Iran: The Ahmadinejad Speech in Tabriz (19 November)

Iran: Green Message to Obama “Back Us Instead of Dealing With Ahmadinejad”
The Latest from Iran (20 November): Manoeuvres in Washington

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From the US Government Open Source Center (and thanks to an EA reader). The full text supposes our reading, put out in updates yesterday and today, that Ahmadinejad is pursuing "engagement" with other countries, especially the US, to bolster his legitimacy while holding up the image that it is Iran which has the superior position in the talks:

In the name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate (introductory prayers in Arabic). I thank God Almighty, and I am sincerely happy to be visiting Iran's best people in Tabriz and Azarbayjan on a great day. The day when two great human beings, the Lord of the Believers, Ali, peace be upon him, and Her Holiness Zahra, peace be upon her, began their auspicious married lives together, and at a time when rain, the blessing of God, is coming down fast. (People cheer)

Azarbayjan is the land of epic, belief and kindness. Azarbayjan is the land of art, moral values and struggle. (People cheer)
Azarbayjan is the land of devotion, passion and love for the country.

In the last few decades, the people of Tabriz and Azarbayjan have always played a unique, unrivalled, and distinctive role in developing Iran's culture, developing poetry, moral values of this land, art, progress, economy, defending the homeland, fighting tyrants, bullies, and oppressors. (People cheer)

The people of this land are pioneers of the pro-constitution movement, repelling the aggressors and acts of mischief and defending the supreme ideals of the Islamic Revolution. (People cheer)

The world must know that today, independence, territorial integrity, and unparalleled dignity of the people of Iran are mostly indebted to the self-sacrifice, vigilance and passion of the people of Tabriz and Azarbayjan. (People cheer and poetry is recited in praise of Tabriz and Azarbayjan; and how the land smells of flowers).

Blessing of God upon you dear people of this province, people of Tabriz and other towns in East Azarbayjan. Blessing of God upon the valiant, noble, revolutionary, and art-loving people of this province.

My dear ones, I wanted to discuss important issues with you today; issues about the present conditions of Iran, of the region, of the world and things that we must do to construct Iran and (to safeguard) its dignity. However, you have been standing in the rain for hours. It is fall and I am worried (about your health); although, historical experience has shown that the people of Azarbayjan and people of Tabriz will stand by the Islamic revolution even if it rains stones. (People chant slogans)

Let me say a few short sentences and then I will express my thanks to you. God willing, tonight at TV program...(he does not finish his sentence) (preceding words in Turkish) Azarbayjan is awakened and is a base for supporting the revolution. (People chant the same slogan) Well done; let me say just a few sentences.

First, I address foreign powers: open your eyes; this is Tabriz. This is Azarbayjan. In the cold autumnal weather, people have been standing in the rain and the streets are full; the stadium is full. They (people of Tabriz) have come to give you two messages: Their first message is to invite you to follow the path of God, the path of humanity and purity. They want to say enough is enough. You should put an end to committing crimes, to occupations, invasions, and homicide. Follow the path of humanity; the path nations and prophets have followed. Be aware that if you (take note of) the message of the people of Tabriz, which is a message of faith and of divinity and if you (neglect) the invitation of the people of Tabriz and of Iranians, then the powerful hand of nations will throw you out of your glass palaces. (People chant slogans).

The second message is this: The people of Iran are liberal-minded. They are pure and they support peace and friendship. They support constructive international cooperation. They are ready to reform the conditions of the world, to resolve the dilemmas of the human community; they are ready to have constructive cooperation in reforming the economy, culture and politics and in establishing lasting security in the world.

The Iranian nation is a dignified, brave, aspiring and pious nation. This nation is not pursuing aggression, does not have ill intentions, it only wants to obtain its right, its bright future and its legal right. Those (presumably US President Obama) who claim that they want to have constructive interaction must know that if a clear, fundamental and correct change is observed and the Iranian nation sees that they have truly changed their attitude, have given up their aggressive and arrogant behavior, are respecting the right and dignity of the Iranian nation, and by returning the right and wealth of the nation they have honestly stretched a hand of friendship toward Iran, it will accept it. However they should know that if they are pursuing deception and mischief in our region again, the response of our nation will be the same definite response which they gave to the predecessors of these gentlemen.

This was for them, and now something for domestic audiences. My cherished ones, with divine providence, today there are great unprecedented historical opportunities before us the nation of Iran.

We have to make our country reach an optimal point; a point which our nation deserves. All conditions for making a progressive Iran, an affluent Iran, a free Iran and a mighty and influential Iran are ripe. Today, we have to, hand in hand, through solidarity, through unity, through effort and endeavor build Iran.

We have to make Iran reach a supreme position in the fields of science, culture, economy and development. Today, we are in need of solidarity. We are in need of effort and constant unremitting and indefatigable endeavor.

