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Entries in Iran (101)

Wednesday
Oct142009

UPDATED Iran-US-Russia Deal on Enrichment, The Sequel

UPDATED Iran: The Washington-Tehran Deal on Enriched Uranium?

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IRAN NUKES

UPDATE 15 October 0835 GMT: Finally! An unnamed journalist picks up on the third-party enrichment story at yesterday's State Department briefing by Philip Crowley:

QUESTION: The meeting coming up, the technical talks in Vienna about the low-enriched uranium – who is the U.S. sending, and how far do you expect to get in those meetings? What’s the sort of agenda and hopes for an outcome?

MR. CROWLEY: Well, it’s – we haven’t decided. Those arrangements are still being worked as to what the representation will be....These are technical talks, really, to work through the practical issues of how to ship the fuel out of Iran, and then provide the fuel that – for this research reactor....

QUESTION: But your understanding is that the Iranians are going forward with this, you know, a hundred percent. [Are the talks] actually just about implementing it right now, or is [the meeting] about in theory how it would work?

MR. CROWLEY: ...This is a confidence-building measure. There is the research reactor. It’s running out of fuel. And we think there’s a mechanism that can be put in place so that we can see that the shipment out of some of the existing Iranian stocks and then fuel for this particular reactor provided. I mean, it really is about working through the technical aspects of this. And...we believe that the meeting will go forward on October 19, and we’re working through the appropriate representation.


UPDATE 15 October 0730 GMT: The Hole in the Middle. Michael Slackman of The New York Times has a good but ultimately curious article this morning. In "Some See Iran as Ready for Nuclear Deal", he quotes analysts such as Trita Parsi, Flynt Leverett, and Juan Cole, as well as past statements from top Iran officials, to build his case.

The curiosity? Slackman never mentions the "third-party enrichment" proposal that proves his point.


UPDATE 1855 GMT: If you're clued up on the real story, then this statement by Vladimir Putin, former President and now Prime Minister of Russia, makes sense: "There is no need to frighten the Iranians. There is a need to reach agreements; there is a need to search for compromises." Stay the course on the ongoing, quieter discussions on third-party enrichment and Iran's second enrichment facility near Qom.

If you're not clued, then you're the ideal receptive audience for Press TV's spin on Putin's statement --- The Russians Are With Us Against the "West" --- "Putin Warns against Intimidation".

The story so far: last weekend we picked up on a scoop by Glenn Kessler of The Washington Post that, for four months, the US had been developing a plan for "third-party enrichment" by Russia of 80 percent of Iran's stock of low-enriched uranium. The processed uranium, now at 20% enrichment, would be used in Iran's medical research facilities. The proposal was presented to Iran before the Geneva talks at the start of October, and Tehran has accepted it as a basis for discussions.

We noted that, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was in Moscow this week, the proposal was likely to be at the forefront of US-Russian talks on Iran. After all, the technical talks on enrichment between Iran and the 5+1 powers (US, UK, France, Russia, China, Germany) are next Monday. At the same time we wondered if the media, dazzled by the surface issue of sanctions, would take any notice.

Well, Clinton has had her meetings with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and no one --- as far as we know --- figured out the real diplomatic game, as opposed to the diversionary one.

During the midst of Clinton's talks yesterday, news services were so at sea that they were blaring, almost at the same time,"Yes, the Russians Will Support Sanctions; No, the Russians Won't Support Sanctions", without giving a passing thought to enrichment.

Today is no better. The New York Times, still stuck on Lavrov's public posture that sanctions would be "counterproductive", headlines, "Russia Resists U.S. Position on Sanctions for Iran". The Guardian of London swallows the opposite PR line, "Clinton hails US-Russian co-operation on Iran", and the BBC, thrilled to get an interview with Clinton, nods its head as she declares, "Clinton: Russia Sees Iran Threat".

