’s rights and human rights activists have issued a statement condemning the executions of five Iranians, four of them Kurdish, on 9 May and demanding a halt to further hangings of Kurds on death row.

0955 GMT: The Dissent Within. The Green website Rah-e-Sabz offers more details of the warning handed out by the Principlist party, primarily by MP Hamid Rasaie, to Ali Motahari over Motahari’s condemnation of President Ahmadinejad. Complementing the line offered by some clerics and reformists, Motahari said that Friday’s furour over Seyed Hassan Khomeini emanated from problems with the 2009 election.

And, in an extraordinary remark if true, pro-Ahmadinejad Hojatoleslam Ali Asghari has referred to “white-bearded hardliners” and continued with a message to Mahdavi Kani to Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani: “Tell him the time of grandpas is long over.”

0940 GMT: Executions. Reports are coming in that 13 prisoners were hung this morning at Ghezelhesar Prison. Another 13 people are still in “quarantine” awaiting possible execution.

Those put to death were convicted of drug offences.

0935 GMT: Reformist member of Parliament Mohammad Reza Tabesh, referring to the shout-down of Seyed Hassan Khomeini, has suggested that “if [the Government] cannot control this small group, they should at least apologize”. Claiming that the Supreme Leader “is not amused” about the incident, Tabesh suggested that Friday’s “violations are due to electoral quarrels”.

Even the firmly pro-Government Resalat has declared that accusing Hassan Khomeini of being against velayat –e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority) is an “injustice”. MP Mohammad Kousari has warned, “Without [Ayatollah] Khomeini, we lose our identity.”

0930 GMT: Activists claim that Hassan Khomeini has rejected allegations that he attacked Minister of Interior Mostafa Mohammad Najjar. To our knowledge, there has been no corroboration of the story from Javan, the publication connected to the Revolutionary Guards.

0925 GMT: Green websites are circulating the call of students of Ahvaz, Kermanshah, Tabriz, Lahijan, and Mashaad Universities for rallies on 22 Khordaad (12 June), the anniversary of the election.

0720 GMT:  We open this morning with three specials: Nazila Fathi writes about music and resistance, Masoud Shafaee looks at Iran one year after the election, and Scott Lucas assesses "the fight over Khomeini".

Iran Analysis: One Year After the Election (Shafaee)

Masoud Shafaee writes for The Guardian of London:

At the beginning of June last year, a thaw in Iranian-American relations looked increasingly likely. President Obama had been inaugurated less than five months earlier, promising the leaders of the Islamic Republic that America would "extend" its hand if the Iranians were willing to "unclench" their fists. Having been vilified as part of an "axis of evil" by the Bush administration, the Iranian leadership suddenly faced a harder time painting the United States, with its charismatic new president and his middle name of Hussein, as "the Great Satan". Obama even recognised Iran's right to enrich uranium, something the previous administration had refused to do.

In Iran, a similar political realignment was under way. The country not only faced staggering inflation and unemployment, but had had three sets of UN Security Council sanctions imposed on it since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took office. With two-thirds of its population under the age of 30 and pressing for more social freedoms, the incumbent president was by no means a popular candidate heading into the 2009 election.



In the final weeks of the campaign, the progressive-minded youth mobilised en masse to ensure that he would not be re-elected. As Mir Hossein Mousavi, the main reform candidate and eventual figurehead of the Green movement, put it just before election day, the atmosphere in the country was "similar to the first days after … the revolution".

But Mousavi was by no means a foe of the establishment either. Having served as prime minister for almost the whole of the eight-year Iran-Iraq war and under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the Islamic Republic's founding father, Mousavi had the respect of many in the establishment. In fact, he was one of only four candidates not disqualified from running for president in 2009 by the Guardian Council, the regime's constitutional vetting body. Even at present, Mousavi stresses the importance of staying true to Khomeini's vision and within the constitution's framework.

Which is what made the rigging of last year's election so remarkable. For the Islamic Republic, Mousavi was the right man at the right time: a former revolutionary suited to steering Iran through rapprochement with a remarkably different White House. With respect to Iran's nuclear programme, the core issue guiding its foreign policy, he openly statedthat he would not compromise on the country's inalienable rights. President Obama even posited just five days after the contested election that policy differences between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad "may not be as great as [had] been advertised".