Dear Azarbayjan has always been at the forefront of all fields of endeavor; it has been in a vanguard position for the Iranian nation.

The ill-intentioned and the enemies do not want the tranquillity of our nation, its progress and its dignity.

Today, hand in hand and despite the wishes of the ill-intentioned and the narrow-minded selfish ones, we have to build Iran.
Haji (Mohammad Mojtahed) Shabestari (Friday prayer leader of the province) the honorable representative of the Supreme Leader (Ali Khamene'i) said something, which is quite right. I want to add something to that myself: he submitted that in the great elections that were held in Iran and astonished the world and enhanced Iran's global standing and showed the might of the Iranian nation; here and there, certain people were after undermining this greatness and victory of the nation. His eminence submitted that in Azarbayjan tranquillity, greatness and security and fraternity was in force (during that period).

This is quite right, well done to you. I want to add a phrase to this; the expectation of the nation of Iran for Azarbayjan is yet higher than that. History has shown that if a malevolent person, an adversary, or an aggressor was creating subversion here and there or disrupting Iran's security and undermining its honor; the nation expected the valiant men and women of Azarbayjan to rise and break their bones (Crowds chant approval and hail the president).

At least in the last 400 years, every time and in any corner of the cherished fatherland, a seditious, conspiring, hostile or aggressive person has existed. He has wanted to undermine the prestige, standing and integrity of the Iranian nation - history bears witness that - the children of Azarbayjan have risen up vigilantly and powerfully. They have defeated the enemy in this way.

It is for this reason that the nation of Iran cries out from the bottom of its heart: Yashasun Azarbayjan (Turkish: Long live Azarbayjan).

OK! I do not want to keep you for long. I have to say two or three sentences of gratitude. God-willing, I will say more on TV and it will reach you (I am sure).

My first gratitude is to be extended to (long silence while he speaks to an unidentified person and laughs; then he says: Azari Turkish OK, may be at the end) my first thank you is for all your goodness and graciousness. Today, our Revolution owes a lot to the sacrifices of the people of Azarbayjan and Tabriz.

No one will forget 29 Bahman (18 February 1978, day of uprising in Tabriz against the rule of the former shah); 29 Bhaman 1356 broke the back of arrogance. Also (we won't forget) the Martyrs of the Altar (Reference to a number of clerics who were assassinated while praying), the Great Martyrs (presumably Iranian forces killed in Iran-Iraq war in 1980s) and the martyrs of Ashura Division (another group of war victims). The fighters of this land have always been at the front line of the Iranian nation and with the grace of God, they will remain there.

As a servant of yours, I will sincerely thank you. I also thank you for your heroic participation in the (presidential) elections. The presence of the people of Azarbayjan and their votes in the political atmosphere of the country, in the international arena and in the history of our country has a special significance; it signifies resistance, dignity, honesty and passion. That is why the whole Iranian nation believes this beautiful slogan of you, which comes from the bottom of your hearts: (Preceding words in Turkish) Azarbayjan is awakened and is a base for supporting the revolution. (People repeat the slogan)

I thank you for your generosity and the kindness you bestow upon your servant. I have said it before and I say it again: the greatest honor in my life is that for eight years I have been serving the people of Azarbayjan. And today, I am proud that many Iranians consider me the son of Azarbayjan.

Let me also offer my gratitude for your heroic presence. Let the world see: these are the people of Azarbayjan and Tabriz. Your presence inspires all other nations. It makes Iranian people and all other nations proud. I sincerely and humbly thank all of you. May God enhance your dignity. God willing, in the meetings of the working groups and the meeting of the cabinet members, suitable decisions will be made (he pauses while people chant slogans in his support) (Preceding words in Turkish) I am your servant.

I hope that tomorrow night, I will tell you about our decisions as well as certain points which should be said on TV and now I will say a few prayers. It is time for noon prayers. I hope that the Almighty God who has bestowed us with a rain of his blessings will answer your prayers. Oh dear God, O kind God, add to the dignity of these people day by day. Oh almighty, unique God, place the Iranian nation in the highest, dignified point in the world. Oh God, place our dear youths, students, employees, workers, farmers, academics, and all ranks of society on the summits of international respect. Safeguard our faithful youth; make all the good wishes of our youth come true. O Almighty God, make our great nation reach the summits of progress and development. Remove the obstacles in the way of the progress of our nation. Save the oppressed nation.

Oh benevolent, almighty, and all-knowing God, put an end to the life of usurpers and tyrants. Oh benevolent God, the Iranian nation and world all nations and especially the people of Azarbayjan are awaiting the bright era of the rule of your representative (Reference to the 12th Shiite Imam). Oh almighty God, expedite the reappearance of our Lord of the Age (Reference to the 12th Shiite Imam).