But the top prize for media dizziness goes to Mary Beth Sheridan of The Washington Post, who clearly doesn't read the stories published in her story (or at least those by Glenn Kessler). She expends more than 500 words shouting, "Russia Not Budging On Iran Sanctions". Buried well within them is the single line, "Under heavy international pressure, the Islamic republic agreed to admit inspectors and send much of its uranium to Russia for enrichment," which --- to say the least --- is a hydrogen bomb's distance from the account Kessler gave of the US-Iran talks.

And it is not as if Clinton didn't offer a clue to the real story to anyone sharp enough to listen: "Iran has several obligations that it said it would fulfill. We believe it is important to pursue the diplomatic track and to do everything we can to make it successful."

What are those obligations? "[Iran will] fulfill its obligation on inspections, in fact, open up its entire system so that there can be no doubt about what they're doing, and comply with the agreement in principle to transfer out the low-enriched uranium."

At which point a journalist on his/her game would have said, "Secretary Clinton, can you confirm that the agreement in principle concerns the plan developed since June for Iran to transfer uranium to Russia, enriching it from 3.5 to 20 percent?"

Unfortunately, the journalist who was called on to ask the final question ignored that possibility in favour of the "Oh Yes, The Russians Will. Oh No, The Russians Won't" script:"It sounds like you did not get the commitment from the Russian side in terms of sanctions or other forms of pressure that could be brought to bear on Iran. Could you comment on that?"

And who was that journalist? Take a bow, Mary Beth Sheridan of The Washington Post.
Wednesday
Oct142009

The Latest from Iran (14 October): Watching Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and the Supreme Leader's Health

NEW Iran-US-Russia Deal on Enrichment, The Sequel
Latest Iran Video: Selling Ahmadinejad's Economic Plan (13 October)
Iran: Tehran’s Growing Confidence Against the Israeli Threat

Iran: Rafsanjani Statement on “False News” (13 October)
Latest Iran Video: The Shiraz Protest Against Ahmadinejad (12 October)
Video: Protest at Tehran Azad University (13 October)
The Latest from Iran (13 October): Government Threatens Karroubi

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IRAN 3 NOV DEMOS 32025 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has issued a thinly-veiled challenge to the Revolutionary Guard through another statement. Focusing on the abuses of the armed forces, he declares, "Some think that because they have guns they should exercise the power of their guns and use it everywhere. In any society that wants to be obedient, its armed forces should not be cruel but rather be compassionate and merciful."

2000 GMT: Remember how we started this morning with a letter from Hashemi Rafsanjani, criticising and warning about "false news" to discredit him? Well, consider this from Javan Online, a publication closely linked with the Revolutionary Guard, as reported by Tabnak:
"Since the inauguration of the 10th administration, I believe in its legitimacy. Presently Mr. [Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad attends the Expediency Council meetings as president, with invitations signed by myself," Rafsanjani said in a meeting with Iranian political figures in favor of the national unity plan.

It's not surprising that Javan would put this story, whether or not it is accurate. What is surprising is that, in light of Rafsanjani's warning that the only reliable news about him would come either from his website or the offices of the Expediency Council, an important website like Tehran Bureau would reprint Javan's claim without reflection.

1850 GMT: Amidst a quiet domestic news day, we've picked up on the international story missed by most of the media, "Iran-US-Russia Deal on Enrichment, The Sequel".

1500 GMT: The Facebook page associated with Mir Hossein Mousavi has responded to the Government threats to take Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to court with the reminder, "In case of the arrest of any of the Green movement’s leaders, we will take to the streets from 'Revolution' to 'Freedom' Square. The network [will use] media mobilization (SMS, email, flyer, wall notices, posters, Internet) for raising widespread awareness until the emergence of the Green army . (English summary via Iran News Digest)

1250 GMT: Amidst a lull in political developments, and as part of our increasing attention to the economic context, we've posted a two-part video from Press TV examining (and ultimately selling) President Ahmadinejad's economic proposals.

0805 GMT: We've posted what I think may be one of the most revealing analyses from within Iran, written by Dr Mahmoud Reza Golshanpazhooh, on the country's international position, "Tehran’s Growing Confidence Against the Israeli Threat".