Policy differences aside, the Islamic Republic's image would have greatly benefited from a Mousavi presidency. In a region dominated by authoritarian Arab states, Iran's theocracy has always been the exception. What's more, the democratic elements of the Islamic Republic's constitution – however tattered they may now be – have been a source of the regime's authority. The election of a socially progressive reformist over a far-right incumbent would have done much for its perceived legitimacy. Perhaps this is why the vote was so lopsidedly fixed.

Driven by motives of political survival, a fringe "New Right" ultimately took Iran hostage. Not wanting to relinquish power through its loss at the polls, the current administration has not only weakened the regime, but in the face of an enduring and growing opposition, has perhaps hastened its demise.

On the nuclear front, Iran is facing a fourth set of Security Council sanctions –the first since Obama took office. The uranium-for-fuel deal that the White House was proposing back in February is now being rebuffed after Iran agreed to come to the table following Turkish and Brazilian mediation. And with the hastily rigged election, the Islamic Republic has suffered considerable harm to its image and to its clout. Ahmadinejad's second term was widely seen as illegitimate from the start, and the regime chose not only to reaffirm the election results but to severely repress the opposition. Whatever "democratic" lustre the Islamic republic once had has surely now been irreparably tarnished.

More consequentially, perhaps, the regime has lost its religious standing in the eyes of countless Muslims. In a region with an increasing number of devout followers – be they Sunni or Shia – it was always the Islamic component of the "Islamic republic" that earned Iran admiration outside its borders. A year after the election, in the face of overwhelming evidence of state-sanctioned murder, torture and even rape, the regime's moral authority is in shreds. Several of Iran's grand ayatollahs have even publicly blasted the government during the last year. As the late dissident cleric Grand Ayatollah Hussein-Ali Montazeri, the former heir apparent to Khomeini, put it: "This regime is neither Islamic nor a republic."

Today, many are speculating about the death of the Green movement. Following a brutal crackdown, the massive protests seen in June tapered off, before being definitively suppressed on the Islamic Republic's 31st anniversary in February. Yet while the streets may now be emptier, the Green movement is far from finished. As the Iranian saying goes, "There is fire under the ash."

Read rest of article....

Iran Feature: Music and Resistance (Fathi)

Nazila Fathi reports in The New York Times:

Parisa remembers the precise moment she heard her first song by Shahin Najafi, an Iranian rapper living in exile in Germany, on her illegal satellite television in the small city of Karadj, west of Tehran.

“His words cut through me like a knife,” she said.

Parisa, a 24-year-old university student, stayed up long after midnight one night, when the Internet connection was faster, and spent six hours downloading Mr. Najafi’s songs to share with her friends.



Since Iranian authorities have cracked down on the demonstrations that rocked the country after a disputed election a year ago this month, a flood of protest music has rushed in to comfort and inspire the opposition. If anything, as the street protests have been silenced, the music has grown louder and angrier.

The government has tried all manner of methods to mute what has become known as “resistance music.” They have blocked Web sites used to download songs and shut down social networking sites, which were also used by the opposition to organize protests and distribute videos of government and paramilitary violence.

In April, a shadowy pro-government group that calls itself “the cyber army” shut downMr. Najafi’s Web site. The group, which hacked Iranian Twitter in December, left a message saying the site had been “conquered by anonymous soldiers of Imam Zaman,” a reference to the Shiite messiah.

In late December, the authorities detained Shahram Nazeri, a prominent Persian classical musician who had recorded the song “We Are Not Dirt or Dust,” a tart response to the words President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad used to characterize the antigovernment protesters. The government briefly took his passport, detained him and intimidated him; he has not released anything since.

But clamping down on music in the digital age is like squeezing a wet sponge.

Protest songs are downloaded on the Internet, sold in the black market or shared via Bluetooth, a wireless technology Iranians have adapted to share files on cellphones, bypassing the Internet altogether. Fans have also made dozens of homemade videos, setting montages of protest images to music and posting them online.

Read rest of article....

The Latest from Iran (5 June): Is That All There Is?