Long live Azarbayjan. I wish you success.

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The Latest from Iran (20 November): Manoeuvres in Washington

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UPDATED 1335 GMT: The Washington Times also has a report on the speech. The headline points are the same as those in the Wall Street Journal as is the description of Makhmalbaf, who "has become a spokesman outside Iran for the so-called Green Movement since the country's disputed June 12 presidential
election".

UPDATED 1045 GMT: EA's Mr Smith has done some checking on the important question, raised by our readers, "To what extent does Makhmalbaf represent the Green Movement and Mir Hossein Mousavi?" The response, from those well-connected and well-versed in Iranian politics, is that "Makhmalbaf is not really connected with Mousavi. Nevertheless, Makhmalbaf acts at the least as a roving public ambassador for him."

Earlier this month, we learned of attempts from inside and outside the Green movement to persuade the Obama Administration to back away from an agreement with Tehran on uranium enrichment and the nuclear programme. That effort is in the open this morning.

The Wall Street Journal reveals the Washington mission by Mohsen Makhmalbaf, the filmmaker, "Presidential campaign spokesman for Mir Hossein Mousavi", and "international spokesman for Iran's main opposition movement". Speaking at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, he called for "President Barack Obama to increase his public support for Iranian democrats and significantly intensify financial pressure on Tehran's elite military unit, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps".

As for the nuclear discussions, Makhmalbaf said "that Iranian opposition leaders supported U.S. efforts to use diplomacy to contain the nuclear ambitions of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's government". He warned, however, that the current talks would not produce an agreement and should be suspended:

If they agree not to pursue a nuclear bomb and start negotiations, they will lose their supporters. Definitely dialogue is better than war. ... But can you continue your dialogue without any results?

Makhmalbaf suggested an agenda beyond the talks, with the targeted economic measures against the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps: "We need certain sanctions that put pressure on the government but not the people. But they must be done quickly, or they won't have an impact."

Most importantly, Makhmalbaf tried to replace the current nuclear-first priority of the Obama Administration with a democracy-first approach:

We definitely want Obama to say he supports democracy...If he doesn't say that, he will lose his support in Iran.

Don't only focus on the nuclear issue and allow the Iranian government to crack down on the people. You need to focus on human rights.

And, although it is not noted by the Journal, I suspect Makhmalbaf's visit had another essential aim. With the speech at the high-profile Carnegie Endowment, he is trying to repair the damage caused by last month's talk by Ataollah Mohajerani, a former Khatami Government minister and associate of Mehdi Karroubi, at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Mohajerani's speech, interpreted (wrongly, we think) by some Washington insiders as a Green manifesto, alienated US support because of its "hard-line" statements on nuclear weapons and Iran's position on Israel.

Makhmalbaf avoided those potential pitfalls on Thursday. Doing so, he is reaching out to officials in the State Department, the National Security Council, and Obama's White House (even if the CIA remains hostile to a Green ascendancy). We are not dead. You can work with us.

And now the follow-up: will he get a response?

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2055 GMT: Keeping the Students Down. The Government effort to contain student protest continues. Iran's national student organisation Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat reports that its political director, Abbas Hakimzadeh, has been arrested.

Kohzad Esmaili, head of the Gilan branch of the alumni organisation Advar-Tahkim-Vahdat (Office of Strengthening Unity), has been re-arrested after being freed on $20,000 bail.

2045 GMT: A Non-Crowd Story? While those pre-occupied with the nuclear issue try to read Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Tabriz speech for signals (see 1425 GMT), the Green movement has other concerns, namely those who did or did not turn out:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad received a very cold welcome from the citizens. Yoldash, the Green news organisation in Tabriz, reported that, despite the fact that the chief of "popular welcoming staff" of Ahmadinejad assured 100,000 people would be present at his speech today, only about 10-15,000 people participated in this event which can be easily recognized in the pictures taken by pro-coup Mehr news agency.

An EA source says that the Government tried to ensure a large turnout by giving university students, school children, and workers time off and transport to the rally. However, possibly because of the rain, possibly for other reasons, seats remained empty.

1805 GMT: Is Rafsanjani Lining Up with the Government's Nuclear Proposal? Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has told the Swedish Ambassador to Iran that the International Atomic Energy Agency is legally obliged to provide 20 percent nuclear fuel to Tehran.

Sweden currently holds the European Union's rotating presidency.

1800 GMT: Clinton Speaks Out? Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared to journalists in Kabul:

It is a very unfortunate, distressing development to see these sentences handed down in Iran, imposing the death penalty on people who participated in expressing their opposition to the government in demonstrating in the streets.It underscores the approach that the government in Iran takes for their own people.