0655 GMT: According to Peykeiran, a fifth death sentence over post-election conflict and "subversion" has been handed out to a "Davoud Mir Ardebili". The report claims that Ardebili is not a monarchist, the allegation made against three other condemned men, but merely called a radio station to report union protests.

0650 GMT: Today's Puffing of the Chest. Brigadier General Hussein Salami, the deputy commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps says,"Unlike the wrong conception of the enemies, Iran is strong and invincible."

No further comment or meat-related jokes necessary.

0640 GMT: Watching the Economy. Press TV's website has a must-read story betraying nervousness over both Iran's economic situation and the politics around the headline measure, Ahmadinjead's proposed subsidy reform.

The story begins with apparent good news, with a fall in the annual inflation rate from 20.2 percent to 18.5 percent. However, the headline also notes, "Jobless Rate Soars", rising to 11.3 percent from 10.2 percent over the summer.

And here's the stinger of the piece: "Economists fear that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's subsidy reform plan, which aims to gradually cut energy and food subsidies, will hike up inflation. The Iranian parliament has approved the outline of the bill, but lawmakers are still at odds over the details of the plan."

Our initial reading of the push for subsidy cuts, with the impulse being the worsening budget situation of the Iran Government, was too narrow. There are good structural reasons to reform the system, though I am uncertain how much these factor into Ahmadinejad's calculations. Far more significant --- and provocative --- is the President's political scheme, taking some of the money saved from the cuts and distributing it to Iran's poorest people.

0620 GMT: Our starting point today will be a close eye on the next steps of two key figures, Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mehdi Karroubi.

Rafsanjani surfaced yesterday to publish a letter via Iranian Labor News Agency, denying "false news" of a letter that he and Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi-Kani supposedly sent to Mir Hossein Mousavi on 28 September. We think this is a reference to the claimed "National Unity Plan", "revealed" by Fars News that day. At this point, however, Rafsanjani's step is a defensive move, fending off pressure from the Government and media who oppose him, rather than a major political step. We have an analysis and English translation of the letter in a separate entry.

The situation around Mehdi Karroubi is more dramatic. The Government threat to prosecute him, issued yesterday by two high-level officials, is a clear response --- showing nervousness as well as supposed strength --- to the resurgence of Karroubi's public statements, especially his Saturday meeting with Mir Hossein Mousavi.

So, to be blunt, we're wondering, "Does Karroubi back down?", and we're thinking, "No." His response to the Government's ham-fisted warning, which following similar threats over the last two months --- may not come today, but I would look for a clear signal from the cleric by the weekend.

Meanwhile, a brief article in Peiknet has stoked the fire of rumours about the poor state of the Supreme Leader's health. The website claims that three doctors were summoned urgently to Ayatollah Khamenei's house and, after examining him, insisted that he cancel all public and Government meetings and stay at home, with only his family seeing him. To our knowledge, no other source has corroborated the Peiknet assertion.

Rumors that the Supreme Leader has cancer, specifically prostate cancer, have persisted for years --- our readers have discussed these in comments. For now, we'll keep watch, especially to see if Khamenei stays out of public view.
Wednesday
Oct142009

Iran: The Latest on Mehdi Karroubi

Iran: Karroubi Responds to Government Threats “Bring. It. On.”
The Latest from Iran (14 October): Watching Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and the Supreme Leader’s Health
The Latest from Iran (13 October): Government Threatens Karroubi

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KARROUBI3From an Enduring America correspondent inside Iran:

Karroubi's many offices have all been closed down. The only way to meet him now is to go to his house in a northern neighborhood of Tehran, but this is a problem as well since the house is being watched 24/7 and only immediate family and house workers can go in and out freely. This does not mean that he is under house arrest, but there are some unwritten restrictions in effect.

Karroubi is going to be sued by the government for things that he said with regards to the post-election victims of rape, but this will not put an end to the speculations about the abuses, nor will it end the support that he enjoys from the rest of the Green movement. His moves should be considered in relation to those of others, such as the second letter sent by the Association of Combatant Clerics to the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, warning him not to be ignorant toward the truth about the claims over the Government of President Ahmadinejad.