1945 GMT: The Follow-Up to Friday. Mir Hossein Mousavi has issued a statement condemning the treatment of Seyed Hassan Khomeini during his speech yesterday.

1915 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An appeals court has approved a five-year prison sentence for Rajabali (Babak) Dashab. Dashab, arrested during the Ashura protests on 27 December, had been given a six term.

1715 GMT: Re-packaging the Supreme Leader. An interesting twist in Khabar Online's coverage of the Khamenei speech: rather than note his threats against the opposition, the website says he emphasised that "even enemies and dissidents have to be treated with justice and piety".

NEW Iran Special: The Regime Disappoints, So It’s Over to the Opposition
NEW Iran Document: Detained Filmmaker Nourizad Writes the Supreme Leader
Latest Iran Video: Pro-Regime Crowd Shouts Down Khomeini Grandson (4 June)
Iran Snap Analysis: The Meaning of Today’s Khamenei-Ahmadinejad Show
The Latest from Iran (4 June): Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, & A Showdown?

1545 GMT: Beating the Oil Squeeze? Press TV reports that Iran, now accepting the withdrawal of Royal Dutch Shell and Spain's Repsol from Phases 13 and 14 of the South Pars oil and gas field as definiite, is giving the project to the Iranian Khatam-ol-Osea Consortium for $5 billion.


1530 GMT: Jamming Neda. Voice of America reports that Iranian authorities jammed a documentary, For Neda, about Neda Agha-Soltan, who was killed during last year's post-election demonstrations.

The documentary, produced by Home Box Office in the US, was shown on Wednesday. It is due for re-broadcast on 12 June, the anniversary of the Presidential election, and 20 June, the anniversary of Neda's death, and it is also available on the Internet.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F48SinuEHIk[/youtube]

1515 GMT: More Support for Hassan Khomeini. In a letter to Seyed Hassan Khomeini, Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani has condemned Friday's disruption of Khomeini's speech as a systematic attack planned by extremists “to take revenge from Imam (Khomeini,Hassan's grandfather) and his followers".

1500 GMT: We reported yesterday that human rights activist Saba Vasefi had escaped arrest when she was away during a security forces' raid on her home.

The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran now reports, from a "reliable source", that Vasefi was hit by a motorcycle on Tuesday when she was in Shahryar, near Tehran, to check on a death penalty case. Vasefi struck her head on the road and is now in a coma.

1250 GMT: Reacting to Friday. The prominent conservative member of Parliament Ali Motahari has said that the disruption of Seyed Hassan Khomeini’s speech was "very sad" and "against freedom of speech that is one of the principles of Islamic Revolution".

Significantly, Motahari accused President Ahmadinejad of organising the sabotage of Khomeini's appearance.

Motahari said, "Ahmadinejad is like a spoilt child in a family where the more he annoys others, the more he is appreciated by the parents. If judiciary had put [Mehdi] Karroubi, [Mir Hossein] Mousavi, and Ahmadinejad all on trial, this would not have happened."

The Islamic Society of Tehran University has requested urgent action to be taken against those "small groups" who interrupted Hassan Khomeini, claiming the disruption was because of the hatred that the hardliners have for Imam Khomeini.

1245 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. A story that slipped by us earlier this week....

Parveneh Osanloo, the wife of labour activist Mansour Osanloo, has said that her husband has been put in solitary confinement inside the Revolutionary Guard's Ward on new charges of “relations with state opposition groups”.

1240 GMT: Yesterday's Arrests. Tehran Police Chief Hossein Sajedinia has said 19 people were arrested during the commemorations of the death of Ayatollah Khomeini.

0715 GMT: Forgive the blatant "Western" cultural reference in the title of the post, but this was my immediate thought after watching the regime's setpiece yesterday for the commemoration of Ayatollah Khomeini's death. We have an analysis of the day, from the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei speeches to the unexpected "highlight" with the shout-down of Khomeini's grandson, in a separate entry.

In other news on an anti-climactic slow day (so far)....