We will continue to stand up for the rights of the people of Iran to speak for themselves, to have their votes counted, to be given an opportunity to have the measure of freedom and rights that any person deserves to have

1755 GMT: What Happened on Election Night? We've posted the account of Abolfazl Fateh, the editor of Ghalam News, a paper close to Mir Hossein Mousavi.

1550 GMT: Football Politics. In its latest friendly match, Iran's national football team drew 1-1 with Macedonia. The Tehran Times says 1000 people attended; an EA source says the number was closer to 500.

Still, that's better than the 100 who turned up at the match earlier this month with Iceland.

1455 GMT: The Clerics Plot. An EA source brings intriguing information from Qom. On Wednesday, Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi and Ayatollah Nouri-Hamedani, whom Karroubi wrote last week, discussed next moves in the post-election crisis. Nouri-Hamedani reportedly said,  "I am ready to go to Tehran and talk to both sides" about a plan for national unity, and the two clerics (possibly joined by others) decided to seek a meeting with the Supreme Leader.

1440 GMT: And What is "The West" Doing? "Six world powers will meet in Brussels to discuss what measures could be applied against Tehran for its refusal to halt its nuclear enrichment program, an EU official said Thursday. Friday's meeting will include the U.N. Security Council's permanent members — Britain, China, France, Russia and the U.S. — plus Germany, the official said on condition of anonymity because she was not authorized to disclose details of the gathering."

1435 GMT: Negotiating from Strength, I Tell You. And hundreds of miles away in The Philippines, Foreign Minister Mottaki --- having put the Iranian counter-offer on uranium enrichment --- is serving as Ahmadinejad's wingman, warning against further sanctions on Iran: "“I think they [the world powers] are wise enough not to repeat failed experiences. Of course it's totally up to them."

1425 GMT: Mahmoud's Negotiating from Strength. Back from an academic break to read about President Ahmadinejad's speech in Tabriz today. His twin-track rhetoric is now established: the door is open to agreement with "the West", but Iran is holding that door open out of its principled leadership in the world, not out of weakness:

Iran is a nation supportive of peace and friendship and backs constructive cooperation on the international arena. Tehran is therefore ready to cooperate with the international community in different arenas including the revival of economy and the establishment of stable security across the globe....

....Iran is not after aggression. It only seeks its legal rights ... Those who say they want constructive interaction should know that...if the Iranian nation witnesses a genuine transparent change of their policy…if they respect the rights of the Iranian nation…if they honestly extend their hand of friendship then the people of Iran will accept [such overture]....

But the President added, "They should also know that if they are after deception and corruption in our region,” the Iranian nation would be the same “decisive” answer that it has already given to arrogant powers.

1140 GMT: Worst Media "Analysis" of the Day. In The Wall Street Journal, Mark "Black Hawk Down" Bowden explains, "How Iran's [1979] Revolution Was Hijacked". The historical part of the article is OK, with Bowden --- who has written a book on the US Embassy crisis -- claiming, "Nine months after Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi fled it was still unclear what kind of government Iran was going to have....[Ayatollah Khomeini] was ambivalent about the idea of clerical rule."

It's Bowden's jump to 2009 that turns reflection into farce: "So 30 years after seizing power, the mullahs of Qom find themselves in a difficult spot. To turn back the domestic tide of reform they must employ the very tools employed by the despised shah—mass arrests and trials, torture, execution and censorship."

Which "mullahs of Qom" would these be? Montazeri? Sane'i? Bayat-Zanjani? Dastgheib? Safi Golpaygani? Makarem Shirazi?

1050 GMT: The Preview of the Deal? Press TV, quoting from the Islamic Republic News Agency, has just posted a significant statement from Iran's envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, who says that UN inspectors will visit the second uranium enrichment facility at Fordoo today.

Here is the key line, however, from Soltanieh: "This site will from now on be under the IAEA supervision." That may be an unsubtle olive branch to the international community for the bigger deal: you can oversee our facilities inside Iran, so you can trust that we'll let you oversee uranium stocks as well.

1000 GMT: So What About Those Sanctions? President Obama may be issuing the warning that he's opening up a can of economic pain if Iran does not accept a nuclear deal, but the signals --- which we've noted for weeks --- are that the US is limited in what it can do:

Western powers are gearing up for talks on a fourth round of U.N. sanctions against Tehran over its nuclear program but will not target Iran's energy sector to ensure Russia's and China's support....The scaling back of the West's expectations for new U.N. steps against Iran for defying Security Council demands to stop enriching uranium shows that the Europeans and Americans have accepted that Moscow and Beijing, with their close trade ties to Tehran, will not let Iran's economy be crippled.

Diplomats said the Western powers are eager to ratchet up the pressure on the Islamic Republic. But they also need to keep Moscow and Beijing on board to send a clear signal to Tehran that the world's big powers are united against it.