Karroubi is not a man to give in to threat. The advantage that he has over [Mir Hossein] Mousavi, for example, is that he is a cleric wearing the famous clothing which makes it more difficult to discredit him. Karroubi was the only person that Imam Khomeini trusted with the authority over all his assets and belongings; it is not an easy task to tip over such a trustworthy individual.
Wednesday
Oct142009

Latest Iran Video: Selling Ahmadinejad's Economic Plan (13 October)

The Latest from Iran (14 October): Watching Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and the Supreme Leader’s Health

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As readers may have noted, we are taking an increasing interest in how the economic situation intersects with Iran's post-election crisis and the legitimacy of the Government. Following Monday's Parliamentary vote on President Ahmadinejad's proposal to cut energy and food subsidies, redistributing some of the cost saving to Iran's poorest people, here is Press TV's treatment of the issues:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yl8XASUyNH0[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itM4ApevFoU[/youtube]
Wednesday
Oct142009

Iran: Rafsanjani Statement on "False News" (13 October)

The Latest from Iran (14 October): Watching Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and the Supreme Leader’s Health
The Latest from Iran (13 October): Government Threatens Karroubi

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Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

RAFSANJANIFormer President Hashemi Rafsanjani's latest statement, published by the Iranian Labor News Agency, is brief and --- without further context --- somewhat vague.

The key reference is to an alleged letter from Rafsanjani and Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani from Mir Hossein Mousavi on 28 September. This appears to be a reference to the dramatic revelation by Fars News at the end of September of a supposed "National Unity Plan". In heated debate over subsequent days, it was claimed that this version was at best an early draft and at worst a false document.

It appears that Rafsanjani is trying to kill off any idea that he was associated with this draft initiative. What is unclear --- because Rafsanjani makes no reference to it --- is whether he associates himself with a second, different "National Unity Plan" that emerged a week later. Therefore, this appears to be a "hold-the-line" letter, holding off Government pressure on Rafsanjani through rumors and deceptions, rather than a political move.

The translation is by Persian2English:

Unfortunately, in the past few weeks, and following the sixth session of the Assembly of Experts, this trend [of mis-information] has intensified. Some media and supporting sites with politically motivated intentions have attempted to publish false news regarding some meetings that have taken place, and even mentioning meetings that have never taken place.

There are also quotes attributed to specific people; some that are true and others false. Of course, they base their political analysis on rumors and create side issues in order to achieve their political goals.

The quotes are a mix of true-and-false. There are also incomplete and selective statements regarding private meetings of the head of the Assembly of Experts with the members of this assembly; and the meeting between subcommittee of the fundamentalist clergies in parliament and Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani. There are other articles quoting “informed sources” where even the people interviewed have expressed regret and surprise by the way their words have been misquoted. Some have even been forced to deny their statements.

This is outside the law. Ethics and manners are expected of the media. They take place in an atmosphere where most news about Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani that is officially published is partially or completely censored by the newspaper.

The news published on the first page of the official government newspaper, “Iran” on September 28, 2009, titled “Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mahdavi Kani’s messages to Mir Hossein Mousavi” is an example of false news lacking any validity. It is not clear what their purpose is of printing false news. It is not even clear if they have good intentions. They can quote my statements in Friday Prayers insisting that everything by all sides be done according to law.

I have insisted on this many times; and instead of faking the news, they can print this statement.

Misquoting me regarding the presidential election, or publishing opinions of my relatives are both examples of false news reporting. Their supporting chain media immediately follows up on the false news and creates a huge side issue.

In order to calm the public who asks a lot of questions regarding this matter and respected media (and I hope this includes all the supporting media), we are officially declaring that quoting anyone but Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, or printing selective statements, lacks any credibility and validity

The only valid statements come directly from the office of Hashemi Rafsnajani and the public relations office of the Expediency Council. The statements are published to the public.

Mohammad Hashemi