Dastgheib's Support for Mousavi

The English translation of Ayatollah Dashgheib's letter to Mir Hossein Mousavi has been published:

Greetings,

I saw your statement which was published on Ordibehesht 23, 1389 (13 May 2010) and as I was certain of your religiousness, I am certain now too and I see you as someone with the love for Islam, Quran, and the Prophet’s and Holy Imam’s way of life, with good Islamic manner, devoted to Iran’s Islamic society, the establishment and the Islamic Republic of Iran, possessing honesty and purity, far from lies, betrayals and deceptions, and free from the love for earthly possessions and being in power.

What you stated about various issues are in accordance with the religious teachings and in compliance with the Constitution and the slogan of “independence, freedom and the Islamic Republic”. I, as a citizen, consider you useful and rather necessary for the continuation of the Islamic Revolution that was carried out by the people and the leadership of Imam Khomeini.

I am amazed by the people who considered themselves just but call your remarks, which are supported by reasons, deviation from the establishment and –-- may God have mercy on us –-- in confrontation with the establishment, and –-- may God have more mercy on us –-- accuse you unjustly, hideously and irrationally. These are disasters for you and us, and we should say, “We are all from God and we will return to him” about them.

Political Prisoner Watch

Women's rights activist Mahboubeh Abbasgholizadeh has been sentenced to 2 1/2 years in jail and 30 lashes for "acts against national security". Abbasgholizadeh was arrested on 21 December on her way to the funeral of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri.

The Latest from Iran (4 June): Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, & A Showdown?

2010 GMT: Picture of the Day? Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan and former President Hashemi Rafsanjani during the speech of the Supreme Leader:

NEW Iran Snap Analysis: The Meaning of Today’s Khamenei-Ahmadinejad Show
Iran Document: Majid Tavakoli “The Will of My Nation Led to Victory”
The Latest from Iran (3 June): Karroubi Video Message

2000 GMT: Interrogation Watch. The Committee of Human Rights Reporters reports that security forces went to the home of human rights activist Saba Vasefi to arrest her, but she was not away. There is no information on her current situation and whereabouts.


Vasefi, a university instructor, researcher, human rights activist, and women’s rights activist, reportedly was looking into the case of a person sentenced to death but has not returned.

1704 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi's latest statement continues to resonate, with his declaration that "they have ruined the republic side of the regime in the name of Islam".

Karroubi's website Saham News also clarifies the story, spread by Fars News, that the cleric was assaulted on Thursday. An incident did occur at Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery The website adds that Karroubi was able to reach the Haram where --- significantly in light of today's events --- he was received by Hassan Khomeini.

1700 GMT: Absentees. No reformists, including Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami --- attended the ceremony today.

1645 GMT: The Big Story from Today --- Hassan Khomeini. It looks like the speech of President Ahmadinejad, and even that of the Supreme Leader, have been overshadowed by the sabotaging of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson.

The story is all over the Iranian web. The pro-regime Raja News is spreading the slogan, "Imam Khomeini's real nephew is Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah [the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon]". The story is now spreading that Raja disseminated this before the ceremony today and encouraged the heckling of Hassan Khomeini.

It is also significant that Hassan Khomeini halted his speech after the chants of "Death to Mousavi" started, stating, "Please refrain from expressing such sentiments until the Leader takes the podium." During the Supreme Leader's speech, both he and Hashemi Rafsanjani kept their heads buried deep in their chests.

1520 GMT: Clerical Support. Ayatollah Dastgheib has written to Mir Hossein Mousavi, expressing his support for Mousavi's "sincerity and his avoidance of betrayal, lies, and hypocrisy".

1455 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Shabnam Madadzadeh, vice president of the student organisation Daftar Tahkim Vahdat, and her brother Farzad have both been sentenced to five years in prison.

1450 GMT: Relaxing the Oil Squeeze? International Oil Daily claims that Royal Dutch Shell has resumed shipments to Iran, with three 30,000-ton deliveries of gasoline/petrol last month at the port of Bandar Abbas.

1445 GMT: Parliament v. President. Peyke Iran claims that Parliament's Article 90 Commission has said that it is not convinced of Ahmadinejad's defence of his Government's implementation of policies.

1440 GMT: Reading Larijani. And what of this what you will from Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, explaining at a memorial service, "Today we see a backwardness which has nothing to do with the ideas of the Imam [Khomeini]."