If there is a move for UN sanctions, they will target "at least another bank, more individuals, more companies -- possibly a shipping company -- a tighter ban on arms, possibly political measures". Meanwhile, Washington will fall back on the notion that it can organise multilateral restrictions outside the United Nations. Steps could include a ban on Euro transactions for Iranian and withholding technology to produce liquefied natural gas.

0855 GMT: Extending our initial update (0650 GMT), Mr Smith brings us the Analysis of the Day, considering the latest Iranian offer in the nuclear talks and advising the "West" how to respond to it.

0815 GMT: Anticipating the protests of 16 Azar (7 December), we have posted a video "advertisement" for the demonstrations which is a pretty good parody: Welcome to "The Pirates of the Persian Gulf".

0800 GMT: Away from the nuclear issue, Michael Slackman of The New York Times has picked up on the case of Ramin Pourandarjan, the 26-year-0ld physician at Kahrizak Prison who died in mysterious circumstances (see our updates throughout this week).

0650 GMT: International media is likely to be dominated this morning by stories on the nuclear negotiations. Most outlets have noted Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's counter-proposal, replacing the delivery of 50-80% of Iran's uranium stock to Russia with a "swap" inside Iran of 20% enriched uranium for Tehran's 3.5% supply. And almost all are jumping on the soundbite reactions, from French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner to President Obama.

Obama warned again that time was short for a deal and "consequences" would follow if Iran did not accept an agreement. He did the same on Sunday but, on this occasion, he added a tough if vague post-script: "Our expectations are that over the next several weeks we will be developing a package of potential steps that we could take that will indicate our seriousness to Iran." (It's notable that not only international media like Al Jazeera but also Iran's state broadcaster Press TV are carrying the story.)

But do the news agencies really have a handle on what is going on? CNN, for example, headlines, "Iran rejects key part of nuclear deal" and drops in, as one line in a 26-paragraph story, "Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Iran might allow its nuclear material to be reprocessed inside Iran."

In contrast, the Los Angeles Times devotes almost all of its article to Mottaki's statement. Its headline and opening sentence, however, are just as negative: "Iran's foreign minister vowed Wednesday that his nation wouldn't allow any of its enriched uranium supply out of the country." This is "either a dismissal of a U.S.- and United Nations-backed proposal to ease international tensions over Iran's nuclear program by lowering Tehran's supply below the threshold required to make a bomb, or an attempt by Iran to haggle over the deal".

None of the coverage considers that, from the perspective of the Ahmadinejad Government (and possibly others), Mottaki's response is far from a rejection or a dismissal. Instead, it is a counter-offer which keeps the discussions alive --- indeed, I suspect it may have come out of talks with International Atomic Energy head Mohammad El Baradei. It puts the question to the US and its partners: will they accept a bargain in which Iran's uranium supply is swapped for 20% fuel which is for civilian rather than military purposes? Or is the initial export and warehousing of the majority of Tehran's low-enriched supply an unconditional requirement?

Beyond the negotiating table, Mottaki's statement is a pointer to another story, one which I suspect will go unnoticed today. In the context of the Iranian establishment, this is an attempt to bring peace between battling factions. President Ahmadinejad wants an agreement --- not perpetual "haggling" but an agreement --- and Mottaki's suggestion keeps open that prospect. Others (the Larijanis? the Supreme Leader?) have consented to or been forced to accept the opening.

If the Washington-led "5+1" powers reject that proposal, however, what next? What next not only for the nuclear discussions but also for the interna contests in Iran?

The Iran Cul-de-Sac: 4 Points on Obama's Embrace of Ahmadinejad (and Rejection of the Green Movement)

The Bomb, The Bomb: Distorting the Latest Report on Iran’s Nuclear Programme
Iran Document: The International Atomic Energy Agency Report on Nuclear Facilities
The Latest from Iran (16 November): Catching Up

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1. IT'S THE NUKES, STUPID

If anyone in the Iranian Government still believes in the
Washington-directed "velvet revolution", rather than using it as a stick to beat the opposition, he/she can breathe easy. The driving force for the Obama Administration's approach to Iran is the quest for an agreement on uranium enrichment.

That ambition is led by the President, and his determination has brought general consensus in an Administration that was arguing over the value of talks earlier in 2009. Broadly speaking, the White House, the National Security Council, and the State Department are all on the same page now.

Any reference to the internal situation in Iran, as in the Obama recent statement calling for recognition of the rights of protesters, is a gloss. The President and his advisors may have a legal and humanitarian interest in what happens to demonstrators, as well to US citizens detained and sentenced to years in prison in Iran, but it is not their top policy priority.

Indeed, Washington's position is now fixed firmly enough to withstand not only the demands of reformists but figures like Hashemi Rafsanjani to go slow on deal with President Ahmadinejad. I suspect we will find that Obama has personally gone farther --- much farther --- than any President since 1979 to get an accommodation with Tehran.