1425 GMT: Reading Today. We've posted a snap analysis of the significance of today's speeches.

Khabar Online posts an article on the sabotage of Hassan Khomeini's speech. The website also claims that the Supreme Leader consoled Khomeini by kissing him on the forehead.

The reformist Green Voice of Freedom also covers the incident, emphasising Khomeini's declaration that those shouting down his words were "a minority".

0935 GMT: The Bad West. Khamenei is still criticising the West and Israel, claiming that the US and others try to restrict Iran's access to nuclear energy (but saying little more), as the crowds chants Death to the US and Death to Israel.

And that's about it as the Supreme Leader moves to a closing prayer and Press TV cuts its coverage.

0925 GMT: The Israel Rap. After leading the audience in prayer, the Supreme Leader uses the attack on the Freedom Flotilla as proof of Israel "murdering innocents" as Western "hypocrites and liars" observe and keep silent over the "barbaric and savage" Zionists.

0920 GMT: Back to the Challenge. "They started this chaos. They tried their efforts. They supported those rioters. The UK also supported them, Western powers [supported them]. MKO ["terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq] and all the opponents supported them. What was the result?....Our great people last year showed such a great power that dazzled the whole world."

0916 GMT: Audience Watch. They may be rivals for power, but Ahmadinejad is sitting next to Sadegh and Ali Larijani. Ahmadinejad ally Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi is three seats from Hashemi Rafsanjani.

0912 GMT: Now I Will Shake My Fist. The Supreme Leader starts his attack on opposition figures by saying that individuals should not be judged on their past offices but on their present positions, adding that the first Imam, Imam Ali, fought former allies when they strayed.

How serious could this get? Khamenei notes that some people who accompanied Ayatollah Khomeini on his return to Iran in 1979 were later executed because they left the proper path. His message to opponents: "the yardstick for passing judgement is your present situation if, God forbid, Satan pushes [you] the wrong way".

0910 GMT: Still going on about Israel and Palestine, with an Iranian position "based on logic and not sloganeering".

0905 GMT: The Global Dimension. Instead of returning to the internal battle, the Supreme Leader uses his invocation of Khomeini and democracy to claim that Iran --- without interfering in the affairs of other countries --- is setting a "glorious example" to the rest of the world.

He quickly moves, however, from glory to darker language, setting up his anti-Israel section by invoking Ayatollah Khomeini's description of Israel as a "cancerous tumour".

0900 GMT: Legitimacy. Khamenei points to elections in the early days of the Islamic Republic: "In no other revolution do you see a referendum less than two months after victory." And, in the toughest times during the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988, the elections were never postponed.

0850 GMT: Attack Resumed. Another not-so-veiled reference by Khamenei to political opponents as "mercenaries" of foreign, hostile powers. He speaks of their stances on Qods Day (September) and Ashura (27 December) --- both occasions of large opposition demonstrations --- and says that "we cannot remain silent" and "call ourselves followers of the Imam".

0830 GMT: The First Swipe. Khameini makes his first analogy with the contemporary situation, criticising those who were followers of Ayatollah Khomeini but "went their own way" and "lost their goals....After years, they stand against those ideals."

Mir Hossein Mousavi just happened to be Prime Minister during the last years of Ayatollah Khomeini's life.

(Interesting side note: the Supreme Leader reads and interprets sections of Khomeini's will but never notes his injunction against the involvement of the military in politics.)

0825 GMT: Disrespecting Khomeini. A quick flashback to the episode between the Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader speeches: the section of the crowd who sabotaged the speech of the Imam's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, were reportedly chanting, "Death to Mousavi". We've posted the video.

0820 GMT: Audience Check. In contrast to the lack of VIPs who showed up for President Ahmadinejad, everyone who is anyone is here for Khamenei. The three Larijani brothers have now appeared, as has former President Rafsanjani.

0815 GMT: The Supreme Leader begins with a lengthy section lauding the steadfastness and piety of Ayatollah Khomeini.

0800 GMT: Ayatollah Khamenei has just arrived on the stage. We have an urgent commitment this morning so we will be blogging the Supreme Leader's address "as live" in about three hours.