2. GETTING THE GREEN MOVEMENT WRONG

The quest for a nuclear deal has been accompanied by a disturbing if tangential story of how "intelligence" and "analysis" has undermined the Iranian opposition.

Ever since the June election, some US officials, primarily in the intelligence community, have been putting out the line that the Green Movement is insignificant and/or not to be trusted on issues such as nuclear weapons, Israel, and
"anti-Americanism". (The public face of this line is the commentaries of Flynt Leverett, formerly of the National Security Council, and Hillary Mann Leverett, formerly of the State Department.)

This assessment was reinforced by the appearance in October of former Khatami Government official and "Karroubi advisor" Ataollah Mojaherani at the conference of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. His strident caution to the audience that a "Green Government" was unlikely to give ground on Iran's nuclear programme or on the position towards Israel apparently sent shock waves through the audience, angering other reformists present in the audience who feared Mohajerani had just damaged their cause.

They were right. It is the Mojaherani incident that is behind the clamour of well-placed Washington columnists like Jackson Diehl and David Ignatius to beware the Greens. More importantly, the speech fuelled the "analysis" within the CIA that the politics of Mousavi-Karroubi-Khatami were not to be trusted, a belief that accompanied (and possibly fed by) sources such as those in Borzou Daragahi's pre-13 Aban article assaulting the Green Movement.

What is intriguing is how a Washington distraction became the foundation for some in the CIA to bury or fear the Greens. It is true that Mohajerani was a prominent member of the Karroubi campaign and wore the badge of a glittering if past political career: youngest deputy of the first post-Revolution Parliament, Vice-President in the Rafsanjani Government, Minister of Culture under Mohammad Khatami.

Still, at the time, we gave almost no space to the Mojaherani speech because it was so disconnected from events and political strategy in Iran. Before and after the Washington episode, I have not seen Mojaherani's name rise up in the movements of the Green Wave. In short, he was one of a number of former officials who have or had connections with a complex network of "reformists".

For many in Washington, however, Mojaherani was thought to be no less than the ambassador for the Green Movement, presenting its manifesto. And when the approach of his speech did not match up to the "revolution" --- in presentation and policy, if not Islamic system --- that they wanted, those officials and commentators reacted like a lover spurned.

(There is a wider point here. The Iranian Government has had success in disrupting communications within Iran
but it is also important that it has limited any dialogue between the reformist opposition and the "outside", in this case the
US Government. With no direct line
established as the Green Movement evolved, American officials have
relied upon a variety of people, usually located outside Iran presenting a wide range of often contradictory advice and speculation rather than solid information.

While the situation may have been inevitable, given the detentions of many reformists and de facto house arrest of leaders like Mir Hossein Mousavi, it strikes me that the Obama Administration has not worked around these restrictions to read the lines --- and between the lines --- of statements not only of Mousavi, Karroubi, and Khatami but of other activists like Alireza Beheshti and senior clerics from and beyond Qom.)

3. THE MYTH OF THE PLAN B: SANCTIONS

As a case study in internal politics,
the beauty of the Obama nuclear-first, engagement-first approach has been how it has brought consensus amongst differing groups within the Administration. If the talks brought nuclear agreement, that would be a significant result for the unclenched fist (the line often attributed to some State Department officials and envoys like Richard Holbrooke). If they were finally collapsed by Iranian stalling and intransigence, the platform for aggressive sanctions would be laid (the line often
attributed to Dennis Ross, now at the National Security Council).

The only problem comes if, having grasped the hand of the Iranian Government in talks, the Obama Administration then has to slap Ahmadinejad's face in the absence of an agreement.

Washington's current calculation, supported by its diplomatic strategy, turns the Russian key. Moscow's envoys are working on the Iranian Government to accept the uranium enrichment plan, while Russian President Dmitri Medvedev issues unsubtle hints that he will not stand back if Tehran balks.

That is not the same as a Russian commitment to sanctions. Let's assume, however, that Moscow accepts a US-led multilateral effort inside or outside the United Nations. And let's assume that President Obama, who no doubt has mentioned this in Beijing this week, gets a Chinese promise to stand aside.

What next? If there is no nuclear agreement, it will quite likely be because the Supreme Leader has objected, despite Obama's sustained direct efforts. So how does a stricter round of sanctions change Ayatollah Khamenei's position?

It doesn't. So the Obama Administration is presumably counting on a diplomatic and economic containment, indeed isolation, of Iran.

That, however, does nothing to address the issue of President Ahmadinejad, who remains in office. It does nothing to deal with the increasing role of the Revolutionary Guards in matters beyond the nuclear and even military realm. (Indeed, as some analysts have contended, further sanctions may assist the Guard's economic ventures, although this effect may be mitigated if the restrictions can specifically target Guard "investments".)

Sanctions certainly do nothing with respect to the reformists and the Green movement. Even if Washington recants and tries to bring them back into political consideration, it is unclear --- given the perceived snub by Obama's officials in recent weeks --- if the opposition will offer even a cautious welcome.

4. BACK TO THE CUL-DE-SAC

In the Bush years, the cul-de-sac for American policy was the threat that could not be carried out. Whether the vision was a "turn left from Baghdad" intervention, briefly considered in 2003, the military strikes advocated by Vice President Cheney in 2007, or a sledgehammer set of economic sanctions, the Administration could not deliver the blow. The "best" it could manage was the muddled if funded programme of "soft power" in the 2nd term, which was never defined as either a live-and-let-live civic engagement or the cover for "velvet revolution".

The hope of the Obama approach has been to get out of that dead end, opening up space for other initiatives such as Middle Eastern agreements, through engagement. And, considered narrowly in the context of discussions on nuclear programmes and regional politics, that was solid, realist common sense.

But "narrowly" became very narrow after the elections of 12 June. If Obama wanted to dance, he had to dance with an Iranian President who now lacked legitimacy (despite the efforts of engagement advocates like the Leveretts to explain how Ahmadinejad had really won the election and a clear mandate).

That legitimacy, within weeks of the election, was not just a question of a "reformist" challenge. Ahmadinejad has also been in a tenuous position vis-a-vis political rivals like Hashemi Rafsanjani, the conservatives/principlists in the Iranian Parliament, Ayatollahs (and thus bodies such as the Assembly of Experts), and at times the Supreme Leader. That is why the Iranian President, far from breaking off talks to pursue The Bomb, is hugging the nuclear discussions so close --- with no prospect of salvation through an economic miracle, this is his prescription for political longevity.

Now Obama's engagement gamble, re-shaped in this post-June cauldron, may still succeed if the Supreme Leader gives his backing to an agreement on uranium enrichment. (Which is why, just to repeat, this President is going farther than any predecessor in 30 years) A wider US agenda, which may adapt engagement for exchanges on Iran's political and legal issues as well as geopolitical interests, could then be drafted.

But, if the nuclear deal does not go through, Obama and Ahmadinejad now dance in a downward spiral. The Iranian President will struggle to serve out his disputed second term. And the US President will be back in the cul-de-sac: pressed by some advisors and a lot of Congressmen to pursue sanctions which offer no remedy for --- and no exit from --- the political dilemma of his failed engagement.

The Latest from Iran (17 November): An Obama-Ahmadinejad Alliance?

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Protests of Ehsan Fattahian's Execution (16 November)
NEW The Bomb, The Bomb: Distorting the Latest Report on Iran's Nuclear Programme
NEW The Iran Cul-de-Sac: 4 Points on Obama’s Embrace of Ahmadinejad (and Rejection of the Green Movement)
Iran Document: The International Atomic Energy Agency Report on Nuclear Facilities
The Latest from Iran (16 November): Catching Up

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1925 GMT: On a Positive Note (see 1855 GMT). The Public Broadcasting Service documentary, "Death in Tehran", on the shooting of Neda Agha Soltan airs at 8 p.m., Eastern Standard Time in the US (0100 GMT). It has been developed and filmed in conjunction with the good folks at Tehran Bureau.

1915 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami, speaking to Tehran University students, has called for reform of Iran's election laws and condemned violent government policies. He maintained that the “Iranian movement” cannot be suppressed by “fear":

This movement is a deep and widespread movement....The people of Iran want freedom; they want financial, economic, social and political security and because they have suffered through despotism, they want to be masters of their destiny.

1855 GMT: Worst Iran Coverage of the Day. From The New York Times review of a Public Broadcasting Service TV documentary on the death of Neda Agha Soltan:

“A Death in Tehran,” Tuesday’s “Frontline” [documentary] on PBS, is dismaying not just because it deals with a life ended in its prime. It also makes us realize just how quickly the protest movement vanished from the headlines. A part of the world that seemed on the verge of grass-roots-generated change now looks as if it’s back to business as usual.

Vanished from which headlines? Perhaps those of newspapers who are under the delusion that all is "back to business as usual" in Iran?

1850 GMT: The Convictions So Far. Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reports that five people have been sentenced to death and 81 have received jail terms of up to 15 years in connection with post-election protests.



1840 GMT: The Iranian Parliament has confirmed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s nominees for the Ministries of Welfare and Social Security (Sadegh Mahsuli), Education (Hamid-Reza Haji Babai), and Power (Majid Namjoo).

The votes complete Ahmadinejad's Cabinet; the Parliament rejected his original appointees for the three ministries last month.