0800 GMT: Extraordinary development --- a section of the crowd is yelling to prevent Hassan Khomeini from speaking. He is now referring to this openly, asking "forgiveness for all of us". (Press TV makes no reference to the disruption.)

0752 GMT: A Surprise Appearance. The grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, is now speaking. That's a bit unexpected: Hassan Khomeini has been critical of the Ahmadinejad Government and has been under sustained pressure to curb his activities.

He is greeted enthusiastically --- more enthusiastically than Ahmadinejad --- and has to pause repeatedly for the crowd to quiet before he can speak.

(Or, alternatively, is the loud noise meant to block Hassan Khomeini's speech?)

0750 GMT: Press TV does not even wait for the end of Ahmadinejad's speech before cutting away.

0745 GMT: Is It Empty Behind Ahmadinejad's Back?

All in all, a pretty uneventful speech. There was the standard Ahmadinejad rhetoric denouncing "the West" and Israel (although no direct reference to Iran's nuclear programme), and one passage went after his opponents, promising that the Iranian nation --- which backed him in the 2009 election --- would "annihilate" them.

But it was pretty tame compared to what we anticipated. An EA correspondent goes farther, "Ahmadinejad has definitely run out of ideas. His speech is repetitive and contains frankly nothing worth mentioning."

Indeed, the takeaway point so far this morning is not Ahmadinejad's speech but those who were not there: apart from Revolutionary Guard commander Mohammad Ali Jafari, everyone must have been stuck in traffic. No Larijani brothers, no Rafsanjani, and no prominent "conservative" politicians.

0740 GMT: Ahmadinejad concludes by invoking Khomeini: "The Iranian nation will follow down the Imam's path." And he has a final swipe at "arrogant powers", saying, "We are not afraid of their fabricated power."

0730 GMT: The President is now using the Freedom Flotilla incident to invoke "weak" and "crazy" Israel and the US "under the influence of the criminal Zionists".

Ahmadinejad warns that, if Washington does not stop its support of Israel, it will be "the end of President Obama" and "the end of the US". Any "new aggressive move" will mean the "death of the Zionist regime".

0727 GMT: Ahmadinejad is now back to the narrative of Ayatollah Khomeini's triumph over the "arrogant powers", culminating in Iran's "final victory". Those who opposed Iran can now only "surrender to the righteous".

Highest-ranking VIP seen so far? Atomic energy chief Ali Akhbar Salehi.

An EA correspondent notes, "As a Persian saying would put it, 'It's empty behind his back.'"

0717 GMT: Now Ahmadinejad is going big-time against the "hypocrites" of the "Western powers" who challenged Ayatollah Khomeini.

And now he's moving to the "individuals" standing with those powers: "Those who are in league with enemeis cannot claim to follow Imam" --- "If they go awry...they will be removed from the scene by the people....Anyone who stands against this Revolution will be annihilated."

0715 GMT: Now Ahmadinejad goes after the opposition, those "selfish people" who tried to deny him the legitimacy of the election. He invokes Khomeini as referring to the "will of the people" and standing up to "arrogant powers".

0710 GMT: After several uneventful minutes, the President finally makes his play for legitimacy. He proclaims that the election witnessed 40 million Iranians --- 85% of eligible voters --- turning out in a "100% free election" to "set the record of democracy in the whole world".

And almost "25 million" voted for "their servant --- me".

0705 GMT: Nothing special so far in the Ahmadinejad speech. And no sign of major presences in the crowd --- which is muted so far --- although we did spot Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi in the VIP section.

0653 GMT: President Ahmadinejad is now addressing the crowd with greetings in Arabic. Press TV has started live coverage.

A large banner under the podium has a quote from Khomeini, always present on this occasion: "America Cannot Do a Damn Thing".

We're watching the crowd to see which VIPs are present.

0650 GMT: Some live shots now from IRINN of the crowd at Ayatollah Khomeini's shrine. An EA correspondent estimates "tens of thousands". possibly 100,000, but only the inner courtyard is shown.