1810 GMT: New Trials. Back from an afternoon of teaching to catch up with today's trials of French student Clotilde Reiss and Iranian economist and journalist Saeed Laylaz. Al Jazeera has a video report.

1315 GMT: Widening Engagement. We've said for months that the US need for support in Afghanistan was one factor propelling the extension of the "unclenched fist" to Tehran. We have even suggested that there were quiet, back-channel talks between the US and Iran on the matter.

So this statement from Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, speaking in New Delhi: "In responding to the current Obama and US administration messages asking Iran's help in dealing with the problem in Afghanistan, we have defined the new approach....We are hopeful of taking some steps in this regard."

1125 GMT: The Death of the Prison Doctor. Another revelation in the case of Ramin Pourandarjan, the 26-year-old physician at Kahrizak Prison, who supposedly died of a heart attack or stroke (see yesterday's updates). Shortly before he died, Pourandarjan had told a Parliamentary committee of abuses of detainees at Kahrizak.

1120 GMT: We've posted video of the Tehran University demonstration protesting the 11 November execution of Ehsan Fattahian.

1055 GMT: More Leaking & Sabotage. Now I can't keep up. The Times of London benefits from a leak with a different slant: "UN nuclear chief in secret talks with Iran over deal to end sanctions".

The mission of IAEA head Mohammad El Baradei for a compromise agreement isn't exactly "secret", since we have revealed --- from the very non-secret Press TV --- that El Baradei was proposing Turkey as the third country in an Iran-Russia uranium enrichment plan and that the Iranian establishment is split over the suggestion. What makes The Times story distinctive is that the newspaper was handed a 13-page IAEA document outlining El Baradei's approach. In addition to the third-party enrichment scheme, Iran would also be a participant in a globally-managed nuclear fuel bank.

And who else has put forward that notion of a nuclear fuel bank? Step up, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

1050 GMT: Counter-Spin. And in the opposition corner from The New York Times on the IAEA report on Iran, it's the Iranian Ambassador to the IAEA, Ali-Asghar Soltanieh:

The latest report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Mohamed ElBaradei proved that political hype and propaganda about Fordo plant were baseless. The report confirmed that no centrifuges had been introduced into the facility and that no nuclear material had been used in it.

1035 GMT: And from Montazeri: Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, has replied to a letter from the mother of a detained senior member of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front:

The situation which has happened for the country is very regretful.....Calling peaceful demonstration of people a 'riot' does not solve anything. There is only one acceptable legal solution and that is returning from the path of mistake and making up for it. Freeing the political prisoners is the first step that the officials must do immediately and even preventing the freedom of innocent people for one hour is a major sin.

1025 GMT: And With Sane'i.... Grand Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i told members of the Islamic Association of Art School on Sunday:

The increase and exacerbation of problems does not point to the domination and rule of oppression but rather is a sign of weakness....Be certain the efforts and suffering of the people, especially the academics, will be fruitful....Lying is the characteristic of oppressors, when they see they are losing ground they turn to lying and rely on lies....Increased pressure is a sign of weakness; arresting, imprisoning, and torturing are signs of weakness.

1010 GMT: Catching Up With Karroubi.... Mehdi Karroubi visited Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, who suffered a heart attack last month, in hospital yesterday. Before his illness, Bayat-Zanjani had been a strident critic of the Ahmadinejad Government.

Earlier Karroubi had spoken to reformist members of Parliament, advising youth to "avoid the violent acts which is what certain movements would want to happen....Don’t let some sick individuals provoke people to radical behaviours and as always keep rationality and humanity as the role model for the Green movement."

0925 GMT: Whipping Up the Fear. Following our updates yesterday on the initial exaggerations of the IAEA's report on Iran's nuclear programmes, we have a snap analysis of the misleading media coverage, fed by sources trying to "break" the talks with Tehran, drawing on this morning's treatment in The New York Times.

USA Today drops by to offer us further evidence: "U.N. report: Iran nuke site apt for bombs, not power".

0915 GMT: The Public Finger-Wagging. The Obama Administration's engagement strategy depends on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad overcoming domestic opposition to a nuclear deal, and Obama has to keep his own opposition at bay. So the US President issued a boiler-plate warning this morning during his press conference with Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao: "Iran has an opportunity to present and demonstrate its peaceful intentions, but if it fails to take this opportunity, there will be consequences."

0900 GMT: We're back in place after an excellent seminar in Dublin in "Blogging in Iran" with our partners at the Clinton Institute, University College Dublin. To mark the occasion (and match the headline), we've posted what we hope will be an important evaluation --- based on inside information and open sources --- of the Obama Administration's current policy on Iran.

We're also following the latest developments surrounding Iran's nuclear programme, building on the text of the International Atomic Energy Agency's report on Iranian facilities.