0640 GMT: Economy Watch. According to Donya-e Eqtesad, Ahmadinejad advisor Saeed Mortazavi is fretting over the amount of contraband in the Iranian system: "Some 16 billion dollars worth of goods have been smuggled into Iran, while three billion dollars worth have been exported illegally during the last Iranian year."

0630 GMT: Karroubi Strikes. Mehdi Karroubi, who put out a lengthy video message yesterday, has also posted a forthright statement on Saham News:

[The regime officials] speak in a way as if Imam [Khomeini] belongs to them only and others have broken path with the Imam. Whoever objects to fraud in election is accused of being a Mossad or CIA agent. The fate of election is in the hands of Basijis and Sepah [Revolutionary Guards].

I am worried about the Islamic aspect of the regime. They have ruined the republic side of the regime in the name of Islam.

0600 GMT: Getting Priorities Right. Press TV have now elevated the remembrance of Ayatollah Khomeini by Iranians "in their millions" to its top story.

Still only a token reference to the Supreme Leader's speech as Press TV jumps to a statement by Hezbollah's Sheikh Nasrallah linking the Khomeini legacy to the "heroes of the Gaza aid flotilla".

0515 GMT: Trumped by the Flotilla? After all our morning analysis on the possible significance of today's Ahmadinejad/Khamenei speeches, a curious signal from Press TV.

The first 10 minutes of its morning news round-up is devoted not to Tehran Friday Prayers but to the aftermath of the Israeli raid on the Freedom Flotilla.

Only after the steady stream of Iranian and international condemnation of the attack does Press TV turn to the commemoration of the passing of Ayatollah Khomeini. There is the high-profile, and possibly risky, headline of Tehran police's prediction of more than two million at the shrine and on the streets, coming in "50,000 buses", but only a passing reference to the Supreme Leader's speech and none to Ahmadinejad's.

0500 GMT: Here We Go. Maybe.



This morning both President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader will use the 21st anniversary of the death of Ayatollah Khomeini to deliver speeches on the political situation. Speaking from Khomeini's shrine, Ayatollah Khamenei will lead Tehran's Friday Prayers, with Ahmadinejad offering an introduction.

As this is effectively the first regime rally since 22 Bahman (11 February), one public signal will be the size of the crowd for the occasion. There should be no problem filling the shrine --- an EA correspondent writes that it holds about 50,000 to 60,000 people --- but will there be a mass showing on the streets beyond?



That, however, may be the peripheral matter for propaganda; any debate over numbers tends to overlook the little fact that there is no big show of support for the regime between these high-profile occasions set a few months apart.

Instead, the immediate challenge will come in the content of the two speeches. Ahmadinejad showing up as the warm-up act is an important clue: an EA correspondent says an "introduction" of the Supreme Leader on this occasion is unusual. So the President's appearance, given his rhetoric and his need to establish his authority, points to a tough line on the opposition (and, possibly between the lines, to Ahmadinejad's opponents within the Iranian establishment).

But what about the Supreme Leader? EA staff note that he has two "hot" issues to handle: 1) the application for a march on 12 June, the anniversary of the 2009 election, by Mir Hossein Mousasvi and Mehdi Karroubi and 2) the maneouvres over the Tehran declaration on uranium enrichment by Iran, Brazil, and Turkey.

On the nuclear issue, the Supreme Leader has to decide between whether to hold out the prospect of continuing discussion with the "West" over a possible deal or, given the prospect of tougher sanctions, whether to tell Brazil and Turkey that there is no point in negotiating. The latter course of action would be a setback for Ahmadinejad, who still needs the prospect of a bargain on uranium for his political legitimacy, and a victory for the President's rival, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani.

That's important politics to handle, but still the primary issue for Khamenei is whether he offers any road back for the opposition, say, the line "repent and we will take you back", or whether he draws the line and says, "That's it. We're taking you down."

Does the Supreme Leader, for example, make an open declaration that the Green Movement and other "enemies" will not be allowed to gather on 12 June or does he avoid comment, letting Iran's bureaucracy turn down the Mousavi-Karroubi request?

And --- given the prospect that the opposition will still try to demonstrate --- does Khamenei, more than 11 months after his last Friday Prayer which said there would be no defiance of the election result, warn that this demonstration and its leaders will be crushed?